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A project of Volunteers in Asia

~~Q Resist the Effect of Wind, Volume 2~

,E:stimatiQl) of Extreme wind Speeds and G\.lide to
the Determination of Wind Force~
by: Emil Simiu and Richard D. Marshall
Published by:
National Bureau of Standards
U.S. Department of Commerce
Washington, DC 20234 USA
Paper copies are $ 1.30. Ask for stock number
003-003-01718-3 when ordering.
Available from:
superintendent of Documents
US Government Documents
Washington, DC 20402 USA

.Reproduction of this microfiche document in any

form 1s subject to the same restrictions as those
of the original document.
Building To Resist The Effect Of Wind
VOLUME 2. Estimation of Extreme Wind
Speeds and Guide to the
Determination of Wind Forces


-,-- .......... .....,..,......,...."....~---------------- -----~------~~~~~~~----


Building To Resist
The Effect Of WInd
In five volumes

VOLUME 2: Estimation o( Extreme Wind Speeds and

Guide to the Determination of Wind
Emil 5imiu
Richard D. Marshall
Center for Building Technology
Institute for Applied Technology
National Bureau of Standards
Washington, D.C. 20234

Sponsored by:

The Office of Science and Technology

Agency for International Development
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20523

u.s. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, Juanita M. Kreps, Secretary

NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS, Ernest Ambler, Acting Director
Issued May 1977

i~hl:~;,;~ ::, f;' : ,
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 77-600013
National Bureau of Standards Building Science Series 100-2
!\lat. Bur. Stand. (U.S.), Bldg. Sci. Ser. 100-2, .~9 .pages (May 1977)

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office

Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price $1.30
Stock No. 003-003-61718-3

The Agency for International Development spon-

sored with the National Bureau of Standards, a three
and a half year research project to develop improved
design criteria for low-rise buidings to better resist the
effects of extreme winds.
Project results are presented in five volumes. Volume
1 gives a background of the research activities, ac-
complishments. results, and recommendations. In
Volume 3, a guide for improved use of masonry
fasteners and timber connectors are discussed.
Volume 4 furnishes a methodology to estimate and
forecast housing needs at a regional level. Socio-
economic and architectural considerations for the
Philippines. Jamaica, and Bangladesh are presented in
Volume 5.
Volume 2 consists of two reports. The first reviews the
theoretical and practical considerations that are perti-
nent to the estimation of probabilistically defined
wind speeds. Results of the statisticai analysis of ex-
treme wind data in the Philippines are presented and
interpreted. Recommendations based on these results
are made with regard to the possible redefinition of
wind zones, and tentative conclusions are drawn
regarding the adequacy of design wind speeds cur-
rently used in the Philippines. Report two describes
some of the more common flow mechanisms which
create wind pressures on low-rise buildings and the
effects of building geometry on these pressures. It is
assumed that the basic wind speeds are known and a
procedure is outlined for calculating design wind
speeds which incorporates the expected life of the
structure, the mean recurrence interval, and the wind
speed averaging time. Pressure coefficients are tabu-
lated for various height-lo-width ratios and roof
slopes. The steps required to calculate pressures and
total drag and uplift forces are summarized and an il-
lustrative example is presented.

Key words: Building codes; buildings; codes and standards;

housing; hurricanes; pressure coefficients; probability dis-
tribution functions; risk; statistical analysis; storms; struc-
tural engineering; tropical storms; wind loads; wind speeds.

Cover: Instruments to measure wi"d speed and direction

(Ieing installed 0" a 10 meter mast at tlfe project test site
in Quezon City, Philil'pi/les.
1.1 Introduction ....................................................................... 1
1.2 Wind Speed Data .................................................................. 2
1.2.1 Type of Instrumentation ........................ " ............................. 2
1.2.2 Averaging Time.................................. ' ..................... " ..... 3
1.2.3 Height Above Ground ......................................................... 3
1.2.4 Distance Inland From the Coastline .. , ........ '" .... , .......................... 4
1.3 Probabilistic Models of Extreme -'Vind Speeds ........ " ............................... 4
1.4 Assessment of Procedures Based on the Annual Highest Speed .......................... 4
1.4.1 Wind C!imates Characterized by Small Values of opt('Y) .......................... 5
1.5 Assessment of Procedure Based on the Highest Average Monthly Speed . . . . . . . . .. . ...... 6
1.6 Statistical Analysis of Extreme Wind Data in the Philippines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... 6
1.7 Interpretation of Results .. , ..... " ............... , ............ , .... , ................ 7
1.7.1 Zone m .. , ........ , .......................... , ............................... 7
1.7.2 Zone II , ..... ,. " .. ,. '" '" " ......... , ..... ' .................. " ............ 8
1.7.3 Zone I ........................... , ........................................... 8
1.8 Conclusions ................. , ....... ' ..... , , .. , .. , ..... , . , ........ , , , ............. 9
ACKNOWLE()(;MENTS ................................................................. 9

REFERENCES ........................................................................... 9

:. 2. A GUIDE TO THE DETERMINATION OF WIND FORCES .............................. 13

2.1 Introduction .............................................. '........................ 13

2.2 Aerodynamics of Buildings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 13
2.2.1 Typical Wind Flow Around Buildings .......................................... 14
2.2.2 Effect of Roof Slope ......................................................... , 14
2,2.3 Roof Overhangs... , .. , . , .... , ........... " ............ , ...................... 14
2.3 I>esign Wind Speed '" ......................................................... 15
2.3.1 Mean Recurrence Interval. ... , ........ , , .................. , , ... ,', ............. 15
2.3.2 Risk Factor, ........ , ................. , ...................................... IS
2.3.3 Averaging Time and Peak Wind Speed ................................ , ........ 15
2.4 I>esigh Pressures ........ , ........ , ....... , ........................................ 15
2.4.1 Dynamic Pressure ............. , ......... " ................................... IS
2.4.2 Mean and Fluctuating Components of Pressure .................................. 15
2.4.3 Pressure Coefficients ........ , " ............. , ................. : .' .............. 16
2.4.4 Correction Factor for Height of Building ........................................ 17
2.5 Procedure for Calculating Wind Forces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 17
ACKNOWLE()(;MENTS ................................................................. 18

Illustrative Example ................................................................... 22
Comment ............................................................................ 23

Fig. 1 Ratio, r, of Maximum Probable Wind Speeds
Averaged over t seconds to those Averaged over 2 sec ............................... 11
Fig. 2 Quantity B.... ....... " ..................... , .. " ................................ 111
Fig. 3 Probability Plots;
(a) Type II Distribution, 'Y = 2 ..................................................... '12

'i:c..... '

(b) Type I Distribution ............................................................ 12

Fig. 4 Typical Flow !lattern and Surface Pressures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . ..................... l4
Fig. 5 Vortices Along Edge of Roof. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .15
Fig. 6 Areas of Intense Suctions ........................................................... 15
Fig.7 Typical Record of Wind Speed and Surface PIessure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .16

Table 1 Suggested Values of Zo for Various Types of Exposures ................................ 3
Table 2 Maximum Annual Winds (I minute average) ......................................... 7
Table 3 Station Descriptions and Estimated Extreme Wind Speeds ............................. 7
Table 4 Mean Recurrence Interval ......................................................... 18
Table 5 Relationships Between Risk of Occurrence, Mean Recurrence Interval and Expected
Life of Building ..................................... '. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Table 6 Pressure Coefficients for Walls of Rectangular Buildings ............................ , .. 19
Table 7 Pressure Coefficients for Roofs of Rectangular Buildings ......................... , .. 20
Table 8 Internal Pressure Coefficients for Rectangular Buildings ............................... 21
Table 9 Correction Factors (R)for Height of Building ...................................... , .. 21

Facing Page: A wind sf!IIsor is illstalled 011 the wall of a test

house ill QUezOIl City, Philippilles. Pressures actillX 011
walls alld Oil the roof of the test /luildillg Ilre cOIll'l'rted /'Y
these S('IISOrs illto L'iectriCllI siXlIll/s which are recorded 01/
IIIIlXIletic til,,,,.
E. Simiu

