Coastal process simulator scoping study��

Mike Walkden March 2005

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Working Paper 73

Coastal process simulator scoping study

Dr Mike Walkden
School of Civil Engineering & Geosciences Cassie Building University of Newcastle upon Tyne Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU UK Email: mike.walkden@ncl.ac.uk

Tyndall Centre Working Paper 73 March 2005

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Summary This working paper represents the outcome of a project scoping the potential for development of a series of quantified models driven by time series output from Global Climate Models (GCM) to allow analysis of coastal change. Such a Coastal Process Simulator (CPS) is needed to provide input to Tyndall’s Regional Coastal Simulator and other Tyndall projects. Since the CPS would be driven by GCM output the results would be consistent with other Tyndall outputs and nested within Earth System Simulators. This paper describes a preliminary view of the CPS, its content and structure, which are outlined in Figure 1, and the scientific approaches that might be used to construct it. Issues of model integration and uncertainty quantification are also considered. Such work should not proceed in isolation so potential linkages are described that would strengthen the work, these include: • Potential for external funding, • Uptake of Tyndall Phase 1 results, • Contemporary studies, • Interaction with potential Tyndall Phase 2 projects, and • Involvement with the coastal management processes.

1 Introduction The coast is continuously evolving from the interaction of the sea and the land, which responds to the hydrodynamic climate by reshaping and releasing sediments. Coastal zones have extremely high value in both economic and non-market terms. They attract settlements and certain types of major infrastructure, are used for recreation and provide natural habitats. The coastal zone is clearly a complex integrated system and highly dynamic behaviour emerges from the interactions of its various parts, processes and roles. This dynamism, coupled with its climate dependency, mean that coastal zones are sensitive to climate change in general and sea-level rise in particular. The coastal zone’s high value and sensitivity to change necessitates careful management. Its complex dynamism raises the possibility that managed coastal interventions will have limited effectiveness and/or lead to unforeseen system effects – in the worst case some of the impacts of climate change could be greatly amplified. This is being recognised in coastal management practice, which increasingly integrates diverse data, information, knowledge, experience and models and plans over larger scales than were considered in the past. If the management process is to be successful and lead to sustainable solutions it must be supported by engineers and environmental, physical and social scientists. Given these characteristics, the coast is an excellent realm for Tyndall activity. The purpose of the Tyndall Centre is to research, assess and communicate from a distinct trans-disciplinary perspective the options to mitigate, and the necessities to adapt to, climate change, and to integrate these into the global, national and local contexts of sustainable development. This purpose can be exercised through coastal scientific and engineering research into adaptation of coastal systems to climate change and by harnessing the results to support the development of sustainable coastal management solutions. Such activity would naturally follow the key aims of Tyndall by integrating trans-disciplinary research, engaging with stakeholders at different levels, and by educating the public and government about coastal behaviours. In order to achieve the purposes of Tyndall in the coastal realm it is necessary to focus on a particular region so that specific models can be integrated and stakeholders identified. In addition it is necessary to integrate research output into a coherent tool to educate users and inform policy makers. This tool, the Regional Coastal Simulator, was begun under Tyndall Phase 1 and is an integration of data, information, knowledge, experience and models of

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many types that demonstrates a range of possible coastal behaviours for different climate change scenarios and management approaches. A crucial and major component is an engine that represents geomorphological change and predicts coastal flooding, erosion and the coastal state, i.e. form and composition. Coastal models of economics and social and environmental science can then be driven with this geomorphological and flood probability input. Consequently Tyndall Theme 4 has funded a short study to scope the potential for a regional scale Coastal Process Simulator (CPS). The process of this study is described below. This position paper is a product of this study and its purposes are: 1. to describe how, building on the substantial progress made during Phase 1 of Tyndall, an integrated Coastal Process Simulator (CPS) could be constructed within the East Anglian region and 2. to review its potential role within the Tyndall network of activities.

2 Process The Tyndall Regional Coastal Simulator describes coastal behaviours in East Anglia and deals with spatial areas and time periods that are unusually large in (quantified) geomorphic modelling terms. There are very few projects that have modelled coastal geomorphology over such large and diverse areas and long time-periods in the East Anglian region. A natural starting point in identifying likely potential contributors was, therefore, the coastal geomorphology/hydrodynamic component of Tyndall Phase 1. This initial group met to discuss the East Anglian coast, consider the progress made during the geomorphology related projects in Tyndall Phase 1 and to prepare an initial 'Wish List' of CPS components. This process identified knowledge gaps and, therefore, the need to expand the group of potential contributors. A series of discussions were then held with other members of the research community which expanded and refined the wish list. Once it was considered to be sufficiently comprehensive (see appendix A) it was reviewed in the context of the East Anglian coast to identify critical items and to begin to map the structure of the CPS. The core components can be grouped into those dealing with atmosphere, offshore morphology shore morphology, flooding, and integration. These groups are described below in Section 3. The development work needed to produce the CPS components was also considered to identify those that required fundamental work, application of existing tools or novel integration and application of existing models. General issues of model integration and data and uncertainty management were then considered. Developments made by Tyndall Phase 1 projects were drawn together with other related work in a Position Paper, which proposed a workable structure for a CPS. In addition it identified benefits to the Regional Coastal Simulator and other Tyndall activities. The broader benefits of such work to coastal management were outlined and opportunities for external funding were also identified. The Position Paper was discussed with the leader of Tyndall Theme 4 'Sustaining the Coastal Zone' and representatives of the Defra/EA Broad Scale Modelling Theme and was subsequently revised to form this Final Report.

3 Related work The number of existing studies that that might provide useful input to the CPS is large because the East Anglian region includes many coastal features that have been extensively

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studied. Consequently only Tyndall work and other recent projects dealing with large scale coastal behaviour associated with the East Anglian region have been included here.

3.1 Tyndall projects Tyndall phase 1 projects that could inform the development of the CPS are listed in Table 1. Code T3.12 Potential contribution to a Coastal Process Simulator Towards an Integrative Science: A Systems basis for model integration and Complex Systems Science as a interpretation of output. basis for Decision Making and Policy Exploration A Modular Multi-Purpose Guidance on efficient and effective model coupling. Integrated Assessment System Developing fast and efficient Potentially improves scope for Monte-Carlo analysis. climate models Estimating uncertainty in future Methodologies, including Bayesian approaches, fuzzy sets and methods for merging expert assessments of climate change judgements, to recognise and account for uncertainty during the operation of the integrated models. Estimating future probabilities Guidance for bridging climate timeslices under non-stationary conditions. of extreme weather events The Impacts of Global Climate See section 5 Change on British Overseas Territories Measuring a country's See section 5 vulnerability to climate change New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity How vulnerable is the UK A methodology for the prediction of regional variation in sea-level rise. Insights into the role coastline? of the North Atlantic Oscillation on future seastates, which should inform the prediction of non-stationary sea state statistics. Assessing coastal flood risk at Flood models for the Norfolk Broads and tiered specific sites and regional scales methodology for assessing coastal flood risk. A baseline regional assessment of the risk of coastal flooding under different scenarios of change. An Integrated Regional Coastal See section 5 Simulator Simulating the impact of sea Methodology for accounting for the level rise on East Anglian coasts transformation of waves and currents. Identifying who and what can See section 5 enhance adaptation along UK coastlines 3D visualisations of the future Methods for visualising future coastal states to inform the public and stakeholders. coastline The influence of climate change Regional mesoscale model of shore erosion and on the erosion of beaches and sediment transport. Baseline estimates of the erosion risk on the coast under different cliffs Project

