Potential for storage of carbon dioxide in the rocks beneath the East Irish Sea �

Karen Kirk February 2006

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Working Paper 100

Potential for storage of carbon dioxide in the rocks beneath the East Irish Sea
Karen Kirk
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and British Geological Survey Keyworth Nottingham NG12 5GG Email: klsh@bgs.ac.uk Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 100

Please note that Tyndall working papers are "work in progress". Whilst they are commented on by Tyndall researchers, they have not been subject to a full peer review. The accuracy of this work and the conclusions reached are the responsibility of the author(s) alone and not the Tyndall Centre. The data and interpretation given in this report are to be used only for the Tyndall Centre for climate change project. Requests to use this report for any other purpose must be directed to the British Geological Survey, who retains the rights for its use.

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Summary The potential for geological carbon dioxide (CO2) storage in the East Irish Sea Basin, UK was assessed as part of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change theme: “Decarbonising Modern Societies” - a study aimed at identifying CO2 sources and sinks suitable for geological storage and assessing the geological CO2 storage concept as a bridging strategy towards renewable and new energy technologies. The East Irish Sea Basin, which lies between the Isle of Man and the west coast of Cumbria, Lancashire and North Wales, has considerable potential to store CO2, particularly in its oil and gas fields. Its storage capacity was evaluated because it is well placed to receive CO2 from power plant and other industrial sources in North Wales and Northwest England. The main reservoir rocks in the East Irish Sea Basin form part of the Sherwood Sandstone Group, which is the equivalent of the Bunter Sandstone Formation in the southern North Sea. Most of the potential to store CO2 lies in the Ormskirk Sandstone Formation (the uppermost Formation in Sherwood Sandstone Group), to which the Mercia Mudstone Group forms an effective cap rock. The best storage potential is likely to be in the larger gas fields such as Morecambe South and North when they are depleted. The calculated CO2 storage capacity in the oil and gas fields of the East Irish Sea Basin is approximately 1047 million tonnes. Further storage potential exists in newly discovered fields where there is no data yet in the public domain. Further potential may also exist in non-hydrocarbon-bearing closed structures in the Ormskirk Sandstone. The total storage capacity of these structures is estimated to be 630 million tonnes. However, the fact that they do not contain hydrocarbons suggests the possibility that they may not be gastight or they do not lie on the migration path of any oil and gas generated in the basin. Keywords: Carbon dioxide, Geological Storage, bridging strategy, East Irish Sea, Ormskirk Sandstone Formation

1 Introduction The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas is the major cause of rising atmospheric levels of the greenhouse gas CO2. This has an impact on the on the environment on a global scale because it results in climate change. Geological storage of CO2 may be able help reduce the UK’s CO2 emissions. In the UK, about one third of the man-made CO2 comes from power plants. It is possible to capture this at source, then transport it by pipeline it to suitable storage sites where it could be injected into the rocks deep beneath the ground. Most of the UK potential is located offshore in the North Sea and in the East Irish Sea basins. This potential lies within traps in saline aquifers and hydrocarbon fields. This report addresses storage in the East Irish Sea Basin, which lies between the Isle of Man and the west coast of Cumbria, Lancashire and North Wales. It has considerable potential to store CO2, particularly in its oil and gas fields. It is also well placed to receive CO2 from the nearby major power plants such as Connah’s Quay and Fiddler’s Ferry and the many other industrial sources in North Wales and Northwest England (Figure 1).

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Figure 1 Maps showing the location of the East Irish Sea basin and the surrounding carbon dioxide point sources

2 Subsidence history The East Irish Sea Basin began to subside during Permian times, approximately 210 million years ago. Basin subsidence continued for most of the Permian, Triassic and Jurassic periods, allowing sediments to accumulate within it, but it was uplifted and subjected to erosion in latest Jurassic and earliest Cretaceous times. Subsidence resumed but stopped at the end of the Cretaceous period when the basin was again subject to uplift and erosion, which may still be continuing (Stuart & Cowan 1991 figure 12), albeit at very slow rates. Thus there have been two periods of erosion in the East Irish Sea basin. The first, at the end of Jurassic times, removed any Upper and Middle Jurassic strata that were deposited. The second, which started some 65 million years ago at the end of the Cretaceous period, removed any Cretaceous strata that were deposited. Consequently, the youngest strata preserved in the basin are Lower Jurassic rocks. See figure 2.

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Figure 2 Stratigraphy of the East Irish Sea Basin

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3 Reservoir unit The main reservoir rocks in the East Irish Sea Basin form the Sherwood Sandstone Group. The Sherwood Sandstone Group extends westwards over most of the East Irish Sea Basin from onshore UK (Figure 3), and is the equivalent of the Bunter Sandstone Formation in the southern North Sea. It is more than 2000 m thick in the centre of the East Irish Sea Basin (Figure 4) and has an average thickness of 1450m (Jackson et al, 1987). Most of the hydrocarbon discoveries are entirely within the uppermost unit of the Sherwood Sandstone Group; the Ormskirk Sandstone Formation. Discoveries also extend downwards into the upper parts of the St Bees Sandstone formation (Figure 2). The top of the Ormskirk Sandstone Formation lies at depths of 250-3000m (Figure 5). It has an average thickness of 250m. The Ormskirk Sandstone Formation demonstrates all of the required characteristics for CO2 storage including closed structures (traps for buoyant fluids), high porosity and permeability, and it is overlain by an effective seal, the Mercia Mudstone Group.

