You are on page 1of 24

General Memorandum of Information

ETHANOL MEGA-PROJECT IN PERU

July 2008
(Adjusted will the latest cost increases)
General Memorandum of Information
ETHANOL MEGA-PROJECT IN PERU

PRM Group Peru, submits the present Memorandum to orientate possible sustainable
actions of Investors in our country, regarding its Ethanol potentiality

Framework and Scenario:

Peru conforms with Brazil –Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela- the Lung of the Planet
hosting one of the biggest biodiversity in the world.

As of now and for long period, the Peru-Brazil Axe is one of the most prospective economic
development axe in the world that has to be developed based on private efforts conveniently
associated to complete the axe in the Pacific Ocean toward Asia.

Regarding Peru, it is a high agricultural and forestry potential development country due to
three natural factors: Climate, Soil and Water.

In the world there are 103 microclimates which host all the forms of life on the planet; 60 of
them have aptitude for agriculture. Peru has 55 out of these 60 microclimates (91.7%), which
mean that Peru not only can satisfy the local demand, but also is able to compete in the
international markets throughout the year.

PRM 1
Localization of Number of microclimates as per aptitude
Microclimates Agriculture Cattle Forestry Non Total
productive
Worldwide 60 20 16 07 103
Peru 55 16 10 03 84
% of World Microclimates 91.7% 80.0% 62.5% 42.9% 81.6%

Are there enough land and water?


Peru has a total land area of 12,852.16 million of hectares: of which 5.92% (7.61 million)
have agriculture, 13.96% cattle and 37.89% forestry aptitude. Regarding water: 37% of the
water running to the Pacific Ocean, 0.11% of the water running to Atlantic Ocean, and 0.92%
of the water running to the Titicaca Lake is utilized in Agriculture, totaling 0.72% of 2,043.6
million m3 of water flow at national level.

In the other hand, Peru is entering a new stage in its economy, favored by its stable
economy, a satisfactory perception of country risk and the governments’ clearly defined
economic policies.

The following map shows the areas of Agrarian production in Peru:

PRM 2
PRODUCTIVE USE OF
PERUVIAN COAST DESERTIC AREAS

I - INTRODUCTION

Making a journey for the Pan-American Highway from Lima to the frontiers with Ecuador and
Chile, we can appreciate a diversity of valleys along the coast, with their respective rivers.
Many of these rivers only load water in abundance during the avenues period from the
sources coming from the Andes.

Most of these rivers only drain abundant water in the avenue period along 2 to 3 months
yearly and some present risk of disasters in the valleys and in the cities; although the river
levels are lower that the one of valley fence. This way a huge quantity of hydrological
resource gets lost in the Ocean Pacific, favored by the topographical slope.

It is not possible to take advantage of the water in the higher part of the basins, due to the
lack of an irrigation substructure that may allows to irrigate the plains located in one level up
of the valleys, in which big extensions exist, being areas with rich soil and excellent climates
that, for lack of water they plows arid propitiating big desert extensions.

A minority of the 53 rivers of the Peruvian coast count with dam built at very high costs, with
marked limitations and executed through the development of very long maturation projects.

It is important to remark that the hydrologic resource is wasted from most of the rivers that
drain its waters in the avenues period, for not having the mentioned substructure, due to the
high cost that represents the investment in building through the traditional dam model.

II - OBJETIVE OF THE INITIATIVE

The objective of this initiative is to design and build “channels for water reception” in the
higher part of the river basins in order to take advantage of the avenues period and to drive
water trough the mentioned channels toward diverse reservoirs -type artificial lagoons- to be
built in the heads of the high terraces. This way the water reserve could be used throughout
the whole year. These reservoirs will allow the humidification of the terraces sub floor, by
means of natural filtration and according to the slope of the floor topography. For this reason,
the terraces will be permanently humidified and in consequence, the phreatic napa of the sub
floor will be able to stay at to higher level, favoring the cultivations.

The construction system to be projected in this initiative will have to be designed based on
the land topography, according to the inclination of the terraces.

III - METHOD OF CONSTRUCTION

This type of work to be economic and of quick execution, requires the use of Big
Construction Equipment (hydraulic diggers of great capacity: 300 to 500 TM), to carry out big
earth movements in the stage of the excavation, for the construction of the reception
channels, dikes and the respective reservoirs (type artificial lagoon) allowing lower
construction costs and to carry on the works in relatively short periods of time.

