Sustainable Resource Use Papers Energy

By: Frank Spencer MSc(Eng), Alt-e Technologies Date: 31st October 2008 Version: 1.2 Prepared for: The Sustainability Institute and the City of Cape Town

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Contents
Contents ..................................................................................................................................... 2 Table of Figures .......................................................................................................................... 3 1 2 3 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 4 Terms of Reference ............................................................................................................ 4 Energy Policy and Cape Town ............................................................................................ 6 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 4 National Policy............................................................................................................. 7 Western Cape Provincial Government Policy ............................................................. 9 City of Cape Town Local Government Policy .............................................................. 9 Renewable Energy Incentives ................................................................................... 10

Cape Town Current Energy Scenario Baseline ................................................................. 11 4.1 4.2 4.3 Types and sources of energy ..................................................................................... 11 Sustainability issues with current scenario ............................................................... 15 Current Projections for a Future Scenario ................................................................ 18

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Future Cape Town Energy Scenario ................................................................................. 24 5.1 5.2 Key Process ................................................................................................................ 24 Proposed energy supply ............................................................................................ 25

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Technical Interventions.................................................................................................... 29 6.1 6.2 Production Interventions .......................................................................................... 29 Consumption Interventions ...................................................................................... 30

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Key goals for sustainable energy ..................................................................................... 31 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 Policy ......................................................................................................................... 31 Production ................................................................................................................. 31 Consumption: Residential ......................................................................................... 32 Consumption: Commercial/Industrial ....................................................................... 32 Transport ................................................................................................................... 33

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Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 33

Bibliography ............................................................................................................................. 34

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Table of Figures

Figure 1: Summary of Policy ...................................................................................................... 6 Figure 2: Energy Demand by Fuel Source ................................................................................ 12 Figure 3: Energy Demand by Sector......................................................................................... 12 Figure 4: Total Energy Supply at 2050 - Business as Usual ...................................................... 18 Figure 5: Annual direct and diffuse solar radiation ................................................................. 19 Figure 6: Generalised map of wind power potential in South Africa ...................................... 20 Figure 7: Total biomass energy potential for South Africa ...................................................... 20 Figure 8: Areas with micro hydro potential in South Africa .................................................... 21 Figure 9: Potential job creation: renewable energy vs coal-fired power stations .................. 21 Figure 10: Potential mix of Renewables in the Western Cape ................................................ 22 Figure 11: Potential Power production from Renewables – Western Cape ........................... 22 Figure 12: Total Energy Supply at 2050 - Sustainable.............................................................. 25 Figure 13: Energy Supply by sector at 2050............................................................................. 26 Figure 14: Electricity by Source in 2050 ................................................................................... 27 Figure 15: Generation by Renewables / Fossil 2050 ............................................................... 27 Figure 16: Renewables Contribution 2050 .............................................................................. 28

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1 Introduction
The City of Cape Town faces some dynamic challenges in the near future when it comes to energy and climate change. Currently, practically all of the energy consumed in the city comes from outside of the city’s boundaries or control. This energy includes a large portion of carbon emissions. This paper discusses the current energy scenario in Cape Town, starting with the policy that directs it, through the current energy case, to a scenario of “best sustainable practices”. The paper will argue that, with a little bit of determination, much can be accomplished to bring more energy security to Cape Town while protecting our environment.

2 Terms of Reference
The City of Cape Town requested that thirteen Sustainable Resource Use papers be written. The aims of the Sustainable Resource Papers are:  To demonstrate that the current resource use approach does not make financial and ecological sense over the long term and therefore it is necessary to change over to a sustainable resource use approach  To promote and encourage goals and targets for a sustainable future for Cape Town.

This paper specifically covers the topic of ENERGY. Specific Questions for this paper on Energy are:  What is the ideal mix of energy types for Cape Town (e.g. biofuels, conventional, etc), and how can energy conservation best be achieved. The key points to bear in mind for this paper are: A. B. C. What target/goals should be set for this sector in order to achieve a “Sustainable Cape Town”? Flows per sector Existing Infrastructure – what is sustainable and what is not? Provide a summary of possible technology options and alternatives to better manage the resource on a more sustainable basis; D. E. What are the environmental impacts of current technologies and approaches; What technological solutions could be adopted to make this sector sustainable?

