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Electoral projections for the 2019 federal elections

Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2019


8 octobre 2019 tooclosetocall.ca
% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Atlantic 28.9 42.3 10.9 14.8 - 2.6
Quebec 18.5 34.6 10.2 7.4 24.7 2.1
Ontario 34.2 38.8 14.1 9.8 - 2.2
Prairies 47.6 25.7 14.8 8.2 - 3.2
Alberta 57.2 21.6 11.5 5.5 - 3.9
BC 30.8 31.9 16.9 16.1 - 3.0
Canada* 34.0 34.1 13.1 9.9 5.1 2.7

Seats/Sièges
Atlantic 7 24 1 0 0
Quebec 13 42 2 0 20 1
Ontario 44 66 11 0 0
Prairies 21 6 1 0 0
Alberta 32 2 0 0 0
BC 17 14 6 5 0 0
Territories 0 3 0 0 0

Canada 134 157 21 5 20 1 0

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.


Avalon 26% 48% 9% 14% 3%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 21% 66% 1% 12% 2%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 29% 59% 0% 12% 2%
NFL

Labrador 24% 56% 8% 12% 2%


Long Range Mountains 23% 58% 5% 14% 2%
St. John's East 18% 33% 36% 13% 3%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl 16% 44% 28% 13% 2%
Cardigan 27% 50% 4% 18% 2%
Charlottetown 26% 41% 16% 18% 3%
PEI
PEI Egmont 39% 34% 12% 14% 3%
Malpeque 28% 47% 4% 21% 2%
Cape Breton--Canso 26% 57% 2% 15% 2%
Central Nova 37% 44% 4% 16% 3%
Cumberland--Colchester 37% 48% 0% 15% 3%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 25% 43% 17% 15% 3%
Halifax 20% 37% 27% 15% 3%
NS

Halifax West 26% 53% 5% 15% 2%


Kings--Hants 29% 56% 0% 15% 2%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 26% 33% 26% 15% 3%
South Shore--St. Margarets 33% 42% 10% 15% 3%
Sydney--Victoria 23% 56% 7% 15% 2%
West Nova 36% 48% 0% 16% 3%
Acadie--Bathurst 19% 36% 30% 14% 3%
Beauséjour 22% 54% 8% 16% 2%
Fredericton 39% 34% 3% 24% 3%
Fundy Royal 48% 26% 11% 16% 4%
Madawaska--Restigouche 27% 41% 18% 14% 3%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 45% 32% 9% 15% 3%


Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 32% 42% 9% 16% 3%
New Brunswick Southwest 49% 29% 6% 17% 4%
Saint John--Rothesay 41% 33% 11% 15% 3%
Tobique--Mactaquac 47% 31% 5% 17% 3%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 12% 34% 20% 8% 24% 2%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 10% 30% 25% 7% 26% 2%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 10% 47% 16% 7% 19% 2%
Alfred-Pellan 14% 46% 6% 8% 25% 2%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 14% 43% 9% 8% 25% 2%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 9% 39% 8% 6% 37% 2%
Beauce 30% 21% 0% 7% 13% 31%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
34% 26% 6% 7% 24% 3%
Beauport--Limoilou 33% 26% 9% 8% 21% 4%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 14% 23% 6% 7% 47% 2%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 51% 20% 0% 8% 17% 3%
Beloeil--Chambly 11% 27% 14% 7% 38% 2%
Berthier--Maskinongé 13% 16% 33% 7% 29% 2%
Bourassa 12% 55% 0% 8% 23% 2%
Brome--Missisquoi 14% 43% 9% 8% 25% 2%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 15% 49% 9% 7% 18% 2%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 44% 23% 3% 8% 19% 3%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 13% 38% 8% 7% 31% 2%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 44% 30% 2% 7% 14% 2%
Compton--Stanstead 15% 36% 12% 7% 28% 2%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 13% 52% 9% 7% 17% 2%
Drummond 20% 26% 13% 8% 31% 2%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 8% 38% 20% 6% 26% 2%
Gatineau 11% 54% 11% 7% 15% 2%
Hochelaga 10% 30% 15% 9% 34% 2%
Honoré-Mercier 14% 57% 2% 7% 18% 2%
Hull--Aylmer 10% 52% 16% 7% 12% 2%
Joliette 13% 29% 7% 8% 41% 2%
Jonquière 28% 25% 12% 7% 26% 2%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 11% 28% 12% 7% 39% 2%
La Prairie 14% 36% 8% 7% 33% 2%
Lac-Saint-Jean 31% 24% 12% 7% 23% 3%
Lac-Saint-Louis 19% 61% 0% 8% 11% 2%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 9% 42% 16% 8% 24% 2%
Laurentides--Labelle 13% 33% 8% 8% 37% 2%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 7% 34% 18% 9% 29% 3%
Laval--Les Îles 21% 49% 1% 7% 19% 2%
Lévis--Lotbinière 51% 21% 0% 7% 17% 3%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 12% 35% 9% 8% 34% 2%
QC

