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interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.1680
Investigating the climatic impact of urban planning strategies through the use of regional climate modelling: a case study for Melbourne, Australia
Andrew M. Coutts,* Jason Beringer and Nigel J. Tapper
School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Melbourne, Vic, 3800, Australia
ABSTRACT: Urban planning is a useful method for improving local climate and human health in cities through purposefully modifying urban land surface characteristics. This can reduce the potential risks of elevated city temperatures due to the urban heat island (UHI). Unfortunately, simple tools are not readily available for urban planners to assess the climatological impacts of various urban development scenarios. Urban modelling could be developed into such a tool to achieve this. This study attempts to design and evaluate a suitable tool for application in Melbourne, Australia. The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) was chosen to assess the impact of a long-term urban planning strategy on local climate and the above canopy UHI in Melbourne. Improvements were made to TAPM by increasing the number of urban land-use classes in the model and creating a higher resolution land cover database focused on housing density. This modiﬁed version of TAPM showed a good performance in replicating the surface energy balance compared with an observational ﬂux tower site in suburban Melbourne during summer. TAPM simulated a mean maximum UHI intensity of 3–4 ° C at 2 a.m. in January. A future UHI scenario was then examined (year 2030) using an urban land cover database derived from plans in the Melbourne 2030 urban planning strategy. Results highlighted speciﬁc areas where planning intervention would be particularly useful to improve local climates, namely activity centres and growth areas. The appropriateness of the use of TAPM and climate models as a tool in urban planning is also discussed. Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
urban planning; urban climate; climate modelling; Melbourne; surface energy balance
Received 18 August 2006; Revised 1 December 2007; Accepted 10 December 2007
Unplanned and rapid urbanization in cities can often lead to negative environmental impacts, including modiﬁcations to the local urban climate. The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon is often evident in cities whereby urban areas are warmer than surrounding rural areas. UHIs may contribute towards elevated temperatures, which can be harmful for vulnerable urban residents, particularly during summer and heat wave episodes (Rankin, 1959). Higher incidences of heat-related illnesses including heart disease and even mortality have been associated with elevated temperatures within urban areas. Those particularly at risk include the elderly, lowincome earners, and residents in high density, older housing stock with limited surrounding vegetation (SmoyerTomic et al., 2003). Fortunately, there is sufﬁcient evidence to suggest that urban planning can be a useful method for improving local climate and human health (Jackson, 2003; Stone, 2005). In order to reduce negative climatological impacts, those involved in urban development and design must begin to incorporate climate knowledge into planning strategies.
* Correspondence to: Andrew M. Coutts, School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Wellington Road, Clayton, Victoria, 3800, Australia. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
UHIs form primarily because of high thermal heat capacity and heat storage of urban surfaces, added sources of heat from anthropogenic activities, and reduced evapotranspiration (Oke, 1988). Within the urban canopy (below maximum building height), urban geometry is also important in controlling radiative exchanges between the walls and ﬂoor of urban canyons. Small sky view factors (SVF) and large height to width ratios trap radiative energy during the day and limit nocturnal cooling. This leads to the development of peak UHI intensities during the night, as rural areas are allowed to cool uninhibited. Cloud amount and wind speed are important meteorological parameters as they affect longwave cooling and ventilation, which serve as surrogate variables describing the relative roles of radiative and turbulent exchanges in and around the urban region (Morris and Simmonds, 2000). While the UHI phenomenon has been well documented in the climatological literature over the past few decades, few cities have developed comprehensive strategies to mitigate its intensity. Reasons for little consideration of climate related understanding in urban planning include a lack of knowledge, economic constraints, and communication problems (Eliasson, 2000). Added to these reasons, planning tools are not often available for planning authorities to assess the implications of projected
Martilli et al. In particular. This kind of information is highly valuable to urban planners in developing policies for reducing negative climatic impacts to protect vulnerable urban dwellers from the risk of exposure to elevated heat conditions. 2004.. Masson et al. estimating energy consumption. Single level urban canopy models have also been developed and incorporated into atmospheric models where the canopy model simulates turbulent ﬂuxes into the atmosphere at the base of the atmospheric model. one such tool that can address the issue of climate impacts of urban planning strategies. and roads. COUTTS ET AL. Similarly. the ability of climate models to simulate the urban climate has improved. turbulent and storage heat ﬂuxes can be calculated through a series of linked equations. while modiﬁcations were also made to the dynamical part of the model resulting in acceleration to the diffusion processes during unstable conditions. 2005).1944 A.1002/joc . Given the growing knowledge and capacity of urban climate modelling. Using net all-wave radiation. Information at all urban scales (global. SVF. This approach calculates the surface temperature of each surface type by taking into account the interactions of shadowing and radiation trapping effects. Taha (1999) modelled effects of increased albedo for all the LULC types in Atlanta (increasing residential albedo from 0. as urban planners require tools that incorporate such features.. The second type of parameterization scheme involves the inclusion of a separate urban canopy scheme to the land surface model by incorporating parameters to represent canyon geometry and interactions between the walls. 