Figure 3 Map showing the extent of the Sherwood Sandstone Group and the Ormskirk Sandstone Formation

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Figure 4 Thickness of the Sherwood Sandstone Group in and around the Irish Sea (adapted from Jackson et al. 1995)

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Figure 5 Depth map of the top Ormskirk Sandstone Formation in the East Irish Sea (adapted from the BGS East Irish Sea, special sheet edition)

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3.1 Porosity and permeability of the Ormskirk Sandstone There are huge porosity and permeability variations in the Ormskirk Sandstone. These are the result of diagenesis - the post-burial alteration of the original sandstone (Levison, 1988; Meadows et al. 1993). Porosities range from 8–30%, and permeabilities from 0.05-10000 mD. The most important diagenetic effect is the precipitation of illite within the pore spaces. Thin illite crystals (small clay plates) can grow perpendicular to the sandstone grain faces, making it more difficult for fluids to pass through the reservoir. They clog up the pore throats (pathways between pore spaces) affecting the permeability rather than the porosity of the reservoir (Ebbern, 1981), Table 1. Average Porosity % (Illite-Free) 19 19.6 8-12 Average Porosity % (Illite affected) 14 13 6-11 12-17 9-15 Average Average Permeability mD Permeability mD (Illite-Free) (Illite-affected) 1000 500 1 1000 180 250 1 0.05 30 25

Field Name Douglas Lennox Millom

Morecambe North 9-15 Morecambe South 8-12

Table 1. Known average porosities/permeabilities of the illite-free/illite-affected Ormskirk Sandstone

Illite precipitation occurred during burial, after hydrocarbons first migrated into the Ormskirk Sandstone. The illite-affected sandstones formed beneath a palaeo (ancient) - gas/water contact (Figure 6). Above this contact the sandstones remained illite-free because of the presence of gas, formed in early Jurassic times, in the pore spaces (Macchi et al. 1990; Woodward et al, 1987). Potassium-Argon radiometric dating indicates that illite precipitation occurred Early to Mid-Jurassic, approximately 180 million years ago (Stuart & Cowan 1991). The illite-affected layer in the South Morecambe field is >304 metres thick in the north of the field, but only about 137 metres thick in the south of the field, where it passes downwards into sandstones characterised by poorly developed fibrous illite. It is not, therefore, completely ubiquitous outside the oil and gas fields, giving hope that there might be reasonable permeability in some of the non-hydrocarbon-bearing closures. However, the presence of platy illite in the Sherwood Sandstone may greatly limit the amount of CO2 which can be stored within the non-hydrocarbon-bearing closed structures that are described below.

Figure 6 Simplified diagram illustrating the relationship of the palaeo-gas/water contact with the illite-free/illite-affected areas of the reservoir (not to scale)

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3.2 Caprock/seal The Mercia Mudstone Group forms an effective seal over the top of the Ormskirk Sandstone, this is proven by the hydrocarbon discoveries in this area (Figure 7). Up to 3200m thick in the East Irish Sea Basin (Jackson et al. 1987), it comprises silty mudstones interbedded with commonly thick units of halite (rock salt). Rock salt comprises some 35 to 55 percent of the Basinal Mercia Mudstone succession, and occurs at 5 levels (Jackson et al. 1995). It is almost impermeable unless fractured.

Figure 7 Extent of the Mercia Mudstone Group in and around the Irish Sea (adapted from Jackson et al. 1995)

