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70

Figure 2.5 Climatic zones in SouthAfrica

While Thornes (1995) work focused mainly on electricity, he examined energy efficiency and conservation policy options which wouldreduce the demand for energy andeconomic resources for householdenergy services.

What follows is a summary of the abovementioned studies insofar as they focus on energy enduse patterns among low income or poor urban householdsin South Africa. This is important to determinewhether there is an adequate overview and analysis of end-use patterns in order to inform energy efficiency measures.
2.2.1 Cooking
Afrane-Okese

contended that in the three climatic zones identified, the majorityof low income householdsdo not cook with electricity. It is further observed that there is a direct relationship between formal dwelling types and the use of electricity for cooking. The 'more formalised the dwelling type in each climatic region, the more households tend to use electricity for cooking'
(Afrane-Okese 1995).

In the three climaticzones,wood is used more extensively for cooking than anyother fuel. Wood usage for cooking is quite high in thesethreeclimatic zones amongall dwellingtypes with at least 80% of householdsusingwood. Backyard shacks appear to use more wood for cooking than other housingtypes. Itmust be borne in mind that Afrane-Okese focused on rural and urban areas.

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11

Nationally, wood is said to be usedby 23% of urban householdsfor cooking and coalby 25% for the same end-use (Uken and Sinclair 1991 cited in Williams 1994). According to Afrane-Okese (1995: 15), in the temperate and hot humid zones about 50% of households in formal and unplannedshacksuse coal forcooking. Area specific end-use patterns for cooking are recorded in Williams (1994) from various studies (Uken and Sinclair 1991; Kessel 1988 and so on). The use of multiple fuels for the same activity (end-use) is more distinct at this scale. For example, while it was found that between 55% and 70% of Soweto and Pretoria households were using electricity for cooking, 63% of electrified householdsuse coal for cooking in the PWV area. Paraffinis also used widely for cookingamong poorurban households. In the temperateandhot humid zones, the use of paraffin for cookingis very prominent among planned and unplanned shacks. Over 70% of these households use this fuel. According to Uken and Sinclair cited in Williams (1994: 28), paraffin is the principal energy source for cooking among poor urban householdsin SouthAfrica. LPG is not saidtobe an importantfuel forcooking exceptin the WesternCape whereit is usedby non-electrified households in the order of 7 kg per month, with planned and unplanned shacks both using about 5 kg per month (Williams 1994). Thorne(1995: 60) provides the following table to indicatethe usage of different fuels for cooking by urban households.
electricity wood coal gas paraffin dung -

Urban households

42

23

25

8

44

Table 2.2 Percentage of urban households usingdifferentfuelsforcooking Source: Hofmeyer (1994); Moller(1985); Uken and Sinclair(1991) in Thome (1995: 60)

former defined as the energy which 'goes into cooking, boiling, simmeringand frying'. Electricity is saidto be the most efficient in the conversionof deliveredto utilised energy. Solid fuels are the least efficient. The greatest efficiencies are achieved through the use of commercial fuels i.e. electricity, gas andparaffin.The author points out that while electricity is the most efficient in the final transformation,when the entire transformationprocess from primary to utilised energy is considered, it is not the most efficient. Whileelectricity provides the highest efficiencies,the wood fire has the lowest life-cycle cost. Cooking with dung, coal, low-smoke coal or wood in a stove alsohas low life-cycle costs.
2.2.1.1 Energy efficiency andcooking

Thorne (1995)measured the efficiency of cooking as the ratio of utilised to deliveredenergy, the

Theliterature revealsthat many householdsare reluctant to utilise LPG not only for cooking but otherend purposes as wellmainly because of their perceptionthat this fuel carries a high degree of danger. TheGovernmentof National Unity's RDP also intends to constructa million housesin the next five years. The proposed housing programme provides an opportunity to change this perceptionof the potential occupants of new dwellingsand to encouragethem to utlise LPG for cooking and other end-uses.In addition to electrification, gas cylinderscan also be provided for in the planning and construction of new houses.In this way, newhouseholds(in the urban poor sector of SouthAfrica) willbe left with a choiceoffuel usage for differentactivities. While paraffin appears to be widely used for cooking, it appears from the literature that it is utilised mainly out of necessity because it is cheap and can be obtained in small quantities. If
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72

have accessto safer andmore convenient as well as directlyaccessible fuels for cooking, they would naturally refrain from using paraffinor use it in conjunction with other fuels andout of choice, not necessity. At the macro scale, the literature on end-use patterns among the urban poor in South Africa is mostly quantitative and in this form generally serves adequatelyto inform national policy and decisionmaking on the provision andplanning of energy services for cookingfor the urban poor. The literatureis also able to inform suppliersof ways andmeans of achieving energy efficiency in their provision of energy services.However,as pointed out by Ross (1993) who is referred to in Williams (1994: 26) 'household income and fuel efficiency are not the only criteria by which fuel use decisions are made'. There is a myriad of other end-use considerations of a more qualitative nature at the micro scale that need to be understood in order to provide an energy efficient service to the urban poor and to inform a demand-side management programme(DSMP) from an end-userperspective.

In relation to cooking, for example, household size plays an important role in determining consumptionpatterns of various fuels. Considerationshould be given to the number of people (the core household, lodgers, occupants of a backyardshack or outbuildinglocated on the same erf as the main dwelling)constituting 'the household' when cooking arrangementsare decided. Other considerationsinclude the use of extra energy for preparing food for large feasts, funerals
etc.

The gender and status of the person doing the activity is also important to consider. It is not unusual for women and children of neighbouringhouseholdsin less formal urban locations to gather or purchase fuel (wood/coal) together and engage in the activity at the same time. Large fires are often made outside and cookingtakes place communally, resultingin fuel savings. The social benefitsof such an arrangementare noted as well. From an urban planning pointof view, this type of arrangementcanbe encouraged through the design of local areas in which proper outdoor facilities are provided to accommodate it. The provision of proper facilities to accommodate outdoor communal cooking will also obviate the problemof carbonmonoxideemissionsfrom the constantburning of fuels. Suchan area could be located close to playlots and public open spaces designated for extra-mural use by children (during the day and earlyevening) so that adult supervision(usually by women) can take place at the same time as engagingin the activityofcooking. Open-fire communalcooking doesnot feature in the literature on end-usepatterns. In fact,wood is not consideredto be a commonlyusedfuel in urban areasin the studies reviewedon end-use patterns. Yet, while it may not be a frequent occurrence, wood is used in this way especially in low-income informal urban settlements. This observation was made by field-workers in Vrygrond, an informalsettlementin Cape Town(Cape TownCityCouncil 1994). Theliterature has also failed to examineinitiativesby low income urban peoples' to embark on domestic energy efficient programmes. Very real attempts by households in this sector to conserve energy and utilise it in an economically and environmentally efficientmanner may be contributingtowards achievingenergy efficiency. Little is known,for example,about the extent to which households in this sector are aware of the efficiency of different fuel and appliance combinations for cooking, nor the degree to which energy efficiency influences the decisionmakingof householdswhenthisend-useis plannedfor in the medium to long term. 2.2.2 Space heating According to the research utilised by Williams (1994) there are two fuels which dominate the space heating service provision. These include paraffin and coal used by 42% and 39% of householdsrespectively on a nationalbasis. The regional differences for space heating among low-income householdsare as follows. Coal is used by 48% of households in the Gauteng area and by 85% in Bloemfontein. In the Western
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Chapter2:Househo!dend-use
Cape, 72% householdsuse paraffin

13

for space heating. In the Durban Functional Region, the need for space heating is somewhatless with only 53% of householdsneeding to utilise fuel for this end purpose. Of these, 27% use wood and the rest use paraffin. In Port Elizabeth and East London, space heating does not appear to be a high priority among low income households because of the more favourableclimatic conditionsprevailingin the winterseason. Thorne (1995) argues that improved thermal comfort of households can be achieved through design characteristics of a dwelling's structure. It is well known,however, that the urban poor largelyreside in structureswhich can barely be termed habitable in terms of human comfort and thermalperformance. Various problems are being experienced with current space heating practices in South Africa. Thorne(1995) citesSurtees (1993) as stating that Eskomhas found that for the past two years,the national peak electricity demand coincided with the domestic peak on cold days in winter. Electrical space heating therefore contributesincreasingly to peak electricity demandas indicated by Figure 2.3 above. Thorne(1995: 77) furtherpoints out that the use of solid fuels for space heatingis often inefficient because of incomplete combustion and the release of high levels of pollution inside the dwelling which impacts negatively on the health of low-income coal-using urban households. Pollution monitoringundertaken in severalhistoricallyblack residentialareas by the CSIR and MRC has found that peoples' exposures to indoor air pollution, especially particulate matter, exceed US and WHO health standards by a factor of five to six during winter, and two to three during summer(Terbiancheetal 1992:15).
2.2.2.1 Energy efficiency and space heating Space heating would not be such a major consideration for low income urban households in terms of fuel usage if they resided in dwellings with adequate insulation and their thermal performance was properly matched with humancomfortwith reference to the climatic conditions within which they are located. Should the thermal performanceof the dwellingbe improved, access to electricity to operate heat pumps, for example, would simply be a bonus. Additional spaceheatingmay theneasilybe regarded as a luxury. Householdscould decide whether they require additional space heating bearing in mmd the additionalcosts involved. The usage of less efficientfuels would be minimised since additional space heatingwould not necessarily be required andif so, certainly not as frequently as would be the case in structureswhich performpoorly in terms of thermalcomfort. Sellick (1993: 2) acknowledges that 'a dwelling which is built withoutadequate or no insulation, will experience poor thermal performance. This has a number of detrimentaleffects on the occupants which are exposed to hot and cold temperature extremes and inefficient and costly space heating to ward off the cold.' Others, including Hoim (1994), Van Wyk & Rousseau (1992) andThorne(1995) have attempted to address the issue of poorly performing low income housing in termsof thermalcomfortandenergy-efficient low-cost housingdesign. Hoim's work (1994)focuses on passive thermal design in low cost housing.Passive designrefers to the construction of buildings in harmony with the local climate to ensure indoor thermal comfort with minimaldependence on artificialheating or cooling. His report distinguishes three categories of improved passive thermal design, namely informalretrofit, formal retrofit and new formal, mainlyin the Highveldregion of South Africa.