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F. G. H.

Finances: what about ecological costs and the costs of upgrading systems that are not sustainable? Key challenges and problems from a sustainability perspective Emerging policy frameworks – what institutional arrangements and decision making processes are emerging, with respect to more sustainable resource use approaches, and what are their impacts?

I. J. K. L.

Linkages to poverty, inequality, and sustainable resource use How is the future seen/imagined by key stakeholders/experts in the sector? Which ones have a sustainability orientation? What are the dialogues taking place in each sector? order to make this sector more sustainable?

M. What behavioural changes must occur and how can these be incentivized in N. What is unsustainable about CT’s current systems?

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3 Energy Policy and Cape Town
The impact of government policy on the direction of energy cannot be underestimated. Policy is what gives investors and project developers’ direction and surety. The National, Western Cape, and City of Cape Town policies are reviewed below, as well as specific Renewable Energy incentives.

National
1998 Energy White Paper

Provincial WC

Local CCT

1999 Municipal Systems Act #32

2000

2001

Gas Act White Paper on Renewable Energy & Clean Energy Development (Draft) Petroleum Products Amendment Act National Energy Regulator Act Cape Town Energy and Climate Change Strategy Cape Town Energy Futures Report State of Energy Report for Cape Town

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Sustainable Energy Strategy for the Western Cape Renewable Energy Plan of Action for the Western Cape

Cape Town Draft Solar Water Heater Bylaw

Figure 1: Summary of Policy

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3.1 National Policy
During the apartheid years, energy policy was driven by a need to be self-sufficient. The consequence is that South Africa is now dependent on dirty, inefficient fuels, the energy sector is dominated by a few large players, and poor communities have inadequate access to affordable and safe fuels. Current policy represents a shift in direction towards improving access to energy, to particularly for previously disadvantaged communities, although sustainability has yet to emerge as a key priority.

3.1.1 Energy White Paper of 1998 The aims of this paper are to:         Increase access to affordable energy services; Improve energy governance and restructure government assets; Manage energy-related environmental impacts; Secure supply through diversity and open markets; Stimulate economic development – create SMMEs and export opportunities; Assist previously disadvantaged people to gain entry to the energy sector; Allow unrestricted market access to the liquid fuels market; Manage energy-related environmental impacts.

An Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) is promoted as a tool to guide strategic decision making. IRP supports demand-side as well as supply-side options and includes social and environmental factors and externalities. The City of Cape Town Electricity Department has produced a local IRP for the electricity sector in the metro area, which has been approved by Council.

3.1.2 Municipal Systems Act No 32 of 2000 Section 23 of the Act directs municipalities to:   Produce integrated development plans for the medium-term development of their municipal areas to meet the needs of their communities; Provide sustainable services to their communities;

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Promote increased community involvement in the provision of energy services.

3.1.3 White Paper on Renewable Energy & Clean Energy Development (Draft 2002) This Paper:   Recognises the important role of renewable energy technologies in the long-term sustainability of energy in South Africa; Sets a ten-year target of increasing the use of renewable energy in final energy consumption to 10,000 GWh/annum. This document does not provide any specific guidance to the use of Renewables.

3.1.4 National Energy Regulator Act of 2004 This Act mandates NERSA (National Energy Regulator of South Africa) to:    Regulate the electricity, piped gas and liquid fuel markets in South Africa; Promote private sector participation in these industries; Prevent abuse by monopolies.

NERSA should promote access and competition to the markets dominated by Eskom, Petronet and Sasol, although to date little in this space has been achieved.

3.1.5 Petroleum Products Amendment Act 2003, Act 58 of 2003 This Act was promulgated to:     Promote efficient manufacturing, wholesaling and retailing in the petroleum industry; Facilitate an environment conducive to efficient and commercially justifiable investment; Promote the advancement of historically disadvantaged individuals; Create employment opportunities and small businesses in the petroleum sector.

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3.1.6 Gas Act of 2001 The gas act of 2001 was passed to    Provide a regulatory framework for storage, transmission, distribution and trading of gas; Establish a gas regulator; Promote access to transmission by third parties.

