Opportunism and competition in the non-fossil fuel obligation

Paolo Agnolucci July 2005

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Working Paper 78

Opportunism and competition in the non-fossil fuel obligation
Paolo Agnolucci (1) Environment Group, Policy Studies Institute 100 Park Village East, London NW1 3SR p.agnolucci@psi.org.uk

Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 78

Please note that Tyndall working papers are "work in progress". Whilst they are commented on by Tyndall researchers, they have not been subject to a full peer review. The accuracy of this work and the conclusions reached are the responsibility of the author(s) alone and not the Tyndall Centre.

Summary The Non-Fossil Fuel Order (NFFO), which consisted in competitive tendering for the development of Renewables Energy projects, was the main policy to promote electricity from Renewable Energy Sources for almost one decade in the United Kingdom. This paper focuses on the incentives faced by developers bidding for a contract under the NFFO and shows that the low building rate under this scheme is likely to have been not an unfortunate accident. This paper constitutes the first block of a study analysing the policy implications of the NFFO.

Keywords: Renewably Electricity; Renewable Policy, Non-Fossil Fuel Obligation; Moral Hazard; Post-contractual Opportunism

1 Introduction In the literature the Non-Fossil Fuel Obligation (NFFO) is generally considered a successful policy instrument (AEP, 1997). However, while the instrument has driven down costs, it has not resulted in a scale of deployment comparable to that occurred in other European countries. This failure is puzzling as the NFFO was a very long-term policy, taking into account the importance of the risk-reward ratio mentioned in ICCEPT and E4TECH (2003). In particular, see section 2, the instrument was designed to make the risk born by renewable generators equal to those born by generators using fossil fuels. After describing the NFFO (section2) and the efficiency of this instrument (section 3), this paper analyses the incentives of economic agents bidding for a NFFO contract (section 4) and draws insights on the reasons why this policy has been unable to bring about a considerable deployment of renewable electricity generation capacity (section 5).

2 Introduction and Implementation of the Non-Fossil Fuel Obligation The Non-Fossil Fuel Obligation (NFFO) was introduced in England and Wales by the section 32 and 33 of the 1989 Electricity Act. The Act allowed the Secretary of State to order the Public Electricity Suppliers (PES) to purchase a certain amount of electricity produced from non-fossil fuels and also established a mechanism, the Fossil Fuel Levy (FFL), to compensate the PES for the NFFO. The background of the NFFO is the privatisation of utilities carried out by the Conservative Government in the UK. Through the Electricity Act, the entire sector, previously a vertically integrated monopoly called the Central Electricity Generating Board, was split and auctioned to private companies. Mitchell (2000) points out that when it was found out that the nuclear generators were not commercially competitive, the government removed them from sale and accepted they would remain in public ownership. In 1990, the British government asked the European Commission for permission to charge a Fossil Fuel Levy (FFL) on every electricity consumer in order to subsidise the nuclear generators. Renewable Energy Generators (REG) seized the opportunity and demanded the same price support offered to nuclear power. In order to implement the framework set out in the Electricity Act, two Electricity Orders, one for nuclear, the other for Renewable Energy Sources (RES)1, were issued in 1990. The latter prescribed each PES in England and Wales to make arrangements to secure an amount of nonfossil fuel generating capacity not inferior to those specified in the order. The first NFFO was followed by other four orders2 by the end of 1998. The main difference among the 5 rounds is the time span of the order. While the first two orders were issued for a brief period, the others covered a considerably longer time horizon (until a maximum of 21 years in the 1998 order). This was due to the fact that RES generators when offered a brief price-support policy still had to face considerable uncertainty about the future stream of financial resources.

1 2

These are the Statutory Instrument 1990 no. 263 and 1859, respectively. Statutory Instrument 1991 No. 2490; Statutory Instrument 1994 No. 3259; Statutory Instrument 1997 No. 248; Statutory Instrument 1998 No. 2353.

