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Electoral projections for the 2019 federal elections

Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2019


18 octobre 2019 tooclosetocall.ca
% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Atlantic 25.9 38.3 19.2 11.8 - 3.5
Quebec 15.7 32.5 13.3 5.6 29.8 2.1
Ontario 31.9 37.3 19.5 8.2 - 2.3
Prairies 45.5 20.4 22.4 6.0 - 4.0
Alberta 60.4 15.9 15.2 4.2 - 4.0
BC 30.0 25.8 25.9 13.9 - 2.8
Canada* 31.8 31.3 18.5 8.1 6.5 2.6

Seats/Sièges
Atlantic 7 20 5 0 0
Quebec 12 32 1 0 32 1
Ontario 39 66 16 0 0
Prairies 18 4 6 0 0
Alberta 33 0 1 0 0
BC 16 9 13 3 0 1
Territories 0 3 0 0 0

Canada 125 134 42 3 32 1 1

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.


Avalon 25% 45% 20% 11%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 19% 62% 9% 9%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 27% 56% 8% 9%
NFL

Labrador 23% 52% 16% 8%


Long Range Mountains 21% 55% 13% 11%
St. John's East 16% 33% 45% 6%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl 13% 39% 39% 9% 3%
Cardigan 25% 46% 13% 15%
Charlottetown 24% 37% 25% 14%
PEI
PEI Egmont 38% 30% 21% 11%
Malpeque 26% 43% 13% 18%
Cape Breton--Canso 24% 53% 11% 12% 3%
Central Nova 34% 40% 13% 13% 4%
Cumberland--Colchester 34% 45% 8% 12% 4%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 22% 39% 27% 12% 3%
Halifax 17% 33% 38% 12% 3%
NS

Halifax West 25% 49% 14% 12%


Kings--Hants 27% 53% 9% 12% 3%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 23% 29% 37% 11% 4%
South Shore--St. Margarets 31% 38% 19% 12% 4%
Sydney--Victoria 21% 52% 16% 12%
West Nova 34% 44% 9% 13% 4%
Acadie--Bathurst 17% 31% 41% 11% 0%
Beauséjour 19% 50% 17% 13% 3%
Fredericton 32% 31% 10% 27% 4%
Fundy Royal 45% 22% 20% 13% 5%
Madawaska--Restigouche 26% 36% 28% 10%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 42% 28% 18% 12% 5%


Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 29% 39% 18% 13% 4%
New Brunswick Southwest 46% 25% 15% 14% 5%
Saint John--Rothesay 38% 30% 20% 12% 4%
Tobique--Mactaquac 45% 28% 14% 14% 5%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 12% 32% 21% 6% 28% 1%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 9% 27% 26% 6% 31% 1%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 6% 45% 19% 6% 23% 2%
Alfred-Pellan 10% 43% 10% 6% 29% 2%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 13% 41% 10% 6% 30% 1%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 8% 38% 8% 5% 42% 0%
Beauce 27% 19% 0% 5% 17% 32%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
33% 24% 6% 5% 29% 2%
Beauport--Limoilou 28% 22% 14% 5% 26% 5%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 12% 21% 7% 6% 53% 1%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 50% 19% 0% 7% 22% 2%
Beloeil--Chambly 7% 25% 18% 6% 43% 2%
Berthier--Maskinongé 11% 14% 36% 1% 36% 1%
Bourassa 8% 53% 4% 6% 27% 2%
Brome--Missisquoi 12% 40% 9% 6% 31% 1%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 11% 46% 13% 5% 23% 2%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 39% 20% 8% 5% 23% 4%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 12% 36% 8% 5% 37% 1%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 43% 29% 3% 6% 18% 1%
Compton--Stanstead 14% 38% 12% 6% 30% 1%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 9% 49% 12% 6% 23% 2%
Drummond 18% 24% 14% 6% 37% 1%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 7% 36% 20% 5% 31% 0%
Gatineau 10% 52% 12% 6% 20% 0%
Hochelaga 6% 28% 19% 7% 38% 2%
Honoré-Mercier 11% 54% 5% 5% 22% 2%
Hull--Aylmer 10% 50% 17% 6% 18% 0%
Joliette 12% 27% 9% 6% 46% 1%
Jonquière 19% 22% 20% 5% 32% 1%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 7% 26% 16% 6% 43% 2%
La Prairie 10% 33% 11% 6% 38% 2%
Lac-Saint-Jean 35% 24% 14% 6% 20% 2%
Lac-Saint-Louis 15% 58% 3% 6% 17% 2%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 5% 38% 18% 6% 30% 2%
Laurentides--Labelle 12% 31% 9% 6% 42% 1%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 3% 26% 27% 7% 34% 3%
Laval--Les Îles 17% 46% 6% 6% 24% 2%
Lévis--Lotbinière 46% 19% 3% 5% 23% 5%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 8% 32% 13% 6% 39% 2%
QC