3.2 Western Cape Provincial Government Policy
3.2.1 Sustainable Energy Strategy for the Western Cape, May 2007 This document highlights areas in the Western Cape in which sustainable interventions are possible and develops action plans around how to achieve these goals.

3.2.2 Renewable Energy Plan of Action for the Western Cape, 2007 This document contains a detailed analysis of the potential for renewable energy in the Western Cape. Several scenarios from conservative to aggressive renewable energy use are considered, and a renewable energy strategy is proposed.

3.3 City of Cape Town Local Government Policy
3.3.1 State of Energy Report for Cape Town, 2007 This report is a comprehensive baseline summary of all the energy supply and demand per sector in Cape Town.

3.3.2 City of Cape Town Cape Town Energy and Climate Change Strategy, 2005 This document sets sustainable goals on the supply side and demand side of energy, and lists both short and long term targets and measures required to achieve these goals.

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3.3.3 Cape Town Energy Futures Report, January 2005 This report establishes a demand baseline for the City and projects Cape Town’s energy consumption for the future.

3.3.4 City of Cape Town Draft Solar Water Heater Bylaw, June 2007 This proposed by-law seeks to introduce legislation that would require all new houses larger than 100m2 to be fitted with solar water heaters. This law has encountered some legal challenges and is currently on hold.

3.4 Renewable Energy Incentives
There are very few incentives for Renewable Energy project developers. Nevertheless, the following exist:  REFSO - set up by the DME, this body offers funding of R250 per kW of generation potential for renewable energy projects undertaken. This will not make a great impact on the development of Renewables, but does create the message that DME supports renewable energy initiatives.  ESKOM DSM SWH program – this is an incentive scheme providing a subsidy of R2000 – R4000 per SWH system (approximately 10-20% subsidy) installed in a residential house. This is probably not sufficient to drive large scale adoption of SWH, but is considered a positive step in the right direction.  Carbon Credits - Projects which can be proved to reduce carbon emissions can receive funding from the Clean Development Mechanism in the compliance carbon trading markets, or through voluntary trading schemes.

It is likely that a Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff could become available in 2009/2010.

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4 Cape Town Current Energy Scenario Baseline
Currently most households are serviced with electricity, although about 29700 households (approximately 145000 people) are still without (Cape Town IDP 2007). The City of Cape Town’s State of Cape Town report predicts that:  The city’s population growth rate will slow dramatically over the next 15 years, with an expected increase in population of about 300 000 to 3.6 million people by 2021. The report also states that there is a housing backlog of between 265 000 and 300 000 units.  Gross Geographical Product has remained at 4.5% over the last 4 years, and short term predictions are that growth will remain around 4%. Energy is a huge creator of wealth and employment in Cape Town (Sustainable Energy Africa 2007, p.iii).

4.1 Types and sources of energy
Cape Town’s major sources of energy and the energy sectors which consume them are shown in the table and graphs below:
Industry & Commerce 24.76 13.16 4.70 0.44 2.72 10.79 0.56 57.12 38% Local Authority Transport 1.75 0.12 42.29 0.23 14.34

User Group Electricity Petrol Diesel Heavy Furnace Oil Paraffin Jet Fuel LPG Coal Wood Total Total %

PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ %

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Households 17.97

Total 44.47 42.41 27.73

Total % 29% 28% 18% 3% 2% 9% 2% 7% 1% 100%

2.59 0.55 0.04 0.36 21.51 14%

2.10 1%

4.70 3.03 13.62 13.62 3.27 10.83 0.92 70.25 150.98 47% 100%

Table 1: Summary of Cape Town's Energy Consumption (2006)

Sources: Fuel:SAPIA; Electricity: City of Cape Town Electricity Dept, CT State of Energy Report 2003, SA State of Cities Report (SEA 2006), CT Energy Futures Report (2005), Household Numbers in

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Note: 1 PJ = 278 GWh

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Cape Town-Discussion Document (CCT, Aug 2006); Coal: Imibono Fuels Personal Discussion, CT State of Energy Report 2003; Wood: CTSOER 2003

Figure 2: Energy Demand by Fuel Source

Figure 3: Energy Demand by Sector

As can be seen from the graphs, the major sources of energy are Electricity and Liquid Fuels, while Transportation and Commerce / Industry consume most of this energy.

