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Implications of Possible United States Withdrawal from Afghanistan on the South Asian

Militant Landscape
Author(s): Abdul Basit and Sara Mahmood
Source: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses , Vol. 11, No. 4 (April 2019), pp. 20-25
Published by: International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research

Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/26631534

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Implications of Possible US Withdrawal from Afghanistan on the South Asian Militant Landscape

Implications of Possible United States


Withdrawal from Afghanistan on the
South Asian Militant Landscape
Abdul Basit and Sara Mahmood
Synopsis hunt Al-Qaeda (AQ) remnants in the region
around the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. In
South Asia has one of the highest order to ensure smooth and uninterrupted
concentrations of jihadist groups in the world, Pakistani cooperation, among other things,
including some of the most wanted groups by the US had facilitated a border ceasefire
the United States (US). Ahead of the expected agreement between India and Pakistan in
US withdrawal from Afghanistan, incidents 2003.2 This agreement required Pakistan to
such as the Pulwama suicide attack by curb cross-border terrorism in Kashmir and
Pakistan-based Kashmir-focused militant take action against India-focused militant
group, Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), on India’s groups on its soil in return for normalisation of
Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in relations with India.
Indian-administered Kashmir warrant closer
scrutiny on the evolution of the South Asian Now that the US is negotiating with the Afghan
militant landscape. This study argues that US Taliban to politically terminate the war and
withdrawal from Afghanistan may contribute withdraw from Afghanistan, incidents like the
to a possible uptick of violence in Kashmir, Pulwama attack underscore future security
precipitating sporadic India-Pakistan tensions, challenges that could emanate from a
cross-border skirmishes and the return of plethora of local, regional and global terrorist
Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) to the groups operating in and out of the region.
region. Further, religiously-inspired Several factors such as porous borders,
radicalisation and violent-extremism could ungoverned spaces, easy availability of
increase, necessitating joint frameworks for weapons, growing religious polarisation,
actions relating to the prevention and unemployment and inter-state rivalries
countering of violent extremism (P/CVE) at involving proxy-wars and geo-political
the regional level. competition provide terrorist groups with a
conducive environment to expand and
Introduction increase their activities.

The Pulwama suicide attack by JeM not only This article examines the significance of the
killed more than 40 CRPF personnel in Pulwama attack against the backdrop of
Kashmir, it also brought India and Pakistan to possible US exit from Afghanistan and the
the brink of war.1 The high-profile attack has implications for the South Asian militant
once again revived the concerns of a more landscape. It argues that as the South Asian
lethal and dangerous militant landscape in militant landscape becomes more lethal and
South Asia after the expected US withdrawal complex in a post-US Afghanistan, it could
from Afghanistan. Following its intervention in precipitate a limited war between India and
Afghanistan in 2001, the US forged a counter- Pakistan over Kashmir. This could result in a
terrorism alliance with Pakistan to track and rise of violent-extremism, creating new

1Fayaz Bukhari, “Kashmir Car Bomb Kills 44; India 2Hari Kumar, “India and Pakistan Forces Agree to
Demands Pakistan Act Against Militants,” Reuters, Cease-Fire in Kashmir,” New York Times, November
February 14, 2019, 26, 2003,
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india- https://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/26/world/indian-
kashmir/kashmir-car-bomb-kills-44-india-demands- and-pakistani-forces-agree-to-cease-fire-in-
pakistan-act-against-militants-idUSKCN1Q31PL. kashmir.html.

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Implications of Possible US Withdrawal from Afghanistan on the South Asian Militant Landscape

