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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Canada
Federal Voting Intentions
10th October 2019
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of With 20 years of political experience in all three
a survey conducted between October 7th to 9th, levels of government, President and CEO Quito
2019 among a sample of 2309 adults, 18 years Maggi is a respected commentator on international
of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was public affairs.
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is Research has provided accurate snapshots of
intended to represent the voting population of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
Canada. government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
and was sponsored by iPolitics and Groupe accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
Capitales Médias. was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
The sampling frame was derived from both is a member of the World Association for Public
a national telephone directory compiled by Opinion Research and meets international and
Mainstreet Research from various commerically Canadian publication standards.
available sources and random digit dialing. The
part of the survey that dialed from the directory was CONTACT INFORMATION
conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian In Ottawa:
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, Quito Maggi, President
respondents were asked the additional question quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
of what region of the country they resided in.
In Toronto:
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.04% and is Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
accurate 19 times out of 20. joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

(full methodology appears at the end of this Find us online at:


report) www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
NDP GET POST-DEBATE BOUNCE: CPC 32%, LPC 30%, NDP 15%, GREEN 10%

10th October (Ottawa, ON) – Public support for the New Democratic Party has increased in
the wake of Jagmeet Singh’s performance in Monday’s English leaders’ debate.

Those are the findings of a Mainstreet Research/iPolitics/Groupe Capitales Médias poll,


which surveyed 2309 Canadians from October 7th to 9th. The survey has a margin of error of
+/- 2% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“Both the Conservatives and the Liberals have been in decline for the last seven days in our
daily tracker, and the beneficiaries have been the NDP and the Bloc in Quebec,” said Quito
Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “This remains a very close election with
Canadians seemingly disillusioned with both Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives with Andrew Scheer at the helm have
32.2% (-1.8% since Mainstreet’s last public release at the beginning of the election), while the
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 30.2% (-7.3%). The NDP with Jagmeet Singh as leader
has 15.1% (+6.7%) and the Green Party led by Elizabeth May come in with 9.8% (-1%). The
People’s Party with Maxime Bernier has 4% (-0.6%). The Bloc Quebecois with Yves-Francois
Blanchet as leader has 7.2% nationally but has 30.8% support in Quebec.

“The only thing that is clear is that neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives are going to
win a majority if the election were held today,” continued Maggi. “Not even the regional
breakouts would give a clear indication of who win the most seats, but it is looking more and
more like a minority with the election only 11 days away.”

“The election is entering its final act as Canadians head into the Thanksgiving weekend where
the election will no doubt be a topic of discussion around the dinner table,” concluded Maggi.
“It would not be surprising if this election delivers one final twist before the end.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:


Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
All Voters
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote
for?

8.4%
1.1%
3.6%
27.8%

8.6%

6.8%
All Voters

13.8%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
29.9%

11% 1.6%
4%
Liberals Conservatives
1.2%
9.8% NDP Bloc Québécois Greens
3.5%
People's Party Another Party Undecided
30.2%
34.9%
5.7%
7.2%

3%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
9.1%

15.1%

31.6%
32.2%

Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois

Liberals Conservatives
Greens People's Party NDP Bloc Québécois
Another Party Undecided Greens

People's Party Another Party


Breakout Tables
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Men Women 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 27.8% 25.5% 30.1% 26.2% 24.8% 28.9% 32.4% 18.4% 14.2% 12% 38% 25.9% 33.8%
Conservative, Scheer 29.9% 35.7% 24.3% 21.7% 36.5% 32.3% 29.8% 32% 57.3% 44.9% 28.7% 16.5% 19.2%
NDP, Singh 13.8% 9.8% 17.7% 25% 11.2% 10.4% 5.8% 16.9% 10.7% 23.7% 13.2% 12.7% 10%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 6.8% 7.9% 5.7% 3.1% 6.6% 8.9% 9.4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29.1% 0%
Green, May 8.6% 7.7% 9.5% 10.3% 8% 6.5% 10% 16.7% 3.4% 5.6% 7.3% 4.8% 24.3%
People's Party, Bernier 3.6% 4.8% 2.4% 4.7% 4.5% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 4.4% 4.7% 3.1% 4.3% 2.4%
Another Party 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 1.6% 0.4% 1.4% 1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9%
Undecided 8.4% 7.2% 9.5% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8% 9.5% 11% 8.9% 8.5% 8.5% 6% 9.5%
Unweighted Frequency 2309 1313 996 367 639 712 591 253 205 140 944 595 172
Weighted Frequency 2309 1143 1166 642 578 636 453 315 261 150 885 539 158