Van Wyk & Rousseau discuss, inter alia, energy efficient design with respect to building materials, orientation, windows, ventilation, number of occupants of a dwelling, roofing, insulationandflooring. Thornestatesthat the South AfricanBuilding Regulations and the MinimumAgreement Norms andTechnical AdvisoryGuide (MANTAG) include thermalperformance and lighting criteria for

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14

dwellings. The National Building Research Institute (NBRJ) embarked on an experimental housing project in the WesternCapeknown as the CapeLow EnergyExperiment Project (CLEEP) which focused on the improved thermal performance of housing for (low) middle income occupants.However,only limitedimplementationof these principleshas been effected in the case of low cost housing for the urban poor even though sufficient technical information is available on improvingthe thermalperformanceof a dwellingunit.

In fact, the urban building process in South Africa around the developmentof informal or selfmade housing does not have very good building practices where, among other things, thermal performance is concerned. Even in formal township layouts, sun and wind directions which

should informthe orientationof the dwelling,are hardly considered. While informationon the improvementof the thermal performanceof housing is abundant,it is restrictedto the micro scale. Thereare many other considerationsat a larger scale which require attention in order to improve energy efficiency and thermal comfort where space heating as an end-use,is concerned.These have to do with the sitingof a local area for habitation by the urban poor. Theurban poorresidemainlyon the city's edge typifiedby an urban fabric whichis mostly unacceptablein termof basichuman comfort.The term 'urbanfabric' definestheenvironmentin which household dwelling structures are located, for example, informal urban settlements or shack developments. Edge conditions of a city, especially in South Africa, often result in the of marginalisation the poor. The SouthAfricancity's apartheid historywhich prevented,through group areas and other legislation, the location of this sector close to urban opportunities, intensified such marginalisation. The economic disadvantageof locations away from urban opportunities, necessitates a trade-off between access and pricing. This hinders efficiency because people are willing to pay dearly for energy services and products from the informal economy which is expensive. These services would otherwise be more easily accessible and cheaper to obtain within the formal urban
economy. Also, in these circumstances, the poor often find themselves in spaces on the city's periphery which would (under normal circumstances) have been declared unsuitable for urban developmentunless appropriateinterventions(like land fill) were commissioned to make these suitable. Informalurban settlements such as Crossroadsin the Cape are often located on wetlands or land with high water tables and have inadequate drainage services to overcome such problems. This, together with wind leaks and damp penetration, increases the need for space heating.

The predominance of macro scale determinants informingthe urban building process prevents this process from responding to the natural conditions prevailingin certain local areas. Macro scale determinants can only be stated broadly and therefore often fail to inform site specific conditions(i.e. conditions specific to a local area or large piece of vacant land to be developed) which informants at a micro scale are able to do. A good exampleof this is the insistence in the literature upon understandingthe developmentof local areasand dwellingstructures in termsof six (cold interior, temperate interior, hot interior, temperatecoastal, subtropical coastal and arid interior) or three broad climatic zones (temperate, hot-humid and hot-dry) prevailing in South Africa. The developmentof local urban areas is dependent not only on climatic conditions but on many othernatural elements as well. These are likely to differ from area to area within the same climaticzone and include micro-climate considerationsand those of geology, hydrology,local vegetationand landscape requirements. If these were to be carefully considered in the urban building process, not only will thermal efficiency improvebut developmentwould take place in responseto and with respectfor the prevailingenvironmentalconditions withinwhich local areas are located. Future studies on the improvement of thermal performance and energy efficiency in the provisionof low cost housingneed to focus also onbroader planningissueslike the siting oflocal

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15

urbanareas on landwhichis generally suitablefor urban development.These andother concerns mentionedearlier must be considered at the very outset of the planning process.

TheRDP's proposed housingprogrammeprovides an opportunity for low income housingto be perceived differently from just the provision of a dwelling unit or shelter. It provides ai-t opportunityto create living environments where the emphasisis on meetingbasicneeds as well as providingaccess to all urban services, includingenergyservices. 2.2.3 Water Heating

that wood and paraffin are the mostcommonsourcesof low-income households in the case of water heating. Around 50% of urban energy among householdsin all dwellingtypes use wood for thispurpose. In the three climatic zones identified in this study, wood usage for water heating decreases in formal households as the use of electricity increases. This may be due to the installation of geysers in formal housing. Williams (1994: 30) quotes lJken and Sinclair (1991) as having found that paraffin is the most frequently used water heating fuel, whichisusedby at least45% of low incomehouseholds.
Afrane-Okese's study (1995: 16) reveals

Williams (1994: 30) further indicates that water heating is 'very often provided by the same appliance-energycarrier combination as is used for cooking'. The same can be said for space heating. Thereis therefore a significant degree of correlation between the energy carriersused for the provisionof these threeend-uses. Afrane-Okese (1995) reports that about 20% of all households are said to use coal for water heating. The mix of energy sources used for water heating does not differ widely between climatic zones. This doesnot,however, mean that the quantity of energy used is the same in each zone.
2.2.3.1 Energy efficiency and waterheating

It is difficultto separate out water-and-space heating andcookingservices since one option can meet three services simultaneously. in fact, this undermines the basic end-use approach. For example, the costs and efficienciesof coal stovesare low on average for all three servicesbecause
coalprovides multipleutility. The most efficient way of heating water is through the utilisation of solar energy i.e. heating water by utiJisingthe long wavelengthradiation of the sun. The benefits to be derived from this sourceinclude: • a reduction in the cost of waterheating; air pollution;

• a reduction in the indoor use of coal, wood or hydrocarbonfuels and thus indoor and urban • a reduction in householdexpenditureon energyservices; • enhancing the quality of life ofhouseholdsandcommunities; and • reducingpeakload demandon thenationalelectricity grid.
As is the case with thermal performance of low-cost housing, abundant information is available on the technologyand know-how of introducingdomestic solar water heating to end-userson a large scale. While the cost of solar water heaters is said to be quite high and the paybackperiods quite long, savingsin the long term canbenefitdomestic end-users. The literature on solar water heating fails to address the question of introducing incentives to encourageuse of this technology by reducing,for example,the up front cost thus making it more affordable. Another aspectwhich requiressome focus is the lackof knowledge among poor urban householdsaboutthis energysource.

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Chapter2:Householdend-use

16

2.2.4 Ughftng The basic fuels used for lighting by poor urban households are paraffin, candles, LPG and electricity. Paraffin and candles are believed to be the most common fuels for this purpose. Williams (1994: 33) records Uken and Sinclair (1991) as stating that 34% and 31% of households use paraffin andcandles respectively, for lighting. Thorne (1995: 82) states that even though 'lighting uses little energy in absolute terms, amongst the poor it is a service that constitutesa considerable proportionof the energy bill, and where thesehouseholdsare electrified, of the electricity bill.' He also states that 'despite the low energy intensity of lighting, it is an energy service in which significant householdenergy and economic efficiency advancescan be made.'
2.2.4.1 Energy efficiencyandlighting

Electricity provides a superior source of lighting and is among the cheapest options for the provision of this service. It follows clearly therefore that electrification and access to electricity by the urban poorwifino doubt improveaccess to proper lightingfor this sector. Electric lighting is, however, tied to entry costs of house-wiring andthose of luxninaires as well. This raises questions aboutthe capacityof the urban poor to affordthis source of lightingwhen it becomesavailable. The national electrification programme should therefore not be seen in isolation from other economic factors faced by low-income urban inhabitants. The provision of housing and electrification can provide tremendouseconomic opportunitiesfor a large number of people, (as well as improving the thermal performance of dwellings) and attempts should be made to provideas manyjobs as possible through employinglabour-intensive methods. Householdlighting is usually viewed separatelyfrom other sources of lighting at a bigger scale. Streetlighting as a 'free' public utilityis hardly mentionedin the literature on energy efficiency. Yet it acts as a source of lightingto occupantsofbackyardshacks in urban areas. Highmastlightingalso illuminates backyards and/or backyard shacks where streetfrontlighting fails to reach. Household safety and visits to ablution facilities which are most often located outsideof thebackyarddwelling,can be enhancedthrough streetlighting. This separation of household lighting services from street lighting is an indication of fragmentationin the urban building process. When self-made homes are constructed in areas where urban infrastructure (the provision of roads, services, public facilities) is adequately supplied,administeredandsupported, self-madehomebuildersrespondpositively to that which is alreadyin place. In other words, theymake full use ofthe utilitiessurroundingthem in order to save on buildingcosts. Candleusage as an importantsource of lighting is underestimatedin the literature. Afrane-Okese (1995: 17) admitsthat thereare 'datagaps on candle use, since most surveys ignore candlesas one ofthe basic fuels for low-income households'.