4.1.1 Electricity Cape Town consumed approximately 12,000 GWh (44 PJ or 3,090 kWh/person/year in 2006), which contributed 50 59% of the cities CO2 emissions. Average retail price was 27c/kWh. Some power is supplied directly by ESKOM, and some through the City’s Electrical department. The following graph shows the revenue split between ESKOM and Cape Town for July 2006 – June 2007.

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This installed supply capacity is summarised as follows: Producer ESKOM ESKOM ESKOM CCT ESKOM CCT TOTAL:
Type Transmission lines (Coal) Nuclear Palmiet Pumped Storage Steenbras Pumped Storage Acacia Gas Turbine Roggebaai & Athlone Gas Turbine MW 2600 1800 400 168 171 80 5219 % 50% 34% 8% 3% 3% 2%

Sources: Eskom, CCT Electricity Dept, Andrew Kenny Presentation (Mar 2006)

All of Cape Town’s power is brought in over the ESKOM grid. The Steenbras Pumped Storage facility does not produce any power, it only stores power, and helps level out the difference between low and high demand. The Open Cycle Gas Turbines are extremely expensive to operate compared to the ESKOM supply price. South Africa is currently experiencing an “electricity crisis”, primarily due to capacity issues (demand outstripping supply) and quality of supply of electricity from ESKOM. These directly impact on the service that Cape Town is able to provide. Although most of the electricity is purchased from ESKOM, a small portion of “green” electricity is purchased from the Darling wind farm (5.2MW installed capacity) at a premium price. This is wheeled over the ESKOM grid to Cape Town.

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4.1.2 Liquid Fuels Liquid fuels currently make up 60% of all energy used in Cape Town, primarily for transport, industrial heating and household cooking and heating. Of these, the dominant are petrol, diesel and jet fuel. Cape Town’s average demand for refined liquid fuels is approximately 46,200 barrels of oil per day2.

Calref, the Cape Town based Chevron-owned oil refinery, provides Cape Town with most of her liquid fuels. The refinery processes over 100 000 barrels per day3 and would cost about USD1 billion to replace. The amount of refined fuel imported is expected to grow in the future as South Africa’s demand for fuel exceeds its ability to refine.

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SAPIA fuel sales data for 2006, SAPIA 2007 SAPIA Annual Report 2005

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4.2 Sustainability issues with current scenario
The current energy scenario has a number of fundamental flaws which are discussed below.

4.2.1 Electricity The following concerns exist for the ongoing supply of electricity:  Increasing demand for services with a supply that is currently constrained due to: o Actual transmission capacity into Cape Town. o Ability of ESKOM to meet National peak demands.         Increasing energy demand for water due to increasing water scarcity (possible future desalination plants). Increasing demand for HVAC, refrigeration and water heating, often without using the most efficient technologies4. Dramatically increasing price of electricity from ESKOM (more than 40% pa). ESKOM set targets for reduction in demand, with steep penalties for non-compliance Tariff increases that historically have been below inflation. High Carbon and other emissions from coal based electricity, especially when considering the losses from long transmission lines. Coal is a dwindling resource internationally which will place pricing pressure on local supply to ESKOM. Nuclear (including PBMR) is considered an unsustainable future supply due to massively rising costs5.

4.2.2 Liquid Fuels The following concerns exist for the ongoing supply of liquid fuels:   
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There are ongoing international pressures on the supply of oil. By 2012 there is likely to be a shortfall in the ability to produce enough liquid fuel6. Lack of fuel could impact tourism due to reduce air flights.

In commenting on the growth in energy demand in China: “half the demand growth is die to largely wasted “..Nuclear is so costly and slow relative to its winning competitors that it will retard the provision of energy SAPIA Annual Report 2005

air conditioning and refrigeration” (Lovins & Sheikh 2008, p.39) – there is similar wastage in SA too.
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services” (Lovins & Sheikh 2008, p.3)
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Paraffin for cooking and heating is a dangerous and inefficient fuel choice.

4.2.3 Transport Transport has the following issues in terms of sustainability:    Energy consumption per km per capita is high due to high usage of cars with low occupancy. Busses (Golden Arrow) are poorly designed in terms of aerodynamics and have inefficient engines. Rail, the most sustainable form of transport due to its low energy consumption per km per capita, is not used as extensively as could be possible.