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4 CO2 Storage Potential The major CO2 storage potential in the East Irish Sea Basin is within: 1. hydrocarbon fields 2. structures within which gas could potentially be trapped but which do not contain hydrocarbons (reservoir rocks that contain saline water in their pore spaces; the socalled saline aquifers). 4.1 CO2 storage capacity of the oil and gas fields in the East Irish Sea Basin Both oil and gas fields are found in the East Irish Sea Basin (Table 2 shows the producing fields and Figure 8 shows additional discoveries), indicating that the reservoir rocks present are capable of storing buoyant fluids. Oil and gas generation probably started in Jurassic times, but the Jurassic accumulations of oil and gas that are believed to have developed in most of the fields are thought to have escaped during the first period of basin uplift and erosion - at the end of the Jurassic times (Bastin et al. 2003, Stuart & Cowan 1991, Cowan & Boycott-Brown 2003, Yaliz & Chapman 2003, Yaliz & Taylor 2003, Yaliz & McKim 2003). The oil and gas presently found, for example, in the South Morecambe field, was probably trapped in latest Cretaceous to early Tertiary times (Bastin et al. 2003) and thus may have been stored for some 50 million years or so. Table 2 shows the estimated CO2 storage capacity of most of the gas and oil fields in the East Irish Sea Basin. No data is available for the Calder, Darwen, Hamilton East and Crossans fields and these have not been included in the storage capacity calculations; they represent additional unquantified storage capacity. The storage capacity of the other gas fields was estimated according to the following formula (Wildenborg et al. 2004): MCO2 = (VGAS (stp) / Bg) x ρCO2 (Equation 1) Where: MCO2 = CO2 storage capacity (106 tonnes) Stp = standard temperature and pressure VGAS (stp) = volume of ultimately recoverable gas at stp (109 m3) Bg = gas expansion factor (from reservoir conditions to stp) ρCO2 = density of CO2 at reservoir conditions (kg m-3) The volume of ultimately recoverable gas at stp and the gas expansion factor were obtained from the DTI oil and gas website, Meadows et al. (1997) and Gluyas & Hichens (2003). The density of CO2 at reservoir conditions was calculated from the reservoir temperature and pressure of the individual fields. The main problem with Equation 1 is that it assumes that all the pore space originally occupied by the ultimately recoverable reserves of natural gas could be filled with CO2. There is uncertainty about this because the reservoir may compact slightly as the pore fluid pressure within it decreases. Moreover water invasion may reduce the pore space available for CO2 storage. Ideally, the percentage of the pore space originally occupied by natural gas that could subsequently be filled with CO2 would be determined using numerical reservoir simulations. However, no reservoir simulations were available and in their absence the following factors have been used to adapt Equation 1 (from studies by Bachu & Shaw (2003) on oil and gas fields in Alberta): 1. In gas fields with depletion drive, i.e. those where the wells are opened up and the pressure in the gas field simply depletes as it would if the gas were being produced from a sealed tank, it is assumed that 90% of the pore space could be occupied by CO2. 2. In gas fields with water drive, i.e. those where water encroaches into the pore space formerly occupied by the produced natural gas reserves, it is assumed that 65% of the pore space could be occupied by CO2.

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The Douglas oil field has no gas cap and is being water-flooded to maintain reservoir pressure during production. This means that little of the pore space formerly occupied by the produced oil reserves will be available for CO2 storage when water flooding ceases. The absence of a gas cap does not necessarily imply that the field is not gas tight. Gases originally present are believed to have been removed by a process called water washing, in which gas is dissolved by ground waters causing a low gas/oil ratio (Yaliz & McKim, 2003). The storage capacity for Douglas was calculated by assuming that at some stage in its development the field would undergo enhanced oil recovery using CO2 as an injectant. A 7% incremental oil recovery could be achieved as a result of enhanced oil recovery using CO2. The Lennox oil field consists of a thin oil column (44 m) overlain by a thick gas cap (232 m). In the early stages of production, the oil and its dissolved gas were produced. The dissolved gas was separated from oil, and injected into the gas cap, along with gas from the Douglas field, to maintain pressure during production of the oil. Gas production was scheduled to begin in 2004 (Yaliz & Chapman 2003). It is likely that water drive will be observed when gas production starts. Because the oil was to all intents and purposes replaced by gas during its production, the CO2 storage capacity of the Lennox field was calculated by treating the field as a gas field with water drive.
Field name Ultimately Recoverable Reserves billion cubic metres (bcm) 146.8 27.9 14.33 10.31 6.07 5.34 2.87 1.36 Gas Initial P Initial P Initial T Expansio psia bara Celsius n Factor (GEF) 145 143 108 125 128 120 128 128 1860 1800 1404 1620 128 124 97 112 0 106 0 0 32 33 30 30 CO2 density drive (reservoir mechanism conditions) kg/m3 806 792 764 795 788 784 788 788 D D W W U W U U CO2 storage capacity 106 tonnes 734.4 139.1 65.9 42.6 24.3 22.7 11.5 5.4

South Morecambe North Morecambe Hamilton Lennox (gas cap) Millom Hamilton North Dalton Bains Calder Darwen Hamilton East Crossans Subtotal

1535

30

1045.9
7% OOIP bcm FVF

Douglas (oil) 0.00224 Subtotal Total
Notes:

1.08

1125

78

30

685

WI

1.7 1.7 1047.6

where unknown, GEF (Gas Expansion Factor) is taken as average of known GEF's where unknown, CO2 density is taken as average of calculated CO2 densities drive mechanism: D = depletion, W = significant water drive, WI = water injection, GI = gas injection, U = unknown

Table 2 CO2 Storage capacities of the oil and gas fields in the East Irish Sea Basin

To put these figures in context, the nearby Connah's Quay power plant on the Dee Estuary, (Figure 8) emitted 4.3 Million tonnes of CO2 in 2002. The estimated total CO2 storage

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capacity available in the East Irish Sea Basin oil and gas fields amounts to some 243 years of emissions from this plant. However, given a plant lifetime of 25 years, and the fact that CO2 capture would itself create significant extra emissions, it is clear that only the North Morecambe and South Morecambe fields have the potential to store the lifetime emissions from such a plant. The location of oil and gas fields accessible from the Point of Ayr and Barrow Shore Terminals is shown in Figure 8. Additional significant potential currently accessible from the Barrow terminal includes Millom and Dalton. A combination of the Hamilton, Lennox and Hamilton North fields, all currently accessible from the Point of Ayr terminal, could also be used. It is unlikely that any of the fields smaller than Dalton would be used for CO2 storage from a large power plant such as Connah's Quay as they would have a very short operational lifetime. Moreover, under the assumptions made above, little CO2 would be stored as a result of EOR in the Douglas field.

