No. 10 Winter 2005

. . . enabling solutions through research and dialogue

Tynd-All is the quarterly electronic newsletter for people interested in the outputs and activities of the UK’s Tyndall Centre tyndall@uea.ac.uk if you wish to stop receiving Tynd-All.

Highlights since the last Tynd-All:
Pathways for the UK to achieve its CO2 targets Hurricane survival guide launched at Montreal Further funded for our groundbreaking research New lessons for technology policy and climate change City workshop for climate change investors UK needs twenty-five million whole-house makeovers Greenhouse East scenarios for the East of England Defining dangerous climate change special edition Eight Tyndall evidences for the G8 summit Supporting the British Council’s Zero Carbon Cities Oxford University and Newcastle University will be joining Tyndall Centre Phase II which is funded from April 2006 by the UK Research Councils

Media highlights:
Tyndall research featured at least 198 times in UK press and online news

Forward look:
Climate change in Africa, Paris Estonia Europe Young Scientist Workshop Climate change: What do the public now think of nuclear? EC ADAM research begins Climate change and Africa: linking science and policy for adaptation Launch of Tyndall Phase II

Tyndall Publications in 2005:
Twenty four projects completed their final Technical Reports and are online Seventeen Working Papers were published and are online Forty-two peer-reviewed journal articles were published Seventeen Books or Chapters became available from academic publishers Highlights since the last Tynd-All Pathways for the UK to achieve its CO2 targets The Tyndall Centre launched in September the UK's most comprehensive analysis to date of how the UK can achieve the Government's climate change targets across all sectors of economy and society. We unveiled a new set of energy scenarios which map pathways from the present day to a decarbonised UK in 2050. The scenarios explore energy supply and options for demand reduction and for the first time include emissions from the international aviation and marine sectors, revealing the true scale of the challenge facing the UK. Called 'Decarbonising the UK' the report was launched in Westminster by keynote speakers the Minister for Climate Change and the Environment Rt Hon. Elliot Morley MP and the Government’s Chief Scientific Advisor Sir David King.