Theme 1 FP IT1.31 T2.13

IT1.16 EFP/04

IT1.11

IT1.15

T2.46

Theme 4 FP IT1.37 T2.42

T2.43 T2.45

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T3.41

T3.42

T3.42

scenarios of climate change. Methodology for integration of models of wave transformation, sediment transport and flood risk. Towards a high resolution Guidance on the construction of a cellular cellular model for coastal model of sandbank evolution. Integration of coastal and estuary morphological modelling. simulation Capturing geomorphological Review of morphological knowledge and definition of likelihood of the potential future change in the coastal simulator states of the East Anglian coast. See section 5 Redesigning the coast

Table 1: Potential contribution of Tyndall Phase 1 projects to a Coastal Processes Simulator. 3.2 Other projects The National Appraisal of Assets at Risk project (Halcrow et al, 2001) quantified coastal flood and erosion risk for 2001 and 2075 in the East Anglian region as part of a larger study of England and Wales. The approach taken was robust but was based on limited data. Estimates of erosion were taken from Shoreline Management Plans whilst coastal flooding was dealt with by predicting a change in return period of specified overtopping rates. This was informed by data on future water levels and wave activity, which was produced from limited set of GCM output. The Futurecoast project has provided descriptions of coastal form and behaviour and estimates of future shoreline change in approximate terms for England and Wales. Because Tyndall activities under projects T1.37, T3.42, T2.45 & T2.46 have been more spatially focussed and quantify risk their results supersede Futurecoast in the North-East Norfolk region. However Futurecoast's behavioural statements will contribute to the conceptual model of the CPS and therefore the structure of the integrated models. The LEACOAST project is studying the effect of shore-parallel breakwaters on coastal morphology at Sea-Palling. These structures influence the longshore flux of sediment and clearly affect the level of flood risk in the broads. Consequently morphological and flood modelling within the CPS should account for the findings of LEACOAST. The Foresight project (OST, 2004) estimated flood and erosion risk for the present day and for the 2080s at a national level, and quantified regional variations. The RASP methodology was employed to estimate flooding, whilst estimates of erosion were based on expert interpretation of Futurecoast output. The output of the CPS will provide a means of validating the accuracy of Foresight’s predictions for the Norfolk region. The report of the Southern North Sea Sediment Transport Study (HR Wallingford et al, 2002) will support the development of the CPS because it provides descriptions of presentday sediment movement, particularly regarding fluxes around offshore sandbanks. However the SNSSTS examined few scenarios and made no long-term predictions. In addition the work was not linked to future shoreline states or quantification of flood and erosion risk and was therefore more limited in scope that the proposed work. CAMELOT (Southgate et al, 2000) considered issues of long-term coastal modelling, provided models for a range of scales, recommended methodologies and identified modelling limitations and future needs. The long-term models it recommended were BEACHPLAN and PISCES. The former is inappropriate for long-term modelling of the Norfolk coast because it

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does not represent platform or cliff erosion. PISCES was applied to model beach morphology between Happisburgh and Winterton, though unsuccessfully. CAMELOT identified limitations to long-term modelling as: lack of data, chaotic sediment motion and uncertainty in future loading conditions. A method was proposed to sensitivity to test wave sequencing to partially deal with loading uncertainty. This should be adopted and developed (see section 3.5). The issue of chaotic behaviour in morphological development introduces an absolute limit to deterministic prediction. However, conceptual geomorphological models constrain the error in long-term predictions by accounting for system feedback and this approach has already been successfully adopted within the numerical models of project T2.45. This approach should be extended through the CPS. There are clear differences between the projects described above and the proposed CPS which will: • form a continuous coupled simulation from climate models to estimates of flood and erosion risk; and • generate data and knowledge which will be used to evaluate potential future management options. The Regional Impact Study (RegIS) examined sectoral interactions under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in East Anglia and the North West (Holman and Loveland, 2001). While less directly relevant to the CPS than the above studies, this study is helpful in scoping coastal change through the 21st Century.

4 Components of the Coastal Process Simulator The proposed components and structure of the CPS are illustrated in Figure 1 and the regions of the various models are listed in Appendix B.

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Figure 1: Proposed Structure of the Coastal Process Simulator

4. 1 Ocean/Atmosphere The Hadley Centre (UK Meteorological Office) is an extremely valuable potential contributor to the CPS because it is an authority on climate change. They develop and operate GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs) focussed on the UK. The HC can offer GCM results run under the IPCC SRES scenarios, which would promote integration of the regional simulator/CPS with other climate change activities. In addition they can offer consistent predictions of wave and surge conditions and can contribute substantially using their existing funding as the Hadley and Tyndall goals are mutually reinforcing. They wish to support this work because it will demonstrate the effects of climate change and will inform their advice to government on emissions stabilization. GCM output includes global temperature and future rates of sea-level rise. The Hadley centre can also provide atmospheric regional climate model output (ARCM), which represents downscaled GCM results from two SRES emissions scenarios. The RCM is run in 'timeslices' (1960 - 1990, & 2070-2100), and ensemble predictions are made for each scenario. Outputs include global temperature, which can be used to predict future rates of sealevel rise, wind velocities which will be used to drive a wave model and atmospheric sea-level pressure, which, coupled with the windspeeds, will be used to drive a (POL) ocean model to provide surge and currents. The timeslices will require bridging and this issue is being considered as part of UKCIP, however it will require some resource from the CPS and should

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be linked with the hindcasting necessary for the shore evolution modelling. In addition this work should explore the potential for synthesising new climate time-series from the statistics of the RCM output. The CPS will benefit from various previous and ongoing HC projects (e.g. for UKCIP). This means that integration, and particularly the timetable of data transfer must be carefully managed. It is possible that the timeframes of some of the HC projects may be extended or delayed, consequently it is necessary to consider different options of HC support. The options are: 1. Receive (UKCIP Next) HadCRM0 wind data, and wave data from the HC. The data from the first timeslice pair is due in summer of 2005 (each run takes around 4 months). Also receive consistent surge data and estimates of river flow following the coupling of ARCM and ocean models. 2. As (1) but without the ocean model output (surge) or river flow estimates. 3. Use archived wind from downscaled UKCIP02 scenarios, which were generated with an outdated version of the climate model. This is in itself not ideal, and would carry the problem that subsequent planned work on surge would not be directly comparable. The HC will however be using this data to predict wave conditions as part of the UKCIP programme.. Three A2 and two B2 UKCIP02 scenarios have been downscaled, and one of each has been used to predict surge using POL’s 35km CSX barotropic model. It is likely that the CPS would need, and would have to fund, surge and wave modelling for additional scenarios. Each new surge realisation would take 3-4 months, most of this time would be needed for data extraction. It is likely that the option 3 will be the most suitable for the CPS, since it is viable and carries no risk of delay. The GCM will output global mean sea level rise. Regional variations about this mean can be accounted for either by assuming a particular spatial pattern, or else by adopting techniques developed during project IT1.15. Important, non-critical items The HC wishes to conduct an uncertainty analysis of marine climate parameters, to compliment similar analysis of the atmospheric climate parameters. Funding is not yet available. Since only two SRES scenarios will be downscaled, the HC will explore the potential for bridging climate conditions between them to synthesise additional scenarios. Since the ARCM runs on a PC, the Tyndall Centre might purchase one to increase the number of scenarios that could be downscaled.