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 11% 30% 6% 17% 35% 2%


Louis-Hébert 30% 35% 4% 8% 21% 3%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 52% 21% 0% 7% 16% 3%
Manicouagan 13% 30% 0% 7% 47% 2%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 15% 42% 5% 7% 29% 2%
Mégantic--L'Érable 38% 28% 5% 8% 19% 3%
Mirabel 13% 26% 12% 8% 39% 2%
Montarville 13% 32% 9% 8% 35% 3%
Montcalm 13% 28% 5% 7% 45% 2%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
30% 27% 12% 7% 21% 3%
Mount Royal 36% 46% 0% 6% 9% 3%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 16% 55% 9% 8% 10% 2%
Outremont 12% 33% 27% 9% 17% 2%
Papineau 7% 53% 12% 8% 18% 1%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 12% 27% 9% 14% 35% 2%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 21% 56% 4% 6% 11% 2%
Pontiac 17% 55% 7% 7% 13% 2%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 46% 21% 5% 7% 17% 3%
Québec 24% 29% 10% 8% 25% 2%
Repentigny 14% 28% 5% 8% 43% 2%
Richmond--Arthabaska 33% 24% 9% 7% 25% 3%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
13% 27% 19% 7% 32% 2%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 13% 36% 11% 8% 29% 2%
Rivière-du-Nord 11% 27% 12% 8% 40% 2%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 7% 21% 34% 9% 27% 2%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 19% 27% 12% 8% 32% 2%
Saint-Jean 13% 32% 14% 7% 32% 2%
Saint-Laurent 20% 58% 0% 7% 12% 2%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 13% 65% 0% 7% 13% 2%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 18% 41% 5% 7% 27% 2%
Salaberry--Suroît 12% 29% 14% 7% 36% 2%
Shefford 15% 38% 8% 8% 30% 2%
Sherbrooke 12% 29% 21% 7% 29% 2%
Terrebonne 14% 28% 7% 7% 40% 2%
Thérèse-De Blainville 15% 33% 7% 8% 34% 3%
Trois-Rivières 21% 30% 15% 7% 25% 3%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 16% 46% 7% 7% 22% 2%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 14% 48% 10% 10% 16% 2%
Vimy 16% 48% 2% 8% 24% 2%
Ajax 34% 50% 6% 8% 2%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 24% 28% 38% 8% 2%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 44% 42% 3% 8% 2%
Barrie--Innisfil 46% 30% 10% 12% 2%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 41% 35% 8% 13% 3%
Bay of Quinte 34% 45% 10% 10% 2%
Beaches--East York 16% 44% 28% 10% 2%
Brampton Centre 33% 44% 13% 8% 2%
Brampton East 23% 47% 21% 7% 2%
Brampton North 32% 43% 14% 8% 2%
Brampton South 34% 47% 9% 8% 2%
Brampton West 29% 51% 10% 7% 2%
Brantford--Brant 41% 25% 22% 9% 3%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 43% 34% 9% 12% 2%
Burlington 41% 40% 7% 10% 2%
Cambridge 38% 37% 12% 11% 2%
Carleton 45% 37% 4% 12% 2%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 39% 35% 17% 7% 2%
Davenport 13% 43% 31% 11% 2%
Don Valley East 28% 52% 8% 10% 2%
Don Valley North 37% 46% 6% 10% 2%
Don Valley West 37% 48% 3% 9% 3%
Dufferin--Caledon 43% 34% 5% 16% 2%
Durham 44% 29% 14% 10% 2%
Eglinton--Lawrence 41% 43% 4% 9% 3%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 50% 27% 14% 7% 2%
Essex 36% 16% 39% 6% 2%
Etobicoke Centre 36% 47% 5% 9% 2%
Etobicoke North 22% 57% 10% 9% 2%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 31% 48% 8% 10% 2%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 43% 34% 11% 10% 2%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 35% 47% 6% 10% 2%
Guelph 26% 43% 10% 19% 2%
Haldimand--Norfolk 45% 33% 12% 8% 2%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 44% 25% 17% 12% 2%
Hamilton Centre 16% 30% 40% 12% 3%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 25% 34% 30% 9% 2%
Hamilton Mountain 26% 28% 33% 9% 4%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 31% 42% 14% 11% 2%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 41% 36% 11% 11% 2%
Humber River--Black Creek 20% 61% 8% 9% 2%
Huron--Bruce 44% 33% 11% 10% 2%
Kanata--Carleton 38% 44% 5% 11% 2%
Kenora 29% 30% 32% 7% 2%
Kingston and the Islands 22% 49% 15% 12% 2%
King--Vaughan 43% 42% 5% 8% 2%
Kitchener Centre 29% 43% 14% 11% 3%
Kitchener South--Hespeler 35% 36% 13% 12% 4%
Kitchener--Conestoga 42% 36% 8% 11% 3%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 48% 26% 16% 8% 2%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 47% 27% 12% 11% 3%
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau46%
Lakes 34% 6% 11% 2%
London North Centre 31% 47% 13% 8% 2%
London West 35% 42% 13% 7% 3%
London--Fanshawe 29% 29% 32% 8% 2%
Markham--Stouffville 35% 36% 0% 8% 2% 19%
Markham--Thornhill 32% 50% 8% 8% 2%
Markham--Unionville 48% 37% 3% 9% 2%
Milton 44% 34% 9% 10% 3%
Mississauga Centre 33% 50% 7% 8% 2%
Ont.