2004). 2004. if adequately developed. While accuracy in modelling the urban climate is of prime importance. The ﬁrst type of scheme involves simple modiﬁcations to existing land surface schemes by modifying or ‘fabricating’ the parameters of the land surface to broadly behave like an urban surface.2 and 0. 2004.3–0. as has their appropriateness as a tool that may aid urban planning. 2005. The model also included anthropogenic heating.16 to 0. the high heat storage of urban landscapes associated with high thermal admittance and radiation trapping. Climate modelling that uses speciﬁc treatments at the urban surface can signiﬁcantly help in determining the likely impacts of large scale urbanization on local climate and UHI development.8 ° C. Tools like satellite imagery (such as MODIS) or databases of urban land-use and land classiﬁcation (LULC). (2005) made modiﬁcations to the thermal part of the ﬁfthgeneration Penn state/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) that incorporated the OHM. features such as ease of use and short running time should also be important factors. the development of such tools based on scientiﬁc research that can be incorporated into the urban planning framework should be a challenge and focus for urban climatologists. land-use change on local climate (Fehrenbach et al. as well as the added sources of anthropogenic heat. Recent work in regional scale modelling has seen the development of a number of urban models of varying degrees of complexity based on two types of parameterization schemes.5 ° C. The urban surface is highly complex and models require additional inputs. such as increasing roughness lengths and decreasing albedo (Atkinson. simple information on surface cover and standard weather observations. both local and regional. Masson.75 ° C. while the roughness length decreased intensity. At night... rooftops. such as heights of buildings. 2003). 2003). and microscale) can be highly beneﬁcial for planners. it is important that they are correctly able to simulate the urban climate at this scale. 2002). the roughness length. and new and improved parameterizations. 28: 1943–1957 (2008) DOI: 10. J. emissivity. A good summary of urban modelling approaches and developments can be found in Dandou et al. need to be incorporated. Taha (1999) used a bulk parameterization approach to better incorporate heat storage and more Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society explicitly account for urban canopy layer ﬂuxes. As a result of such modiﬁcations and developments. According to Eliasson (2000). is climate modelling. and aiding in urban planning (Kusaka and Kimura. For instance. but knowledge about climate at the city (regional) and neighbourhood (local) scale is speciﬁcally relevant as planning authorities inﬂuence/regulate features at this scale. Some characteristics of these included using the drag force approach to represent the dynamic and turbulent effects of buildings and vegetation while the thermal modiﬁcations of the surface involve a 3D urban canopy (Dupont et al.) and showed a decrease in the air temperature of about 0. 2001).. improving weather forecasts. which uses net all-wave radiation and the surface properties of the site to calculate heat storage (Grimmond et al. parameterizing both the surface and the roughness sub-layer (Kusaka and Kimura. For climate models to be a useful tool in aiding sustainable urban planning. 2000). 2002). to accurately simulate the urban climate (Zehnder. Climatol. 2002). thermal inertia and surface resistance to evaporation (SRE) all aided the formation of an UHI to varying amounts of between 0. this study attempts to investigate the role of climate modelling as a tool for use in urban Int. the albedo. but the largest effect (2 ° C) came from anthropogenic heating (Atkinson. However. emissivity. now provide ﬁner spatial resolution of the high heterogeneity of urban characteristics (albedo. A number of variations on this approach have been developed. The Town Energy Balance model (TEB) is one such scheme and has been shown to simulate the surface energy balance and climate well compared with observations (Lemonsu et al. Jin and Shepherd. regional. local. anthropogenic heat. emissivity or heights of buildings) across cities as input databases for models (Dandou et al.. which also included the OHM. Atkinson (2003) found that in London during the day. SVF and SRE aided UHI formation by 0. (2005). Dandou et al. One simple parameterization scheme developed by Grimmond and Oke (2002) is called the Localscale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS). SRE was the most important factor increasing the UHI intensity during the day.. M. 1991. The equations include the Objective Hysteresis Model (OHM).29 etc.
were assessed. Continued urbanization following existing development patterns is likely to lead to an intensiﬁcation of the UHI (Coutts et al. anti-cyclonic events often bring warm and dry North to Northeast airﬂow over Melbourne..1002/joc .URBAN PLANNING AND CLIMATE IN MELBOURNE 1945 planning and to design and evaluate a suitable tool for Melbourne. this city model can encourage UHI development and compromise green-space. 2007). shopping. albedo. if not planned in an informed manner. which emphasizes connectivity and mixed use developments at critical nodes (intersecting transport routes) (Mills. Our approach consisted of two scenarios: (A) a simulation of the current urban climate and UHI intensity in Melbourne and (B) a year 2030 scenario of increased urbanization based on the Melbourne 2030 key directions to investigate likely future changes to urban climate. 2001). Rather. Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society Unplanned and hasty urban development could compromise the overall goal of the Melbourne 2030 strategy. potentially threatening the environmental quality of the city (Pauleit et al. the prognostic meteorological component solves approximations to the fundamental ﬂuid dynamics equations. 