PRM 3
Civil works will include the construction of the Contention Barriers that should be castled and
built in the higher part of the river bed at water reception point in order to allows to dam the
water so that it enters for the intake and to maintain a permanent spillway in the shortage of
water periods, staying the river normal bed.

Because the avenues period is relatively short, the system will take advantage of the
maximum reception of water to fully fill reservoirs of great capacity.

Watering channels of smaller section will be built from reservoirs, to distribute water down to
the terraces, where the cultivations projects will be executed. To make a better use of the
water, technical irrigation –dripping or spilling- systems will be used.

Reservoires

River

Current
Crops Fields Desertic Terraces
for new Crops
Pacific
Ocean

City

Comparative advantage of the Peruvian northern coast:

The climate of Peru is very stable, since Peru is a tropical country. The unique characteristic
of the Peruvian whether is due to the influence of the Peruvian or Humboldt current that runs
all along the coast of Peru up to Tumbes were this stream turns to the west. In the Piura
parallel the Andean chain has its lowest altitude which originates a unique climate condition
in the whole World.

This cold stream, creates a natural greenhouse effect on the Peruvian coast. There is
no rain, the temperature is steady throughout the year, and it has 53 rivers that run
from the highlands to the Pacific Ocean, irrigating the coast. These conditions will
allow us to sow all the 365 days of the year and will enable us to irrigate whenever
we want. We will be in control of the crop production, not like other countries that
the nature is in control of the crop production.

PRM 4
IV – AGRONOMIC PROJECTS

A study should be developed to classify the levels of the floor tabard coats and the soil
quality to carry out traditional cultivations, as well as the cultivation of Biomass for the
production of Ethanol.

The lands for traditional agriculture should be reserved to Peruvian Farmers and the
Biomass for Ethanol production oriented to export mainly to Asian countries through
appropriated distribution channels, both under the same management system in a way to
integrate the operation and mitigate any social risk.

There will also be considered areas to develop forestry projects with precocious species,
also integrated to the same system.

Depending on the Project span, the areas of cultivation in the coast valleys will notably be
increased, since the extensions of the terraces plows bigger than those of current operations
in the valleys. In consequence with the extension of this initiative, the areas that are crossed
by the Pan-American Highway will become a great extension of permanent green areas (that
may apply to “Certificate of Emission Reduction CO2” to complement financing scheme),
improving totally this way the national and regional ecology and becoming a very important
productive employment source.

In this way the proposed initiative will be of great social impact, when improving the farmers’
quality of life as well as of the neighboring, along with the ecological impact due to the
notably and magnificent increase of green areas with sustainable, renewable and permanent
cultivations.

As a consequence the initiative will bring a great economic benefit to our country, since the
cultivation of the biomass will allow the development of the agro-industry for the production
and export of ethanol and other products, to the US and other countries worldwide markets,
besides the excellent facilities of roads and shipment ports.

V - QUANTIFICATION OF THE INITIATIVE

The water main substructure depends of the valley characteristics and would need an
investment of some $80 to $100 million including machinery for some $40 to $60 million;
machinery will be reused in other similar projects.

Let take as standard a 40,000 hectares module with an estimation of $240 to $280 million
investment in development of the agrarian substructure -with dripping systems- and
cultivations. Additionally is the investment for acquisition and installation of the Ethanol Plant
with top technology.

The value of an installed hectare with irrigation substructure with the whole year water inflow
will worth (capitalization) average $15,000; then the land value will rise to $600 million in the
second year after the installation. So only the Fixed Assets added value will justify the
investment. Besides there will be the revenues from the fuel operation and from the
agricultural and forestry operations, that will guarantee the cash flow of each project.

It is important to mention that along with the Ethanol production -with the residual of the
processed biomass of 40,000 Ha- energy in the level of 130 to 150 Mw may be generated.

PRM 5
The Ethanol Impact in the Peruvian Economy:

PRM 6
ETHANOL COMPETITIVINESS IN THE PERUVIAN COAST

Due to the comparatives advantages of the Peruvian Northern Coast a low cost to produce
Ethanol is prospected. Any Peruvian Project will be able to enter the world market with the
highest level of competitiveness. Even the southern coast down to Ica and the north of
Arequipa will be competitive.

The following figures have been worked-out with Brazilian experts that visited the northern
coast areas (ref.: COMISA project 2003):

CONCEPT NATIONAL BRAZIL (*) COMISA


LABOR 196.25 133.52 77.91
MACHINERY 143.35 204.24 197.87
SUPPLIES 575.88 470.42 943.18
OTHERS 483.15 41.57 68.83
TOTAL 1,398.63 849.75 1,287.80
PRODUCTION MT/Ha 140 84.5 180
MT COST IN THE FIELD $ 9.99 10.06 7.15

(*) Brazil has a cut period of 7 months vs 12 months in Peru.

