The effect of dredging off Great Yarmouth on the wave conditions and erosion of the North Norfolk coast

Mike Walkden and Peter Stansby December 2006

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Working Paper 97

The effect of dredging off Great Yarmouth on the wave conditions and erosion of the North Norfolk coast

Mike Walkden1 and Peter Stansby2

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Cassie Building, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research School of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering The University of Manchester, PO Box 88, Manchester M60 1QD Email: 1mike.walkden@ncl.ac.uk, 2p.k.stansby@manchester.ac.uk Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 97 December 2006
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Please note that Tyndall working papers are "work in progress". Whilst they are commented on by Tyndall researchers, they have not been subject to a full peer review. The accuracy of this work and the conclusions reached are the responsibility of the author(s) alone and not the Tyndall Centre.

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Summary A large scale hydrodynamic model and a regional coastal morphological model have been used to explore the relationship between coastal erosion in north Norfolk and seabed lowering due to dredging off Great Yarmouth. A scenario of extreme dredging was defined and used to modify the boundary conditions of the hydrodynamic model to reveal the sensitivity of nearshore waves. The modified waves were then used to drive the morphological model to predict the coastal erosion. The resulting shorelines were compared to predictions previously made with undredged bathymetry. No significant difference was found in the nearshore wave climate or the shoreline erosion due to the dredging scenario.

1 Introduction Erosion is a significant problem for some areas of the North Norfolk coast between Blakeney and Happisburgh and some coastal communities are concerned that this natural process may be enhanced by dredging of seabed gravel offshore of Great Yarmouth. The fear is that this artificial seabed lowering may allow larger waves to attack the coastal cliffs. The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research has explored the sensitivity of this coast to such seabed lowering using models developed to describe wave conditions and coastal evolution in the region over the 21st Century (Stansby et al, 2006, Dickson et al, in press). Before and after dredging the bathymetry was assumed to be static. This report describes the scenarios tested and the results of this model based investigation.

2 Seabed lowering under extreme dredging A dredge scenario involving the maximum feasible removal of seabed material was tested since this would be most likely to reveal any relationship between dredging and costal erosion. Dredging activities are licensed within specific adjoining areas off Great Yarmouth, as can be seen at: http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/43_active_area_charts_east_05_06_01.pdf) The volumes of material that will be removed from these areas is uncertain, and depends on factors such as the granting of licenses, restrictions imposed with those licenses, economic demand for aggregate and the quality of the resource found. A review of these factors was beyond the scope of this study, so the findings of a previous review (HR Wallingford 2004) have been used. HR Wallingford identified an extreme scenario under which 131 million tonnes of gravel would be removed from a 35km2 of area 401/2 resulting in a lowering of the seabed by 2.5 m. They point out that this represents approximately 7 times the volume that would be permitted under current proposals over 15 years. HR Wallingford further assumed that the maximum permitted quantity of material would be removed from the other license areas, plus a 10% margin of error. This results in an average increase in depth in these areas of from 0.05 to 1.23 m. In this study the maximum of that range (i.e. 1.23) was applied uniformly. This is a large overestimate of the volume removed, which was

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made for the sake of simplicity. It was also assumed that no siltation would occur after dredging. The dredging scenario adopted in this study is therefore lowering of the seabed by 2.5 m in areas 401/2 and by 1.23 m in other license areas, as illustrated in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Depth and extent of seabed lowering due to dredging in areas 401/2 (red, 2.5m) and other licence areas (green, -1.23m)

3 Wave modelling Wave propagation inshore is determined from the SWAN code (Booij et al. 2005) with a 200m mesh covering the region shown in Figure 1. A paper by Stansby et al, (2006) has shown the effectiveness of this method by comparing predicted inshore wave climate with field measurements with offshore wave climate determined from wind data. The grid coordinates of the nearshore positions are given in Table 1. Position X (m) Y (m) Depth at mid tide (m) 1 629050 343922 18.19 2 633165 341179 18.22 3 636271 336594 17.98 4 642354 331447 18.08 Table 1. Coordinates of nearshore wave points Various offshore wave conditions have been chosen with a representative condition with a significant wave height Hs of 3m and period Ts of 6s with directions of S, SSE,

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SE and ESE. Mid tide level was assumed. Conditions with values of Hs =3m and Ts =10s and Hs =6m and Ts =10s have also been tested from the predominant Southerly and the SE directions. The resulting inshore wave heights and the ratio of values after dredging to values without dredging are shown in Appendix 1. It is noted that changes due to the ESE direction are minimal and for waves from the East to North will be less These results show that the influence on dredging on inshore wave height, period and direction is less than 1% which is within the prediction error of this approach. This is not altogether surprising as the bed level reductions are in depths of 20-30m and the dredging site is 60km from the coastal region of concern.