While the NFFO secured a market for RES, an auction held by the Department of Trade of Industry (DTI) supplied the generating capacity to satisfy the obligation. Private companies winning the auction were given contracts to produce electricity under the NFFO. The whole mechanism was prompted by a consultation on the possibilities of securing investment in RES. After evaluating the responses obtained by interested parties, the DTI published a Renewable Energy Bulletin (REB) and the Non Fossil Purchasing Agency (NFPA) invited expressions of interest to build generating capacity. The initial bids submitted by the generators contained information on the proposed project such as the location, the capacity and the price per kW of capacity. The then Electricity Regulator (OFFER) undertook a “will-secure” test on each of the generators’ bid. This test verified the financial and technical feasibility of the project so as ensure the PES that they could rely on these generators for discharging the NFFO obligation. The DTI decided the final capacity and technological mix of the contracts according to the bids per kWh submitted by REG. For each technology band, the DTI decided the cut-off point, i.e. the highest price per kWh it was prepared to pay. The subsidy per kWh corresponded to the difference between Pool market price and the final bid submitted at the DTI auction. The payments for the NFFO contracts were funded through the FFL, which was recalculated annually to raise the amount required for the previous year’s obligation. 3 Efficiency of the Non-Fossil Fuel Order The rationale behind the DTI auction is shown in Figure 1. The DTI used the price in the pool market, P0 in the figure below to determine the subsidy granted to the RES-E generated at a price per kWh bigger than P0. For example, in Technology Band A the projects that are pricecompetitive with conventional electricity, (q < Q0), would not receive any subsidy, as they will be carried out anyway. The policy instrument aimed to give to each project the subsidy needed to make the generation cost per kWh equal to the pool price. For example, in Figure 1 the project with generation price P1 would receive a subsidy equal to P1 – P0. Eliciting project developers to bid for subsidies allowed the DTI to trace the supply curve of RES-E for each technology band. Fixing the cut-off price for different technology bands (for example P2 for technology A), the DTI determined the amount of electricity generated by each technology.

Technology Band A P2 P1 P0



Q0 Q1


Electricity from RES

Figure 1 Economic rationale of the NFFO. The shaded area (1) is the producer’s surplus arising from the production of the electricity flow Q3 Q0. The shaded area (2) is the subsidy paid by an ideal NFFO in order to generate the electricity flow Q2 - Q0

The NFFO was an efficient instrument in the sense that it contributed to the decrease of the costs of RES-E over time. Although the bids are not fully equivalent because of the different length of the orders, see Section 2, the “average” price paid to each technology decreased between 21-34% between 1994 and 1998. One can wonder if developers passed on savings or if they dangerously undercut profits. 4 Microeconomics of project developing under the Non-Fossil Fuel Order Because of the fairly low share of contracted capacity built after the NFFO rounds, it is worth analysing the incentives of a rational economic agent bidding for a contract. In the following, 4 cases are presented which differ according to the nature of the costs and of the probability of a project not being built. Case 1: Cost and Planning Certainty As shown in Figure 2, after the auction a project developer can either be awarded a contract (state B) or not (state A). The pay-off in A corresponds to the administrative costs of doing the paperwork for the auction (AC). After being awarded a contract, state B, a developer can either build the project (D) or not (C). In D the pay-off corresponds to the revenues (RE) from electricity minus the administrative costs, the costs of obtaining all the needed permissions (i.e. planning costs, PC) and the costs of electricity generation (GC). In C the pay-off corresponds to the administrative costs. Provided that RE > GC + PC, a rational economic agent prefers D to C and therefore B to A. In conditions of cost-certainty and when all projects are awarded a planning permission all the contracted capacity will be installed as developers’ bids should be at least as high as to make RE equal to AC + GC + PC. However, with uncertain costs some developers may find out after the auction that their projects have a negative pay-off; hence they will not build the project (state C).

A (- AC)


C (-AC)


(RE - AC - GC - PC)

Figure 2. Pay-offs for a generator bidding for a NFFO contract in conditions of cost certainty. The bold lines indicate which branch the developer will choose.

