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Digital Re-print - November | December 2010

Globalfeed markets - November | December 2010

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News November - December 2010
COMMODITIES
GLOBAL
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range
of commodities used in food and feed production. His
observations will influence your decision-making.

US crop setbacks revive bull market


NKS speed up transport operations with
Wheat bulls are also However, without the stock cushion
The quality factor RDS on-board weighing
T
being driven by events in the available to wheat consumers
HE PAST year looks likely to crops in the FSU, recently planted late and in some maize market where what next summer, the maize market
has kept prices of go down as an unlucky one areas under dry conditions. Concerns also persist was once expected to be may remain sensitive to upward

N
in terms of crop weather – about the adequacy of better quality milling wheat or t
a record US crop has beenh K illingholme commercial sale of goods to r e s p o n d e d q u i c k l y a n d More inforMation
pressures :
until it has some firm
North American for northern hemisphere supplies after this year’s wet harvest problems S t o
repeatedly revised down, r a g e ( N K S ) MID Class Y(b) and OIML effectively to any question pointers to
Sheila Diaz a significantly bigger
grain producers at least. Barely had in Canada, Germany and, in the last few weeks, threatening p ra omuchv i d etighter o nthan Class R51year
e - expected & R76 ahead, standards or support
despite an apparently issue.
looser (than world cropRDS on the way. The
Technology Ltdinteresting
hard wheats fairly markets begun to start settling down Australia too. On the bright side, EU autumn stop storage and logistical a n d at N K S i s
end-season balance – for US and world the US) stock/use ratio of about 15%. The anomaly here c u r re n t l y “The loader operators get on is that forward
Cirencester Rd, maize futures
after the past summer’s crop shocks wheat planting appears to have gone well with solutions,
maize markets. including Customs-
This situation used
takes on addedin conjunc problem tion is that, w it h well
outside of with
the USthe, RDS
mostsystem and Minchinhampton,
are actually showing a discount to current
Stroud,
strong in the past in the former Soviet Union, Canada adequate moisture on an expected larger area. The approved warehousing for a we ighbridge ,
importance in a year when maize among of these supposedly ‘surplus’ maize stocks months (the t o e nsure in such an operation as we GL6reverse of the situation
9BH, United Kingdom for
and Europe than a fresh drought worry odds might also be on the side of a better growing b u l k feed
other p r ograins
d u c t s– has i n c lbeen g accurate
u d i n expected to are loading,held inreducing havereserves
China’s strategic here itand certainly
so wheat). helpsDoesTel:
this+44
suggest that the markets
1453 733300
month with Dark emerged to threaten recently-planted season here in 2011 after two years of weather agricultural
help fill gaps left feed andabsence
by the the time
grain. of millions truck s spend
of inaccessible to the ourmarket.
onglobal aim of On achieving
top think a quick
the US Email:
crop can come to the rescue
info@rdstec.com
US winter wheat crops for harvest in challenges. India also has a big wheat surplus from site, increasing
tonnes of Russian and Ukrainian feed wheat, of that, many analysts think China’s crop accountability vehicle turn around.” next year? Website: www.rdstec.com
Northern Spring 2011. a record crop, some of which it might want to Based
not in Northtight
to mention world barley and
Lincolnshire, supplies to speed a n d up s t othe
ck
There is still time for rains to improve this export at the best world prices seen for years. n e a r I m m i n g h a m d o c k
too. Even the prospect of bigger maize estimates ares , complete operation.
14% offered fob situation – but a shaky start for a much-needed The Indian government is torn between taking n u m einr oArgentina
crops u s p r o dand u c China
t s a rand e aTdecent
h ro u g h considerably
u se o f t h e
bumper crop from the world’s largest wheat advantage of the best world wheat prices seen for received from across
Ukrainian harvest have been overshadowed t he telemetry link option
over-rated
Gulf as high as exporter is the last thing anxious consumers want years and a temptation to keep stockpiling staples w o r l d , s t o r e d a n d
