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Electoral projections for the 2019 federal elections

Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2019


Final projections, October 20th 2019 tooclosetocall.ca
% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Atlantic 26.7 38.4 19.9 10.8 - 2.3
Quebec 14.4 33.0 12.8 5.7 31.1 2.2
Ontario 32.5 38.7 18.7 6.7 - 2.0
Prairies 48.6 21.3 21.9 4.9 - 2.3
Alberta 59.3 16.7 15.9 4.0 - 3.2
BC 31.8 27.3 24.6 12.9 - 2.3
Canada* 32.3 32.7 18.0 7.4 6.7 2.4

Seats/Sièges
Atlantic 7 20 5 0 0
Quebec 9 29 2 0 37 1
Ontario 40 65 16 0 0
Prairies 21 4 3 0 0
Alberta 34 0 0 0 0
BC 17 9 12 3 0 1
Territories 1 2 0 0 0

Canada 129 129 38 3 37 1 1

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.


Avalon 25% 45% 21% 10%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 19% 63% 10% 8%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 27% 56% 9% 8%
NFL

Labrador 23% 53% 17% 7%


Long Range Mountains 21% 55% 14% 10%
St. John's East 16% 33% 46% 5%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl 13% 39% 40% 8% 2%
Cardigan 26% 46% 14% 14%
Charlottetown 24% 37% 26% 13%
PEI
PEI Egmont 38% 30% 22% 10%
Malpeque 27% 43% 14% 17%
Cape Breton--Canso 24% 53% 11% 11% 2%
Central Nova 35% 40% 13% 12% 3%
Cumberland--Colchester 35% 45% 8% 11% 3%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 23% 39% 27% 11% 2%
Halifax 17% 33% 39% 11% 2%
NS

Halifax West 25% 49% 14% 11%


Kings--Hants 27% 53% 9% 11% 2%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 24% 29% 37% 10% 2%
South Shore--St. Margarets 31% 38% 20% 11% 3%
Sydney--Victoria 21% 52% 16% 11%
West Nova 35% 44% 9% 12% 3%
Acadie--Bathurst 17% 31% 42% 10% 0%
Beauséjour 20% 50% 18% 12% 2%
Fredericton 33% 30% 11% 26% 3%
Fundy Royal 46% 22% 21% 12% 3%
Madawaska--Restigouche 26% 36% 28% 9%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 43% 28% 18% 11% 3%


Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 30% 39% 19% 12% 2%
New Brunswick Southwest 47% 25% 15% 13% 3%
Saint John--Rothesay 39% 30% 20% 11% 3%
Tobique--Mactaquac 46% 28% 14% 13% 3%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 11% 31% 21% 6% 29% 2%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 8% 26% 26% 5% 32% 2%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 5% 45% 18% 6% 24% 2%
Alfred-Pellan 9% 44% 9% 6% 30% 2%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 12% 40% 10% 6% 30% 2%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 7% 36% 8% 4% 42% 2%
Beauce 26% 18% 0% 5% 19% 33%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
32% 23% 6% 5% 30% 3%
Beauport--Limoilou 24% 23% 13% 6% 31% 4%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 12% 20% 7% 5% 53% 2%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 48% 18% 0% 6% 24% 3%
Beloeil--Chambly 6% 26% 17% 6% 44% 2%
Berthier--Maskinongé 8% 12% 39% 0% 40% 2%
Bourassa 7% 54% 3% 6% 28% 2%
Brome--Missisquoi 12% 39% 9% 5% 32% 2%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 9% 47% 12% 5% 24% 2%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 35% 20% 8% 5% 28% 3%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 12% 35% 9% 5% 38% 2%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 42% 28% 4% 5% 19% 2%
Compton--Stanstead 13% 37% 12% 5% 31% 2%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 8% 49% 11% 6% 25% 2%
Drummond 18% 23% 14% 6% 38% 2%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 7% 35% 20% 4% 32% 2%
Gatineau 9% 50% 12% 5% 22% 2%
Hochelaga 4% 29% 19% 7% 39% 2%
Honoré-Mercier 9% 55% 5% 5% 24% 2%
Hull--Aylmer 9% 48% 17% 5% 19% 2%
Joliette 11% 26% 9% 6% 46% 2%
Jonquière 13% 22% 23% 5% 35% 2%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 5% 27% 15% 6% 44% 2%
La Prairie 9% 34% 11% 6% 39% 2%
Lac-Saint-Jean 32% 22% 5% 5% 34% 3%
Lac-Saint-Louis 13% 57% 3% 6% 19% 2%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 4% 39% 18% 6% 31% 2%
Laurentides--Labelle 11% 30% 9% 5% 42% 2%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 2% 28% 26% 7% 34% 3%
Laval--Les Îles 15% 47% 5% 5% 25% 2%
Lévis--Lotbinière 43% 19% 2% 5% 27% 4%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 7% 33% 12% 6% 40% 2%
QC