Figure 8 Map of the oil and gas fields in the East Irish Sea

4.1.1 Further information on the oil and gas fields of the East Irish Sea basin The Morecambe field (Figure 8) is volumetrically the second largest gas field on the UK continental shelf. It contains 12.1% of the proven UK gas reserves and is divided into north

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and south fields by a deep narrow graben filled by the Mercia Mudstone Group. Morecambe’s main reservoir lies within the Ormskirk Sandstone Formation, which on average is 250m thick, though in crestal parts of the South Morecambe field, the top 200m of the St Bees Sandstone Formation is above the gas-water contact (1143m). The north and south Morecambe fields together comprise approximately 83% of the available storage capacity in the oil and gas fields of the East Irish Sea. The development plan for south Morecambe is based on using the facility for high rate seasonal gas supplies during the winter months; the first gas was produced in January 1985. South Morecambe has 34 producing wells, the top of the gas reservoir is 900m below sea level and the original recoverable reserves were 5.1 trillion cubic feet (tcf). It is believed that this reservoir shows tank-like behaviour in that there appears to be no evidence of water influx or of further significant gases being introduced from the surrounding rocks (Bastin et al. 2003). The design life for the facilities here is 40 years, and they were installed in 1990. This site is therefore not likely to be available for storing CO2 until at least the year 2030. Production at the Millom and Dalton fields began in 1999, with estimated combined recoverable reserves of 300 billion cubic feet (bcf). The expected lifespan of these two fields is 20 years. The earliest therefore that they would be expected to be available for CO2 storage is approximately 2019. The Rivers fields (Calder, Crossans, Darwen, Asland and Hodder) are only now being developed and coming on line. Production started at Calder in 2004, whilst Crossans and Darwen are to be implemented by 2007. The five fields are estimated to contain a combined total of 250 bcf of gas. The Liverpool Bay fields (Douglas, Douglas West, Lennox, Hamilton, Hamilton East and Hamilton North) have estimated initial recoverable gas reserves of 1.2 trillion cubic feet of gas, and more than 160 million barrels of oil. Production began 1996. The Bains field has estimated gas reserves of 50 bcf and only started production in 2002. Bains has no production platform and is remotely operated from south Morecambe. The gas produced from Bains and south Morecambe are mixed and transported onshore. It is unlikely that the Rivers, Liverpool Bay and Bains fields will be available for storage for many years yet. 4.1.2 Oil and gas composition Table 3 summarises the composition of the oil and gas fields in the east Irish Sea. A gas containing high levels of H2S is referred to as a ‘sour gas’ and a gas containing low levels is referred to as a ‘sweet gas’. Both the H2S and CO2 in gas are highly corrosive and therefore specialist chromium steels are required for transportation pipelines and for the casings in the production wells. The gas from the Rivers fields contains high levels of H2S. The Douglas Field, which produced the first offshore oil from the East Irish Sea basin, contains high levels of H2S and other sulphur compounds that are removed during processing (Yaliz & McKim, 2003). North Morecambe contains high levels of CO2 (approx 6%), and due to the corrosive effects a new pipeline had to be installed. The CO2 is removed during processing on the north Morecambe terminal (Cowan and Boycott-Brown, 2003). Therefore, there are fields in the east Irish Sea where the infrastructure is already sufficient to cope with the corrosive effects expected whilst injecting CO2.

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FIELD NAME Millom North Morecambe South Morecambe Dalton Hamlton North Darwen Hamilton East Hamilton Calder Bains Crossans Lennox Asland Douglas Lennox

FIELD TYPE Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Oil Oil

GAS/OIL COMPOSITION Sweet High CO2 & N2 Sweet Sweet Sweet Sour Sweet Sour Sour Sweet Sour Sour Sour High H2S High H2S

Table 3 Composition of the oil and gas in fields in the East Irish Sea Basin

4.2 Storage capacity of saline aquifers in the East Irish sea Table 4 shows the potential CO2 storage capacity of closed structures in the Ormskirk Sandstone that do not contain oil and gas. Closed structures were identified from a map of the top Ormskirk Sandstone Formation derived from seismic data (British Geological Survey, 1994) and are shown in Figure 9. Because water has to be displaced from the pore space in aquifers, and the reservoir is heterogeneous, much of the pore space can be bypassed by migrating CO2 when it is injected into such structures. This results in a less than perfect sweep of CO2 through the pore space and relatively low CO2 saturation of the reservoir rock. Based on reservoir simulation of closed structures in the Bunter sandstone (Obdam et al. 2003), it is expected that the maximum CO2 saturation of the pore space that could be achieved is approximately 40%. Other parameters used in the calculation are given below: Average surface temperature 10°C Geothermal gradient 25°C km-1 Porosity 15%. Pressure gradient 1.1 bar m-1
ID No. Rock volume km3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 17 18 Total 1171184.8 1870397 8144809.7 5797.5 1331495.5 7883750.8 164502.2 2045018.6 3479276.6 8404501.2 Depth Reservoir Reservoir Temp C pressure bar 500 22.5 55 687 27.2 76 750 28.8 83 811 30.3 89 500 22.5 55 542 23.6 60 679 27.0 75 500 22.5 55 500 22.5 55 100 12.5 11 CO2 density kg/m3 163.66 730.96 735.06 738.04 163.66 195.13 730.34 163.66 163.66 21.825 CO2 storage potential Mt 11.5 82.0 359.2 0.3 13.1 92.3 7.2 20.1 34.2 11.0 630.8

Table 4 CO2 storage capacities of the non-hydrocarbon-bearing closed structures within the Ormskirk Sandstone saline aquifer of the East Irish Sea Basin. See Figure 9 for location map.