by the US crop outcome which was all the a n dt h e n in the Loadmaster, tNKS
hat
to hear about. Fortunately, the offsetting factor we like wheat and rice to combat its own rising food screened
more or blended
surprising after a year to the are looking
of supposedly the toworld’s phase
$376/tonne at one have highlighted in recent issues still applies: the price inflation. But while world wheat stocks are c u s tgrowing
ideal o m e r ’sconditions.
re q u i reIronically,
m e n t s lastout t he weighbridge
year’s second
US has a huge carryover stock of wheat to take likely to remain large when the next season starts weather-plagued harvest – and consequent a nlargest d sim ply
maize
stage, its most into the next season, for a second year running. in mid-2011, markets are already looking further long growing season – actually turned out producer and send load data
US farmers are also thought to be planting a lot ahead, to the possible scenarios for 2011/12. If the highest US maize yields ever seen. The dconsumer irect from
expensive since more winter wheat this year which may help offset next year’s world crop again under-shoots targets, response of markets to this shock has been t h e become
will l o a d ear
any yield penalty from poor crop establishment. stocks will clearly be much tighter by mid-2012 dramatic with the leading Chicago futures big importer to the office
August 2008 and However, this hasn’t stopped speculative buyers, and less able to supplement supply for a third exchange soaring by up to 80% from its w
of h e
this r egraina
egged on by a weakening dollar and constant talk year. This concern is already reflected in a recent summer lows recently, pushing up prices printed
in the not
Canadian Western of food price inflation, renewing their investment 12% premium on Chicago new crop (September across the global feed grain sector, including ticket
too will
distant be
in rising wheat prices. As well as the US crop 2011) futures over the current delivery month. the European feed and even milling wheat automatically
future. More
Red Spring wheat situation, the wheat market still faces a highly Clearly US, FSU and European crops will have to markets. Possibly there is an element produced. encouragingly,
uncertain outlook for next year’s winter wheat demonstrate that they are up and running under of over-reaction to the US maize supply T under h i s i presents due
prices also near reasonably normal conditions equation as these high prices do appear to forwardin the
before being sent out again. to go live later
before the wheat market can begin Total
be causingcapacity
a sharp ofcutback
the NKS year and pwill
site demand,
in import r i c efur s ther of
two-year highs. to relax over forward supplies. In is over 250,000ft² and around
especially from the big Asian feed consumers. im prove o pe
maize r at io n al
versus
fact, wheat prices may not fully a million total
However, tonnes US of feed,different
ethanol, foodproductivity.
and other crops
settle down until mid-2011 when product demand,
industrial is turned which accounts N
around forKS 85% havelikeused soyabeans RDS
the harvests start to come in. each
of cropyear. To help
disposal, speed no
is showing weighing
upsigns yet of and systems cot ton for
In the meantime, weather will this oper ation, N KS
‘price-rationing’ as processors push up prices have over 20 years
– t as
h e ShaunU S
take on even more importance invested in two Loadmaster
of their products to compensate – so the Dannat t , w Warehouse
i l l p l a n t
than usual and speculators will 9 0 0 0 i o n b o a r d w e i g
stock/use ratio will likely drop to historical h i n g M a n a g e ra a
lot t N
more K S
be watching like hawks for any systems
lows of under from 8% –RDS equalNor to justth foure xweeks
p l a i n s , of“ We its main h ave
problems in a major producing Eastern Ltd for use on
supply. Given the pre-eminence of the US in their received nothing
coarse but
grain
country, guaranteeing a swift texport
wo Volvo L120 F wheeled
trade for this grain, the world maize excellent ser
for vice
har and
vest
upward response from prices. loaders.will also be tightly balanced
markets product
in the support in 2 0from
11 .
The Loadm a ster 9 0 0 0 i is RDS Nor t h E astern ,
trade -approved for the w h o h a v e a l w a y s

34 | november - december 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Grain


