Critical Issues in Decarbonising Transport: The Role of Technologies

Katharina Kröger, Malcolm Fergusson and Ian Skinner October 2003

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Working Paper 36

Critical Issues in Decarbonising Transport: The Role of Technologies

Katharina Kröger Malcolm Fergusson Ian Skinner
Institute for European Environmental Policy Dean Bradley House 52 Horseferry Road London SW1P 2AG Email: Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 36 October 2003


Summary This literature review is part of the Tyndall Round 2 project ‘Critical Issues in Decarbonising Transport’. The project is a strategic assessment of the emerging technologies that are or could play a significant role in a future transport system in the context of the need to reduce transport’s emissions of carbon dioxide. While some technologies might contribute to the decarbonising of transport without needing to affect behaviour, others might achieve this only by affecting behaviour. The aim of this review is to characterise the emerging technologies in relation to their potential impact on behaviour and therefore identify the technologies that should be the focus of the next stage of the research. 1 Introduction This literature review is an integral part of a research project funded by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The Tyndall Centre is a national centre for trans-disciplinary research on climate change and funds a range of research looking at various aspects of climate change. The research project in question, which is being undertaken by the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP), together with the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds, is a strategic assessment of the critical issues in decarbonising transport in the UK. The need to decarbonise the transport sector is particularly important in terms of combating climate change, as to date reducing greenhouse gas emissions from this sector has proved relatively more difficult compared with other sectors (Fergusson, 2002). The objective of the project is to identify potential pathways to low carbon transport futures by examining in detail the various factors that might affect the way in which low carbon technologies might be introduced. The transport-related literature tends to keep the discussions on the technicalities of new fuelling, automotive and information and communication technologies (ICT) and the ‘soft’ aspects of travel behaviour/trends separate. As will be seen below, literature about new fuelling technologies and developments in vehicle configuration does not typically address the link of these technologies to travel behaviour/trends in much detail. Clearly, a significant change in technology which has a possible bearing on total transport (CO2) emissions may also, if it changes the nature of the service provided as well as substituting for an older technology, have an influence on travel behaviour. Conversely, other exogenous trends in society, etc, which affect the scale or nature of travel demand may also have important influences on the choice of technologies taken up or the extent to which they displace others. Literature about ICT developments does address this relationship, but not necessarily in a systematic or comprehensive way (eg Niles, 1994; NEPI, 2000; NERA, 1997 and 2000; RAC, 2002). This study aims at matching these two aspects more comprehensively, and in a more critical fashion. That is to say that it will look at the potential impacts of technological developments on existing travel trends and highlight which areas are in particular need of policy attention in order to ensure that the development of new technologies does lead to a less carbon intense transport system. This review is one of two that form the first stage of the project. The other reviews the trends in UK transport that have contributed to increased travel and increased CO2 emissions (Kelly and Bristow, 2003). This review focuses on the potential role of technology and its potential impacts on behaviour, in particular: • • the use of new vehicle fuelling technologies (Section 2); new vehicle technologies, including the development of Intelligent Transport Systems (Section 3); and


information and communication technologies teleconferencing and teleshopping (Section 4).




Section 5 summarises the findings of the review. 2 Fuels and Engine Technologies This section reviews the literature in relation to developments in fuelling technologies, both in relation to the engine technology and the fuel that is used. It focuses on four of the main possibilities: • for engines, these are hybrid vehicles, which have an internal combustion engine used in combination with an electric motor; and fuel cell vehicles, which have a dedicated electric motor; while for fuels these are: hydrogen for fuel cells from one of a wide range of possible sources; and biofuels, ie alcohols made from biomass sources.

These are briefly addressed in turn below. 2.1 Hybrid Vehicles

Hybrid vehicles have the potential to deliver some of the benefits of both battery electric and conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) technology, while mitigating some of the more serious limitations of both. In a hybrid, a small ICE engine generates power on-board the vehicle much more efficiently than in a conventional ICE vehicle, not only because it is smaller, but also because it can be operated at near maximum efficiency during most of its operating time. Further, it does not need to provide all the power required during periods of high engine load. For the same reasons, it can also be far cleaner in terms of other pollutants as well as CO2, and less noisy. In a parallel hybrid, auxiliary power is supplied by the electric motor during start up and acceleration, using electricity generated by the ICE engine and stored in a battery, thus providing greater efficiency overall (Fergusson, 2001). There are already two such hybrid car models commercially available (both with small, conventional petrol engines), although others are reported to be ‘production ready’. The first to market was the Toyota Prius. Cost remains a significant hurdle, but the current price premium can be expected to fall rapidly both as sales volumes increase and as the technology matures (DTI, 2003). Calculating the precise fuel economy (and hence CO2) benefit of hybrid engines is difficult, as existing models and prototypes incorporate other vehicle features (eg lightweight structures discussed above) which are not integral to the hybrid technology and could as well be applied to comparable vehicles of any other fuel or engine type to equally good effect. Nonetheless, other things being equal, efficiency gains of at least 20 or 30 per cent, and possibly as much as 50 per cent appear possible. Hybrid technology will soon be applied to diesel engines as well, adding diesel’s advantage in fuel efficiency and CO2 emissions to that of the hybrid configuration itself. Advanced direct injection petrol engines may also be employed to similar effect. Especially when combined with other advanced features, a doubling of fuel economy may well be possible.


Since they run on conventional fuels, hybrids do not require a dedicated infrastructure, and could therefore be introduced quickly and at no infrastructure cost. 2.2 Fuel Cell Vehicles