recruitment and funding opportunities for brink of war. This is extremely critical as this
militant groups. Moreover, the absence of joint is the second time that JeM has successfully
counter-terrorism and violent-extremism exploited the inter-state rivalry between India
frameworks in South Asia will allow these and Pakistan, escalating tensions between
groups to grow and further entrench the two.
themselves in different conflict spots in the
region. Finally, Indian retaliation was different in
comparison to the past. For the first time in
Why is the Pulwama Attack Significant? five decades, Indian Air Force (IAF) jets came
deep inside mainland Pakistan to target a JeM
As a signature JeM attack, the Pulwama training camp. Located in the Balakot district
attack is significant for four reasons. First, the in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province,
timing is instructive. Occurring before US Pakistan’s redline was challenged.6 By doing
withdrawal from Afghanistan, it indicates a so, India has indicated its readiness to use
revival and return of groups like JeM to retaliatory and pre-emptive strikes against
Kashmir, its old theatre of conflict. After lying terrorist hideouts in mainland Pakistan in the
low for several years, JeM returned to Indian future. The Pakistani airstrikes in Kashmir in
Kashmir with the Pathankot airbase attack in retaliation to the IAF strikes showed that within
2016. Since then, it has steadily increased its two days of the Pulwama attack, both
presence and activities in Kashmir. After countries were quickly moving up the
witnessing a dip in attacks between 2008 and escalatory ladder.7 This will have far-reaching
2013, violence and militant recruitment have consequences for strategic stability and the
spiked in Kashmir since 2015. The number of balance of power in South Asia.
militants killed in Kashmir rose from 130 in
2016 to 200 in 2017 and 240 in 2018. In the The Complex and Lethal South Asian
first two months of 2019, 31 militants have Militant Landscape
been killed in Kashmir.3
According to Aminesh Roul, over 100 Islamist
Second, it was a high-profile terrorist attack terrorist groups of various sizes, strengths,
which had resulted in mass casualties. By political agendas and ideological leanings
ramming an explosive-laden vehicle in the operate in South Asia.8 A majority of these
CRPF vehicle-convoy in a highly militarised groups are active with the exception of a few
zone, JeM has demonstrated its ability to find which have been neutralised or have become
gaps in security arrangements and displayed dormant. Some of the world’s most notorious
high-level expertise in assembling a Vehicle- and dangerous jihadist groups such as AQ,
borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED).4 Islamic State of Khorasan (ISK), the Haqqani
As the attack drew large-scale media Network, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP),
coverage, JeM successfully received much Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and JeM, among
publicity from the media. others, operate in and out of the Afghanistan-
Pakistan region. Since the Afghan Jihad in the
Third, the Pulwama attack is similar to the 1980s, these groups have co-existed,
2001 Indian Parliament attack5, which cooperated and competed with each other.9
likewise brought India and Pakistan to the Given their ideological agendas, these groups

3 Amjed Javed, “Kashmir: Aftermath of Pulwama 568.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_mediu


Attack,” Modern Diplomacy, February 16, 2019, m=text&utm_campaign=cppst.
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2019/02/16/kashmir- 7 Mansoor Ahmed and Maimuna Ashraf, “India and

aftermath-of-pulwama-attack/. Pakistan Crisis Means New Arms Race,” National


4 Ayesha Siddiqa, “Jaish-e-Mohammad: Under the Interest, April 2, 2019,
Hood?” The Diplomat, March 13, 2019, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/india-and-
https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/jaish-e-mohammed- pakistans-crisis-means-new-arms-race-50467.
under-the-hood/. 8 Animesh Roul, “South Asia: Hotbed of Islamist
5 In December 2001, members of Lashkar-e-Taiba Terrorism,” National Bureau of Asian Research,
and Jaish-e-Mohammed targeted the Parliament August 1, 2008.
House in Delhi and killed 14 people. This attack led 9 Maria Galperin Donnelly, “Foreign Fighters in

to escalations of tensions and a stand-off between History,” Center for Strategic and International
India and Pakistan between 2001 to 2002. Studies,
6 “Indian Air Force Jets Crossed Loc, Claims http://foreignfighters.csis.org/history_foreign_fighter_
Pakistan,” Times of India, February 26, 2019, project.pdf.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/68161

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Implications of Possible US Withdrawal from Afghanistan on the South Asian Militant Landscape

can be categorised into three broad in 2001, several jihadist groups abandoned
categories: local, regional and global. their primary agendas and sent their fighters
However, in a fluid operational environment to Afghanistan to help the Afghan Taliban fight
with changing conflict ecologies, these lines the US. Some factions of these groups also
get blurred. Hence, these groups have joined hands with various AQ-linked groups,
witnessed splintering, mergers, re-splitting such as Jandullah, Punjabi Taliban and the
and re-mergers amidst an evolving Indian Mujahedeen (IM).11 In a post-US
geopolitical environment that points to a Afghanistan, these groups will use
complex and lethal threat landscape. These Afghanistan as a launch pad to regroup and
groups have conducted attacks against relaunch themselves in different local conflicts
governments, security forces and civilians. A in South Asia with a new zeal. They will exploit
majority of the attacks that targeted civilians existing communal and sectarian fault-lines,
have focused on minority religious groups, inter and intra-state rivalries for recruitment
such as Christians, and sectarian minorities, and amplify their propaganda, facilitated by
such as Shia Muslims. social media tools and platforms.
Consequently, the militant landscape in parts
Implications of South Asia will become more complex with
further cross-border linkages and the
Increased Insecurity and Militancy formation of new allegiances.