Grain &feed
feed millinG
millinG technoloGy
technoloGy november- december
november - december2010
2010| 35
|5
“The quality of the machinery we
manufacture is only as good as the
Commodity highlights - export campaign to non-EU countries).
Russian winter grain planting has
some nagging concerns as we go to press
about rain spoiling quality for the successful buckets in them – which is why
Wheat needs a weather break
As recently as the start of October, world
undoubtedly got off to a difficult start in
some, but not all, regions under frequently
eastern harvest. Argentina is meanwhile
enjoying a significant crop recovery from
we choose Tapco. ”
wheat prices had dropped by about 20% dry conditions. Final wheat harvest area may last year’s drought spoiled crop and latest Gustaaf Zeeman
from the two-year highs of August when struggle to reach last year’s level, or even dip official estimates suggest it will raise wheat Managing Director
the full extent of Russia’s crop problem was well below. Ukraine and Kazakhstan have exports by several million tonnes. Both EUROPEAN MACHINE TRADING
driven home by its total ban on exports. fared better with winter planting while all Australia and Argentina are already selling ’t Zand, Noord-Holland,
Since then, however, uncertainty over 2011 three might be expected to raise spring their crops forward and helping to keep The Netherlands
crop prospects has not only dragged prices wheat area – although the latter crops will world wheat export costs under control. Janco Zeeman
most of the way back but pushed forward yield less than winter wheat. Overall, it So too is Canada, despite its smaller 2010 Technical Director
prices to even higher levels. Will wheat go might be reasonable to expect, that with crop and a lower proportion of high quality
higher still, or is this an over-reaction fed better yields than last year, the ‘Black Sea’ milling wheat after a damp summer. Recent
partly by renewed speculative buying? producers could yet get reasonable 2011 Canadian Wheat Board reports suggest only
crops. However, their 38% of spring wheat made the top two grades
stocks will be low after although some miller customers are reported
this year’s crop failures to be accepting the different mix without
so export prospects for major problems.
the region remain highly The quality factor has kept prices of North
problematical for 2011/12. American hard wheats fairly strong in the
Russia has implied that it past month with Dark Northern Spring 14%
might extend its export offered fob Gulf as high as $376/tonne at one
ban well into next season stage, its most expensive since August 2008
but this message – aimed and Canadian Western Red Spring wheat
Looking at the key factors on the supply partly at cooling its domestic market - could prices also near two-year highs. The search
side as we go to press, there is positive and be taken with a pinch of salt at this early for cheaper alternatives has also seen US
negative news. Dry weather has raised the stage, especially if weather does improve Hard Red Winter wheat dragged up to as
risk of lower US winter wheat yields but rain in the main growing season. Readers will much as $305/tonne fob Gulf although soft
in the forecast might just get enough crops also recollect that prior to this year’s crop milling wheat prices have been more erratic,
established before dormancy, allowing this disasters, the Black Sea producers were absorbing the volatile trend in Chicago
year’s higher planted area to still turn in a gearing up for a major, long-term expansion in soft wheat futures with the ebb and flow
decent harvest. their export programmes, targeting markets of speculative money and other ‘outside’
Europe’s crops have mostly gone in on around the world traditionally held by the influences. Currently soft wheat is enjoying
time under favourably moist conditions on US, Canada, Europe, Australia and Argentina. some support from the poor start to next
A lot of investment has year’s US crop, pulling export prices up close
gone into these plans
and after this year’s sales
to those of HRW wheats – despite a lack of
interest in US soft wheat from the world’s How Tapco Buckets Help Maintain a Family
Tradition of Quality
cancellations, the Black buyers and ample stocks of these. EU prices
Sea countries need to have meanwhile come well off their Aug/Sep
demonstrate as soon as highs but with exports rapidly eating into
possible that they can be stocks and months of weather uncertainty For more than 90 years, European Machine Trading has maintained our products. When you make a machine, the components you
reliable suppliers. It would ahead, a prolonged price fall looks less likely their reputation as a high quality, family-owned business. In 1988, select must be the same quality, which is why we chose Tapco buckets.”
not be surprising, then, to at this stage. the former feed mill decided to
“The polyethylene Tapco Super EuroBuckets are strong, which is
see at least the start of a Key factors influencing the wheat manufacture elevators, transport
significant comeback from important to fertilizer plant managers. They are tough enough to handle
market in the months ahead will conveyors, bagging machines
heavy loads, yet flexible – so they absorb impact, bypass obstructions
these suppliers in 2011/12
include: ® and other equipment for feed
and return to their original shape. And, they don’t rust!”
if the weather favours
mills, fertilizer plants and dealers.
a probable larger area. Stocks will be much them between now and mid-2011, especially Weather in the US, Europe and the former STYLE SUPER EUROBUCKET
However, one thing stayed the With 900,000 buckets in 92 sizes – stocked throughout the
tighter than usual at the close of the season from Ukraine – but not at last year’s low, Soviet Union HEAVY DUTY Polyethylene Elevator Bucket
Polyurethane • Nylon same...quality. world – Tapco has what you want, when you need it. Find
but, given more normal weather in 2011, low prices. Wheat importers’ response to high prices
supplies could still be more comfortable Among other key suppliers, Australia has The level of speculative demand, linked out why 75% design engineers, contractors and bucket
“Our company has been built on quality,” Gustaaf Zeeman of
in the following season when Germany, had drought problems in its Western half to currency and broader ‘macro-economic’ elevator manufacturers in the U.S.A. specify Tapco*.
European Machine Trading says. “And quality is what we want in
hopefully may return to its role of top EU offset by a terrific crop in the southeast, trends FANGED HEAD
quality wheat supplier. (Though France seems resulting a big national harvest estimated Elevator Bolt
to have done much better with both crop around 22.5/23.5m tonnes for the third Maize balance tightens again
quality and quantity this year than early year running. With comfortable starting
ELEVATOR BUCKETS - ELEVATOR BOLTS
reports suggested, helping to keep domestic stocks that suggests a probable rise in A smaller than expected US crop has
millers supplied as well as backing a strong export availability. However, there are been driving the maize market sharply +1 800 288 2726 • +1 314 739 9191
www.tapcoinc.com
*Grain Journal, Country Journal Publishing Co., Inc., Decatur, Illinois, U.S.A.
The color blue, when used in connection with elevator buckets, is a U.S. registered trademark owned by Tapco Inc. © 2010 Tapco Inc.® All rights reserved.
36 | november - december 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
COMMODITIES

