By Systems Assessment Group NDIA Strike, Land Attack and Air Defense Committee

October 1998

By Systems Assessment Group NDIA Strike, Land Attack and Air Defense Committee

October 1998

3

Agenda
Page • • • • • • Introduction Historical Developments and Technology Migration Trends in Third World Ballistic Missile Weaponry Threat Development on a Compressed Schedule Candidate LRBM Configurations Summary 5 13 43 63 81 107

10/1/98

5

Study Objectives
• Assess feasibility of Third World countries to develop/acquire LRBM capability
• 3000km - 10000km

Assess the time required to develop/acquire LRBM capability
• • • One or two demonstrated test articles Politically effective capability (as few as three missiles) Fully deployed military capability

• •

Assess the feasibility of launching warheads of mass destruction Assess implications on defense
• Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) policy

10/1/98

7

Study Approach
• Review lessons learned from historical missile development programs
• • • WW II Germany, North Korea, Iraq Development time and motivation Strategic objectives for LRBMs with WMD warheads

Assess potential range growth of evolving family of Third World TBM threats Conduct Third World Threat Analysis
• • Technology assessment Development forecast

Assess Candidate LRBM Configuration Alternatives
• • Space launch vehicle conversion TBM stacking / clustering
9

10/1/98

500 km >5.000 km 1.500 km 3.000 km RANGE NOT SPECIFIED RANGE NOT SPECIFIED <3.000 km LIMITED PERFORMANCE & NUMBERS OF TBMs & CMs (EUROPEAN THEATER) BILATERAL US-RUSSIAN NUCLEAR FORCES REDUCTION BILATERAL US-RUSSIAN NUCLEAR FORCES REDUCTION 11 LRBM CM SLBM LRCM INF TREATY START SALT 10/1/98 .000 .000 km 3.10.5.Definitions TERM TBM SRBM MRBM IRBM ICBM DESCRIPTION TACTICAL BALLISTIC MISSILE SHORT RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILE MEDIUM RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILE INTERMEDIATE RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILE INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE LONG RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILE CRUISE MISSILE SUBMARINE LAUNCHED BALLISTIC MISSILE LONG RANGE CRUISE MISSILE INTERMEDIATE RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES TREATY STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TREATY STRATEGIC ARMS LIMITATION TALKS CRITERIA <150 km Up to 1.000 .3.000 .

Agenda Page • • • • • • Introduction Historical Developments and Technology Migration Trends in Third World Ballistic Missile Weaponry Threat Development on a Compressed Schedule Candidate LRBM Configurations Summary 5 13 43 63 81 107 10/1/98 13 .

Historical Analysis Objectives • Understand the critical event structure & timelines of early ballistic missile development programs Describe technologies required to meet mission requirements in early missile programs Describe innovative solutions that enabled early rapid ballistic missile development Describe the spread of ballistic missile capability over the past 50 years tracing its technology and system development genealogy • • • 10/1/98 15 .

• WW II Germany • North Korea • Iraq 17 .

first large “black” program Suppression of German amateur rocket societies for security reasons (1933-34) National priority / significant funding resources available Excellent domestic industrial skill base to develop required technologies Rapid prototyping using technology demonstrators • Test / Fail / Fix / Re-Test / …….Key Ingredients of the German Program • Political/Cultural Climate • • • • • Rocket development not constrained by Versailles treaty Autocratic rule Warring factions within the Nazi party for control of ballistic missile program 1920’s Weimar Republic had strong interest in rocketry and space flight Use of slave labor Early recognition of the value of ballistic missiles for maximizing surprise (1929) Extreme secrecy of the program . • Technological and Strategic Surprise • • • • Speed of Development • • • Many of these key ingredients are found in Third World programs Many of these key ingredients are found in Third World programs 10/1/98 19 .

J. Mercado.German ICBM Design A9/A10 10/1/98 Manned A9 21 Source: “Secret Wonder Weapons of the Third Reich”. Miranda. P. 1996 . Schiffer Military/Aviation History.