The fuel cell was invented in the UK nearly two hundred years ago, but there were no obvious uses for it at the time. Only in the 1960s was it first applied in earnest in the US’s Gemini spacecraft (Nevin, 1999). Since that time the pace of technological progress has picked up dramatically, and now we seem to be on the verge of production cars with fuel cell power sources (Fergusson, 2001). With persistent air quality problems forcing ever tighter emission standards, the fuel cell appears to be offering the sort of ‘emissions free’ performance which battery-powered electric cars have so long failed to deliver. From the road transport technology perspective, there have in recent years been important and substantial technical advances in fuel cell technology, at a rapid pace, most notably in relation to low temperature fuel cells. These are less efficient than high temperature cells, but in several respects more practical for mobile applications. There are a number of configurations of fuel cell under development or investigation (eg see DTLR et al, 2001). Of these, the most promising at present appears to be the proton exchange membrane (PEM) cell type for light duty vehicles, and this is the path being most actively investigated by manufacturers seeking to produce working models for passenger cars in the next few years. There are strong possibilities for simple mass production of this particular technology, which in turn suggests that costs could fall rapidly once the technology began to be deployed on a significant scale (Fergusson, 2001). PEM fuel cells require pure hydrogen as a fuel (see below), which combines with oxygen in the fuel cell to generate electricity, which then drives an electric motor. The result is an extremely quiet vehicle with a motor which is much more responsive in terms of power output than is possible in a battery electric vehicle, and with little or no exhaust emissions apart from water. Regardless of their fuel source, fuel cells have the advantage that they are inherently far more energy-efficient than ICEs in road vehicles, in particular because they operate effectively at low and variable loads, which ICEs do not. Fuel cells can deliver a sustained 60 per cent energy conversion efficiency, whereas ICEs have a maximum efficiency of 40 and 45 per cent for petrol and diesel respectively, and normally operate well below this level. Energy consumption can thus be halved in urban driving in particular. 2.3 Hydrogen for Fuel Cells

As noted above, fuel cells for vehicles are powered by hydrogen. Perhaps the key question for the development of fuel cell engines, however, is how the hydrogen is to be generated and stored. There are three main routes whereby the hydrogen can be delivered to the fuel cell, as follows: • • • Hydrogen generated in a stationary plant and pumped into a tank in the vehicle in either compressed or liquefied form; Methanol fuel, reformed to hydrogen on board the vehicle; Petrol (with very low sulphur content) reformed on board the vehicle.

There are currently differing perspectives on the most commercially advantageous path to pursue out of these three options. Provided that on-board storage of hydrogen can be adequately addressed, vehicle manufacturers prefer the off-vehicle hydrogen formulation options, as this greatly reduces the technical challenges to be overcome within the vehicle,


along with the resultant complexities and higher costs of manufacture. Energy suppliers tend, in contrast, to favour on-board reformation of clean petrol or methanol, as these two pathways require much more limited changes to the fuel supply systems than hydrogen would. If hydrogen manufactured outside of the vehicle is to be used, a large number of different sources may be utilised on the pathway to the longer-term goal of hydrogen from purely renewable sources. In the short term these include the use of hydrogen from oil refineries or other industrial plants (although this source is limited in extent and not a low carbon option), followed later by a wide range of alternatives including steam reforming of natural gas (large scale or local); generating hydrogen from oil or coal (ideally with CO2 sequestration); pyrolysis of biomass; and electrolysis of water (preferably using renewable or low-carbon electricity). Costs of these various sources also vary significantly, however, as do their full fuel cycle environmental implications (Padro and Putsche, 1999). Regarding the means of supplying hydrogen to the vehicle, there are compelling reasons of cost and technical complexity to concur with the conclusion set out in the recent report from the Institute for Public Policy Research (Foley, 2001) on hydrogen fuel – ie that on-board reformation of methanol is likely to prove an expensive dead end, and that reformation of gasoline is both technically demanding and offers few long-term benefits in terms of either energy supply or environment. Regarding the environmental implications of these various options, a recent report from the Pembina Institute in Canada (2000) found that only the reformation of natural gas reduces greenhouse gas emissions substantially, on the assumption that renewable or nuclear electricity is not yet available. The two on-board reformation options were argued to offer much smaller savings - arguably no better than the improvement expected over the next ten years in conventional engines. Unfortunately the latter options are, as noted above, the ones likely to be favoured by a range of industrial interests, so it is important to ensure that the most environmentally-beneficial development path is the one to be pursued. 2.4 Biofuels

Biofuels are one of the few options for producing liquid (or indeed gaseous) fuel for conventional motor vehicles from non-fossil sources. In principle they can offer diversification away from oil-dependence and a substantial reduction in CO2 emissions. Other environmental benefits are frequently claimed for biofuels (most notably in terms of other exhaust pollutants) but as conventional engines improve, these are becoming, at best, marginal. For the UK, the most immediately promising primary crop source of domestically-produced biofuel is biodiesel or rape methyl ester (RME) from rapeseed oil. It can also be made from used vegetable oil. There is already a significant level of commercial production from rapeseed in a number of other countries with the encouragement of substantial fuel duty reductions and other incentives (Fergusson, 2001). Biodiesel can be used as a direct substitute for mineral diesel fuel, but this presents some technical problems and requires minor engine modifications. Given the likely limitations on supply, blending up to 5 per cent of RME into conventional diesel is a preferable approach, which presents no significant technical problems – indeed, biodiesel can be used to enhance the lubricity of low-sulphur diesel. In theory, biofuels can be carbon-free, as the carbon emitted when they are burned was absorbed from the atmosphere as they grew. In practice, however, the carbon saving from biodiesel made from primary food crops is limited, because growing and processing the crops


requires a high level of energy use and other inputs. Other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are also emitted during the cultivation process – notably nitrous oxide from fertiliser applications (Mortimer et al, 2003). Biodiesel from waste oil is far more attractive in terms of its net GHG balance, as it is an effective way of utilising the energy content of a product that would otherwise go to waste. In the short term, production of bioethanol from wheat or sugar beet suffers from many of the same limitations as biodiesel. Large-scale production is already found in several other countries (notably the US and Brazil, but less so within Europe), and always with heavy subsidies. As with RME, only a few percent of national motor fuel requirements could be met from domestic agriculture, even through the use of all available land, including set-aside. Furthermore, the production process is energy-inefficient, as a large amount of heat is needed to obtain ethanol of the required concentration. In the longer term, however, new technologies may make it possible to produce ethanol commercially from ligno-cellulosic crops, or vegetable waste materials, at more cost-effective prices. An advantage of this approach is that the residues from the process could also be efficiently utilised as an energy source. If this option becomes viable, then ethanol can be used initially as a fuel extender for conventional petrol (or even diesel) requiring no modifications to vehicle engines up to at least 5 per cent of the fuel by volume. Bioethanol might then form part of a more efficient utilisation of biomass energy in the medium term. Eyre et al (2002) suggest that a substantial share of UK road fuels could be produced from short rotation coppice crops if combined with highly efficient engines. 2.5 Discussion