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The overall analysis reveals that all householders, motorists and businesses will have to reduce their carbon dioxide pollution to zero if the growing aviation industry is to be incorporated into the UK’s climate change targets. It shows that even if aviation’s current growth is halved from today’s level, the rest of the economy will require carbon dioxide cuts far beyond Government targets. The new findings are part of a five year comprehensive study that sets-out a far reaching agenda for cutting carbon dioxide emissions over the next 45 years by detailing the actions that need to be taken by Government and industry. They are unique in incorporating the different perspectives of energy analysts, engineers, economists and social and environmental scientists into a wide understanding of how policymakers can achieve its 60% target of carbon dioxide reduction. For more information www.tyndall.ac.uk/events/decarb.shtml Email tyndall@uea.ac.uk if you wish to be sent hard copies Hurricane survival guide launched at Montreal climate change conference “June too soon, July stand by, August come it must, September remember, October all over” says a Caribbean rhyme where hurricanes are so common that generations of islanders have passed-along the poem. Drawing upon the practical experience of these islanders and the latest academic thinking, Emma Tompkins and colleagues at the University of East Anglia have written a guidebook to help the islands of the UK Overseas Territories and other regions prepare for the impacts of hurricanes, storms and sea level rise - predicted to change as global warming further influences the climate. “While media networks made Hurricanes Katrina and Rita seem like a new phenomenon for 2005, the small islands of the Caribbean are hit each year and every year. I hope that other islands and regions can learn from the lessons and approaches that we have put into the guidebook.” said Dr Emma Tompkins who led the book and the research behind it. The inspiration behind the guidebook is Dr Tompkins’ research in partnership with the Cayman Islands’ Government on better understanding preparedness for the impacts of hurricanes and climate change. The guidebook describes in detail the reasons why climate change is creating risks for small islands, why small islands need to address the risks, and it offers methods for managing those risks. For more information www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/surviving.pdf Further funded for our groundbreaking research on climate change solutions Professor Mike Hulme is pleased to announce a further three years funding from the UK's Research Councils to support the unique mission of the Tyndall Centre in doing high quality climate change science that is truly useful for both scientific theory and for policy practice. "We will continue to break new ground in innovative research on several national and international climate change themes and be a world exemplar for doing joined-up science for society" said Professor Hulme. The panel of international experts that spanned top scientists to business stakeholders concluded in their review of the first three years of Tyndall, "... that no comparable programme in its initial years has come further, faster or produced more exciting results." For more information www.tyndall.ac.uk/media/press_releases/tyndallfunding.pdf New lessons for technology policy and climate change The cost of a low carbon future may be no greater than the costs of investing in current energy technologies concludes our major set of studies analysing long-term technology. We have shown that the net cost of mitigation technologies depends crucially on the extent to which policy measures can reduce and stimulate innovation costs. The research is a significant departure to the traditional cost-benefit analysis of environmental problems, recognising that current technologies and costs are a poor guide to the energy sector in 2050. The thinking behind this work is that market economies are better characterised by successive waves of new clusters of technologies which in turn change the economic structures of production and consumption. For example, the current wave of IT continues to change the way that the global economy works. And to answer the ‘how much cost?’ question, the answer is between 0-2% of world GDP by 2050. This is equivalent to delaying reaching the global economic output of 2050 to a year later in 2051. By this time, GDP is likely to have risen by two to three hundred percent in most economies. A full briefing for policy people took place in April www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/briefing_notes/note13.pdf City workshop for climate change investors City investment professionals think that corporate investment needs to include long-term issues like climate change, concluded a Tyndall-funded stakeholder workshop with asset managers. The top three barriers to incorporating climate change in City thinking were the quality and availability of relevant information, and the restrictedness of the investment and asset management process. Institutional investors can also play a role in climate change policies through managing energy use both in-house and in their extensive property portfolios. The workshop identified a clear need for Trustees of pension funds to consider climate change in their investments - insurers Munich Re have costed recent extreme weather events at €10 billion. The full workshop report is online www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme2/final_reports/t3_25.pdf UK needs twenty-five million whole-house makeovers to match its global warming goals A massive cut in carbon dioxide pollution from British homes can meet Government aspirations if the necessary polices are applied now, says a comprehensive research report that was launched in March at the Royal Society by Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The 40%

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House report sets out a far-reaching policy agenda that prescribes cuts in energy and carbon dioxide pollution from existing and future housing. It details the actions to be taken by the Government, the European Commission, manufacturers and householders if carbon dioxide emissions from the nation’s housing stock are going to be only 40% of today’s level, in line with Government targets. This research into greenhouse gases from domestic houses is a component part of Decarbonising the UK, see item above. For more information www.eci.ox.ac.uk/lowercf/40house_programme.htm Greenhouse East scenarios for the East of England A unique collaboration between the Tyndall Centre and East of England policymakers has produced scenarios for reducing the region’s greenhouse gas pollution and shown policies for adapting to climate change. They hypothesise how sectors such as housing, transport and industry that are important to the Easter Region’s economic policy might look in 2050 after emissions reductions close to 60% have been achieved, in line with the Government’s aspirations. The method for creating the scenarios can be rolled-out and adapted to all UK regions. www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/greeneast.pdf Defining dangerous climate change special edition journal The notion of "dangerous climate change" constitutes an important development of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. But it persists as an ambiguous and subjective phrase about danger with multiple definitions. It also implicitly contains the question what to do about the complex and multi-disciplinary risk issues that climate change poses. This special issue of the journal Risk Analysis contains nine papers based from a Tyndall funded workshop that explored perspectives of dangerous climate change from physical science, social science, health and media angles www.blackwell-synergy.com/toc/RISK/25/6 Eight Tyndall evidences for the G8 summit In July we published Key8 for G8 to coincide with the G8 Summit in Scotland. The booklet captures eight Tyndall research discoveries to inform what leaders can do in response to climate change, selected from the first five years of Tyndall research. Each of our key findings carries the Tyndall trademark of partnering natural, environmental, social and engineering scientists with public policy debates. www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/key8forg8.pdf Supporting the British Council’s ZeroCarbonCity campaign ZeroCarbonCity is the British Council’s global campaign to raise awareness about climate change and the energy challenges facing the world’s cities and Tyndall staff have given numerous technical talks and public discussions around climate change and what can be done. We have mostly focused our contribution on countries where demand for energy is increasing with economic recovery, including Russia, Slovakia, Poland, Estonia, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, among others. Alex Haxeltine wrote the background Briefing Note on climate change and cities www.britishcouncil.org/zerocarboncity.htm Media Highlights Tyndall Centre research featured during 2005 a known 198 times in UK press and online news. This graph does not include broadcast news. The September spike, in particular (Decarbonising the UK), carried numerous interviews with TV and radio news programmes

