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Electoral projections for the 2019 federal elections

Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2019


October 19th 2019 tooclosetocall.ca
% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Atlantic 25.6 38.5 19.3 12.5 - 3.0
Quebec 15.1 32.7 12.7 5.9 29.7 2.1
Ontario 31.8 37.1 18.5 7.9 - 2.4
Prairies 44.7 23.4 22.2 4.7 - 4.1
Alberta 58.0 16.4 16.4 4.0 - 4.5
BC 30.9 26.4 25.1 13.3 - 3.0
Canada* 31.6 32.1 18.4 8.3 6.4 2.7

Seats/Sièges
Atlantic 7 21 4 0 0
Quebec 12 35 2 0 28 1
Ontario 39 66 16 0 0
Prairies 17 5 6 0 0
Alberta 33 0 1 0 0
BC 16 9 13 3 0 1
Territories 0 3 0 0 0

Canada 124 139 42 3 28 1 1

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.


Avalon 24% 45% 20% 12%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 18% 62% 9% 10%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 26% 56% 8% 10%
NFL

Labrador 22% 52% 16% 9%


Long Range Mountains 20% 55% 13% 12%
St. John's East 16% 33% 45% 7%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl 12% 39% 39% 10% 3%
Cardigan 25% 46% 13% 16%
Charlottetown 23% 37% 25% 15%
PEI
PEI Egmont 37% 30% 21% 12%
Malpeque 26% 43% 13% 18%
Cape Breton--Canso 23% 53% 11% 13% 3%
Central Nova 33% 40% 13% 14% 3%
Cumberland--Colchester 34% 45% 8% 13% 3%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 22% 39% 27% 13% 3%
Halifax 16% 33% 38% 13% 3%
NS

Halifax West 24% 49% 14% 13%


Kings--Hants 26% 53% 9% 13% 3%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 22% 29% 37% 12% 3%
South Shore--St. Margarets 30% 38% 19% 12% 3%
Sydney--Victoria 20% 52% 16% 12%
West Nova 33% 44% 9% 14% 4%
Acadie--Bathurst 16% 31% 41% 12% 0%
Beauséjour 19% 50% 17% 14% 3%
Fredericton 32% 31% 10% 28% 3%
Fundy Royal 45% 22% 20% 13% 4%
Madawaska--Restigouche 25% 36% 28% 11%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 41% 28% 18% 12% 4%


Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 29% 39% 18% 14% 3%
New Brunswick Southwest 46% 25% 15% 14% 4%
Saint John--Rothesay 38% 30% 20% 13% 4%
Tobique--Mactaquac 44% 28% 13% 15% 4%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 11% 32% 22% 6% 27% 2%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 8% 27% 27% 6% 30% 2%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 5% 46% 18% 6% 23% 2%
Alfred-Pellan 10% 44% 9% 6% 30% 2%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 12% 40% 11% 6% 29% 2%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 7% 37% 10% 5% 40% 2%
Beauce 26% 19% 0% 5% 17% 33%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
32% 24% 8% 5% 28% 3%
Beauport--Limoilou 28% 23% 12% 6% 27% 4%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 11% 21% 8% 6% 51% 2%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 49% 19% 0% 7% 22% 3%
Beloeil--Chambly 7% 25% 16% 6% 43% 2%
Berthier--Maskinongé 10% 15% 37% 1% 35% 2%
Bourassa 7% 54% 3% 6% 28% 2%
Brome--Missisquoi 12% 40% 11% 6% 30% 2%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 10% 47% 12% 6% 23% 2%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 40% 21% 6% 6% 24% 3%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 11% 36% 10% 6% 36% 2%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 41% 29% 5% 6% 17% 2%
Compton--Stanstead 13% 37% 14% 6% 29% 2%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 8% 50% 11% 6% 23% 2%
Drummond 17% 24% 15% 6% 36% 2%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 7% 36% 21% 5% 30% 2%
Gatineau 9% 51% 13% 6% 20% 2%
Hochelaga 5% 29% 18% 7% 39% 2%
Honoré-Mercier 10% 56% 4% 6% 23% 2%
Hull--Aylmer 9% 49% 18% 6% 17% 2%
Joliette 11% 26% 10% 6% 44% 2%
Jonquière 18% 22% 21% 5% 31% 2%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 6% 27% 15% 6% 44% 2%
La Prairie 10% 34% 10% 6% 39% 2%
Lac-Saint-Jean 34% 23% 15% 6% 19% 3%
Lac-Saint-Louis 14% 59% 2% 7% 17% 2%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 5% 39% 18% 7% 30% 2%
Laurentides--Labelle 11% 30% 11% 6% 40% 2%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 2% 28% 25% 8% 34% 3%
Laval--Les Îles 16% 47% 4% 6% 24% 2%
Lévis--Lotbinière 48% 19% 1% 5% 24% 4%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 7% 33% 11% 7% 40% 2%
QC