In modern building COlit'S ilnd ... t,lJ1dard~ II, ~J ba~i( wind speed, Itthl'~tdti(ln l"l'l1l' Illr \\'hllh wind
design wind "~'ll'l'ds are spl'ciiil'd in explicitlv pro- rl'cord" ,'\'l'r a numlwr lli (OI1"l'cutl\'l' \'l'.1r" ,11'l'
babilistic terms, At any givcn station a random \'.H1,1- ilvailabl!.', ,hen thl' ClIl1lul,1ti\'l' di~tJ Ibutilln tUI1t'tf('11
ble can be defined, which consists of thl' I.Hgl'~t \'Carlv (CDI') p; \hi~ ral1dlllll \ dri,1bll' 111.1\', ,It le.l"t II'i tlll'llr\
be estimated to characterize the probabilistic behavior monthly wind speed recorded at the station investi-
of the largest yearly wind fpeeds. The basic design gated. The question of selecting the most appropriate
wind speed is then defined as the speed correspond- distribution is one that deserves close attention: in-
ing to a specified value FO of the CDF or, equivalently deed, as indicated in References 23 and 22, the mag-
(in view of the relation N = 1/ (I -Fa> in which N = nitude of the basic design wind speed may depend
mean recurrence intervaI), as the speed correspond- strongly upon the probabilistic model used.
ing to a specified mean recurrence interval. For exam-
A!>Suming that the type of probability distribution best
ple, the American National Sta,ndard ASS.l [1]
suited for modeling the behavior of the extreme
specifies that a basic design wind speed corresponding
winds is known, a second important question arises,
to a SO-year mean recurrence interval (i.e, to a value
viz., that of the errors associated with the probabilistic
Foofthe CDF equal to 0.9S, or to a probability of ex-
approach to the definition of design wind speeds.
ceedance of the basic wind speed in anyone year
Such errors dep~nd primarily upon the quality of the
equal to 0.02) be used in designing all permanent
data and upon the length of the record (Le., the sam-
structures, except those structures with an unusually
pie size) available for analysis.
high degree of hazard to life and property in case of
faHure, for which a lOO-year mean recurrence inter- These questions wi II be dealt with in this work, which
val (FO = 0.99) must be used, and structures having no wiII also present results of statistical ana lyses of wind
human occupants or where there is negligible risk to speed data recorded in the Philippines. In the liglit of
human life, for which a 25-year mean recurrence the material presented herein, possible approaches
(fO = 0.96) may bP. used. A wind speed corresponding will be examined to the definition of extreme wind
to a N-year recurrence interval is commonly referred speeds for purposes of structural design in the Philip-
to as the N-year wind. pines.
The mean recurrence intervals specified by building 1.2 WIND SPEED OAT A
codes, rather than being based on a formal risk
analysis-which is in practice not feasible in the pre- For the statistical analysis of extremt' wind speeds to
sent state of the art--are seiected in such a manner as be meaningful, the data used in the analysis must be
to yield basic wind speeds which, by professional con- reliable and must constitute an homogeneous set. The
~nsus, are judged to be adequate from a structural
data may be considered to be reliable if:
safety viewpoint. Nevertheless, it is generally • The performance of the instrumentation used
a!"".,umed that adequate probabilistic definitions of for obtaining the data (i.e., the sensor and the record-
design wind speeds offer, at least in theory, the ad- ing system> can be determined to have been adequate.
vantage of insuring a certain d~ee of consistency • The sensor was exposed in such a way that it
with regard to the effect of the wind loads upon struc- was not influenced by local flow variations due to the
tural safety. This is true in the sen.o;e that, all relevant proximity of an obstruction (e.g., building top, ridge
factors being equal, if appropriate mean recurrence or instrument support).
intervals are used in design, the probabilities of failure
of buildings in different wind climates will, on the A set of wind speed data is referred to herein as
average, be the same. homogeneous if all the data belonging to the set may
be considered to have been obtained under identical
In the practical application of the probabilistic ap- or c?quivalent conditions. These conditions are deter-
proach to the definition of design wind speeds, cer- mined by the following factors, which will be briefly
tain important questions arise. One such question per- discussed below:
tains to the type of probability distribl -tion best suited
for modeling the probabilistic behavior of the extreme • type of instrumentation used
winds. The provisions of the National Building Code • averaging time (i.e, whether highest gust, fastest
of Canada [2] are based upon the assumption that this mile, one-minute average, five-minute average, etc.
behavior is best modeled by a Type I (Gumbel) dis- was recorded).
tribution. The American National Standard ASS.l [1], • height above ground
on the other hand, assumes that the appropriate • roughness of surrounding terrain (exposure)
models are Type II (Frechet) distributions with loca-
tion parameters equal to zero and with tail length • in the case of tropical cyclone winds, distance
parameters dependent only upon type of storm. inland from the coastline.
Finally, Thorn [29J has proposed a model consisting of 1.2.1 Type of instrumentation
a mixed probability distri17ution, the parameters of
which are functions of (a) the frequency of occurrence
of tropical cyclones in the 5° longitude-latitude square If, during the period of record, mOre than one' type of
under consideration and (b) the maximum average instrument has been employed for obtaining the data,

the various instrument characteristics (anemometer The zero pI ;me displacement Zd may in all cases be
and recorder) must be carefully taken into account assumed to be zero, except that in cities (or in wooded
and the data must be adjusted accordingly. terrain) Za = 0.75 h, where h = average height of
buildings in the surrounding area (or of trees) [10, 16].
1.2.2 Averaging Time Thus, for example, if in open terrain with Zo = 0.05 m,
If various averaging times have been used during the UC23} = 30 mIs, then adjustment of this value to the
period of record, the data must be adjusted to a com- height Z. = 10 m, using Equation 1, gives
mon averaging time. This can be done using graphs
such as those presented in Reference 19 and included
in figure 1 in which Z. is a parameter deJning the o:os
5.3~ = 25 .9
terrain roughness (see, for example, Ref. 10). UOO} = U(23) ---
= 30 6.13 I
In S.
1.2.3 Height Above Ground
If, during the period of record, the elevation of the
It is noted that, in most cases, the roughness
anemometer had been changed, the data must be ad-
justed to a cbmmon elevation as follows: Let the
parameters Zo, Zd must be estimated subjectively,
roughness length and the zero plane displacement be rather than being determined from measurements.
Good judgment and experience are reqUired to keep
denoted by Z. and Zd, respectively (Zo' Zd' are
parameters which define the roughness of terrain. see the errors inherent in such estimates within ~easona­
Ref. 10). The relation between the mean wind speeds ble bounds. In conducHng statistical studies of the ex-
U(Z1) and U(ZJ over horizontal terrain of uniform
treme winds, it is advisable that for any particular set
roughness at elevation Z1 and Z. above ground, of data, an analysis be made of the sensitivity of the
respectively, can be written as results to possible errors in the estimation of Z and
Zd' 0

In the case of winds associated with large-scale ex-

tratropical storms, the mean wind U(Z) at height Z in
terrain of roughness ZQ' Zd is related ao; follows to the
mean wind U1(ZI) at height ZI in terrain of roughness
ZOJI Zdl [21]:

Suggested. values of the roughness length Zo are given

in table 1 (see refs. 10,21,7). For example, at Sale,
Australia, for terrain described as open grassland with
few trees, at Cardington, England, for open farmland
broken by a few trees and hedge rows, and at
Heathrow Airport in London, Z. = 0.08 m [10, 21]. At
Cranfield, England where the ground upwind of the The quantity, fJ, may be obtained from figure 2,
anemometer is open for a distance of half a mile w hiGh was developed in Reference 21':>0 the basis of
across the corner of an airfield, and where neighbor- theoretical and experimental work reported by
ing land is broken by small hedged fields,.Z. = O.09Sm Csanady [4] and others [26]. (Note that ZOI <Zo'>
[91. The values of Z. for built-up terrain should be
regarded as tentative. It is noted that Equation 1 is ap- Equation 2 may be applied if the roughness of the ter-
plicable to mean winds and should not be used to rain is homogeneous over a horizontal distance from
repr.e-;~nt the profiles of peak gusts. the anemometers of about 100 times the anemometer
elevation [1s, 24].

Table 1. Sugested Values of Z. for Various Types Let, for example, U(ZI) = 29 mIs, Zi = 10 m, ZOi = 0.05
of Exposure m, Zdl = O. The corresponding speed U(Z) at Z = 40 m,
say, in open terrain of roughness Zo = 0.25 m, Zd = 0 is
Type of Exposure Z.(meters)

Coastal 0.005-0.01 Rn 40
Open 0.03- 0.10
VOO) = 1.12 x 29 ~ = 31.1 m/s.
Outskirts of towns, suburbs 0.20- 0.30
<:;enters of towns 0.35- 0.45
Centers of large cities 0.60~ 0.80
where 1.12 is the value of fJ for ZOI = 0.05 m, Zo = 0.25
m,obtained from figure 2.