2.2.5 Refrigeratlon Electricity is the main fuel for refrigerationin the three climatic zones distinguishedby AfraneOkese (1995: 17). At least 35% of households in formal houses, planned and unplanned shacks rely on this energy source for refrigeration. Williams (1994: 34) quotesGolding and Hoets (1992) as having found that out of 11 townships surveyed, an average of 83% of electrified households had refrigerators which were also found to be the most commonelectrical appliance available in the samplesurveyed. LPG is utilised by at least 25% of formalhouses and unplanned shacks for

thisend-use.

Refrigeration is an important service in poor householdslargelybecause it enables them to make bulk purchases of perishable goods and therefore extend the value of their meagre incomes, it

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Chapter2:Hocjseholdend-use

17

must, however,be rememberedthat the entrance barrier to refrigerationis high given the high capital cost of the appliance and the lack of access to credit among poor urban households. Electric AC refrigeratorshave the lowest operatingcosts according to Cowanet al (1992) cited in

Thorne(1995).
2.2.5.1 Energy efficiency andrefrigeration Refrigeration is important for the storage of bulk purchases andperishables.It is not so much the cost andavailabilityof the sourceof energy to fuel this appliancethat is importantas the fact that the entry cost to acquire it is extremely high. Low-income householdsdo not have easy access to credit. Access to refrigerationthrough ownershipof onerefrigerator per household,is not the only way of addressingthe storage of perishables. Innovativeways need to be found to provide easy and convenient access to acquiring perishables. Low-income urban households living in informal urban settlements, for example, can obtain daily supplies of fresh fruit and vegetables from informal dealerslocated at strategic points in these areas. It is not known whetherpurchase prices are higher in these areas but the time and cost of transportation to get to the closest shopping centrecan offset higher prices.

2.2.6 Television,radio andhi-fl (media) Television, radio and hi-fi consume only small amounts of energy. They are, however, important in that they provide poor urban households with recreational and educational opportunities. Williams (1994: 33) contends that the poor attach a high valueto accessing these services. Dry cell and vehicle batteries are most often used for this end-use. Research on battery use is scattered andthere is no informationavailable on a nationalscale. Percentages ofbattery usage are available for some regions.On average,21% of householdsin the PWV and 30% in the DurbanFunctional Region(DFR)use them. Theirusage was found to be the highestinformalnon-electrifled townships, 59% of which use them.

2.3. Energy demand projections

Themost recent workon demand projections for low income households is presentedby Trollip (1994) and Afrane-Okese (1995). As stated earlier, Troffip's work extracts information and attemptsto draw together 170 studies completedover the last five or so years on energy related end-use andconsumptionpatterns. This information is evaluated in terms of the determinantsof Afrane-Okese (1995) estimates demand projections for the period 1993 to 2010 for the three climatic zones identified in his study and which were explained earlier in this paper. He uses a scenarioapproach to determinetheseprojections. The scenariosinclude a Base Case Scenario, an EnergyEfficiency(EF) Scenario, an Electrification (EL)Scenarioanda Combined (CO) Scenario. It is pointed out that these scenarios are quite crudeand were done mainlyforillustrativepurposes. The Base Case Scenario assumes that there are no direct major developmentinterventionsin energysupply options for low-income households. The EF scenario introducesenergy efficiency policy interventions into the Base Case. The EL scenario contemplatespossible fuel/appliance switches among low-income householdsresultingfrom the proposed major electrification drive. TheCO scenariois a combination of the electrification and energyefficiency interventions. 2.3.1 Low-Income household electricitydemand Figure 2.6 presented by Afrane-Okese (1995: 35) provides the national electricity demand projections in terms of climatic zones/regions for low-income households from 1993 to 2010 based on the four scenarios described above. From the Base Case perspective, low-income householddemand for electricity increases from 28.8 millionGJ in 1993 to about39.4 millionGJ in

EDPC

Chapter2:Household end-use
2010 indicating an

18

increase of 10 million GJ over a period of 17 years. Figure 2.6 further demonstrates that energy efficiency measures in low-income households could lower the electricity demand growth in such a way that the increase in demand over this periodwould only be about 6.7 millionGJ. In terms of the EL scenario,the demand for electricity increasesby 45 million GJ by 2010, at an annual growth rate of 9%. The CO scenario, however, illustrates this increase to be only 28.5 millionGJ (a 35% reduction compared to the EL scenario) at an annual demand growth rate of 6%. It is evident that the simultaneous introductionof successfulenergy efficiency measuresinto the electrification programmewifi no doubt decrease the demand for electricity significantly.
2.3.2 NatIonal Energy demand projectIons for different fuels Afrane-Okese (1995:36-7) comparesthe national energy demand projections for each fuel as well

as for all fuels combinedin Figure2.7. Thefigure indicatesthat for LPG and paraffin,the energyefficiency measuresintroduced are not adequate to effect any visible reduction in demand over the period 1993 to 2010. However,the electrification programme seems to result in a reasonable reduction in demand for LPG and paraffin. It also demonstrates the wisdom in combining energy efficiency measures and electrification in terms of other fuel usage like those ofLPG andparaffin. As far as coal usage is concerned, efficiency measuresalone do not seem to result in immediate negative growth in demand over the given period. Electrification alone would result in immediatenegative growth in demand and a combination of the two would decrease demand much further. Figure 2.8 illustrates'that alternativepolicyoptions seemto offer some solutions. If fuel switching and applianceswitchingfollowthe trends assumed under the Electrification Scenario, it could be expected that electrification alone can lower the growth of the national energy demand significantly' (Afrane-Okese 1995).The EfficiencyScenario contributesto a significant decrease in nationalenergy demand over the period 1993to 2010.

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EFFICIENCY SCENARIO

16

14 42 40
12

t
D C
10

-i3836

o
U
U) 2
C)

C C) E
C)

34
__________ ___________________
____________

IFIL.L ;ii
32
I—

0 30

TOTAL

tJHL'LiLTAL
1993 1995

2000 Year

2005

2010

Year

TEMPERATE

—è—TEMPERATE

—4-— HOT-DRY

HOT-

DRY

——HOTHUMID

L

L
r
25

ELECTRIFICATION SCENARIO

COMBINED SCENARIO

100

90

20L
C
C)

80
60

r ::L 23j_
-

/::
IC)

110g.

V C
E

50
C)

1
i—

40
30


rT0TAL
—*—TEMPERATE —E—HOT-DRY
—4——HOT-HUMID


-1

30

5L

20.
1993 1995 2000 2005 2010

I::L.i 31II..IIb0
2tJ1U

-2 1—

19

?UUU

ZUUb

-10

Lull

TOTAL

—h-—TEMPERATE

Year

Year

—*--HOT

DRY HOT-HUMID

L

Figure 2.6 Electricity demand projections: sector by year
Source: Afrane-Okese (1995: 35)

r
ELECTRICITY
75 C 65

ALL FUELS

280

-

z 4—
4—
55
Ui

260

----• -z 4
C
-J

240

-J—

C_i

4.— I—

0 I-

::::::T:T
I45 35 2010 1993 1995 2000 YEAR

g
25 1993 1995 YEAR
r—.—BASECASE —U—EFFICIENCY COMNED

4 I0 I2000 2005

1993

1995

2000

2005

2010

2005

2010

YEAR

—•— BASE CASE

—U—EFFICIENCY

—A--. ELECTRIFICATION

—*(-—- COMBINED

L--TRIFIC
-

—--—BASECASE

—U—EFFICIENCY

L

—A——ELECTRIFICATiON —4-—COMBINED

WOOD -,
100

COAL

C

z 4—
z 4
Ui

1

U", 4 I0
1993 1995 2000 2005 YEAR

Cj

I0 I2010

1993

1995

2000

2005

2010

I
-

65 1993
BASE CASE

1995

2000 YEAR

2005
—U-•— EFFIcENCY

2010

YEAR
BASE CASE

40
—U—EFFICIENCY
COMBINED

—*—EFHCIENCV

L_ELECTRIFICATION --*—COMBINED

—A—ELECTRIFICATION——COMBINED

Figure 2.7 Total demand projections for different fuels, all climatic sectors by year
Source: Afrane-Okese (1995: 36)

CEFFICIENCY SCENARIO

BASE CASE SCENARIO

450 120 __________________________________________ 400

ç
80

230

______
300 250
C 50

350

=

(
C

80 ________________________________

;
220

E

0
30 20
10
0

iooL4
E
200
i...

60 ____________ ______

______

____________

60 40

___________________________________ 150
L

.
TOTAL DRY

E W

100

e 215

20
210 1993 1995 2000 2005 2010

0
—è——TEMPERATE -)E— HOT-DRY

°tIIi1iL
2010

1993

1995

2000

2005

PTOTAL
Year

—è—TEMPERATE

—4—HOT HUMID

250 80 240 235 C 90

HOHUM

ELECTRIFICATION SCENARIO

COMBINED SCENARIO
250

100

—-

90L.
20
E a,
0
225

70 _____________ c60
220
TOTAL

80


TEMPERATE
—HOT-HUMiD

0

50 40
210 1993

0

0E50______
180 170 1995 2000 2005 2010

I
TOTAL

H'

30

20

215 10 ___________________________________

________________
j

0
2010

245

—fr—TEMPERATE

1993

1995

2000

2005

Year

Year

——HOT DRY
—4—HOT-HUMID

-

-

-

Figure 2.8 Energy demand projections: sector by year,
Source: Afrane-Okese (1995: 34)

all fuels

CHAPTER THREE

SUPPLY-SIDEENERGY EFFICIENCY INTERVENTIONS

3.1. Introduction
This chapter reviews the current practices of energy suppliers with respect to energy efficiency anddemand-sidemanagement. Suppliers' application and policy-makers' contributionto energy efficiencymeasuresare also examined.