Mississauga East--Cooksville 35% 49% 7% 7% 2%


Mississauga--Erin Mills 38% 45% 7% 8% 2%
Mississauga--Lakeshore 40% 43% 6% 8% 3%
Mississauga--Malton 26% 54% 10% 8% 2%
Mississauga--Streetsville 40% 43% 7% 8% 2%
Nepean 35% 46% 6% 11% 2%
Newmarket--Aurora 42% 40% 6% 10% 2%
Niagara Centre 29% 30% 29% 9% 2%
Niagara Falls 38% 30% 19% 10% 2%
Niagara West 49% 28% 9% 10% 4%
Nickel Belt 17% 37% 36% 8% 2%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 29% 47% 14% 8% 2%
Northumberland--Peterborough South 39% 36% 13% 11% 2%
Oakville 41% 43% 4% 10% 2%
Oakville North--Burlington 42% 41% 5% 10% 3%
Orléans 30% 53% 6% 10% 2%
Oshawa 37% 22% 29% 10% 2%
Ottawa Centre 15% 43% 28% 12% 3%
Ottawa South 24% 53% 9% 12% 2%
Ottawa West--Nepean 29% 50% 8% 12% 2%
Ottawa--Vanier 18% 51% 17% 12% 3%
Oxford 47% 28% 15% 8% 2%
Parkdale--High Park 13% 37% 37% 11% 3%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 41% 35% 8% 14% 2%
Perth--Wellington 43% 31% 13% 11% 2%
Peterborough--Kawartha 34% 37% 16% 10% 2%
Pickering--Uxbridge 37% 45% 7% 9% 2%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 50% 29% 7% 11% 2%
Richmond Hill 42% 41% 6% 9% 2%
Sarnia--Lambton 39% 23% 29% 7% 2%
Sault Ste. Marie 31% 39% 19% 8% 2%
Scarborough Centre 32% 45% 9% 10% 5%
Scarborough North 27% 43% 19% 9% 2%
Scarborough Southwest 21% 47% 21% 10% 2%
Scarborough--Agincourt 37% 46% 5% 9% 2%
Scarborough--Guildwood 26% 54% 9% 9% 2%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 27% 54% 8% 10% 2%
Simcoe North 44% 33% 8% 13% 2%
Simcoe--Grey 46% 32% 7% 12% 2%
Spadina--Fort York 15% 49% 24% 10% 2%
St. Catharines 37% 38% 14% 9% 2%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 47% 34% 6% 11% 2%
Sudbury 21% 42% 26% 9% 2%
Thornhill 58% 29% 3% 7% 3%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 21% 38% 27% 11% 2%
Thunder Bay--Superior North 18% 40% 21% 20% 2%
Timmins--James Bay 21% 29% 41% 8% 2%
Toronto Centre 12% 52% 24% 10% 2%
Toronto--Danforth 10% 38% 38% 13% 2%
Toronto--St. Paul's 26% 49% 12% 11% 2%
University--Rosedale 17% 44% 26% 11% 2%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 43% 44% 3% 7% 3%
Waterloo 31% 44% 13% 11% 2%
Wellington--Halton Hills 49% 30% 6% 12% 2%
Whitby 41% 39% 8% 9% 2%
Willowdale 36% 48% 4% 10% 2%
Windsor West 21% 21% 49% 7% 2%
Windsor--Tecumseh 28% 22% 42% 6% 2%