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The combined total of CO2 that it is estimated can be stored in the closed structures of the saline aquifer is 630 million tonnes (Mt). This is the equivalent of 146 years of emissions from Connah's Quay power plant. Although the reservoir unit demonstrates all of the necessary properties required for geological storage, several of the structures do not lie at depths greater than 800m. The CO2 therefore will not be in its dense supercritical phase where it occupies less space. This does not mean however that CO2 cannot be stored; it just means that less will be stored (Brook et al. 2003). The fact that they do not contain gas (or oil) suggests that either they are not gas-tight or they do not lie on the migration path of any oil and gas generated in the basin. If these structures are likely to leak gas then they are not suitable for CO2 storage. Further work is required to establish which of these reasons accounts for the absence of oil and gas in the nonhydrocarbon-bearing structures.

Figure 9 Map of the closed structures in the Ormskirk Sandstone saline aquifer in the East Irish Sea

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5 Conclusions The East Irish Sea Basin has considerable CO2 storage potential, particularly in its gas fields. On depletion these have a CO2 storage capacity estimated to be in the order of 1046 million tonnes. More than half of this lies in the South Morecambe field, and more than 1040 million tonnes lies within fields with an estimated storage capacity of more than 10 million tonnes. There is considerable further potential in the Ormskirk Sandstone aquifer. Here 630 million tonnes of CO2 might be stored in mapped closed structures. However, further work is required to prove whether or not these structures are gas-tight.

Acknowledgements This paper is published with the permission of the Chief Executive of the British Geological Survey (NERC). The author would like to thank Michelle Bentham and Sam Holloway for their help in compiling this report. References BACHU S AND SHAW J. 2003. Evaluation of the CO2 Sequestration Capacity in Alberta's Oil and Gas Reservoirs at Depletion and the Effect of Underlying Aquifers. Canadian Journal of Petroleum Technology, Volume 42, No. 9, Pages 51-61. BASTIN J C, BOYCOTT-BROWN T, SIMS A AND WOODHOUSE R. 2003. The South Morecambe Gas Field, Blocks 110/2a, 110/3a, 110/7a and 110/8a, East Irish Sea. In : Gluyas J G & Hichens H M (editors) 2003. United Kingdom Oil and Gas Fields, Commemorative Millenium Volume. Geological Society, London, Memoir 20, Pages 107-118. BRITISH GEOLOGICAL SURVEY. 1994. East Irish Sea (Special Sheet Edition). 1:250000. (Edinburgh, Scotland, British Geological Survey). BROOK M S, SHAW K L, VINCENT C J AND HOLLOWAY S. 2003. Storage Potential of the Bunter Sandstone in the UK sector of the southern North Sea and the adjacent onshore area of Eastern England. British Geological Survey Commissioned Report, CR/03/154. COWAN, G AND BOYCOTT-BROWN T. 2003. The North Morecambe Field, Block 110/2a, East Irish Sea. In : Gluyas J G and Hichens H M (eds.) 2003. United Kingdom Oil and Gas Fields, Commemorative Millenium Volume. Geological Society, London, Memoir 20, Pages 97-105. EBBERN J. 1981. The geology of the Morecambe gas field. In: Illing L V and Hobson G D, Petroleum geology of the continental shelf of North-West Europe; Proceedings of the second conference. Pages 485-493. GLUYAS J G AND HICHENS H M (EDITORS). 2003. United Kingdom Oil and Gas Fields, Commemorative Millenium Volume. Geological Society, London, Memoir 20, Pages 87-96. JACKSON D I, MULLHOLLAND P, JONES S M AND G. WARRINGTON. 1987. The geological framework of the East Irish Sea Basin. Petroleum Geology of North West Europe, Pages 191203. JACKSON D I, JACKSON A A, EVANS D, WINGFIELD R T R, BARNES R P AND ARTHUR M J. 1995. United Kingdom offshore regional report: the geology of the Irish Sea. British Geological Survey. London HMSO.