Phillip Henshall. Hitler’s Nuclear Weapon.Design for Use of Chemical/Radiological Payloads Payload Compartment 10/1/98 Source: “Vengeance.. Fact or Fiction?”. 1995 23 .Alan Sutton Publishing Ltd.

1996 25 . Mercado. Miranda. Schiffer Military/Aviation History. J.Alternative Concept for Attacking North America Project Lifevest 10/1/98 Source: “Secret Wonder Weapons of the Third Reich”. P.

• WW II Germany • North Korea • Iraq 27 .

North Korean Ballistic Missile Programs • 1975 ~ DF-61 Program with China Terminated • 1981 ~ Egypt Supplies Scud-B Missiles for Evaluation • 1984 ~ Scud-B Mod A Tested • 1985 ~ Scud-B Mod B Tested • 1987 ~ Scud-B Mod B Exported to Iran • 1989 ~ Scud-B Mod C Deployed • 1990 ~ Nodong-1 Program Underway • 1993 ~ Nodong-1 Tested • 1995 ~ Taepo Dong 1 and Taepo Dong 2 Programs Underway • 1996 ~ Nodong-1 Exported to Iran • 1998 ~ Nodong Technology Incorporated in Pakistani Ghauri • 1998 ~ Potential Space Launch/LRBM Capability Demonstrated 29 .

• WW II Germany • North Korea • Iraq 31 .

Iraq announces Al Hamid ballistic missile (150 km range) 33 .Tammuz 1 SLV announced (2.First Iraqi Scud-B attack on Iran • 3 August 1987 -.Total of 361 Scud-B and Al Husayn missiles fired in Iran-Iraq war • 5 December 1989 -.Desert Storm saw 88 Al Husayns fired • 1997 -.Al Abbas missile fired on Tehran (860 km) • 1980-1988 -.189 Al Husayn missiles fired in “war of the cities” • 25 April 1988 -.000 km range) • 1991-.Al Husayn tested (500 km range) • February .Successful launch of Al Abid SLV • 7 December 1989 -.April 1988 -.Iraqi Ballistic Missile Programs • 1970s -.Iraq receives first Scud-B ballistic missiles from USSR (813 imported by 1990) • 1982 -.

Scout Solid Rocket Technology USSR USSR • R-17 (SCUD B SRBM) CIS Iraq • Funding for Condor 2 MRBM • Badr 2 MRBM (Based on Condor 2) • Vector IRBM (Terminated) Germany FRG FRG • Personnel • Technology Argentina Egypt • SS-1B (SCUD B SRBM) • R-17 (SCUD B) • V-2 (A-4 SRBM) • Personnel (Von Braun & team) • Technology • R-17 • • T Per (SCUD B) so ec h n nn o l el og y • R-1 (V-2 copy) • R-2 (SS-2 SRBM) • Technology North Korea • Funding • SCUD B • SCUD B • SCUD C Production • SCUD C (Transshipped) Iran Syria Libya • DF-3 (CSS-2 IRBM) Peoples Republic of China • People (H.Genealogy of Technology Transfer After WWII 1940 • V-2 (A-4 SRBM) • Personnel • Technology • Facilities 1950 1960 1970 1980 India 1990 2000 • SA-2 SAM (Back Engr to SRBM) • U.S.S. Tsien Deported) South Afr • Jericho 2 / RSA-3 Saudi Arabia Israel • People/Technology France • Technology 10/1/98 United States 35 .