4.2 Offshore morphology Shallow offshore sand features play a crucial role in protecting the East Anglian coast from wave attack, and have a large influence on tidal currents. However, the dynamics of these features are not well understood so their future behaviour, in particular their response to accelerated sea-level rise and changed wave climate, are poorly understood with relatively limited observations and understanding across the relevant scales. Considerable increase in wave energy at the coast would occur if they failed to keep pace with rising sea-levels. Given the uncertainties surrounding this problem, and its importance in controlling the physical state of the coast, it should be tackled at several levels. At the highest level a sediment transport model should be coupled to the hydrodynamic model described above. Full integration of such models is not normally practical and the appropriateness of upscaling resulting output to predict long-term morphodynamics has been questioned (de Vriend, 1991). These problems should be addressed by developing a model of sandbank dynamics in which hydrodynamics,

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bathymetry and sediment transport are fully integrated and described in terms that are adequate to capture the fundamental dynamics of sandbank emergence within reasonably short runtimes i.e. process representation is likely to be abstract. The development of such a model requires a strong conceptual understanding of the morphodynamic/hydrodynamic interactions. Such understanding necessitates a third, lower-level approach in which all available descriptions of the coastal processes and analysis of morphological data in the region are drawn together in a definitive statement of geomorphological behaviour. This statement will rely heavily on good access to high quality data and on authoritative interpretation. High-level analysis - long-term inshore wave climate and sediment transport prediction. The Hadley Centre will provide offshore wind and wave conditions. Standard formulae can be used to synthesise alternative wave predictions for comparison and validation. The propagation and transformation of these offshore waves must then be modelled in order to provide input to the shore erosion and flooding models. A wave propagation run for a typical coastal domain requires about 30mins on a modern PC and a long-term prediction contains about a million runs, each typically representing a one hour time interval; this is clearly prohibitive computationally. However combinations of significant wave height, period and direction may be run to cover the parameter ranges; about 600 combinations should suffice. The inshore wave height, period and direction at a site may thus be reconstructed from curve fits and interpolation to the data generated. This is most efficient computationally and longterm inshore wave data may be produced from input wind data in seconds on a PC. This data may then be input to the coastal morphology and flooding models. This process assumes that wave climate is independent of tidal currents and wind forcing within the coastal domain and some tests indicate that this is the case, although the sensitivity for any given region will be checked. The code TOMAWAC will be used for wave propagation since its finite-element mesh is more flexible than the finite-volume mesh of SWAN, and it models the same physical characteristics. As the waves propagate they mobilise sediments and so change sand features. This new method for long-term inshore wave climate prediction could be extended to the prediction of offshore sandbank evolution. The method would inevitably be based on several simplifying hypotheses rather than a direct solution of the basic physical processes. An investigation of one basic aspect, sediment dynamics in currents, is being undertaken in an EPSRC funded project based at UMIST. A central hypothesis is that waves and tidal currents do not interact significantly. That waves are quite insensitive to currents has been demonstrated in Tyndall Phase 1 (Kuang and Stansby 2004) through simulations of laboratory experiments (waveinduced currents having little effect) and of conditions off the East Anglia coast (tidal currents having little effect). For the coastal region it was also shown that wave climate is insensitive to wind forcing in the computational domain (unless extreme – around 20 m/s) and to directional spread (whether broad or narrow), further implying that diffraction is insignificant. That currents are insensitive to waves will require further justification, although it has already been shown that measured surface elevations are well predicted without accounting for wave effects (Kuang and Stansby 2004). Several empirical formulae for predicting sediment flux due to waves and currents could be assessed in the project through their prediction of morphodynamic change. Any such scheme for long-term evolution containing the prominent physical processes requires validated and/or calibration against historic charts. The Norfolk coast is a good location for this because of the existence of charts from before 1900. Mid-level analysis - Systems-based model of sandbank dynamics A quantified systems-based hybrid model of sandbank evolution could be developed. This would be run from hydrodynamic and sediment boundary conditions provided by the high

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level wave/current models and the shore morphology models respectively. It is suggested that model development be based on Systems principles in that efforts be made to: • Achieve long-term accuracy rather than short-term precision; • Focus on interaction between the systems parts, rather than the parts themselves; • Represent the whole sandbank system, allowing subjective information where necessary; and • Allow system properties, including internal boundaries, to emerge from model feedback. The structure of the model rules could be drawn from a low-level geomorphic analysis (which would also be systems-based). The rules would then be quantified abstractions of both highlevel descriptions of hydrodynamics and sediment transport and expert knowledge (e.g. heuristic rules). The use of cellular automata approaches to the solution of the model rules should be explored, and it is expected that work on the fluvial model CEASAR (Coulthard, et al, 2002) and the estuarine model CEMCOS (Tyndall project T3.41) will provide guidance for this. Such a cellular approach would facilitate future integration with CEMCOS. Model development should be in iterative steps towards greater refinement to reduce the potential for unparsimonious representation. Each step being informed by comparison between sandbank emergent form and observations of sandbank surfaces and dynamic behaviour (as described, for example, by Reeve et al, 2001). It is not expected that such a model would be precise enough to directly provide boundary conditions for wave modelling. Its purpose would be to capture the basic dynamics of sandbank emergence so that dependency on climate and rate of sea-level rise could be quantified. The knowledge generated would be used to inform the process of updating the sea-bed bathymetry in the high-level wave model. Low-level analysis Broad conceptual modelling of bank evolution is needed to support the numerical work. Existing knowledge and data needs to be drawn together across a range of scales from (1) the event and detailed process scale (based on process models and field campaigns), (2) the decadal to century scale (based primarily on observations derived from historic charts), and (3) the millennia scale (based primarily on geological interpretations from Holocene deposits and erosion surfaces). This should be used to develop a classification of sand bank behaviours and a conceptual map of system interactions across all these scales. Of particular interest are sediment exchanges, especially any linkages of the offshore features to sediment supply from the neighbouring coast. This analysis will allow quantification of sediment budgets. This low-level analysis must be based, in part, on expert judgement, but will also be informed by the numerical modelling work, particularly the mid-level analysis, with which hypotheses can be tested. The quantity and quantity of data available will be a major constraint on this level of analysis. Offshore data A large amount of data exists for bathymetry and, to a lesser extent, sediment distributions of different vintages in the region occupied by significant inshore sandbanks between Winterton and Lowestoft, extending to beyond –13mCD. This was collected by the Admiralty, but is currently held by the UK Hydrographic Office (UKHO) or BGS. Release of the data a high resolution will require negotiation between UKHO, BGS and the Ministry of Defence. However, it is not envisaged at this stage that this will be a substantial barrier to progress. These data will be required to provide both input variables and calibration data for the modelling of inshore sandbanks of the Norfolk and north Suffolk coasts. They will uniquely permit quantitative analysis of changes of sandbanks during different periods. Almost all of the historical soundings were recorded on paper ‘field sheets’ based on the soundings surveys carried out in the last century. These paper records have not been digitised, have been

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measured to a variety of datums and in fathoms or metres, depending on time of survey. Significant effort would thus be required to make the data within them suitable for quantitative modelling. The data could be used to develop the following three models, which in-turn will underpin the quantitative analysis of change: • Bathymetric model, based on soundings; • Sediment model, based on interpretation of likely historic distributions, based on present day settings. This model should give an assessment of likely roughness and bedform texture, grain size, sorting, compositional models and patterns in the past. • Data Quality models (required because of the significant errors or uncertainties inherent in use of historic data, based on the security of navigation at the time of survey- for instance older surveys have often depended on sightings, or mainchainDECCA.)