4 Cliff erosion modelling Tyndall uses a SCAPE model to describe the evolution of the North Norfolk coast. SCAPE, which is described in detail by Walkden & Hall (2005), models a rock shore profile (platform and cliff) with an overlying beach. It can be used to simulate a quasi3D coast by assembling a series of profiles alongshore and allowing them to interact. The Norfolk model sections are shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Map showing the shore model profile locations Future coastal erosion depends on many factors that can not be precisely known in advance, such as coastal management decisions and climate change. Consequently predictions are often made under different scenarios, which are used to explore the range of possible future conditions. The Tyndall Coastal Programme has modelled future erosion under 45 such scenarios, each of which include an unchanging seabed (i.e. they assume that no future dredging will occur).

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In this study four of these scenarios have been rerun, using the new inshore wave conditions described in the previous section, which were modelled under the assumption that extreme dredging will occur. The four scenarios that were selected for retesting are shown in Table 2.
D1 D2 D3 Maintain existing defences Managed retreat 1 Managed retreat 2 (71% of cliffed coast defended) (34% of cliffed coast defended) (16% of cliffed coast defended)

by 2030 structures removed from small towns

by 2030 structures removed from larger towns/industry (i.e. Overstrand, Mundesley, Bacton Gas Terminal)

D4

Remove defences

(0% of cliffed coast defended)

Table 2. Four scenarios of coastal management These scenarios describe a range of coastal management policies, but not climatic change to avoid confusion between climatic and potential dredging effects. It was decided not to test a scenario under which structures were built in new locations as this was deemed unrealistic. The erosion under the four ‘dredged’ scenarios are compared to the equivalent ‘undredged’ predictions in figures 3 to 6. In each figure the total recession predicted over the 21st Century is shown with the difference between the dredged and undredged simulations. Here positive values indicate more recession under the dredging scenario, and negative values indicate less recession.
150 ) m ( n o i s s e c e r l a t o T Undredged Dredged

100

50

0 15

20

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35

40

45

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) m ( e c n e r e f f i d n o i s s e c e R

20 10 0 -10 -20 15

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25 30 35 40 Distance from Winterton Ness (km)

45

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Figure 3. Recession predicted under scenario D1

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150 ) m ( n o i s s e c e r l a t o T Undredged Dredged

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) m ( e c n e r e f f i d n o i s s e c e R

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Figure 4. Recession predicted under scenario D2
150 ) m ( n o i s s e c e r l a t o T Undredged Dredged

100

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) m ( e c n e r e f f i d n o i s s e c e R

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Figure 5. Recession predicted under scenario D3

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150 ) m ( n o i s s e c e r l a t o T Undredged Dredged

100

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0 15

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) m ( e c n e r e f f i d n o i s s e c e R

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Figure 6. Recession predicted under scenario D4 The results do not show a relationship between dredging and increased recession rates. Scenarios D1 and D2 show no net difference in recession distance, whilst D3 shows an average increase in recession and D4 an average decrease. These results are unsurprising given the very small changes in the input wave conditions. The observed changes in output result from feedback driven amplification and would be expected from any small differences in wave input.

5 Conclusions The effects of extreme dredging on wave conditions and cliff erosion between Happisburgh and Blakeney have been explored with model simulations. Effects on wave conditions were found to be very small and were no larger than the error margin inherent in the modelling process. Given this the subsequent modelling of cliff evolution was not strictly justified. Nevertheless the models were run and minor fluctuations in cliff recession were observed, both positive and negative. No link was found between seabed lowering in the dredged area and increased cliff recession was found.