4.2.4 Carbon Emissions High energy usage normally translates directly to high CO2 emissions. CO2 and equivalent emissions are considered to be the primary cause of accelerating climate change. Both electricity and liquid fuels produce a high amount of CO2 emissions, as shown in the table below:
Industry & Local Households Commerce Authority Transport Total Total % CO2 (t) 4362575 6648614 469273 11480462 59% CO2 (t) 8768 3123417 3132185 16% CO2 (t) 968720 17254 1055332 2041306 11% CO2 (t) 346309 346309 2% CO2 (t) 189346 32475 221821 1% CO2 (t) 996658 996658 5% CO2 (t) 30085 149498 179582 1% CO2 (t) 4080 1014072 1018152 5% CO2 (t) 0% CO2 (t) 4586085 9159688 495295 5175406 19416474 100% % 24% 47% 3% 27% 100%

User Group Electricity Petrol Diesel Heavy Furnace Oil Paraffin Jet Fuel LPG Coal Wood Total

Table Showing CO2 Emissions in CT (2006/7)
Sources: Fuel:SAPIA; Electricity: City of Cape Town Electricity Dept, CT State of Energy Report 2003, SA State of Cities Report (SEA 2006), CT Energy Futures Report (2005), Household Numbers in Cape Town-Discussion Document (CCT, Aug 2006); Coal: Imibono Fuels Personal Discussion, CT State of Energy Report 2003; Wood: CTSOER 2003

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Cape Town’s CO2 emissions per capita are 6.4 tons CO2 / person / year (PDG 2007, p.25). Cement and steel, some of the primary building resources, consume a large amount of energy in their production, and thus the embodied CO2 emissions for these materials are extremely high. These are used extensively in the city, and thus these CO2 emissions are imported into the city. A significant number of goods, including food, are imported from far away from the city, increasing the imported CO2 emissions, where some of these goods could be grown more locally.

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4.3 Current Projections for a Future Scenario
4.3.1 Future total energy requirements Assuming a 4% growth in all sectors in a business as usual scenario, the 2050 requirements for energy will be around 529 PJ, broken down as follows:

User Group Electricity Petrol Diesel Heavy Furnace Oil Paraffin Jet Fuel LPG Coal Wood Total Total %

Industry & Local Households Commerce Authority Transport PJ 93.31 128.55 9.07 0.00 PJ 0.62 219.62 PJ 68.34 1.22 74.45 PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ % 24.39 2.30 0.00 14.11 56.02 2.91 296.63 38%

Total 230.93 220.24 144.00 24.39 15.74 70.70 16.96 56.25 4.78 783.98 100%

Total % 29% 28% 18% 3% 2% 9% 2% 7% 1% 100%

13.43 0.00 2.84 0.23 1.86 111.67 14%

70.70

10.91 1%

364.77 47%

Total electrical demand is equivalent to 64,000 GWh.

Figure 4: Total Energy Supply at 2050 - Business as Usual

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4.3.2 Future Renewables projection South Africa has large potential for Renewable Energy and job creation from Renewable Energy, as illustrated by the following graphs from the White Paper on Renewable Energy (DME 2003):

Figure 5: Annual direct and diffuse solar radiation

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Figure 6: Generalised map of wind power potential in South Africa

Figure 7: Total biomass energy potential for South Africa

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Figure 8: Areas with micro hydro potential in South Africa

Figure 9: Potential job creation: renewable energy vs coal-fired power stations

As can be seen from the above, there are opportunities in the Western Cape in all the Renewable Energy sectors to produce energy and employment.

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The Western Cape government has set a target of 12% renewable power source by 2014. In their recently released ‘Renewable Energy Plan of Action for the Western Cape’ (Banks & Schaffler 2007), the following projections can be found:

Transformation Results: Capacity
Scenario: Prog Ren Ref Dem, Capacity: All Capacities
9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000
Megawatts

5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

Biomass Cogen Hydro Municipal Waste Pumped Storage Solar PV off grid Solar PV grid con. Solar Th Elec no st. Solar Th Elec with st. Ocean Energy Wind High CF Wind Medium CF Imp Ren Energy New Nuclear New foss mid and pk New Fossil Base Exist mid and peak Existing Base

Figure 10: Potential mix of Renewables in the Western Cape

Wind Ocean Solar –PV Hydro Solar thermal Pumped Storage Total

3000MW 1000MW 247MW 15MW 1400MW 1800MW 7452MW

Figure 11: Potential Power production from Renewables – Western Cape

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The Cape Town Draft Energy and Climate Change Strategy calls for 10% of power to come from Renewable Energy Sources, in particular Solar wind and hydro.

