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C 161 E/48 Official Journal of the European Union EN 10.7.

2003

(2003/C 161 E/050) WRITTEN QUESTION E-2867/02


by Christopher Huhne (ELDR) to the Commission

(11 October 2002)

Subject: Growth forecasting record

1. Will the Commission give the forecast (or forecasts) made by each Member State for their nominal
growth rate (real growth and GDP deflator) in the ensuing financial year for each year of the last ten years?

2. Will the Commission also show the subsequent outturn, and compute for each Member State an
average difference between forecast and outturn?

Will the Commission provide a short commentary on the lessons if any from this exercise?

(2003/C 161 E/051) WRITTEN QUESTION E-2868/02


by Christopher Huhne (ELDR) to the Commission

(11 October 2002)

Subject: Growth forecasting record

1. Will the Commission give the forecast (or forecasts) made by each Member State for their real
growth rate of GDP in the ensuing financial year for each year of the last ten years?

2. Will the Commission also show the consensus forecast of independent forecasters (for example as
published by Consensus economics) at the time of the publication of the official forecast, and compute for
each Member State an average difference between official forecast and independent forecast?

Will the Commission provide a short commentary on the lessons if any from this exercise?

Joint answer
to Written Questions E-2865/02, E-2866/02, E-2867/02 and E-2868/02
given by Mr Solbes Mira on behalf of the Commission

(4 November 2002)

The Commission does not systematically collect the various forecasts made during the year by Member
States for growth and budget balances. It is therefore also difficult to assess their forecast accuracy.

Very much attention is paid to the growth and budgetary projections included in the Stability and
Convergence Programmes which the Member States submit to the Commission in accordance with Council
Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary
positions and the surveillance and co-ordination of economic policies (1). These projections are assessed in
the light of the Commission’s own view on the economic situation and outlook, but also of those provided
by other international and private entities.

A comprehensive study of the track record of the Commission forecasts is, however, available as an
Economic Paper of the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, published in October 1999:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/publications/economic_papers/economicpapers137_en.htm

(1) OJ L 209, 2.8.1997.