Forward Look 09 January - Climate change in Africa, Paris The workshop runs from 9-12 Jan 2006 and brings together young interdisciplinary researchers primarily from the UK, France and Africa to meet in an informal atmosphere, present their own research and learn more about the

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nature of climate-society interactions in Africa and the scope for possible future collaborations. Themes include: Managing water resources variability; Coastal, lake and wetland-based livelihood systems; Socio-economic effects of floods and droughts; Adapting to drought in the Sahel; Lessons for adaptation to future climate change. 10 January – Estonia Europe workshop The British Council is sponsoring a two-day workshop in Estonia (9-10 January 2006) on the impacts in Europe of a changing climate and strategies for adaptation and mitigation, and has invited eight younger researchers to attend from the UK. The co-organisers are the University of Tartu (Estonia) and the Tyndall Centre (UK). 17 January – Climate change: What do the public now think of nuclear ? Public support for nuclear power has historically been low, but what about now when it is being promoted as a low carbon source of electricity? This meeting will launch research by the Centre for Environmental Risk at UEA and the Tyndall Centre into what the UK public think of nuclear, renewables and fossil fuelled power in a context of climate change. March – EC ADAM research begins The launch of the major ADAM research project (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies), funded at €13m by the EC and coordinated by Professor Mike Hulme at Tyndall Centre HQ and the University of East Anglia. ADAM runs from 2006-2009 and will lead to a better integrated understanding of the trade-offs and conflicts that exist between European adaptation and mitigation policies. It will support EU policy development in the next stage of the development of the Kyoto Protocol and inform the emergence of new strategies for adapting to climate change. It comprises a consortium of 25 research organisations from 15 countries, including China and India. For further information tyn.adam@uea.ac.uk 10 March - Climate change and Africa: linking science and policy for adaptation This one day workshop will provide a forum to refine knowledge for policy applications in relation to African adaptation to climate change. It is intended for researchers, development agencies and those involved in policy advice, and is organised by the Tyndall Centre (Declan Conway and Kate Brown) and the International Institute for Environment and Development. Further information from d.conway@uea.ac.uk April – What are the economic costs of climate change policy? The peer-reviewed publication Energy Journal will have a special edition on the new economics of technology policy for climate change. See above item ‘New lessons for technology policy and climate change’. April – Launch of Tyndall Phase II The launch of Tyndall Centre Phase II will begin a research consortium that builds on the intellectual success and capacity building of the Tyndall Centre. Phase II focuses research around six essential research questions for managing and better understanding what can be done in response to climate change.

This year’s publications A full publications list is at www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/publications.shtml Tyndall Centre researchers are highlighted in bold. Technical Reports Twenty four Tyndall funded projects delivered their final reports in 2005. All reports are downloadable at www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/tech_reports/tech_report s.shtml Starkey, R., Anderson, K., (2005) Domestic Tradable Quotas: A policy instrument for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from energy use, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 39 Pearson, S., Rees, J., Poulton, C., Dickson, M., Walkden, M., Hall, J., Nicholls, R., Mokrech, M., Koukoulas, S. and Spencer, T. (2005) Towards an integrated coastal sediment dynamics and shoreline response simulator, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 38 Sorrell, S. (2005) The contribution of energy service contracting to a low carbon economy, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 37 Anderson, Köhler, J., Foxon, T., Technology global and Report 23 D., Barker, T., Ekins, P., Green, K., Warren, R., Agnolucci, P., Dewick, P., Pan, H. and Winne, S. (2005) ETech+: policy and technical change, a dynamic UK approach, Tyndall Centre Technical