It is pc ~nted out that, just as in the case of Equation 1, various authors as follows:
errors are inherent in Equation 2 that are associated
(a) In Reference 23, estimates are made of all three
with the subjective estinl.'!',lon of the roughness
parameters, p., u and 'Y in Equation 3, no specific
parameters. Also, recent research suggests that in the
value being assigned a priori to any of these
case of tropical cyclone winds Equation 2 underesti-
mates wind speeds over built-up terrain, calculated as
(b) In References 27 and 28, the location parameter is
functions of speeds over open terrain, by amounts of
assumed to have the value p. = O. Estimates are then
the order of 15% or morel17].
made of the remaining parameters, u and p.. The ar-
1.2.4 Distance InI.tnd from the Coastline bitrary assumption that p. = 0 entails a sacrifice in
goodness of fit; the justification for using this assump-
The intensity of hurricane or typhoon winds is a tion is that it makes possible the application of
decreasing function of the distance inland from the Lieblein';, well-known estimation procedure [13] to
coastline. Hurricane wind speeds may be adjusted to a obtain values of u andy [27]. However, in view of the
common distance from the coastline by applying recent development of alternative estimation pro-
suitable reduction factors. Such reduction fadors have cedures applicable to type II distributions with p.-FO
been proposed by Malkin, according tc -... hom the [23], the assumption that p. = 0 becomes unneces-
ratios of peak gusts at 48, 96 and 144 km from the sary.
coastline to peak gusts at the coastline are 0.88, 0.82
and 0.78, respectively [8, 141. (c) Court in the United States (3), Davenport in
Canada (5] and Kintanar in the Philippines [12) have
1.3 PROBABILISTIC MODELS OF EXTREME assumed the universality of the type I distribution,
WIND SPEEDS i.e., that the tail length parameter is always y = 00,
The nature of the variate suggests that an appropriate Estimates are then made of the parameters #L and u,
model of extreme wind behavior is provided by prob- The second procedure assumes the universal validity
ability distributions of the largest values, the general of the mixed distribution
expression for which is 1II]:

F(v) = exp j-Htl-#L)/uJI-'Y J #L<t1<00

-00 <#L<oo (3)
proposed by Thorn in Reference 29. The First and the
second term in the sum of Equation 5 represent the
probabilities that the winds associated with extra-
where II = wind speed, #L = location parameter, u = tropical storms and with tropical cyclones, respec-
scale parameter, 'Y = tail length parameter. Equation 3 tively, will not exceed the value, v, in anyone year.
may be regarded as representing a family of distribu- The scale parameter, u, is an explicit function of the
tions, each characterized by a value of the tail length maximum of the average monthly wind speeds
parameter 'Y. As 'Y becomes larger, the tail of the pro- recorded at the station considered. The second
bability curve becomes shorter, i.e., the probability of parameter of the mixed distribution, PT,is an explicit
occurrence of large values of the variate becomes function of the frequency of occurence of tropical
smaller. In particular, as 'Y - 00, Equation 3 may be cyclones in the 5° longitude-latitude square under con-
shown to become sideration, and PE = 1 - PJ' Thus, in this second pro-
cedure, the series of annua highest winds is not used
F(v) = exp l-exp[-(v-#L)/u] J -oo<tl<OO for estimating distribution parameters.
-00<#L < 00 (4)
An assessment of the models described in this section
O<u<oo will now be presented.


The distributions given by Equations 3 and 4 are ON THE ANNUAL HIGHEST SPEEDS
known as the type II and the type I distributions of
the largest values, respectively. To assess the validity of current probabilistic models,
statistical analyses of annual highest speeds were car-
Two basic ,procedures for estimating probabilities of ried out using a computer program described in
occurrence of extreme winds are currently in use. The Reference 23. The results of the analyses, which are
first procedure consists in estimating the parameters reported in detail in Reference 23, lend credence to
of a probability distribution of the largest values from the belief that a sufficiently long record of annual
the series of annual highest wind speeds at the station largest speeds will provide an acceptable basis for
considered. This procedure has been applied by probabilistic extimates of the N-year winds-even for

large values of N, such as are of interest in structural see table 2), estimated by using the technique
safety calculations-if the following conditions are described in Reference 23. are fl = 38.89 km/hr, fT =
satisfied. First, the value of opt ('Y) for that record is 9.40 km/hr. It follows from Equation 8 that v (SO) = 75
large, say 'Y .? 40 (opt(y) = value of 'Y [see eq. 3] for km/hr and from Equations 6. 7, and 10 that SD[ v (SO)]
which the best distribution fit of the largest values is > 5.18 km/hr. Subsidiary calculations not reported
obtained). Second, meteorological information ob- here have shown that Equation to provides a good
tained at the station in question, as well as at nearby indication of the order of magnitude of the sampling
stations at which the wind climate is similar, indi- errors.
cates that winds considerably in excess of those
reflected in the record cannot be expected to occur ex- 1.4.1 Wind Climates Characterized by Small
cept at intervals many times larger than the record Values of opt (y).
length. Wind climates which satisfy these two condi-
Occasionally, a record obtained in well-behaved
tions will be referred to as well-behaved.
wind climates may exhibit small values of opt (,.); this
Assuming that the wind speed data are reliable, lower will occur if that record contains a wind speed that
bounds for the sampling error in the estimation of the corresponds to a large mean recurrence interval.
N-year winds in a well-behaved climate may be There are regions, however, in which, as a rule, the
calculated on the basis of a mathematical result, the statistical analysiS of extreme wind records taken at
Cramer-Rao relation, which states that for the type I anyone station yields small values of opt (,.). This is
distribution (see ref. 11. p. 282) the case if. in the region considered, winds occur that
are meteorologically distinct from, and considerably
"') 1.10867 ,
var (1£ ?---u- stronger than the usual annual extremes. Thus. in the
n regions where tropical cyclones occur, opt (,.) will in
general be small, unless most annual extremes are
"') 0.60793 ,
V ar (u >-u- associated with tropical cyclone winds. An example
n (7) oi a record for which,. (opt) is small is given in figure
3a, which represents the probability plot with 'Y = opt
where var (,1), va; (u) are the variances of,1 andu, (,.) = 2 for the annual extreme fastest mile-speeds
where,1 and t't are the estimated values of 1£ and u, recorded in 1949-73 at the Corpus Christi, Texas, air-
respectively. obtained by using any appropriate port. For purposes of comparison. the same data have
estimator consistent with basic statistical theory re- been fitted to a type I distribution (opt ( ,.) = 00, or Eq.
quirements; u is the actual value of the scale 4); the fit in this case is seen to be exceedingly poor,
parameter and n is the sample size. Using Equations 6 i.e., the plot deviates strongly from a straight line (fig.
and 7, lower bounds for the standard deviation of the 3b). As shown in Reference 23. a measure of the good-
sampling error in the estimation of the N-year wind, ness of fit is given by the extent to which the pro-
SD[v(N»). can be approximated as follows. Equation 4. bability plot correlation coefficient is close to unity;
in which the parameters 1£, u are replaced by their this coefficient is printed out in figures 3a and 3b.
estimates 1£, u, is inverted to yield
To small values of the tail length parameter there fre-
quently correspond implausibly high values of the
estimated speeds for large recurrence intervals. In the
case of the 1912-48 record at Corpus Christi, for exam-
ple, opt (,.) = 2 and the estimated 5-minute average is
327 mph (155 m/s) for a 1000-year wind, which is
highly unlikely on meteorological grounds. For 20-
year records, the situation may be even worse: thus,
Then for the 1917-36 Corpus Christi record, which contains
an exceptionally high wind speed due to the 1919
hurricane [3, 25], opt (,.) = 1 and the calculated 1000-
year wind is 1952 mph (873 m/s) [23], a ridiculous
Equation 10 is based on the assumption that the error result. Also, the situation is not likely to improve sig-
involved in neglecting the correlation between 1£ and nificantly if the record length increases. From a 74-
CT is small. The validity of this assumption was year record, a plot quite similar to figure 3 would
verified by using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. presumably be obtained, with twice as many points
similarly dispersed, to which there would correspond
Since the actual value of CT is not known, in practical a similar least squares line on probability paper.
calculations the estimated value u is used in Equations
6 and 7. For example, the distribution parameters cor- It may be stated, consequently, that while in the case
respondin& to the wind speed data at Davao (n = 24. of well-behaved climates it appears reasonable to in-