York Centre 42% 41% 5% 9% 2%
York South--Weston 19% 40% 27% 10% 4%
York--Simcoe 49% 31% 7% 11% 2%
Brandon--Souris 58% 28% -1% 11% 3%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
44% 35% 9% 9% 3%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 18% 33% 39% 7% 3%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 59% 22% 6% 10% 3%
Elmwood--Transcona 39% 16% 33% 9% 3%
Kildonan--St. Paul 47% 36% 8% 7% 3%
Portage--Lisgar 71% 17% -1% 10% 3%
Man.

Provencher 64% 26% -2% 9% 3%


Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 34% 42% 13% 8% 3%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 60% 23% 5% 9% 3%
Winnipeg Centre 17% 36% 34% 10% 3%
Winnipeg North 21% 52% 16% 9% 3%
Winnipeg South 40% 41% 8% 8% 3%
Winnipeg South Centre 33% 43% 12% 9% 3%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 66% 11% 13% 6% 3%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 71% 10% 8% 7% 4%
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 34% 28% 29% 6% 3%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek 68% 9% 13% 7% 3%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 59% 12% 18% 7% 3%
Prince Albert 54% 14% 23% 6% 3%
Regina--Lewvan 38% 21% 30% 8% 3%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 47% 16% 25% 8% 3%


Regina--Wascana 33% 50% 7% 8% 3%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 44% 20% 25% 8% 3%
Saskatoon--University 44% 19% 26% 8% 3%
Saskatoon West 36% 18% 35% 8% 3%
Souris--Moose Mountain 73% 8% 8% 7% 3%
Yorkton--Melville 63% 12% 15% 7% 3%
Banff--Airdrie 60% 24% 7% 6% 3%
Battle River--Crowfoot 76% 8% 7% 6% 4%
Bow River 75% 12% 5% 4% 3%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 43% 42% 6% 6% 3%
Calgary Confederation 43% 39% 7% 7% 3%
Calgary Forest Lawn 46% 32% 10% 7% 5%
Calgary Heritage 61% 22% 7% 6% 4%
Calgary Midnapore 63% 19% 8% 7% 3%
Calgary Nose Hill 57% 23% 9% 7% 5%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 57% 28% 6% 6% 3%
Calgary Shepard 62% 21% 7% 7% 3%
Calgary Signal Hill 57% 27% 5% 7% 4%
Calgary Skyview 39% 43% 8% 6% 3%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 33% 34% 24% 5% 4%
Edmonton Griesbach 38% 19% 33% 5% 5%
Edmonton Manning 44% 25% 23% 5% 4%
Edmonton Mill Woods 40% 38% 13% 5% 4%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 48% 27% 17% 5% 4%


