Emissions scenarios for the world’s transport

To make accurate predictions on the human influence on global climate change, researchers need to consider carbon dioxide emissions from worldwide transport, but most emissions research is currently centred upon transport from OECD countries (Europe, USA etc). Particular attention needs to be paid to the emerging economies such as China, India, and Latin America where there is a potential for a massive growth of vehicle ownership, manufacture and emissions. Dr Paul Timms of Leeds University’s Institute for Transport Studies and the Tyndall Centre is developing future scenarios and predictions of the carbon dioxide emissions of world transport. The results of his research will provide provisional estimates for transport activity for 2020 and 2050. Both sets of scenarios will cover passenger and freight traffic, and include all road, rail, water, air, and pipeline transport. The scenarios will represent local and long-distance traffic, and distinguish between the world’s geographic regions. The 2020 estimates will be based upon foreseeable future changes, and the 2050 estimates will be exploring radically different transport systems and patterns. The estimates will take account of predicted developments in new transport infrastructure; transport pricing; new vehicles and fuels; changing social attitudes towards transport; levels of car ownership; demographic trends; the globalisation of trade and labour; international tourism; and the effects of national and international carbon trading initiatives. The 2020 and 2050 estimates will feed into the Tyndall Centre’s overarching Community Integrated Assessment Model (CIAM). The CIAM is bringing together the different types of social, economic, environmental and engineering data that are needed for well-informed policy decisions about climate change. The project also aims to integrate in a consistent and scientific manner the forecasting and backcasting techniques for creating transport scenarios. Forecasting extrapolates current underlying trends into the future. Backcasting focuses on hypothetical future states of the world, and examines the policies that are required to achieve or avoid the future states. The project uses information created by international organisations such as the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), EU research projects, and national research projects from emerging economies such as India, China and Latin America.

The Tyndall Centre and Leeds University’s Institute of Transport Studies are developing future scenarios and predictions of the carbon dioxide emissions of world transport. The results will provide provisional estimates for transport activity for 2020 and 2050, covering passenger and freight traffic for road, rail, water and air.

More information
Contact the lead investigator of Project T3.15 (Creation of future world transport scenarios): Dr P M Timms Senior Research Fellow Institute for Transport Studies (ITS) University of Leeds LS2 9JT Tel: 01133 436612 ptimms@its.leeds.ac.uk Other researchers involved in this project are: Dr Rachel Warren and Dr Jonathan Kohler, Tyndall Centre HQ

Useful Websites
Bristow et al 2003 Climate Change, Impacts, Future Scenarios and the Role of Transport. Tyndall Working Paper 33 www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/working_papers.shtml Pridmore and Bristow 2002 The role of hydrogen in powering road transport. Tyndall Working Paper 19 www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp19_summary.shtml Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds www.its.leeds.ac.uk/ The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research www.tyndall.ac.uk Project duration: August 2003 – October 2004

Round 3