2007b). The anticipated development of a more compact city. while mean early morning (6 a. (2002). we aimed to model the regional climate of Melbourne and its subsequent UHI. and dwelling density. anthropogenic heating. Dandou et al. suggesting that under optimal conditions (clear skies and low winds) UHI intensity can be much higher. mean building height. Therefore. improvements in results were comparable with that produced by the complex canopy scheme of Martilli et al. 2. and rather than requiring site speciﬁc observations. vegetation cover. the ease of a PC-based interface for use in Windows operating systems. 2005). which will impact especially on vulnerable urban dwellers. The strategy seeks to achieve a more compact city through the development of activity centres (built up centres for business. 2005). 28: 1943–1957 (2008) DOI: 10.2. The air pollution model (TAPM) and urban modiﬁcations Selecting an appropriate model as a tool for urban climate impact assessment and use by urban planners is likely to depend on a number of parameters. could lead to an exacerbated UHI intensity. the ability to run simulations without surface observational inputs. which aims to achieve a liveable.m. (2005) suggested that despite the simplicity of their bulk urban parameterization scheme. non-hydrostatic.56 ° C (Morris and Simmonds.1 ° C in the central business district (CBD) during the evening (9 p. a sustainable city is often described in the urban design literature as compact. Australia is a rapidly growing city with an anticipated population increase of up to 1 million people by the year 2030. and should be user-friendly. 2005) was selected for this study as beneﬁts included the ability to conduct year-long simulations. primitive equation meteorological model with a terrain following vertical coordinate for 3D simulations and a 3D nestable.68 ° C found at 6 a..1. In 2002. 2. The urban planning strategy for Melbourne. The meteorological component of TAPM is an incompressible. 2002). user-deﬁned surface cover databases. Results will highlight to urban planners that the UHI is an issue that needs to be addressed and identify speciﬁc areas/regions where planning intervention may be required. ﬂows such as sea breezes and terrain ﬂows are predicted against Int. The ease of use is likely to be important. 2000). However. During summer.m. Cities that are low density and reliant on private car transport and strong zoning that separates housing. we will comment on the use of regional scale modelling as a tool in urban planning. These are mean UHI intensities. Modiﬁcations included an improved urban surface parameterization and an improved land cover input database. 2001). the possible climatic impacts of a long-term urban planning strategy for Melbourne. attractive and prosperous city. Australia. 2005). working and leisure with forms of higher density housing) and the establishment of an urban growth boundary (Figure 1) (Department of Sustainability and Environment.) UHI intensity during these conditions has been observed at 3. (Morris et al. The Air Pollution Model (TAPM). Using a modiﬁed version of TAPM. high density urban form and supported by a comprehensive transport network. eularian grid (Hurley.m. As well as assessing the impact of the urban planning strategy. TAPM has the potential to be adopted as an urban planning tool. employment and services are unsustainable. This will be compounded by increased hot weather and hazardous climatic conditions through global warming (IPCC. An automobile transect across Melbourne in 1992 showed a peak UHI intensity as high as 7. Future planning directions of the strategy aim at encouraging a more compact city by clustering and increasing the amount of housing in established urban areas. 2002). Australia The city of Melbourne. Melbourne 2030 aims for a sustainable city and the planning strategy provided a good opportunity to investigate the use of regional climate modelling in assessing urban climate modiﬁcations resulting from land-use and planning policies. and a range of methods for analysing outputs. the Victorian Government introduced a planning strategy to accommodate this growth titled ‘Melbourne 2030 ’. TAPM (Hurley. and inputs of surface characteristics into the model should be simply described and readily available. The accuracy of the model must be sufﬁcient to robustly simulate the urban climate yet not overly complex. Methods 2. and can send temperatures in excess of 35 ° C during the day. J. Climatol. computationally expensive. such as through easily obtainable data on types of surface cover.) (Torok et al. Through the use of a regional scale model. As described in Hurley (2005).. requiring the development of approximately 620 000 new households (Department of Sustainability and Environment.. with a 20-year mean maximum UHI of 2. Melbourne already shows an UHI signature.
1002/joc . 2003). 2003). including a counter-gradient term for heat ﬂux from turbulence terms determined by solving equations for turbulent kinetic energy and eddy dissipation rate. 28: 1943–1957 (2008) DOI: 10. M.interscience. Department of Sustainability and Environment. Figure 1. 2003). TAPM includes a soilvegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) scheme. However. The vertical ﬂuxes are represented by a gradient diffusion approach. COUTTS ET AL.wiley. thermal conductivity) are given appropriate urban values. J. 2003) (State of Victoria. The Melbourne 2030 compact city with the location of activity centres and the urban growth boundary (Department of Sustainability and Environment. For the period July 1997 to June 1998. TAPM only incorporated a Int.. which is used at the model surface.1946 A. This ﬁgure is available in colour online at www. including one in Melbourne (Hurley et al. The anthropogenic heat ﬂux is also included in the surface ﬂux equations (Hurley. temperature and speciﬁc humidity are calculated depending on the fraction of urban surface cover following similar approaches Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society for non-urban surfaces. Results showed that the 10m winds and screen level temperature were predicted very well with a low average Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and a high index of agreement (IOA) (Hurley et al.com/ijoc a background of larger scale meteorology provided by global synoptic analysis. A number of validation studies and evaluations have been conducted on TAPM. model veriﬁcation was completed using eight monitoring sites across Melbourne. except that the surface properties (albedo. Climatol.. For urban land surfaces in TAPM. and a radiative ﬂux parameterization at both the model surface and at upper levels in the atmosphere. 2005).