higher in recent months along with renewed news is gloomy though. Second largest maize value in recent months, suggesting to some Others that livestock and poultry demand take US farmland away from soya. In effect, with better crops of rapeseed and/or
concerns about the strength of demand from exporter Argentina is expected to raise observers that it could gain up to 5m more there is simply growing much faster than soyabean prices have to rise, regardless of sunflowerseed next summer - under strong
the corn ethanol industry and, not least, output to 25m tonnes and could increase acres next spring, opening the way for a expected and a fast expanding Chinese their own supply and demand, simply to competition from lucrative cereal crops – to
a resurgence in speculative buying on the exports by 5m. Exports are also seen rising potential 355/360m tonne crop next summer crushing industry wants to benefit from defend their share of acreage. help keep frisky oilmeal prices in check. Like
futures markets caused by renewed, strong from Brazil, Serbia, South Africa and Ukraine. – even if this year’s rather disappointing yields good margins. Whatever, the real reasons Soya prices have also been driven the cereals, oilmeals will be very weather-
downward pressure on the US dollar. The Less encouragingly for other consumers, were repeated (far more if the high 2009 – probably a combination of the above - higher by a smaller than expected crop sensitive markets in the months ahead.
latter trend accelerated in November after some analysts still think estimates of China’s yields were achieved). That could feed higher US crop estimate Key factors influencing the oilmeal
the US government decided to print another crop at 168/169m tonnes are far too high and demand and still raise those low US ending from the USDA
markets in the months ahead will
$600bn to try to kick start its ailing economy, that record prices for corn on its domestic stocks by at least 50% during 2011/12. But it’s in November at
include:
stoking fresh fears – on US and global market are a sign that significant imports will all a long way off at this stage with a world 91.9m tonnes –
markets – that this would trigger hyper- be made in coming months with potential of weather – and soya pricing – possibilities still a record high Chinese demand – can it continue at
inflation. In predictable fashion, managed
funds and other speculators responded to
firming effect on world maize prices.
World import trade for maize has actually
in between.
The progress of US ethanol demand for
News November - December 2010 but at this stage record levels?
seen inadequate Latin American crop weather – will it
the latest influx of ‘cheap money’ by rushing not grown much this season, despite the corn, related to the rate of blending, legal to cover foreseen stay favourable in a normally drier ‘La Nina’
to invest in commodities – metals, coffee, shortages of Black Sea feed wheat as most challenges and the relative price of ethanol d o m e s t i c a n d year?
sugar and, not least, agricultural markets as of this season’s 23.6m tonnes increase in v convential fuel, all of which will affect export demand Estimates of EU winter sowings for
an inflation hedge, leading to huge swings world maize consumption is taking place producers/blenders profit margins and without taking rapeseed – a crop rebound would help, in
“ T h e To t a l B a g Co n t ro l no human intervention. More inforMation:
in countries producing consumption of maize. stocks down by the FSU too
System has proven to be highly “The robots provide a perfectly Paul Wilkinson
it. The biggest increase Import demand for US maize has slackened about two million The relative value of maize and soyabeans
efficient and, coupled with the presented pallet every time and Business
of all is in the US (+10m markedly in recent weeks with buyers traders have been rattled by the fact that tonnes. Even then, at some five tonnes, at US planting timeDevelopment
next Apr/MayManager
and, no
installation of three Pacepacker have minimal moving parts, which Pacepacker Services Ltd
tonnes), over half of that turned off by these sky-high prices. Will Chinese demand has shown little sign of these will not be tight unless China keeps up less important, spring weather – rain-