3.2. Eskom's IEP and RDSMP
the largest supplier of electricity to residential households in South Africa, defines integratedelectricity planning (JEP) as a 'process which aims to reduce the cost of electricity by selecting an optimal mix of demand-side and supply-side programmes with which to satisfy customers' needs' (Eskom 1994). Eskom employs Residential Demand Side Management Programmes (RDSMP) as a toolof IEP. Demand side management was defined in chapter one of this paper as 'a supply authority management scheme, which is end-user informed' (Thorne
Eskom, 1995: 96).

Theobjectives of Eskom's RDSM include the following (Ligoff1993: 2):

• optimising the utilisationof surpluscapacity; • sustaining the decrease in the real priceof electricity in the long term; • increasing electricity's competitiveness in the smallcustomer energy market; • contributingtowards the nationaleconomy; and • contributingtowards environmentalconservation and awareness. Eskom essentially adopted DSMP as a means of reducingthe demand on the electricity load at
peak time (Eskom 1995: 16). Its current RDSM programmesare outlinedbelow. • Time-of-use tariffs (TOU) This is a time-differentiated pricing structure which can be used to extract the desired market responsefrom smallcustomersor residentialhouseholds. • Waterheatingload management Water heating typically constitutesabout 40% of a domestic load (Ligoff 1993: 17). This end-use is often seen as having the greatest potential for load shifting since electric water heaters do not have to be switched on at the time of use. Eskom has four sub-programmes associated with water heating load management. These
include:

Promotion of appropriate hot water usage

The intention of this programme is to promote appropriatewater heating systems which are available in the country at the moment such as efficient showerheads andso on. • New geyser design New geysers are to be designedand marketed to take into account TOU tariffs, extended ripple control switching and solarheater adaptation. • Solar waterheating This programme is aimed at developing and marketing cost-effective solar water heating in conjunction with electric water heating systems. • Heatpumps The intention of this programme is to develop and test cost-effectiveheatpumps and to market these as efficientwater heating systems.
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22

Chapter3: Energy efficiencyinterventions Appliancelabeling

23

This programmesaims to create an awareness among customersof the relative running costs of appliances. Eskom intends to rate appliances in terms of their relative energy efficiency. Initial appliances targeted include fridgesand freezes. • Thermalefficiency Eskom's load research has shown that the demand of low-income communities is particularly sensitive to changes in temperature with space heating constitutinga major component of the after diversity maximum demand (ADMD). This contributes directly to both morning and
evening peaks.

Efficient lighting

This programme of Eskom's intends to promote the use of compact fluorescent lights as well as other efficient lightingsources.

• CombinedDSM programmes
Figure 3.1 provides an indication of the impact on a domestic load profile given the combined
DSM programmes.
HOUSEHOLDADMD(ltW)

33 STANDARD PROFILE
3

23
2

ADMD

:3.3kW

kWh/MONTh: 873

13

03 0
1'
21

HOURS HOUSEHOLDADMDkW) 2.1 2 • PROFILE WITH COMBINED
1.9

I.8
1.7

DSM PROGRAMMES
ADMD

1.6

13
1.4
1.3

:1.93kW

kWhIMONTH:574

1.2
1.1

0.91
0.8 0.7 0.6

03

0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

0

FIS]51T1,i(. ii ( 6' K
HEATER

14

HOURS

. iJ ' is" 2
LIGHTS

GEYSER

fl&1DGEIFRff2IJ.

COOKING

E

OTHER

Figure 3.1 Impact on a domestic loadprofilein response to the combinedDSM
programmes

Source: Liggoff 1993

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Chapter3: Energy efficiencyinterventions

24

3.2. Eskom'senergyefficiencyfunding

Eskom's five year funding commitment of R238 683 000 to researchbetweenthe years 1994 and 1998 includesan allocation of R2 million(2.2%) to energy management systems where the focus is on energy efficiency and conservation (Eskom 1993). In the current year (1995) an amount of

R630 000 has been allocated to the thermal performance of dwellings and adequate and affordable energy services for the urban poor(Eskom TRI 1995).

3.3. Local authorities' application of DSM Local authorities in South Africa utilise DSM in a very limited way. Their motivation is somewhatsimilar to that of Eskom's, that is to reduce the demand on the electricity load at peak
time.

• Ripple Control This involves the direct control of hot water geysers by switching them off at peak times. This measure is popular with municipalities because of the direct economic benefits the municipality derivesthrough the improvementin load factor and the reduction of the purchase cost of power from Eskom (Anderssenand van der Merwe 1989: 88). • Tariffs Time-of-use tariffs are mainly utilisedby municipalities in South Africa to affect demand. Where tariffs are used, they are based on marginal cost, time-of-use and time-of-day. Others are specifically designed to alter the load shape of the municipalsupplier. According to Anderssen and van der Merwe, the use of tariffs is rarely employed to 'influence user behaviour and to improveload factor' (1989: 90).

Communication

In some instances there is an attempt by municipalities to communicate with customers about the most efficient way of using electrical energy. This usually takes the form of a newsletter accompanying the customers'electricity account. The accountitself, however, does not explainin any great detail to the customer how electricity is utiised and how savings could be made. Electricity accounts are generally set up to suit the needs of accounting departments within municipalities rather than the customers they serve.

Load shedding relays

Municipalities are known to discourage their customers from the simultaneous use of stoves and hot water cylinders. These are often also communicated in a newsletterwhich is often not the most effective means of communication. The effectiveness of this strategy has neither been measurednor documentedby municipalities. • Pumped storagescheme

Anderssen and van der Merwe (1989: 93) report that the Cape Town City Council operates a successful pumped storage scheme at Steenbras whichensures a very high Eskomload factor.
3.3.1 Energy efficiencyfunding - localauthorities Figures 3.2 and 3.3 representthe typical format of the expenditureaccounts of two of the largest local authorities' electrical engineering departments in South Africa, namely Cape Town and Johannesburg. Funding towardsenergy efficiency programmesis not specified and ifincluded in the category 'other' in the case of Cape Town, constitutes only a minute percentage of this department's expenditure.

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25

CT CITY COUNCIL EXPENDITURE 1993/94: ELECTRICALENGINEERING DEPARTMENT

ESKOM 50%

CAPITAL CHARGES 11%

SALARIESAND WAGES
15% RESERVE OF OTHER FUNDS 9% 5%

RELIEF OF RATES 10%

Figure 3.2 CapeTown City Council Electrical Engineer's Department expenditure (1993/1994) Source:CapeTown City CouncilElectrical Engineer's Department's AnnualReport(1993/94)

ANALYSIS OF EXPENDITURE J'OBURG ELECTRCITYDEPT. :

1993/1994 R 1 026 381 046
ELECTRICITY PURCI-IASED
31%

CAPITAL

COAL,FURNACEAND FUELOIL 7%

TO CONTRIBUTION RATE MJNTBNANCE&
OPERATION 26% ACCOUNT 24%

Figure 3.3 Johannesburg City Electrical Engineer's Department expenditure Source: Johannesburg City ElectricalEngineer's Annual Report (1993/94)

There is no indication in the literature surveyed that local authorities take account of thermal comfort when they constructhousing developments for low-income households.

3.4. DMEA, energy efficiency and funding

The Departmentof Mineral and Energy Affairs' Energy for Development directorate supports policy research projects on energy efficiency to inform its policy making. For example, it introduced a manual containing guidelines for housing boards which contain thermal comfort
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Chapter3: Energyefficiencyinterventions
considerations.

26

Some of its other work on energy efficiency in the urban household sector is incorporated into the majorstudies reviewedin chapter 2 and listed in the bibliography. There is currently very little explicitly stated national policy on energy in housing development including considerations about thermal performance. Minimum standards through regulation governing planning anddevelopmentof formal housing are generallyapplied. This department is, however, largely responsible for providing funding for research in the area of energy efficiency in the low income urban household sector. Figure 3.4 indicates that the budgetaryallocationfor this department is R716 374 000 for this year. It forms roughly 0.2% of the total government expenditureaccountfor the current financial year.

Admnistration 3%

/

Mining 2%

F'iner ecxnonc
studes 0.5%

IN

Regiiatioriof regional rnr'rng activities 3.5%

I

Energymanagement 3%

Asscdatedservices
88%

Figure 3.4 Department of Mineral and Energy Affairsbudget allocation- 1995/96 Source: Department ofFinance (March 1995)

The most noticeable feature about the DMEA's budget is its huge allocation to 'associated services'whichis undefinedin the public informationavailable on budgetaryallocations for the current fiscal year. The DMEA, however, confirmed that 68% of the 88% allocated to this category goes towards nuclearenergy. It was further confirmedthat of the 68%, R311 millionis a direct subsidyto the Atomic Energy Corporation(AEC). Only 3% of the DMEA's budget is allocated to energy management which refers to the department's researchfunding commitment to ensure the optimal utilisation of energy sources. Figure 3.5 depicts the breakdown of the department's expenditure on energy management, the largest share of which goes towardselectricity (34.5%). This portion is allocated to research into electricity and gas (8.54%), energy efficiency and coal (25.58%), energy and environment
(65.86%).