The close linkages and shifting allegiances In December 2018, former Director General of
between different groups across Afghanistan, Police for Jammu and Kashmir, Rajendra
Pakistan and India underscore the volatility of Kumar, stated that US withdrawal from
the terrorist landscape. Broadly, a possible Afghanistan will have significant implications
US exit from Afghanistan will create a new in Kashmir, leading local terrorist and
victory narrative for the Taliban. Since the insurgent groups to feel emboldened.12 In
appointment of Ashraf Ghani as President in terms of their narratives, terrorist actors in
2014, 45,000 security personnel have been Kashmir could perceive US withdrawal as a
killed in attacks across the country.10 victory over the kuffar (infidel) that can be
Following the impending departure of US replicated locally against India. In this case,
forces from Afghanistan, related violence the Pulwama attack is critical as it not only
between warring tribes, Taliban factions and drew substantial attention from both India and
other militant groups is likely to continue. Pakistan, but also possibly from other terrorist
Moreover, the victory narrative will embolden groups in the region. The capability of JeM to
South Asian jihadist groups whereby they perpetrate a large-scale attack targeting the
could begin to expect similar gains in their Indian security forces makes the group an
specific areas or countries of operations. In attractive ally for other militant groups. Hence,
addition, militant groups specifically linked to the possibility of Kashmiri insurgent groups
the Afghan Taliban will focus on expanding forging alliances with the Taliban cannot be
their operations, opening up fresh recruitment discounted. Other sources have also claimed
and funding opportunities. that after the US withdrawal, jihadists could
most likely be redirected to wage jihad in
If this were to happen, it will be a déjà vu of Kashmir, framing it as the most important
the late 1980s when Afghan Mujahedeen conflict zone in the region where Muslims are
groups defeated the former Soviet Union. actively facing violence from the state.13
Following the US intervention in Afghanistan

10 Hekmat Khalil Karzai, “The Afghan Government 12 “US Withdrawal From Afghan Will Have
Can’t Make Peace With the Taliban on Its Own,” Implications In Kashmir,” Financial Express (India),
Foreign Policy, April 2, 2019, December 25, 2018,
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/02/the-afghan- https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/us-
government-cant-make-peace-with-the-taliban-on- withdrawal-from-afghan-will-have-implications-in-
its-own/. kashmir-says-former-jk-dgp-k-rajendra-
11 Lauren McNally and Marvin Weinbaum, “A kumar/1424394/.
Resilient Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan,” 13 Vinay Kaura, “Pulwama Attack Ominous Sign For

Middle East Institute (Policy Focused Series), Valley As US Withdrawal From Afghanistan May
January 2016, Mean Advantage Pakistan,” First Post, February 15,
https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/files/publications/P 2019, https://www.firstpost.com/india/pulwama-
F18_Weinbaum_AQinAFPAK_web_1.pdf. attack-ominous-sign-for-valley-as-us-withdrawal-

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Implications of Possible US Withdrawal from Afghanistan on the South Asian Militant Landscape