Case 2: Cost Uncertainty Although developers might have not carried out some of the NFFO projects because of uncertain costs, it is implausible that this factor alone is responsible for such high levels of second thinking as those observed in England and Wales. Suppose that the developers have two expectations on

costs: high and low. If a developer bids high, he will not be awarded a NFFO contract while if he bids low he will get one. After being awarded the contract, he has to “find out” if the project he bid for is economically profitable and if the planning permission is granted (i.e. socially acceptable). Suppose that this happen with probability 1-p. When a developer decides his bid, the expected values will be EV (high) = - AC and EV (low) = (1-p) (RE - AC – GC – PC1) + p ( - AC -PC2). Quite reasonably, one can assume that the planning costs for building a project (PC1) are bigger than planning costs born by the developer when projects do not go through (PC2). A rational developer bids a low cost if EV(high) < EV(low) or similarly3 if: (1-p)(RE - GC - PC1)+p(-PC2) > 0 (1).

Under the assumption that bidding high implies not being awarded the any contract, the inequality (1) shows that a has an incentive to bid low when he is optimistic about the probability of the project going through (low p) or about the future level of net revenues (high RE or low GC and PC1). The share of projects not built (state C) will depend on how similar developers’ expectations are to the state of the world observed after the contract is granted. It becomes important to further specify the probability of a project being economically profitable and socially acceptable.



A (-AC)




C (-AC - PC2)

D (RE - AC - GC - PC1)

Figure 3. Pay-offs for a generator bidding for a NFFO contract with costs uncertainty and strategic behaviour Case 3: Exogenous probability Suppose that this probability p does not depend on any of the variables in (1). In this setting, a developer will set PC2 equal to zero. If planning costs to try to develop a project do not have any influence on its outcome, undertaking them will be pointless. Hence, the (1) reduces to RE - GC - PC1 > 0 (2).

Equation (2) shows that when p is not influenced by the variables of the problem, a developer does not consider the probability of the project being economically not profitable and not socially acceptable. This is influenced only by his expectations on costs and revenues, independently of how implausible these expectations are. If it turns out that his expectations on costs are wrong he

EV(high) > EV(low) is equal to (1-p)(RE-AC-GC-PC1)+p(-AC- PC2) > - AC. After deleting the term AC, only (1-p)(RE-GC-PC1)+p(-PC2)>0 is left.


gets a negative pay-off (-AC), which corresponds, to what he would obtain, should he have bid high and lost the auction.

Case 4: Endogenous probability Undoubtedly, it is not very plausible for a developer to consider 1 - p exogenous. In fact p is jointly determined by market forces, local authorities, local communities and by developers themselves. The developer should take into account this interaction, when deciding his bid. He will make a low bid only if EV (low) > EV ( high ) or

(1 − p(•))(RE − GC − PC1 ) + p(•)(− PC 2 ) > 0


p (•) indicates that the probability is a function of RE, GC, PC1 and PC2 rather than being
exogenously determined. When taking a decision on his bid, a developer will solve the inequation above in conjunction with the equation linking the probability to its determinants. For the purpose of this paper, it is sufficient to point out that in this setting the developer understands that bidding too low increases p. At the same time, he is aware that other developers might be willing to do so. 5 Conclusions In the NFFO the incentives faced by developers and the difficulty in observing their behaviour caused what is called “moral hazard”. Moral hazard is a form of opportunism that may arise when actions influencing the allocation of costs and benefits of economic transactions cannot be freely observed. In these conditions, the person taking these actions may choose to pursue his or her private interests at others’ expense (Milgrom and Robert 1992). By approving the submitted business plans through the “will-secure test”, whose function was to stop not feasible projects, OFFER let the developers know that they would not be responsible for not implementing their plans. In addition, as the effort of developers in trying to build plants was difficult to observe, developers could invest very little time and money on it if they wished so. Under these conditions developers did not bear almost any costs of unrealistic expectations provided that their plans were approved by OFFER. Although the developers holding these expectations and submitting very low bids certainly understood that they decreased their chances of making profit out of a project, the competition in the NFFO auction gave an incentive to developers to underestimate the relation between their bid and the probability of implementing the project. In fact, in section 4, it was shown that when the probability of a project being economically profitable and socially acceptable is exogenous, it is rational for an economic agent to hold unrealistic expectations provided it can set planning costs equal or almost equal to zero. The next steps of this research will analyse the importance of learning in planning renewable generation and the policy implications arising from the NFFO.

Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Paul Ekins, Jim Watson and Tim Foxon for discussing previous drafts of this work and Karin Jonson, Visiting Student at PSI during the preparation of this paper, for invaluable research support. The paper has drawn upon work completed for Tyndall Centre project T2.12 – “ETech+: Technology policy and technical change, a dynamic global and UK approach”. Discussion with colleagues on this project is also gratefully acknowledged.

References Iccept and E4Tech, 2003. The Uk Innovations Systems for New and Renewable Energy technologies, Final Report to the DTI Renewable Energy Development and Deployment Team, downloadable from http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/renewables/policy/icepttheukinnovation.pdf Mitchell, C. 2000. The England and Wales non-fossil fuel obligation: History and lessons, Annual Review of Energy and Environment, 25, 285-312 Milgrom P. and J. Roberts, 1992. Economics, Organization & Management, Prestice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey

The trans-disciplinary Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research undertakes integrated research into the long-term consequences of climate change for society and into the development of sustainable responses that governments, business-leaders and decision-makers can evaluate and implement. Achieving these objectives brings together UK climate scientists, social scientists, engineers and economists in a unique collaborative research effort. Research at the Tyndall Centre is organised into four research themes that collectively contribute to all aspects of the climate change issue: Integrating Frameworks; Decarbonising Modern Societies; Adapting to Climate Change; and Sustaining the Coastal Zone. All thematic fields address a clear problem posed to society by climate change, and will generate results to guide the strategic development of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies at local, national and global scales. The Tyndall Centre is named after the 19th century UK scientist John Tyndall, who was the first to prove the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect and suggested that slight changes in atmospheric composition could bring about climate variations. In addition, he was committed to improving the quality of science education and knowledge. The Tyndall Centre is a partnership of the following institutions: University of East Anglia UMIST Southampton Oceanography Centre University of Southampton University of Cambridge Centre for Ecology and Hydrology SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research (University of Sussex) Institute for Transport Studies (University of Leeds) Complex Systems Management Centre (Cranfield University) Energy Research Unit (CLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory) The Centre is core funded by the following organisations: Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) UK Government Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) For more information, visit the Tyndall Centre Web site (www.tyndall.ac.uk) or contact: External Communications Manager Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK Phone: +44 (0) 1603 59 3906; Fax: +44 (0) 1603 59 3901 Email: tyndall@uea.ac.uk

Tyndall Working Papers are available online at http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/working_papers.shtml Mitchell, T. and Hulme, M. (2000). A Country-byCountry Analysis of Past and Future Warming Rates, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 1. Hulme, M. (2001). Integrated Assessment Models, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 2. Berkhout, F, Hertin, J. and Jordan, A. J. (2001). Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as 'learning machines', Tyndall Centre Working Paper 3. Barker, T. and Ekins, P. (2001). How High are the Costs of Kyoto for the US Economy?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 4. Barnett, J. (2001). The issue of 'Adverse Effects and the Impacts of Response Measures' in the UNFCCC, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 5. Goodess, C.M., Hulme, M. and Osborn, T. (2001). The identification and evaluation of suitable scenario development methods for the estimation of future probabilities of extreme weather events, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 6. Barnett, J. (2001). Security and Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 7. Adger, W. N. (2001). Social Capital and Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 8. Barnett, J. and Adger, W. N. (2001). Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 9. Gough, C., Taylor, I. and Shackley, S. (2001). Burying Carbon under the Sea: An Initial Exploration of Public Opinions, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 10. Barker, T. (2001). Representing the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Adaptation and Mitigation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 11. Dessai, S., (2001). The climate regime from The Hague to Marrakech: Saving or sinking the Kyoto Protocol?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 12. Dewick, P., Green K., Miozzo, M., (2002). Technological Change, Industry Structure and the Environment, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 13. Shackley, S. and Gough, C., (2002). The Use of Integrated Assessment: An Institutional Analysis Perspective, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 14. Köhler, J.H., (2002). Long run technical change in an energy-environment-economy (E3) model for an IA system: A model of Kondratiev waves, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 15. Adger, W.N., Huq, S., Brown, K., Conway, D. and Hulme, M. (2002). Adaptation to climate change: Setting the Agenda for Development Policy and Research, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 16. Dutton, G., (2002). Hydrogen Energy Technology, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 17. Watson, J. (2002). The development of large technical systems: implications for hydrogen, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 18. Pridmore, A. and Bristow, A., (2002). The role of hydrogen in powering road transport, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 19. Turnpenny, J. (2002). Reviewing organisational use of scenarios: Case study - evaluating UK energy policy options, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 20. Watson, W. J. (2002). Renewables and CHP Deployment in the UK to 2020, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 21. Watson, W.J., Hertin, J., Randall, T., Gough, C. (2002). Renewable Energy and Combined Heat and Power Resources in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 22. Paavola, J. and Adger, W.N. (2002). Justice and adaptation to climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 23. Xueguang Wu, Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. (2002). Impact of Integrating Renewables and CHP into the UK Transmission Network, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 24 Xueguang Wu, Mutale, J., Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. (2003). An investigation of Network Splitting for Fault Level Reduction, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 25 Brooks, N. and Adger W.N. (2003). Country level risk measures of climate-related natural disasters and implications for adaptation to climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 26 Tompkins, E.L. and Adger, W.N. (2003). Building resilience to climate change through adaptive management of natural resources, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 27