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 7% 27% 8% 16% 40% 2%


Louis-Hébert 21% 35% 7% 6% 28% 3%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 48% 19% 2% 5% 22% 4%
Manicouagan 11% 28% 3% 6% 49% 2%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 10% 40% 8% 6% 33% 2%
Mégantic--L'Érable 34% 26% 8% 6% 23% 3%
Mirabel 8% 24% 15% 6% 44% 2%
Montarville 9% 30% 12% 6% 41% 3%
Montcalm 8% 26% 8% 6% 49% 2%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
28% 26% 13% 5% 26% 2%
Mount Royal 32% 44% 0% 5% 16% 3%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 12% 53% 11% 7% 17% 2%
Outremont 7% 31% 29% 8% 23% 2%
Papineau 3% 52% 14% 7% 22% 1%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 8% 25% 12% 12% 41% 2%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 17% 53% 6% 5% 17% 2%
Pontiac 15% 52% 9% 6% 17% 2%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 42% 19% 8% 5% 23% 3%
Québec 18% 33% 10% 6% 30% 2%
Repentigny 9% 26% 8% 6% 48% 2%
Richmond--Arthabaska 32% 21% 10% 5% 29% 2%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
11% 26% 21% 5% 36% 2%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 9% 34% 15% 6% 34% 2%
Rivière-du-Nord 7% 25% 15% 7% 44% 2%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 2% 19% 37% 7% 32% 2%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 17% 25% 14% 6% 36% 2%
Saint-Jean 12% 31% 16% 6% 33% 2%
Saint-Laurent 16% 56% 1% 6% 19% 2%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 9% 64% 3% 6% 17% 2%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 16% 38% 7% 6% 32% 2%
Salaberry--Suroît 11% 26% 16% 5% 40% 2%
Shefford 13% 35% 10% 6% 35% 2%
Sherbrooke 10% 31% 24% 6% 29%
Terrebonne 10% 26% 11% 6% 45% 2%
Thérèse-De Blainville 11% 31% 10% 7% 39% 3%
Trois-Rivières 25% 27% 17% 5% 24% 3%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 11% 44% 10% 6% 27% 2%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 9% 46% 12% 8% 22% 2%
Vimy 12% 46% 6% 7% 28% 2%
Ajax 29% 46% 15% 9% 2%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 24% 26% 44% 4% 3%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 39% 38% 13% 9% 2%
Barrie--Innisfil 49% 29% 11% 8% 3%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 43% 34% 10% 9% 3%
Bay of Quinte 35% 46% 11% 6% 2%
Beaches--East York 14% 44% 31% 8% 2%
Brampton Centre 28% 40% 21% 9% 2%
Brampton East 19% 43% 28% 8% 2%
Brampton North 28% 40% 22% 9% 2%
Brampton South 30% 43% 17% 9% 2%
Brampton West 21% 50% 18% 8% 2%
Brantford--Brant 42% 29% 21% 5% 4%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 46% 33% 11% 7% 3%
Burlington 35% 39% 13% 10% 2%
Cambridge 40% 38% 13% 7% 2%
Carleton 48% 37% 5% 8% 3%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 40% 34% 20% 3% 3%
Davenport 9% 39% 41% 9% 2%
Don Valley East 27% 52% 11% 8% 2%
Don Valley North 35% 46% 9% 8% 2%
Don Valley West 35% 48% 7% 7% 3%
Dufferin--Caledon 36% 31% 15% 16% 2%
Durham 38% 27% 22% 11% 2%
Eglinton--Lawrence 40% 44% 6% 7% 3%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 53% 25% 16% 3% 3%
Essex 37% 13% 45% 2% 3%
Etobicoke Centre 35% 48% 8% 7% 2%
Etobicoke North 21% 58% 13% 7% 2%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 30% 49% 11% 8% 2%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 45% 33% 14% 6% 3%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 37% 48% 7% 5% 3%
Guelph 26% 44% 11% 16% 3%
Haldimand--Norfolk 48% 32% 14% 4% 3%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 46% 24% 20% 8% 3%
Hamilton Centre 14% 28% 47% 7% 4%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 25% 33% 35% 5% 2%
Hamilton Mountain 26% 26% 39% 5% 4%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 32% 42% 16% 7% 2%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 43% 36% 12% 6% 3%
Humber River--Black Creek 18% 62% 11% 7% 2%
Huron--Bruce 47% 32% 13% 6% 3%
Kanata--Carleton 40% 45% 6% 7% 2%
Kenora 29% 28% 37% 3% 3%
Kingston and the Islands 22% 51% 17% 8% 3%
King--Vaughan 38% 39% 13% 8% 2%
Kitchener Centre 31% 43% 16% 7% 3%
Kitchener South--Hespeler 37% 36% 15% 7% 4%
Kitchener--Conestoga 44% 37% 9% 6% 4%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 50% 25% 18% 4% 3%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 50% 26% 14% 7% 4%
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau49%
Lakes 34% 7% 7% 3%
London North Centre 32% 47% 14% 4% 2%
London West 37% 42% 14% 3% 4%
London--Fanshawe 30% 27% 37% 3% 3%
Markham--Stouffville 30% 33% 8% 9% 2% 17%
Markham--Thornhill 27% 45% 17% 9% 2%
Markham--Unionville 42% 34% 12% 10% 2%
Milton 38% 36% 13% 10% 3%
Mississauga Centre 28% 45% 16% 9% 2%
Ont.