References HR Wallingford (2004) Area 401/2 Dredging Licence Extension Coastal Impact Study. Report EX 5030 Dickson, M.E., Walkden, M.J. and Hall, J.W. (in press) Systemic Impacts of Climate Change on an Eroding Coastal Region over the 21st Century. Climatic Change Booij, N., Haagsma, I.J.G., Holthuijsen, L.H., Kieftenburg, A.T.M.M., Ris, R.C., van der Westhuysen, A.J. and Zijlema,M. 2004-5 SWAN Cycle III version 40.41 User Manual, Delft University of Technology.

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Stansby, P.K., Zhou, J., Kuang, C., Walkden, M., Hall, J., Dickson, M., (2006) Long term prediction of nearshore wave climate with an application to cliff erosion. Proc. 30th Int. Conf. on Coastal Engineering, San Diego, USA.

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Appendix 1 Table 1 Inshore wave climate with and without dredging for different offshore wave climates Offshore wave climate Hs (m) Ts (s) θo 3 6 90 (S) Inshore wave climate position Hs(m) 1 0.630 2 0.689 3 0.652 4 0.733 1 0.629 2 0.689 3 0.651 4 0.744 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 dredged 3 10 135 (SE) 1 2 3 9 0.488 0.568 0.611 0.716 0.489 0.569 0.611 0.718 0.905 1.063 1.158 1.364 0.906 1.065 1.160 1.367 1.202 1.314 1.385 1.525 1.202 1.313 1.384 1.524 0.763 0.861 0.938 Ts (s) 4.82 4.81 4.86 4.74 4.82 4.81 4.86 4.75 7.13 7.44 7.93 8.10 7.14 7.44 7.94 8.11 7.43 7.67 8.12 8.24 7.44 7.68 8.13 8.25 4.50 4.59 4.60 4.62 4.50 4.60 4.60 4.62 5.78 6.06 6.28 θo 154.5 149.2 152.4 148.4 154.5 149.2 152.3 148.4 169.2 167.3 170.7 170.6 169.2 167.3 170.7 170.7 169.1 166.6 170.0 169.4 169.2 166.6 169.9 169.4 157.4 154.3 158.6 157.7 157.4 154.3 158.6 157.7 165.4 163.6 167.1

dredged

original

3

6

90 (S)

dredged

3

10

90 (S)

original

3

10

90

(S)

dredged

6

10

90

(S)

original

6

10

90

(S)

dredged

3

6

135 (SE)

original

3

6

135 (SE)

original

3

10

135 (SE)

4 1 2 3 4

1.085 0.761 0.859 0.935 1.083 1.252 1.43 1.566 1.801 1.249 1.422 1.563 1.800 1.246 1.361 1.506 1.677 1.246 1.360 1.504 1.676 0.976 1.066 1.063 1.171 0.975 1.065 1.062 1.170

6.58 5.79 6.07 6.28 6.58 5.82 6.02 6.29 6.56 5.83 6.03 6.30 5.57 4.45 4.59 4.58 4.64 4.45 4.59 4.58 4.63 4.56 4.61 4.63 4.61 4.56 4.61 4.63 4.61

168.4 165.4 163.7 167.1 168.4 164.2 161.5 165.4 165.9 164.2 161.5 165.3 165.9 160.4 158.3 162.5 163.7 160.4 158.3 162.4 163.7 154.9 150.8 154.7 151.9 154.9 150.8 154.7 151.9

dredged

6

10

135 (SE)

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

original

6

10

135 (SE)

dredged

3

6

157.5 (ESE)

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

original

3

6

157.5 (ESE)

dredged

3

6

112.5 (SSE)

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

original

3

6

112.5 (SSE)

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Table 2 Dredged inshore wave climate as ratio of original for different offshore wave climates Offshore wave climate Hs (m) Ts (s) θo 3 6 90 (S) Inshore: ratio of dredged to original values Position Hs(m) Ts (s) θo 1 1.0006 0.9992 1.000 2 1.0006 0.9995 1.000 3 1.0017 0.9994 1.000 4 0.9854 0.9993 1.000 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 3 6 112.5 (SSE) 1 2 3 4 0.9985 0.9982 0.9991 0.9978 0.9987 0.9983 0.9988 0.9977 1.0006 1.0008 1.0010 1.0006 0.9900 1.0029 1.0031 1.0014 1.0027 1.0024 1.0020 1.0015 1.0007 1.0010 1.0012 1.0028 1.0006 1.0007 1.0011 1.0008 0.9992 0.9991 0.9990 0.9987 0.9989 0.9989 1.0045 0.9986 0.9992 0.9993 0.9999 0.9999 0.9981 0.9981 0.9991 0.9989 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9985 0.9991 0.9990 1.000 1.000 0.9992 0.9995 0.9997 0.9997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.9997 0.9998 1.0002 1.0000 0.9999 1.0000 1.0003 1.0000 1.0000 1.0001 1.0003 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0003 1.0000