Abu-Sharkh, S., Li, R., Markvart, T., Ross, N., Wilson, P., Yao, R., Steemers, K., Kohler, J. and Arnold, R. (2005) Microgrids: distributed on-site generation, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 22 Shepherd, D., Jickells, T., Andrews, J., Cave, R., Ledoux, L, Turner, R., Watkinson, A., Aldridge, J. Malcolm, S, Parker, R., Young, E., Nedwell, D. (2005) Integrated modelling of an estuarine environment: an assessment of managed realignment options, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 21

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Tratalos, J. A., Gill, J. A., Jones, A., Showler, D., Bateman, A., Watkinson, A., Sugden, R., and Sutherland, W. (2005) Interactions between tourism, breeding birds and climate change across a regional scale, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 36 Thomas, D., Osbahr, H., Twyman, C., Adger, W. N. and Hewitson, B., (2005) ADAPTIVE: Adaptations to climate change amongst natural resource-dependant societies in the developing world: across the Southern African climate gradient, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 35 Arnell, N. W., Tompkins, E. L., Adger, W. N. and Delany, K. (2005) Vulnerability to abrupt climate change in Europe, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 34 Shackley, S. and Anderson, K. et al. (2005) Decarbonising the UK: Energy for a climate conscious future, Tyndall Technical Report 33 Halliday, J., Ruddell, A., Powell, J. and Peters, M. (2005) Fuel cells: Providing heat and power in the urban environment, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 32 Haxeltine, A., Turnpenny, J., O’Riordan, T., and Warren, R (2005) The creation of a pilot phase Interactive Integrated Assessment Process for managing climate futures, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 31 Nedic, D. P., Shakoor, A. A., Strbac, G., Black, M., Watson, J., and Mitchell, C. (2005) Security assessment of futures electricity scenarios, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 30 Shepherd, J., Challenor, P., Marsh, B., Williamson, M., Yool, W., Lenton, T., Huntingford, C., Ridgwell, A and Raper, S. (2005) Planning and Prototyping a Climate Module for the Tyndall Integrated Assessment Model, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 29 Lorenzoni, I., Lowe, T. and Pidgeon, N. (2005) A strategic assessment of scientific and behavioural perspectives on ‘dangerous’ climate change, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 28 Boardman, B., Killip, G., Darby S. and Sinden, G, (2005) Lower Carbon Futures: the 40% House Project, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 27 Dearing, J.A., Plater, A.J., Richmond, N., Prandle, D. and Wolf , J. (2005) Towards a high resolution cellular model for coastal simulation (CEMCOS), Tyndall Centre Technical Report 26 Timms, P., Kelly, C., and Hodgson, F., (2005) World transport scenarios project, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 25 Brown, K., Few, R., Tompkins, E. L., Tsimplis, M. and Sortti, (2005) Responding to climate change: inclusive and integrated coastal analysis, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 24 Dlugolecki, A. and Mansley, M. (2005) Asset management and climate change, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 20