Mississauga East--Cooksville 30% 45% 15% 8% 2%


Mississauga--Erin Mills 33% 41% 16% 8% 2%
Mississauga--Lakeshore 35% 39% 14% 9% 2%
Mississauga--Malton 22% 50% 18% 8% 2%
Mississauga--Streetsville 34% 39% 15% 9% 2%
Nepean 37% 47% 7% 6% 2%
Newmarket--Aurora 37% 36% 15% 10% 2%
Niagara Centre 30% 29% 33% 5% 3%
Niagara Falls 40% 29% 23% 5% 3%
Niagara West 52% 26% 12% 6% 5%
Nickel Belt 16% 37% 41% 4% 2%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 30% 47% 17% 4% 2%
Northumberland--Peterborough South 41% 36% 14% 7% 3%
Oakville 36% 40% 12% 10% 2%
Oakville North--Burlington 36% 37% 14% 10% 3%
Orléans 30% 55% 7% 6% 2%
Oshawa 32% 20% 36% 10% 2%
Ottawa Centre 13% 44% 32% 8% 3%
Ottawa South 24% 56% 11% 7% 3%
Ottawa West--Nepean 30% 51% 9% 7% 2%
Ottawa--Vanier 18% 53% 19% 7% 3%
Oxford 49% 27% 17% 4% 3%
Parkdale--High Park 11% 37% 40% 9% 3%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 44% 35% 11% 10%
Perth--Wellington 46% 30% 15% 6% 3%
Peterborough--Kawartha 36% 38% 19% 6% 2%
Pickering--Uxbridge 32% 41% 16% 10% 2%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 54% 28% 9% 6% 3%
Richmond Hill 37% 37% 15% 9% 2%
Sarnia--Lambton 40% 21% 33% 3% 3%
Sault Ste. Marie 32% 39% 23% 4% 3%
Scarborough Centre 30% 45% 12% 8% 5%
Scarborough North 25% 43% 23% 7% 2%
Scarborough Southwest 19% 47% 24% 8% 2%
Scarborough--Agincourt 36% 46% 8% 7% 2%
Scarborough--Guildwood 25% 55% 12% 7% 2%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 25% 54% 11% 8% 2%
Simcoe North 46% 33% 10% 8% 3%
Simcoe--Grey 49% 31% 9% 8% 3%
Spadina--Fort York 14% 49% 27% 8% 2%
St. Catharines 39% 37% 17% 5% 2%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 50% 33% 7% 6% 3%
Sudbury 21% 42% 30% 5% 2%
Thornhill 53% 27% 12% 8%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 21% 38% 32% 7% 2%
Thunder Bay--Superior North 17% 39% 25% 17% 2%
Timmins--James Bay 20% 27% 48% 3% 3%
Toronto Centre 11% 53% 27% 8%
Toronto--Danforth 8% 38% 42% 11% 2%
Toronto--St. Paul's 25% 50% 15% 9% 2%
University--Rosedale 16% 45% 29% 9% 2%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 37% 40% 11% 8% 3%
Waterloo 33% 44% 14% 6% 2%
Wellington--Halton Hills 53% 30% 7% 8% 3%
Whitby 36% 36% 17% 10% 2%
Willowdale 35% 48% 8% 8% 2%
Windsor West 21% 27% 47% 2% 3%
Windsor--Tecumseh 29% 30% 37% 2% 3%
