Code word ³energy security´ replaces ³peak oil´ The mother of all conspiracies?

Politicians, government departments, radio and TV, newspapers, banks, consultants, industry groups, academia, professional associations etc. are consistently avoiding the term ³peak oil´. In a workshop in Parramatta on 22/11/210 I was stopped to use the PO word. Do we have a conspiracy here, is the peak oil story so bad it should not be spread? Here are some examples: 21/2/2008 MARTIN FERGUSON, RESOURCES MINISTER: Australia's got a huge challenge. We've got huge problems on the trade front, but also importantly, a real problem in terms of energy security and our economic future by 2015.

29/6/2010 MARTIN FERGUSON: At the moment it can only get worse because we¶re more and more required to import further petroleum products from overseas. And that¶s why the last thing we should do is just suspend production or exploration in Australia. Our responsibility is to actually ensure we meet our domestic requirements as best we can. No word of peak oil. The Federal government¶s oil vulnerability report is outdated by 4 years now: 29/5/2009 Critique ACIL Tasman liquid fuel vulnerability The media are creating car dream illusions: on 2/11/2010 SBS shows air cars claiming they are ³zero emissions´ without mentioning the primary energy problem 19/6/2010 M2 widening: Primary Energy Dilemma for cars

ABC TV screened this excellent documentary in May 2007: The incredible journey of oil with videos on peak oil and global warming, but has dropped the ball since then, as evidenced in this interview dated 22/11/2010:

UK appoints special envoy for climate and energy security
LEIGH SALES: You mentioned energy security earlier. How significant is the risk of war in the future over competition for energy resources? NEIL MORISETTI: I think there is always going to be a risk of conflict over resources, whether it be energy, food or water. It may be that water's perhaps more likely in the present circumstances than energy, but it can't be ruled out. And we need to recognise that the risk¶s to our secure and stable supplies of energy. SMH 23/11/2010 Better cars, less oil mean fuel tax revenue will dry up Fuel efficiency has actually NOT improved in the last years as research of the Energy Efficiency Task Force in the Prime Minister¶s office has shown.

M2 widening increases Sydney's oil vulnerability

Transurban¶s debt and cash flow problem << IEA WEO November 2010 Crude oil production is flat at best. The straight line suggests no proper modelling was done and is therefore wishful thinking. It is a hidden warning message that crude oil production will actually decline

<< fierce fights over oil: OECD must save oil which will be used by OPEC¶s and Chindia¶s growth. Australia is linked to Asia¶s growing economy on one hand but member of OECD on the other hand. We¶ll be between a rock and a hard place, with a real oil import crisis. There will be another financial shock when loans for tollways and other oil dependent infrastructure can no longer be rolled over. Next oil shock 2012 ± just when the widening of the M2 is scheduled to be completed

<< Graph from Chris Skrebowski, Energy Institute, London. The black line shows the increasing decline at 4.7% pa in existing fields, the blue line total incremental capacity from new developments. The red line is the net capacity. Where it comes close to the depletion curve there is no spare capacity and oil prices go up. In 2005, Chris correctly predicted problems after 2008. It came a bit earlier as China went on the oil market with an extra 800 kb/d in May-July 2008, for the Olympic games. I call it the Oilympic peak, which broke the camel¶s neck with $147 oil prices. Visit my website for more details. Prepared by Matt Mushalik (MIEAust, CPEng) 24//11/2010

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