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 29.4% 26.9% 31.8% 27.4% 25.5% 31.4% 34.2% 20.3% 14.9% 14.2% 39.8% 27.4% 34.3%
Conservative, Scheer 31.3% 36.9% 25.8% 22.7% 38.7% 33.4% 31.1% 32% 61.4% 47.8% 30.1% 16.8% 21.2%
NDP, Singh 14.7% 10.3% 19.1% 26.6% 12.4% 11.1% 6% 19.7% 10.7% 25.8% 13.8% 13.4% 10.6%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 7.1% 8.1% 6% 3.4% 7% 9.1% 9.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30.3% 0%
Green, May 9.5% 8.4% 10.6% 10.5% 8.9% 7.7% 11.3% 17.8% 3.4% 5.6% 8.7% 5.4% 24.8%
People's Party, Bernier 3.9% 5% 2.7% 5% 4.7% 2.9% 2.4% 3.6% 5.1% 4.7% 3.3% 4.3% 3%
Another Party 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% 2.1% 0.6% 1.9% 1.4% 2.7% 1.7% 0.6% 1.7% 1% 0.9%
Undecided 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 2.5% 4% 3.9% 2.9% 1.4% 2.6% 1.4% 5.3%
Unweighted Frequency 2309 1313 996 367 639 712 591 253 205 140 944 595 172
Weighted Frequency 2309 1143 1166 642 578 636 453 315 261 150 885 539 158

(decided and leaning voters)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 30.2% 27.6% 32.7% 28% 26% 32.3% 35.7% 21.2% 15.3% 14.4% 40.9% 27.7% 36.3%
Conservative, Scheer 32.2% 38% 26.5% 23.2% 39.6% 34.3% 32.4% 33.3% 63.2% 48.5% 30.9% 17% 22.4%
NDP, Singh 15.1% 10.6% 19.5% 27.2% 12.6% 11.4% 6.2% 20.5% 11% 26.1% 14.1% 13.6% 11.2%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 7.2% 8.3% 6.1% 3.4% 7.1% 9.2% 9.8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30.8% 0%
Green, May 9.8% 8.6% 10.9% 10.8% 9.1% 7.9% 11.8% 18.5% 3.5% 5.7% 9% 5.5% 26.1%
People's Party, Bernier 4% 5.1% 2.8% 5.1% 4.8% 3% 2.5% 3.7% 5.3% 4.7% 3.4% 4.4% 3.1%
Another Party 1.6% 1.8% 1.4% 2.1% 0.6% 1.9% 1.5% 2.8% 1.7% 0.6% 1.7% 1% 0.9%
Unweighted Frequency 2246 1277 969 359 626 693 568 244 200 139 916 585 162
Weighted Frequency 2246 1112 1134 625 562 619 440 306 254 146 861 525 154
Questionnaire
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote
for?
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew Scheer
New Democratic Party of Canada led by Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth May
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet
(only given as an option in Quebec)
Another Party
Undecided

And which party are you leaning towards? (only asked of


respondents who were undecided in previous question)
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew Scheer
New Democratic Party of Canada led by Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth May
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet (only given as an option in
Quebec)
Another Party
Undecided

What is your gender?


Male
Female

What is your age group?


18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 7th to 9th
2019, among a sample of 2309 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada. The survey
was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both
landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
Canada.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by iPolitics.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over different times of day and two days to maximize
the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as
evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is
added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

The contact rates are as follows: total attempts: 50950, those participating: 15039 (29.5%),
those refused: 35605 (69.9%), those saying they are ineligible: 306 (0.6%)

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.