4.3 Shore morphology The coast of East Anglia is composed of many features. The CPS should be focussed on the most important, representing non-essential coastal types when this can be achieved with minimum expense and greatest benefit, and making best use of the output of other projects. The review process identified modules representing shore erosion and coastal flooding as being critical components of the CPS, spits, dunes and estuaries as being important, whilst tidal inlets and marshes were identified as being desirable. The critical and important components are considered in this section. Although coastal erosion risk and flood risk are clearly linked since, in some areas, excessive erosion would lead to flooding. They are considered here separately because they would be described in separate components of the CPS; in practice such modules would be closely linked. Erosion risk coasts The key to representing mesoscale behaviour of soft cliffed costal areas is to capture the interaction between waves, water-level variation, beach, shore platform and cliff. If this interaction is represented appropriately well the profile shape emerges and its response to climate change and sea-level rise can be predicted. The model developed in project T2.45 achieves this in approximate terms, and was validated against long-term historic planshape measurements. It was recognised, however, that representation of the cross-shore profile was not as good as had been achieved with other applications of the same modelling approach. This reduces confidence in the model's predictions of response to sea-level rise and structure failure and distorts predictions of sediment release, which currently require compensation. In addition developments are planned within other projects which could improve the performance of this model and should be incorporated. Shore profile representation should be improved by capturing the interaction between nearshore sand features, tidal currents and nearshore platform. Tidal currents are strong in this area and appear to be responsible for some platform erosion but this process is not currently modelled. The sandbank model discussed above should be coupled to the cliff model so that the variations in erosion and protection caused by migration of sand and tidal currents can be captured. Improvements in profile shape should also be made at the shoreline. Cross-shore each motion is currently represented in highly simplistic terms using results from a small number of COSMOS runs. The representation of the insitu material should also be improved. This can only be achieved through field and/or specialist physical model tests, and may be a suitable candidate for external funding. Flood risk coasts The model developed in project T2.46 represents the main processes influencing flood risk, namely beach development, structure stability, including beach-structure interaction, and

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wave and water level conditions. It includes overtopping and overflow, but not inundation, which should be added to the CPS. Considerable uncertainty in the flood risk is associated with the foundation depth of flood defence structures and consequently their likelihood of failure. This problem is closely linked to cross-shore beach behaviour, and, like the cliff modelling work, would benefit from a COSMOS study. Some improvements are also needed in the representation of beach behaviour around the Sea Palling reefs. Results from LEACOAST should provide an opportunity to do this. Coastal and fluvial flooding are not currently linked, but an opportunity exists to achieve this through river flow algorithms currently being developed by the CEH for the Hadley Centre's new RCM, or via the catchment algorithms used in the RegIS-2 project which covers Norfolk and Suffolk. Other coasts Estuaries are important coastal features and are receiving considerable research attention, particularly from the Estuaries Research Programme and project T3.41. Efforts should be made to establish links between the CPS and the output of these projects. Understanding sediment exchange between the open coast and estuaries is a high priority. Though spits are considered to be important coastal forms, there is considerable epistemic uncertainty about how to model them. Developments in project T2.45 indicated causes of the emergence of Blakeny spit, and may lead to a useful component of the CPS. Coastal dunes are strongly dependent on beach behaviour, which will be accounted for in the CPS, and are of secondary importance to flood risk in East Anglia. Dunes are the subject of a research grant application by the Universities of Nottingham and Plymouth, so efforts should be made to make use of the output of this study.

4.5 Integration Given the large number of models within the CPS and their diversity, the range of scales that they represent and their different degrees of development, it is not possible to pre-define their interconnection. At the same time it is essential to the success of the project that the methods used to assemble and operate the CPS are efficient and effective. Consequently time must be allowed for this process. Given the likelihood of dispersed centres of modelling activity the internet and a dedicated web-site should be used to: Store and transfer data-sets; Define and store required meta-data; Record model descriptions and versions; and Support uncertainty management.

4.6 Uncertainty The coastal modelling work undertaken in Phase 1 of Tyndall has on the whole been deterministic. In other words, precise constants or time series have been input into the various wave, morphological and flooding models in order to generate exact estimates of output variables, such as shoreline location. A simple statistical model has been used to generate probabilistic predictions of cliff top location. This is in contrast with the architecture of the Tyndall Coastal Simulator, which is based on likelihood matrices and generates (subjective) probabilistic outputs. More thorough uncertainty analysis of the coastal modelling has been recognised as being of utmost importance. Resources permitting, there may be some initial

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exploratory uncertainty analysis in the coming weeks. However, comprehensive uncertainty analysis has been beyond the remit of Phase 1. This situation needs to be corrected in Phase 2 in order to track the cascade of uncertainties from climate projections to coastal impacts and provide coastal managers with an indication of uncertainty in predictions of climate change impacts on the coast. The uncertainty analysis in Phase 2 should include the following aspects: • Uncertainty propagation: Uncertainties in they key inputs (for example climate inputs) to the coastal modelling should be estimated, for example using evidence from climate model ensembles and expert judgement, and propagated through the coupled set of models to provide uncertainty estimates for the model outputs. The extent to which this will be feasible will depend on the computational expense of the coupled system of models. It may be necessary to make use of statistical emulators or other efficient methods for uncertainty propagation. The uncertainty range in emissions will be spanned by the use of upper and lower scenarios. • Systematic calibration: Aspects of the coastal modelling (for example beach modelling) require calibration. Systematic parameter analysis should be conducted to establish the contribution to uncertainty of these calibrated parameters. • Statistical sensitivity analysis: The results of the uncertainty propagation may be used or modified to identify the contribution to the total output uncertainty that inputs or sets of inputs make. This will help to identify targets for more detailed further research. • Time series analysis and simulation: Whilst the climate inputs to the modelling activity will ideally be based on dynamical downscaling (for example driving the wave transformation model directly with wave outputs from the RCM) it may be necessary to generate longer time series or variables on a finer spatial grid. This will require methods for generation of synthetic time series, perhaps also including spatial dependency. Specifically, this will be necessary if the RCM wave data is available only for 1960-1990 and 2070-2100, in which case a non-stationary time series model that faithfully reproduces the characteristics of the measured or simulated time series, will be required. These time series methods are well established, for example in hydrology, and will be adapted to deal with wind, wave and surge data.