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 7% 27% 10% 15% 40% 2%


Louis-Hébert 21% 34% 9% 6% 27% 4%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 47% 18% 4% 5% 21% 5%
Manicouagan 12% 29% 1% 6% 51% 1%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 11% 39% 10% 6% 33% 2%
Mégantic--L'Érable 36% 27% 6% 6% 24% 2%
Mirabel 9% 24% 17% 6% 43% 2%
Montarville 9% 29% 13% 6% 40% 3%
Montcalm 9% 25% 10% 6% 49% 2%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
29% 26% 12% 5% 27% 1%
Mount Royal 33% 44% 1% 5% 16% 2%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 12% 52% 12% 6% 16% 2%
Outremont 8% 30% 29% 7% 23% 2%
Papineau 4% 51% 15% 7% 22% 1%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 9% 25% 13% 12% 40% 2%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 17% 52% 7% 5% 17% 2%
Pontiac 16% 53% 7% 6% 18% 1%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 41% 18% 10% 5% 22% 4%
Québec 19% 26% 15% 6% 30% 3%
Repentigny 10% 25% 10% 6% 47% 2%
Richmond--Arthabaska 33% 21% 9% 5% 30% 1%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
12% 26% 19% 5% 37% 1%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 9% 33% 16% 6% 34% 2%
Rivière-du-Nord 7% 24% 17% 6% 44% 2%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 3% 19% 38% 7% 31% 2%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 18% 25% 13% 6% 37% 1%
Saint-Jean 13% 32% 15% 6% 34% 1%
Saint-Laurent 17% 55% 2% 6% 18% 2%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 10% 63% 4% 5% 17% 2%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 17% 38% 6% 5% 33% 1%
Salaberry--Suroît 11% 27% 15% 5% 42% 1%
Shefford 14% 36% 8% 6% 36% 1%
Sherbrooke 11% 31% 23% 5% 30%
Terrebonne 10% 26% 12% 6% 45% 2%
Thérèse-De Blainville 11% 30% 11% 6% 38% 3%
Trois-Rivières 26% 27% 15% 5% 24% 2%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 12% 43% 11% 6% 27% 2%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 10% 45% 13% 8% 22% 2%
Vimy 12% 45% 7% 6% 28% 2%
Ajax 29% 46% 15% 8% 2%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 23% 25% 44% 5% 2%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 39% 38% 13% 8% 2%
Barrie--Innisfil 47% 28% 12% 9% 2%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 42% 33% 11% 11% 3%
Bay of Quinte 34% 44% 12% 7% 2%
Beaches--East York 14% 44% 32% 8% 2%
Brampton Centre 28% 40% 21% 8% 2%
Brampton East 19% 43% 28% 7% 2%
Brampton North 28% 40% 22% 8% 2%
Brampton South 29% 43% 17% 8% 2%
Brampton West 21% 50% 19% 8% 2%
Brantford--Brant 41% 28% 21% 7% 3%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 44% 32% 12% 9% 3%
Burlington 36% 37% 16% 10% 2%
Cambridge 39% 36% 14% 9% 2%
Carleton 47% 36% 6% 9% 2%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 39% 33% 20% 5% 3%
Davenport 9% 39% 42% 8% 2%
Don Valley East 27% 52% 12% 8% 2%
Don Valley North 35% 45% 10% 7% 2%
Don Valley West 35% 48% 8% 7% 3%
Dufferin--Caledon 36% 31% 15% 16% 2%
Durham 38% 27% 23% 10% 2%
Eglinton--Lawrence 40% 44% 8% 7% 3%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 51% 25% 16% 5% 3%
Essex 36% 13% 44% 4% 3%
Etobicoke Centre 35% 48% 9% 7% 2%
Etobicoke North 21% 57% 14% 6% 2%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 30% 48% 12% 8% 2%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 44% 32% 15% 7% 2%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 36% 46% 8% 7% 3%
Guelph 26% 42% 12% 17% 3%
Haldimand--Norfolk 46% 31% 14% 5% 2%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 45% 23% 20% 9% 3%
Hamilton Centre 15% 27% 46% 9% 3%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 25% 32% 34% 7% 2%
Hamilton Mountain 25% 25% 39% 7% 4%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 32% 41% 17% 8% 2%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 42% 35% 13% 8% 2%
Humber River--Black Creek 18% 62% 12% 7% 2%
Huron--Bruce 45% 31% 13% 8% 2%
Kanata--Carleton 39% 44% 7% 9% 2%
Kenora 29% 27% 37% 5% 2%
Kingston and the Islands 22% 49% 17% 10% 3%
King--Vaughan 38% 39% 13% 8% 2%
Kitchener Centre 30% 42% 17% 8% 3%
Kitchener South--Hespeler 37% 35% 16% 9% 4%
Kitchener--Conestoga 43% 35% 10% 8% 4%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 49% 24% 19% 6% 3%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 48% 25% 14% 9% 3%
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau48%
Lakes 33% 8% 9% 2%
London North Centre 32% 45% 15% 6% 2%
London West 36% 40% 15% 5% 3%
London--Fanshawe 29% 26% 37% 5% 3%
Markham--Stouffville 30% 33% 8% 9% 2% 18%
Markham--Thornhill 27% 46% 18% 8% 2%
Markham--Unionville 42% 34% 12% 9% 2%
Milton 38% 31% 17% 10% 3%
Mississauga Centre 28% 46% 16% 8% 2%
Ont.