IL . Laurance. TW .SU Materials Manufacture US CA.LY KP. LI . or orders (unless clear transfers have resulted). BR. CH. JP HK.Norway. US Syria Trained Personnel/Advisors NL. SU CL. DE .Israel. JP DE. LI. LY. CH.Hong Kong. It is a compilation of open source material and covers only reports of actual deliveries and transfers since 1989. CN DE FR. The table does not include information relating to proposals. US SU CN CL Technology Suppliers Ballistic missile Propulsion CN. ES .Libya. BE. IT. NO . GB. CH. US . KP SA. William C.Saudi Arabia. CH. KP CN. ZA . US DE MR Notes: (1) This information was extracted from the International ballistic missile Proliferation Project database. LI. CS . IT. EG. CN . TW US BR. DE. DE HK. compiled by the Monterey Institute of International studies under the direction of Dr.Belgium. DE.North Korea. US BR.Italy. AT. CN. CH.Spain. EG. offers. MC . IT . GB . GB US Computers Testing/Ranges ZA US SA.Argentina. CH. DE NL. CH. BE . CN Guidance/Navigation Flight Controls Production Assistance ZA.Canada. JP . US AT. IR. FR.Germany.Egypt. DE. DE. Potter and Dr. SA. US AT.Iran. NL . US AR.Brazil. US CN KP DE Reentry Vehicles DE. CH. PK . CL. AT. CL . SU IL. US AR. MC.Liechtenstein. (2) The two-letter codes used in this table are the American National Standard Institute (ANSI) international country codes. GB. IR . SA .Switzerland. IT LY. US NO.Pakistan. SU. AT Australia. FR. negotiations. DE. SU . FR. HK . DE. DE.Mauritania. KP.Czechoslovakia. 10/1/98 37 . FR.International Technology Transfer Technology Recipients Israel India Egypt Iraq Pakistan Iran Libya Saudi Arabia DE. Edward J.United Kingdom. EG. BE. DE. EG .China. CA . CN. FR.Soviet Union. US AR. ES. SU DE. FR. KP . BE.Netherlands. US DE CS. LY .South Africa. US. KP CS.Chile. MR . PK. CN KP.United States. CH . LI. defined as follows: AR . US. FR France.Japan. BR .Taiwan.Monaco.

conventional or NBC NOT intended to impede national space programs or int’l cooperation in such programs • Restricted technologies include • Complete ballistic missile/cruise missile/UAV systems and some subsystems • Production facilities 10/1/98 39 .Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) • Missile technology non-proliferation partnership formed in 1987 as a voluntary agreement between members • United States and G-7 partners were original members • Current membership totals 29 countries • Objective is to restrict proliferation of ballistic missiles. and related technologies • • • • Applies to systems carrying payloads of 500 kg or greater System ranges of 300 km or greater Includes all warhead categories -. UAVs. cruise missiles.

There are not even restraints on the following: • Transfer of missiles and components from non-signatory states (e. North Korea and China) • Emigration of scientists.g.. Its signers agree to exercise “restraint”. engineers and technicians • Technical education in sciences and engineering which provides missile skills 10/1/98 41 .What MTCR Doesn’t Control • MCTR does not “control” anything.

Agenda Page • • • • • • Introduction Historical Developments and Technology Migration Trends in Third World Ballistic Missile Weaponry Threat Development on a Compressed Schedule Candidate LRBM Configurations Summary 5 13 43 63 81 107 10/1/98 43 .

Third World Countries with Ballistic Missiles * 3000 km Syria Libya Israel Iraq Iran Saudi Arabia N. Korea 3000 km China India Taiwan Vietnam Egypt Yemen Pakistan Brazil South Africa Argentina * Greater than 90 km range 45 10/1/98 .

Third World Weapons Options Favor Missiles Country Ballistic Missiles Cruise Missiles Aircraft Ground Systems Rocket Launcher Naval Systems Helicopters SRBM’s 1 Bombers Fighters LRBM’s Surface Tactical Ground Artillery Mortar Expected Mission Success Yes X X X X X X X X 2 X X X X X X X Limited X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X No X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X No X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X No X X X China India Iraq Iran Israel Libya North Korea Pakistan 10/1/98 X X X X 47 1 500 km range or less 2 Currently banned under UN Gulf War resolutions SSN’s SSK’s Sea Air .