The site was located in Preston. energy.m−2 ). anthropogenic heat ﬂux Au (W.75 0. This ﬁgure is available in colour online at www. models need to be able to replicate the partitioning of available energy adequately in order to robustly simulate the resultant climate.K−1 ). 1988): Q∗ + QF = QH + QE + QS where Q∗ is net radiation. and transport databases). moderately developed housing area consisting largely of detached dwellings.75 LAI – 2 2 2 2 2 rsi – 100 100 100 100 100 Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society Int. north of Melbourne (145° 0 47 .wiley.URBAN PLANNING AND CLIMATE IN MELBOURNE 1947 single homogeneous urban surface class for the entire urban region with single values for land surface parameters such as albedo and thermal conductivity derived from the literature.. The medium density observational study site in Preston. building height zH (m). mean building height.65 0. Climatol. leaf area index LAI. Hence. 1988). roughness length z0u (m). The original urban surface characteristics from Preston are given along with the values assigned in the model for each level of urban density: fraction of urban cover σu . TAPM was modiﬁed to improve simulations of urban environments by incorporating four urban land surface types (low. QF is anthropogenic heating.75 0.15 0. and CBD) replacing the existing single urban surface.13 0. anthropogenic heat ﬂux (determined using population.6 15 25 40 60 zou 0. σu Observed (Preston) TAPM (3.5 0. 37° 43 57 ) in a sprawling. fraction of non-urban area covered by vegetation σf . Surface parameters in TAPM for the medium density surface type were speciﬁed using information from an observational site located in suburban Melbourne (Coutts et al. The urban surface energy balance is given by (Oke. minimum stomatal resistance rsi (s−1 .75 0. Surface energy balance measurements from the Preston site were used to evaluate the performance of the model for simulated medium density housing in Preston.1002/joc . roughness length.4 1 0.m−1 ). typical of the Melbourne urban landscape (Figure 2).15 0. medium and high density.8 0. The surface energy balance is simulated in TAPM and considered fundamental to an understanding of boundary layer climates and is basic to an understanding of such features as thermodynamic behaviour of air and surface temperature and humidity.8 2 zH 12 10 8 12 16 100 σf – 0.2) default Urban (low) Urban (medium) Urban (high) Urban (CBD) 0. albedo αu . 1988) to measure local scale ﬂuxes (102 –104 m) of sensible and latent Figure 2.m−1 . QE is the latent heat ﬂux and QS is the storage heat ﬂux.75 0. QH is sensible heat ﬂux.5 0. J. 28: 1943–1957 (2008) DOI: 10. Site characterization showed a plan impervious surface cover of 62%. Surface characteristics observed at the site included fraction of urban and vegetation cover (determined from aerial photography)..17 0.interscience.com/ijoc Table I.6 0.15 0. 2007b). and the dynamics of local airﬂow (Oke. Observations were taken from instruments mounted on a tall tower at a height of 40 m using the eddy correlation technique (Baldocchi et al.1 Au 9–12 30 10 15 20 40 ku – 4. thermal conductivity ku (W. and albedo (Table I) and were available as model input parameters.4 0. which included a plan building area of 45% and had a mean height to width ratio of 0.62 0.42. located north of Melbourne CBD.0.95 αu 0.
The database for the Melbourne 2030 scenario (Scenario B) was based on the document’s key directions as discussed earlier. Climatol. Plans for Melbourne 2030 aim to increase the average housing density signiﬁcantly from 1000 dwellings per km2 to an average of 1500 dwellings per km2 (Department of Sustainability and Environment. as urban residents are exposed to higher ambient temperatures at this time.1948 A. sea surface temperature and soil classiﬁcation data. 2007b) and other literature values. Housing within another 1-km radius was anticipated to increase to at least medium density while existing high density housing areas and the CBD areas remained as such (Figure 3).. and 10 Specialized activity centres were then added. Using the value of a component material such as concrete in bulk model parameterizations does not capture the full inﬂuence of the heterogeneous urban landscape or the effects of the urban canopy. In order to run the scenarios described. were also used in the scenarios (Hurley. The location of the proposed 26 Principal. Moreover. as well as the CBD. Radiation sensors measured each component of the radiation balance. The storage heat ﬂux was calculated as a residual of the energy balance equation. These 8 years of January simulations were conducted so that modelled differences were due to land surface changes and not due to year-to-year climate variability. Sugawara et al. M.1002/joc .2 was conﬁgured with three nested grids of 110 × 110 horizontal points with the inner grid encompassing the Melbourne metropolitan area at a grid spacing of 1000 m centred at 145° 9 E and 37° 59 S. (2001) created a thermal property parameter (combining the product of speciﬁc heat and thermal conductivity) that better represented urban surfaces. TAPM was run for the month of January and compared with the observations at the medium density observational site (Preston) (Figure 4). by assuming that the surrounding housing for a 1-km radius would be high density (within walking distance). 82 Major.0.75° grid spacing. 2001). high. 2007b). a surface database of low. Model conﬁguration and database development same forcing data were used for each experiment. For the current day scenario (Scenario A) a vegetation (land-use) database was obtained that provided recent vegetation cover (1988) (Geoscience Australia. vapour pressure. Model outputs matching the location of the Preston site were compared with the observed surface energy balance and meteorological parameters and provided information to evaluate how well TAPM replicated the surface energy balance and simulated the local urban climate at the observational site. medium density areas between 10 and 15 dwellings per hectare and low density areas less than 10 dwellings per hectare (though greater than 1) (Figure 3).01 decimal degree grid cells (approximately 1 km). The urban land surface characteristics for Urban (medium) (Table I) were set to be very similar to the medium density observational site described (Preston). and friction velocity were also conducted. and 25 vertical grid levels were selected with the highest level at 8000 m.. 2003). The modiﬁed TAPM version 3. Evaluating TAPM against urban surface energy balance observations Using the new land surface database of the current Melbourne urban landscape. Other databases of terrain height (9-s DEM). Model scenarios for the current and year 2030 scenarios were performed for January during the Austral summer. wind speed. identifying the importance of canyon geometry in trapping and storing energy. In addition. J. in order to replicate the storage capacity of a complex 3D urban surface in a one-dimensional surface scheme the thermal conductivity was substantially increased in the model. the urban growth boundary was added and those areas not currently developed within the urban growth boundary were assigned to the low density class. heat and momentum. 1998) at a 0. This parameter was determined to be much larger than a homogenous surface type such as asphalt and concluded that the value should be a few times larger than the component material in bulk urban models that do not deal with canyon shape explicitly (Sugawara et al. The low.. COUTTS ET AL. 2005). Results and Discussion 3. and high density areas. TAPM showed a good performance in replicating the diurnal course and monthly mean surface energy balance Int. 2. was constructed. Synoptic scale forcing meteorology was provided from the 6-hourly Limited Area Prediction Systems (LAPS) (Puri et al.1. 2001) and the dwelling density calculated for each district (dwellings per km2 ). the Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society 3. The middle and outer grid spacings were 3000 m and 10 000 m. respectively. medium. The thermal conductivity needed to be increased well above realistic values before the surface began behaving similarly to a ‘real’ urban surface. However. and CBD urban land surface characteristics were then assigned with reference to the values of Urban (medium) (Table I) using expert knowledge of the Melbourne urban landscape from the observational campaign (Coutts et al. Therefore. 28: 1943–1957 (2008) DOI: 10. Large scale synoptic analyses were used to force the model between the periods 1997 and 2004. Observations of temperature.3. This site was one of three urban ﬂux sites operating at various times and locations in Melbourne during 2003–2004 (Coutts et al. Information on census districts for the entire Melbourne metropolitan area were collected (Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). the thermal conductivity value for the land surface was modiﬁed in order to match the storage heat ﬂux results from TAPM with the observational results at the medium density site in Preston during January.. This database was overlain on the vegetation database and used as input into TAPM. 2002). In TAPM. Taking the current urban density database. This information was converted to mean dwelling density for 0. relevant land surface databases were developed at a suitable resolution for input into TAPM. giving net radiation. high density areas were deemed to be greater than 15 dwellings per hectare.