Mississauga East--Cooksville 30% 45% 15% 8% 2%


Mississauga--Erin Mills 33% 41% 16% 8% 2%
Mississauga--Lakeshore 35% 39% 15% 9% 2%
Mississauga--Malton 22% 50% 19% 8% 2%
Mississauga--Streetsville 34% 39% 16% 9% 2%
Nepean 36% 45% 8% 8% 2%
Newmarket--Aurora 36% 36% 16% 9% 2%
Niagara Centre 30% 28% 33% 6% 2%
Niagara Falls 39% 28% 23% 7% 3%
Niagara West 50% 25% 13% 7% 4%
Nickel Belt 16% 35% 41% 6% 2%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 29% 45% 18% 6% 2%
Northumberland--Peterborough South 40% 35% 15% 8% 2%
Oakville 36% 40% 13% 10% 2%
Oakville North--Burlington 36% 37% 14% 9% 3%
Orléans 30% 52% 8% 8% 2%
Oshawa 32% 19% 37% 10% 2%
Ottawa Centre 14% 42% 32% 9% 3%
Ottawa South 24% 53% 12% 9% 2%
Ottawa West--Nepean 30% 49% 10% 9% 2%
Ottawa--Vanier 18% 50% 20% 9% 3%
Oxford 48% 26% 18% 6% 3%
Parkdale--High Park 11% 37% 41% 8% 3%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 43% 33% 12% 12%
Perth--Wellington 44% 29% 16% 8% 2%
Peterborough--Kawartha 35% 36% 19% 7% 2%
Pickering--Uxbridge 32% 41% 16% 9% 2%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 52% 27% 10% 8% 3%
Richmond Hill 37% 37% 15% 9% 2%
Sarnia--Lambton 39% 20% 33% 5% 3%
Sault Ste. Marie 31% 37% 24% 5% 2%
Scarborough Centre 30% 45% 13% 7% 5%
Scarborough North 25% 43% 24% 7% 2%
Scarborough Southwest 19% 46% 25% 8% 2%
Scarborough--Agincourt 35% 46% 10% 7% 2%
Scarborough--Guildwood 24% 54% 13% 7% 2%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 25% 54% 12% 7% 2%
Simcoe North 45% 32% 11% 10% 2%
Simcoe--Grey 48% 30% 10% 10% 2%
Spadina--Fort York 14% 49% 28% 7% 2%
St. Catharines 38% 36% 17% 7% 2%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 49% 32% 9% 8% 3%
Sudbury 21% 40% 30% 6% 2%
Thornhill 53% 27% 12% 8%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 21% 36% 32% 9% 2%
Thunder Bay--Superior North 17% 38% 25% 18% 2%
Timmins--James Bay 20% 26% 47% 5% 2%
Toronto Centre 11% 53% 28% 8%
Toronto--Danforth 8% 38% 42% 10% 2%
Toronto--St. Paul's 24% 50% 16% 8% 2%
University--Rosedale 15% 45% 29% 8% 2%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 37% 40% 12% 8% 3%
Waterloo 32% 43% 15% 8% 2%
Wellington--Halton Hills 51% 29% 8% 9% 2%
Whitby 36% 36% 17% 9% 2%
Willowdale 34% 48% 9% 7% 2%
Windsor West 21% 27% 46% 4% 2%
Windsor--Tecumseh 28% 29% 36% 4% 3%