palletiser robots, we have been reduces the room for error and Tel: +44 1371 811544
in the still expanding that continue, freeing up a little more end- slowing down even as soyabean prices its frenetic buying pace. Other importers, delayed maize planting
Fax: +44 can often lead to
1371 811621
able to reduce our packing the likelihood of breakdowns.
ethanol industry. The season stocks? have reached their highest level in over it might be noted, are not expanding their higher soyabean areas.
Email: paul.wilkinson
staff by 40 percent, relocating Subsequently I’Anson’s operator and
food versus fuel debate Latin American crop outcomes and planting two years. However, a third view is that soya demand much. The EU is seen shipping The level of @pacepackerservices.com
speculative activity in
them elsewhere within the maintenance intervention has been
simmers on in the US weather in the Northern Hemisphere. China is deliberately contracting for more in 600,000 more beans than last year with commodityWebsite:
Dennis Allison, markets www.pacepacker.com
in general, linked to
operation,” adds Mr I’Anson. reduced by 90 percent,” he adds.
where the government The trajectory of the US dollar. Further Pacepacker Managing
US soyabeans than it actually intends to much smaller gains spread across a number the dollar, global economic trends
energy agency recently weakness will spur more speculative demand take delivery of, Director
as insurance against any o f
An automated A s i a n
recommended a higher for commodities including grains and problems occurring with recently-sown a n d L a t i n
new Total Bag Control System solution
in day-to-day prices on both futures and ethanol blending rate for newer vehicles soyabeans – on both sides of the Atlantic. Latin American crops. Some think China American
we have been able to virtually Pacepacker, a robotics systems
physical markets. Naturally, any commodity although US food manufacturers and livestock 2989w could cancel some of these shipments if the countries.
eliminate sack waste and integrator who has installed
with a firm physical backdrop – and maize is producers are currently mounting a legal South Americans get normal weather into That said,
totally eliminate customer 400 palletising systems over
one of them – becomes a star attraction to challenge to this. There is also a question the New Year, as it has done in past years. the immediate
these ‘outside’ interests. over whether tax breaks should continue to Oilmeals – prices up with
complaints regarding product the past 15 years, now use the
Oilseed and meal markets have also been onus is now New
That firm backdrop for maize has tightened for ethanol blenders, enabling them to use
presentation,” says Mr I’Anson. latest FANUC robots as part
lifted by this year’s rather disappointing h e a v y on Simple pushbutton
further in the past two months as the US maize bio-fuel even when it is more expensive grains, China demand but no Pacepacker have overcome of their automated solution.
world oilseed crops which have resulted in South America
the problem of heat sealing or Installed at the I’Anson plant for digital results!
than petrol. To the shortage zero growth in supply for 2010/11 – a season t o prod u ce
stitching difficult to handle sacks is a FANUC M-410iB series
surprise of many in when global crush demand for oilseeds is another large
with a system which supports robot, which offers four axes RIDA®QUICK SCAN
the industry, soya Oilmeal prices have risen sharply since our still expected to rise by at least 17m tonnes. soya harvest
and guides the bag throughout and payloads ranging from
bio-diesel tax breaks last review, partly in response to strength in The good news is that the oilseed market in in the spring
the process so that a perfect 140 to 700kg, as well as a high
were not renewed cereal markets but mainly due to voracious total is still in ample supply in 2010/11 after of 2011. So far
seal is achieved every time, the performance R-2000iB series
when they expired demand from one outstanding importer. last season’s output exceeded crush by a the news from
Total Bag Control System. robot with a payload from 100
last year, leading to The top world soyameal consumer China well-above trend 50m tonnes. Although a this region is