interscience. showing a peak Int. The storage heat ﬂux was also well replicated. J. 084) for the month of January 2004. so monthly averages of Q∗ were overestimated. QE (y = 0.wiley.833x + 14. These included the hysteresis pattern in QS .com/ijoc for the month of January 2004. This ﬁgure is available in colour online at www. the TAPM model performed well. The model also captured important features of urban energy balance partitioning (Figure 4).URBAN PLANNING AND CLIMATE IN MELBOURNE 1949 Figure 3. Climatol.wiley. On the majority of the January days.789x + 18. This is caused by an overestimation of incoming solar radiation due to the inability of the model to capture cloudy skies and poor air quality (which Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society can reﬂect and scatter incoming short wave radiation). although some discrepancy was evident in both Q∗ and QH .819).017). The evaporative ﬂux was replicated well by the model.com/ijoc Figure 4. QH (y = 1. This extra energy led to additional partitioning into QH . only showing an overestimation in the afternoon.032x + 58.interscience. Comparison of the observed (dashed line) and modelled (solid line) diurnal surface energy balance (observed height 40 m and model level 50 m) for location (145° 0 47 . This ﬁgure is available in colour online at www. Regression (ﬁt) equations were Q∗ (y = 1. 37° 43 57 ) and corresponding grid point (043.1002/joc . Land surface database of current density scenario A (left) and the Melbourne 2030 scenario B with the urban growth boundary (right).626).007). 28: 1943–1957 (2008) DOI: 10. QS (y = 0.137x + 30.
model level 50 m) for location (145° 0 47 .. Root Mean Square Error. Slight discrepancies were seen in the diurnal temperature plot. relative humidity.38 0. relative humidity.33 1.24 44.m−2 ).74 4.m−2 ). and wind speed (Figure 5). the model did not capture QS and QH well. and wind speed (observed height 40 m.92 −63. 084) for the month of January 2004.m−2 ).90 136. observations.21 0. sO sP . Comparison of observed (left) and modelled (right) temperature.89 0.17 0.73 1.85 0. CORR.58 267. predicted values. A reasonable replication Figure 5. and storage heat ﬂux QS (W. wind speed WS (m/s). friction velocity u∗ (m/s). TAPM was also run from August 2003 to July 2004 corresponding with the year-long observational study.13 −0.21 6.75 0.01 130.93 0.03 0. partitioning in January was good as the model parameters for the urban surface characteristics were adjusted to match this data.00 45.05 0. 1981). O.93 1. Importantly.40 0.87 87.81 51. sensible heat ﬂux QH (W.61 14.10 63.. with a reduced lag in temperature approaching its maximum and the nighttime temperatures were underestimated.91 0. due to underestimation of nighttime heat storage release. Coefﬁcient of determination (Willmott. observed and predicted standard deviations.53 u∗ 744 0.80 QH 744 88.21 0.93 0. J. 2007b). 084) for the month of January 2004 of temperature T (° C). Systematic RMSE.63 Q∗ 744 146.58 47.79 1.15 0. M. Statistical comparisons are also given for the surface energy balance components. speciﬁc humidity q (g/kg).64 −10. RMSEU .88 0.71 24.95 0. 37° 43 57 ) and corresponding model grid point (043. supported by heat storage release from the urban fabric. so the ﬂux ratios and how they vary between density classes were of particular interest (Figure 6).04 0.79 0.1950 A. Table II gives the January 2004 monthly comparison of modelled meteorological variables and their associated error for the model grid point corresponding with the measurement tower location. Climatol.94 0. Table II. RMSES . yet over the course of the year. compiled following Willmott (1981).44 0. Despite the discrepancy in Q∗ and QH .09 0.03 31. Pearman Correlation.87 0. 28: 1943–1957 (2008) DOI: 10. latent heat ﬂux QE (W.07 0. r 2 .19 0.90 151.35 16. Therefore.43 28.34 151. approximately 1–2 h before the peak in Q∗ .75 34. RMSE.1002/joc . while the summer month (January) was of primary interest.50 0. Statistical comparison between variables for the observational location (145° 0 47 .94 1.92 0.76 4.89 1.09 −11.95 74.63 q 744 7. and remained slightly positive throughout the night.61 131.52 127.26 209.83 0.35 0. Unsystematic RMSE. Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society Int.80 0.06 116. The peak was not as evident in the observations during this month as what was generally seen during the observational campaign (Coutts et al. T n O P sO sP CORR RMSE RMSES RMSEU MAE d r2 744 16.65 n.76 −42.87 0. Also. Changes in urban surface characteristics inﬂuence how net radiation is partitioned into each of the surface energy balance components.47 0. there was also observational data available for a full year (Coutts et al.86 0. both QH and QE remained positive into the evening. COUTTS ET AL.27 2.84 0. Naturally.76 QE 744 40. Index of Agreement. The asymmetry in QH was also evident with the peak occurring later in the afternoon.06 78. number of observations.22 307.81 81. d. 2007b) and it was possible to see how well the model reproduced the partitioning of the urban surface energy balance seasonally (Figure 6).56 QS 744 17. the model accurately simulated temperature. P .39 1.33 0.80 WS 744 4. 37° 43 57 ) and corresponding grid point (043.89 0.23 0.00 3.73 1.27 0.