Dessai, S., Adger, W.N., Hulme, M., Köhler, J.H., Turnpenny, J. and Warren, R. (2003). Defining and experiencing dangerous climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 28 Brown, K. and Corbera, E. (2003). A MultiCriteria Assessment Framework for CarbonMitigation Projects: Putting “development” in the centre of decision-making, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 29 Hulme, M. (2003). Abrupt climate change: can society cope?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 30 Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine A. and O’Riordan, T. (2003). A scoping study of UK user needs for managing climate futures. Part 1 of the pilotphase interactive integrated assessment process (Aurion Project), Tyndall Centre Working Paper 31 Xueguang Wu, Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. (2003). Integrating Renewables and CHP into the UK Electricity System: Investigation of the impact of network faults on the stability of large offshore wind farms, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 32 Pridmore, A., Bristow, A.L., May, A. D. and Tight, M.R. (2003). Climate Change, Impacts, Future Scenarios and the Role of Transport, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 33 Dessai, S., Hulme, M (2003). Does climate policy need probabilities?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 34 Tompkins, E. L. and Hurlston, L. (2003). Report to the Cayman Islands’ Government. Adaptation lessons learned from responding to tropical cyclones by the Cayman Islands’ Government, 1988 – 2002, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 35 Kröger, K. Fergusson, M. and Skinner, I. (2003). Critical Issues in Decarbonising Transport: The Role of Technologies, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 36 Ingham, A. and Ulph, A. (2003) Uncertainty, Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost of Carbon, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 37 Brooks, N. (2003). Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: a conceptual framework, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 38 Tompkins, E.L. and Adger, W.N. (2003). Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 39

Klein, R.J.T., Lisa Schipper, E. and Dessai, S. (2003), Integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate and development policy: three research questions, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 40 Watson, J. (2003), UK Electricity Scenarios for 2050, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 41 Kim, J. A. (2003), Sustainable Development and the CDM: A South African Case Study, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 42 Anderson, D. and Winne, S. (2003), Innovation and Threshold Effects in Technology Responses to Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 43 Shackley, S., McLachlan, C. and Gough, C. (2004) The Public Perceptions of Carbon Capture and Storage, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 44 Purdy, R. and Macrory, R. (2004) Geological carbon sequestration: critical legal issues, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 45 Watson, J., Tetteh, A., Dutton, G., Bristow, A., Kelly, C., Page, M. and Pridmore, A., (2004) UK Hydrogen Futures to 2050, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 46 Berkhout, F., Hertin, J. and Gann, D. M., (2004) Learning to adapt: Organisational adaptation to climate change impacts, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 47 Pan, H. (2004) The evolution of economic structure under technological development, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 48 Awerbuch, S. (2004) Restructuring our electricity networks to promote decarbonisation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 49 Powell, J.C., Peters, M.D., Ruddell, A. & Halliday, J. (2004) Fuel Cells for a Sustainable Future? Tyndall Centre Working Paper 50 Agnolucci, P., Barker, T. & Ekins, P. (2004) Hysteresis and energy demand: the Announcement Effects and the effects of the UK climate change levy, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 51 Agnolucci, P. (2004) Ex post evaluations of CO2 –Based Taxes: A Survey, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 52