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Chapter3: Energy efficiencyinterventions
Planning 6.5%

27

Administration

Development 26.5%

Transport 7%

Electnaty 34.5%

Figure3.5 Breakdown of DMEA energy expenditure for 1995/6 Source:DMEA (1995) 3.4.1 Energy policywhite paper (Energy Policy Discussion Document)

This purpose of this document is to provide a systematic framework for government, energy suppliers, users and other stakeholdersto participate in dialogue around a new energy policy directivefor SouthAfrica.

Thedocument covers energyefficiency in the following areas: • the development of an energy efficiency agency within the Department of Mineral and EnergyAffairs; • the promotionof energy efficiency by the state through the developmentof knowledge and informationon sectorsandapplicationswhere energy is used inefficiently; • the introductionof energy efficiency into statebuildingsand facilities; • the establishmentof a nationalprogramme aimed at improving the thermal performance of
low-cost housing;

• the improvement of appliance energy efficiency through the application of minimum standards, establishingappliancenorms and labeling and introducing import barriersbased on applianceperformancestandards andnorms;and • the controlof hot water geysersystems. The areas consideredin the EnergyPolicy Discussion Document no doubt covera wide range of issues pertinent to energy efficiency. These willbe evaluatedin the following chapter.

3.5. The National Electrification Forum (NELF)
NELF was a forum of non-statutory and statutory stakeholdersinvestigating a range of policy issues with a view to increasingthe rate of electrification of the householdsector. NELF's working group for the end-use of energy and the environmentproduced a number of working documents in 1994 to consider the provision of domestic energy services, particularly electricity, to end-users. The focus of this group was the satisfaction of domestic energy service needs at lowest life cycle cost.

The reports producedby this working group included the following.

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Chapter3: Energyefficiency(nterv'entlons

28

3.5] me use of energy and equipment This study investigatedthe use of equipment,including characteristics andaffordability, the mix

of energycarriers and the consumption,cost, availability and affordability of energy to users. The policy issuesidentifiedinclude gender considerations, the importance of energy for thermal applications,the unraveling of the benefits and disadvantagesof each of the multiplicity of fuels usedby householdsand addressingthe problemsassociated with the acquisition of appliances. 3.5.2 DomestIc electrical appliances The electrical appliance manufacturing industry's output for 1993 amounted to R2.1 billion. Equipmentof completelybuilt up units worth R700 millionand componentparts worth R500 million were imported for this period. Exports represented R75 million. It is estimated that approximately 15% of total appliance sales were a direct result of new electrification programmes(Basson 1994). This will, however,changeover time. Two salient points mentionedin this work are firstly, the lack of consumerknowledge among new and potential consumers about electricity usage, appliance availability, prices and quality differences and secondly, first time affordability, high life cycle costsand cost of credit. 3.5.3 PassIve/thermal design andhealingof dwellings Concern was expressed about the poor thermal performance of dwellings occupied by low income households. The life cycle cost of heating a dwellingwith poor thermal performance is much higher than one with good thermal performance. Thermalperformance of existing lowincomedwellingscan be considerably improvedthrough retrofittingmeasures. The existing use of specific energycarriersfor space heating, especially coal in the inland urban areas of the country, leads to unhealthy environmental conditions inside and outside the dwelling.It is estimated that the health costs associated with the use of this energy carrierfor all endpurposes,including lossofproductivity,is very high. Health costscan be reduced significantly through passivethermaldesign andretrofitting. 3.5.4 Demand profiles andtheir influenceon electrificatIon strategy Basson (1994)outlines the nature of townshipelectricity demand profiles andstudies associated with these. The present impact of these profilesis quantified and future projections are made based on growth estimates of the various sub-sectors within the South African domestic customerbase. The impactof end-useson the demand profileand the potentialfor some DSM initiatives within the domestic sector are also evaluated. 3.5.5 Energy andenvironmentinterface This report summarises 'the environmental impacts of electrifIcation and details a holistic environmentalmanagementapproach which may be adopted in a national programme such as electrification' (Basson 1994). Important national impacts of electrification are identified along with weaknesses andgapsin the currentprocesses associatedwith the provision of this service. Integrated environmental management (IEM) was evaluated and said to be inappropriate for electrification. It was therefore concluded in this work that 'subject to the implementation of appropriate management systems, electrification will result in net positive or neutral local, regionalandglobalenvironmentalimpacts' (Basson 1994).

3.6. The National Electricity Regulator
The National Electricity Regulator(formerly known as the Electricity ControlBoard) which was establishedin 1995, representsa wide spectrum of stakeholdersand implements public policy for the electricity sectorby issuing licenses for the distribution, transmission and generation of electricity in South Africa. It has the power and mechanisms to determineconditions of supply andset tariffs.

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Chapter3: Erergy efflc!ercy InterventIons

29

It does not, however, engagein anyenergy efficiency measuresat this stageand requiresa clear
communication).

policy directive on energy efficiency to be provided by government (Steyn 1995: personal The Electricity andEskomActsare the main pieces of legislation governing electricity generation and distribution in South Africa. Energy efficiency is not at all mentioned in either of these governingmeasures.
011 and coal companies Thome (1995: 49) points out that oil and coal companies have very limited interestin promoting energy efficiency measures, especially in the household sector since their direct interest lies in increased sales. In any event, the household sector makes a minute contribution of these companies'sales.

3.7.

3.8. Mortgage tenders
There

is no explicit commitment from mortgage lenders to provide low-income housing borrowers with incentives to consider the thermal comfort of their dwellings at the point of construction or in retrofittingmeasuresin the case of already existing mortgage holders. It is estimatedthat R7.5 billionper annum willbe required to construct300 000 homesin order to address thebacklogin the provision ofhousing in the country(de Blanche 1993). This sizeof this potential market may well lead mortgage lenders to consider thermal comfort as part of the financial packageoffered to low-income housingborrowers.

Thorne (1995)points out that a survey of 121 building contractorsrevealed that 70% seldom or never take energy efficiency into account in the design of structures. Figure 3.6 points out the respondents' reasons for this.

3.9. Builders

Ky
A

30

B C _____________________________
D

not cos*effective SA'sclimategoodenough public lacko(interesthot thdemand needs moteresearch

1 —

E

1

N

121

bungconaciote
H

0t°r,P°'
designsdonotuseit

J

i

lackexpenence notapp&abie tohousing all the time applymeffident

gn

then

h
A FIgure 3.6 Builders' reasons forseldom or neverusing energyefficient design Source:Lewis (1993)
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CHAPTER FOUR

ANALYSIS OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES
4.1. Introduction It was stated earlier that integrated energy planning (IEP) demands that the energy sector be integrated with the social, economic, political, environmentaland spatial sectors. It was also asserted that demand analysis requires an understanding of the relationship between energy demand andother variablesso that it can adequately informDSM practices. Chapter three of this paper reviewed the management tools employed by suppliers and the contributionmade by various stakeholdersto energy efficiency practicesin South Africa. This chapter critically analysesthese practices in terms of their applicationto the focus group of this paper.

4.2. Redefining IEP IEP may be a sound methodology or process within which energy policy planning and implementationtakes place since it endeavoursto incorporatethose sectors mentioned above. However, when it is applied to the assessment and understanding of energy efficiency in the urban poor household sector, it is clear that the economic (including technology) and political sectors prevail.While the importance of these sectors is not to be denied, IEP would offer more if thesewere integrated with environmental, social and spatial considerationsas well.In theory,IEP should considerall thesesectors (Eberhard 1994). However,this does not happenin the practical applicationof IEP. Thefate of the energy needs of the poor in SouthAfrica is largely determinedby informationand data sources which are predominantlybased on economics and politics. Macro economics and national demographic data sources are the main informants of energy policy making. Energy end-use, fuel consumptionpatterns and energy efficiency in this sector are analysedin terms of these data sources and while there is a place for the use of such data, there is no indication of what real economic benefitsthere mightbe for the individualhousehold in the urban poor sector

i.e.microeconomic effects. Furthermore,at a broad level, IEP containselements of the basicneeds approach.However, from a political pointof view the basicneeds approachhas been disparagedbecauseit fails to address the unequal power andgenderrelations at the householdlevel (Makan 1994: 5). Furthermore, it is argued that 'the tendency in research to look at households rather than inside them, ignores important intra-householddynamics such as gender and the implications they have on power and controlover resources' (Moser 1993 cited in Makan 1994). Where smaller scale local area researchhas been conducted such as the studyin Cape Town by Thorne and Qangule (1994), the focus is on end-use and consumption patterns rather than sketching a holistic picture of energy as a component of the effective operation of a local urban area.In other words, the questionof what shouldbe done in order to overcome the development problems in this area or region and how should the energy input be arranged to contribute effectively to that process, remainsunresolved. As observedin chapter three of this paper, the DMEA's budgetary allocation is largely informed by macro-economics and politics. It was stated earlier that self-sufficiency and sustainability in energyresources has historically been a high priority for South Africa. The large discrepancy in the allocation of funding between the Atomic Energy Corporation,for example, and energy managementwhich includesfunding for researchon energy efficiency and electricity, would be
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Chapter4:Analysis