Thus, the following targets have been set for Cape Town (DEADP 2008): Technology SWH EE Lighting Target Houses: 10% by 2010, 50% by 2024. Commercial + Local Authorities: 100% by 2010 Residential: 30% by 2010, 90% by 2020 Ceilings Efficient HVAC Transport CCT Target: Retrofit existing houses by 2020
20% reduction in energy used by HVAC by 2020

Energy Saving 5700GWH over 20 years 7700GWh over 20 years

Load Reduction 375MW 290MW

365 GWH by 2024 950 GWh by 2024 150million GJ

These targets, in light of a current total consumption 150 PJ/year (42,000 GWh/year), and 12,000 GWh in electricity consumption, are extremely low, let alone compared to the 2050 growth as business as usual of 783 PJ/year. Based on the large availability of Renewable Energy resources, we propose to do better!

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5 Future Cape Town Energy Scenario
5.1 Key Process
In times of war and crisis, governments have been able to roll out incredible expansions of infrastructure. We currently face a greater enemy than hostile nations, namely our own inability to care for our planet. As such, we really do need to respond as if it was a time of extreme crisis, and implement programs that radically seize the window that we have to reduce Carbon Emissions in a manner that does not compromise people’s happiness or the future well-being of our children.
In this section a “best case” scenario is proposed where all interventions are pushed to their limits to produce an extremely sustainable city.

As a first step, energy efficiency needs to be given a number one priority. With an aggressive approach, it may be possible to reduce the energy consumption from the business-as-usual scenario by up to 50% by 2050. This would require significant changes in the way that buildings are built and consume energy. Energy Efficiency interventions should include, amongst others:
    All new building to be energy efficient, with passive designs for heating and cooling. Extensive Solar Water Heating, preferably every house by 2050. Correct orientation, ceilings and insulation in all low-cost housing. Efficient HVAC, with heat recovery for other processes.

The capacity for local renewable energy should be exploited as fast as possible. The proposed 7.4GW of power in the Western Cape Should be developed faster than 2035. In fact, a goal of producing 50% of the City’s energy from local sources should be set for 2050. A local carbon trading scheme, in the like of the Chicago Climate Exchange, should be developed for the city. Companies should be strongly encouraged to participate. Where possible, alternatives to cement and steel, based on local building materials, should be promoted where appropriate. Consumer behaviour change will need to be pushed hard.

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5.2 Proposed energy supply
The following table proposes various targets to achieve. Energy efficiency plays a major role in reducing the business-as-usual scenario from 784 PJ to 444 PJ. Electricity still plays a dominant role, but the source is shifted dramatically to Renewable Energy.

User Group Electricity Petrol Diesel Heavy Furnace Oil Paraffin Biofuels Jet Fuel LPG Coal Wood Total Total %

Industry & Local Households Commerce Authority Transport PJ 37.32 79.27 5.44 PJ 87.85 PJ 34.00 1.22 35.00 PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ %

Total 122.04 87.85 70.22 0.00 0.00 60.50 56.56 16.96 25.23 4.78 444.13 100%

Total % 27% 20% 16% 0% 0% 14% 13% 4% 6% 1% 100%

5.00 2.84 0.23 1.86 47.25 11%

20.00 14.11 25.00 2.91 175.30 39%

0.50

35.00 56.56

7.16 2%

214.41 48%

Figure 12: Total Energy Supply at 2050 - Sustainable

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Energy Supply by Sector 2050