Overall, the complex and lethal threat Pakistani forces.15 More recently, Kashmir
landscape in South Asia is likely to witness has also seen a rise in online propaganda and
more activity and violence after a US graffiti, which touts Kashmir as the ‘University
withdrawal with the possibility of the Taliban of Jihad’.16 Insurgent groups in Kashmir, such
coming to power in Afghanistan. This will have as Hizbul Mujahedeen, are inward-looking
an impact in terms of violence and the and may avoid de-legitimising their cause by
allegiances of terrorist groups on the ground, publicly linking themselves to ISK. However,
specifically in India and Pakistan. In this defections, particularly from the youth and the
regard, Islamic State (IS) has been looking to ranks of Kashmiri jihad-oriented groups, are a
increase its visibility in the Afghanistan- possibility.
Pakistan region. After losing most of its
territory in Iraq and Syria, IS is searching for Overall, the absence of US presence on the
opportunities to expand elsewhere. In fact, IS’ ground, coupled with diminished capabilities
local brand for South Asia – Islamic State of the ANA, could permit Taliban, AQ, ISK and
Khorasan (ISK) - has established a physical other regional groups and affiliates to
stronghold in key conflict-ridden parts of reorganise and regroup, leading to an
Afghanistan. The latter provides the ideal increase in violence. In addition, the cross-
sanctuary given: (i) the impending US border threat of terrorism between Pakistan
withdrawal; (ii) presence of large ungoverned and Afghanistan and India and Pakistan is
spaces; and (iii) existing ISK networks and likely to continue unabated in the light of the
presence. Despite being targeted by the Pulwama attack and US withdrawal. This is
Taliban and the US-backed Afghan National especially important, considering that cross-
Army (ANA), ISK has maintained an active border movements of terrorists and militants
presence since its formation in January 2015. have promoted the creation of alliances,
The group has conducted deadly large-scale bonds and transfer of weapons between
terrorist attacks in Kabul and other parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.
Afghanistan. While clashes between ISK and
the Taliban will continue in Afghanistan, the Proxy Battles in Geopolitical Sphere
group will be forced to look outside the country
to expand its operations and linkages. It Reports have revealed that the Taliban
already has an active presence in Pakistan currently control more territory now than they
through alliances with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi al- did during the start of the war in 2001.17 A
Alami (LeJ-A) and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) in report to the US Congress by Special
particular.14 Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction
(SIGAR) in 2018 confirmed that Taliban
In light of the Pulwama attack, ISK could control has risen from 7% to 12.5% across
consider expanding into Kashmir and forging districts in Afghanistan.18 Considering that US
alliances with militants in the valley to gain withdrawal is likely to advantage the Taliban,
visibility. IS has spoken about Kashmir and any increase in Taliban influence and control
the persecution of Muslims in the valley in the would not just negatively impact local security
past. In 2016, IS declared its intentions to and stability in Afghanistan, but have far-
expand into Kashmir to liberate the Muslims reaching consequences in terms of militancy
from the control of the Indian state. In 2017, and bilateral ties for India and Pakistan.
the group’s Telegram channel, Al-Qaraar, Historically, India and Pakistan have fought
started a campaign that focused on the towards opposing ends, placing their rivalry
liberation of Kashmir, by calling for local with each other as a key determinant of their
jihadists to conduct attacks against Indian and respective policies concerning Afghanistan.

from-afghanistan-may-mean-advantage-pakistan- 2018, https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/is-is-


6093301.html. really-a-threat-in-kashmir-44547/.
14 Amira Jadoon, “Allied and Lethal: Islamic State 16 Ibid.

Khorasan’s Network and Organizational Capacity in 17 “Why is Afghanistan More Dangerous than Ever,”

Afghanistan and Pakistan,” Combating Terrorism BBC, September 14, 2018,


Centre Report, December 3, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45507560.
https://ctc.usma.edu/allied-lethal-islamic-state- 18 Kara Fox, “Taliban Control of Afghanistan on the

khorasans-network-organizational-capacity- Rise,” CNN, November 8, 2018,


afghanistan-pakistan/. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/01/middleeast/afgha
15 Victoria Elms, “Is IS Really A Threat In Kashmir?” nistan-report-taliban-gains-control-intl/index.html.
Observer Research Foundation, September 27,

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Implications of Possible US Withdrawal from Afghanistan on the South Asian Militant Landscape