Most of the attributes of these various fuelling and engine technologies do not materially affect travel behaviour. However, it is possible that certain technical changes in fuels or engine types might have some bearing on the future patterns of vehicle use, and these are therefore addressed briefly in the sections that follow. The attributes that are discussed are summarised in Table 1. Attribute Vehicle emissions Table 1: The attributes of alternative engine and fuel technology Engines Fuels Hybrid Fuel cell electric Biofuels Hydrogen
Reduces regulated pollutants and CO2 Virtually no tailpipe emissions, but may be upstream emissions Tailpipe emissions may be reduced; fuel cycle CO2 reduced, but also may be some N2O Engine-dependent Some types may adversely affect performance of conventional engines Significant new infrastructure Probably Tailpipe emissions reduced or eliminated; fuel cycle emissions vary greatly according to production method Engine-dependent Engine-dependent

Vehicle noise Speed and drivability

Engine noise reduced Probably improved

Engine noise virtually eliminated Probably improved

Refuelling infrastructure Cost of

May use existing infrastructure May reduce

Probably requires major new infrastructure Uncertain

Major new infrastructure Probably


motoring Ancillary features 2.6

running costs Yes


increased costs Engine-dependent

increased costs Engine-dependent

Vehicle Emissions

A number of the alternative fuel and engine options currently available or in prospect offer substantial reductions in emissions, either of conventional toxic pollutants, or of greenhouse gases, or both. In the case of motorists with a strong environmental consciousness, these may be seen to be important advantages, which made be accompanied by certain aesthetic benefits, such as reduced odour from vehicle exhaust fumes, and/or other positive feelings relating to the novel technology of the vehicle. In these cases, it is possible that the new technology might reduce inhibitions against using the vehicle in certain circumstances, or even actively encourages some additional use. In the main, however, there does not appear as yet to be any evidence of any direct correlation between reduced emissions and patterns of vehicle use. In addition, however, it is worth considering the extent to which alternatively fuelled vehicles might benefit from preferential access to certain locations on account of their superior environmental performance. Currently, for example, there is a range of schemes under consideration that would offer preferential access for cleaner vehicles into areas with persistent air quality problems (Clear Zones, 2003; NSCA Cleaner Transport Forum, 1999). Similarly, such vehicles are currently exempted from London's new congestion charge (TfL, 2003). In the short-term, these benefits might encourage the use of novel technologies in such areas. However, as the technologies become more widespread, then it is likely that the benefits offered for their use will be correspondingly reduced. It therefore seems unlikely that effects of this sort will have a substantial bearing upon future patterns of vehicle use. As argued below, however, it is likely that more radical technologies will be deployed first in larger fleet vehicles rather than private cars. For example, three fuel cell hydrogen buses will begin trial operations in London shortly (GLA, 2002). As with cars, it may be that the new technology will attach some extra ‘cachet’ to bus use, making it appeal to a wider passenger base than at present. 2.7 Vehicle Noise

Equally, some alternative fuels and the major alternative engine options offer substantial benefits in terms of reduced engine noise. These relate in particular to the substitution of electric motors for the internal combustion engine (DTI, 2003). Note however that this will not entirely do away with the noise of the vehicle, as at high speeds it is tyre noise that predominates rather than engine noise, and this is difficult to abate. Nonetheless, the noise benefits are likely to be substantial particularly when travelling in urban areas. As with reduced emissions, but perhaps to a greater extent, this seems likely to offer a substantial benefit in terms of the utility of the vehicle to its user. Once more, it is possible that this additional benefit will encourage additional driving, but as yet there is little or no evidence to suggest the degree of significance of this possible effect. Certainly it has been suggested that this change in the functioning of road vehicles could be accompanied by a significant paradigm shift, whereby the expectation of ‘the roar of the engine’ is superseded (Fergusson, 2001). On the other hand, silent vehicles may have implications for road safety, resulting in the need for further policy responses, eg further traffic calming or other speed control measures in residential and pedestrian-oriented areas (eg Pridmore and Bristow, 2001).



Speed and Drivability

Historically, alternatively fuelled vehicles have often been inferior to conventional internal combustion engined vehicles in terms of speed, range or other aspects of performance, the most notable example of this being the battery-powered electric vehicle. In the future, however, this will not necessarily be the case. Indeed, hybrid engines may be able to offer greater power for acceleration than conventional vehicles, for example. Furthermore, an accompanying switch from a central engine to small electric motors individually powering each wheel offers the possibility of greater drivability, reliability, better roadholding, more effective braking, etc. The development of the private car has in recent decades been characterised by steady improvements in attributes such as these, which are widely believed within the motor industry to contribute to the marketability of private vehicles. It therefore follows from this that changes in the way in which future vehicles are powered may also make them easier and more attractive to drive. Absence of gears or conventional mechanical steering may even allow additional people to drive who have not hitherto done so, either because they suffer some disability or have simply been unable to master conventional controls. These factors are likely to lead to or at least encourage some increase in vehicle numbers, distances driven, and/or in the speed at which vehicles are driven. 2.9 Refuelling Infrastructure

Many alternatively-fuelled vehicle types suffer some kind of drawback in terms of refuelling requirements relative to conventional petrol diesel engines. For example, battery electric vehicles suffer from lengthy recharging times, poor availability of recharging infrastructure, etc. Equally, vehicles using gaseous fuels require different types of refuelling nozzles with which the average motorist is unfamiliar, and different sorts of fuel delivery pumps. Furthermore, many alternative fuels require a radically different refuelling infrastructure from that which is currently in place, and this will not emerge overnight, or without a clear expectation of returns on investment. For this reason, most alternative fuels are caught in a classic ‘chicken and egg’ dilemma whereby vehicle manufacturers will not deploy new technologies if there is no refuelling infrastructure to fuel them, whereas energy supply companies are reluctant to invest in substantial new infrastructure while there is no significant or assured demand. Some clear conclusions have emerged regarding a national refuelling network, which are of relevance to the present study (Fergusson, 2001): • • that the challenges are substantial for the introduction of any alternative fuel, so a comprehensive national infrastructure is unlikely to be developed for an interim fuel which will be used only for a limited number of years. that the above does not preclude the possibility of a different alternative fuel being used for some niche areas, most obviously heavy duty ‘captive’ fleets, where the alternative has clear technical or cost advantages.

Alternatively it may be that local refuelling infrastructure may develop first, only developing into a national grid at a later date. There are also two important routes to the deployment of alternative fuels, which limit the need for such a large scale installation of new refuelling technology, at least at the outset.