York Centre 40% 45% 7% 7%
York South--Weston 17% 41% 30% 8% 4%
York--Simcoe 43% 28% 16% 11% 2%
Brandon--Souris 53% 25% 9% 8% 4%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
41% 34% 16% 5% 4%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 14% 30% 48% 4% 4%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 54% 19% 17% 6% 4%
Elmwood--Transcona 37% 13% 41% 5% 4%
Kildonan--St. Paul 42% 33% 17% 4% 4%
Portage--Lisgar 66% 14% 10% 6% 4%
Man.

Provencher 59% 23% 8% 6% 4%


Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 31% 40% 21% 5% 3%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 56% 20% 15% 5% 4%
Winnipeg Centre 14% 34% 42% 6% 3%
Winnipeg North 19% 50% 23% 5% 3%
Winnipeg South 37% 40% 15% 4% 4%
Winnipeg South Centre 31% 41% 19% 5% 3%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 63% 9% 19% 3% 4%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 68% 8% 15% 5% 5%
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 32% 26% 35% 3% 4%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek 65% 7% 20% 4% 4%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 56% 11% 25% 4% 4%
Prince Albert 51% 12% 29% 4% 4%
Regina--Lewvan 36% 19% 37% 4% 4%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 45% 14% 32% 5% 4%


Regina--Wascana 33% 46% 13% 4% 3%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 42% 18% 32% 4% 4%
Saskatoon--University 42% 17% 33% 4% 4%
Saskatoon West 34% 16% 41% 4% 4%
Souris--Moose Mountain 70% 6% 15% 4% 4%
Yorkton--Melville 60% 10% 21% 4% 4%
Banff--Airdrie 60% 20% 11% 5% 4%
Battle River--Crowfoot 76% 4% 12% 4% 4%
Bow River 75% 8% 10% 3% 4%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 44% 37% 11% 4% 4%
Calgary Confederation 45% 34% 13% 5% 4%
Calgary Forest Lawn 47% 27% 15% 5% 6%
Calgary Heritage 62% 17% 13% 4% 4%
Calgary Midnapore 65% 13% 13% 5% 4%
Calgary Nose Hill 59% 17% 14% 4% 5%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 59% 22% 11% 4% 4%
Calgary Shepard 64% 15% 12% 5% 4%
Calgary Signal Hill 59% 21% 10% 4% 5%
Calgary Skyview 40% 38% 14% 4% 4%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 35% 29% 28% 4% 4%
Edmonton Griesbach 40% 13% 38% 4% 6%
Edmonton Manning 45% 19% 28% 3% 4%
Edmonton Mill Woods 41% 33% 17% 3% 5%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 49% 21% 21% 3% 5%