as well. For instance, alleged Indian support


To prevent being encircled by India at one end for the active separatist insurgency in the
and an India-backed government at the other, Pakistani province of Balochistan reflects
Pakistan has implemented its conception of India’s continuing engagement in a proxy war.
‘strategic depth’19- which sought to support The alleged Indian support for Baloch
and provide safe-haven to Afghan Taliban insurgency gained credence after Kulbushan
members and leadership. In comparison, Jadhav, an Indian spy, was captured by
India’s primary goal in Afghanistan was to Pakistani authorities in Balochistan province
counteract Pakistan’s influence. In the 1990s, in 2016.22 In this scenario, local insurgent
this meant supporting the Northern Alliance groups that oppose the Pakistani state and
Group, which was anti-Taliban, and has now Chinese interests in the province are likely to
extended to supporting and providing engage in violence, especially considering the
developmental assistance to the US-backed November 2018 attack by the Baloch
government in the country.20 Liberation Army (BLA) which killed four people
in Karachi.23
Since August 2017, the US’ fight-to-win
Afghan policy had included India, and focused On its part, Pakistan’s historical funding and
on targeting and eliminating terrorist support for terrorist outfits, operating within its
sanctuaries. In this approach, the US had territory, that target Kashmir, including LeT
targeted Pakistan, pointing out that the and JeM, have not shown signs of
country was not doing enough to eliminate diminishing. This has permitted India to frame
terrorist strongholds in its territory and asking attacks in its territory as being allegedly
it to denounce its ‘Good Taliban, Bad Taliban’ directed by the Pakistani state.24 Pakistani
approach. The possibility of the Afghan authorities have not adequately dealt with LeT
Taliban gaining power at the expense of the leader Hafiz Saeed and JeM leader Masood
US-backed Afghan government, with the latter Azhar. Saeed has been placed on house
decreasing in influence and legitimacy, will arrest multiple times, but has been
most likely embolden Pakistan, with the subsequently released and lives freely in
country likely to be more open in its support of Pakistan.25 Recent backing by China, as seen
the Taliban.21 In this case, India will find it in the blocking of the UN Security Council
difficult to influence the situation on the ground resolution to designate Masood Azhar as a
in the absence of the US in Afghanistan. terrorist, also indicates that Pakistan will
Locally, India will face growing pressures to continue to support the Kashmir insurgency.
engage the Taliban, resulting in the
continuation of a proxy battle between the two To meaningfully reign in the triggers of
rivals in Afghanistan. insecurity within the region in the aftermath of
Pulwama and the impending US withdrawal,
In light of the Pulwama attack and an India and Pakistan should explore more
impending US withdrawal, both countries will effective platforms and forums for security
increasingly engage in heightened sub- cooperation and collaboration, either
conventional warfare outside of Afghanistan bilaterally or in conjunction with other

19 In military terms, this concept refers to the https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/what-the-


distance between the frontlines of the battlefield and kulbhushan-jadhav-saga-reveals-about-india-and-
the key centres of a country – capital cities and pakistans-balochistan-problems/.
industrial centres. 23 Mir Shehbaz Khetran, “Indian Interference in
20 Avinash Paliwal, “New Alignments, Old Battlefield: Balochistan: Analysing the Evidence and
Revisiting India’s Role In Afghanistan,” Carnegie Implications for Pakistan,” Institute of Strategic
India, June 2017, Studies 37, no. 3 (2017).
https://carnegieendowment.org/files/6.15.2017_Paliw 24 Moeed Yusuf, “How the India-Pakistan Conflict

al_Afghanistan_Web.pdf. Leaves Great Powers Powerless,” Foreign Policy,


21 James Dobbins, Jason H. Campbell, Sean Mann December 10, 2018,
and Laurel E. Miller, “Consequences of a Precipitous https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/10/954587-india-
U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan,” RAND, January pakistan-mumbai-terror/.
2019, 25 “Pakistan reimposes ban on Islamist Charities

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspe Linked to Hafiz Saeed,” Channel News Asia,


ctives/PE300/PE326/RAND_PE326.pdf. February 22, 2019,
22 Ahsan Butt, “What the Kulbhushan Jadhav Saga https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/pakista
Reveals About India and Pakistan’s Balochistan n-reimposes-ban-on-islamist-charities-linked-to-
Problems,” The Diplomat, January 11, 2018, hafiz-saeed-11279836.

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Implications of Possible US Withdrawal from Afghanistan on the South Asian Militant Landscape

interested organisations. South Asia has very


few regional mechanisms to counter and
prevent terrorism, as the South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC) has largely remained ineffective due
to India-Pakistan rivalry. Over its 30-year
history, SAARC has only managed to conduct
18 summit meetings (that were meant to be
held annually), due to bilateral tensions
between India and Pakistan.26 As such,
sharing of information and intelligence, joint
training programs, patrolling and operations
between the neighbouring countries are rare.
Without India-Pakistan cooperation, any such
initiatives will remain elusive. To move
towards better security and diplomatic
relations, both countries will have to
dispassionately discuss the security
challenges posed by the various terrorist
groups operating in the region.

Abdul Basit is an Associate Research Fellow


and Sara Mahmood is a Senior Analyst with
the International Centre for Political Violence
and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), a
constituent of the S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies (RSIS), Singapore. They
can be reached at isabasit@ntu.edu.sg and
issmahmood@ntu.edu.sg respectively.

26Zahid Shahab Ahmed, “Can SAARC Survive India https://nationalinterest.org/feature/can-saarc-survive-


and Pakistan's Squabbles?” National Interest, india-pakistans-squabbles-17556.
September 1, 2016,

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