These are to focus on fleet vehicles (Foley, 2001; DTLR et al, 2001), and to deploy bi-fuelled vehicles. The first of these suggests a focus on vehicles other than the private car for novel technologies; while the latter is the route being employed to promote LPG vehicles. Even in the latter case, however, it has taken significant effort to build up as sufficiently dense network of refuelling points across the country, and arguably, even now of this network is excessively sparse in some areas. All of this suggests that, at least in the near future, the more radical alternative fuel and engine technologies will be deployed primarily in vehicles other than the private car. Furthermore, if they are used in cars, these will be in cars used for specific rather than general purposes, for example for limited mileage or used within a relatively restricted geographical area. From this it can be concluded that, from this perspective at least, novel fuel and vehicle technologies will have if anything a limited and limiting effect upon travel by private car. 2.10 Cost of Motoring

Clearly, individual travel behaviour is significantly influenced by both the absolute and relative costs of the various modes of transport available. For example, a wide range of studies of the elasticity of demand for motor fuels with respect to price have established a clear relationship between the price of fuel and both the amount of fuel consumed and the distance travelled (Goodwin, 1992; Graham and Glaister, 2002). Thus any technological changes that materially affect the cost of motoring or travelling by other modes need to be considered in this analysis. At present, however, the underlying costs of all alternative road fuels and vehicles exceed those of conventional fuels and vehicles. This is the main reason why such alternatives have made relatively limited inroads into the vehicle fleet, at least when not encouraged by subsidies, tax reductions, etc. Although economies of scale and further technical innovation is likely to bring down the costs of some of the more promising alternative technologies in future years, there is no immediate prospect of alternative technologies becoming cheaper than conventional ones. Ultimately, the point at which fuel cell vehicles become competitive with advanced ICEs will depend on the demand for the technology in its early years and the solutions adopted to overcome outstanding technical problems, such as that of producing and/or storing hydrogen (DeCicco, 2001). However, in the longer term, there are reasons to suppose that some radical alternative engine and vehicle configurations could become substantially cheaper and simpler to manufacture than conventional vehicles, because the components will be easier to manufacture, there will be many fewer moving parts, etc (Fergusson, 2001). 2.11 Ancillary Features

A significant feature of a number of possible future engine developments, such as the use of hybrids or fuel cell vehicles, is that they will contribute substantially to the ‘electrification’ of the vehicle. As well as influencing the drivability of vehicles, as outlined above, this process will make much more electric power available to power an ever-increasing range of accessories within the vehicle. Many of these accessories, as outlined in the sections that follow, may have an indirect effect on travel behaviour and the way in which vehicles are used.



Concluding remarks

From the above discussion, it can be concluded that in the short-term there is little prospect that changes in engine or fuel technology will have a substantial impact on travel behaviour in terms of distance travelled, and thereby on the level of greenhouse gas emissions. It will therefore be the direct impact of the alternative technologies upon the level of greenhouse gas emissions, which is the dominant effect. In the longer term, however, there is some possibility that radical changes in technology could significantly reduce the real cost of travel, and if this were to occur, then increases in distance travelled might result. In summary, therefore: • • • • Improvements to the emissions and noise performance of vehicles might increase the attractiveness of driving and therefore might increase the amount of travel by car, but this is only likely to be a marginal effect. In the longer-term, alternatively-fuelled cars might compare favourably, in terms of performance (speed, driveability, etc), with conventionally-fuelled cars, which might encourage increased travel. Similarly, if the costs of alternatively-fuelled cars become cheaper then conventionally-fuelled cars, then this might encourage car ownership. In the short-term, refuelling issues may limit the application of alternatively-fuelled vehicles to fleet vehicles, such as buses, taxis, etc.

3 Vehicle Technology This section looks at the potential impacts on travel behaviour of the rapid development and implementation of new body and in-car technologies and Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). 3.1 Body Technology

Concerning future vehicle technologies, RAC (2002) argues that the exterior of the future ‘mainstream’ passenger vehicle will look quite similar to the one we know today, characterised by a ‘one-box’ body that can seat four occupants, has sufficient luggage space and runs on four pneumatic tyres. The interior will be more flexible, allowing conversions for different purposes. This however seems rather too limited a view. Already there are trends towards the design of two-seat cars, eg the Smart Car (being only 2.5 m long, Smart 2003) and multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs) such as Mercedes V-Class or Renault Espace. Whilst the former offer great individual mobility, the latter are often characterised by flexible seating and luggage arrangements and the possibility to seat more than four people. It may be argued that the available variety in car design, particularly in size and flexibility, encourages car ownership in general and second car ownership in particular, and hence more car use and more pollution. It is not clear whether the availability of small cars is linked to the rise in second car ownership; however DTLR (2001) makes clear that the number of households with two or more cars has increased on a steady and unbroken trend from 1970 through to 2000, so it is not self-evident that any such relationship between body design and car ownership patterns in fact exists. Indeed, this assumption may be to mistake cause and effect, in that demand for second cars may have created a market for new designs. However, sufficiently detailed analyses that can resolve this question are missing from the literature.


Another notable innovation is the advent of ‘smart’ active suspension systems for road vehicles. Historically there has been a trade-off in vehicle design between the ability of vehicle suspension systems to cope with heavy loads, and the comfort of the ride for passengers when the vehicle is carrying only a normal load, and this has limited the carrying capacity of ordinary passenger cars. Now, however, there are growing possibilities of suspension systems that can adapt themselves far more positively to the load at any given time. This, when combined with the variable seat configurations noted above, offers the possibility of increased flexibility in terms of the carriage of passengers or other goods. Similarly, advances in the use of lightweight material, etc may offer other, more far-reaching changes in vehicle design, production and use (Maeder, 2000), but these have yet to be fully considered in relation to traffic, behaviour or pollution. 3.2 In-car technology