11% Households 48% 39% Industry & Commerce Local Authority Transport

2%

Figure 13: Energy Supply by sector at 2050

The following table shows the proposed electricity breakdown – Efficiency (as a “Virtual Power Station”) is a major contributor. Producer ESKOM ESKOM ESKOM ESKOM CCT CCT CCT CCT TOTAL:
Type Transmission lines (Coal) Nuclear Palmiet Pumped Storage Gas Turbine Efficiency Pumped Storage Gas Turbine Renewables MW 5200 0 400 171 3523 10000 2000 20000 41294 % GWh % Capacity 13% 11388 14.1% 25% 0% 0 0.0% 1% 350.4 0.4% 10% 0% 150 0.2% 10% 9% 30863 38.1% 100% 24% 0.0% 5% 1752 2.2% 10% 48% 36500 45.1% 21% 81003

The following graph shows the generation split between ESKOM and CCT (excluding pumped storage):

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Figure 14: Electricity by Source in 2050

Further break down of Renewables (excluding bio-fuels) is shown as follows:
Renewable Source Wind Ocean Solar –PV Hydro Solar thermal Pumped Storage Total MW 10300 3000 1000 500 5200 10000 30000 % 34.3% 10.0% 3.3% 1.7% 17.3% 33.3%

Figure 15: Generation by Renewables / Fossil 2050

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Figure 16: Renewables Contribution 2050

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6 Technical Interventions
Technical Interventions can be classified into two main categories:   Production – changes in technology choices to PRODUCE energy. Consumption – changes in technology choices that in fact how energy is CONSUMED and how EFFICIENTLY it is consumed.

6.1 Production Interventions
When considering production of various energy sources, the end source energy service demand needs to be considered. For example, paraffin is produced to meet the energy service need of lighting and cooking. Thus the actual energy service required (lighting cooking) can be met by an alternative, such as an ethanol gel fuel. 1) Local Renewable Production To improve energy security and mitigate climate change impacts, electricity and biofuels should be produced locally.   Solar Water Heaters should be installed on every roof, and especially on government buildings, schools, hospitals, clinics and hotels. Large scale Renewable Energy investment - Incentives, tax breaks or feed-in-tariffs should be promoted by the city for those home owners who wish to generate their own power within the city, and for the large projects to build on the edge of the city.  Biogas should be produced wherever feasible.

Many of these have short paybacks if there is adequate policy to support them. The environmental benefits and energy security concerns must also be factored into the evaluation of these technologies. 2) Virtual Power Stations Promote the idea of a “Virtual Power Station”, which is in fact the culmination of energy saving interventions, discussed below.

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6.2 Consumption Interventions
Consumption interventions mainly impact on how energy is consumed, both in terms of energy efficiency (e.g. energy efficient lighting) and behaviour change (e.g. switching off lights in unoccupied rooms). 1) Energy Saving Plan (City IDP 2008) - The City must develop an energy saving plan incorporating targets that align with the requirements of science, particularly the South African Long Term Mitigation Strategy (LTMS) for Climate Change. 2) Energy Efficiency - This should be the number 1 priority. Sector wide strategies for reducing energy consumption need to be planned. Targets should be 50% below business as usual by 2050. 3) Variable Tariffs - High energy users should pay a premium for their electricity usage. 4) Smart Meters - Meters which allow users to regularly see their consumption should be increased. 5) Efficient Cooking – minimal traditional electricity, maximise efficient cooking such as microwaves and pressure cookers. Use LPG where others are not available. 6) Local Building materials - Locally sourced building materials rather than cement and steel should be used wherever possible. 7) Transport - Public transport must be promoted extensively. Alternative cooling systems – nitrogen CO2 – leading 25% increased diesel consumption. If implemented correctly, the above items will help with decoupling growth from energy consumption.

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7 Key goals for sustainable energy
Based on the discussion above, the following key goals for Cape Town for the production of sustainable energy are recommended:

7.1 Policy
Policy should support the following outcomes: 1. Energy security through local production of sustainable cost effective energy. 2. Energy efficiency and reduced energy demand per capita. 3. Extensive support for Independent Power Producers, particularly through the use of incentives, tax breaks, feed-in-tariffs or the like. 4. Increased support for energy skills. 5. Promotion of job creation where low energy consumption per job created takes preference over high energy consumption per job created (e.g. smelters). 6. Support for local manufacturing of “green” technologies. 7. Incentives for houses and buildings that operate completely off grid. 8. Marketing support for “green buildings” or “green floors”7.