York Centre 39% 45% 8% 7%
York South--Weston 17% 41% 31% 7% 4%
York--Simcoe 43% 28% 16% 11% 2%
Brandon--Souris 55% 22% 10% 9% 4%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
42% 30% 17% 7% 4%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 15% 27% 49% 5% 4%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 56% 15% 18% 8% 4%
Elmwood--Transcona 39% 9% 41% 6% 4%
Kildonan--St. Paul 44% 30% 18% 5% 4%
Portage--Lisgar 68% 10% 10% 7% 4%
Man.

Provencher 61% 19% 9% 7% 4%


Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 32% 37% 21% 6% 3%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 58% 16% 16% 7% 4%
Winnipeg Centre 15% 31% 42% 8% 3%
Winnipeg North 20% 47% 24% 6% 3%
Winnipeg South 38% 37% 16% 6% 4%
Winnipeg South Centre 32% 38% 20% 7% 3%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 64% 7% 20% 5% 4%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 69% 6% 15% 6% 4%
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 33% 24% 35% 5% 4%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek 66% 5% 20% 5% 4%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 57% 8% 25% 5% 4%
Prince Albert 52% 10% 30% 5% 4%
Regina--Lewvan 37% 17% 37% 6% 4%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 46% 12% 32% 6% 4%


Regina--Wascana 33% 44% 14% 5% 3%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 43% 16% 32% 6% 4%
Saskatoon--University 43% 14% 33% 5% 4%
Saskatoon West 35% 14% 42% 6% 4%
Souris--Moose Mountain 71% 4% 15% 5% 4%
Yorkton--Melville 61% 8% 22% 5% 4%
Banff--Airdrie 62% 19% 10% 5% 3%
Battle River--Crowfoot 78% 3% 11% 5% 4%
Bow River 77% 8% 9% 3% 3%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 46% 36% 10% 5% 3%
Calgary Confederation 47% 33% 11% 5% 3%
Calgary Forest Lawn 50% 26% 14% 5% 5%
Calgary Heritage 65% 16% 11% 4% 4%
Calgary Midnapore 67% 13% 12% 5% 3%
Calgary Nose Hill 61% 17% 13% 5% 5%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 61% 21% 10% 4% 3%
Calgary Shepard 66% 15% 11% 5% 3%
Calgary Signal Hill 61% 20% 9% 5% 4%
Calgary Skyview 42% 37% 13% 4% 4%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 37% 28% 27% 4% 4%
Edmonton Griesbach 43% 12% 36% 4% 5%
Edmonton Manning 48% 18% 26% 4% 4%
Edmonton Mill Woods 44% 32% 16% 4% 4%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 52% 20% 20% 4% 4%