The interior of vehicles will be more technologically advanced. RAC (2002) notes that there is a ‘strong design trend towards making the car a “mobile living room” for family and leisure use, …’ (p. 61), which will be encouraged by ‘on-board auxiliary power’ and “multimedia interface” allowing the vehicle to access a wide range of broadcast information for entertainment’ (p. 61). Noise in the interior of the car will be reduced through the installation of refined sound-deadening and insulation technologies (RAC, 2002). Such features could render driving more attractive and safe, which in turn could encourage more travel. In terms of environmental implications, these new electrical gadgets may use considerable amounts of power, which reduces fuel efficiency and pushes up greenhouse gas emissions. Mobile air conditioning will become a standard feature in future vehicles, even in northern Europe. ARAP (2003) argues that they may reduce greenhouse gas outputs compared to open window driving, which leads to increased fuel consumption due to aerodynamic drag. However, work undertaken for the European Climate Change Programme has concluded that emissions of greenhouse gas resulting from wider use of air conditioners are likely to increase (DG Environment, 2003). Mobile air conditioners result in direct emissions of fluorinated gas (HFCs-134a in most systems after 1994) and indirect emissions of carbon dioxide, both GHGs (European Commission, 2003; Schwarz, 2002). HFC is a gas with a very strong warming effect and it exacerbates global warming when released into the atmosphere (DENSO, 2003). What is more, the leakage rate of car air conditioners is greater than that of other cooling systems (Greenpeace, 2003). Technical and political efforts are being made to reduce GHG emissions from mobile air conditioners. For example, DENSO aims to design more environmentally friendly vehicle air conditioners and the European Commission is seeking political options to reduce negative environmental impacts from mobile air conditioners (DG Environment, 2003). Nevertheless, they will continue to have adverse effects on the environment and influence climate change considerably. With increasing travel levels potentially exacerbated by new body technologies, environmental impacts, eg on greenhouse gas emissions, will worsen. 3.3 Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)

‘Intelligent Transportation Systems [ITS] is a broad range of diverse technologies applied to transportation to make systems safer, more efficient, more reliable, and more environmentally friendly, without necessarily having to physically alter existing infrastructure’ (Transport Canada, 2002). ITS make use of a variety of advanced technologies, including computers, communications, sensors, collision warning systems and vehicle-sensing technologies, in order to secure, manage and control transportation systems. ITS services can be divided into two categories: ‘intelligent infrastructure’ (including electronic toll collection and incident


management systems) and ‘intelligent vehicles’ (including collision avoidance and warning) (Proper, 1999). These technologies may be applied to road, rail, air and sea transport, but research on surface transport, which is the focus of this study, has concentrated on the private car. To give some examples of ITS applications and functions, ITS provide information about traffic so that the driver is able to make an informed choice about when to drive, which route to take, or which transport mode to use, thus making the transport network more efficient. ITS applications contribute to car safety by informing the driver about distance and lane keeping. In the future the driver will also increasingly have available assistance regarding parking spaces, service stations and hotels (RAC, 2002). In particular, Global Positioning Systems (GPS) will be an important information system shaping future vehicle design. Amongst its functions are the automatic location of the vehicle and the electronic charging of road fees. GPS systems will be of considerable value to individual drivers as well as to fleet and business operators, because operations of vehicles can be planned and carried out more efficiently. ENDS (2001) illustrates these new ITS technologies as follows: ‘As she joins her "pod" of vehicles travelling for the next three junctions on the motorway, she can relax. The on board computer takes over, checking speed and controlling braking systems to ensure collision avoidance as well as monitoring road and weather conditions, while she catches up with the e-mail and newspapers. She is directed to a parking space as she approaches her destination and informed that a tyre technician will be there to meet her. Her sensor has detected that her tyres are reaching the recommended limit.’ Some studies have investigated the impacts of ITS applications on transportation systems and the environment, including the US Department of Transport’s Joint Program Office, the University of Southern California and ERTICO. Various authors (eg ISEB, 2000; ERTICO, 2003; Proper, 1999) claim environmental benefits resulting from ITS applications, which are mainly indirect and result from the decrease in mileage and fuel consumption and fewer GHG emissions (ERTICO, 2003). For example, Graham and Marvin (1999) suggest that the provision of information about road conditions may improve the efficiency of the network, which could result in a 6% reduction in mileage. The Urban Traffic Control System (SURF 2000) in Paris has resulted in a decrease in congestion, which enabled a better flow in the traffic system (20% savings in travel times and 30% reduction in the number of stops) and a reduction of fuel consumption by 10% (ERTICO, 2003; see ERTICO for more success stories of ITS applications). The Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau- und Wohnungswesen (2003) sees the main environmental benefit of ITS applications in the integration of transport modes, mainly the shift from the private car to public transport. For example, the ‘Countdown’ project is the London Transport Buses’ real-time information system for bus passengers. The system comprises Automatic Vehicle Location, radio communications, central computer cluster, data base file server, and bus stop signs (ERTICO, 2003). The bus stop signs display information about arrival times and destinations, which results in a more effective bus system. One of the stated benefits is a better control of the bus fleet by the operators (ERTICO, 2003). Whilst the ‘Countdown’ project only displays travel information on-site, there are developing examples of information provision elsewhere – perhaps most critically, before the would-be passenger has left their point of departure such as home or office. For example, the US Department of Transportation (2003) has introduced Transit ITS Traveller Information Systems that provide travellers directly with travel information, eg through telephones, personal computers, pagers and the internet. Therefore, ITS applications have the potential to encourage shifts in travel behaviour to public transport, which would reduce environmental impacts from transport. However, this relationship is not clearly established in the literature.


It should be added that ITS also offers enhanced opportunities for enabling traffic management systems of various types, including charging and tolling systems, speed controls, etc. These would generally have a positive effect on emissions levels, and so in this regard the contribution of ITS to travel behaviour and emissions can be seen as primarily a positive one. The US Department of Transportation website shows some useful examples of such applications. 3.4 Discussion

There is no doubt that vehicle technologies have the potential to change the way in which vehicles are used, and the attractiveness or flexibility of doing so. It is noteworthy that much of the discussion summarised above is related specifically to cars. This focus on benefits may be due to the fact that private industries and interests drive technological developments in this field, particularly in the car manufacturing area. In principle, however, there is no reason why many of the technologies outlined here could not equally be applied to public transport – and indeed some already are. The way in which these technologies develop, and whether they are preferentially applied to cars or to public transport, has the potential to have a significant influence on travel behaviour, and on the balance between the different modes. Furthermore, it is also worth noting that the literature emphasises the potentially positive effects, including on the environment, of ITS applications in the transport sector, the most important ones being enhanced security and improved flow of the road network. However, this emphasis on benefits is sometimes uncritical or simplistic, perhaps reflecting the vested interests of the advocates of the new technologies. This is reflected in the number of reports from interest groups, but a shortage of objective, academic analysis. An alternative argument could be the application of the logic of the induced traffic debate, as characterised by SACTRA (1994), to the use of ITS to improve the efficiency of the road network. As a result of the work of SACTRA, it is now widely accepted that that the provision of more road space has actually induces traffic with the result that the new road space soon fills up. Extending the conclusion, it could be argued that improving traffic flows and the efficiency of the network through the application of ITS effectively only increases the capacity of the road network and thus could induce traffic and subsequently CO2 emissions. This is in contrast to many of the authors quoted above, who predict a reduction in traffic levels as a result of wider application of ITS. However, as Hojer (1996) underlines, the impact of ITS depends on how it is implemented. If, for example, ITS is combined with some form of road pricing to both improve flow and manage demand, then there could still be positive environmental benefits. In relation to in-car technological developments, those that make a car more comfortable could encourage its use, but there are no indications from the literature whether this effect might be significant. Finally, there is the possibility that more varied vehicle designs might stimulate the market for second or third cars, as these offer a significantly different product in terms of where it might be used, eg in urban areas for two-seat cars such as Smart. Again, it is far from clear whether this is a real phenomenon that might be significant. However, a range of ‘smart’ technologies is now enabling changes to patterns of vehicle ownership and use – such as facilitating secure access to shared cars in car clubs or car share schemes (eg Meijkamp, 2000), and improving booking services for community taxis, flexible bus services (Wigglybus, 2003). This underlines the need for more focus on the potential implications of ITS applications on future vehicle patterns and resulting environmental consequences.