J. leading to the reduced energy partitioning into QE . the partitioning of energy into QE was acceptable over the course of the year and responded well to the changes in surface cover. so it was likely that deep soil volumetric moisture contents Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society were also below average at this time. The modelled data for these urban classes were not veriﬁed against any observations. Mean monthly plots of daytime fractions of Q∗ for each energy balance component and the Bowen Ratio. Rainfall in Melbourne during February and March 2004.1002/joc . The modelled Urban (medium) heat storage fraction ( QS /Q∗ ) during the summer period generally showed a slight underestimation compared with the observations. Generally. Actual deep soil volumetric moisture contents were not available to initialize the model and we found that there was a mismatch in the seasonal course of QE /Q∗ between the observations and the model output (Figure 6). moisture contents were the lowest over the Austral summer months (December–February). Comparing each of the densities. However. MEDIUM. Figure 6 also demonstrates the differences in partitioning of energy between each of the urban land surface classes in the model and shows that the inﬂuence of changing the land surface values alters energy balance partitioning. was well below average. As expected. of observations for the evaporative fraction (QE /Q∗ ) was seen over the course of the year. QE /Q∗ decreased with increasing urban density as the vegetated surface cover was replaced with greater impervious surface cover. 28: 1943–1957 (2008) DOI: 10. CBD. Some differences in energy partitioning over the course of the year could result from a number of uncertainties. but were much improved compared with earlier versions of TAPM. however. Climatol. More accurate values of monthly soil moisture content could improve this result. The Bowen Ratio (QH /QE ) is not shown for the CBD as it was signiﬁcantly higher (≈20). and LOW correspond to each of the urban classes and OBSERVATIONS correspond to the measured data from Preston. absorption of energy by the urban surface in the Int. HIGH. restricting evapotranspiration. The substantial increases of the values for thermal conductivity in the model were large enough to capture the signiﬁcant energy storage by the 3D urban landscape. In the model. the amount of heat storage increased with increasing density.URBAN PLANNING AND CLIMATE IN MELBOURNE 1951 Figure 6.
Some of these areas are located along transport links and ‘growth areas’ designated for concentrated expansion as outlined in Melbourne 2030. However. The extent of change in the UHI resulting from planning strategies shows areas that are particularly vulnerable. Additionally. a pattern that TAPM did replicate. as well as added surface moisture for increased QE /Q∗ (Grimmond. it can be used for the scenarios described with a good degree of conﬁdence. The Bowen ratio from the model results also preceded the observations again as a result of the lack of input data for the soil moisture content and the inﬂuence of this on QE . following the reduction in Q∗ . the model has vastly improved on the performance of TAPM version 2. While these areas are likely to show the greatest increase in temperatures in 2030. The partitioning of energy was very similar for each urban density during summer. the land surface scheme did not replicate the high heat absorption ( QS /Q∗ ) by the urban fabric that was seen in the observations (Figure 6). it may not be that TAPM inaccurately represented urban heat storage. The current scenario (A) showed a mean nighttime (0200) UHI of approximately 3–4 ° C in the CBD. 28: 1943–1957 (2008) DOI: 10. This information can be used for improved planning decisions. 2000). Temperatures in other areas of Melbourne also appeared to respond signiﬁcantly to increases in housing density especially along the edge of the current urban-rural boundary. the model was only evaluated for the medium density urban class. The CBD was not warmer than the surrounding urban area. temperatures were only seen to Int. While a crude method of parameterizing the model to behave more like an urban surface was used.3 and run for eight Januaries from 1997 to 2004 to provide an ensemble average for current summertime conditions and then again for the 2030 planning scenario. model appeared to saturate (reach a maximum absorptive capacity) when increasing thermal conductivity. and direct validation was not completed on the energy balance partitioning. Temperatures away from the coast to the north and east of Port Phillip Bay showed higher values as a result of mesoscale airﬂows and a regional sea breeze. with temperatures being more uniform across the region (Figure 7(b)). a strong inversion can occur that can severely restrict turbulent mixing and inﬂuence the above canopy ﬂux measurements. The nighttime UHI reduced in its spatial variability. During winter. restricting the availability for atmospheric heating. During the night. though all sites were slightly higher than the observations.0 before the modiﬁcations were made (data not shown).2. despite the increasing thermal conductivity with urban density. it could be that the observational results over emphasize the importance of heat storage during stable wintertime conditions and is an area that requires further study. The greatest temperature increases during nighttime maximum UHI intensity (Figure 8) were seen in areas where development replaced pasture land and in new activity centres. but still showed an UHI intensity of 1–2 ° C. reducing as distance from the CBD increased (Figure 7(a)). Therefore. There is obvious scope for a speciﬁc urban parameterization in TAPM. the sensible heating fraction (QH /Q∗ ) during the summertime for the Urban (medium) density was also slightly higher than observed. On account of the slightly underestimated QS /Q∗ . the lower wind speeds reduced the inﬂuence of the regional ﬂows and the urban density more strongly controlled the development of the UHI. 1992). the 1D land surface in the model did not capture the full inﬂuence of the 3D canyon morphology on heat storage. New Zealand that under settled anti-cyclonic conditions. 