June 1992 10/1/98 49 .Third World Indigenous Capabilities Israel Human Resources India Egypt Iraq Pakistan Iran Libya Saudi Arabia Syria Ballistic missiles Space Technical Resources Artillery Ordnance Aircraft Electronics Test Resources Substantial capability: • Large numbers of experts and technicians • Indigenous manufacturing • Instrumented test ranges Modest capability: • Some experts and technicians • Spare parts manufacturing • Component test/ground test Rudimentary capability: • Few experts or technicians • Repair and refurbishment • Limited test facilities Reference: “Rest of World (ROW) Response to GPALS: Technology and Industry Bases”. Strategic Defense Initiative Organization.

000 Iran Shihab 3 Shihab 4 Shihab 5 Labour 1 (No Dong 1 import) Labour 2 (No Dong 2 joint effort) L In Dev.700 1500 2000 2150 2200 3200 600 2000 700 800 1000 1000 750 1000 Range (km) 1250 2650 2800 4750 13000 1800 1700 8000 12000 >2000 3000 1700 3000 3000+ India 16.000 64.Current Third World Ballistic Missile Capabilities Country China Missile System CSS-1 (DF-2A) CSS-2 (DF-3) CSS-2 (DF-3A) CSS-3 (DF-4) CSS-4 (DF-5A) CSS-5 (DF-21A) DF-25 DF-31 DF-41 Agni I Agni II Status 1966 IOC 1971 IOC 1986 IOC 1978 IOC 1986 IOC 1987 IOC Reported Stopped 1996 IOC Under Dev. Initiated Flight Tested Early Stages of Dev.000 82.000 14. Flight Tested Dev. Engaged Effort Propulsion L L/L L/L L/L L/L L/L S/S/S S/S/S S/S/S S/L S/S L S Launch Payload Weight (kg) Weight (kg) 26.000 64. L/L 10/1/98 51 .000 183.

200 10/1/98 53 . Cancelled Dev.500-6000 1500 3100 In Dev.Argentina effort) L/L 48. Egypt. Cancelled (Joint Iraq.000 750 450 2000 2000 900 1300 Israel North Korea Jericho 2B (YA-2B) Jericho 3 NoDong 1 (aka Rodong-1) 1990 IOC Flight Tested S/S S/S L L/L L/L L L 29. Cancelled Dev. Prototype Propulsion L or S S S Launch Payload Weight (kg) Weight (kg) 500 Range (km) 700-1000 1000-1500 700-1000 Iraq Dev. 1 Flt Test Taepo Dong 1 (aka No Dong 2.Current Third World Ballistic Missile Capabilities (Cont) Country Iran (cont. / Poss. Rodong-2) Pakistan Saudi Arabia Taepo Dong 2 Ghauri/Mk III CSS-2 (imported from China) Engaged Effort One flight test 1988 IOC 65.000 21.000 1000 800 1000 1000 500-750 1900 4800 1300 1500-2000 3.000 21.) Missile System Tondar 68 (Iran 700) Zelzal –3 (modified M-11) M-18 (import form China) Al Abid Tammuz 1 Badr 2000 Status Dev.

Selected Countries with Ballistic Missile Development Programs • • • • • • • Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Iran South Africa 1 1 2 • • • • • • • Iraq Israel Libya North Korea Pakistan Saudi Arabia South Korea 3 2 4 1 2 3 4 10/1/98 Development efforts in-abeyance or cancelled Currently only involved in short range weapon systems Development efforts interrupted as result of Gulf War Deployment of CSS-2 IRBM’s only 55 .

Potential Iranian LRBM Coverage 90 60 Launch Point 30 0 6000 km 8000 km -30 -60 10000 km -90 -180 10/1/98 -120 -60 0 60 120 180 57 .