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 6% 28% 9% 15% 41% 2%


Louis-Hébert 12% 32% 13% 6% 34% 3%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 43% 18% 3% 5% 26% 4%
Manicouagan 12% 28% 2% 5% 51% 2%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 9% 40% 9% 6% 34% 2%
Mégantic--L'Érable 35% 25% 6% 5% 25% 3%
Mirabel 8% 25% 16% 6% 44% 2%
Montarville 8% 30% 12% 6% 41% 3%
Montcalm 7% 26% 9% 6% 50% 2%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
26% 24% 12% 5% 31% 3%
Mount Royal 31% 44% 1% 5% 18% 3%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 11% 52% 11% 6% 19% 2%
Outremont 7% 31% 28% 7% 25% 2%
Papineau 2% 51% 14% 7% 24% 2%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 7% 26% 12% 12% 41% 2%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 16% 52% 6% 5% 19% 2%
Pontiac 15% 51% 8% 5% 20% 2%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 37% 18% 10% 5% 27% 3%
Québec 12% 31% 15% 6% 34% 2%
Repentigny 9% 27% 9% 6% 48% 2%
Richmond--Arthabaska 32% 20% 9% 5% 31% 3%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
11% 25% 20% 5% 38% 2%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 8% 34% 15% 6% 35% 2%
Rivière-du-Nord 6% 25% 16% 6% 45% 2%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 2% 20% 37% 7% 32% 2%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 17% 24% 13% 6% 38% 2%
Saint-Jean 12% 31% 15% 6% 35% 2%
Saint-Laurent 15% 55% 2% 6% 20% 2%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 8% 63% 3% 5% 19% 2%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 16% 37% 6% 5% 34% 2%
Salaberry--Suroît 11% 26% 15% 5% 42% 2%
Shefford 13% 36% 8% 5% 36% 2%
Sherbrooke 7% 23% 33% 5% 32%
Terrebonne 9% 27% 11% 6% 45% 2%
Thérèse-De Blainville 10% 31% 10% 6% 39% 3%
Trois-Rivières 25% 24% 22% 1% 26% 3%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 11% 43% 10% 6% 28% 2%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 8% 46% 13% 8% 24% 2%
Vimy 11% 45% 6% 6% 29% 2%
Ajax 32% 50% 12% 4% 2%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 22% 28% 43% 6% 2%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 42% 35% 18% 4% 2%
Barrie--Innisfil 44% 31% 14% 9% 2%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 37% 31% 19% 11% 3%
Bay of Quinte 32% 45% 14% 7% 2%
Beaches--East York 16% 44% 32% 6% 2%
Brampton Centre 32% 43% 19% 4% 2%
Brampton East 22% 47% 27% 3% 2%
Brampton North 31% 43% 20% 4% 2%
Brampton South 33% 47% 14% 4% 2%
Brampton West 28% 51% 16% 4% 2%
Brantford--Brant 36% 27% 27% 7% 3%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 41% 34% 14% 9% 2%
Burlington 40% 43% 13% 3% 2%
Cambridge 36% 38% 16% 9% 2%
Carleton 48% 32% 12% 6% 2%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 41% 32% 21% 3% 2%
Davenport 10% 40% 42% 7% 2%
Don Valley East 28% 52% 12% 6% 2%
Don Valley North 37% 46% 10% 6% 2%
Don Valley West 31% 48% 13% 5% 2%
Dufferin--Caledon 38% 31% 20% 9% 2%
Durham 43% 29% 20% 6% 2%
Eglinton--Lawrence 41% 44% 8% 5% 2%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 47% 27% 18% 6% 2%
Essex 34% 16% 44% 5% 2%
Etobicoke Centre 36% 48% 9% 5% 2%
Etobicoke North 22% 58% 14% 5% 2%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 31% 49% 12% 6% 2%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 41% 34% 16% 8% 2%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 34% 47% 10% 7% 2%
Guelph 24% 43% 14% 17% 2%
Haldimand--Norfolk 45% 29% 17% 7% 2%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 42% 26% 21% 9% 2%
Hamilton Centre 13% 29% 46% 9% 3%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 23% 34% 35% 7% 2%
Hamilton Mountain 24% 28% 38% 7% 3%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 29% 42% 18% 9% 2%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 39% 36% 14% 8% 2%
Humber River--Black Creek 19% 62% 12% 5% 1%
Huron--Bruce 42% 33% 15% 8% 2%
Kanata--Carleton 36% 45% 9% 8% 2%
Kenora 26% 30% 37% 5% 2%
Kingston and the Islands 20% 49% 19% 10% 2%
King--Vaughan 42% 42% 10% 4% 2%
Kitchener Centre 28% 43% 18% 8% 3%
Kitchener South--Hespeler 34% 37% 17% 9% 3%
Kitchener--Conestoga 40% 37% 11% 8% 3%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 45% 26% 20% 7% 2%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 45% 28% 16% 9% 3%
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau44%
Lakes 35% 10% 9% 2%
London North Centre 29% 46% 17% 7% 2%
London West 33% 41% 17% 6% 3%
London--Fanshawe 27% 28% 37% 6% 2%
Markham--Stouffville 34% 36% 5% 4% 2% 19%
Markham--Thornhill 30% 50% 15% 4% 2%
Markham--Unionville 47% 37% 9% 5% 2%
Milton 43% 39% 10% 6% 3%
Mississauga Centre 31% 49% 13% 4% 2%
Ont.

