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Geostatistics versus inverse distance squares

in ore reserves estimation: comparative case


study in copper ore body in Cyprus
K. Modis*1, S. Stavrou1, N. Terezopoulos1 and D. Vattis2
The ‘Phoenix’ copper ore body is located in Cyprus Island. Its reserves were initially estimated by
inverse distance square (IDS) algorithm. Ore extraction begun in 1996 and ever since the owner
company keeps a detailed file of blast hole samples analyses. These data are used to for a
continuous check of the validity of estimation. Even tough sampling was systematic and dense,
the results of these checks revealed small discrepancies between the ore body model and reality
and therefore it was decided to employ geostatistics to possibly improve the estimation quality
even more.
The two resulting models were compared to reality inside the exploited area and showed that
no substantial improvement occurred due to the employment of geostatistics. The above is in
agreement to recent theoretical results which state that, when the sampling density is greater than
a critical value, geostatistics and deterministic interpolation methods give similar estimations. The
‘Phoenix’ copper ore body is located in Cyprus Island. Its reserves were initially estimated by IDS
algorithm. Ore extraction begun in 1996 and ever since the owner company keeps a detailed file
of blast hole samples analyses. These data are used to for a continuous check of the validity of
estimation. Even tough sampling was systematic and dense, the results of these checks revealed
small discrepancies between the ore body model and reality and therefore it was decided to
employ geostatistics to possibly improve the estimation quality even more. The two resulting
models were compared to reality inside the exploited area and showed that no substantial
improvement occurred due to the employment of geostatistics. The above is in agreement to
recent theoretical results which state that, when the sampling density is greater than a critical
value, geostatistics and deterministic interpolation methods give similar estimations.
Keywords: Geostatistics, Inverse distance squares method, Ore reserves estimation, Sampling density

Introduction It was only recently7,10 that theoretical study gave


solid background to these preliminary results. More
Various attempts have been made in the past in order to specifically, it was shown that most of the common
compare geostatistics to other conventional methods random function models described by a covariance or
(mainly inverse distance square (IDS)) for ore reserves variogram function with an influence range a, are
estimation, as described in Ref. 3. Some of them, in approximately band limited, meaning that they have a
which the diamond drill hole spacing was sparse, limited capacity for change over a certain area. This, in
reported better estimates with the kriging technique as turn, assigns these models the important property that
for example in Ref. 2. Others, in cases where the they can be totally reconstructed from their samples,
sampling was more intensive,5 found no substantial provided that the sampling density is grater than a
difference between geostatistics and conventional algo- critical value. This critical sampling lag (called the
rithms. Nevertheless, it was generally accepted),3 even Nyquist interval) equals Ds5a/2.7 In other words, if the
though not scientifically proven, that when the explora- structural analysis of the ore body reveals an underlying
tory drilling is dense and systematic, all methodologies structure with a certain range of influence, then the
give acceptable and more or less similar estimates.
optimum exploratory grid size is determined to half the
1
School of Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, National Technical
value of this range.
University of Athens, Greece Further elaboration of the above results10 shows that,
2
Hellenic Copper Mines Ltd, Greece when sampling is denser than the critical value, simple
*Corresponding author, email Kmodis@mail.ntua.gr interpolation techniques like linear, bilinear, or bicubic

ß 2008 Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining


Published by Maney on behalf of the Institute
Received 28 April 2007; accepted 6 August 2007
48 DOI 10.1179/174328607X228866 Mining Technology 2008 VOL 117 NO 1
Modis et al. Comparative case study in copper ore body in Cyprus