5 Uptake and exploitation The work outlined in this paper would inform agenda-setting activities at both national and international levels and would contribute significantly towards recognised coastal management needs. At the highest level results would inform the IPCC debate about the potential impacts of climate change on the coast under different emissions scenarios. Our hypothesis is that climate impacts on the coast are a result of complex interaction of ocean/atmosphere processes and coastal morphology and are not a simple function of sea level rise. If demonstrated in Phase 2 of Tyndall this will be a finding of international importance. The flooding and coastal erosion risks of climate change are of great significance to the UK public (OST 2004). There are many national and regional organisations that contribute to the management of the associated problems (e.g. Defra, EA, English Nature and regional authorities) and many organisations that represent more localised views (e.g. Norfolk Coastal Partnership and the Coastal Concerted Action Group). At the national scale the central issues are associated with uncertainty about future coastal behaviours, at the local scale more emotive short-term issues dominate. Effective resolution at all levels requires relevant, impartial and well presented science, of the type outlined in this paper.

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The CPS would be a vital tool in enabling adaptation and management of climate change at the coast. It should be used to explore the implications and sustainability of a range of potential management scenarios. These could include scenarios defined by stakeholders, for example exploring the effects of dredging on the erosion, which is of particular concern to some Norfolk residents. The CPS project should communicate with stakeholders through other Tyndall research, which specifically deals with social impacts and adaptation to climate change at the coast. Work of this type proposed was urgently recommended by the Foresight project, which raised the profile of coastal climate impacts within the government. This project can help maintain that profile and further inform the government about levels of coastal risk. Defra already recognises the need for sustainable, inter-disciplinary and broad scale coastal management as evidenced by the Shoreline Management Plan processes. There is a great need for regional-scale tools to support SMPs. The utility of Tyndall geomorphic work has already been proven by its contribution to the North Norfolk SMP2. The Defra/EA Broad Scale Modelling TAG is currently producing a Vision for Broad Scale coastal modelling (Townend, 2004), which reviews coastal management needs and recommends a number of projects all of which would benefit from the activities described in this report. The projects are: • Geomorphological behavioural models; • Characterise large-scale coastal exchanges; • Intervention models (to represent influence/impact of management actions and engineering works); • National assessment of impact of climate change; • Risk based tools for assessing defence options; and • Integration of geomorphological, ecological and socio-economic developments. The proposed work is therefore extremely well aligned with national needs in coastal flood and erosion research.

5.1 Application to other regions The approaches described in this paper could be used to construct regional scale models of other locations. The parts of the CPS utilised in such work would depend upon the location. For example, erosion is a significant issue at Holderness and Christchurch Bay, but not coastal flooding. Lincolnshire has an eroding coast, but is also at risk of flooding and has significant dune fields. Lincolnshire would be particularly attractive as a study site because of its exchange of sediment with the North Norfolk coast. External funding might be sought to support such a study, perhaps from the Defra/EA Broad Scale Modelling Theme.

6 Integration with the Regional Coastal Simulator The CPS will interface with the Regional Coastal Simulator through a GIS system. Data transfer will include yearly predictions of erosion and flood risk, foreshore level and beach volume for approximately 400 realisations. The CPS should provide data and methods for other projects within Tyndall. For example: • the CPS models and methodologies for the estimation of mesoscale flood and erosion risk will enable more complete assessment of climate impacts on British overseas territories (Project EFP-04).

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• • •

understanding how the coast is likely to respond to climate change informs the process of identifying who and what can enhance adaptation, (Project T2.42), effective governance of the coast relies on appropriate predictions of future coastal state and erosion and flood risk, (Project T3.42), the output of the CPS could be upscaled, perhaps through the Defra/EA 'Risk Assessment of Coastal Erosion' project, to indicate the UK vulnerability to coastal erosion (Project IT1.11).

7 Project linkages Close parallels exist between the CPS activities outlined in this paper and the coastal vision of the Broad Scale Modelling TAG (Townend, 2004.) this implies opportunities to: • apply knowledge and tools developed within Tyndall to model other areas of the UK coast with BSM TAG support; and • develop symbiotic links with the BSM TAG to progress shared aims, e.g. make use of the BSM Coastal Vision as a supporting document for research council grant applications. The CPS project should therefore seek to involve a member of the BSM TAG with a strong background in broad scale coastal geomorphological modelling.

7.1 Related projects The Hadley Centre are offering data from various projects on global and regional climate, uncertainty and wave predictions including UKCIP. In addition, results from a baroclinic ocean model, which is being developed by POL to be coupled to the Hadley Centre's ARCM, may become available in time to be taken up during Tyndall Phase 2. In addition to providing improved current predictions this model will incorporate consistent river flow estimates. The benefit of these potential contributions would be great since they would solve practical boundary condition issues and would ensure consistency of the CPS and Regional Simulator output with other IPCC SRES related work. The strength of the SCAPE modelling tool will be enhanced with funds from the Defra/EA Coastal Processes theme. Models of two new sites will be constructed during the project 'Understanding and Predicting Beach Morphological Change Associated with the Erosion of Cohesive Shore Platforms'. ABPmer are developing Systems-based estuary simulators with funding under the Estuaries research Programme (ERP). Their work will be finalised as Tyndall Phase 2 begins. The estuary simulators should provide valuable insights into Systems-based modelling and may also be suitable for interaction with the CPS. HR Wallingford is leading a related estuaries project titled “Interpretation and formalisation of geomorphological concepts and approaches”. This should provide useful support to the geomorphological aspects of the CPS development and is due to be completed in February 05. Its output, and that of the other ERP projects should be reviewed at the beginning of the CPS project. The BLINKS project (Impacts of near-shore sandbank mobility on beaches), which is to be conducted by Professor Chris Vincent with NERC funding, should provide valuable information on the linkages and feedback between offshore sandbanks and beaches. Several BGS projects are ongoing that could interact with the CPS work on sediment transport. These are:

15

• •

The 'Thames Estuary Project' which is looking at the long-term evolution of the estuary in response to changes in sea level, sediment supply, and engineering interventions; The 'Open-coast' project, which is assessing coastal change of open coasts, particularly of cliffed-coasts and those with rock platforms; The 'Cliffed coast' project, which is monitoring Happisburgh, Overstrand and Trimingham using Laser-scanning techniques, producing models of cliff failure and sediment supply to the nearshore zone; An ongoing project using geophysical techniques to measure beach thickness.

The University of Southampton are involved in • The defra-funded RegIS-2 regional assessment tool of East Anglia, which describes interactions between different sectors in the region under a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios which are consistent with the SRES and UKCIP scenario frameworks. This tool will include changes in fluvial flows with climate change, complimenting HC research, and also has useful elements for considering protection responses. • The EU Inter-Reg BRANCH project where they, together will examine coastal ecosystem response to climate change in North West Europe, including possible case studies in East Anglia. The Broad Scale Modelling Theme will shortly be procuring project W5C(03)01, “MDSF2/RASP for catchment estuary and coastal planning”. The CPS project should seek to interact with this work to ensure compatibility between the MDSF and CPS.