fer from a good fit of the probability curve to the data in which 4.5 < y (v) < 9. If the mean rate of arrival of
that the tail of the curve adequately describes the ex- tropical cyclones in the region considered is high,
treme winds, such an inference is not always justified then y ( til will be closer to 4.5. Otherwise, y (til will be
ifopt(y) is small. closer to 9; in re3ions where hurricanes cannot he ex-
pected to occur, y (t) = 9.1n order that estimates not
It may be argued that one could avoid obtaining
be based upon possibly unrepresentative annual ex-
unreasonable extreme values by postulating that the
treme data, Thom's model does not make use of an-
annual largest winds are described by a probability
nual extreme speeds. Rather, the parameter f7 is esti-
distribution of the type I, i.e., by assigning the value y
mated from the maximum of the average monthly
= 00 to the tail length parameter. This has been done
wind speeds on record at the location considered,
by Court [3J and Kintanar [12]. As can be seen in
presumably a quantity for which the variability is
figure 4, the corresponding fit may be quite poor. small.
However, the estimated extremes at the distribution
tails will be reduced. The drawback of this approach While the quasi-universal climatological distribution
is that unreasonably low estimated extremes may be proposed by Thon is tentative, it will yield results
obtained. For example, at Key West, Florida, if all which, for a first approximation, may in certain cases
three parameters of Equation 3 are estimated as in be regarded as acceptable. This model has recently
Reference 23, to the 1912-48 record there corresponds been used by Evans l6J as a basis for obtaining design
v (tOO) == 99 mph (44.2m/s) and v (1000) = 188 mph (84 wind speeds for Jamaica. Estimates of extreme speeds
m/s~ Reference 23. If it is postulated that y = 00, obtained by Evans are substantially higher than the
then v (SO) = 70 mph (31.7 m/s), v (I 00) = 77 mph (34.4 results obtained by SheJlard [20J in his 1971 analysis
m/s) and v (t000) = 97 mph (38.8 m) (23), an unlikely of Commonwealth Caribbean wind data.
result in view of the high frequency of occurrence of
It was shown in the preceding section that the ap-
hurricanes (about 1 in 7 years) at Key West.
proach which utilizes the series of annual largest
It may also be argued that since the estimated ex- speeds may fail in regions in which hurricanes occur.
tremes resulting from small values of y (say y < 4) For such regions, therefore, it may be that alternative
may be too large, and those corresponding to y = 00 approaches need to be deve!oped. Among such ap-
may be too small, a probability distribution that might proaches is one in which esti mates of extreme winds
yield reasonable results is one in which y has an in- are based upon the follOWing information:
termediate value, say 4< y < 9. Such an approach
• average number of hurricanes affecting the
has been proposed by Thom and will now be ex-
coastal sector considered (per year)
• probability distribution of hurricane intensities
1.5 ASSESSMENT OF PROCEDURE BASED • radial dimensions of hurricanes
MONTHLY SPEED • dependence of wind speeds upon central
pressure and distance from hurricane center.
The procedure for estimating extreme winds in hur- This approach appears to provide useful estimates of
ricane-prone regions on the basis of annual highest
extreme winds corresponding to large recurrence in-
winds at a station was seen to have the following
tervals-which are of interest in ultimate strength
shortcomings. First, because hurricane winds are
calculations--and is currently under study at the Na-
relatively rare events, the available data may not con-
tional Bureau of Standards.
tain wind speeds associated with major hurriCane oc-
, currences and are therefore not representative of the 1.6 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF EXTREME
wind climate at the station considered (see the case of WIND DATA IN THE PHILIPPINES
Calapan in Section 1.7 of this report). Second, in
regions subjected to winds that are meteorologically Through the courtesy of the Philippine Atmospheric,
distinct from, and considerably stronger than the Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administra-
usual annual extJ'emes, implausible estimates may be tion (PAGASA), 16 sets of data were obtained consist-
obtained. ing of maximum yearly wind speeds recorded during
at least 14 consecutive years. The data for each of the
The model proposed by Thom lEq. 5J in Reference 29 16 stations are listed in table 2. Table 3 includes sub-
represents an attempt to eliminate these shortcom- jective station descriptions provided by P AGASA
ings. It can be easily shown by applying the inter- personnel and the results of the analysis. In Table 3
mediate value theorem, that if this model is assumed, are listed VN"pt(oy)= N-year wind based on the dis-
the estimated extreme winds may be obtained by in- tribution for which the best fit of the largest values is
verting an expression of the form: obtained and VN°O = N-year wind based on the type I
distribution, N = mean recurrence interval in years.

-- -- . - -
NO. Station Period of Record Maximum Annual Winds for Each Year of Record Ckm/hourl

1 Davao 1950-73 39,52,40,39,40,37,35,35,32,40,40,40,80,48,48,48,56,46,52,50,46,52,46,46

2 Cagayande 1950-73 47,24,19,13,19,19,12,12,12,19,16,14,21,6,24,17, 19,37,37,46,37,48,41,41
3 Zamboaml:a 1950-73 486440,3948614340484548,72 48,48,50 56 68 67 70,56 617461.78
4 Pasal'Citv 1950-73 89103899272 72 64 72 97 72 81666':1.74.1306580111837420080111 56
5 Manila 1949-70 72, 105,97 ,89,101,97,100,105,81,72,97,89, 121,105,100,168.74,89,107,111,96,200
6 Manila 1902-40 46,56,65,80,73,55,77,70,41,68,50,69,64,68,42, 41,67,54,70,83,58,53,6(1,51,45,
7 Mirador 1914-40 79.79.70,79.121,102,94,72,105,107,122,58.89, I 07,93,63,77.92.63,53,93.73.75.
8 uaguio 1950-73 97.11J~,56.'n,':I7.IH,64,M,61,41S,1f7, 41S,53,':I1S, Ill.lU7.ISU, 144.111i.IU:".15/ ,II~.IIY, 1.1.1
9 Calapan 1959-73 145,,68,40.96,10'1,41,33,111,102,111,83
10 ~urigao 1':I~2-73 1115,43.1 Li,411,40,40,43,48,64,64,1I9,39,74.52.711.104.167,111.96.107, 16,74
11 Laoag 1949-73 34,72.118,71,1011,100,64.,79.64.105,90,144,144,78,120,137,1110,67,89,(,7 ZO
12 110110 \949-73 97,1U6,64,64,':I7,64,64,M.72,74.M.7IS,71\,1\':I,74,.61,~:.!,61,1S':I.56.74

13 L~u 1':I::>U-7J 'J~ .:.0,

,L ,4S,81.04.4K.4K.4K.4:1.4I1,4:1.64.h4.:.o.4!:1.:.o. .'J:I.o:>.:>o. UU.l4.;>'-! .. ___ ----
14 Legaspi 1955-73 129.185:·)7.B2.89. \04.74.89. 148 74 70 174 14820481
15 Tacloban 1949-73 I:l7.58, 106.1 I:l.56.68.60,47,48.69.87,42. \05.93.;4.111.
70.194.I:n.lh7 63 III 15510467
16 Infanta 1960-73


Wias ! v·Nopdyl'·' fkm/hrl
Zone- Period of No. of AMmomeler Dflcription v Noof fkm/hrl
No. SUlion !ftlWf.15 Record Yellrs Elevillion Cmelers) of Terrain opllyl

I Davao III ,q5tI-7J l~ HI Tuwn 00 7<, Rl 105

Z CaJlily.n III ,q5t~7J hI h9 94
de Oro
3 Zamb""nll" III ,q5tI-7J 24 III Ol"'n 00 lIS q5 117
..""V ,'v II I~"'- _4 ( ll\irpmt -7 !211 2n H211
1M IHII -'.34
Manta II Tllp l,f 5...tur~· 2tm 2JS 1'12
" buildin'
rurt ,\n'.l 212 Vh

h Manila n 1"'124(1 W h" Op,mm"kl ~5 1Il~ 112 144 lUI 1111 1:111
Mlraaor II 1~1~-4fl "7 II~ I Muunt.lin hlp 00 IW 151 192
BagUill (I:;UU m .It-Wt.·
sea J~Vl.·1)
~ Baguiu II ,q5fI-7J 2~ 111 Mllut.lin top 00 1M IHO 230
;, (l:;UU m .lblwt.,
*a level)
9 Cal.pan II ,q~7J 15 iO Top of hill; 00 2(lq 234 31h
town on one
to I ""rill"O I 19. 2~ .
" 7 L.I~Cily
Top uf 40rn
40 170 191 26. 167 IR7 250

II I..loaa n 1949-73 2., 12 o...n 00 174 192 252
19~-73 1,2
12 Ilioio II 24 I-.-own 2 1110 z.l~ MIl 1311 192