3 Digitised surface of mine

1 Map of Cyprus Island shaped injections of intensively altered high pyrite


content forms. The borders of these pyritised lavas are
algorithms can be used with equally accurate results to characterised by the presence of hematite and traces of
more sophisticated procedures, like geostatistics. On the unaltered basaltic lavas. The mineralisation is of
contrary, when sampling gets sparse and therefore hydrothermal type and was formed by metalliferous
deterministic methods become less accurate, stochastic fluids that followed the discontinuities of the rock mass,
algorithms with minimum estimation error are a much usually around the injections of pyritised lavas.
better option. Examples of application of the above The most frequently encountered minerals are those
theoretical results can be found in Ref. 8 or Ref. 9. of the concentration zone, usually non-oxidised copper
and pyrite. The sulphur content is low (0?5–5?0%) and
well formed zones of malachite are also frequent.
‘Phoenix’ copper ore body The geological ore reserves are estimated to
The ‘Phoenix’ copper ore body is located in Cyprus 20 000 000 ton with 0?4% average copper content.1
Island and is being exploited since 1996 by the Hellenic Another important characteristic of the mineralisation
Copper Mines Ltd (HCM). Hellenic Copper Mines Ltd is the presence of gold in the silicified cap of the ore
was founded in 1994, as a subsidiary of Hellenic Mining body.
Company, which held the mine exploitation rights since The Phoenix ore body is an inverted cone with a base
1976. The company holds a long term mine exploitation of 7506450 m extended to a maximum of 220 m in
project, including extended geological investigation in depth.11 The ore is extracted with the application of
order to reveal additional ore reserves, since the area is open pit mining method in a closed excavation.2,3 The
considered promising. The HCM hydrometallurgical access to the ore is effected through a network of earth
plant, first of its kind in Europe, has great impact in the haul roads joining the stopes to the heap areas and the
development of mining industry in Cyprus. The ore mineral processing plant. The ore is selectively extracted
body and the hydrometallurgical plant are located in with the application of controlled blasting. The purpose
Skouriotissa area (Fig. 1), 50 km west of Nicosia, the of blasting is the relaxation of the rock mass, which is
capital of Cyprus, near the roots of Troodos Mountain, subsequently extracted and transported by CAT 375B
while the company’s headquarters are located in Nicosia. and O&K RH30 loaders and CAT 773B & C and CAT
From the geological point of view, the mineralisation 777C mine trucks.
belongs to the well known metalliferous ophiolithic The beneficiation of high grade (30–40%Cu) ore is
complex of Troodos Mountain. According to the performed in 6 m high heaps, after crushing and
exploitation program of the mine, a total of 26 stacking. The dissolution of copper from the ore is
106–36106 ton ore and 26106 ton burdens are to be helped by the addition of sulphuric acid and the
extracted each year. After extraction, the ore is fed to the existence of natural bacteria. The low grade ore is also
nearby hydrometallurgical plant for further processing. leached without any treatment in 8 m height heaps.
The final product is 99?999% copper. The pregnant liquor solution is treated in the solvent
The mineralisation belongs to the well known metal- extraction plant and, finally, copper is recovered by the
liferous ophiolithic complex of Troodos Mountain. electrowinning process.
According to the currently accepted theory, the forma- The estimation of ore reserves was initially carried out
tion of all sulphuric ore bodies in Cyprus is closely with the application of the IDS algorithm. Ore extrac-
related to tectonic grabens.6 tion begun in 1996 and ever since the company keeps a
The ore body is located between altered basaltic detailed file of blast hole samples analyses in a 4 m
pillow lavas of the upper horizon. The lavas are mainly square grid. These data are used for grade control
of the low pyrite content form, partly interrupted by lens during mining and for a continuous check of the validity
of estimation. The results of these checks revealed some
discrepancies between ore body model and reality.
Owing to these deviations, the company decided to test
whether the application of geostatistics as an alternative
method would lead to improved estimations.

Structural analysis of ore body


A total of 325 drill holes containing 24 528 samples of
2 View of mine 1?5 m average length were employed for the estimation

Mining Technology 2008 VOL 117 NO 1 49


Modis et al. Comparative case study in copper ore body in Cyprus

6 Geometry of block model

Five experimental variograms were calculated in the


following directions: north-south, east-west, northeast-
4 Available drill holes and block model area southwest, northwest-southeast and down the hole
(Fig. 5). A close examination of these variograms reveals
a non-random spatial distribution of copper content,
since nugget effect is practically zero. Isotropy is also
evident in all directions. Finally, a spherical scheme with
a sill Co50?15%Cu2 and a range of influence a545 m
was fitted to the experimental data. The critical sampling
lag is therefore, according to the results presented briefly
in the introduction, Ds5a/2522?5 m. The important
thing here is that the average sampling lag (20 m) is
smaller than the critical one, meaning that the available
data are enough for producing an accurate model of the
ore body.

Ore reserves estimation


For obvious reasons, the estimation of ore reserves
was carried out within the same framework and
accepting the same geometry as in the previous case of
5 Experimental variograms and fitted model IDS method.12 The unit block size was 1061063 m.
The overall model is a 90066006350 m horizontal
of ore reserves. The drill holes were vertical, their lengths parallelepiped with centre coordinates -39 350E,
varying from 30 to 600 m. They were located in a mostly 10 200N and 175 m altimeter (Figs 6 and 7). Each
square grid of 20620 m (Fig. 4). The samples were block is assigned its centre coordinates, its estimated
analysed for copper and sulphur content and also for average copper content and the number of samples used
solubility in sulphuric acid. for the estimation.