31

andre-prioritisedif based on an approachtrue to integratedenergy planningi.e. taking account of all sectors of development.Energyefficiency and the environmentwould then feature as a higher priority on the department'sbudget. The political frameworkwithin which energy planning and service provision takes place, has until now, taken a top-down approach to commissioning research, ignoring the input and participationof marginalisedgroupings such as the poor and, especially, women (the main endusers in the household sector in general and especially in the urban poorhousehold sector). The lackof qualitative researchand decision-making bears testimony to this. Qualitativeresearchas a more intimate and thorough methodology, would undoubtedly include microscaledeterminants whichare likelyto be overlookedin quantitativeresearch. JEP therefore needs to be adapted to include two important criteria when it is utilised as a researchmethodology. These criteriaare integrationandscale and are directlylinked. Integration requiresthat energy planning be part of an overall developmentplan for a local area or region taking intoaccountthe way in which elementsof the samesystemcan be linked in the most costeffective and efficient way. For example, the principle of integration would ensure that the provision of housing includesthe simultaneousprovision of ancillaryservices such as electricity, other utility services, roads and so on. Scale has a quantitativeand qualitativenature to it. The quantitativereignsat the macro or national level and the qualitative, mainly at the micro or local area level. Policy formulationand funding commitments at the nationalscaleare largelybased on quantitativecriteria or projections. While there is some application of this at the micro scale for practical purposes,the deliveryof qualitativeproducts can only happen at this scale, for example, improvedthermalcomfort. Energyplanningwould be more effective if the two scales are utilised in an interdependentway. Existing informationarid data sources on energy efficiency in the urban poor household sector coversmainly the macro scale. Primaryresearch on energy efficiency thereforeneeds to focuson the microscale.
adjusted

4.2.1 IEP and modelling The literature reviewed in this paper clearly emphasisesthat one of the most important macro determinants of a household's energy consumption is its geographical location. The studies mentionedaboveare thereforeneatly categorised into climatic zones. The seasonal nature of fuel usage for different end purposesamong the urban pooris, however,ignored in some of the work completedon energyend-use patterns amongthe urban poorin SouthAfrica.

The data analysedby Afrane-Okese (1995: 16) on spaceheating, for example,shows that coal is usedby a relatively small percentageof householdsin the three climaticzones identifiedin his study. This is not consistentwith the known situation that coal is widely used in the Gauteng province. One of the reasons for this is that some of the data might have come from summer surveysbut was treatedin an 'all-year'fashion. The problem associated with the analysis of data in this way, however, lies in the fact that modelling, in this case the LEAP model, as a technical analytical tool of IEP requires the categorisation of data in a specific way in order for it to be utiuised effectively to determineuser demand. Chapter two describeshow data needs to be arranged so that it can neatly fit into the LEAP model.One aspectof this arrangementis the manipulation of data into three broad climatic zones (temperate, hot-humid andhot-dry). Again, this raises the questionof scalein assessing the focus group of this study. Whilethe model enables the literature to undertake demand analysis at a broad national scale and in this way, inform energy policy at this level, it does not advance the argument for improving energy efficiencyat the microorhousehold scale. It is reiterated here that the predominance of macro scale determinants informing the urban building process prevents urban place-making from responding to the natural conditions
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Chapter4:Analysls

32

prevailing in certain local areas. Macro scale determinants can only be stated broadly and therefore often fail to inform site specific conditions which informantsat a microscale are able to do and therefore contributeoptimallyto the thermalefficiency and comfort of the dwelling. Seasonality needs to be consideredin the provision and planning of energy services for the urban poor household sector in South Africa. In the planning and provision of energy services for the urban poor household sector, thereis a need to adaptIEP in such a way so as to incorporateand bring togethermacro andmicroelements or determinantsinto the process.

4.2.2 DetermInants of DSM Thedeterminantsof DSM were mentionedat the outset of thispaperandare listedhere again for easeofreference. Theyinclude the following (Eberhard 1994):

• • • • • •
• • • • • • • • • • • •

macroeconomic data demographicdata sector andsubsectordata for each end-use consumptionsector andfuel fuelprice cost ofalternativefuels
availability of fuels connection or access charges reliability of supply

uniformityof quality convenience of use
technical and economic characteristics ofenergy-usingequipment andappliance availability of credit income

rate of urbanisation
socialpreferences
acceptability

knowledgeof potentialusers The literature on energy efficiency mirrors some of these criteria or determinants and DSM strategies employed by suppliers at the national level, are also well informedby them. The last three, however, i.e. social preferences, acceptability and knowledgeof potential users, while in some instancesdocumented (Thorne and Qangule 1994) are not widely used to inform analysis on energy end-use and consumption patterns among the urban poor household sector. in identifying the elements of a gender-sensitive planning approach, Makan (1994) recognises the needfor a holisticapproachwhich emphasisesan in-depth understandingof energyend-users. These three determinantshave a qualitative touch andcan be determinedonly at a smaller scale. For example, knowledgeof users and acceptability of energy services or supply to the user, can only be thoroughlyexploredat a smaller local area or household scale. Hence, the importanceof scale andqualitative researcharises once more.

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Chapter4:Ana!ysls

33

Williams (1994: 10) states that 'there are numerous determinants of energy demand some of which can be describedas macro, that is, external to the household,while others act at the micro level, within the householditself.'These microscaledeterminantsare listedbelow.

• householdsize, includinglodgers(concept of numbereating from the same 'cookingpot')
• • • • • • • • • • • • house structure,insulation,orientation, number ofrooms tenurialrights water supply type householdincome, includingpatterns and reliability expenditureon all householdrequirements status (gender,age,education) of fuel and applianceuser extraordinaryenergyuse, feasts, funerals preferences, for example, dietary
home-based productive activities

health andsafetyconsiderations fuelprices,includingalternatives
availability and access to energy carriers

• reliability of supply anduniformityof quality • cost of access to energycarrier,for exampleelectricity connection fee • appliances,source,cost, length of ownership

multipleend-uses From an energy efficiency and end-user perspective, the criteria listed above should include considerations which examine the urban poor householdsector's energy needs in an all-inclusive way.This is significant in two ways. Firstly, researchwillbe based on the needs of this sector and not on demand, which has an economic implication. Needs are defined as the energy requirementsexpressed by the target group itself. This is distinguishedfrom demand which is inferred from datacollected from a survey where the representavityof the sample is determined outside the user community and from a research perspective. Secondly, energy considerations will not only focus on the household itself but on other energy-related aspects as well. For example, end-users,especially in the low-income bracket,would take accountnot only of the enduses focused upon in the literature i.e. cooking, space heating, water heating, lighting, refrigerationandmedia but would considertransportationas well. In fact,transportationis an importantaspect of anyend-user's energy-relatedconsiderationsand constitutesthe meansby which urban areas are connected to one another. It would constitute a very importantenergy consideration for anyeconomically activehouseholderin the focusgroup of this study if his/her livelihood depends on traveling/commuting betweenhomeand a place of work. it is important to note that the financial benefits of employment enable households to acquireaccess to other energycarriers necessaryto runthehousehold. The structure and form of the South Africancity is not very conduciveto efficient traveling and commuting(Boerne and Hatfield 1994), especially for the urban poor household sector who most often reside on the urban periphery and away from higher order urban opportunitieslike places of work, hospitals, tertiary educational institutions and so on. City structure is oriented to accommodate mainly road transportation and especially the private motor-car which in itself presents problemssuch as those of congestion and pollution. The private motor vehicleis not a
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technical and economic characteristics of appliance-fuel combination, convenience of use,

Chapter4:Analysls costs. Household energy needs very affordable commoditygivenits high entry-and-operating and demandshould thereforetake intoaccount transportationrequirements. An unresolved question related to energy efficiency which was mentioned earlier is that concernedwith the strategies householdsthemselvesemployto conserveenergy sources. This has a direct bearing on the extent to which households themselves are involvedin energy research, policy and decision-making. Again, qualitative research would include participatory planning methodologies which include the household itself. The list of determinants should therefore not be seen as conclusive and should be extended to include, among others, scale, transportation energy,participationandqualitative criteria.

4.2.3 SupplIer-Informed DSM Current demand side management programmes are mostly suited to the needs of the supplier rather than the needs of the target group of this paper. Hence, it is referred to as a supplierinformeddemand-sidemanagementtool. Demand-sidemanagement programmes employed by utilities and distributorstend to focus on direct load controlto reduce peak load. Eskom'sfocus, for example, is mainlyon the utilisationof its surplus capacity and sustaining the decrease in the real price of electricity. Its RDSM programmes are focused on reducing peak demand especially in the domestic sector. Local authoritiesengage in demand side managementpracticesfor much the same reasons, that is, to reduce the demand on the electricity load at peak time. Improving thermal performance as a DSM tool, is an important and cheap option which can be incorporatedinto the country's housing and electrification programmes and from which benefits can be derived for suppliers and endusers alike, especially end-usersin the urban poorhouseholdsector. Whilethere are meritsin the applicationof other tools such as solar waterheating and appliancelabeling, the questionof this sector's ability to gain easy and affordable access to appliances,needs to be addressed and
overcome.