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JACKSON D I, JOHNSON H. 1996. Lithostratigraphic nomenclature of the Triassic, Permian and Carboniferous of the UK offshore East Irish Sea Basin. British Geological Survey. LEVISON A. 1988. The geology of the Morecambe gas field. Geology Today. 4; 3, Pages 95100. 1988. Blackwell. Oxford, United Kingdom MACCHI L, CURTIS C D, LEVISON A, WOODWARD K AND HUGHES C R. 1990. Chemistry, Morphology, and Distribution of Illites from Morecambe Gas Field, Irish Sea, Offshore United Kingdom. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin, Volume 74, No. 3, Pages 296-308. MEADOWS N S AND BEACH A. 1993. Controls on reservoir quality in the Triassic Sherwood Sandstone of the Irish Sea. In: J.R.Parker (ed.), Petroleum geology of Northwest Europe: Proceedings of the 4th Conference. The Geological Society. Volume 2, Pages 823-833. MEADOWS N S, TRUEBLOOD S P, HARDMAN M AND COWAN G (EDITORS). 1997. Petroleum geology of the Irish Sea and adjacent areas. Geological Society Special Publications. 124. OBDAM A, VAN DER MEER L, MAY F, KERVEVAN C, BECH N AND WILDENBORG A. 2003. Effective CO2 Storage Capacity in Aquifers, Gas Fields, Oil Fields and Coal Fields. In: J Gale and J Kaya (eds.), Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, 1-4 October 2002, Kyoto, Japan. STUART I A AND COWAN G. 1991. The South Morecambe Field, Blocks 110/2a, 110/3a, 110/8a, UK Irish Sea. In: Abbots I.L. (ed.) United kingdom Oil and Gas Fields, 25 Years Commemorative Volume. Geological Society, London, Memoir 14, 527-541. STUART I A. 1993. The Geology of the North Morecambe Gas Field, East Irish Sea Basin. In: J.R.Parker (ed.), Petroleum geology of Northwest Europe: Proceedings of the 4th Conference. The Geological Society. Volume 2, Pages 883-895.

WILDENBORG, A., GALE, J., HENDRIKS, C., HOLLOWAY, S., BRANDSMA, R., KREFT, E. & LOKHORST, A. 2004. Cost curves for CO2 storage, European sector. In: Rubin, E.S., Keith, D.W. & Gilboy, C.F. (eds.), Proceedings of 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies. Volume 1: Peer-Reviewed Papers and Plenary Presentations, Elsevier, In Press, 2005.
WOODWARD K AND CURTIS C D. 1987. Predictive modelling of the distribution of the production-constraining illites – Morecambe Gas Field, Irish Sea, Offshore UK. In : Graham & Trotman (eds.) Petroleum Geology of North West Europe, Pages 205-215. YALIZ A AND MCKIM N. 2003. The Douglas Oil Field, Block 110/13b, East Irish Sea. In : Gluyas J G & Hichens H M (eds.) 2003. United Kingdom Oil and Gas Fields, Commemorative Millenium Volume. Geological Society, London, Memoir 20, Pages 63-75. YALIZ A AND CHAPMAN T. 2003. The Lennox Oil and Gas Field, Block 110/15, East Irish Sea. In : Gluyas J G & Hichens H M (eds.) 2003. United Kingdom Oil and Gas Fields, Commemorative Millenium Volume. Geological Society, London, Memoir 20, Pages 87-96. YALIZ A AND TAYLOR P. 2003. The Hamilton and Hamilton North Gas Fields, Block 110/13a, East Irish Sea. In : Gluyas J G and Hichens H M (eds.) 2003. United Kingdom Oil and Gas Fields, Commemorative Millenium Volume. Geological Society, London, Memoir 20, Pages 77-86.

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Perceptions of the effectiveness of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in prompting behavioural change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 92 • Warren R., Hope C, Mastrandrea M, Tol R S J, Adger W. N., Lorenzoni I., (2006) Spotlighting the impacts functions in integrated assessments. Research Report Prepared for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Paper 91 • Warren R., Arnell A, Nicholls R., Levy P E, Price J, (2006) Understanding the regional impacts of climate change: Research Report Prepared for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 90 • Barker T., Qureshi M, Kohler J., (2006) The Costs of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation with Induced Technological Change: A Meta-Analysis of Estimates in the Literature, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 89 • Kuang C, Stansby P, (2006) Sandbanks for coastal protection: implications of sea-level rise. Part 3: wave modelling, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 88 • Kuang C, Stansby P, (2006) Sandbanks for coastal protection: implications of sea-level rise. Part 2: current and morphological modelling, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 87 • Stansby P, Kuang C, Laurence D, Launder B, (2006) Sandbanks for coastal protection: implications of sea-level rise. Part 1:
2000 - 2007

application to East Anglia, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 86 • Bentham M, (2006) An assessment of carbon sequestration potential in the UK – Southern North Sea case study: Tyndall Centre Working Paper 85 • Anderson K., Bows A., Upham P., (2006) Growth scenarios for EU & UK aviation: contradictions with climate policy, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 84 • Williamson M., Lenton T., Shepherd J., Edwards N, (2006) An efficient numerical terrestrial scheme (ENTS) for fast earth system modelling, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 83 • Bows, A., and Anderson, K. (2005) An analysis of a post-Kyoto climate policy model, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 82 • Sorrell, S., (2005) The economics of energy service contracts, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 81 • Wittneben, B., Haxeltine, A., Kjellen, B., Köhler, J., Turnpenny, J., and Warren, R., (2005) A framework for assessing the political economy of post-2012 global climate regime, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 80 • Ingham, I., Ma, J., and Ulph, A. M. (2005) Can adaptation and mitigation be complements?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 79 • Agnolucci,. P (2005) Opportunism and competition in the non-fossil fuel obligation market, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 78 • Barker, T., Pan, H., Köhler, J., Warren., R and Winne, S. (2005) Avoiding dangerous climate change by inducing technological progress: scenarios using a large-scale econometric model, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 77 • Agnolucci,. P (2005) The role of political uncertainty in the Danish renewable energy market, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 76 • Fu, G., Hall, J. W. and Lawry, J. (2005) Beyond probability: new methods for representing uncertainty in projections of future climate, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 75
Tyndall Working Papers