\3 Cebu n 1950-73 24 10 Airport ... 127 140 185

14 1
locl_n I

Z, - o""vo
!!OPO .m
J". 2114
'1m bldg.l
l'b n anla '_'-1. 14 1111 own; ""'don·
Hal area
• 24" 2..., 4l1li 214 242 -'3:

a3 CUp anemometer; mean speed averaged over one minute. dNorth and East: sea exposure.
"Mean speed averaged Over one minute. e .:>mitted if opt (y) = 00.
cTrees at East side of anemometer_ lOne minute averages,

1.7 INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS It is noted that fO,r all three Zone III stations listed in
Table 3, opt (y) = 00. It is convenient to adjust the
The results will be grouped into three classes, accord- speeds at Davao and Cagayan de Oro to open terrain
ing to the wind zone (as defined in Ref. 15) in which exposure. On the basis of the terrain descriptions of
the stations considered are located (table 3). Table 3, if it is assumed Zo = 0.30 m, Zd = 0, ZOI = 0.08
m, Zdl = 0, it follows from Equation 2 that
1.7.1 Zone III

as obtained if the data covering the period 1959-1973
UOO}== 0.8
U (10) are used (see table 3). Since wind loads are propor-
tional to the square of the wind speeds, the ratio be-
tween the respective estimated winds loads is
where U(10}, U 1(10} are mean speeds above ground in (209/141)2 = 2.2.
town and open exposure, respectively. Thus, in
Davao and Cagayan de Oro the calculated 50-y~ar Although the record at Pasay City is best fitted by a
mean speeds at 10 m above ground in open terrain are type II distribution with opt (y) == 2. it is unlikely, as
58 mph and 47 mph (94 km/hr and 76 km/hr) respec- noted previously, that such a distribution correctly
tively, versus 55 mph, (88 km/hr) in Zamboanga. If the describes the behavior of the extreme winds. This is
corresponding highest gusts are obtained by multiply- obvious, particularly in the case of the 1000-yr wind,
ing.the one-minute means by a factor of, ~y, 1.20 (see which, on physical grounds, could not possibly attain
fig. H, the estimated highest 50-yr gusts at Davao, 509 mph (820 km/hr) (see table 3).
Cagayan de Oro and Zamboanga are at most 94 x 1.20
The National Structural Code of the Philippines
== 113 km/hr, (70mph), i.e., conSiderably lower than
specifies, for Zone II and elevations under 9.15 m, a
the value specified for design purposes by the Na-
design wind of 109 mph (175 km/hr). In the light of
tiona 1 Structural Code ofthe Philippines [I5] for Zone
the data shown in table 2, the value appears to be
flI, viz., 95 mph (153 km/hr). This suggests that the re-
reasonable. It will be noted that tables 2 and 3, and
quirements of Reference 15 regarding wind loading in
figure 13 of Reference 15 indicate that the extreme
the Zone III portion of Mindanao are conservative
speeds and the frequency of occurrence of tropical
and might be somewhat reduced. (It can be easily
cyclones, are considerably higher at Laoag than at
shown, on the basis of Eq. 2 and figure 1, that this
Cebu. This suggests that Zone II could be divided, ac-
statement holds even if it is assumed that the errors in
cordingly, into two subzones. with wind load require-
the estimation of the parameter values Zo == 0.30 m
ments higher in the northern than in the southern
and Z 01 = 0.08 m are of the order of as much as 50%.)
To validate such a conclusion it would however be
necessary to determine, from long-term records of 1.7.3 Zone I.
tropical cyclone occurences, that the 1950-73 data at
the three stations analyzed are indeed representative As indicated previously. if y(opt) is small, i.c., if the
for southern Mindanao. differences am0ng maximum wind speeds rL' 'vrded
in various years are large, the probability di~" , ,:.
1.7.2 Zone II. tions that best fit the dnta may not describe em .
Several difficulties arise in interpreting the results for the extreme wind speeds for large recurrence in'.,>;
the Zone II stations in table 3. It is noted, first, that the vals. The minimum and the maximum winds for the
results obtained at stations in and near Manila (sta- period of record are, at Legaspi, 25 mph (40 km/hr)
tions 4, 5, 6 in table 3) are widely divergent. The dis- and 127 mph (204 km/hr), respectively, and, at
crepancies between the results for Pasay City and Tac1oban, 26 mph (42 km/hr) and 120 mph (194
Manila may be due to the different elevations of the km/hr), respectively. In the writer's opinion, the
respective anemometers. It may also be conjectured reliability of the N-year wind estimates obtained at
that the discrepancies between these results and those these stations for N==50, 100 and 1000 is therefore
obtained from the 1902-1940 Manila Central record doubtful. The same comment applies to the estimates
are due to differences in the averaging times and in for Infanta, where the record length is quite insuffi-
the exposure, elevation and calibration of the instru- cient (14 yearsl. The writer therefore believes that the
ments, as well as to possibly inaccurate estimates of results of table 3 should not be used to assess the ade-
the maximum speed in Manila and Pasay City in 1970 quacy of the design wind speed requirement for Zone
(200 km/hr, see table 2). I specified in Reference 15. Rather, it is reasonable to
base such an assessment on a comparison between
The estimated wind speeds at Baguio based upon the wind speeds in Zone I and in areas affected by hur-
1950-73 record are higher than those obtained from ricanes in the United States. In the light of U.S. ex-
the 1914-40 data. No explanation is offered for these perience, it is the opinion of the writer that from such
differences; an investigation into their causes seems a comparison it follows that the 124 mph (200 km/hr)
warranted. wind speed requirement for Zone I and elevations
The record at Calapan illustrates the limitations of the under 30 ft. (9.15 m) is adequate for structural design
approach to the definition of design wind speeds purposes.
based on the statistical analysis of the highest annual
winds. From the data covering the period 1961-72, the
estimated 50-yr wind based on a Type I distribution is
88 mph (141 km/hr) [12], versus 131 mph (209 km/hd,
From the analysis of available extreme speed data in The writer wishes to express his indebtedness and ap-
the Philippines, the following conclusions may be preciation to Dr. Roman L. Kintanar, Mr. Manuel
drawn: Bonjoc, Mr. Bayani S. Lomotan, Mr. Jesus E. Calooy,
1. The design wind speeds specified by the National Mr. Leonicio A. Amadore, Mr. Samuel B. Landet, and
Structural Code of the Philippines for the Zone III Mr. Daniel Dimagiba, of the Philippine Atmospheric,
part of Mindanao appear to be conservative and Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration
might be somewhat reduced. For this conclusion to (PAGASA), for kindly permitting him to use the
be validated, it would be necessary to determine, PAGASA records and facilities and for their effective
from long-term records of tropical cyclone occur- and generous help. He also wishes to thank Dr. R. D.
rences, that the data analyzed herein are represen- Marshall of the Center for Building Technology, In·
tative for southern Mindanao. stitute for Applied Technology, National Bureau of
2. Methodological difficulties and uncertainties with Standards, for useful comments and criticism of this
regard to the reliability of the data preclude, at this work. The computer program used here was
time, the estimation for Zones II and I of N-year ex- developed by Dr. J.J. Filliben, of the Statistical
treme winds that could be used, with a sufficient Engineering Laboratory, National Bureau of Stan-
degree of confidence, as design values within the dards.
. framework of an explicitly probabilistic code.
3. According to the data included herein, Zone II can
be divided into two subzones, with wind load re- (I) Building Code Requirements for Minimum Design
quirements higher in the northern than in the Loads in Buildings and Other Structures,
southern subzone. A58.1-1972 (New York: American National
4. The data included herein suggest that the wind Standards Institute, 1972).
speed requirement specified by the National Struc- (2) Canadian Structural Design Manual (Supplement
tural Code of the Philippines for Zone I is adequate No.4 to the National Building Code of
for purposes of structural design, except as noted Canada)(National Research Council of
below. Canada, 1970).
5. Higher wind speed values than those specified by (3) Court, A., "Wind Extremes as Design Factors,"
the National Structural Code of the Philippines Journal of the Franklin Institute, vol. 256 (July
should be used-except perhaps in the Zone III part 1953), pp. 39-55.
of Mindanao-in open, and in coastal exposure. (4) Csanady, G. T., "On the Resistance Law of a Tur-
6. Improved design criteria for Zones II and I. includ- bulent Ekman Layer," Journal of the At-
ing possible redefinitions of these zones, could in mospheric Sciences, vol. 24 (September 1967),
the future be achieved by applying the pp.467-471.
methodology briefly described at the end of the (5) Davenport, A. G., "The Dependence of Wind
section" Assessment of Procedure Based on the Loads Upon Meteorological Parameters," Pro-
Highest Average Monthly Speed." This would re- ceedings, Vol. 1 (International Research Semi-
quire, in addition to data on the frequency of oc- nar on Wind Effects on Buildings and Struc-
currence of tropical cyclones at various locations in tures) (Toronto: University of Toronto Press,
the Philippines, that the following data be availa- 1968).
ble: (6) Evans, C. J., "Design Valuesof Extreme Winds in
a. Reliable wind speeds, carefully defined with Jamaica" (Paper presented at Caribbean
respect to terrain roughness, averaging time and Regional Conference, Kingston, Jamaica,
distance from shore line. November 6-7,1975).
b. ApprOXimate radial dimensions of tropical (7) Fichtl, G., and McVehil, G., Longitudinal and
cyclones. Lateral Spectra of Turbulence in the A tomospheric
c. Approximate dependence of tropical cyclone Boundary Layer, Technical Note D-5584
speeds upon minimum central pressure and dis- (Washington, D.C.: National Aeronautics and
tance from storm center. Space Administration, 1970).
(8) Goldman, J.L., and Ushijima, T., "Decrease in
Maxinum Hurricane Winds after Landfall,"
Journal of the Structura I Division, vol. 100, no.
STl, proc. paper 10295 (New York: American
Society of Civil Engineers, January 1974), pp.
129-141. .