7 Model of exploited area

50 Mining Technology 2008 VOL 117 NO 1


Modis et al. Comparative case study in copper ore body in Cyprus

9 Correlation graph between models and reality

not significant and IDS was selected for ease of


calculations.
For a first comparative view of the accuracy of the
two methods, the average copper content on each bench
was calculated by use of Kriging and IDS separately and
8 Comparison between two models and reality
compared to the ‘reality’ results based on blast hole
samples. Figure 8 summarises the above.
The average copper value of each block was estimated It is apparent that:
by the use of Ordinary Kriging algorithm.4 The samples (i) both methods have a smoothing effect on the
used for the evaluation of each block content were spatial distribution of copper content
selected through an octant ellipsoidal search strategy (ii) both methods produce similar estimations.
with maximum search distance 50 m on the horizontal A more accurate representation of the correlation
plane and 15 on the vertical. The maximum accepted between each model to reality is produced by plotting
number of samples was 48 and the minimum six. the average copper content at each bench calculated by
both methods, as a function of real values. This graph is
Comparison of IDS and kriging results to shown in Fig. 9. It is easily seen that the two lines are
very close to each other, with the line fitted to the
reality Kriging results being slightly closer to the bisector of the
In order to characterise each block before its extraction, xy angle. This shows that the geostatistical model might
a composite sample has been taken from four 3?6 m be considered as marginally better than the IDS one.
blast holes bored in a 4 m square pattern inside the Going further from comparing the average values of
block. As stated earlier, the company keeps a detailed the Kriging and IDS algorithms on large areas, the
file of blast hole samples analyses. The comparison validity of local estimations on the size of a selective
between the results of IDS and Kriging to reality was mining unit is of crucial interest in the exploitation
carried out based on the samples taken between 1998 process. In order to check the local estimations of the
and 2003 from altitude z248 to z171. A total of 24917 two algorithms it is necessary to compare the maps
samples from 90 000 blast holes were available for the produced by each model on each bench elevation. The
study. In this already exploited area, a new block model results of this comparison show that geostatistics, even
was created and the copper value of each block was though not substantially rewarding, provides a margin-
estimated based on the surrounding blast hole samples ally better estimation of local variations of copper
using the IDS method. For the purposes of the present content, as seen for example in Figs. 10 and 11.
paper, this model is considered as reality, since intensive The failure to obtaining a substantial improvement
sampling ensures high degree of accuracy. Also, it is for in the accuracy of estimations after the application
the same reason why the estimation method is of geostatistics in the case of Phoenix ore body is due to:

10 Comparative intersections at Z5z225

Mining Technology 2008 VOL 117 NO 1 51


Modis et al. Comparative case study in copper ore body in Cyprus

11 Comparative intersections at Z5z189

(i) the intensive sampling (over the critical range), York, American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum
which causes the estimations of both methods to Engineers.
3. M. David: in ‘Computer methods for the 80s in the
converge mineral industry’, (ed. A. Weiss), 170–189; 1979, New York,
(ii) the possible existence of truncation and other American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum
errors due to the conversion of coordinates of Engineers.
older drillhole sample locations from the Anglo- 4. A. G. Journel and C. J. Huijbregts: ‘Mining geostatistics’; 1978,
Saxon to metric system equivalents. London, Academic Press.
5. H. P. Knudsen, Y. C. Ki and E. Mueller: Min. Eng., 1978, 30, (1),
54–58.
Conclusions 6. G. Konstantinou, I. Pangidis, K. Xenofontos, S. Afrodisis, P.
Michaieidis and S. Kramvis: ‘The geology of Cyprus’, Bulletin No.
The application of geostatistics does not result to a 10, Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and the
substantial improvement in the accuracy of estimation of Environment, Nicosia, 1997 (in Greek).
the copper content spatial distribution, when compared 7. K. Modis and K. Papaodysseus: Mathem. Geol., 2006, 38, (8), 489–
to the IDS method. This is evident either with immediate 501.
comparison of the produced maps, or through the fitted 8. K. Modis, G. Papantonopoulos and C. Roumpos: Proc. 2nd Int.
Conf. on ‘Advances in mineral resources management and
lines in the estimated to real values graph.
environmental geotechnology’, (eds. Z. Agioutandis and
The fact that the two methods produce similar results K. Komnitsas), Tech. Univ. of Crete, Heliotopos Ltd, 163–175;
is due to the fact that the sampling density is grater than 2006, Hania.
the critical value which can be calculated from the range 9. K. Modis and K. Komnitsas: Proc. IMWA 2007, Cagliari, Italy,
of influence of the samples. May 2007, IMWA.
The small differences between both models and reality 10. K. Modis, G. Papantonopoulos, K. Komnitsas and
K. Papaodysseus: ‘Mapping optimization based on sampling size
are believed to be due to errors during the conversion of in earth related and environmental phenomena’, in ‘Stochastic
coordinates of older drillhole sample locations from the environmental research and risk assessment’; 2007, New York,
Anglo-Saxon to metric system. Springer.
11. D. Vattis, N. G. Adamides, N. Messios and M. Triandafyllou:
References ‘Phoenix orebody’, Internal report, Hellenic Copper Mines Ltd,
Nicosia, 2000.
1. N. G. Adamides: ‘The geology of Phoenix with an estimate of available 12. K. Xydas, D. Vattis, K. Georgaki-Ilia, V. Lamprou and
resource’, Internal Report, Hellenic Copper Mines Ltd, Nicosia, 2001. M. Triandafyllou: ‘The use of information theory for the design
2. M. P. Barnes: ‘Mineral inventory versus production planning case of an intensive excavation program at the Phoenix copper deposit
study – Sacaton Mine, Arizona’, Proc. 14th Symp. on ‘Application in Cyprus’, Proc. 3rd Hellenic Conf. on ‘The mineral wealth’,
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