Edmonton Strathcona 34% 22% 36% 4% 5%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 51% 25% 16% 3% 4%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 65% 15% 13% 4% 4%
Foothills 74% 7% 10% 5% 4%
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 60% 21% 11% 3% 5%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 71% 8% 11% 4% 5%
Lakeland 71% 7% 13% 4% 5%
Lethbridge 57% 12% 23% 4% 4%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 68% 12% 13% 4% 3%
Peace River--Westlock 68% 7% 17% 4% 4%
Red Deer--Mountain View 73% 7% 12% 4% 4%
Red Deer--Lacombe 69% 9% 15% 4% 3%
St. Albert--Edmonton 56% 20% 18% 3% 4%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 67% 11% 13% 4% 5%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 70% 9% 13% 4% 3%
Yellowhead 71% 8% 12% 4% 5%
Abbotsford 49% 24% 14% 10% 3%
Burnaby North--Seymour 31% 40% 16% 12%
Burnaby South 21% 17% 46% 8% 8%
Cariboo--Prince George 39% 23% 27% 9% 3%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 40% 28% 20% 9% 3%
Chilliwack--Hope 43% 25% 19% 10% 4%
Cloverdale--Langley City 36% 34% 17% 10% 3%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 34% 24% 28% 10% 5%
Courtenay--Alberni 29% 15% 38% 18%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 23% 16% 35% 23% 2%
Delta 34% 38% 16% 9% 3%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 18% 20% 34% 26% 2%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 31% 36% 23% 9% 2%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 38% 23% 28% 9% 3%
Kelowna--Lake Country 41% 36% 15% 5% 3%
Kootenay--Columbia 37% 10% 38% 11% 3%
Langley--Aldergrove 44% 28% 14% 11% 4%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 37% 27% 22% 10% 3%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 23% 11% 27% 36% 2%
New Westminster--Burnaby 21% 19% 44% 11% 5%
North Island--Powell River 26% 18% 39% 15% 2%
BC

North Okanagan--Shuswap 40% 21% 26% 10% 3%


BC North Vancouver 29% 46% 8% 15% 2%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 33% 22% 31% 11% 3%
Port Moody--Coquitlam 30% 21% 37% 9% 3%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
54% 16% 16% 10% 4%
Richmond Centre 45% 31% 12% 9% 3%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 20% 10% 9% 60% 2%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 27% 10% 50% 9% 3%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay 31% 19% 38% 9% 3%
South Surrey--White Rock 42% 33% 11% 10% 3%
Steveston--Richmond East 42% 34% 13% 10%
Surrey Centre 22% 34% 32% 10% 2%
Surrey--Newton 17% 45% 27% 8% 2%
Vancouver Centre 17% 48% 20% 12% 3%
Vancouver East 11% 22% 50% 15% 2%
Vancouver Granville 16% 25% 17% 9% 2% 31%
Vancouver Kingsway 21% 22% 45% 9% 3%
Vancouver Quadra 26% 51% 11% 10% 2%
Vancouver South 34% 41% 14% 8% 2%
Victoria 12% 19% 31% 34% 3%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky28%
Country44% 11% 15% 2%
Yukon 25% 47% 19% 7% 2%
Terr.

Northwest Territories 19% 41% 30% 8% 2%


Nunavut 27% 41% 26% 6%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.
** winning=getting the most seats