Other than serving the direct interests of suppliers or distributors,energy efficiency measures employedby them are seldom based on end-users' energy needs. Hence, DSM is essentially a supplier-informed managementtool. Suppliers of electricity are informedby electricity demand, not end-users'energyneeds and multiple fuel considerations. Hence,their focus on technological andeconomic solutionsto energyefficiency in the householdsector. So, what benefits are to be gained by the urban poor household as end-user other than active attempts on the part of distributors of electricity to improve the thermal performance of lowincome urban households through retrofittingor supporting the thermal comfortof new housing developments? Many low-income urban households do not have access to electricity at all. If efficiency refers to the optimal usage derived from the supply of energy sources at the least financial cost to the user community and the supplier and energy efficiency incorporates the principles of sustainability, equity and efficiency defined earlier in this paper, then the applicationof supplier-informedenergy efficiency interventionshave not been very successful in the urban poor household sector. Anderssenand van der Merwe (1989: 96) identify the possible factors which inhibit municipal distributors' application of effective DSM programmes. These include, among others, a 'topdown' regulatory climate. What is meant by this is that existing regulatory and governance measureson electricity distribution in South Africa, are very controlled and therefore limiting in termsof permitting local authoritiesto be creative about demand-sidemanagementpractices. As stated in chapter three, energy efficiency is not cateredfor in the regulationsgoverningelectricity distribution, namely the Electricity and EskomActs. The other important inhibitingfactor mentionedby Anderssenand van der Merwe (1989: 97) is the fragmentednatureof the South Africanelectricity distributionsystemwhich is not conducive to DSM. The country has a large number of local authorities.The effort to persuade so many
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Chapter4.Ano/ys/s

35

municipalitiesto adopt DSM as a managementtool is quite an onerous task, especially if returns on their 'investment' cannot be guaranteed and/or measured in monetary terms. Incentives are therefore required to convince municipalities and smaller distributors about the merits of appropriateDSM programmes.

Again the question of demand analysis versus households' expressedenergy needs is exposed. The economic culture of suppliers is to ensure a return on their 'investment'. Returns on DSM 'investments' cannot alwaysbe quantified and are at times more beneficial to the end-user than the supplier,for example, the promotion of multiple fuelusage. Investment in end-use efficiency infrastructureby local authorities,such as the provision and promotion of natural or coal gas piping to households, is not seen as a priority against electricity distributors' supply-side
investments.

It is the business of local authorities to recover revenue, hence the emphasis on the sale of

electricity! This practiceneeds to be re-evaluated againstthe principleof equitable and affordable access to energy services by the end-user, especially the urban poor household sector. Institutionaland supply-sidemanagement arrangementsneed to develop their practices and reprioritisetheirfunding in accordance with the government'sproposedelectrification programme and other demand-side or needs-basedinformants. There are many benefits to be gained from certain DSM interventions by end-users and suppliers alike. Thermal efficiency is one such example. The energypolicydiscussion processwhich culminatesin an energysummittobe held on 20 and 21 November 1995 where relevant issues are to be placed on the national energy policy agenda, should be regarded as an important medium through which the promotionof energy efficiency practices in the urban poor household sector can be effected in such a way that it will ifiter through to the micro-scale context. It is through these kinds of processes that appropriate DSM strategies can be lobbiedfor so that they can be implementedat the micro scale.Processes such as these together with government policy-making can also be effective in influencing indirect supplierstakeholderslike those ofbuildersand mortgagelenders. Also, in the past, funding commitments from national and local government were the main sources of dictatingthe structureand form of a single dwellingaimed at housing the urban poor. A singleamount (sayR40 000) would be madeavailablefor the construction of one dwelling.The focus therefore was on constructing a finished product worthR40 000. Other considerationslike building materials and orientation which contribute to thermal comfort, were not taken into account. Attempts should be made to turn thisprocess around by allowing the planning process to dictate the funding commitmentto the constructionof the dwellingunit so that it can be done properlyfirst time round. Thorne(1995 : 50) recognises that 'mortgage lendersenter into 20 to 30

year relationshipswith borrowersduring which borrowersare requiredto pay back loans. If the borrower is using less of his or her resourceson keepingthehousewarm,this may imply that the borrower is able to afford larger loans in the first place and is in a better position to honour repayment obligations'. The relationshipand potential for partnershipsbetween policy-makers andinformantsof the policy-making process,should be exploredmorein the future.

4.3. Energy efficiency and fuels other than electricily Theliterature reviewedon energy efficiency revealsthat suppliers of LPG, coalandparaffin have no real interest in promotingenergyefficiency in the urban poor householdsector. The question arises, however, whether the onus should be on suppliers to do this or should it be on government as protector of the marginalised,promoter of energy efficiency and advocate of equitable access to energy services. The most powerful tool available to government is that of regulation. Regulations governing the processing and distributionof such fuels should therefore be examinedand amendedto takeaccountof energyefficiency,health and safety measures. Some researchhas been initiated by the DMEA into low-smoke fuels as a solution to household air
pollution problems(Dickson et al 1995).
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Chapter4:Analysls

.36

In chapter three of this paper, it was suggested that the government'sproposed housing and electrification programmes be used as an opportunity to provide new local areas with the infrastructureto accommodate a mix of fuels in order to increase household'schoices and access to affordable fuels. Nationalurban planninglegislation andbuildingregulations can facilitate this process along with promoting a mixed land use and integrated approach to mass housing
development.

4.4. Energy efficiency and technology
Analyses

of the potential for energy conservation typically begin with estimates of technical opportunity.The first step is to assessenergysavingswhichmight be achieved by the adoption of economically worthwhilemeasures and technologies ... The trouble is that the practical applicationof energyefficient technologies seemsto be impeded by what are routinely referred to as "non technical barriers". The conventional view is thus one in which social obstaclesinhibit the realisation ofproven technical potential(Shove 1995). These words can easily be applied to the DSM tools employedby suppliers to achieve energy efficiency in the household sector. Water heating load management strategies and appliance labeling, for example, include technologies which are either absent, inaccessible or completely foreignto low-incomeurban households. Hence, the social obstacles of affordabilityto acquire these and lack of knowledge or understanding of these technologies on the part of this sector 'inhibit the realisation of proven technical potential' (Shove 1995). A further inhibitingfactor is that of the usage of energy sources otherthan electricity whichcannotfuel these technologies and therefore cannot satisfycertain end-useswith a guaranteed energy saving. The 'social obstacle' of affordabilityis related to the high unemployment rate or low-earning capacityof the target group of this paper. Access to electricity is inhibited by the entry cost of preparing the household for electrification. There are two importantaspectsto considerhere i.e. to what degree can electrification contribute to job creation and how can electricity tariffs be establishedwithina frameworkofintegratedenergyplanning? Shove (1995) recommends a socio-technical approach as opposed to the conventional'technoeconomic' approach to energy efficiency. By this, the author implies that social criteria complement and inform technological requirements for energy efficiency. While the literature reviewedin this paper takes accountof social factors,these are hardly reflectedin the strategies employedto effect energy savingsin the low-income householdsector. More appropriateenergy efficiency measures therefore need to be considered. The end-users themselves can play a significant role in identifying these measures, hence the need for participatory researchat the microscaleto determineappropriateenergyactions to meet the energy needs of this sector. Educationof the supplier and end-users alike (a mutual energy learning process) is required to close the gap between the conventional'techno-economic' and the 'socio-techrücal' approaches. Thereis a place for both as long as they arecomplementary not mutuallyexdusive. and

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CHAPTER FIVE

Conclusion and recommendations
5.1. Introduction Thispaperhas reviewed the literature on energyefficiency in the urban poor household sector of SouthAfrica from an end-user perspective. It attempted to show what informationand research is available on this topic and in what format it is presented. It also attempted to show the responses of suppliers to energy efficiency goals in the planningand provision of energy services to this sector. These responseswere measuredagainstthe literatureon energy demand amongthe
urban poorhousehold sector. The generalconclusions that can be drawn from this paper's analysisare set out hereunder.

5.2. IEP and DSM
The informants of integrated energy planning (IEP) and demand-side management as a component thereofneed to be adapted and revised as a tool for energy projectplanning. IEP is a sound and useful method for informingnational policy planning but is an insufficienttool for energy project planning at the household or micro scale. Furthermore, it should have as its foundation, the qualitative principlesof equity, sustainability and efficiency and should attempt to incorporateall the differentsectors (socio-economic,environmental, spatial andpolitical).

Future research on end-use patterns among poor urban householdstherefore should attempt to develop a check list of determinantsor elements at the micro scale which might influence this sector'sdecisionmaking. This information,in turn, shouldbe utilised to informa DSMP. Socio-economic indicators or variables (affordability, income, poverty, gender and unemployment) need to be included in OSM strategies. This is currently not the case. Also, performance standards which take account of qualitative criteria need to be formulated. The implicationhere is that if the intentionis to build and br electrify a certainnumber of dwellings per annum (quantity), there shouldbe a simultaneous commitment to ensure that these dwellings are well insulated and therefore thermallyefficient (quality of product).So the idea is to use the masshousing and electrification programmesas an opportunityto improve the livingconditions of the urban poor. The restructuring of local government provides an opportunity for integrated micro scale planning to take place. The delimitation of metropolitan areas in South Africa into larger and more manageable local sub-structuresdefine spatialentitieswhkh can facilitate thisprocess. There arethree important considerations here: • the adaptation of the determinantsof IEP andDSM as a component thereofso as to inform a methodologyfor micro scale energyplanning; • the formulationof performance standards forenergyplanningin SouthAfrica; and

• addressingthe questionof whethercurrent DSM policies are firstly, appropriate for thefocus

group of this paper and, secondly, whether they include socio-economic variables in their

application. it is therefore recommendedthat researchbe undertaken to revise and adapt the determinants upon which IEP and DSM as a componentthereof, are based so as to create a methodology for microscaleenergy project planningwhich should incorporatequalitativeas well as quantitative

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Chapter5:Recommendaf!ons
analyses. This research should involve

38

a primary research component for which existing local like those completed by Thorne and Qangule (1994) on new electrification area-based studies, schemes in three areas in the WesternCape and Golding and Hoets (1992) on energy usage in urban blackhouseholdsin selected formalandinformaltownships, could form the basis.
It is further recommended that the appropriate application of existing DSM policies to lowincome urban households be investigated and the inclusion of socio-economic variables be ensured in future strategies.