Shackley, S., Bray, D. and Bleda, M., (2005) Developing discourse coalitions to incorporate stakeholder perceptions and responses within the Tyndall Integrated Assessment, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 19 Dutton, A. G., Bristow, A. L., Page, M. W., Kelly, C. E., Watson, J. and Tetteh, A. (2005) The Hydrogen energy economy: its long term role in greenhouse gas reduction, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 18 Few, R. (2005) Health and flood risk: A strategic assessment of adaptation processes and policies, Tyndall Centre Technical Report 17 Working Papers www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/working_p apers.shtml Anderson K., Bows A., (2005) An analysis of a postKyoto climate policy model: Tyndall Working Paper 82 Sorrell S., (2005) The economics of energy service contracts: Tyndall Working Paper 81 Haxeltine A., Kjellen B, Kohler J., Turnpenny J., Warren R., Wittneben B, (2005) A framework for assessing the political economy of post-2012 global climate regime: Tyndall Working Paper 80 Ingham A., Ma J., Ulph A., (2005) Can Adaptation and Mitigation be complements?: Tyndall working paper 79 Agnolucci P., (2005) Opportunism and competition in the non-Fossil fuel obligation: Tyndall working paper 78 Barker T., Kohler J., Pan H., Warren R., Winne S., (2005) Avoiding dangerous climate change by inducing technological progress: scenarios using a large-scale econometric model: Tyndall Working paper 77 Agnolucci P., (2005) The role of political uncertainty in the Danish renewable energy market: Tyndall Working paper 76 Fu G, Lawry J, Hall J, (2005) Beyond probability: new methods for representing uncertainty in projections of future climate: Tyndall Working paper 75 Ingham A., Ma J., Ulph A., (2005) How do the costs of adaptation affect optimal mitigation when there is uncertainty irreversibility and learning?: Tyndall Working Paper 74 Walkden M, (2005) Coastal Process simulator scoping study: Tyndall Working Paper 73 Brown K, Dessai S, Doria M, Haynes K, Lowe T., Vincent K, (2005) Does tomorrow ever come? Disaster narrative and public perceptions of climate change: Tyndall Working Paper 72 a summary version of this was reported in: Brown,K (2004) Today is the time to take environmental action - Nature 431, 897.

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Boyd E., Gutierrez M, Chang M, (2005) Adapting smallscale CDM sinks projects to low-income communities: Tyndall Working Paper 71 Abu-Sharkh S., Kohler J., Li B, Markvart T, Ross N, Steemers K, Wilson A, Arnold R, (2005) Can microgrids make a major Contribution to UK energy supply?: Tyndall Working Paper 70 Hurlston L, Tompkins E. L, (2005) Natural hazards and climate change: what knowledge is transferable?: Tyndall Working Paper 69 Bleda M, Shackley S., (2005) The formation of belief in climate change in business organisations: A dynamic simulation model: Tyndall Working Paper 68 Turnpenny J., O'Riordan T., Haxeltine A., (2005) Developing regional and local scenarios for climate change mitigation and adaptation; Part 2: Scenario creation: Tyndall Working Paper 67 Turnpenny J., Haxeltine A., O'Riordan T., Lorenzoni I., (2005) Mapping actors involved in climate change policy networks in the UK: Tyndall Working Paper 66 Journal Papers

Adger W. N., (2005) Social capital collective action and adaptation to climate change. Economic Geography. 79(4): 387-404 Adger W. N., Arnell N. W., Tompkins E. L, (2005) Adaptation to Climate Change: Perspectives across scales. Global Environmental Change. 15(1). (submitted 2005) Adger W. N., Mace M J, Paavola J, Razzaque J, (2005) Justice and equity in adaptation Tiempo. 52. 19-22. Adger W. N., Brown K, Hulme M, (2005) Redefining global environmental change. Global Environmental Change 15 1-4 Ahern M., Kovats S., (2005) Global Health Impacts of Floods: Epidemiologic Evidence. Epidemiol Rev 27(1): 3646. Ahern M., Kovats S., (2005) Global Health Impacts of Floods: Epidemiologic Evidence. Epidemiologic Reviews 27(1): 36-46. Anderson D., Leach M., (2005) Harvesting and Redistributing Renewable Energy: on the role of gas and electricity grids to overcome intermittency through the generation and storage of hydrogen. Energy Policy.

