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35 views7 pagesThe artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied to various hydrologic problems recently. This research demonstrates static neural approach by applying Modular feedforward neural network to rainfall-runoff modeling for the upper area of Wardha River in India. The model is developed by processing online data over time using static modular neural network modeling. Methodologies and techniques for four models are presented in this paper and a comparison of the short term runoff prediction results between them is also conducted. The prediction results of the Modular feedforward neural network with model two indicate a satisfactory performance in the three hours ahead of time prediction. The conclusions also indicate that Modular feedforward neural network with model two is more versatile than other and can be considered as an alternate and practical tool for predicting short term flood flow.

Dec 01, 2010

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The artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied to various hydrologic problems recently. This research demonstrates static neural approach by applying Modular feedforward neural network to rainfall-runoff modeling for the upper area of Wardha River in India. The model is developed by processing online data over time using static modular neural network modeling. Methodologies and techniques for four models are presented in this paper and a comparison of the short term runoff prediction results between them is also conducted. The prediction results of the Modular feedforward neural network with model two indicate a satisfactory performance in the three hours ahead of time prediction. The conclusions also indicate that Modular feedforward neural network with model two is more versatile than other and can be considered as an alternate and practical tool for predicting short term flood flow.

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The artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied to various hydrologic problems recently. This research demonstrates static neural approach by applying Modular feedforward neural network to rainfall-runoff modeling for the upper area of Wardha River in India. The model is developed by processing online data over time using static modular neural network modeling. Methodologies and techniques for four models are presented in this paper and a comparison of the short term runoff prediction results between them is also conducted. The prediction results of the Modular feedforward neural network with model two indicate a satisfactory performance in the three hours ahead of time prediction. The conclusions also indicate that Modular feedforward neural network with model two is more versatile than other and can be considered as an alternate and practical tool for predicting short term flood flow.

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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forecasting a comparative study

Rahul P. Deshmukh A. A. Ghatol

Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay Former Vice-Chancellor

Powai, Mumbai Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Technological University,

India Lonere, Raigad, India

deshmukh.rahul@iitb.ac.in vc_2005@rediffmail.com

Abstract— The artificial neural networks (ANNs) have Evaporation, Interception, Infiltration, Surface storage,

been applied to various hydrologic problems recently. This Surface detention, Channel detention, Geological

research demonstrates static neural approach by applying characteristics of drainage basin, Meteorological

Modular feedforward neural network to rainfall-runoff characteristics of basin, Geographical features of basin etc.

modeling for the upper area of Wardha River in India. The Thus it is very difficult to predict runoff at the dam due to

model is developed by processing online data over time using

static modular neural network modeling. Methodologies and

the nonlinear and unknown parameters.

techniques for four models are presented in this paper and a In this context, the power of ANNs arises from the

comparison of the short term runoff prediction results between capability for constructing complicated indicators (non-

them is also conducted. The prediction results of the Modular

linear models). Among several artificial intelligence

feedforward neural network with model two indicate a

satisfactory performance in the three hours ahead of time methods artificial neural networks (ANN) holds a vital role

prediction. The conclusions also indicate that Modular and even ASCE Task Committee Reports have accepted

feedforward neural network with model two is more versatile ANNs as an efficient forecasting and modeling tool of

than other and can be considered as an alternate and practical complex hydrologic systems[22].

tool for predicting short term flood flow.

Neural networks are widely regarded as a potentially ef-

Keywords- Artificial neural network, Forecasting, Rainfall, fective approach for handling large amounts of dynamic,

Runoff, Models. non-linear and noisy data, especially in situations where the

underlying physical relationships are not fully understood.

I. INTRODUCTION Neural networks are also particularly well suited to

modeling systems on a real-time basis, and this could

The main focus of this research is development of greatly benefit operational flood forecasting systems which

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for short term aim to predict the flood hydrograph for purposes of flood

flood forecasting, determining the characteristics of warning and control[16].

different neural network models. Comparisons are made

between the performances of different artificial neural Artificial neural netwark are applied for flood

network models of Modular feedforward neural network for forecasting using different models.

optimal result.

Multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) are feedforward neural

The field engineers face the danger of very heavy flow networks trained with the standard backpropagation

of water through the gates to control the reservoir level by algorithm. They are supervised networks so they require a

proper operation of gates to achieve the amount of water desired response to be trained. They learn how to transform

flowing over the spillway. This can be limited to maximum input data into a desired response, and widely used for

allowable flood and control flood downstream restricting modeling prediction problems [2].

river channel capacity so as to have safe florid levels in the

river within the city limits on the downstream [21]. Backpropagation computes the sensitivity of the output

with respect to each weight in the network, and modifies

By keeping the water level in the dam at the optimum each weight by a value that is proportional to the sensitivity.

level in the monsoon the post monsoon replenishment can

be conveniently stored between the full reservoir level and Radial basis functions networks have a very strong

the permissible maximum water level. Flood estimation is mathematical foundation rooted in regularization theory for

very essential and plays a vital role in planning for flood solving ill-conditioned problems. The mapping function of a

regulation and protection measures. radial basis function network, is built up of Gaussians rather

than sigmoids as in MLP networks [7].

The total runoff from catchment area depends upon

various unknown parameters like Rainfall intensity, A subset of historical rainfall data from the Wardha

Duration of rainfall, Frequency of intense rainfall, River catchment in India was used to build neural network

models for real time prediction. Telematic automatic rain

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gauging stations are deployed at eight identified strategic building blocks may be combined to form a comprehensive

locations which transmit the real time rainfall data on hourly system. The modules decompose the problem into two or

basis. At the dam site the ANN model is developed to more subsystems that operate on inputs without

predict the runoff three hours ahead of time. communicating with each other. The input unites are

mediated by an integrating unit that is not permitted to feed

In this paper, we demonstrate four different models of information back to the module (Jacobs, Jordan, Nowlan,

Modular feedforward neural network (M FF) models for and Hinton, 1991).

real time prediction of runoff at the dam and compare the

effectiveness of these methods. As the name indicates, the Four different models as shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2

modular feedforward networks are special cases of MLPs, are studied. We use two hidden layers, tanh activation

such that layers are segmented into modules. This tends to function with 0.7 momentum and mean squared error of

create some structure within the topology, which will foster the cross validation set as stopping criteria which give the

specialization of function in each sub-module. optimal results.

At a time when global climatic change would seem to be

increasing the risk of historically unprecedented changes in

river regimes, it would appear to be appropriate that

alternative representations for flood forecasting should be

considered.

II. METHODOLOGY

In this study four methods are employed for rainfall-

runoff modeling using Modular feedforward neural network

model.

Of the entire learning algorithm, the error

backpropagation method is the most widely used. Although

this algorithm has been successful in many applications, it

has disadvantages such as the long training time that can be

inconvenient in practical and on-line applications. This

necessitates the improvement of the basic algorithm or

integration with other forms of network configurations such

as modular networks studied here.

Figure 2. The Modular feedforward model III and IV neural network

Performance Measures:

The learning and generalization ability of the estimated

NN model is assessed on the basis of important performance

measures such as MSE (Mean Square Error), NMSE

(Normalized Mean Square Error) and r (Correlation

coefficient)

The formula for the mean square error is:

d yij

P N

2

ij

j 0 i 0

MSE

NP

… (1)

Where

P = number of output PEs,

Figure 1. The Modular feedforward model I and II neural network

N = number of exemplars in the data set,

The modular architecture allows decomposition and

yij

assignment of tasks to several modules. Therefore, separate = network output for exemplar i at PE j,

architectures can be developed to each solve a sub-task with

the best possible architecture, and the individual modules or d ij

= desired output for exemplar i at PE j.

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B. NMSE (Normalized Mean Square Error: many times this catchment receives very heavy intense

The normalized mean squared error is defined by the cyclonic precipitation for a day or two. Occurrence of such

following formula: events have been observed in the months of August and

September. Rainfall is so intense that immediately flash

P N MSE runoff, causing heavy flood has been very common feature

NMSE

N

N

2 in this catchment.

N dij 2 dij

P

For such flashy type of catchment and wide variety

j 0

i 0

N

i 0

in topography, runoff at dam is still complicated to predict.

… (2) The conventional methods also display chaotic result. Thus

ANN based model is built to predict the total runoff from

Where rainfall in Upper Wardha catchment area for controlling

P = number of output processing elements, water level of the dam.