• Ingham, I., Ma, J., and Ulph, A. M. (2005) How do the costs of adaptation affect optimal mitigation when there is uncertainty, irreversibility and learning?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 74 • Walkden, M. (2005) Coastal process simulator scoping study, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 73 • Lowe, T., Brown, K., Suraje Dessai, S., Doria, M., Haynes, K. and Vincent., K (2005) Does tomorrow ever come? Disaster narrative and public perceptions of climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 72 • Boyd, E. Gutierrez, M. and Chang, M. (2005) Adapting small-scale CDM sinks projects to low-income communities, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 71 • Abu-Sharkh, S., Li, R., Markvart, T., Ross, N., Wilson, P., Yao, R., Steemers, K., Kohler, J. and Arnold, R. (2005) Can Migrogrids Make a Major Contribution to UK Energy Supply?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 70 • Tompkins, E. L. and Hurlston, L. A. (2005) Natural hazards and climate change: what knowledge is transferable?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 69 • Bleda, M. and Shackley, S. (2005) The formation of belief in climate change in business organisations: a dynamic simulation model, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 68 • Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine, A. and O’Riordan, T., (2005) Developing regional and local scenarios for climate change mitigation and adaptation: Part 2: Scenario creation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 67 • Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine, A., Lorenzoni, I., O’Riordan, T., and Jones, M., (2005) Mapping actors involved in climate change policy networks in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 66 • Adger, W. N., Brown, K. and Tompkins, E. L. (2004) Why do resource managers make links to stakeholders at other scales?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 65 • Peters, M.D. and Powell, J.C. (2004) Fuel Cells for a Sustainable Future II, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 64 • Few, R., Ahern, M., Matthies, F. and Kovats, S. (2004) Floods, health and climate
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change: a strategic review, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 63 • Barker, T. (2004) Economic theory and the transition to sustainability: a comparison of approaches, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 62 • Brooks, N. (2004) Drought in the African Sahel: long term perspectives and future prospects, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 61 • Few, R., Brown, K. and Tompkins, E.L. (2004) Scaling adaptation: climate change response and coastal management in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 60 • Anderson, D and Winne, S. (2004) Modelling Innovation and Threshold Effects In Climate Change Mitigation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 59 • Bray, D and Shackley, S. (2004) The Social Simulation of The Public Perceptions of Weather Events and their Effect upon the Development of Belief in Anthropogenic Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 58 • Shackley, S., Reiche, A. and Mander, S Public Perceptions of (2004) The Underground Coal Gasification (UCG): A Pilot Study, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 57 • Vincent, K. (2004) Creating an index of social vulnerability to climate change for Africa, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 56 • Mitchell, T.D. Carter, T.R., Jones, .P.D, Hulme, M. and New, M. (2004) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100), Tyndall Centre Working Paper 55 • Turnpenny, J., Carney, S., Haxeltine, A., and O’Riordan, T. (2004) Developing regional and local scenarios for climate change mitigation and adaptation Part 1: A framing of the East of England Tyndall Centre Working Paper 54 • Agnolucci, P. and Ekins, P. (2004) The Announcement Effect And Environmental Taxation Tyndall Centre Working Paper 53 • Agnolucci, P. (2004) Ex Post Evaluations of CO2 –Based Taxes: A Survey Tyndall Centre Working Paper 52
Tyndall Working Papers

• Agnolucci, P., Barker, T. and Ekins, P. (2004) Hysteresis and Energy Demand: the Announcement Effects and the effects of the UK Climate Change Levy Tyndall Centre Working Paper 51 • Powell, J.C., Peters, M.D., Ruddell, A. and Halliday, J. (2004) Fuel Cells for a Sustainable Future? Tyndall Centre Working Paper 50 • Awerbuch, S. (2004) Restructuring our electricity networks to promote decarbonisation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 49 • Pan, H. (2004) The evolution of economic structure under technological development, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 48 • Berkhout, F., Hertin, J. and Gann, D. M., (2004) Learning to adapt: Organisational adaptation to climate change impacts, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 47 • Watson, J., Tetteh, A., Dutton, G., Bristow, A., Kelly, C., Page, M. and Pridmore, A., (2004) UK Hydrogen Futures to 2050, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 46 • Purdy, R and Macrory, R. (2004) Geological carbon sequestration: critical legal issues, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 45 • Shackley, S., McLachlan, C. and Gough, C. (2004) The Public Perceptions of Carbon Capture and Storage, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 44 • Anderson, D. and Winne, S. (2003) Innovation and Threshold Effects in Technology Responses to Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 43 • Kim, J. (2003) Sustainable Development and the CDM: A South African Case Study, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 42 • Watson, J. (2003), UK Electricity Scenarios for 2050, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 41 Klein, R.J.T., Lisa Schipper, E. and Dessai, • S. (2003), Integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate and development policy: three research questions, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 40