(9) Harris, R.I., "Measurements of Wind Structure At (22) Simiu, E., and Filliben, J.J., "Probabilistic Models
Heights Up to 585 ft Above Ground Leve\," of Extreme Wind Speeds: Uncertainties and
Proceedings {Symposium on Wind Effects on Limitations," Procl'l'dillgs(Fourth International
Buildings and Structures) (Leicestershire: Conference on Wind Effects on Buildings and
Loughborough University of Technology, Structures)(London,1975).
1968). (23) Simiu, E., and Filliben, J.J., Statistical Analysis of
(10) Helliwell, N.C., "Wind Over London," Proceed- Extreme Winds, Tech. Note 868 (Washington,
ings (Third International Cc-,ference of Wind D.C.: National Bureau of Standards, 1975). SD
Effects on Building and Structures) (Tokyo, Catalog No. C13.46:868
1971) . (24) Simiu, E., and Lozier, D. W., The Buffeting at Tall
(11) Johnson, N.L., and Kotz, 5., Continous Univl,riate Structures by Strong Winds, BSS 74
Distributions, vol. 1 (Wiley, 1970) (Washington, D.C.: National Bureau of Stan-
(12) Kintanar, R. L., "Climatology and Wind-Related dards, 1975). sDCatalog No. 13.29/2:74.
Problems in the Philippines," Development of (25) sugg, A. L., Pardue, L. C., and Carrodus, R. L.,
Improved Design Criteria to Better Resist the Memorable Hurricanes of the United States,
Effects of Extreme Winds for Low-Rise Buildings NOAA Technical Memorandum NWs sR-56
in Developing Countries, BSS 56 (Washington, (Fort Worth: National Weather Service, 1971).
D.<;.: National Bureau of Standards, 1974). SD (26) Tennekes, H.~ and Lumley, J.L., A First Course ill
. Catalog No. C13.29/2:56 Turbulellce(Cambridge: The MIT Press, 1972).
(13) Lieblein, J., Method of Analyzing Extreme Value (27) Thom, H. C. 5.. "Distributions of Extreme Winds
Data, Tech. Nute3053(Washington, D.C.: Na- in the United States," Joumal of the Structural
tional Advisory Committee for Aeronautics, Dillision, vol. 86, no. sT4, proc. paper 2433
1(54). (New York: American Society of Civil
(14) Malkin, W., "Fillirig and Intensity Changes in Engineers, April 1960), pp. 11-24.
Hurricanes Over Land," National Hurricane (28) Thom, H.C.S., "New Dis~ributions of Extreme
Reseszrch Project, vol. 34(1959). Winds in the United States," Journal of the
(15) .National Structural Code of the Philippines, (Sec- Structural Division. vol. 94, no. ST7, proc.
tion 206 in BSS 56: Development of Improved paper 6038 (New York: American Society of
Design Criteria to Better Resist the Effects of Ex- Civil Engineers, July 1968), pp. 1787-1801.
treme Winds for Low-Rise Buildings in Develop- (29) Thorn, RCs., "Toward a Universal Climatologi-
ing Countries) (Washington, D.C.: National cal Extreme Wind Distrihution," ProL·(t'dings,
Bureau of Standards, 1974). SD Catalog No. vol. 1 (International Research Seminal on
CI3.29/2:56 Wind Effects on Buildings and Structurt:s)
(16) Oliver, H. R., "Wind Profiles In and Above a (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1968.1.
Forest Canopy," Quarterly Journal of tile Royal
Meterorological Society, vol. 97 (I971), pp.
(17) Patel, V.c., and Nash, J.F., Numerical Study of the
Hurricane Boundary Layer Mean Wind Profile
(Report prepared for the National Bureitu of
Standards) (Sybucon, Inc., June 1974).
(18) Peterson, E. W., "MCldification of Mean Flow and •
Turbulent Energy by a CharLge in Surface
Roughness Under Conditions of Neutral
Stability," Quarterly Journal of the Royal
Meteorological SoCiety, vol. 95(1969), pp.

(19) Sachs, P., Wind Forces in Engineering (Pergamon
Press, 1972).
(20) Shellard, H.C., "Extreme Wind Speeds in the
Commonwealth Caribbean," Meteorological
Magazine, no. 100(1971), pp. 144-149.
(21) Simiu, E., "Logarithmic Profiles and Design
Wind Speeds," Journal of the Engineering
Mechanics Dillision, vol. 99, no. EMS, proc.
paper 10100 (New York: American Society of
Civil Engineers, October 1973), pp. 1073- 1083.

r I I
1-0 I min. 10 min. - f---I hour-

-.::::::: ~ ~
.......... ~
:::::::::: :---!---
~ ..........
Zo ;r 0.03-0.08 m
r-- r-- r-- Zo ;rO.l5-0.30m

r---- -
Zo;r I.OOm
I 2 4 6 10 20 40 60 100 200 400600 1000 2000 3600
Time, tt seconds



1.50 ,.,....---.--r---...,.-...,.--...,.-...,.----......

lAO t-+--+---+-""':

1.30 H---HC--+-~-+--__+'~-+-a:-liotfE:I

0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

1_ _ _ _ _ _ 1______ 1 ____- ____ 1_________ 1________ 1_________ 1-________ I _ _ _ _ !

95.0000000=MAX- x-
I 1
I x I


I x
x X
x X
1t7.0000000 XX X
111.0000010 XX
35.0000000=MIN- X
1____________ 1___________ 1____________ 1___________ 1 ____________ 1___________ 1__ ··t
.SOO~l81 2.2021567 3.90~1!\~ 5.60111139 7.!061112S
_ _ _ 1_ _ _ 1_______ 1 ______ 1_ _ _- __

_ _ _ _ _ '_ _ _ _ 1_ _ _ _ 1

.- I

I • I

I lC
x X
x X
"'.0000000 X X X
xx XX X'
111.0000010 xxx
I x X X X
35.0000000=MIN- X
1____________ 1___________ 1____________ 1___________ 1____________ 1___________ 1__----.-..__ 1___________ 1
-1.312981t7 -.0"2~107 1.29722311 2.637327.. 3.977113111
ESTltIIlT£O INTERCEPT II •• 033329 = ESTIMATED SLOPE = ,. ""21209
FIGURE lb. TYPE I DISTRIBUTION. Facing Page: This wind tunnel at the University 0; the
Phi11il,ines is used to study wind effects on scale-model
buildings. Shown is a model of the CARE, Inc., test house.
Thl! rows of Mocks on the floor offlle tunnl!l xenerate tur-
bulence or gustiness similar to that observed in full scale.

2.1 IN TRODUCTION ~ ,\ ~ tT tl ~ ~ 1t I ]1 ) III i 1 11 h t ' I ",', h t \',' r '. + !l "1 i 'n I 11 \ ~ \ : , \ t 1

1..11!1lt'll,",ill!l.!nd h,l"\',1 ht'lt..:,f\; '\1 \\ ll.l!il r,I!IIIJ\i \\ 1111l!