N = number of exemplars in the data set, In the initial reaches, near its origin catchment area is

hilly and covered with forest. The latter portion of the river

MSE = mean square error, lies almost in plain with wide valleys.

d ij The catchment area up to dam site is 4302 sq. km. At

= desired output for exemplar i at processing

dam site the river has wide fan shaped catchment area which

element j. has large variation with respect to slope, soil and vegetation

cover.

C. r (correlation coefficient) :

The size of the mean square error (MSE) can be used to

determine how well the network output fits the desired

output, but it doesn't necessarily reflect whether the two sets

of data move in the same direction. For instance, by simply

scaling the network output, the MSE can be changed

without changing the directionality of the data. The

correlation coefficient (r) solves this problem. By definition,

the correlation coefficient between a network output x and a

desired output d is:

_

x x

_

i d i d

i

Figure 3- Location of Upper Wardha dam on Indian map

r N

_

2

_

2 Data: Rainfall runoff data for this study is taken from

d id

x i x

the Wardha river catchment area which contains a mix of

i i urban and rural land. The catchments is evenly distributed in

N N … (3) eight zones based on the amount of rainfall and

geographical survey. The model is developed using

historical rainfall runoff data , provided by Upper Wardha

1 N _

1 N Dam Division Amravati, department of irrigation Govt. of

x d

_

x i d i Maharashtra. Network is trained by rainfall information

where N i 1 and N i 1 gathered from eight telemetric rain-gauge stations

distributed evenly throughout the catchment area and runoff

at the dam site.

The correlation coefficient is confined to the range [-1,

1]. When r = 1 there is a perfect positive linear correlation

between x and d, that is, they co-vary, which means that

they vary by the same amount.

The Upper Wardha catchment area lies directly in the

path of depression movements which originates in the Bay

of Bengal. When the low pressure area is formed in the Bay

of Bengal and cyclone moves in North West directions,

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Model - I

10

Runoff

6

0

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Exem plar

Figure 4- The Wardha river catchment

The data is received at the central control room online Actual Vs Predicted Runoff by Modular feedforward

Model - II

through this system on hourly basis. The Upper Wardha

dam reservoir operations are also fully automated. The 9

amount of inflow, amount of discharge is also recorded on 8

7

hourly basis. From the inflow and discharge data the 6

cumulative inflow is calculated. The following features are

Runoff

5

identified for the modeling the neural network . 4

3

2

1

TABLE I. THE PARAMETERS USED FOR TRAINING THE NETWORK 0

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

M R R R R R R R R C

Exem plar

onth G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 IF

Actual Runoff Predicted Runoff

• Month – The month of rainfall Figure 6.– Actual Vs. Predicted runoff by M FF M-II

• Rain1 to Rain8 – Eight rain gauging stations. Actual Vs Predicted Runoff by Modular feedforward Model -III

8

Seven years of data on hourly basis from 2001 to 2007 is 7

6

used. It has been found that major rain fall (90%) occurs in

Runoff

5

the month of June to October Mostly all other months are 4

2

train the network 1

0

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

IV. RESULT Exam plar

The neural network structure is employed to learn the Actual Runoff Predicted Runoff

unknown characterization of the system from the dataset

presented to it. The dataset is partitioned into three Figure 7.– Actual Vs. Predicted runoff by M FF M-III

categories, namely training, cross validation and test. The

idea behind this is that the estimated NN model should be

tested against the dataset that was never presented to it

before. This is necessary to ensure the generalization. An

experiment is performed at least twenty five times with

different random initializations of the connection weights in

order to improve generalization.

The data set is divided in to training , testing and

cross validation data and the network is trained for all

models of Modular feedforward neural network model for

5000 epochs. Fig 5 to Fig 8 shows the plot of actual Vs

predicted values for runoff for Modular feedforward neural

network models.

