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Memorandum:

Date: October 14, 2019

Subject: New Hampshire Pre-Ohio Debate Presidential Primary Poll

From: R. Kelly Myers


Senior Research Fellow
Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication, Franklin Pierce University

Portsmouth, NH. – A recent poll of registered “likely presidential primary voters” in the state of
New Hampshire finds modest shifting support among Democratic voters, while Republicans are
largely standing firm with President Trump.

Among likely Republican primary voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains
virtually unchanged since the last poll conducted in early September. Trump’s overall approval
rating among Republicans was 83 percent in early September and is 81 percent today. And the
percent of Republicans who strongly approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president was
54 percent a month ago, and 55 percent today. Only 19 percent of Republican primary voters
disapprove of the job President Trump is doing as president in the most recent poll.

However, the percentage of Republican voters who would vote for Trump if the primary were
held today was 88 percent a month ago, and 71 percent today, a 17-point decline. Former
Massachusetts Governor, Bill Weld’s support increased from 3 percent in early September to 14
percent today.
The poll included questions speculating what would happen if other Republicans were to enter
the race, including Former UN Ambassador, Nikki Haley, Former Ohio Governor, John Kasich
and Utah Senator, Mitt Romney. Relatively few Republican primary voters indicate that they
would vote for any of these 3 candidates if they were to enter the race. Haley would attract 9
percent of the vote, Kasich would attract 9 percent and Romney would attract 12 percent.

Among Democratic primary voters, Vermont Senator, Bernie Sanders (30%) was leading his two
primary rivals, Former Vice President, Joe Biden (21%) and Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth
Warren (17%) in the September poll. Today, the Democratic race is a statistical dead-heat
between Warren (25%), Biden (24%) and Sanders (22%).

The poll included questions speculating what would happen if other Democrats were to enter
the race, including Former First Lady, Michelle Obama and Disney CEO, Bob Iger. Iger remains
largely unknown among Democratic voters and only 4 percent indicated that they would vote
for him if he were to enter the race. But if Michelle Obama were to enter the race, it would
change things dramatically. Twenty-six percent of Democrats would vote for her, making her
the new front-runner. Under this scenario, Obama (26%) would lead Warren (20%), Biden (20%)
and Sanders (15%). She would take away 4-points from Warren, 4-points from Biden and 7-
points from Sanders.

Going into the Democratic debate at Otterbein University in Westerville, Ohio on Tuesday,
October 15th, 84 percent of Democratic primary voters said that they definitely (42%) or
probably (42%) will watch it, which means it could have a significant impact on the race. Nearly
one-half of likely Republican primary voters said that they definitely (12%) or probably (36%)
will watch it.
Methodology

These results are based on a telephone survey of “likely New Hampshire presidential primary
voters” administered October 9-13, 2019. The survey was conducted by RKM Research and
Communications and paid for by Franklin Pierce University in collaboration with the Boston
Herald. The purpose of the poll is for media release.

All interviews were conducted by telephone using paid, trained and supervised interviewers.
The survey was conducted in English. A dual-frame sample design was used to include a
combination of cell phone (74%) and landline (26%) telephone numbers. A total of 827
interviews were conducted, including n=422 likely Democratic presidential primary voters and
n=405 likely Republican presidential primary voters. A probabilistic sample of cell phone and
landline numbers was purchased from Survey Sampling, Inc. The results of the survey are
unweighted.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 422 likely Democratic presidential primary
voters is +/- 4.8 percent.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 405 likely Republican presidential primary
voters is +/- 4.9 percent.

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error
including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response.

For more information about the survey please contact R. Kelly Myers.

Office: 603.319.4269
Email: kmyers@rkm-research.com