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• Tompkins, E. and Adger, W.N. (2003). Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 39 Brooks, N. (2003). Vulnerability, risk • and adaptation: a conceptual framework, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 38 Ingham, A. and Ulph, A. (2003) • Uncertainty, Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost of Carbon, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 37 Kröger, K. Fergusson, M. and Skinner, I. • (2003). Critical Issues in Decarbonising Transport: The Role of Technologies, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 36 Tompkins E. L and Hurlston, L. (2003). • Report to the Cayman Islands’ Government. Adaptation lessons learned from responding to tropical cyclones by the Cayman Islands’ Government, 1988 – 2002, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 35 Dessai, S., Hulme, M (2003). Does • climate policy need probabilities?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 34 Pridmore, A., Bristow, A.L., May, A. D. and • Tight, M.R. (2003). Climate Change, Impacts, Future Scenarios and the Role of Transport, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 33 Xueguang Wu, Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. • (2003). Integrating Renewables and CHP into the UK Electricity System: Investigation of the impact of network faults on the stability of large offshore wind farms, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 32 Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine A. and O’Riordan, • T. (2003). A scoping study of UK user needs for managing climate futures. Part 1 of the pilot-phase interactive integrated assessment process (Aurion Project), Tyndall Centre Working Paper 31 Hulme, M. (2003). Abrupt climate • change: can society cope?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 30 Brown, K. and Corbera, E. (2003). A • Multi-Criteria Assessment Framework for Carbon-Mitigation Projects: Putting “development” in the centre of decisionmaking, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 29

Dessai, S., Adger, W.N., Hulme, M., • Köhler, J.H., Turnpenny, J. and Warren, R. (2003). Defining and experiencing dangerous climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 28 Tompkins, E.L. and Adger, W.N. (2003). • Building resilience to climate change through adaptive management of natural resources, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 27 Brooks, N. and Adger W.N. (2003). • Country level risk measures of climaterelated natural disasters and implications for adaptation to climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 26 Xueguang Wu, Mutale, J., Jenkins, N. and • Strbac, G. (2003). An investigation of Network Splitting for Fault Level Reduction, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 25 Xueguang Wu, Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. • (2002). Impact of Integrating Renewables and CHP into the UK Transmission Network, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 24 Paavola, J. and Adger, W.N. (2002). • Justice and adaptation to climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 23 Watson, W.J., Hertin, J., Randall, T., • Gough, C. (2002). Renewable Energy and Combined Heat and Power Resources in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 22 Watson, W. J. (2002). Renewables and • CHP Deployment in the UK to 2020, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 21 Turnpenny, J. (2002). Reviewing • organisational use of scenarios: Case study - evaluating UK energy policy options, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 20 Pridmore, A. and Bristow, A., (2002). The • role of hydrogen in powering road transport, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 19 Watson, J. (2002). The development of • large technical systems: implications for hydrogen, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 18 Dutton, G., (2002). Hydrogen Energy • Technology, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 17 Adger, W.N., Huq, S., Brown, K., Conway, • D. and Hulme, M. (2002). Adaptation to climate change: Setting the Agenda for Development Policy and Research, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 16
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Tyndall Working Papers

Köhler, J.H., (2002). Long run technical • change in an energy-environment-economy (E3) model for an IA system: A model of Kondratiev waves, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 15 Shackley, S. and Gough, C., (2002). The • Use of Integrated Assessment: An Institutional Analysis Perspective, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 14 Dewick, P., Green K., Miozzo, M., (2002). • Technological Change, Industry Structure and the Environment, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 13 Dessai, S., (2001). The climate regime • from The Hague to Marrakech: Saving or sinking the Kyoto Protocol?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 12 Barker, T. (2001). Representing the • Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Adaptation and Mitigation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 11 Gough, C., Taylor, I. and Shackley, S. • (2001). Burying Carbon under the Sea: An Initial Exploration of Public Opinions, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 10 Barnett, J. and Adger, W. N. (2001). • Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 9 Adger, W. N. (2001). Social Capital and • Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 8

Barnett, J. (2001). Security and Climate • Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 7 Goodess, C.M., Hulme, M. and Osborn, T. • (2001). The identification and evaluation of suitable scenario development methods for the estimation of future probabilities of extreme weather events, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 6 Barnett, J. (2001). The issue of 'Adverse • Effects and the Impacts of Response Measures' in the UNFCCC, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 5 Barker, T. and Ekins, P. (2001). How High • are the Costs of Kyoto for the US Economy?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 4 Berkhout, F, Hertin, J. and Jordan, A. J. • (2001). Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as 'learning machines', Tyndall Centre Working Paper 3 Hulme, M. (2001). Integrated • Assessment Models, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 2 Mitchell, T. and Hulme, M. (2000). A • Country-by-Country Analysis of Past and Future Warming Rates, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 1
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Tyndall Working Papers

2000 - 2007