Mississauga East--Cooksville 33% 49% 12% 4% 2%


Mississauga--Erin Mills 37% 44% 13% 4% 2%
Mississauga--Lakeshore 39% 42% 12% 4% 2%
Mississauga--Malton 24% 54% 16% 4% 2%
Mississauga--Streetsville 38% 43% 13% 4% 2%
Nepean 34% 46% 10% 8% 2%
Newmarket--Aurora 41% 40% 13% 5% 2%
Niagara Centre 28% 30% 34% 7% 2%
Niagara Falls 36% 30% 24% 7% 2%
Niagara West 47% 28% 14% 8% 4%
Nickel Belt 15% 37% 40% 6% 2%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 27% 46% 19% 6% 2%
Northumberland--Peterborough South 37% 37% 16% 8% 2%
Oakville 40% 43% 10% 5% 2%
Oakville North--Burlington 41% 41% 11% 5% 3%
Orléans 28% 54% 5% 12% 2%
Oshawa 36% 21% 36% 5% 2%
Ottawa Centre 15% 39% 35% 9% 2%
Ottawa South 22% 54% 14% 9% 2%
Ottawa West--Nepean 28% 50% 12% 9% 2%
Ottawa--Vanier 17% 51% 21% 9% 2%
Oxford 44% 28% 19% 7% 2%
Parkdale--High Park 12% 37% 41% 6% 3%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 39% 32% 17% 12%
Perth--Wellington 41% 32% 17% 8% 2%
Peterborough--Kawartha 33% 38% 20% 7% 2%
Pickering--Uxbridge 36% 44% 13% 5% 2%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 48% 30% 12% 8% 2%
Richmond Hill 41% 41% 12% 4% 2%
Sarnia--Lambton 36% 23% 33% 6% 2%
Sault Ste. Marie 29% 39% 24% 6% 2%
Scarborough Centre 27% 46% 16% 7% 5%
Scarborough North 26% 43% 24% 5% 2%
Scarborough Southwest 20% 47% 25% 6% 2%
Scarborough--Agincourt 37% 47% 9% 5% 2%
Scarborough--Guildwood 26% 55% 13% 5% 2%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 26% 55% 12% 6% 2%
Simcoe North 42% 34% 13% 10% 2%
Simcoe--Grey 44% 32% 12% 10% 2%
Spadina--Fort York 15% 50% 28% 6% 2%
St. Catharines 35% 38% 19% 7% 2%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 45% 34% 11% 8% 2%
Sudbury 19% 42% 30% 7% 2%
Thornhill 59% 29% 9% 3%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 19% 38% 32% 9% 2%
Thunder Bay--Superior North 15% 39% 26% 18% 2%
Timmins--James Bay 18% 28% 46% 6% 2%
Toronto Centre 12% 53% 28% 6%
Toronto--Danforth 9% 38% 43% 8% 2%
Toronto--St. Paul's 26% 50% 16% 7% 2%
University--Rosedale 17% 45% 30% 6% 2%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 42% 43% 8% 3% 3%
Waterloo 30% 44% 16% 8% 2%
Wellington--Halton Hills 48% 31% 10% 9% 2%
Whitby 40% 39% 15% 5% 2%
Willowdale 36% 48% 9% 6% 2%
Windsor West 19% 29% 45% 5% 2%
Windsor--Tecumseh 26% 30% 36% 5% 2%