5.3. Energy efficiency and electrification

The work completed by Afrane-Okese (1995) mentioned in chapter two of this paper clearly shows that the simultaneous introductionof energy efficiency measures and electrification will decrease the demand for electricity significantly. For a large number of poor urban households, current inefficient end-use patterns are likely to continue even when they become electrified. The national electrification programme should therefore incorporatemeasures to address thisissue.There also appears to be an assumptionthat this sector has access to appliances to utilise electricity for end-usessuch as cooking. This is not necessarily the case and where appliances are accessible, electricity is not the most efficient energycarrier for cooking. Most importantly, electrification in urban households should be considered alongside and in conjunction with the provisionof other utility services (waste management, water supply, roads etc.) so that an integrated approach to the provision of services can be promoted. This requires the formulationof a prioritised area-based infrastructuralinvestmentprogramme incorporating all services for low-income households. One of the key elements of this programme is to determinehow, from a financial point of view, such investmentwould be funded and how the

issue of affordabilityis to be addressed. Thorne (1995: 96) is cited here again as describingDSM in the context of energyplanning as the 'managementofelectricity usage in order to reducethe life-cycle costsof supply.' It also includes the notion that the most efficient fuels should be encouraged to be used for different end-uses. The restating of Thorne's definitionis to motivate for the national electrification programme not to be seen in isolation from the usage of other fuels by low-income urban households. These households use a number of fuels simultaneously (Basson 1994). It is therefore important to provide them with a choice offuels. The two important aspects to be considered in the planning of a national housing and electrification programmefor the urban poorare therefore:

• the considerationof electricity along with other utility services for the target group of this
paper; and

• encouragingthissector to use the most efficientfuels for differentend-usesby providing safe andconvenientaccess to fuels other than electricity.
It is recommendedthat the preparationand/or planning for the implementation of the national electrification programmebe complementedby researchwork on the provisionof other services as well. It is further recommended research be conducted on the provision of safe and that convenient access to fuels other than electricity so as to widen its choice and encourage the efficient useofenergy sources. 5.4. Energy efficiency and transportation Research determinants should include the varied considerationswhich reflect more accurately the energyneeds of the urban poor household sector. These needs are not only about household

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Chapter5:Recommendatlons

39

fuels. They include energy for transportation to travel between origin (the household) and destination(mainlythe work place). In chapter fourprovided motivationsfor why householdenergyneeds and demand should take into account transportation requirements as well. It was also argued that research on energy efficiency from an end-user perspective,needs to be conducted in a coordinated and integrated way i.e. housing, electrification, transportationetc. should be regarded as elements of the same system. The government's proposed mass housing and electrification programmes provide an opportunityto include other energy-relatedsectors suchas transportation. The transportationsector is also a large consumer of energy which posesother environmentallyrelated problems to the country.There are therefore two aspectsof this sector which need to be investigated.The two are by no means separate but are concerns at different scales. Firstly, at the microscale, the issue of access to energyefficient transportation by low-income urban households needs to be investigated.Secondly, at the macroscale, an environmentalimpact assessment of the transportation sector needs to be undertaken with a view to making this sector more energy efficient.

It is recommendedthat access to energy efficient transportationby low-income urban households
andenergyefficiency in the transportationsector, be investigated.

5.5. Thermal performance and integrated design Improving the thermal performance of housing structures is not necessarily a priority among

suppliers like Eskom and local authorities. National building regulations and urban planning legislation do not compel suppliers of housingproductsto attend to thermal comfort. While informationon passive thermal design is abundant, it has not been utilised very well in the design and implementationof low-income urban housing developments. This literature is also limited because of its focus on the dwelling only. Broader locational aspects such as the soil conditionsof land, which can make a significant contribution to thermalcomfort should also be considered in thermal design. Energy end-use demand andconsumptionpatternsare considered at a scale which is suitable for the formulationof national energy policy. Climatic zones, for example, are divided into six or three broad zones for thispurpose. However,micro-climatic conditionsneed to be studied very carefully in order for optimalpassive thermal designto take place. Natural elements (sun, wind, vegetationand so on) which should inform designat this scale,differfrom local area to local area. Future studies on the improvement of thermal performance and energy efficiency in the provision of low costhousing thereforeneed to focus on the following: • the developmentofpilot projects where energy efficiency measurescanbe introduced; • facilitative policiesandlegislationto entrenchthermaldesign in the provisionofhousing;

• new housing developments should be targeted as models where thermal design can be •

introduced,monitored and evaluated; broader (than the dwelling's structure)planningissueslike the siting of local urban areas on land which is generallysuitable for urban development. These and other concerns mentioned in chapter three of thispaper must be considered at the very outset of the planningprocess; and the sensitivities oflow-cost housing design to the natural elements prevailingin local areas.

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Chapter5:Recommendatlons

40

5.6. Appliances This paper has not focused much on applianceefficiency because it is being investigated as a separate research paper within the Energy and Environment Programme. It is, however, necessary to reiterate that the continuation of research in this field especially on appropriate labeling, standards,retoolingandfinancing etc., is important andshouldtherefore be supported. 5.7. Energy efficiency funding From chapter three it is clear that Eskom and the DMEA appear to be the only agencies in South Africa which have made some funding available for energy efficiency programmesin the lowincome urban household sector. Suppliers' should be encouraged to reprioritise theirbudgets so
become a higher priority.

that funding for research as well as energy efficiency projects for implementation in this sector

It is recommended that funding be prioritisedso that effective energy efficiency programmescan be considered for implementation and research into appropriate energy efficiency DSM interventions be conducted.In addition, the idea of imposinga levy on commercial energy fuels to fund energy efficiency programmes and the establishmentof an energy efficiency agency shouldalso be investigated.

/

5.8. Education
Energyefficiencyeducationis a two way process. Suppliers'need to understand the energy needs of low-income householdsfrom an end-use perspectiveas much as end-usersneed to learn about the various optionsavailableto them to conserve energy. The areas where educationcan play an importantandimmediaterole includethe following. On the end-users'side:

• • • •

the meaning of energyefficiency; the improvementofthermalperformancein self-made and/or other low- income housing; the safe, convenient andefficient use of energycarriers, including electricity; and

the standards andlife-cydecosts associatedwith dwellingstructuresandappliances. On the suppliers' side: • the true meaningofenergyefficiency from an end-userperspective;

• the role of

householdsector; and

effective and appropriate DSM practices/interventions in the low-income

• the need for socio-economic indicators or variables to be included in the planning and
formulation ofenergy policyincludingthe participationofmarginalisedgroupings.

59.

Energy efficiency in southern Africa It isimportantfor South Africa to understand and learn from its regional counterpartsespecially whilethe climate is right for regional cooperationin the energysector. Zimbabwe, Tanzaniaand Zambiahave the most active energy efficiency programmesin the regionandeither alreadyhave or are close to developinganationalenergyefficiency strategy(Stiles 1995). Zimbabwe is in the process of developinga national energy efficiency improvementprogramme.
Tanzania already has a national energy policy which includes energy efficiency. Its implementation is, however, stifledby a lack of finance from government. Zambia's Department of Energy has an energy efficiency policy in place which requires that stakeholders, mainly

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Chapter5:Recommendations

41

industry, provide governmentwith informationon the best ways of improvingenergy efficiency in the country. It is recommended that a literature review be undertaken on energy efficiency and DSM interventions in the urban householdsectors of these three countriesin southern Africa.

5.10. Coordinationand integrationof services For the provision and planning of energy services to be effective in the low-income urban householdsector, it is necessary that direct or indirect suppliers and providers of such services, work in a coordinated fashion. At the same time, coordination can facilitate an integrated approach to the planning and developmentof other utility services such as street lighting in
conjunction with energy services. Furthermore, there is also a necessity for partnerships to be formed among suppliers, researchers in the energy sector and end-users. While the complexity of such an arrangement is acknowledged given the conflict of varied interests, the current paradigm of restructuring, transparency andlegitimacy in SouthAfrica providesan opportunityfor this to happen.

It is recommended that this aspect of energy efficiency be expanded towards achieving coordination among variousstakeholders. It is further recommendedthat the application of DSM by municipalities, also be expanded with a view to formulatinga coordinatedOSM programme
for the anticipated restructured local authorities in conjunction with Eskom as the major distributorof electricity.

5.11. Conclusion
Theinformationavailable on energy end-use patterns which is utilised to inform energy demand often reflects energy supplied to end-users as opposed to actual energy consumption. Surveys informedby end-user data such as the studies completed by Afrane-Okese (1995) and Troffip (1994), frequentlyomit qualitative factors about usage patterns. This has the effect of obscuring importantfactors regardingwhy and how consumptionof energy sources takes place and may significantly distort demand analysis of the urban poor household sector. For energy efficiency measures to be successfully introduced and applied in the urban poor householdsector, an indepth understanding of the energy needs of this sector is required. It is therefore proposed that energyplanning for the urban poorhouseholdsectorbegins to focuson the microscale where a thoroughunderstandingof the energy needs of this sector can be obtained.

The energy efficiency and demand-side management practices employed by distributors of electricity are appropriate for the managementof their loads. However,these practices are not necessarily appropriate for the urban poor household user community.The reasons for this are: firstly, a large proportion of this sector do not have access to electricity and where electricity is available, there is still a reliance on other fuels like paraffin and secondly, this sector's energy end-use consumption patterns are largely influenced by socio-economic factors (for example, affordability) which make such patterns very different from the conventional electricity-based usage patterns of otherurban households.

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