8 Opportunities for external funding The Defra/EA Risk Evaluation and Understanding of Uncertainty Theme will fund a project titled 'Risk Assessment of Coastal Erosion', which will develop a RASP type methodology to predict risk of coastal erosion. The proposed CPS represents a significant step towards this aim, and so involvement/interaction with this new project has been sought. An application has been submitted to the EPSRC to fund the high-level hydrodynamic and wave transformation work described in section 3.2. This work would also be supported by existing EPSRC funded research into sediment dynamics in currents based at UMIST. Funds will also be sought from EPSRC to fund the development of a shore evolution model of Happisburgh, nested within the regional model. If funded this work would provide valuable information on model scaling and the coastal response to 'managed' retreat. An application will be made for funds to support the offshore cellular modelling work described in section 3.2 through a NERC consortium bid being prepared by the University of Liverpool. The Liverpool bid also represents an opportunity to extend the CPS area to include estuaries. The Universities of Plymouth and Nottingham are proposing to study dune evolution. This work may provide modelling techniques appropriate for the dunes fronting some of the East Anglian flood risk areas.

9 Conclusions Due to the success of projects funded under Tyndall Phase 1 and their integration, a regional scale Coastal Process Simulator is now feasible. This would act as a driver for the Regional

16

Coastal Simulator, prediction flood and erosion risk and shore state under climate change conditions. The CPS would be an integrated network of diverse models, ultimately resolving regional flood and erosion from global climate model input. In this respect it would be a unique Earth Systems Simulator.

Acknowledgements The author would like to acknowledge the support of the Tyndall Centre, who funded this study, and the numerous people who advised on the content of this paper, including Peter Allen, Iain Brown, Gemma Costin, Richard Dawson, John Dearing, Mark Dickson, Roger Flather, Jim Hall, Susan Hanson, Jason Lowe, Larissa Naylor, Robert Nicholls, John Rees, Peter Stansby, Mikis Tsimplis, Andrew Watkinson & David Woolf.

References Coulthard, T. J. Macklin, M. G. & Kirkby, M. J. (2002). Simulating upland river catchment and alluvial fan evolution. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. 27, 269-288. Halcrow Group Ltd, HR Wallingford & John Chatterton Associates, July 2001. “National Appraisal of Assets at Risk from Flooding and Coastal Erosion, including the potential impact of climate change”. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Flood Management Division. Holman, I.P. & Loveland, P.J. (eds.) (2001). Regional Climate Change Impacts in East Anglia and the North West (the RegIS project). Final report of MAFF Project No. CC0337. HR Wallingford, August 2002. Southern North Sea Sediment Transport Study – Phase 2. Sediment Transport Report. Prepared for Great Yarmouth Borough Council by HR Wallingford in association with CEFAS/UEA, Posford Haskoning and Dr B D’Olier. Report EX4526, HR Wallingford. Ian Townend, ABPmer, 2004. Coastal Vision for Broad Scale Modelling. Defra/EA Flood and Coastal Defence R&D Programme Kuang,C-P. and Stansby,P.K. (2004) Efficient modelling for directional random wave propagation inshore, submitted to Proc. ICE J. Maritime Engineering. Office of Science and Technology, 2004. Foresight, Future Flooding Executive Summary. Reeve,D.E., Li,B. and Fleming,C.A. (2001). Long-term morphological variations in a sandbank system, Proc. ICE J. Water and Maritime Engineering. 148(1), 15-23. Southgate, H, Millard, K.T., & Soulsby, R.L. CAMELOT (Coastal Area Modelling for Engineering in the Long Term). Report submitted to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, 2000. De Vriend, H.J. (1991) Mathematical modelling and large-scale coastal behaviour, J. Hydraulic research, 29(6), 727-754.

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Appendix A – ‘Wish List’ Modelling work is therefore required at many scales and in many domains. The scales of interest range from centuries to hours and from the globe to 10s of metres. In this description the models will be divided in to those focussed on the climate, morphodynamics/hydrodynamics, data models, flooding and structures. A further category of meta-level models is also included. It is recognised that such boundaries between model types are, in some senses, artificial since there are important interactions across them. Following discussions with potential project partners each item has been categorised as critical (C), important (I) or desirable (D). This categorisation could only be made by considering a specific location, i.e. the Norfolk coast. Often where an items has been categorised as important, it is because it represents a boundary condition for the coast. A - Climate 1. (C) Predictions of rates of future sea-level rise; 2. (C) GCM - Coupled atmosphere/ocean model, of temperature, velocity, pressure & surge; 3. (C) RCM - Regional climate model; 4. (I) CRCM - Coupled RCM, using the new POL Baroclinic model (Higher grid, coupled river routing, u,v, not ubar, vbar). New marine scenarios will be prepared over the next 2/3 years. May be the source for the wave predictions; 5. (C) Forecast waves, 2005>2100. These might be driven by the new CRCM. May only be predicted in timeslices; 6. (C) Bridge timeslices, may not be necessary, technique will be developed during UKCIPnext during 05/06/07; 7. (I) Bridge scenarios; 8. (I) Secondary wave forecasting. 9. (C) Hindcast waves, 1500>2005, using UKCIP technique? 10. (I) Uncertainty analysis of marine properties. The climate properties will be examined and pdfs produced. The marine work is not yet funded. This might be done 06/07. B - Morphodynamics and hydrodynamics 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. (C) Offshore wave dynamics covering a large area over a long period; (C) Tidal currents covering a large area over a long period; (C) Surge dynamics covering a large area over a long period; (I) Offshore sandbank evolution - Interactions between sandbank topography, sediment transport, tides, waves and surges, and other sandbanks; (C) Nearshore sandbank evolution - Interactions between sandbank topography, sediment transport, tides, waves and surges, other sandbanks and the shore; (C) Shore evolution - Interactions between dunes, cliffs, sediment sizes, beaches, platform, sandbars, nearshore sandbanks, tides, waves, surges and structures. Sediment transport along-shore, across-shore and off-shore; (D) Fluvial sedimentation in the broads; (D) Marsh evolution, vertical accretion and edge erosion; (D) Tidal inlets - Interactions between tidal & surge currents, river currents, sediment transport in rivers, alongshore, across-shore and offshore; (I) Estuary evolution and interaction with wave and tidal currents and sediment transport alongshore and offshore;

7. 8. 9. 10.

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11. (C) Ness evolution - Interactions between nesses, shore platform, waves, currents, longshore and offshore transport; 12. (I) Spit evolution - Interaction between spit morphology, waves tides and longshore transport. Shingle barrier breaching; 13. (I) Dunes - Interactions between dunes, waves, tides, beaches and structures; 14. (C) Beach & platform - Interactions between structures, cliffs, beaches and platform. Behaviour during storms and average conditions; and 15. (D) Beach & platform - Wave reflection and scour. depth of closure model. C - Flooding 1. (I) Rainfall, riverflow; 2. (C) Overtopping, inundation, wave propagation over floodplains and through complex topography, e.g. settlements; 3. (D) Drainage, including rivers, fen drainage networks, sewer system. / Secondary 4. (D) Flood level as a result of river flow, overflow, wave overtopping, rain, drainage and topography; and 5. (D) River meandering and sedimentation. D - Structures Including revetments, pallisades, seawalls, groynes and breakwaters. 1. (C) Impact on morphology, interaction between structures and waves, currents, beach, and foreshore (undermining). influence on sediment transport longshore, cross-shore and offshore; 2. (I) Structure integrity; 3. (C) overtopping, overflow and transmission; and 4. (I) Wave energy extraction structures. E - Other data 1. (C) Digital elevation model over time (land (Lidar), shore and offshore); 2. (I) Floodplain content, structure form, especially crest height and foundation level; and 3. (I) Socio-economic data. F - Meta-level & interface 1. 2. 3. 4. (C) Interface with Regional Coastal Simulator (C) Uncertainty quantification; (C) Integration management; and (C) GIS representation of results.