The system’s motorised grip to 250kg.
a huge drop in usage has been buying up US soyabeans as if there lot of this has gone to direct food use in encouraging
arms move around the bag as it “A s a FAN UC str ategic
of soya for this were no tomorrow, putting the latter’s sales Asia, it has still added at least 16m tonnes w i t h l ar ge r
is released from the spout clamp, par t ner wit h a 15 ye ar
purpose. However, to all destinations far ahead of the pace to world carryover stocks which reached than expected
where a pair of fingers either relationship, P acepacker
most in the ethanol needed to meet seasonal forecasts. Some a hefty 72m tonnes at the start of the are a s being
stretch or reform the gussets brings unrivalled specialist
and grain industries traders even suggest this could leave the new season on September 1. Most of this sown and rains
of the bag, to close it and hold application experience, which
crop – usually expected to supply over half regard the renewal of the corn ethanol USA’s own crushers and meal users short carryover is soyabeans, but about 7.5m is coming just in
it in its formed state. These only a system integrator
the world’s maize exports – has shrunk blending subsidy at the end of 2010 as a before the next crop arrives in September rapeseed. Even with flat growth in total time to break
arms are then driven toward the can, to devise a solution
from an estimated 334m to just 319m foregone conclusion, despite its unpopularity 2011. oilseed supply, these mammoth stocks are drought s in
sealer, transferring the bag into a from an initial layout to one
tonnes, leaving the domestic market in a in these straitened economic times. USDA data shows this is the second not expected to dip appreciably in 2010/11. B r a z i l a n d
powered twin-belt feeder, making which includes purpose built
22.4m tonne deficit. US carry-out stocks (at Key factors influencing the maize season running that Chinese soya meal However, this this hasn’t stopped oilmeal Argentina.
it possible to handle even the most end-effectors and control
September 30 next year) will halve to a tight consumption will show growth approaching prices joining the renewed upturn in grain Europe, the
market in the months ahead will unstable products and thin flimsy programs,” explains Dennis
21m tonnes – about three weeks’ supply for 20% , accounting for a quarter of all world markets. In the past two months alone, former Soviet
include: bags with ease as the bag top is Allison, Pacepacker Managing R-Biopharm Rhône Ltd.
domestic/export use. This is the main factor demand. Some analysts think China may Chicago soya meal futures have increased U n i o n a n d Block 10 Todd Campus Phone: +44 (0) 141 945 2924
held at all times prior to sealing. Director.
in a tight world maize balance with global The price relationship between maize be stockpiling soyabeans along with other in value by almost a quarter, spurred on Canada may West of Scotland Science Park Fax: +44 (0) 141 945 2925
The consistency of product “The new Pacepacker robotic Acre Road, Glasgow info@r-biopharmrhone.com
ending stocks currently seen at about eight and soyabeans and its effect on next year’s commodities amid fears that record not only by Chinese demand but by fears a l s o n e e d Scotland G20 0XA www.r-biopharm.com
presentation that the system palletising solution provides
weeks supply next September. Not all the planted area. Maize has vastly increased its internal food price inflation will accelerate. that a surge in maize acres next spring may to come up
achieves eliminates the need accurate and reliable sack stacking
for operator supervision. on a pallet to within 0.1mm with

38 | november - december 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Grain &feed millinG technoloGy PREVIOUS PAGE NEXT PAGE november - december 2010 | 39

mod.indd 1 06/10/2010 08:50


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LINKS
This digital Re-print is part of the November | December 2010 edition of Grain & Feed Milling Technology magazine.
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an archive of individual features on the docstoc website.
Please click here to view our other publications on www.docstoc.com.

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