7.2 Production
The following energy production outcomes should be seen: 1. Re-use of waste energy sources for biogas or other energy production (e.g. waste biomass, sewerage, solid waste). 2. Local production of electrical energy through the promotion of Renewables, both small-scale and large. 3. Local production of sustainable bio-fuels. 4. Local job creation in energy production – Renewables created more jobs than conventional energy systems. 5. All municipal buildings to produce 10% of the electricity or heat on-site.

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A green floor is a particular floor of a multi-story building whose power comes totally from local sustainable

renewable energy produced on or in the building

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7.3 Consumption: Residential
The following outcomes should be seen in the residential sector: 1. Gas or electricity for every household – no paraffin. 2. Solar water heaters on every rooftop. 3. Energy efficient lighting in every light-fitting. 4. A rated appliances in every kitchen. 5. Insulation retrofitted in every ceiling. 6. Passive heating and cooling design in every new house. 7. Every new house to meet a minimum of SANS204 rating, and a 4-star Green Star building rating when it is launched for the residential sector. 8. All buildings to have smart meters in a visible location showing household consumption on a daily / monthly basis. 9. Public awareness of energy saving possible in the residential sector. 10. An improvement of energy efficiency of up to 2x (50% reduction in consumption) should be promoted.

7.4 Consumption: Commercial/Industrial
The following outcomes should be seen in the commercial and industrial sector: 1. Bulk solar water heating / heat pump systems for every large hot water consumer – hotels, guest houses, hospitals schools, etc. 2. Heat recovery systems operating on every large generators and air-conditioner system. 3. Corrected electricity power factor throughout the city. 4. Reduced peak electricity demand. 5. Energy efficient lighting in every building. 6. Efficient electrical motors and motors drives in every machine. 7. All new buildings to meet a 4-star Green Buildings rating. 8. All traffic lights to be replaced with LED lighting systems. 9. Ultimately a reduction in energy intensity of up to 80% should be target.

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7.5 Transport
The following outcomes should be seen in the energy usage of transport systems: 1. Low energy and carbon emissions per person transported through extensive use of rail and mass transit systems (new busses) by most commuters. 2. Reduced fossil fuel dependence through the use of sustainable second-generation bio-fuel as a blend in all diesel and petrol. 3. Reduced energy and carbon emissions per person through significant movement to hybrid and electric vehicles. 4. Energy for electric vehicle to be locally produced. 5. Promote pedestrianisation throughout the city. 6. Energy intensity per capita should be reduced by at least 50%.

8 Conclusions
Cape Town is currently dependent almost entirely on energy resources that enter the city from beyond her control. As such, we are completely at the mercy of international markets and national policymakers. A significant portion of the city’s revenue leaves the boundaries of the city due to the sources of energy – this money could be put to better use within the City. Not only that, both the behaviour of those consuming Energy in City, as well as throughout the rest of the world, is exacerbating climate change through the release of greenhouse gasses such as CO2. But it does not need to be like that. There are massive opportunities for improvement in the way the City produces and consumes energy and energy services, so much so that it could possibly be cut in half without compromising service delivery and social justice. It is our hope that as a City we will dream big and act wisely to bring about a sustainable energy future for Cape Town.

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Bibliography
Banks, D & Schaffler, J 2007, A Proposed Renewable Energy Plan of Action for the Western Cape, DEADP. DEADP 2008, A climate change strategy and action plan for the Western Cape, DEADP. DME 2003, “White Paper on Renewable Energy.” Department of Minerals and Energy. Retrieved April 18, 2008, from http://www.dme.gov.za/pdfs/energy/renewable/white_paper_renewable_energy.p df Lovins, A & Sheikh, I 2008, “The Nuclear Illusion.” Ambio, vol. Nov 08 preprint, dr 18. Retrieved October 20, 2008, from http://www.rmi.org/images/PDFs/Energy/E0801_AmbioNuclIlusion.pdf PDG 2007, State of Energy Report for the City of Cape Town 2007, Palmer Development Group. Retrieved from http://www.capetown.gov.za/en/EnvironmentalResourceManagement/publications /Pages/Reportsand.aspx#state%20of%20energy Sustainable Energy Africa 2007, Energy Baseline Analysis, commissioned by the UNDP and Sustainability Institute.

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