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Appendix B – Potential Model Regions Model GCM RCM Wave, current and sediment transport Conceptual geomorphic model Near/Offshore sandbank Cliffed shore Flood-risk shore Estuaries Tidal inlets Spit Ness Alongshore extent Global UK coast Blakeny Spit to Benacre Ness Potentially Scottish borders to Clacton or Thames Cromer to Benacre Ness Blakeney Spit to Cart Gap Sea Palling to Winterton Stour and Orwell, the Wash Gt. Yarmouth, Lowestoft Blakeney Winterton, Benacre, Southwold Offshore extent Global UK coast 100 miles Depends upon the geomorphic system 30 miles

N.B. the models shown in bold were identified as critical to the CPS

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Appendix C – Minimum Costing for the Coastal Process Simulator
Project Atmospheric/Ocea n Instit ution HC HC HC Time-series analysis Uncertainty analysis Hydrodynamics/Se diment transport Sandbank morphology Geomorphic description Geomorphic data analysis U HC N M N S BGS BGS BGS Coastal Morphology N N N N U Coastal flood assessment Integration of CPS Other costs N N N Task Extract all data for 1st ensemble member Run and process additional surge simulations (per scenario) Running additional wave ensembles (per scenario: depends on AO2) Timeslice bridging & Hindcasting Timeslice bridging & Hindcasting Uncertainty analysis Hydrodynamics/Sediment transport Cellular model of sandbank emergence Geomorphic description Bathymetric modelling Sediment modelling Data quality modelling Representation of tidal currents Improvement of cross-shore representation Improvement of structure representation Interaction with offshore sediment transport COSMOS modelling Representation of river flow Integration with new morphology modelling Internal integration & linking with RCS PCs UK Travel Int. Conf. travel Data purchasing 10 % Buffer against risk of cost underestimation 6 6 6 6 3 3 20 64000 64000 64000 64000 5000 50000 50000 64000 5812.5 11625 5812.5 5000 70792 No. months 1 2 1.5 12 1 12 36 18 6 Yearly rate 87282 87282 87282 50000 87282 50000 50000 50000 50000 8333 8333 8333 Ttotal cost Total 7273.5 14547 10910.25 50000 7273.5 50000 150000 75000 25000 8333 8333 8333 32000 32000 32000 32000 5000 12500 12500 106666.7 5812.5 11625 5812.5 5000 70792 Assuming RA rate Assuming RA rate Assuming 2 days per week over 4 years Assuming 1k per year of RA Assuming 0.5k per year of RA effort Includes travel + subsistence Includes travel + subsistence Includes travel + subsistence Assuming MW rate Assuming RA rate Under review for EPSRC/NERC funding An initial 1.5 years, to explore the approach. If successful the intention would be to request funds to continue the work. Assuming 37.5 h week Assuming 37.5 h week Assuming 37.5 h week Notes

Total

7779(k)

Table C.1: Estimated minimum project costs

0

Abbreviation HC N M S BGS U

Institution Hadley Centre University of Newcastle Manchester University University of Southampton British Geological Survey Unspecified

Costs per institution 40004 384667 150000 25000 25000 55000

Table C.2: Estimated minimum costs per institution

0

The trans-disciplinary Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research undertakes integrated research into the long-term consequences of climate change for society and into the development of sustainable responses that governments, business-leaders and decision-makers can evaluate and implement. Achieving these objectives brings together UK climate scientists, social scientists, engineers and economists in a unique collaborative research effort. Research at the Tyndall Centre is organised into four research themes that collectively contribute to all aspects of the climate change issue: Integrating Frameworks; Decarbonising Modern Societies; Adapting to Climate Change; and Sustaining the Coastal Zone. All thematic fields address a clear problem posed to society by climate change, and will generate results to guide the strategic development of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies at local, national and global scales. The Tyndall Centre is named after the 19th century UK scientist John Tyndall, who was the first to prove the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect and suggested that slight changes in atmospheric composition could bring about climate variations. In addition, he was committed to improving the quality of science education and knowledge. The Tyndall Centre is a partnership of the following institutions: University of East Anglia UMIST Southampton Oceanography Centre University of Southampton University of Cambridge Centre for Ecology and Hydrology SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research (University of Sussex) Institute for Transport Studies (University of Leeds) Complex Systems Management Centre (Cranfield University) Energy Research Unit (CLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory) The Centre is core funded by the following organisations: Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) UK Government Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) For more information, visit the Tyndall Centre Web site (www.tyndall.ac.uk) or contact: External Communications Manager Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK Phone: +44 (0) 1603 59 3906; Fax: +44 (0) 1603 59 3901 Email: tyndall@uea.ac.uk

Tyndall Working Papers are available online at http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/working_papers.shtml Mitchell, T. and Hulme, M. (2000). A Country-byCountry Analysis of Past and Future Warming Rates, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 1. Hulme, M. (2001). Integrated Assessment Models, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 2. Berkhout, F, Hertin, J. and Jordan, A. J. (2001). Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as 'learning machines', Tyndall Centre Working Paper 3. Barker, T. and Ekins, P. (2001). How High are the Costs of Kyoto for the US Economy?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 4. Barnett, J. (2001). The issue of 'Adverse Effects and the Impacts of Response Measures' in the UNFCCC, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 5. Goodess, C.M., Hulme, M. and Osborn, T. (2001). The identification and evaluation of suitable scenario development methods for the estimation of future probabilities of extreme weather events, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 6. Barnett, J. (2001). Security and Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 7. Adger, W. N. (2001). Social Capital and Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 8. Barnett, J. and Adger, W. N. (2001). Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 9. Gough, C., Taylor, I. and Shackley, S. (2001). Burying Carbon under the Sea: An Initial Exploration of Public Opinions, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 10. Barker, T. (2001). Representing the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Adaptation and Mitigation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 11. Dessai, S., (2001). The climate regime from The Hague to Marrakech: Saving or sinking the Kyoto Protocol?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 12. Dewick, P., Green K., Miozzo, M., (2002). Technological Change, Industry Structure and the Environment, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 13. Shackley, S. and Gough, C., (2002). The Use of Integrated Assessment: An Institutional Analysis Perspective, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 14. Köhler, J.H., (2002). Long run technical change in an energy-environment-economy (E3) model for an IA system: A model of Kondratiev waves, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 15. Adger, W.N., Huq, S., Brown, K., Conway, D. and Hulme, M. (2002). Adaptation to climate change: Setting the Agenda for Development Policy and Research, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 16. Dutton, G., (2002). Hydrogen Energy Technology, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 17. Watson, J. (2002). The development of large technical systems: implications for hydrogen, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 18. Pridmore, A. and Bristow, A., (2002). The role of hydrogen in powering road transport, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 19. Turnpenny, J. (2002). Reviewing organisational use of scenarios: Case study - evaluating UK energy policy options, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 20. Watson, W. J. (2002). Renewables and CHP Deployment in the UK to 2020, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 21. Watson, W.J., Hertin, J., Randall, T., Gough, C. (2002). Renewable Energy and Combined Heat and Power Resources in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 22. Paavola, J. and Adger, W.N. (2002). Justice and adaptation to climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 23. Xueguang Wu, Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. (2002). Impact of Integrating Renewables and CHP into the UK Transmission Network, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 24 Xueguang Wu, Mutale, J., Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. (2003). An investigation of Network Splitting for Fault Level Reduction, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 25 Brooks, N. and Adger W.N. (2003). Country level risk measures of climate-related natural disasters and implications for adaptation to climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 26 Tompkins, E.L. and Adger, W.N. (2003). Building resilience to climate change through adaptive management of natural resources, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 27