York Centre 41% 45% 8% 5%
York South--Weston 18% 41% 31% 6% 4%
York--Simcoe 48% 31% 13% 6% 2%
Brandon--Souris 58% 22% 9% 8% 2%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
46% 31% 16% 5% 2%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 18% 27% 48% 4% 2%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 59% 16% 16% 6% 2%
Elmwood--Transcona 42% 10% 41% 5% 2%
Kildonan--St. Paul 47% 31% 17% 4% 2%
Portage--Lisgar 71% 11% 9% 6% 2%
Man.

Provencher 64% 20% 8% 6% 2%


Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 36% 37% 20% 5% 2%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 61% 17% 14% 6% 2%
Winnipeg Centre 18% 32% 41% 7% 2%
Winnipeg North 23% 48% 23% 5% 2%
Winnipeg South 41% 37% 15% 5% 2%
Winnipeg South Centre 35% 39% 19% 6% 2%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 68% 8% 19% 4% 2%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 72% 6% 15% 5% 3%
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 35% 25% 34% 4% 2%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek 69% 5% 19% 4% 2%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 60% 9% 24% 4% 2%
Prince Albert 55% 11% 29% 4% 2%
Regina--Lewvan 39% 18% 37% 4% 2%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 49% 13% 32% 5% 2%


Regina--Wascana 35% 45% 13% 4% 2%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 46% 16% 31% 4% 2%
Saskatoon--University 46% 15% 33% 4% 2%
Saskatoon West 37% 15% 41% 4% 2%
Souris--Moose Mountain 74% 4% 14% 4% 2%
Yorkton--Melville 64% 9% 21% 5% 2%
Banff--Airdrie 62% 20% 11% 5% 3%
Battle River--Crowfoot 77% 4% 11% 5% 3%
Bow River 77% 8% 10% 3% 3%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 45% 37% 10% 4% 3%
Calgary Confederation 46% 34% 12% 5% 3%
Calgary Forest Lawn 49% 27% 15% 5% 5%
Calgary Heritage 64% 17% 12% 4% 3%
Calgary Midnapore 66% 14% 13% 5% 3%
Calgary Nose Hill 60% 18% 14% 5% 4%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 60% 22% 11% 4% 3%
Calgary Shepard 66% 16% 12% 5% 3%
Calgary Signal Hill 60% 21% 10% 5% 4%
Calgary Skyview 42% 38% 13% 4% 3%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 36% 29% 28% 4% 3%
Edmonton Griesbach 41% 13% 38% 4% 4%
Edmonton Manning 47% 19% 27% 3% 3%
Edmonton Mill Woods 43% 33% 17% 4% 4%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 51% 22% 21% 3% 4%