Adger W. N., Vincent K, (2005) Uncertainty in adaptive capacity (IPCC Special Issue on Describing Uncertainties Arnell N. W., Jones R, Hudson D A, (2005) Climate in Climate Change to Support Analysis of risk and Options) change scenarios from a regional climate model: Comptes Rendus Geoscience 337 Estimating change in runoff in southern Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 108(D16): art. no.Adger W. N., Arnell N. W., (2005) Adaptation to Climate 4519. Change: Perspectives across Scales. Global Environmental Change 15(2) Haxeltine A., Winne S., Kersten W, Berk M, (2005) Towards a long-term European strategy on climate change Adger W. N., Arnell N. W., (2005) Adapting to climate policy, Climate Policy, 5 (2005) 244-250 change: perspectives across scales (editorial). Global Environmental Change 15(2): 75-76. Brooks N, Adger W. N., (2005) The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and Adger W. N., Arnell N. W., (2005) Successful adaptation the implications for adaptation. Global Environmental to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change 15(2): 151-163. Change 15(2): 77-86. Dessai S, Lu X, (2005) Limited sensitivity analysis of Adger W. N., Barnett J, (2005) Compensation for climate regional climate change probabilities for the 21st century. change must meet needs: Correspondence. Nature(436): J. Geophys. Research 110 328 Dessai S, Lu X, (2005) On the role of climate scenarios Adger W. N., Brown K, (2005) The political economy of for adaptation planning. Global Environmental Change cross-scale networks in resource co-management. 15(2): 87-97. Ecology and Society 10:9.. Corbera E., Dessai S, Haxeltine A., Schipper EL, Adger W. N., Hughes TP, (2005) Social-ecological (2005) Challenges and Outcomes at the Ninth Session of resilience to coastal disasters. Science (309): 1036-1039 the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; International Environmental Agreements vol.5 pp.105-124 Adger W. N., Vincent K, (2005) Uncertainty in adaptive capacity (IPCC Special Issue on ‘Describing Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and Fish M, Cote I, (2005) Predicting the impact of sea level Options’). Comptes Rendus Geoscience 337((4),): 399rise on Caribbean sea turtle nesting habitat. Conservation 410. Biology 19(2): 482-491

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Gardner T A, Cote I, (2005) Hurricanes and Caribbean coral reefs: immediate impacts, recovery trajectories and contribution to long-term coral decline. Ecology 86(1): 174184. Gibbons J, Ramsden S, (2005) Robustness of recommended farm plans in England under climate change: A Monte Carlo simulation. Climatic Change 68(12): 113-133. Hertin J, Barlow J, Berkhout F, Gann D M, (2005) Climate change and the UK house building sector: perceptions impacts and adaptive capacity. Building Research and Information 31: 278-290 Hulme M, (2005) Global warming. Progress in Physical Geography, Volume, 24 (4) Pp. 591-599 Jickells T, (2005) External inputs as a contributor to eutrophication problems. Journal of Sea Research 54: 58– 69 Jones P, Mitchell C, (2005) An improved method of contructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids; International Journal of Climate Policy vol. 25 pp.693-712 Kundewicz Z, Schellnhuber H-J., (2005) From Kyoto via Moscow to nowhere? Climate Policy 4:81-90

Tompkins E. L, (2005) Planning for climate change in small islands: Insights from national hurricane preparedness in the Cayman Islands. Global Environmental Change 15(2): 139-149. Tompkins E. L, Adger W. N., (2005) Defining a response capacity for climate change. Environmental Science and Policy 8(6): 562–571 Tsimplis M, Woolf D, (2005) Towards a vulnerability assessment of the UK and northern European coasts: the role of regional climate variability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 363: 1329-1358. Upham P., Butlin S, (2005) Allocating aircraft carbon dioxide emissions to airports on the basis of passenger share: scenarios for Manchester Airport. World Transport Policy and Practice 11(1): 5-12. Watkinson A., Gill J., Hulme M, (2005) Flying in the face of climate change: a review of climate change past present and future. Ibis. 146: 4-10. Books and Chapters Adger W. N., Huq S, (2005) Fairness and Climate Change. Cambridge, MIT Press.

