MEMORANDUM TO: Interested Parties FROM: Rick Shaftan, Neighborhood Research and Media RE: Iowa Caucus Polling DATE: 1/19/20 The following are the results of a survey of 300 Iowa Democrats who said their chances of voting in the February 3 Democratic Presidential Caucus were

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definite

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 or

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very likely.

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 The ballot test question was asked as an open-ended, with no names suggested. As a result, a small percentage of respondents mentioned Donald Trump as their first choice, even though they said they plan on  participating in the Democratic Caucus. BALLOT TEST  ALL DEF LIBERAL MOD FB DAILY NO FB  N= 300 193 143 106 128 109 Biden 23.3% 22.8% 21.7% 29.3% 22.7% 29.4% Buttigieg 17.0% 18.1% 15.4% 17.9% 19.5% 12.8%  Warren 14.7% 15.5% 23.1% 5.7% 15.6% 11.9% Klobuchar 11.3% 13.5% 7.7% 17.9% 12.5% 11.0% Sanders 10.3% 9.3% 14.7% 3.8% 7.8% 9.2% Trump 4.7% 4.2% 0.7% 2.8% 6.3% 4.6% Steyer 2.3% 2.6% 1.4% 1.9% 0.0% 4.6% Yang 1.7% 1.6% 2.1% 0.9% 1.6% 2.8% Others 1.7% 2.1% 1.4% 0.9% 1.6% 1.8% Undecided 13.0% 10.4% 11.9% 13.2% 12.5% 11.9% 65+ <50 75+ CELL MEN WOMEN  N= 175 56 81 98 117 183 Biden 28.6% 10.7% 30.9% 16.3% 18.8% 26.2% Buttigieg 16.0% 21.4% 14.8% 18.4% 18.8% 12.0%  Warren 11.4% 23.2% 9.9% 19.4% 12.8% 15.9% Klobuchar 13.7% 1.8% 11.1% 11.2% 10.3% 12.0% Sanders 7.4% 19.6% 7.4% 11.2% 11.1% 9.8% Trump 2.3% 3.6% 2.5% 6.1% 5.1% 4.4% Steyer 4.0% 0.0% 7.4% 1.0% 2.6% 2.2% Yang 0.6% 7.1% 0.0% 3.1% 4.3% 0.0% Others 1.7% 1.8% 1.2% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% Undecided 14.3% 10.7% 14.8% 12.2% 14.5% 12.0% Biden

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s lead is based entirely on results from the first night, prior to the debate. Of all the candidates, he took the biggest hit that

 

evening although Yang has also been hurt. The beneficiaries: Klobuchar and Steyer. Sanders has also lost ground to Warren. Joe Biden is essentially in freefall and despite his current lead, it

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s highly unlikely he will win the caucus unless something changes in his favor rapidly in the last few days. 1/14 1/15-17 Change  N= 103 197 Biden 30.1% 19.8% -11.3% Buttigieg 16.5% 17.3% + 0.8%  Warren 12.6% 15.7% + 3.1% Klobuchar 8.7% 12.7% + 4.0% Sanders 10.7% 10.2% - 0.5% Trump 2.9% 5.6% + 2.7% Steyer 1.0% 3.1% + 2.1% Yang 2.9% 1.0% - 1.9% Others 2.9% 1.5% - 1.4% Undecided 12.6% 13.2% + 0.6%  Warren and Klobuchar have the advantage of both a motivated base and  momentum after the caucus. Sanders and especially Biden have the opposite problem. Look for Biden to lose his lead over the next few days, and for Sanders people to start moving to Warren

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 something that will accelerate in the final days as Sanders starts to fade,  which he will. Buttigieg has a solid second place showing, but does better with younger men and will end up getting much of the Yang support (every Yang voter was an under 35 male.) Other notes: Klobuchar

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s support is on the older side age-wise, a plus in a caucus  where most participants are likely to be over 65. Steyer has similar demographics, only more-so. All his voters were over 75 years of age. That being said, Steyer could run better than expected with an outside chance of running ahead of Sanders. Sanders running in third place with voters under 50 is a disaster for him, and even worse, running FOURTH with liberals. 55 percent of his voters named Elizabeth Warren as a second choice, and that

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s who they  will flock to once his defeat becomes apparent. These voters will  push Warren to a first-place finish over the surging Klobuchar, who is rapidly gaining Biden voters, and Buttigieg, who is strong with men and younger voters.