Edmonton Strathcona 38% 18% 37% 4% 4%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 50% 26% 17% 3% 3%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 64% 15% 14% 3% 3%
Foothills 74% 8% 11% 4% 3%
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 59% 22% 12% 3% 4%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 71% 9% 12% 4% 4%
Lakeland 71% 8% 14% 3% 4%
Lethbridge 56% 13% 24% 4% 3%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 68% 12% 14% 4% 3%
Peace River--Westlock 67% 7% 18% 4% 4%
Red Deer--Mountain View 73% 8% 13% 4% 3%
Red Deer--Lacombe 69% 9% 15% 4% 3%
St. Albert--Edmonton 55% 20% 19% 3% 3%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 66% 12% 14% 4% 4%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 69% 10% 14% 4% 3%
Yellowhead 70% 8% 13% 4% 4%
Abbotsford 50% 24% 13% 11% 2%
Burnaby North--Seymour 34% 39% 15% 12%
Burnaby South 22% 18% 45% 7% 7%
Cariboo--Prince George 39% 23% 26% 9% 2%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 41% 29% 19% 10% 2%
Chilliwack--Hope 44% 25% 18% 10% 3%
Cloverdale--Langley City 38% 36% 15% 9% 2%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 35% 25% 27% 9% 4%
Courtenay--Alberni 33% 17% 35% 15%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 26% 19% 33% 20% 2%
Delta 36% 40% 14% 8% 2%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 21% 22% 32% 23% 2%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 32% 37% 21% 7% 2%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 37% 22% 30% 9% 2%
Kelowna--Lake Country 42% 37% 14% 6% 2%
Kootenay--Columbia 38% 11% 37% 12% 2%
Langley--Aldergrove 45% 29% 12% 10% 3%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 38% 28% 21% 11% 2%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 27% 13% 25% 33% 2%
New Westminster--Burnaby 23% 21% 43% 10% 5%
North Island--Powell River 30% 20% 37% 11% 2%
BC

North Okanagan--Shuswap 41% 21% 25% 11% 2%


BC North Vancouver 30% 48% 7% 14% 2%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 35% 24% 29% 9% 2%
Port Moody--Coquitlam 32% 22% 35% 8% 2%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
54% 16% 15% 11% 4%
Richmond Centre 47% 33% 10% 8% 2%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 23% 12% 7% 57% 2%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 28% 11% 49% 10% 2%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay 31% 20% 37% 10% 2%
South Surrey--White Rock 44% 35% 10% 9% 3%
Steveston--Richmond East 44% 36% 11% 9%
Surrey Centre 23% 36% 30% 9% 2%
Surrey--Newton 19% 47% 26% 7% 2%
Vancouver Centre 18% 49% 19% 11% 3%
Vancouver East 12% 23% 49% 15% 2%
Vancouver Granville 17% 27% 16% 8% 2% 31%
Vancouver Kingsway 22% 23% 44% 9% 3%
Vancouver Quadra 27% 52% 10% 10% 2%
Vancouver South 35% 42% 13% 8% 2%
Victoria 16% 22% 29% 31% 2%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky30%
Country46% 9% 14% 2%
Yukon 26% 42% 17% 11% 5%
Terr.

Northwest Territories 20% 36% 28% 11% 5%


Nunavut 35% 30% 25% 10%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.
** winning=getting the most seats