Agnolucci, P. & Ekins, P. (2004) The Announcement Effect and environmental taxation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 53 Turnpenny, J., Carney, S., Haxeltine, A., & O’Riordan, T. (2004) Developing regional and local scenarios for climate change mitigation and adaptation, Part 1: A framing of the East of England, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 54 Mitchell, T.D. Carter, T.R., Jones, .P.D, Hulme, M. and New, M. (2004) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100), Tyndall Centre Working Paper 55 Vincent, K. (2004) Creating an index of social vulnerability to climate change for Africa, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 56 Shackley, S., Reiche, A. and Mander, S (2004) The Public Perceptions of Underground Coal Gasification (UCG): A Pilot Study, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 57 Bray, D and Shackley, S. (2004) The Social Simulation of The Public Perceptions of Weather Events and their Effect upon the Development of Belief in Anthropogenic Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 58 Anderson, D and Winne, S. (2004) Modelling Innovation and Threshold Effects In Climate Change Mitigation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 59 Few, R., Brown, K. and Tompkins, E.L. (2004) Scaling adaptation: climate change response and coastal management in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 60 Brooks, N. (2004) Drought in the African Sahel: Long term perspectives and future prospects, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 61 Barker, T. (2004) The transition to sustainability: a comparison of economics approaches, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 62 Few, R., Ahern, M., Matthies, F. and Kovats, S. (2004) Floods, health and climate change: a strategic review, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 63 Peters, M.D. and Powell, J.C. (2004) Fuel Cells for a Sustainable Future II, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 64

Adger, W. N., Brown, K. and Tompkins, E. L. (2004) The political economy of cross-scale networks in resource co-management, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 65 Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine, A., Lorenzoni, I., O’Riordan, T., and Jones, M., (2005) Mapping actors involved in climate change policy networks in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 66 Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine, A. and O’Riordan, T., (2005) Developing regional and local scenarios for climate change mitigation and adaptation: Part 2: Scenario creation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 67 Bleda, M. and Shackley, S. (2005) The formation of belief in climate change in business organisations: a dynamic simulation model, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 68 Tompkins, E. L. and Hurlston, L. A. (2005) Natural hazards and climate change: what knowledge is transferable?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 69 Abu-Sharkh, S., Li, R., Markvart, T., Ross, N., Wilson, P., Yao, R., Steemers, K., Kohler, J. and Arnold, R. (2005) Can Migrogrids Make a Major Contribution to UK Energy Supply?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 70 Boyd, E. Gutierrez, M. and Chang, M. (2005) Adapting small-scale CDM sinks projects to low-income communities, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 71 Lowe, T., Brown, K., Suraje Dessai, S., Doria, M., Haynes, K. and Vincent., K (2005) Does tomorrow ever come? Disaster narrative and public perceptions of climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 72 Walkden, M. (2005) Coastal process simulator scoping study, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 73 Ingham, I., Ma, J., and Ulph, A. M. (2005) How do the costs of adaptation affect optimal mitigation when there is uncertainty, irreversibility and learning?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 74 Fu, G., Hall, J. W. and Lawry, J. (2005) Beyond probability: new methods for representing uncertainty in projections of future climate, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 75

Agnolucci,. P (2005) The role of political uncertainty in the Danish renewable energy market, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 76 Barker, T., Pan, H., Köhler, J., Warren., R and Winne, S. (2005) Avoiding dangerous climate change by inducing technological progress: scenarios using a large-scale econometric model, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 77 Agnolucci,. P (2005) Opportunism and competition in the non-fossil fuel obligation market, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 78