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Presentation by James Wood

Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow


January 2020
Utah’s Major Economic Expansions
1970 to 2019
10.0%
1971-1979 peak 7.5%
1988-1998 peak 6.2%
7.5%
7.3%

8.0%

6.2%
5.6%

5.6%
5.4%
6.0% 2012-2019 3.7%
5.1%

5.1%
4.7%

4.7%
4.7%
4.5%

4.3%

3.0%

4.2%

3.7%
3.6%
Growth
3.5%

3.3%
3.3%

3.3%
3.3%
4.0%

3.2%
3.1%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%
2.9%

2.8%
2.3%
1.5%
1.5%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%
Sales of Single-Family Homes in Davis and
Weber Counties
10,000 8,762
8,567
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
4,760 4,573
5,000
4,000
3,000 4,209 3,994
2,000
1,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Davis Weber Total

Source: UtahRealEstate.com
Number of Residential Listings and Sales in Davis and
Weber Counties (includes condos and townhomes)

20,000
18,000 17,381

16,000
14,000 12,196
12,000
10,000
8,000 10,023
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Listings Sold

Source: UtahRealEstate.com
Percent of Listed Homes Sold in Davis and Weber
Counties (includes condos and townhomes)

100.0%
86.6%
90.0% 82.2%
80.0%
70.0% Avg. 60.4%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
41.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
% Avg. % 60.4%

Source: UtahRealEstate.com
Cumulative Median Days on Market for
Single-Family Homes
120
96
100

80
92
60

40
23
20
21
0

Davis Weber

Source: UtahRealEstate.com
Median Sales Price of Single-Family
Homes in Davis and Weber Counties
$400,000

$345,000
$350,000

$300,000

$250,000 $229,000

$270,000
$200,000

$150,000
$168,000
$100,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Davis Weber

Source: UtahRealEstate.com
-5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%

0.0%
5.0%

-15.0%
-10.0%
0.9%
2001 1.4%
1.4%
2002 -0.1%
2.3%
2003 0.4%
2.9%
2004 3.5%
9.8%
2005 6.8%
15.7%
2006 11.5%
14.5%
2007 12.2%
-1.7%
2008 1.9%

Davis
-3.6%
2009 -3.3%
-3.2%
2010 -4.7%
-7.2%

Weber
2011 -9.6%
2.7%
2012 4.6%
9.5%
2013 9.2%
3.7%

Source: UtahRealEstate.com
2014 3.1%
6.2%
2015 9.1%
9.5%
2016 10.0%
8.0%
2017 11.1%
12.2%
Price of Single-Family Homes

2018 11.4%
7.8%
2019 10.2%
Annual Percent Increase in Median Sales
Cumulative Median Days on Market for
Single-Family Homes
120
96
100

80
92
60

40
23

20
21
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Davis Weber

Source: UtahRealEstate.com
Condominium and Townhome Sales as Percent of
Total Residential Sales

30.0% 26.8%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

14.5%
10.0%

5.0%

0.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Davis and Weber Salt Lake

Source: UtahRealEstate.com
Permits Issued in Davis and Weber
Counties for Residential Units
(include condos and townhomes)

4,500 4,199
4,000
3,500 3,049
3,000 2,338
2,500
2,000
1,418
1,500 1,299

1,000
500 920

Davis Weber Total

Source: Gardner Policy Institute.


New Construction of Single-Family and
Condo/Townhomes as Percent of Existing
Homes Sold
70.0%
61.2%
60.0%

50.0%
Avg. 34.6%
40.0%

30.0%

20.0% 23.3%

10.0%

0.0%

New Home Share Avg. 34.6%

Source: Gardner Policy Institute.


Number of Single-Family and Multifamily
Permits Issued in Utah

25,000
20,950
20,000

15,236
15,000

10,000
11,500

5,000

Single Family Multifamily

Source: Gardner Policy Institute.


Number of Apartment Permits Compare to
Condominium and Townhome Permits in Utah

12,000
9,584
10,000

8,000
5,741
6,000

4,000 5,526

2,000

0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Apartments Condos & Townhomes

Source: Gardner Policy Institute.


Housing Shortage Eases in 2019

30,000
26,879
24,460 24,461
25,000

20,000

15,000

9,079
10,000

5,000

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Households New Residential Units
Increase in Households by County, 2019-2025

Average
Numeric Annual Rate
County 2019 2025 Increase of Growth

Davis 115,635 130,087 14,452 1.98%

Salt Lake 409,615 454,464 44,849 1.75%

Utah 186,904 226,119 39,215 3.23%

Weber 92,066 104,136 12,070 2.07%

Washington 65,684 83,184 17,500 4.02%


Source: Gardner Policy Institute.
Household Growth in Utah by Age Group, 2019-2015

Numeric
Age Group % Change Change Implications
Starter home market and
25-34 3.5% 7,569 rental market
35-44 11.2% 26,129
Move-up market
45-54 24.3% 43,096
55-64 2.2% 3,934 Little change
Diverse and vulnerable
65-74 24.0% 34,685 group
Growing Demand for
≥75 39.0% 40,428 Assisted Living

Source: Gardner Policy Institute.


Increase in Housing Price Index, Top Five State
1993-2019

Percent Average Annual


State Increase Rate of Growth
Colorado 324.4% 5.7%
Oregon 272.8% 5.2%
Utah 258.4% 5.0%
Washington 249.4% 4.9%
Montana 226.8% 4.7%
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency.
Housing Affordability and Changing Living
Arrangements

●Number of individuals 25-34 living with parent has increased from 10.4% to
13.4% in ten years, 63,700 individuals in 2017.

●Relatives doubling-up, 200,000 individuals living with relative; 20% increase


in ten years.

●Nonrelated individuals doubling-up, 46,000 non-related individuals living in


family households; 50% increase in 10 years.

●Multigenerational households – Utah 10% compared to 8% nationally,


105,000 households in Utah; 60,000 grandparent/grandchild households.

●Greater longevity and affordability – households with head 65 years or older


growing at double the rate of overall household growth. Increases by 30% in
five years; 75,000 HH in five years.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.


Changing Face of Housing in Utah

●Affordability and demographics are primary drivers of


the changing face of housing.

●Affordability has shifted demand to multifamily housing.

●Affordability has change living arrangements, which impact


the demand for housing.

●Household growth by age group impacts housing types.


Population is aging and long-term household growth
expected to slow.