Edmonton Strathcona 36% 17% 38% 4% 6%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 49% 26% 17% 3% 5%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 63% 15% 14% 3% 5%
Foothills 72% 8% 11% 4% 5%
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 58% 22% 12% 3% 5%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 69% 9% 13% 4% 5%
Lakeland 69% 8% 15% 3% 5%
Lethbridge 55% 13% 25% 4% 4%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 66% 12% 14% 4% 4%
Peace River--Westlock 66% 7% 19% 4% 5%
Red Deer--Mountain View 71% 8% 13% 4% 5%
Red Deer--Lacombe 67% 9% 16% 4% 4%
St. Albert--Edmonton 53% 20% 19% 3% 4%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 65% 12% 14% 4% 5%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 68% 10% 15% 4% 4%
Yellowhead 69% 8% 14% 4% 5%
Abbotsford 49% 23% 14% 11% 3%
Burnaby North--Seymour 32% 40% 16% 12%
Burnaby South 22% 18% 45% 7% 8%
Cariboo--Prince George 38% 23% 27% 10% 3%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 40% 28% 19% 10% 3%
Chilliwack--Hope 43% 24% 18% 11% 4%
Cloverdale--Langley City 37% 35% 16% 10% 3%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 34% 24% 27% 9% 5%
Courtenay--Alberni 32% 16% 36% 16%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 25% 18% 34% 20% 3%
Delta 35% 39% 15% 9% 3%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 20% 21% 33% 23% 2%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 32% 36% 22% 8% 3%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 36% 21% 31% 10% 3%
Kelowna--Lake Country 41% 36% 14% 6% 3%
Kootenay--Columbia 37% 10% 37% 13% 3%
Langley--Aldergrove 44% 28% 13% 10% 4%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 37% 27% 22% 12% 3%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 26% 13% 26% 33% 2%
New Westminster--Burnaby 22% 20% 43% 10% 5%
North Island--Powell River 29% 19% 38% 12% 3%
BC

North Okanagan--Shuswap 40% 20% 26% 11% 3%


BC North Vancouver 29% 46% 8% 14% 3%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 34% 23% 30% 10% 3%
Port Moody--Coquitlam 31% 21% 36% 9% 3%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
53% 15% 16% 11% 4%
Richmond Centre 46% 32% 11% 8% 3%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 22% 11% 7% 57% 2%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 27% 10% 50% 10% 3%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay 30% 19% 38% 10% 3%
South Surrey--White Rock 43% 34% 11% 9% 4%
Steveston--Richmond East 43% 35% 12% 9%
Surrey Centre 23% 35% 31% 9% 2%
Surrey--Newton 18% 46% 26% 8% 2%
Vancouver Centre 17% 48% 20% 12% 3%
Vancouver East 11% 22% 49% 15% 2%
Vancouver Granville 16% 26% 16% 9% 2% 31%
Vancouver Kingsway 21% 22% 45% 9% 4%
Vancouver Quadra 26% 51% 11% 10% 2%
Vancouver South 34% 41% 14% 8% 3%
Victoria 15% 21% 30% 31% 3%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky29%
Country45% 10% 15% 2%
Yukon 24% 47% 18% 8% 3%
Terr.

Northwest Territories 18% 42% 30% 8% 3%


Nunavut 26% 41% 26% 7%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.
** winning=getting the most seats