3

10

90 (S)

6

10

90

(S)

3

6

135 (SE)

3

10

135 (SE)

6

10

135 (SE)

3

6

157.5 (ESE)

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Tyndall Working Paper series 2000 - 2006
The Tyndall Centre working paper series presents results from research which are mature enough to be submitted to a refereed journal, to a sponsor, to a major conference or to the editor of a book. The intention is to enhance the early public availability of research undertaken by the Tyndall family of researchers, students and visitors. They can be downloaded from the Tyndall Website at: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/working_papers.shtml The accuracy of working papers and the conclusions reached are the responsibility of the author(s) alone and not the Tyndall Centre.

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• Anthoff, D., Nicholls R., Tol R S J, Vafeidis, A., (2006) Global and regional exposure to large rises in sea-level: a sensitivity analysis. This work was prepared for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change: Tyndall Working Paper 96 • Few R., Brown K, Tompkins E. L, (2006) Public participation and climate change adaptation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 95 • Corbera E., Kosoy N, Martinez Tuna M, (2006) Marketing ecosystem services through protected areas and rural communities in Meso-America: Implications for economic efficiency, equity and political legitimacy, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 94 • Schipper E. Lisa, (2006) Climate Risk, Perceptions and Development in El Salvador, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 93 • Tompkins E. L, Amundsen H, (2005) Perceptions of the effectiveness of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in prompting behavioural change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 92 • Warren R., Hope C, Mastrandrea M, Tol R S J, Adger W. N., Lorenzoni I., (2006) Spotlighting the impacts functions in integrated assessments. Research Report Prepared for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 91

• Warren R., Arnell A, Nicholls R., Levy P E, Price J, (2006) Understanding the regional impacts of climate change: Research Report Prepared for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 90 • Barker T., Qureshi M, Kohler J., (2006) The Costs of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation with Induced Technological Change: A Meta-Analysis of Estimates in the Literature, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 89 • Kuang C, Stansby P, (2006) Sandbanks for coastal protection: implications of sea-level rise. Part 3: wave modelling, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 88 • Kuang C, Stansby P, (2006) Sandbanks for coastal protection: implications of sea-level rise. Part 2: current and morphological modelling, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 87 • Stansby P, Kuang C, Laurence D, Launder B, (2006) Sandbanks for coastal protection: implications of sea-level rise. Part 1: application to East Anglia, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 86 • Bentham M, (2006) An assessment of carbon sequestration potential in the UK – Southern North Sea case study: Tyndall Centre Working Paper 85 • Anderson K., Bows A., Upham P., (2006) Growth scenarios for EU & UK aviation: contradictions with climate policy, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 84