2000). The modelled UHI also varied with synoptic conditions that supported maximum UHI development under conditions of anti-cyclonic highs centred just east of Melbourne. However. the areal extent of elevated temperatures expanded. which sometimes aids Urban Cool Island (UCI) development in combination with shading (Morris and Simmonds. The Bowen ratio (QH /QE ) throughout the year was well replicated compared with Urban (medium) and increased with higher urban density (Figure 6). a decrease in heat storage is seen during winter. As the observations in Melbourne calculated QS as a residual of the eddy correlation technique. During the day (1400) the current Scenario (A) screen level UHI was not as intense as at 0200. so there may be limitations in the model’s applicability to other urban density classes. This is often why above canopy temperatures are similar across an urban area during the day. While the maximum intensity of the UHI did not increase. COUTTS ET AL. 3. The modelled UHI intensity was similar in range to those previously observed in Melbourne (Morris and Simmonds. Modelling UHI intensity and the impact of Melbourne 2030 TAPM was conﬁgured as described in Section 2. Morris et al. in this case.1002/joc .. In most Northern Hemisphere energy balance studies. low wind speeds and cloudless skies (Morris and Simmonds. J. The lack of an urban canopy scheme Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society could also limit the model’s capacity to accurately replicate urban heat storage across density classes. Analysing the difference in screen level temperature between the current and Melbourne 2030 scenarios allows speciﬁc areas of signiﬁcant warming to be identiﬁed and is what urban planners are most interested in. as TAPM was replicating the partitioning of energy and meteorological parameters at the surface reasonably well in January. but rather the uncertainty may lie in the observations. Spronken-Smith et al. The model was not able to accurately replicate the partitioning of energy outside of the summer months. (2006) found in Christchurch. 2000. becoming more uniform across the urban area similar to that of the daytime UHI.1952 A. Variability was high with anomalous warmer and cooler areas seen across the metropolitan area corresponding with urban density class. M. The Melbourne 2030 scenario (B) revealed a slightly modiﬁed UHI pattern from the current scenario (A) (Figure 7(c) and (d)). 2001). as higher density sites absorb more energy and QS /Q∗ increases. Climatol.
Inland activity centres that do not feel the effects of the cooling sea breeze would especially beneﬁt from UHI mitigation measures.1002/joc . B – Melbourne 2030 planned development at 02 : 00 (c) and 14 : 00 (d). some portions of Melbourne to the west and north showed elevated temperatures following the planned development (Figure 9). mainly where development increases from low to higher densities. During the day. rather than in existing urban development. The areas of greatest temperature increase were the planned growth areas where development will replace existing natural landscapes. J. during the day a large fraction of the urban area. The planned increase in urban density through the establishment of an urban growth boundary and the development of activity centres in Melbourne will likely lead to a more intense UHI during the night. While it Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society may seem that these mean temperatures are not high. While higher nighttime temperatures from restricted nocturnal cooling in urban areas may not seem like a signiﬁcant problem.) h for each scenario: A – Current development at 02 : 00 (a) and 14 : 00 (b). Coutts et al.m.m. (2007b) in their observational study in Melbourne found that during the summer across three urban sites of varying urban density. 28: 1943–1957 (2008) DOI: 10. Initiatives that can help reduce temperature increases can be more easily incorporated into newly developing regions.com/ijoc increase to levels currently seen within the CBD. extended periods of warmer temperatures can limit nighttime recovery from daily heat stress. Spatial variability in mean screen level temperatures for the Melbourne area at 02 : 00 (2 a.wiley. actually showed a very slight decrease (largely insigniﬁcant) in temperature due to the increased heat storage limiting the amount of energy available for atmospheric heating and reducing temperatures. Therefore. Climatol. This ﬁgure is available in colour online at www.) and 14 : 00 (2 p.interscience. during periods in summer of extreme heat. temperatures can be much higher. these growth areas and new or minimally developed existing activity centres could provide excellent opportunities for UHI mitigation strategies to be put in place.URBAN PLANNING AND CLIMATE IN MELBOURNE 1953 Figure 7. all sites showed a mean daytime Bowen ratio of over 2 and the daily Bowen ratio was sometimes Int. Interestingly. while during the day this is less signiﬁcant.
1954 A.interscience. This ﬁgure is available in colour online at www. Change in mean daytime (14 : 00) screen level temperature from the current urban development. COUTTS ET AL. Change in mean nighttime (02 : 00) screen level temperature change from the current urban development. Climatol.wiley.wiley. to that proposed by the Melbourne 2030 planning strategy. Figure 8.com/ijoc Figure 9. M. 28: 1943–1957 (2008) Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society DOI: 10.interscience. Areas within the contours are statistically signiﬁcant at the 95% conﬁdence level. to that proposed by the Melbourne 2030 planning strategy.1002/joc . Areas within the contours are statistically signiﬁcant at the 95% conﬁdence level.com/ijoc Int. This ﬁgure is available in colour online at www. J.