In summary, therefore: • • Developments in in-car technology, which will contribute to making the car more comfortable, may encourage additional journeys, but this is only likely to be at the margins. Developments in ITS have the potential to increase the efficiency of the use of infrastructure. However, in turn this could make driving more attractive and thus increase travel, as well as potentially inducing additional traffic, through effectively increasing the capacity of the network. However, some smart technologies can enable changes to patterns of vehicle ownership and use. The impact on travel behaviour of ITS, therefore, depends on how it is applied, eg ITS applied in parallel to road pricing could change behaviour in an environmentallybeneficial direction.

• •

4 Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs) Information and communications technologies (ICTs) can broadly be defined as ‘a wide range of services, applications, and technologies, using various types of equipment and software’ (Commission of the European Communities, 2001, p. 3). ICT services include telephony, fax, e-mail, transfer of files and the internet. The rapid development and spread of ICTs is often referred to as a new industrial revolution. Vast flows of data, voice, video, and images are being sent across conventional telephone networks, wireless and radio systems, satellite networks, internet and video networks. Access to, and ownership of, personal computers and the internet in the UK has increased significantly over the last decades. According to TUC (2001), in 2001 34% of UK householders had access to the internet from a home computer, compared to 9% in 1998. The power and speed of ICTs has improved considerably in recent years. For example, DSL (digital subscriber line) makes use of digital lines resulting in a faster and more reliable transmission of computer information. DSL technology makes higher speeds (up to 2 Megabits per second) across the twisted pair lines from the exchange to the home possible (European Telework Online, 2003). xDSL technologies, including ADSL, HDSL, VDSL and DSL-Lite are also being introduced or planned (European Telework Online, 2003). The ‘x’ in DSL indicates some variations of DSL. Using xDSL technology, internet access can be sold on a fixed rate basis rather than per minute, which encourages a more intensive and broader use of the internet. Overall, prices for these technologies are falling considerably. ICTs are enabling and facilitating technologies. Therefore, it is important to look at their applications and impacts on travel behaviour, rather than solely at the technologies. Relatively new applications of ICTs with potential implications for transport include teleworking, teleconferencing, and teleshopping. The following sections will look in turn at the literature discussing possible implications of these on travel behaviour. 4.1 Teleworking

Teleworking can be defined as ‘people who work at home at least one day a week and use both a phone and computer to do their job’ (National Statistics, 2002), but different definitions exist. According to the above definition, 2.2 million teleworkers existed in the UK in 2001 (National Statistics, 2002). NERA (1997) suggests an increase in teleworkers of an


average of 15 per cent per year, whilst the UK Department for Transport (2002) suggests a 9 per cent annual increase in the number of workers engaging in teleworking over the next 10 to 15 years. It should be noted, however, that any prediction about teleworking greatly depends on the definition used. Teleworking was the first ICT application to receive political as well as academic interest. It originates from the US where it was seen as the solution to the problem of congested cities and long commuting distances and indeed to the 1970s energy crisis, as it was believed to have a clear substitution effect on physical travel and thus to be a means to cut energy consumption (Mokhtarian, 2000). Various sources, including the European Telework Online (2003), NEPI (1999; 2000) and RAC (2002) underline the potential of telework to reduce travel demand and road congestion by substituting ICTs for travel. According to RAC (2002), teleworking has a significant effect on work trips, suggesting that by 2010 teleworking could lead to a reduction in commuter traffic by 15%. The Bundesanstalt für Strassenwesen (2001) and the Department for Transport (2002) claim a potential reduction of travel through teleworking, especially at peak times. This may lead to falling fuel consumption and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. For example, JALA Associates, Inc. (1990) suggest that the State of California Telecommuting Pilot Project resulted in a fall in total car use in 22% of investigated households, mainly due to reduced commuting activities. They further claim that a telecommuting initiative could result in a 35% drop in commute car use for each telecommuter. It is noteworthy however that this figure does not account for possible additional non-commuting trips. Despite claimed substitution effects of teleworking, various authors argue that ICT applications have actually complementary impacts on vehicle use patterns, for the following main reasons: • • • As commuting may involve multiple trips (eg shopping), teleworking may increase the extra transport effort made for these additional purposes (TRIP, 2003; Marshall and Banister, 2000; Department for Transport, 2002). Other members of the household may use the car ‘released’ by the teleworker, resulting in increasing car trips. The teleworker might also use the car more for purposes other than commuting, profiting from more flexible working times (TRIP, 2003). Teleworkers may move further away from their workplaces, or vice versa, which would increase the distance travelled to work (Graham and Marvin, 1999; NEPI, 2000) and thus kilometres travelled and greenhouse gases released.