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• Williamson M., Lenton T., Shepherd J., Edwards N, (2006) An efficient numerical terrestrial scheme (ENTS) for fast earth system modelling, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 83 • Bows, A., and Anderson, K. (2005) An analysis of a post-Kyoto climate policy model, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 82 • Sorrell, S., (2005) The economics of energy service contracts, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 81 • Wittneben, B., Haxeltine, A., Kjellen, B., Köhler, J., Turnpenny, J., and Warren, R., (2005) A framework for assessing the political economy of post-2012 global climate regime, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 80 • Ingham, I., Ma, J., and Ulph, A. M. (2005) Can adaptation and mitigation be complements?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 79 • Agnolucci,. P (2005) Opportunism and competition in the non-fossil fuel obligation market, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 78 • Barker, T., Pan, H., Köhler, J., Warren., R and Winne, S. (2005) Avoiding dangerous climate change by inducing technological progress: scenarios using a large-scale econometric model, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 77 • Agnolucci,. P (2005) The role of political uncertainty in the Danish renewable energy market, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 76 • Fu, G., Hall, J. W. and Lawry, J. (2005) Beyond probability: new methods for representing uncertainty in projections of future climate, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 75 • Ingham, I., Ma, J., and Ulph, A. M. (2005) How do the costs of adaptation affect optimal mitigation when there is uncertainty, irreversibility and learning?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 74 • Walkden, M. (2005) Coastal process simulator scoping study, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 73 • Lowe, T., Brown, K., Suraje Dessai, S., Doria, M., Haynes, K. and Vincent., K (2005)
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• Few, R., Brown, K. and Tompkins, E.L. (2004) Scaling adaptation: climate change response and coastal management in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 60 • Anderson, D and Winne, S. (2004) Modelling Innovation and Threshold Effects In Climate Change Mitigation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 59 • Bray, D and Shackley, S. (2004) The Social Simulation of The Public Perceptions of Weather Events and their Effect upon the Development of Belief in Anthropogenic Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 58 • Shackley, S., Reiche, A. and Mander, S Public Perceptions of (2004) The Underground Coal Gasification (UCG): A Pilot Study, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 57 • Vincent, K. (2004) Creating an index of social vulnerability to climate change for Africa, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 56 • Mitchell, T.D. Carter, T.R., Jones, .P.D, Hulme, M. and New, M. (2004) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100), Tyndall Centre Working Paper 55 • Turnpenny, J., Carney, S., Haxeltine, A., and O’Riordan, T. (2004) Developing regional and local scenarios for climate change mitigation and adaptation Part 1: A framing of the East of England Tyndall Centre Working Paper 54 • Agnolucci, P. and Ekins, P. (2004) The Announcement Effect And Environmental Taxation Tyndall Centre Working Paper 53 • Agnolucci, P. (2004) Ex Post Evaluations of CO2 –Based Taxes: A Survey Tyndall Centre Working Paper 52 • Agnolucci, P., Barker, T. and Ekins, P. (2004) Hysteresis and Energy Demand: the Announcement Effects and the effects of the UK Climate Change Levy Tyndall Centre Working Paper 51 • Powell, J.C., Peters, M.D., Ruddell, A. and Halliday, J. (2004) Fuel Cells for a Sustainable Future? Tyndall Centre Working Paper 50
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• Awerbuch, S. (2004) Restructuring our electricity networks to promote decarbonisation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 49 • Pan, H. (2004) The evolution of economic structure under technological development, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 48 • Berkhout, F., Hertin, J. and Gann, D. M., (2004) Learning to adapt: Organisational adaptation to climate change impacts, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 47 • Watson, J., Tetteh, A., Dutton, G., Bristow, A., Kelly, C., Page, M. and Pridmore, A., (2004) UK Hydrogen Futures to 2050, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 46 • Purdy, R and Macrory, R. (2004) Geological carbon sequestration: critical legal issues, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 45 • Shackley, S., McLachlan, C. and Gough, C. (2004) The Public Perceptions of Carbon Capture and Storage, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 44 • Anderson, D. and Winne, S. (2003) Innovation and Threshold Effects in Technology Responses to Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 43 • Kim, J. (2003) Sustainable Development and the CDM: A South African Case Study, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 42 • Watson, J. (2003), UK Electricity Scenarios for 2050, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 41 Klein, R.J.T., Lisa Schipper, E. and Dessai, • S. (2003), Integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate and development policy: three research questions, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 40 Tompkins, E. and Adger, W.N. (2003). • Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 39 Brooks, N. (2003). Vulnerability, risk • and adaptation: a conceptual framework, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 38 Ingham, A. and Ulph, A. (2003) • Uncertainty, Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost of Carbon, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 37
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Kröger, K. Fergusson, M. and Skinner, I. • (2003). Critical Issues in Decarbonising Transport: The Role of Technologies, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 36 Tompkins E. L and Hurlston, L. (2003). • Report to the Cayman Islands’ Government. Adaptation lessons learned from responding to tropical cyclones by the Cayman Islands’ Government, 1988 – 2002, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 35 Dessai, S., Hulme, M (2003). Does • climate policy need probabilities?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 34 • Pridmore, A., Bristow, A.L., May, A. D. and Tight, M.R. (2003). Climate Change, Impacts, Future Scenarios and the Role of Transport, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 33 Xueguang Wu, Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. • (2003). Integrating Renewables and CHP into the UK Electricity System: Investigation of the impact of network faults on the stability of large offshore wind farms, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 32 Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine A. and O’Riordan, • T. (2003). A scoping study of UK user needs for managing climate futures. Part 1 of the pilot-phase interactive integrated assessment process (Aurion Project), Tyndall Centre Working Paper 31 Hulme, M. (2003). Abrupt climate • change: can society cope?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 30 Brown, K. and Corbera, E. (2003). A • Multi-Criteria Assessment Framework for Carbon-Mitigation Projects: Putting “development” in the centre of decisionmaking, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 29 Dessai, S., Adger, W.N., Hulme, M., • Köhler, J.H., Turnpenny, J. and Warren, R. (2003). Defining and experiencing dangerous climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 28 Tompkins, E.L. and Adger, W.N. (2003). • Building resilience to climate change through adaptive management of natural resources, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 27 Brooks, N. and Adger W.N. (2003). • Country level risk measures of climaterelated natural disasters and implications
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for adaptation to climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 26 Xueguang Wu, Mutale, J., Jenkins, N. and • Strbac, G. (2003). An investigation of Network Splitting for Fault Level Reduction, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 25 Xueguang Wu, Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. • (2002). Impact of Integrating Renewables and CHP into the UK Transmission Network, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 24 Paavola, J. and Adger, W.N. (2002). • Justice and adaptation to climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 23 Watson, W.J., Hertin, J., Randall, T., • Gough, C. (2002). Renewable Energy and Combined Heat and Power Resources in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 22 Watson, W. J. (2002). Renewables and • CHP Deployment in the UK to 2020, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 21 Turnpenny, J. (2002). Reviewing • organisational use of scenarios: Case study - evaluating UK energy policy options, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 20 Pridmore, A. and Bristow, A., (2002). The • role of hydrogen in powering road transport, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 19 Watson, J. (2002). The development of • large technical systems: implications for hydrogen, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 18 Dutton, G., (2002). Hydrogen Energy • Technology, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 17 Adger, W.N., Huq, S., Brown, K., Conway, • D. and Hulme, M. (2002). Adaptation to climate change: Setting the Agenda for Development Policy and Research, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 16 Köhler, J.H., (2002). Long run technical • change in an energy-environment-economy (E3) model for an IA system: A model of Kondratiev waves, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 15 Shackley, S. and Gough, C., (2002). The • Use of Integrated Assessment: An Institutional Analysis Perspective, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 14 Dewick, P., Green K., Miozzo, M., (2002). • Technological Change, Industry Structure
2000 - 2006