. 2005). a comprehensive UHI mitigation strategy for Melbourne is required and it is hoped that this study will prompt the Melbourne 2030 planning group to act and encourage the implementation of UHI mitigation initiatives. 2002). 28: 1943–1957 (2008) DOI: 10.. Our analysis should persuade the development of new policies for UHI mitigation by planners. As a result. Melbourne 2030 currently notes concern for issues such as global warming and a livable city but an assessment of the impact of a more compact city on climate had not been undertaken. Int. Also.1002/joc . 2007). Urban planning measures such as energy-efﬁcient buildings and increased public transport use would help contribute to combating greenhouse gas emissions. the frequency of extreme warm days and nights has increased since 1961 (Plummer et al. Mean global temperatures over the last 100 years (1906–2005. These results demonstrate the utility of regional scale climate modelling as a tool for climate impact assessment and show the ability to determine likely climate modiﬁcations from simple land-use changes based on planning directions. but there will be an extension of warm and dry conditions over longer periods of the day as well as an extension of the seasonal exposure to unfavourable conditions along with an increased spatial extent. dry and hence unfavourable climatic conditions. This work may be opportune since the Melbourne 2030 plan is due for review in 2007. This was a result of poor moisture availability in response to water restrictions when observations were conducted (Coutts et al. 1984.18 ° C) largely as a result of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions (IPCC. Yet. and identiﬁed that continued urban development in Melbourne could lead to higher diurnal exposure to warmer temperatures. especially if water restrictions remain tight.. Some initiatives already exist that aid in reducing UHI intensity include energyefﬁcient buildings and encouraging a shift in travel from private vehicles to public transport. The use of TAPM for the Melbourne urban landscape was adequate for January. and limit the development of degraded local climates has been known for decades (Aron. 2007)) coupled with heating from further urban development will lead to further increases in urban temperatures. which will reduce anthropogenic heat emissions. existing urban climates during summer days can already be unfavourable with high Bowen ratios regularly observed across varying densities of the city (Coutts et al. 1999). 2002). unlike new urban canopy schemes. the impact of changes in urban development was not seen to increase the peak daytime temperature due to increased Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Society storage limiting the amount of sensible heating of the atmosphere. Oke. so projected global temperature rises (0. 1984. Oke. and the management of water resources (Department of Sustainability and Environment. It would be a great opportunity for the Victorian Government. During the day. any type of urban spatial conﬁguration at the neighbourhood scale could also be easily modelled. Climatol. Modelling results such as these are an excellent way to present and convey information and issues to environmental planners. The 3D nature and complexity of the urban landscape was not explicitly included in the model. 100-year linear trend) have increased by 0. In this study. As TAPM is now set up for Melbourne. 4. the effect of heat trapping and storage in the urban environment was replicated in the simulations by signiﬁcantly increasing the thermal conductivity. the model could not deliver within-canopy temperatures.74 ° C (±0. the entire Melbourne region experienced warm.2 ° C per decade for the next two decades (IPCC. 2007a).. J. Also. Conclusions Simulations of the changes in climate resulting from the proposed land cover changes identiﬁed in the directions of the Melbourne 2030 plan showed that continued increases in density would result in an increased intensity of the nighttime Melbourne UHI. Regional scale modelling of urban climate is a powerful tool and the use of TAPM as a model for use in urban planning has both beneﬁts and shortfalls. Growth areas and particular activity centres were predicted to have the greatest temperature increases. While this is good. This study has demonstrated the potential for TAPM to become a rigorous model for use in urban planning. Therefore during the summer. The concept of sustainable settlements is recognized within Melbourne 2030 with initiatives such as those under the direction of ‘A greener city’. including reducing the impacts of storm-water on bays and catchments. which could possibly be greater than the modelled temperatures in this study. However. who wish to lead by example in environmental management (Department of Sustainability and Environment. yet policy development in this area is still lacking despite calls for improvements. 2007b). Finally. Adoption of the Melbourne 2030 strategy is not likely to increase Bowen ratios across the city signiﬁcantly. Modelled screen level temperatures were also slightly underestimated during the evening and night due to an underestimation of the slow release of heat stored in the urban fabric due to complex canyon morphology (including walls).9 t CO2 ha−1 y−1 (Coutts et al. further summertime scenarios could be conducted to investigate the potential of mitigation strategies such as alterations in surface albedo or the effect of increasing vegetation cover. Planning in urban areas to ameliorate. much improvement is still required before it could be commonly used. 2007b). The increase in Bowen ratios with increasing urban density modelled in this study were not found in the observational results as evaporative ﬂuxes were very similar across all housing densities despite varying vegetation cover. Urban areas themselves are a signiﬁcant source of CO2 mostly from vehicles emissions with local annual emissions from urban Melbourne as high as 84. Operating the model for other Australian or international cities may not be feasible without some modiﬁcation of surface parameters (requiring local ﬁeld observations) or development of new parameterizations.URBAN PLANNING AND CLIMATE IN MELBOURNE 1955 in excess of 5. the Melbourne 2030 scenario (B) only accounts for climatic impacts from land cover change.
COUTTS ET AL. rather than just the monthly averages for January presented here.1956 A. Parlow E. 2003. planners and climatologists must work together utilizing their full knowledge and allowing the development of more accurate urban climate predictions. Development and evaluation of an urban parameterization scheme in the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). which is very important (and ever growing in importance). Beringer J. Marquis M. CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper No. Measuring biosphereatmosphere exchanges of biologically related gases with micrometeorological methods (in special feature: gas exchange in a new dimension). Tapper NJ. 2003. especially as the focus on extreme temperatures in urban regions grows. Coutts AM. urban airshed modeling: veriﬁcation of TAPM predictions of smog and particles in Melbourne. Coutts AM. Eliasson I. 1988. Future work could also involve coupling TAPM with a water use model such as Aquacycle (Mitchell et al. Wallace Communications for permission of the use of the communications tower for the ﬁeld observations and to Christopher Barker for assistance in setting up and maintenance of the towers and equipment. Grimmond CSB. Rotach MW. Martilli A. 2003. compute time was long and could be improved on highperformance machines. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 113: 111–158. Akylas E. Tapper NJ. Oke TR. Jin M. Australia. Bossioli E. The relationship of urban design to human health and condition. 2003. An objective urban heatstorage model and its comparison with other schemes. Manins P. A physically-based scheme for the urban energy budget in atmospheric models. Lee S. Grimmond CSB. even the best urban climate model would need to be run by those who know how to use it. Atmospheric Environment 35: 5605–5615. Atmospheric Environment 37: 1899–1910. Summary for Policymakers. Qin D. substantial resources are required to both understand and run the model. 2002. Lemonsu A. 2005. 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