Adger W. N., Huq S, (2005) Towards Justice in Adaptation to Climate Change. Fairness and Climate Change. W. N. Miozzo M, Dewick P, (2005) Globalization and the Adger, S. Huq, M. J. Mace and J. Paavola. Cambridge, environment: the long-term effects of technology on the international division of labor and energy demand. Futures. MIT Press. Naess L O, Bang G, (2005) Institutional adaptation to climate change: Flood responses at the municipal level in Norway. Global Environmental Change 15(2): 125-138. Nicholson-Cole S, (2005) Representing climate change futures: a critique on the use of images for visual communication. Computers, environment and urban systems 29: 255-273. Paavola J, Adger W. N., (2005) Institutional ecological economics. Ecological Economics 53(3): 353–368. Paavola J, Adger W. N., (2005) Fair Adaptation to Climate Change. Ecological Economics 53(3) Robbins M, (2005) Agricultural sinks in the developing world: Different disciplines and different perspectives. Environmental Sciences 2(1): 15-19. Shackley S., Maclachlan C, (2005) The public perception of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the UK: results from focus groups and a survey. Climate Policy 4: 377398. Thomas D, Twyman C, (2005) Equity and justice in climate change adaptation amongst natural-resourcedependent societies. Global Environmental Change 15(2): 115-124. Adger W. N., Paavola J, (2005) A Framework for Analysing Justice in Adaptation. Fairness and Climate Change. W. N. Adger, S. Huq, M. J. Mace and J. Paavola. Cambridge, MIT Press. Adger W. N., (2005) Governing natural resources: institutional adaptation and resilience. In F. Berkhout M. Leach and I. Scoones (Eds.) Negotiating Environmental Change: New Perspectives from Social Science. 193-208. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Adger W. N., Vincent K, (2005) Uncertainty in adaptive capacity (IPCC Special Issue on ‘Describing Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and Options’). Comptes Rendus Geoscience 337:pp 399-410 Brooks N, Adger W. N., (2005) Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity. Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures. B. In Lim, E. Spanger-Siegfried, I. Burton, E. Malone and S. Huq. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press: pp 165-181. Coll J., Gibb S, (2005) Modelling future climates in the Scottish Highlands - an approach integrating local climatic variables and regional climate model outputs. Mountains of Northern Europe: Conservation, Management, People and Nature. D. B. A. Thompson, M. F. Price and C. A. Galbraith. Edinburgh, HMSO: 103-119.

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Corbera E., (2005) Bringing development into carbon forestry markets: Challenges and outcomes of small-scale carbon forestry activities in Mexico. In D. Murdiyarso and H. Herawati (eds) Carbon Forestry: Who will benefit? Center for International Forestry Research, Bogor, Indonesia. Dearing J., (2005) Towards a High Resoluaion Cellular Model for Coastal Simulation (CEMCOS). Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series aMathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences. Dearing J., (2005) Integration of world and earth systems: heritage and foresight. World System History and Global Environmental Change. A. Hornborg, Columbia Press. (in press) Hulme M, Doherty R, (2005) Global warming and African climate change: a re-assessment. Climate change and Africa. P.S.Low. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press,: 416pp. Kropp J, Schellnhuber H-J., (2005) Prototyping of Broad-Scale Climate and Ecosystem Classes by Means of Neural Maps. Self-Organising Maps: Applications in Geographic Information Sciences. P. Agrarwal and A. Skupin. New York, Wiley & Sons.

Levermore G, Gadian A, (2005) Duct loop systems; savings and performance. ASHRAE Meeting Symposium, Orlando, USA. Paavola J, (2005) Knowledge or Participation for Sustainability? Science, Pluralism, and Governance of Adaptation to Climate Change. Knowledge for Sustainability Transition: The Challenge for Social Science. F. Biermann, S. Campe and K. Jacob. Berlin, Springer.(in press) Paavola J, (2005) Vulnerability, Adaptation and Justice in Tanzania. Fairness and Climate Change. W. N. Adger, S. Huq, M. J. Mace and . Paavola. Cambridge, MIT Press (in press) Paavola J, (2005) Water, Poverty and Climate Change in Morogoro, Tanzania. Fresh Water. V. Grover. Delhi, Oxford and IBH Publishing (in press) Paavola J, (2005) Environmental Justice and Equity. International Encyclopedia of Public Policy: Governance in a Global Age. P. O'Hara. London, Routledge.

The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research undertakes integrated, trans-disciplinary research into the consequences of climate change for society and seeks, evaluates and facilitates sustainable solutions. We bring together climate scientists, social scientists, engineers and economists from nine academic institutions around the UK in a unique collaborative research consortium. The Tyndall Centre’s headquarters are at the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia (UEA), with two regional offices at the University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology (UMIST), and the University of Southampton and Southampton Oceanography Centre (SOC). Please send your feedback to Mr Asher Minns, Tyndall’s Communication Manager a.minns@uea.ac.uk, Tel:+44 (0)1865 275867 or 07880 547843

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