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Actual Vs Pre dicte d Runoff by Modular fe e dforw ard Error in prediction for Modular feedforward model-III

Mode l -IV

1

9

1.0000

26 2

25 3

8

24 0.5000 4

7 23 5

0.0000

6 22 6

-0.5000

Runoff

5 21 7

-1.0000 error

4

20 8

3

19 9

2

18 10

1 17 11

0 16 12

15 13

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 14

Exam plar

Figure 8.– Actual Vs. Predicted runoff by M FF M-IV Error in prediction for Modular feedforward model- IV

dam site is plotted for all four models of M FF neural 26

0.6000

1

2

networks as shown in the Figure 9 to Figure 12. 25

0.4000

3

24 4

0.2000

23 0.0000 5

Error in prediction for Modular feedforward model-I 22

-0.2000

6

-0.4000

1 -0.6000

21 7

1.0000

26 2 error

25 3 -0.8000

20 8

24 0.5000 4

23 5 19 9

0.0000

22 6 18 10

-0.5000

17 11

21 7

error 16 12

-1.0000 15 13

20 8 14

19 9

18 10

17 11

Fig 12 – Error graph of M FF Model

16 12

15

14

13 After training the network the performance is studied

and in the Table-2 to Table-5 the parameters and the

performances of four different models of Modular

Fig 9 – Error graph of MLP Model feedforward neural network are listed.

Error in predection for Modular feedforward Model- II

TABLE II. M FF M-I NETWORK PERFORMANCE

1

0.6000

26 2

25 3

24 0.4000 4 Parameter Performance- M-I

0.2000

23 5

0.0000

22 -0.2000 6

-0.4000 error

MSE 0.1547

21 7

-0.6000

20 8 NMSE 0.1436

19 9

18 10 Min Abs Error 0.0652

17 11

16 12

15

14

13 Max Abs Error 0.8193

r 0.4619

Fig 10 – Error graph of M FF Model

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Parameter Performance-M-II

MSE 0.1547 0.08 0.09 0.10

MSE 0.0872 72 68 68

NMSE 0.0764 NMSE 0.1436 0.07 0.11 0.12

Min Abs Error 0.0246 64 96 63

Max Abs Error 0.4601 Min 0.0652 0.02 0.03 0.05

Abs Error 46 42 19

r 0.8106

Max 0.8193 0.46 0.69 0.60

Abs Error 01 04 36

TABLE IV. MFF M-III NETWORK PERFORMANCE

r 0.4619 0.81 .734 0.61

06 2 84

Parameter Performance-M-III

MSE 0.0968 The main advantage of M FF is that in contrast to the

NMSE 0.1196 MLP, modular feedforward networks do not have full

interconnectivity between the layers. Therefore, a smaller

Min Abs Error 0.0342 number of weights are required for the same size network

Max Abs Error 0.6904 (the same number of PEs). This tends to speed the training

and reduce the number of examples needed to train the

r 0.7342 network to the same degree of accuracy.

An ANN-based short-term runoff forecasting system is

developed in this work. A comparison between four

Parameter Performance-M-IV different models of Modular feedforward neural network

MSE 0.1068 model is made to investigate the performance of four

distinct approaches. We find that Modular feedforward

NMSE 0.1263 neural network with model-II approach is more versatile

Min Abs Error 0.0519 than others. Modular feedforward neural network with

module-II is performing better as compare to other

Max Abs Error 0.6036 approaches studied as far as the overall performance is

r 0.6184 concerned for forecasting runoff for 3 hrs lead time. Other

models of Modular feedforward neural network are also

performing optimally. Which means that static model of

Modular feedforward neural network with model-II is

The parameters and performance for all four models of M powerful tool for short term runoff forecasting for Wardha

FF model are compared on the performance scale and are River basin

listed in the Table 6 shown below. The comparative analysis

of the MSE, NMSE and r (the correlation coefficient) is

done. ACKNOWLEDGMENT

This study is supported by Upper Wardha Dam Division

TABLE VI. COMPARISON OF PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS

Amravati, department of irrigation Govt. of Maharashtra,

India.

TABLE VII.

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AUTHORS PROFILE

Rahul Deshmukh received the B.E. and M.E. degrees in Electronics Engineering from Amravati University. During 1996-

2007, he stayed in Government College of Engineering, Amravati in department of Electronics and telecommunication teaching

undergraduate and postgraduate students. From 2007 till now he is with Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bombay, Mumbai. His

area of reserch are artificial intelligence and neural networks.

A. A. Ghatol received the B.E. from Nagpur university foallowed by M. Tech and P.hd. from IIT Bombay. He is best teacher award

recipient of government of Maharastra state. He has worked as director of College of Engineering Poona and Vice-Chancellor, Dr.

Babasaheb Ambedkar Technological University, Lonere, Raigad, India. His area of research is artificial intelligence, neural networks and

semiconductors

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