500 km 5.200 km Scud-B Mod C/Shahab-2 Nodong-1 M11 Acquired Engine Flight Tests Test IOC ? 1.500 .500 km 3.500 .000 -2.10.Iran’s Ballistic Missile Development Program Schedule Program Ranges (km) 45-200 km Oghab/Nazeat etc RDT&E 300 km Scud-B/Shahab-1 700 km Tech Demonstrator "Tondar-68" (Iran-700) RDT&E Delivery Manufacturing Capability 600 km 1.5.000 km Shahab-3/Zelzal-3 Shahab-4 "Shahab-5" "Shahab-6" SS-12 Technology Transfer 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Project Flower Israeli Technology Transfer from YA-2 (Jericho 1 Follow On) Extensive Chinese & NK Technology Transfers ∆ ∆ RDT&E Al Husayn SS-20 Technology Technology Transfer Transfer (?) SS-4 DF-3A Technology Technology Transfer Transfer (?) ∆ RDT&E ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ Test Fire Delivery ∆ ∆ Test Fire Test Fire ∆ Mushak-120/160/200 Manufacturing Capability Combat Use ∆ Export to Syria ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ Oghab IOC M7 Acquired Fajir-3 Export of Fajjir 3 ∆ ∆ ∆ ??????? Manufacturing Capability IOC ? IOC ? IOC (Target Date) 2010 59 .400 km 2.

Potential North Korean LRBM Coverage 90 60 Launch Point 30 0 6000 km -30 8000 km 10000 km -60 -90 -180 10/1/98 -120 -60 0 60 120 180 61 .

Agenda Page • • • • • • Introduction Historical Developments and Technology Migration Trends in Third World Ballistic Missile Weaponry Threat Development on a Compressed Schedule Candidate LRBM Configurations Summary 5 13 43 63 81 107 10/1/98 63 .

Obvious limitations.Challenges to Third World LRBM Development Obvious limitations... National toppriority funding Clustering & Stacking existing short range ballistic missile propulsion Off-the-shelf components (acceptable risk) Existing structural materials and techniques Simple flight programmer with GPS-aided navigation Foreign Technical Assistance in Spite of MTCR 10/1/98 65 ..MTCR and economic sanctions (2) Engineering and manufacturing infrastructure -..old facilities (3) Missile system integration skills -.limited technical manpower . (1) Access to Critical Technologies -.....may be mitigated by innovative shortcuts: .

pour. fabrication.Key Technical Challenges • Propulsion Systems • Liquids • Ground handling and loading of propellants -. and assembly of truss structures and interstages Cluster/stack integration Dynamic load margins throughout flight Accurate navigation. and cure • Structures • • • Design. sensing of booster variations Staging Power supplies and thermal control for LRBM duration flight • Control Electronics • • • 10/1/98 67 .toxicity & volatility • Valves and flow control for predictable burnout • Solids • Propellant grain consistency (motor-to-motor) • Dangerous large grain mix. timing.

Key Technical Challenges (Cont) • Reentry Systems • Payload packaging for high deceleration shock loads • Stable dynamic shape design and balancing techniques • Thermal protection against heating loads at LRBM reentry velocities • Fusing for payload detonation/dispersal at desired altitude System Test and Verification Technology • Onboard system performance instrumentation • Telemetry electronics and antennas (ballistic missile and range) • Flight data analysis tools • 10/1/98 69 .

Critical Technologies • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 10/1/98 High Energy Propellants Light Weight Subsystems Dynamic Structures Design and Analysis Aerodynamic Heat Protection Materials Advanced Flight Dynamics Control Systems Multi-Stage Separation and Ignition Payload Separation and Stabilization Payload Reentry Survival Warhead Fusing Guidance and Control Computers GPS/INS Platforms Flight Test Tracking and Telemetry High Fidelity Computer Simulation Test Range Availability 71 .

Required Engineering Development Infrastructure • Technical Expertise • • • • • • System design engineering Fabrication methods Materials & processes Flight mechanics Guidance & control Modeling & simulation • Industry • • • • • • • • Propellant processing and handling Propulsion subsystems Electro/mechanical control systems Structures manufacturing/assembly Materials processing Electronics production Precision guidance fab. & assembly Computer hardware and software • Flight Test • • • Range Range instrumentation Data analysis 10/1/98 73 .