1hh p.l~"t'r tit·,l] .... \\ Itll tht' 11.1(111"1' ,1\ \\ ::"j ~j\l\\ .IT' '11J\\1
t' \ \ t't ',.i I !)L:, II ttl I
blllldlllg'" till' prl'~'lIrt" gl'lll'r ,ltl'd ;1\' ',\ 1!lei ,I lId t I it
dt'h.'r!111n.ltHJll lit I\IT·~-t.'''''"h tin..:, ,Hi :'lll!dlll:"': t'!~ :l\1'llt..., ,1-. 2.2 AfRODYN AMICS OF HUILDINCS
\\"1,11,1 .... \111 tflt.'\I\t'r,II! ... trllltl;rt' It :-"',\..., . . il!llt"i til \~
i Ii \' t! (\ '... ',1 t 'I'. ! 11 t i {II \ lllllll JI ! l i I I~ L,"'" t .... ,111 l' \ t rt 'Ill t 1\
l~llljdlnh . . . dt·""I.~Jll·d IIi .Jlltq-lL!!h t' .\ I!!' tllt, rl!,l\, 11:,11
\IUtllfll'd 111 tht' ttd!\I\\'111\:,-.t·\ !ltll1""',I'ld t d 11' .... \j\· 'I,'!

wake. However, it has been established that the pat-

terns of wind flow around bluff bodies such as the
building in figuie4 do not change appreciably with a
change in wind speed.
This allows dimensionless pressure cQefficients (to be
ciiscussed later) determined for one wind speed to be
applied to all wind speeds. In general, the wind
pressure is a Tllaximum near the centerof the wind-
wiud waH and drops off rapidly near the corners.
Pressures on the side or endwalls are also non-
uniform; the most intense suctions occurring just
downstream of the windward corners.

2.2.2 Effect of Roof Slope

The pressures acting on a roof are highly dependent
upon the slope oftI1e roof, generally being positive
. over the windward portion for sloPes greater than 30
degrees. For slopes lessthan 30 degrees, the wind-
ward slope can be subjected to severe suctions which
reach ama"imum at a slope of approximately 10
degrees. Under extreme wind conditions,these suc-
.tiOJ'lS canbe of sufficient intensity to overcome the
de"d we~ghtof thebuilding~ thus requiring a positive
t.iedownor anchor~ge system extending from the roof
.to the foundation to prevent loss of the roof system or
upliftof the entire building.
Intense suctions are likely to occur along the edges of
roofs·and along ridge lines due to separation or
detachment of the flow at these points. For certain
combinations of roof slope and wind direction, a coni-
cal. vortex developed along the windward
edges'of the roof as shown in figure 5. This is a "roil-
ing up" of the flow into a helical pattern with very
high speeds and, consequently, very intense suctions.
If not adequately provided for in the design, these
vortices a long the edges of the roof ca n ca use local
failures ofthe. roofing, often leading to complete loss
of the roof. Areaswhere intense suctions can be ex-
pected are shown in figure~.

In caIculatingthe total uplift load on a roof, the
pressure acting on the underside of roof overhangs
must also be included. These pressures are usually pected life of a building. For example the probability
positive and the resultant force acts in the same direc- that the basic wind speed associated with a 50-year
tion as the uplift force due to suction on the top sur- mean recurrence interval will be exceeded at least
face of the roof. Pressures acting on the inside of the once in 50 years is 0.63. The relationship between risk
buiding (to be discussed later) can also contribute to of occurrence during the expected building life and
the total uplift force and must likewise be accounted the mean recurrence interval is given in table 5. It
for. should be noted that the risk of exceeding the basic
wind speed is, in general, not equal to the risk of

VORTICES PRODUCED 2.3.3 Averaging Time and Peak Wind Speed

WHEN WIND BLOWS It is well known that the longer the time interval over
ON TO A CORNER which the wind speed is averaged, the lower the h1di-
cated peak wind speed wiII be. The calculated design
loads will thus depend upon the averaging time used
to determine the design wind speeds. In this docu-
ment, it has been assumed that all speeds used in
FIGURE S. VORTICES ALONG EDGE OF pressure and load calculations are based upon an
ROOF. averaging time of 2 seconds. Wind speeds for averag-
ing times other than 2 seconds can bt' converted into
2-second average speeds using the procedure
described in section 1.0.


ALLOWED FOR ON THE 2.4.1 Dynamic Pressure
When a fluid such as air is brought to rest by impact-
ing on a body, the kinetic energy of the moving air is
FIGURE 6. AREAS OF INTENSE SUCTIONS. converted to a dynamiC pressure 'I, in accordance
with the formula
q = 1/2 pU ~
Several factors must be considered in selecting a wind
speed on which to base the design loads for a building where q = Nlm 1 , p is the mass density of the air in
or other structure. These include the climatology of kglm 1 and U is the free-stream or undisturbed wind
the geographic area, the general terrain roughness, speed in m/s. The mass density of air varies with tem-
local topographical features, height of the building, perature and barometric pressure, having a value of
expected life of the building and acceptable level of 1.225 kglm 1 at standard atmospheric conditions. In
risk of exceeding the design load. The assessment ol the case of tropical storms, the mass density may be 5
climatological wind data and the procedure for ob- to 10 percent lower. However, this is offset somewhat
taining basic wind speeds are discussed in section I !J. by the effect of heavy rainfall, and the value quoted
The selection of the basic wind speed and the det ..·r- above should be used for all wind pressure calcula-
mination of modifying factors to obtain the design tions, i.e.,
wind speed are discussed in the following sections.
q= 0.613 Ul (2)
2.3.1 Mean Recunence Interval
2.4.2 Mean and Fluctuating Components of
The selection of a mean recurrence interval, with Pressure
which there is associated a certain basic wind speed,
depends upon the intended purpose of a building and As in the case of wind speed, pressures acting on a
the consequences of failure. The mean tecurrence in- building are not steady, but fluctuate in a random
tervals in 'table 4 are recommended for the various manner about some mean value. A typical recording
classes of structures. of wind speed and pressure at a point on the roof of a
house is shown in figure 7.
2.3.2 Risk Factor
A close inspection of figure 7 reveals the following
There is always a certain risk that wind speeds in ex- characteristics:
cess of the basic wind speed will occur during the ex-

(a) The average or mean pressure is negative (suc- pressure, give the wind loads acting in a direction
tion) normal to those surfaces or elements. The total resul-
tant forces and moments acting on a building can then
(b) Pressure fluctuations tl'nd to occur in bursts be determined by considering the appropriate compo-
nents of these loads acting on each of the surfaces or
(d Maximum departures from the mean are in the elements.
negative (suction) direction As discussed in the previous section. the instan-
taneous peak pressure can be expressed in terms of the
(d) The peak values far exceed the mean value mean pressure and a fluctuating component. Since
pressure fluctuations are limited in spatial extent, it is

necessary to consider the size of the building surface
or element when selecting the pressure coefficient.
Pressures on Extended Areas: For the purpose of
determining wind loads acting on sizeable surface
o .+.• ~~ •••• 29 r'- . .~~_~~-·lQ-r-+~ • .• _. ~ areas such as the walls and roof of a building, the
pressute coefficients listed in "tables 6 and 7 should be
200 _ _
used. These coefficients have been determined experi-
o mentally from measurements taken on full-scale
-100 buildings and from wind-tunnel tests and they repre-
-200 sent an upper limit of conditions likely to occur on the
indicated building surfaces.
Pressures on Localized Areas: It is to be expected that
the smaller the area considered, the larger the effec-
tive peak pressure will be. In addition, there are cer-
To quantify these pressures, it is essential that a suffi- tain surface 'areas where intense suctions occur as
ciently long time interval be used to obtain a stable pointed out in sections 2.2.1 and 2.2.2. To provide for
mean. p. The fluctuations an' described by their stan- these cases, pressure coefficients for localized areas
dard deviation or root-mean-square. Prms' taken are included in tables 6 and 7. These coefficients are
about the mean. Finally. the peak pressure f1uchla- for the purpose of assessing wind loads on local clad-
tions arl' dl'scribed by a peak factor. g. which indi- ding and roofing elements and should not be used to
cates the numbt.'r of standard deviations that the peak calculate overall loads on buildings. They should be
prl'SSllfl' dl'viatl's from thl' ml'an. Thus, the peak used in conjunction with the internal pressure coeffi-
PTl'S.<;Ufl.' can be expressed as cients (where appropriate) as described in the follow-
"max =p + g I'rms or "min = p-g Prrns (3) Internal Pressures: As indicated in section 2.2.3 the
net load or force acting on the roof or walls of a build-
It should bt.' noted that thl' peak factor, g, is a random ing depends not only on the external surface
variable and has a prob,'biIity distribution function pressures, but on the internal pressure as well. The
that depends on thl' !1;eometry of the building and tur- magnitude of the internal pressure depends upon the
bulent structurl' of the wind. The values of g are building geometry, size and location of openings, and
selected so that thl' associated probabilities of being wind speed and direction. As with external pressures,
l'xceeded are in line with the expected building life. it is convenient to express internal pressures in terms
of the dynamic pressure and a pressure coefficient
2.4.3 Pressure Coefficients
Cpi' These coefficients can be positive or negative as
It is convenient to express pressures acting on the sur- indicated in table 8. The net pressure acting on a
faces of a building in terms of the dynamic pressure as building element is the algebraic sum of the external
follows and internal pressures