Overall, the reviewed literature does not offer a clear-cut picture of the impacts of teleworking on patterns of vehicle use. Further research in this field is needed; ‘[t]he nature of the relationship between flexible working practices and transport patterns is only just beginning to be explored and understood’ (Department for Transport, 2002). Mokhtarian (1996) reinforces this by underlining that telecommunications technology is inherently neutral on travel behaviour; its impacts depend on how we use it. 4.2 Teleconferencing

Teleconferencing may be defined as ‘two-way electronic communications between two or more groups, or three or more individuals, who are in separate locations’, using telecommunications to interconnect people (Teletraining Institute, 2003). Teleconferencing


requires some end-user devices, including personal computers, high resolution graphics systems, voice/data terminals, optical graphic scanners, and/or video systems. Again, there are disagreements in the literature about whether teleconferencing has a substitution or complementary effect on travel behaviour. RAC (2002) states that teleconferencing could lead to a reduction of business travel by 5% in 2010. However, most of the literature in this field does not emphasise this advantage to a great extent. Instead, the main advantages of teleconferencing mentioned are time-savings and travel cost reductions, but in effect these amount to more or less the same outcome. Moreover, technological barriers in terms of quality and equipment costs still hinder the widespread use of video teleconferencing and may do so for some time to come (Department for Transport, 2002; NERA 2000). It is therefore possible that potentially positive effects will be delayed. Teleconferencing has received far less attention in the literature than teleworking or teleshopping. 4.3 Teleshopping

As the word indicates, teleshopping represents the relocation of retail sales from conventional shopping in stores/shops to shopping online, ie via the internet, over the phone or digital TV. Teleshopping activities are not new. For example, people have been ordering products by phone and mail for many years. Recent developments in internet solutions and digital TV have however increased the access to and the possibilities of teleshopping. Research predicts that the total online market will represent 3.36% of the total retail sales in the UK by 2004 (in Browne et al, 2001). RAC (2002) predicts that by 2010, 15% of all grocery sales in the UK will be made online. Between 1997-1999 the purpose of 21% of all trips made in the UK was shopping related and around 80% of these were carried out using a private car (Department for Transport, 2002). Therefore, the impact of teleshopping on the pattern of vehicle use may be considerable. It is argued that teleshopping has the potential to reduce travel demand through the substitution of supermarket shopping by home delivery and through the replacement of shop purchases by internet purchases. RAC (2002) mentions that it could reduce car trips to the shops by 10% by 2010. There has been a particularly steep growth in the commerce of books, CDs, computers and tickets over the internet (Department for Transport, 2002; RAC, 2002). As courier networks already exist, the purchase of those products does not necessarily imply an increase in home deliveries. Thus, some travel reductions can be expected. Teleshopping has enhanced the demand for home deliveries, which may lead to a considerable increase in delivery trips, but Browne et al (2001) argue that home delivery will possibly diminish trip numbers, as the need for personal travel is reduced. Nevertheless, this substitution effect is not fully confirmed. As the Department for Transport (2002) states, ‘Whilst it is probable that some shopping journeys may be replaced by internet transactions in the future, the increase in the number of home delivery movements – including some replacing public transport, cycle and walk journeys – will offset these to a significant extent’. For example, Sainsbury’s is constructing a regional on-line grocery centre in West London that is intended to supply the M25 region (ENDS Report, 2000). There are concerns that this


will encourage extra travel at peak times, as people will want their shopping to be delivered either before or after work, thus at very specific times of the day, as they need to be at home to receive the delivery. 4.4 Beyond substitution versus complementarity

The assessment of the impacts of ICTs has received some academic attention, mainly in the US (eg Mokhtarian, 1996 and 2000; Niles, 1994, 2001a, b and 2002) and the UK (eg Graham and Marvin, 1999) but also in Germany (eg Kordey and Gareis, 2000). Nevertheless, it becomes clear that the literature focuses on one main debate: substitution versus complementarity, ie whether applications of ICTs have a substitution or complementary effect on the patterns of vehicle use. One the one side, NERA (2000) and RAC (2002) suggest that telecommunication developments have great potential to reduce the need for physical travel by substituting for it. NERA (2000) mentions a reduction of increases in traffic congestion by approximately 45%. In this case, the reduction of the number of vehicle trips would be environmentally beneficial, as pollution levels, noise and congestion would all be reduced. On the other side, Graham and Marvin (1999), Handy and Yantis (1997), Niles (1994), Topp (2002) and Zumkeller (2000) suggest that ICTs will have a complementary, rather than a substitution effect on travel, resulting in the increase of physical travel. As Graham et al (1999) state, ‘Overall, transport and telecommunications actually feed off and fuel, more than simply substitute, each other’ (p. 6). Topp (2002) and Zumkeller (2000) compare the impact of ICTs on physical travel with the impact of the telephone, which resulted in an overall increase in physical travel. Zumkeller (2000) claims a connection of the complementary effect of new telecommunications to the fact that transport and media developments have historically been correlated. However, arguably, the complementarity versus substitution is only one dimension of the potential impact on travel. As with the discussion above concerning ITS, the issue of inducing travel might also come into play here. If, for example, some travel to work were to either disappear completely or be transferred to another time or place, then the existing capacity that would have been used by the commuting journey could be taken up by another journey. For the purpose of this project it is positive that the literature does address the relationship between ICT applications and travel behaviour, unlike most commentaries on new vehicle technologies. Nevertheless, three main caveats appear to limit the validity of the current substitution versus complementarity debate. • Firstly, definitions of substitution and complementarity are not clear. For example, whilst Niles (2001b) defines telesubstitution as ‘the use of telecom as a substitute for travel’ (p. 7), Mokhtarian (2000) describes substitution as replacement or elimination of travel. Those definitions describe different types of substitution, which misleads and confuses the debate. A new framework needs to be developed to effectively show the complexity of impacts of ICTs on travel behaviour. Secondly, through the focus on substitution versus complementarity the debate becomes too much reduced to this question. In effect it has tended to polarise analysis and debate, whereas the two types of effect are clearly not mutually exclusive. Therefore the frame of substitution versus complementarity does not seem appropriate to discuss the various and complex impacts of ICTs on travel behaviour. Moreover, due to the concentration on substitution versus complementarity the debate


pays little attention to other relevant aspects such as the environmental consequences of ICT, which are of course of central interest for the purposes of this study. • Thirdly, the substitution versus complementarity debate remains inconclusive, which suggests the need for a fresh approach towards the subject matter. It becomes clear that the discussion needs to establish new, more specific guidelines to assess potential impacts of ICTs on travel behaviour and to incorporate environmental aspects.