As it can be noticed a Peruvian Project may show higher cost on the Supplies concept due to
the permanent “ferti-irrigation” that should be foreseen. This technology even though requires
greater investment it will end up with the lowest cost.

Regarding the costs of Ethanol per liter, and taking the same level of industrial investment
than that of Brazil, Peruvian costs are as follow:

COSTS Ltr

INDUSTRIAL 0.030
SUGAR CANE 0.050
CROP AND TRANSPORT 0.030
Depreciation 0.060
A&G 0.007
Financial Cost 0.033
TOTAL $ 0.210
Contemplates the latest increment on investment costs

Some other sources - Cost Level for Ethanol:


- Brazil: $0.25 / ltr (sugar cane)
- USA - Canada: $0.35 - $0.39 / ltr (corn)
- China $0.35 - $0.39 / ltr (corn)
- EU >$0.50 / ltr (corn)

The Peruvian figures are based on an average productivity of 170 MT/Ha when as it may be
observed nowadays, yields averaging 200 MT/Ha are being obtained,

So, one may conclude that a reasonable cost per liter of Ethanol in Peru may be $0.15.

PRM 7
PERU: THE MOST COMPETITIVE WORLDWIDE

Péru from
Sugar Cane
Eu 0.115
US$0.15

Level of economical viability:


Brazil .- US$35 the barrel of petroleum Perú: US$ 25
USA .- US$45 to US$50

Peru

Peru optimal location


to produce ethanol from
sugar cane

SAO
PAULO

PRM 8
TWO AXELS OF DEVELOPMENT:

PERUVIAN ETHANOL MEGA-PROJECT (Future)

Cassava
Axle
Sugar Potential:
Cane Axle 1.5 million hectares

Potential:
2.0 million hectares

Plus ...
Other raw materials under investigation

9
THE MARKET:

The ethanol market is defined for the obligation of the diverse countries (included Peru), to
lower the emissions mixing the ethanol like additive to the gasoline because of the mandate
of the Kyoto Protocol.

World
Eastern Europe
Arab Countries
Norway
Former UURRSS
Eupean Union
Japan

USA

The price of the ethanol is projected based on the latest increase in the price level of this bio-
fuel that –as it has been demonstrated- follows the pacing of the petroleum based fuels; and
because the foreseeable increasing demand with an also foreseeable shortage of the offer,
as is shown in the following projection:

10
PROJECTED WORLD-WIDE DEMAND TO YEAR 2010
IN MILLION DE M3 OF ETHANOL

Prospective Domestic Markets


(Fuel Ethanol million m3/yr, 2010)

USA Now to be increased 18 - 20

BRAZIL 15 - 18

JAPAN, all imported 8 - 12

CHINA, partially imported 6 - 12

EUROPEAN UNION 9 - 14

WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1-3

OTHER ASIA 1-2

CANADA 1-2

AFRICA 0.5 - 1

AUSTRALIA 0.5 - 1

“We will continue to move forward on a comprehensive energy policy that supports
alternative sources of fuel like ethanol and biodiesel, so we can make this nation less
dependent on foreign sources”
Vice President Dick Cheney, August 2004

“Renewable fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, play an important role in a


comprehensive energy plan that promotes conservation and reduces dependence on
foreign sources of energy”
President George Bush 2004

33.3% of renewable fuels; mainly ethanol …


President George Bush - Feb 2006

11
Europe Projection of Demand - Production
USA Projection of Demand - Production
Demand
Demand
Production
Production

After the announcement of


President Bush, these figures
may be tripled.

000 Million of Liters 000 Million of Liters


Source: F.O. Licht Source: F.O. Licht

The demand projects to be higher than the production, that is one reason to foster the
Ethanol production from sugar cane in the northern coast of Peru where there exist the best
comparative advantages of the world.

China is promoting the use of derivative petroleum fuels with addition of Ethanol in a pilot
experience beginning with nine cities of the northeast and central regions. This action has
been designed with the purpose of creating a new market for its surplus of cereals and of
reducing the consumption of petroleum as well as reduce the levels of environmental
contamination.

In accordance with the figures provided by the Secretary of Development, Industry and
Foreign Commerce of Brazil, that country could sell this year 500 million liters of Ethanol to
China. Nevertheless, the potential demand China of this product is much bigger, being
constituted in a market of extraordinary dimensions.

