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Open Source Search: Market Trends

Hadley Reynolds, IDC
Director, Search & Digital Marketplace Technologies

Perspectives on Open Source Impact on
Search Software Markets

What is happening today?
What impacts?
How do we measure them?
What are the key influence factors?
What can we expect to see going forward?

Copyright 2010 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.

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What I Will Cover
Market Context
Favorable/Unfavorable Factors
Lucene/Solr Market Impacts
Future Trends
Wrap up

© 2010 IDC 10-10 3

Google Trends for “Lucene”

E “Leaders in Enterprise Search to Speak at Lucene Revolution -- The First
Conference Dedicated to Open Source Enterprise Search”

© 2010 IDC 10-10 4

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© 2010 IDC
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Enterprise Search Market Growth
tum m ion Be S

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Bean Counting for Open Source
Software
What does “free” software cost?

!! Open source “packaged” product costs

!! Maintenance & Support

!! Subscription/Other

Where does open source “market revenue” come from?

!! Infrastructure

!! Middleware

!! Applications

!! (No advertising-based revenue or hardware-embedded $$)

!! (No economic value attribution for self-service implementations)

© 2010 IDC 10-10 7

Open Source Software Growth

$USM 9,000 40% Annual Market
J
8,000 Growth Rate
J
7,000 30%
6,000
J
5,000
J 20%
4,000 J
J
3,000
2,000 10%

1,000
0 0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

©2010 IDC

© 2010 IDC 10-10 8

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Open Source Services Growth

$USM 14,000 J 30% Annual Market
Growth Rate
12,000 J 25%
10,000
20%
J
8,000 J
J 15% !!Systems integration
!!Software deployment
6,000 J !!IS outsourcing
10% !!IT consulting
4,000 !!IT education & training

2,000 5%

0 0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

©2010 IDC

© 2010 IDC 10-10 9

Open Source Installs – by Industry
Banking/finance 68

Healthcare 57

Government/gov't contractor 53

Communications/media 51

Wholesale 51

Consumer/recreational svcs. 45

Education 39

Manufacturing 32

Transportation 31

Retail 30

Insurance 25

Utilities 22

Construction 20

Business services 16

Other 50

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Average Number of Open Source Packages
© 2009 IDC
Source: The Open Source Census
n=1,615
Average packages per machine is defined as the number of packages found divided
by the number of machines scanned.

© 2010 IDC 10-10 10

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Prevalence of Lucene
activation 93%
javamail 92%
firefox 92%

wget 62%
blat 57%

commons-lang 54%
saaj 54%
lucene 53%

prototype 53%
axis 53%

eclipse 50%
wsdl4j 48%
jldap 44%

ghostscript 43%
eclipseplugin-spellchecker 42%

xerces 40%
zlib 38%
cygwin 38%

xalan 35%
libxml2 34%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

© 2010 IDC
Source: The Open Source Census
n=1,062

© 2010 IDC 10-10 11

Lucene/Solr Advantages

!! Rapid time-to-market

!! High level, industry-competitive functionality

!! Flexibility and customization

!! Low entry-level cost

!! Technology evolving with the state of the art in
search

© 2010 IDC 10-10 12

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Lucene/Solr Disadvantages

!! Enhancements on community timetable only

!! Potentially expensive customization

!! Requirement for search development skills in-house or
ready-to-hand

!! Production functionality may trail in specific features
relative to commercial search firms

!! Maintenance/system life costs can become significant

© 2010 IDC 10-10 13

Sustainable Advantage for Lucene/Solr?

Requirements:
!! Continuing expansion of functional range of the software

!! Continuing interest from developers/contributors

!! Increasing availability of search technology expertise in
consultancies, ISVs, enterprises

© 2010 IDC 10-10 14

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Lucene Market Momentum
Installs

7,000 Downloads/day currently
10x Growth in installs: 2008-2010
Installed at 4,000 organizations
A Top-5 Apache Project

Source: Lucid Imagination

2000 2005 2009 2011+
Initial offer: Broadening “System” Functional Superior
useful core feature set packaging parity w. functions to
features commercial commercial
software options

© 2010 IDC 10-10 15

Impact on Search Markets

Enterprise Market
!! Emerging option, small revenue impact to date

!! Accelerating adoption because of recession, maturity of L/S

OEM/embedded search Market
!! Already established alternative to commercial OEM
arrangements

!! Largely responsible for significant decline in commercial OEM
revenue

!! Lucene will dominate this area from 2010 going forward

© 2010 IDC 10-10 16

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OEM Search Segment Revenue

$USM 120 - 30% Negative
Annual
100
J
- 25% Market
Growth
Rate
80 J - 20%
60 J - 15%
40 J - 10%
20 - 5%
0 0%
J
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

©2010 IDC

October 7, 2010

© 2010 IDC 10-10 17

Trends to Monitor
!!Continuing commoditization in traditional enterprise search
!!Accelerating “diaspora” of search functionality across the
application spectrum
!!Search-based applications are the growth engine going
forward
!! By definition, these will be specific to a domain or business
problem, require advanced customization/packaging

!! Many will feature “unified analytics” environments where text-
based and data-based information integrate for decisions
!!Connectors, multi-language parsers, semantic analyzers etc.
become even more important
October 7, 2010

© 2010 IDC 10-10 18

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Search-based Applications Growth
$USM 600 30% Annual
Market
500 J J Growth
Rate
J
400 20%
J
J
300 J

200 10%

100

0 0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

©2010 IDC

October 7, 2010

© 2010 IDC 10-10 19

Futures
!!Massive scale text/data processing becomes mainstream

!! Hadoop

!! Experimentation with hybrid index architectures

!! Closer integration with multi-core hardware

!!Portable

!! New form factors require new interaction models

!! Increased importance & roles for geo-spatial analytics

!!Social

!! Social network-conditioned

!!Data-driven analytics of user intent – pervasive in marketing & commerce

October 7, 2010

© 2010 IDC 10-10 20

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Wrap Up

!! Current situation: surge in market share/mind share for Lucene/
Solr & open source search projects
!! Impacts: emerging alternative in enterprises; dominant position
in OEM/ISV search decisions; increasingly central skill-set for
search professionals in development and application
implementation roles
!! Watch: emergence of an era of search-based applications
across industries, as search becomes a central interaction
metaphor in most software packages
!! Opportunities: abound for developing domain-specific search
and unified analytics applications, social, and mobile experiences
!! Futures: High performance computing models become
increasingly necessary for web-scale discovery and analytics

© 2010 IDC 10-10 21

It’s a wrap…

© 2010 IDC 10-10 22

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Questions?

Hadley Reynolds
hreynolds@idc.com
Know more about open source search at
www.lucidimagination.com

© 2010 IDC 10-10 23

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