Edmonton Strathcona 31% 29% 29% 5% 5%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 47% 32% 13% 4% 4%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 63% 19% 10% 5% 4%
Foothills 73% 11% 6% 6% 4%
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 58% 26% 8% 4% 4%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 70% 12% 8% 6% 4%
Lakeland 69% 12% 10% 5% 4%
Lethbridge 55% 16% 20% 5% 4%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 66% 16% 10% 5% 3%
Peace River--Westlock 66% 11% 14% 5% 4%
Red Deer--Mountain View 71% 11% 8% 5% 4%
Red Deer--Lacombe 67% 13% 11% 5% 3%
St. Albert--Edmonton 53% 25% 13% 5% 4%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 63% 18% 10% 5% 4%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 68% 13% 10% 6% 3%
Yellowhead 69% 12% 9% 5% 5%
Abbotsford 49% 30% 6% 12% 3%
Burnaby North--Seymour 41% 27% 19% 12%
Burnaby South 23% 25% 31% 11% 9%
Cariboo--Prince George 39% 29% 18% 10% 3%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 41% 34% 11% 11% 3%
Chilliwack--Hope 44% 31% 10% 11% 4%
Cloverdale--Langley City 36% 42% 6% 12% 3%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 34% 32% 18% 12% 5%
Courtenay--Alberni 30% 20% 26% 22% 3%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 25% 22% 24% 27% 3%
Delta 34% 46% 6% 12% 3%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 19% 25% 24% 30% 2%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 31% 43% 12% 11% 3%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 39% 29% 19% 11% 3%
Kelowna--Lake Country 41% 43% 6% 7% 3%
Kootenay--Columbia 39% 17% 27% 14% 3%
Langley--Aldergrove 44% 35% 3% 13% 4%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 37% 35% 13% 12% 3%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 24% 16% 19% 39% 2%
New Westminster--Burnaby 23% 27% 31% 14% 5%
North Island--Powell River 28% 23% 28% 18% 3%
BC

North Okanagan--Shuswap 41% 27% 18% 12% 3%


BC North Vancouver 28% 53% 0% 16% 2%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 33% 31% 20% 13% 3%
Port Moody--Coquitlam 32% 29% 25% 12% 3%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
54% 22% 8% 12% 4%
Richmond Centre 46% 38% 2% 11% 3%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 21% 14% 0% 63% 2%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 29% 18% 38% 12% 3%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay 32% 26% 27% 11% 3%
South Surrey--White Rock 43% 40% 1% 12% 4%
Steveston--Richmond East 40% 42% 3% 12% 3%
Surrey Centre 22% 43% 21% 12% 2%
Surrey--Newton 18% 53% 17% 11% 2%
Vancouver Centre 18% 53% 12% 14% 3%
Vancouver East 12% 28% 39% 18% 2%
Vancouver Granville 16% 31% 9% 11% 2% 31%
Vancouver Kingsway 23% 27% 35% 12% 4%
Vancouver Quadra 26% 56% 3% 12% 2%
Vancouver South 34% 46% 6% 11% 3%
Victoria 14% 25% 21% 38% 3%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky28%
Country52% 1% 17% 2%
Yukon 27% 49% 13% 9% 2%
Terr.

Northwest Territories 21% 44% 23% 10% 3%


Nunavut 27% 42% 20% 8% 2%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.
** winning=getting the most seats