Third World Development Time Compression Accelerating Missile Development Missile Performance + Expertise Iran’s Missile Program Evolution • Combines imported systems with indigenous development and testing • Extensive use of foreign expertise • Steady range growth beyond regional requirements 6000 ? ? + Technology and Subsystems Indigenous Development Shahab-6 ? Development Time Desired Missile Capability can be attained Desired Missile Capability can be attained by a combination of development “investments” by a combination of development “investments” that may be hard to identify that may be hard to identify ? Critical Unknowns: ? Critical Unknowns: 1) Level of missile technology at “start point” 1) Level of missile technology at “start point” 2) Foreign assistance to expedite system 2) Foreign assistance to expedite system integration of acquired components integration of acquired components 10/1/98 Range (km) ? 3000 Shahab-5 ? Shahab-4 ? 1000 Zelzal/Shahab-3 Nodong-1 Tondar-68 Shahab-1 1985 90 95 2000 05 75 .

Development Time Estimate Years to First Flight 1 2 Earliest Possible Launch Development Option • Buy Russian ICBM 3 4 5 Most Likely First launch • Buy & Convert Space Launch Vehicle • Cluster/Stack Existing Missiles ? • Design/Build Booster Stack Existing Missile for Upper Stage • Design/Build Entire Missile 10/1/98 ? ? 77 .

Effective Time to Respond Years from First Launch Development Option -3 -2 -1 ? 1 2 3 • Buy Russian or Chinese ICBM • Buy & Convert Space Launch Vehicle • Cluster/Stack Existing Missiles • Design/Build Booster Stack Existing Missile for Upper Stage • Design/Build Entire Missile Program Start ? ? Program Start Earliest launch Most Likely First launch Program Start Program Start First Indicator may be First Test Launch! First Indicator may be First Test Launch! 10/1/98 79 .

Agenda Page • • • • • • Introduction Historical Developments and Technology Migration Trends in Third World Ballistic Missile Weaponry Threat Development on a Compressed Schedule Candidate LRBM Configurations Summary 5 13 43 63 81 107 10/1/98 81 .

Options for LRBM Development • Buy LRBM (MRBM. IRBM.Stack Existing Missile for Upper Stage • Design/Build Entire Missile 10/1/98 83 . ICBM) • Buy & Convert Space Launch Vehicle • Cluster/Stack Existing Tactical Missiles • Design/Build Booster .

/N? NBC NBC Country IOC China 1971/ 1986 Saudi Arabia 1988 China 1978 China Dev. Stop 1996 India India Iran Iran Israel N.Korea N.Available IRBMs Missile • DF-3/DF-3A CSS-2 • CSS-3 • DF-25 • Agni 1 • Agni 2 • Shahab 4 • Shahab 5 • Jericho 3 • TD-1 • TD-2 Payload(kg) 2000/ 2150 1900 2200 2000 1000 1000 1000 ? 1000 1000 1000 Range(Km) 2800 3100 4750 1700 2000 3000 3000 ? 4800 1500-2000 2000-4000 Warhead Conv./ NBC Conv. Conv./ NBC Conv./ NBC Conv. Conv./ NBC Conv.Korea 1998 2002? 2002 2005? 2000? 1998? 1998? 10/1/98 85 ./ NBC Conv./ NBC Conv.

Options for LRBM Development • Buy LRBM (MRBM.Stack Existing Missile for Upper Stage • Design/Build Entire Missile 10/1/98 87 . ICBM) • Buy & Convert Space Launch Vehicle • Cluster/Stack Existing Tactical Missiles • Design/Build Booster . IRBM.

and nozzles are the same as SLV nozzles are the same as SLV Solid Propellant SLV Liquid Propellant ICBM Figure from 5/14/98 CIA briefing. guidance & control. Staging. thrust control. airframe. as depicted in Aviation Week & Space Technology.CIA Assessment of SLV-LRBM Conversion •• Only unique ballistic missile Only unique ballistic missile technology is the warhead technology is the warhead •• RV. thrust control. separation. propellants. 1998. 10/1/98 89 . separation. and engines. propellants. guidance & RV. engines. and strap-on booster SLV technologies may be adequate technologies may be adequate •• Staging. airframe. and strap-on booster SLV control. June 1.