Dessai, S., Adger, W.N., Hulme, M., Köhler, J.H., Turnpenny, J. and Warren, R. (2003). Defining and experiencing dangerous climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 28 Brown, K. and Corbera, E. (2003). A MultiCriteria Assessment Framework for CarbonMitigation Projects: Putting “development” in the centre of decision-making, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 29 Hulme, M. (2003). Abrupt climate change: can society cope?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 30 Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine A. and O’Riordan, T. (2003). A scoping study of UK user needs for managing climate futures. Part 1 of the pilotphase interactive integrated assessment process (Aurion Project), Tyndall Centre Working Paper 31 Xueguang Wu, Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. (2003). Integrating Renewables and CHP into the UK Electricity System: Investigation of the impact of network faults on the stability of large offshore wind farms, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 32 Pridmore, A., Bristow, A.L., May, A. D. and Tight, M.R. (2003). Climate Change, Impacts, Future Scenarios and the Role of Transport, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 33 Dessai, S., Hulme, M (2003). Does climate policy need probabilities?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 34 Tompkins, E. L. and Hurlston, L. (2003). Report to the Cayman Islands’ Government. Adaptation lessons learned from responding to tropical cyclones by the Cayman Islands’ Government, 1988 – 2002, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 35 Kröger, K. Fergusson, M. and Skinner, I. (2003). Critical Issues in Decarbonising Transport: The Role of Technologies, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 36 Ingham, A. and Ulph, A. (2003) Uncertainty, Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost of Carbon, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 37 Brooks, N. (2003). Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: a conceptual framework, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 38 Tompkins, E.L. and Adger, W.N. (2003). Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 39

Klein, R.J.T., Lisa Schipper, E. and Dessai, S. (2003), Integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate and development policy: three research questions, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 40 Watson, J. (2003), UK Electricity Scenarios for 2050, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 41 Kim, J. A. (2003), Sustainable Development and the CDM: A South African Case Study, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 42 Anderson, D. and Winne, S. (2003), Innovation and Threshold Effects in Technology Responses to Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 43 Shackley, S., McLachlan, C. and Gough, C. (2004) The Public Perceptions of Carbon Capture and Storage, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 44 Purdy, R. and Macrory, R. (2004) Geological carbon sequestration: critical legal issues, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 45 Watson, J., Tetteh, A., Dutton, G., Bristow, A., Kelly, C., Page, M. and Pridmore, A., (2004) UK Hydrogen Futures to 2050, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 46 Berkhout, F., Hertin, J. and Gann, D. M., (2004) Learning to adapt: Organisational adaptation to climate change impacts, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 47 Pan, H. (2004) The evolution of economic structure under technological development, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 48 Awerbuch, S. (2004) Restructuring our electricity networks to promote decarbonisation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 49 Powell, J.C., Peters, M.D., Ruddell, A. & Halliday, J. (2004) Fuel Cells for a Sustainable Future? Tyndall Centre Working Paper 50 Agnolucci, P., Barker, T. & Ekins, P. (2004) Hysteresis and energy demand: the Announcement Effects and the effects of the UK climate change levy, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 51 Agnolucci, P. (2004) Ex post evaluations of CO2 –Based Taxes: A Survey, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 52

Agnolucci, P. & Ekins, P. (2004) The Announcement Effect and environmental taxation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 53 Turnpenny, J., Carney, S., Haxeltine, A., & O’Riordan, T. (2004) Developing regional and local scenarios for climate change mitigation and adaptation, Part 1: A framing of the East of England, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 54 Mitchell, T.D. Carter, T.R., Jones, .P.D, Hulme, M. and New, M. (2004) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100), Tyndall Centre Working Paper 55 Vincent, K. (2004) Creating an index of social vulnerability to climate change for Africa, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 56 Shackley, S., Reiche, A. and Mander, S (2004) The Public Perceptions of Underground Coal Gasification (UCG): A Pilot Study, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 57 Bray, D and Shackley, S. (2004) The Social Simulation of The Public Perceptions of Weather Events and their Effect upon the Development of Belief in Anthropogenic Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 58 Anderson, D and Winne, S. (2004) Modelling Innovation and Threshold Effects In Climate Change Mitigation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 59 Few, R., Brown, K. and Tompkins, E.L. (2004) Scaling adaptation: climate change response and coastal management in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 60 Brooks, N. (2004) Drought in the African Sahel: Long term perspectives and future prospects, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 61 Barker, T. (2004) The transition to sustainability: a comparison of economics approaches, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 62 Few, R., Ahern, M., Matthies, F. and Kovats, S. (2004) Floods, health and climate change: a strategic review, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 63 Peters, M.D. and Powell, J.C. (2004) Fuel Cells for a Sustainable Future II, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 64

Adger, W. N., Brown, K. and Tompkins, E. L. (2004) The political economy of cross-scale networks in resource co-management, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 65 Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine, A., Lorenzoni, I., O’Riordan, T., and Jones, M., (2005) Mapping actors involved in climate change policy networks in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 66 Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine, A. and O’Riordan, T., (2005) Developing regional and local scenarios for climate change mitigation and adaptation: Part 2: Scenario creation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 67 Bleda, M. and Shackley, S. (2005) The formation of belief in climate change in business organisations: a dynamic simulation model, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 68 Tompkins, E. L. and Hurlston, L. A. (2005) Natural hazards and climate change: what knowledge is transferable?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 69 Abu-Sharkh, S., Li, R., Markvart, T., Ross, N., Wilson, P., Yao, R., Steemers, K., Kohler, J. and Arnold, R. (2005) Can Migrogrids Make a Major Contribution to UK Energy Supply?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 70 Boyd, E. Gutierrez, M. and Chang, M. (2005) Adapting small-scale CDM sinks projects to low-income communities, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 71 Lowe, T., Brown, K., Suraje Dessai, S., Doria, M., Haynes, K. and Vincent., K (2005) Does tomorrow ever come? Disaster narrative and public perceptions of climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 72 Walkden, M. (2005) Coastal process simulator scoping study, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 73