and the Environment, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 13 Dessai, S., (2001). The climate regime • from The Hague to Marrakech: Saving or sinking the Kyoto Protocol?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 12 Barker, T. (2001). Representing the • Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Adaptation and Mitigation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 11 Gough, C., Taylor, I. and Shackley, S. • (2001). Burying Carbon under the Sea: An Initial Exploration of Public Opinions, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 10 Barnett, J. and Adger, W. N. (2001). • Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 9 Adger, W. N. (2001). Social Capital and • Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 8 Barnett, J. (2001). Security and Climate • Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 7 Goodess, C.M., Hulme, M. and Osborn, T. • (2001). The identification and evaluation of suitable scenario development methods for the estimation of future probabilities of

extreme weather Working Paper 6

events,

Tyndall

Centre

Barnett, J. (2001). The issue of 'Adverse • Effects and the Impacts of Response Measures' in the UNFCCC, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 5 Barker, T. and Ekins, P. (2001). How High • are the Costs of Kyoto for the US Economy?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 4 Berkhout, F, Hertin, J. and Jordan, A. J. • (2001). Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as 'learning machines', Tyndall Centre Working Paper 3 Hulme, M. (2001). Integrated • Assessment Models, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 2 Mitchell, T. and Hulme, M. (2000). A • Country-by-Country Analysis of Past and Future Warming Rates, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 1
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For further information please contact Javier Delgado-Esteban

Tyndall Working Papers

2000 - 2006