Dia.fas.0 m.000 km Range (NRE) 4.000 kg Launch weight 39.org/spp/guide/india/launch/aslv.000 kg Payload weight 150 kg Payload weight 150 kg Orbit altitude 400 km Orbit altitude 400 km Inclination 46 degrees Inclination 46 degrees 23.6 m X 1.000 kg Launch weight 40.Indian ASLV Conversion ASLV • • Propulsion Configuration Propulsion Configuration • • 4-stage solid propellant booster (SLV-3) 4-stage solid propellant booster (SLV-3) • • 22strap-on rocket motors strap-on rocket motors • • Space Launch Capability Space Launch Capability •• •• •• •• Launch weight 39.000 km From Jane’s Information Group 10/1/98 Drawing from Federation of American Scientists: http://www.000 kg • • Payload weight 1000 kg Payload weight 1000 kg • • Range (NRE) 4. • • Ballistic Missile Capability Ballistic Missile Capability • • Launch weight 40.htm 91 .

000 (est.htm 10/1/98 93 .000-7. X 1. slightly larger follow-on • • Space Launch Capability Space Launch Capability •• •• •• •• Launch weight 29.) Launch weight 29. inclination.56 m. slightly larger follow-on NEXT. • • Ballistic Missile Capability Ballistic Missile Capability • • Launch weight 29.000 kg Payload weight 800 kg Payload weight 800 kg Orbit altitude 400 km Orbit altitude 400 km Inclination Polar Inclination Polar 14 m.000-7.fas.) • • Payload weight 1.org/spp/guide/Israel/launch/index.000 (est. dia.000 km • •Demonstrated Demonstrated 160 kg payload 160 kg payload to 207 xx 1587 km to 207 1587 km elliptical orbit @ elliptical orbit @ 143 degree 143 degree retrograde retrograde inclination. From Jane’s Information Group Jerico 2 From Federation of American Scientists web site: http://www.000 kg Launch weight 29.100 kg • • Range (NRE) 5.000 km Range (NRE) 5.100 kg Payload weight 1.Israeli SHAVIT Conversion SHAVIT SLV • • Propulsion Configuration Propulsion Configuration • • 3-stage solid propellant booster 3-stage solid propellant booster (based on Jericho 2) (based on Jericho 2) • • NEXT.

7 m 2nd stage w/ ENEC & TVC 13.0 m • • Diameter ==2. solid The M-5 is three.000 kg M-5 LRBM performance has not yet been assessed M-5 LRBM performance has not yet been assessed M-5 SLV 9 m. The Japanese Government has 4.000 kg to 200 km.Japanese M-3 or M-5 Conversion •• The M-3 space launch vehicle The M-3 space launch vehicle “family”could be converted into an IRBM “family”could be converted into an IRBM with aa500+ kg payload and aarange of with 500+ kg payload and range of 4.000 kg Launch weight 130.200 kg to 500 km and 800 kg to GTO.5 m • • Launch weight ==130. Insulated payload faring & Third stage w/ ENEC & TVC 6.or four-stage. solid propellant launch vehicle designed to propellant launch vehicle designed to carry payloads of 2. The Japanese Government has officially refuted this allegation. 1.7 m 1st stage w/ movable nozzle •• •• From Jane’s Information Group 10/1/98 Source: Jane’s Strategic Weapons 95 . * * officially refuted this allegation.200 kg to 500 km and 800 kg to GTO. Three-stage version shown: Three-stage version shown: • • Length ==31. The M-5 is aathree.or four-stage. carry payloads of 2.0 m Length 31. * * 1.000+ km.000 kg to 200 km.000+ km.5 m Diameter 2.