World Ethanol Exchange and Futures Market

• Is being developed over time as traded volumes increase

• Requires international agreement on fuel ethanol specifications

• Requires liquidity – multiple producers and established markets, though may evolve
like sugar, a “dump market” with volumes limited to those with non-preferential
access

• CBOT is already operating Futures; NYMEX also is entering to Ethanol

• Major US ethanol producers may oppose as they don’t want free flow of information
and fuel ethanol to be a commodity (although it is already close to be …)

12
Projection for Peru

Just to frame the project within the potential context of Sugar Cane for ethanol development
in Peru, it is important to take into consideration that our country has a conservative potential
of 1 million hectares to develop in the northern coast (it is not advisable to plant Sugar Cane
in the Forest where only 6 to 7 months a year of cropping is possible versus 12 month of the
coast) which are projected in 20 years time with the following potential production level:

(*) The double of this level (that is to say 2 million hectares) is quite possible to be attained in the same time
frame according the market development and financial resources availability. With such potential, Peru would only
offer in 20 years an equivalent to 4.3% of the worldwide average demand projected for year 2010 when a
shortage of offer is foreseeable.

PERU AND ITS NATURAL REGIONS


MOUNTAIN
COAST FOREST

NORTH

CENTER

SOUTH

Number of Micr oclimates as per aptitude


Localization of M icr oclimates Agricultur e Catt le Fore stry Non Tot al
product ive
Worldw ide 60 20 16 7 103
Pe ru 55 16 10 3 84
Per centage 91.70% 80.00% 62.50% 42.90% 81.60%

13
As reference it is observed that Brazil has sowed around 2.7 millions hectares of Sugar Cane
with an average productivity of 70 MT/Ha, being projected to reach in the year 2010, 5.0
millions hectares with average yield of 98 MT/Ha; in the year 2015, 8.0 millions hectares with
yields of 126 TM/Ha; and in the year 2020, 13.0 millions hectares with yields of 140 TM/Ha.
While in the Peruvian Northern Coast we can reach easily an average of 200 MT/Ha with a
bigger sucrose content (impossible to obtain in Brazil); this would allow us to reach an
equivalent on the average of 13% or more than the Brazilian production projected at year
2020; all this thanks to the comparative advantages of Peru represented by their significantly
bigger productivity and their highest sucrose content.

A sample of how the Northern Peruvian desert cam be transformed into productive land with
dripping irrigation; productivities as high as over 200 MT/Ha of sugar cane are being
obtained today. Because of that result we can confirm that no less than 2 million hectares
can be developed for ethanol in the coming years only in the northern coast and make Peru
the worldwide leader in competitiveness producing ethanol for export markets.

The direct cost per liter of ethanol produced in Peru, will average less than $0.15 versus
$0.25 of Brazil, over $0.35 of China and USA and over $0.50 in Europe.

Sugar Cane in the Northern Peruvian Desert: over 200 MT/Ha

14
Perú
A forthcoming competitive offer:
the Mega Project
• Kyoto Protocol Compliance
• Should start with a level of 5% Ethanol replacement in gasoline…
• Not significant Ethanol local production as of now (2008)
• Prospection of development in Ethanol activity from sugar cane in the
northern coast (Internal Demand for the whole country):
Years Number Production Inter. Demand
(Acc. Has) (Million gls/year) (Million gls/year)
2010-11 80,000 335 13
2012-13 200,000 839 26
2014-15 400,000 1,678 53
2016-20 700,000 2,936 79
2021-25 1’000,000 4,195 159
Twice this capacity may be reached in the Northern Coast of Peru.

• Also prospects the lowest production cost in the world market.

Competitiveness summary (based on a conservative productivity level of 170 MT/Ha):

15
Financing.- Besides the availability of Funds in the International Market, the possibility of
"Future Contract" to sale the production in various markets and the Financing-
Collateralization scheme through “Trust in Guarantee Assets with Cash Flow Subordination
and on-line Risk Management”; there is as additional complementary financing source
"Certificates of CO2 Emissions Reduction" (Protocol of Kyoto), registering the successive
projects, as CDM Projects (Clean Development Mechanism), in reason of the greening of big
today arid extensions in the Peruvian Coast generating and fixing Oxygen; and because it is
foreseen an automated operation for the Cane eliminating the burning used in manual crop,
a highly polluted action.