Whatever the possibilities of telecommunications to influence travel behaviour, it is important to keep these in perspective. For example, while teleshopping has been successful for certain ‘known’ commodities such as books and CDs, it may be less so for other, more heterogeneous goods. Equally, while some advocates of teleworking stress its importance, there are limits to its reach. For example, all manual workers and many service sector workers are arguably debarred from teleworking to any significant extent, and many others can do so on only an occasional basis. 4.5 A New Approach

All technical changes likely to impact on travel behaviour, such as reduced travel time, necessarily induce complementary effects, as the total of available time is fixed. Thus it is necessary to define these effects in more detail. For current purposes, a new approach to the complementarity debate would require at least the following stages; • • Develop a definition framework for travel behaviour. For example, trips would need to be defined in terms of transport mode, distance travelled, journey time, frequency and purpose(s), etc. Derive an analytical structure capable of illustrating all of the complex impacts of technologies on travel behaviour, and going beyond the substitution versus complementarity debate. Inter alia this should be able to accommodate the complexity of effects, eg by differentiating between direct or short-term effects (eg immediate impact of ICT on individual travel behaviour) and indirect or structural effects (eg effects of ICT on the economy and thus on regional/national travel behaviour). Having undertaken an analysis along these lines, it would also be necessary for current purposes to add a further stage of analysis to include environmental aspects. Up until now, this review illustrates that the literature does not tend to focus specifically on environmental aspects (in particular climate change) of the impacts of transport-related technologies on travel behaviour, although various authors mention them in passing.

The table below illustrates some possible aspects of the development of a fuller analytical framework for changes in travel behaviour, placing in context some of the behaviour changes noted above. It is not however claimed that this list is comprehensive or sufficiently well structured.


Category of Response Non-travel Complementary travel Modal shift

Induced effects

Knock-on effects

Characterisation of Type of Response An avoided trip is substituted with an activity not giving rise to travel The change in vehicle or infrastructure quality leads to a different trips being made (eg modified destinations or purpose) Changes in service quality, cost, etc lead to a similar journey, by a different mode Differences in the service offered by the alternative mode facilitate changes in the nature of the trip (eg different destination, trip chaining options, etc) Teleshopping leads to a delivery trip Enhanced opportunity through time or money saved induces a completely new travel choice Better information or new contacts generate new trip-making aspirations Changing patterns of economic activity (eg out of town shopping) change trip-making behaviour Structural changes (eg changed locational decisions for home or work) A change in travel choice may directly influence the travel behaviour of a third party, eg by offering possibility of a lift, or use of a vehicle previously not available The change may indirectly influence choices of others, eg by making a vehicle or infrastructure more or less crowded, by encouraging new services to be offered, etc

In summary: • • In the simplest analysis, ICT has the potential to replace a particular trip, be it a trip to work, a meeting or to a shop, with a telecommunication. However, the overall effect on travel behaviour is unclear. One of the debates in the literature is over whether ICT has a substitution effect (ie a journey is replaced by a telecommunication and no other journeys result) or a complementary effect (where the impact on total journeys is unclear, ie the person might chose to make another journey instead). Further, even if basic substitution were to occur, the extra capacity that results could be utilised for a separate journey by a third party. As with ITS, the overall impact of ICT will depend on how we use it, particularly what measures are implemented in parallel to ICT developments.

• •

5 Conclusions Overall, the literature review reveals differing predictions about the effects of new technologies on travel behaviour. The potential impacts can be grouped together in four broad headings: • • Developments that could encourage travel – In the longer term, alternatively-fuelled cars might compare favourably with conventional cars in terms of performance and could even become cheaper, both of which could encourage their wider use. Developments that might have a marginal impact on making travel more attractive – For example, improvements in the performance of vehicles, in particular cars, with


respect to emissions and noise might make the use of the vehicle, and therefore travel, more attractive for those who take into account environmental performance when making their travel decision. Improvements to in-vehicle comfort might have a similar impact, but these would all generally be expected to be of only second order importance and at most would reinforce trends which are already discernible. Developments that could enable changes to patterns of vehicle ownership and use – For example, developments in smart card technology can facilitate car sharing and more innovative use of public transport, while ICT could, at the most basic level, eliminate a journey altogether. Developments that have potentially complex impacts – On the one hand, increased use of ITS and ICT applications could be argued to reduce journey lengths or eliminate journeys, while on the other, it could be argued that they effectively make more efficient use of the transport network, thus increasing its capacity, which could in turn result in induced traffic. Hence, the positive impact on traffic levels of such developments could well be overstated. In relation to ICT applications, there is also the consideration of whether their use merely eliminates journeys, whether other journeys occur instead, or whether travel is actually encouraged.

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Watson, J. (2002). The development of large technical systems: implications for hydrogen, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 18. Pridmore, A. and Bristow, A., (2002). The role of hydrogen in powering road transport, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 19. Turnpenny, J. (2002). Reviewing organisational use of scenarios: Case study - evaluating UK energy policy options, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 20. Watson, W. J. (2002). Renewables and CHP Deployment in the UK to 2020, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 21. Watson, W.J., Hertin, J., Randall, T., Gough, C. (2002). Renewable Energy and Combined Heat and Power Resources in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 22. Paavola, J. and Adger, W.N. (2002). Justice and adaptation to climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 23. Xueguang Wu, Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. (2002). Impact of Integrating Renewables and CHP into the UK Transmission Network, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 24 Xueguang Wu, Mutale, J., Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. (2003). An investigation of Network Splitting for Fault Level Reduction, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 25 Brooks, N. and Adger W.N. (2003). Country level risk measures of climate-related natural disasters and implications for adaptation to climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 26

Tompkins, E.L. and Adger, W.N. (2003). Building resilience to climate change through adaptive management of natural resources, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 27 Dessai, S., Adger, W.N., Hulme, M., Köhler, J.H., Turnpenny, J. and Warren, R. (2003). Defining and experiencing dangerous climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 28 Brown, K. and Corbera, E. (2003). A Multi-Criteria Assessment Framework for Carbon-Mitigation Projects: Putting “development” in the centre of decision-making, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 29 Hulme, M. (2003). Abrupt climate change: can society cope?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 30 Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine A. and O’Riordan, T. A scoping study of UK user needs for managing climate futures. Part 1 of the pilot-phase interactive integrated assessment process (Aurion Project). Tyndall Centre Working Paper 31 Xueguang Wu, Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. (2003). Integrating Renewables and CHP into the UK Electricity System: Investigation of the impact of network faults on the stability of large offshore wind farms, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 32 Pridmore, A., Bristow, A.L., May, A. D. and Tight, M.R. (2003) Climate Change, Impacts, Future Scenarios and the Role of Transport, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 33 Dessai, S., Hulme, M (2003) Does climate policy need probabilities?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 34

Tompkins, E. L. and Hurlston, L. (2003) Report to the Cayman Islands’ Government. Adaptation lessons learned from responding to tropical cyclones by the Cayman Islands’ Government, 1988 – 2002, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 35 Kröger, K. Fergusson, M. and Skinner, I. (2003) Critical Issues in Decarbonising Transport: The Role of Technologies, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 36