ICBM) • Buy & Convert Space Launch Vehicle • Cluster/Stack Existing Missiles • Design/Build Booster .Stack Existing Missile for Upper Stage • Design/Build Entire Missile 10/1/98 97 . IRBM.Options for LRBM Development • Buy LRBM (MRBM.

000 kg Launch Weight -.M-9’s at burnout Stage 33-.30 degrees Reentry Angle -.000 kg Reentry Angle -.400 kg Reentry Angle -.150 kg Launch Weight -.5 minutes Time of Flight -.30 degrees Reentry Angle -.000 km Solid • • Clustered M-9 ballistic missiles Clustered M-9 ballistic missiles Stage 11-.500 km Range -.Two Feasible LRBM Designs Liquid • • Clustered CSS-2 ballistic missiles Clustered CSS-2 ballistic missiles Stage 11-.10.500 km 10/1/98 99 .255.10.CSS-2 Payload -.33CSS-2’s Stage -.150 kg Guidance -.30 degrees Time of Flight -.150 kg Launch Weight -.750 kg Payload -.150 kg Guidance -.6.28.5 minutes Range -.1000 kg Payload -.5 minutes Range -.30 degrees Time of Flight -.400 kg Launch Weight -.750 kg Guidance -.11M-9 Stage -.11CSS-2 Stage -.M-9 Payload -.255.1000 kg Guidance -.77M-9’s Stage -.000 km Range -.M-9’s Separate Stage 22-.6.59.28.46.46.59.33M-9’s Stage -.5 minutes Time of Flight -.CSS-2’s Separate at burnout Stage 22-.

G&C stays with spent upper stage Interstages between booster stages sized for flight loads at increased diameter Revised raceways and electrical system wiring Guidance subsystem increased power and cooling Truss structure for clustered rocket motors Extendible nozzle exit cones (upper stages only) Booster separation mechanisms Booster thermal protection for aero loads and motor nozzle heat • • • • • • • 10/1/98 2nd Stage (1 Stacked DF-3) 1st Stage (3 Clustered DF-3s) 101 .Design Issues Considered in Assessment • • RV structure & materials for 30 degree reentry Payload separation at booster burnout.

Range Sensitivity to Payload Weight Nominal payload/range performance of modeled LRBMs 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 500 10/1/98 Range (km) M -9 C luster C SS-2 C luster 750 1000 1250 1500 2000 103 Payload Options (kg) .

Evaluation Methodology • AS-2530 Flight Simulation Code • • • 3 .degrees of freedom Non-rotating spherical earth Standard atmospheric properties Vertical launch Instantaneous pitchover Gravity turn Payload separation at booster burnout Keplarian free flight Keplarian reentry No reentry angle of attack Nominal ballistics Nominal weights Estimated drag properties • Powered ascent flight profile • • • • • Payload flight profile • • • • Missile characteristics • • • 10/1/98 105 .

Agenda Page • • • • • • Introduction Historical Developments and Technology Migration Trends in Third World Ballistic Missile Weaponry Threat Development on a Compressed Schedule Candidate LRBM Configurations Summary 5 13 43 63 81 107 10/1/98 107 .

systems.Summary • • • • • • Third World Countries are capable of achieving LRBM capability Innovative technical shortcuts may be used for different national goals • Political or coercive vs military capability Time to First Flight may be much earlier than currently anticipated Time from observed threat to first launch may be very short MTCR is not stopping missile technology proliferation Developed countries are currently marketing critical ballistic missile technologies. and personnel The Time Between Inescapable Evidence of a The Time Between Inescapable Evidence of a Developing Threat to When That Threat is Fielded May Developing Threat to When That Threat is Fielded May be Less Than the Time in Which We Can Respond be Less Than the Time in Which We Can Respond 10/1/98 109 .

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