The price of these CO2 Certificates per ton of CO2. captured is going up. At the present time,
the market is a "buyers' market" (World Bank, some European countries and limitedly USA),
since only some few countries are forcing their industries to fulfill with the Kyoto Protocol.
Nevertheless, it should be kept in mind that since year 2005 the European Union has
implemented the Trading of Emissions mechanism in all its territory, what will cause a
significant increase of the price of these certificates (initially estimated in about 10.00 Euros
and then up to 20.00 Euros per ton of CO2).

LABV-PRMC

Ethanol Projects
PERU northern coast ideal to
in Peru
produce ethanol from
Sugar Cane :

1. Crop: 12 months/year
2. Light hours per day
3. Sun Radiation
4. Difference of temeparture
between day and night
5. Practically no rains

16
PROJECT TECHNOLOGY and TECHNICAL SPECS (Referential Model)

The project id foreseeing the following technologies:

Field Technology:

1. Water supply; depending on site election

2. Dripping Irrigation

3. Mechanical Crop

Industrial technology:

1. Extraction through Diffuser System

2. Energy auto-generated by bagasse burning

3. High-tech Distillery

4. Effluent treatment

Results obtained in Dripping Irrigations recent experiences in the Northern Coast of Peru:
It is important to remark that at the present time some new fields with dripping irrigation have
actually a rising productivity in the Northern Peruvian Coast with the first cut between 16 and
18 months:

- Cartavio (Trujillo): 220 MT/Ha

- Laredo (Trujillo): 210 MT/Ha

- Andahuasi (Lima): 280 MT/Ha

Raw Material Specs:

Reducing sucrose: 3% to 4%

Yield Average: 13% to 15% (total sugars)

Purity: 90%

Varieties: H32 / H37/ and “Azul Casagrande”

Further information to be supplied.

17
SUGARCANE SUBSURFACE-DRIP-IRRIGATION (S.D.I.)

A pro-environmental virtuous loop


General
Integrator:

SUGAR
CANE FERMENTATION

SUGAR CANE TREATMENT JUICES


DIFUSSER EXTRACTION

WATER

BAGASSE ENERGY ETHANOL


DISTILLERY To the Market
STEAM VINASSE
GENERATION

ELECTRIC
GENERATOR

NaanDan
NaanDanJain
Jain
ENERGY
to the
Public Network EFFLUENT TREATMENT

BIO-FERTILIZER

NUTRIGATION I N P by ... To the Market

18
An Ethanol Project as it is appraised should be energetically independent with renewable
energy from the bagasse of the sugar cane; and could have three products to offer: the
ethanol, the bio-fertilizer and the energy to be sold in the public network in the rush hours

ETHANOL Specs:

Analysis
Water % by weight max 0,5(=0,3 vol%)
Total alcohol % by weight min 99,2(=99,5 vol%)
Density (D20/4) kg/m3 max 792
Methanol g/l max 4 (=0,5 vol%)
Higher alcohols, C3-C5 g/l max 16(=2,0 vol%)
Acidity (as acetic acid) % by weight max 0,005(=40 mg/l)
Appearance Free from particles
Solvent-washed Gum mg/100 ml max 5
Total Chlorine as Chlorides mg/kg max 2
Total Sulphur mg/kg max 10
Copper mg/kg max 0,1
Conductivity, electrical µs/m max 500
pH 6,5-9

Premises assumed for a first approach (investment costs adjusted will late increases):
The main variables shown in the “General Input” chart have the following range in the model:

19
20
FUNDING NEEDS for the PROJECT

We present as an average the Investment Prospection of a unit with initial capacity from
300.000 to 600.000 liters per day (lpd)

Premises:
- Investment in the order of US$164 million
- Land contribution in the order of US$24 million
- Third stage: to 1'000,000 lpd, not computed. The investment is auto-generated.

Assets and Cash Flow Evolution:

Value of Assets in the Trust Corpus


ETHANOL Project - Peru

400

300
000US$

Total Debt
200
Assets Coverage
100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
End of Year

Subordinated Cash Flow


ETHANOL Project - Peru

140
120
100 Sales
000US$

80
EBITDA
60
40 Debt Service
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
End of Year

21
Net Present Value and IRR of the Investment (conservative scenario):

Credit Collateralization:

Type of Operation: Gradual Patrimony Back-up Project Finance, complemented with a Trust in
Guarantee Assets (Independent Patrimony) with Cash Flow Subordination and on-line Risk
Management.

Projection to final capacity:

As a reference we present the prospected results of the project (conservative scenario) in


300.000 lpd to 600.000 lpd and finally to 1'000,000 lpd.

22
23