19 - fact sheet

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Modelling technological change
Progress in the development of energy technologies will play a key role in implementing cost-effective reductions of greenhouse gases. Innovation and investment in new and renewable energy technology can be stimulated by Government science and technology policies in these areas. Therefore predictions of how the technology and related economics of energy production will change over the next century are needed in order to identify policies that assist developments in energy technologies. Dr Jonathan Köhler, from the Department of Applied Economics at Cambridge, is developing an economic model for climate change analysis, incorporating technological change and the energy sector. He and a team of economists, social and political scientists will consider what drives technological change, and the effects changes in technology have on the economy and climate change over periods of 5 to 100 years. The research team will develop a set of scenarios describing how technology may evolve in future. They will develop a prototype computer model of the economy, incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and technological change on a global scale, which will be able to provide a basis for modelling the economies of Europe, the UK and at local scales. The economic model will enable the interaction between changes in energy technologies, carbon emissions, Government policy and the economy to be considered as part of the Tyndall Centre's integrated assessment of climate change. The results will assist the identification of policies that steer developments in new and renewable energy sources in directions favourable to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Changes in energy technologies need to be modelled in order to explore their impacts on the economy and on climate change. Vestas Wind Systems A/S More information Contact the lead investigator of Project IT1.19 (Technology and the economy-energy system in an integrated assessment of climate change): Dr Jonathan Köhler Department of Applied Economics University of Cambridge, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 9DE, UK Phone: +44 (0) 1223 33 5289; Fax: +44 (0) 1223 33 5299 Email: Other researchers involved in this project are: Dr Terry Barker, Dr Chris Hope and Dr Haoran Pan, University of Cambridge Dr Frans Berkhout, SPRU, University of Sussex Professor Ken Green, Dr Paul Dewick and Dr Marcela Miozzo, Manchester School of Management, UMIST Project duration: March 2001 to May 2002 Useful web sites: The Tyndall Centre: University of Cambridge Department of Applied Economics: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs: policies to tackle climate change - IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios:

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