p=cpll (4)

where Cp is a pressure coefficient whose value de- Thus a positive internal pressure will increase the
pends upon the geometry of the building and local loading on those areas of roofs and walls subjected to
flow conditions. Pressure coefficients are specified for external suction.
particular surfaces or elements of a building and,
when multiplied by the surface area and dynamic
2.4.4 Correction Factor for Height of Building from table 4
2. Check the associated factor of risk in table 5 and
The pressure coefficil'nts described above are based on select a longer mean recurrence interval if ap-
building heights of 33 ft 00 m) and peak wind speeds propriate.
at 33 ft (10 m) above ground, averaged over 2seconds. 3. Determine the basic wind speed for this mean
Overall loads calculated for buildings appreciabl y less recurrence interval and the appropriate terrain
than 33 ft (10 m) in height (measured to eaves or roughness and type of exposure as outlined in sec-
parapet) will thus be overestimated if these coeffi- tion 1.
cients are used without modification. On the other 4. Convert the resulting basic wind speed to a 2-se-
hand, tributary areas such as doors, windows, cIad- cond mean speed using the procedure described in
ding and roofing elements will respond to pressure section 1.
fluctuations with duration times considerably less 5. Calculate the dynamic pressure q using the ex-
than 2 seconds. To account for this, the pressures must pression
be multiplied by the correction factors, R, in table 9.
Thus the expression for the net pressure acting on a '1=0.613 U 2
buiiding surface becomes
6. Select the appropriate pressure coefficients from
1'= q(CpR -C,I;R;) (6) tables 6,7 and 8.
7 Select the appropriate correction factors from ta-
and the force acting normal to a surface of area A i~ ble9.
8. Calculate the pressures from the expressions

p= qCpR
where Rand R; are correction factors for external and
internal pressures, respectively. or
p = q(CpR - Cp;R;)
WIND FORCES 9. Multiply these pressures by the respective surface
The procedure for calculating wind forces on a build- areas to obtain the wind forces.
ing is summarized in the following steps. 10. Sum appropriate components of these forces to
obtain net uplift and drag loads.
1. Select the appropriate mean recurrence interval

o 10 20 30 40 SO 60 70 80 90 100 110
I" " ' " " !. . " ' , , , ,r " ' " , ," I " " , , " ,r , .., ! , " ,r , ,!1 ! • , 'I !. " " , , , ,I , " ,r " , , /, , , .r " , ,I, .r , " 1 , ! I, " , I , " , I

o 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
VELOCITY V 1""111,,1"''''11.1'''''11''''11.1,,1.1',,11,,,.1'11,1111.1.,,,,,,"1II!,I,!"!,!!,!!",!.,!,!,, !,I,!,,!,!,.!, !"I!I"!.".!.,,.1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Ibf/ft 2
, , , , , , ,,,,
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
' , , J I
/ ' , JI , , ,
I ! I ! !


I ,
0 600 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Ih I
I ' I II I I I I I I I I I I
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 120 140 160 180 200


Acknowledgment is made to the Building Research
Establishment (UK) for the illustrations used in this
document. The writer also wishes to acknowledge
useful comments and suggestions provided by mem-
bers of the Philippine Advisory Committee and by
Dr. Emil Simiu of the Center for Building Technology.


Class of structure Mean recurrence interval years
All structures other than those set out below. 50

Structures which have special post-disaster functions, e.g. hospitals, rommunicationsbuild-

ing,;, etc. HIO

Structures presenting a lo~ degree o( hazard to life and other property in the case of
failure. 20


Desired Risk of exceeding in N years the wind speed corresponding
Lifetime to the indicated mean recurrence interval
Years 0.632 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10
Mean Recurrence Interval in Years

10 10 15 20 29 45 95
20 20 29 39 56 90 190
50 50 72 98 140 224 475
100 100 144 196 280 448 949
Note: From this table it will be seen that there isa IO'}/ risk that the wind speed corresponding toa mean recurrence interval of 475
years will be exceeded in a lifetime of 50 years.

C p for Face Local
Building Building Wind Angle
Height/Width Length/width u Cp
Ratio Ratio tDegrees, A B C D

II lUI -U5 -lI.n -lI.n

I <ltw<1.5 -1.2
9\1 -O.n -lI.n lUI -lI5
0 O.K -lI5 -O.H -O.K
15<ltw<4 -I.J
- 90 -0.4 -11.4 II.K -0.4

II lI.K -05 -lI.7 -lI.7

I <1iw<15 -1.4
90 -0.7 -lI.7 lI.H -lI.5
- 0 lI.K -O.n -Ii 9 -0.9
I5<1iw<4 -1.4
- 911 -0.4 -lI.4 lI.H -0.3

11 lI.K -05 -O.K -O.K

I <1iw<1.5
91l -lUI -O.H II.K -115

0 II.M -O.n -0.9 -0.9
15<1iw<4 -1.5
- 90 -0.4 -0.4 lI.H -11.3
Notes: (t)h isthe height to eaves or parapet, I is the greater plan dimension of the building and w is the lesser plan dimension.
(2) Local C p valuesOast column) should be used in conjunction with correction factors for overall areas in Table 9 .

LESSER OF h OR 0.2 w ~

1~ h


. ~

8 D

~w~ ~w~

BuDding WinclAngle Area Roof Slope IJ
Height/Width a Designation De, rees
Ratio (Degrees) 0 10 2if 25

EF -1.0 -1.0 -0.4 -03

GH -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6
0 J -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 -1.6
K -1.4 -1.4 -2.0 -1.6
EG -1.2 -1.1 -1.0 -0.8
FH -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5
90 J -2.0 -1.8 -1.tI -1.6
K -1.4 -1.4 -2.0 -1.6

EF -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.4

GH -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8
0 J -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8
K -1.4 -1.4 -2.0 -1.6
O.5ShJw S4
EG -1.2 -1.1 -1.0 -0.8
FH -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4
90 J -1.~ -1.8 -1.6 -1.6
K -1.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6

Notes: (I) The pressure coefficient on the underside of roof overhangs should be taken as that on the adjoining wall surface.
tv Local Cp values (J and K) should be used in conjunction with correction factors for overall areas in table 9.


~ F
H K ~ b ~

f - - -f----+-----t
b = lesser of h or 0.15 w

.... ----"~~I W
... w ----.:>-:..11
Extended areas
1 ~~-
.... W
Local areas


Condition Internal pressure coefficient Cpi

· Two opposite walls equally permeable. other walls imper·

(a) Wind normal to permeable wall +0.3
(b) Wind normal to impermeable wall -0.3

· Four walls equally permeable -0.3 or +0.2 whichever is the more severe for
combined loadings

· Dominant opening on one wall. other walls of equal per-

(a) Dominant opening on windward wall. having a ratio
of permeability of windward wall to total permeability of
otht!r walls and roofs subject to external suction. equal
to-- +0.5
2 +0.6

h or more
(b) Dominant opening .10 leeward wall
value of e'l for leeward external wall surface
value of e for side external wall surface
(e) Dominant opening on side wall
(d) Dominant opening in a roof segment value of C: for external surface of roof segment
Notes: (I) Internal pressures developed within an enclosed structure may be positive or negative depending on the position and
size of the openings.
(2) In the context of table 8 the permeability of a surface is measured by the total area of openings in the surface under con-
(3) The value of ~'J;can be limited or controlled to advantage by deliberate distribution of permeability in the wall or roof.
or by the deliberate provision of a venting device which can serve as a dominant opening at a position having a suitable
exter'nal pressure coefficient.An example of such is a ridge ventilator on a low-pitch roof. and this. under all directions
of wind. can reduce the uplift force on the roof.


Tenain Structural System Area h<5
- -
5 < h < 10

Overall 0.85 1.00

Elements 1.00 1.20
Zo < 0.12 m
Internal Pressure 0.85 1.00
Overall 0.75 1.00
Elements 0.90 1.20
Zo > 0.12 m
Overall 0.75 1.00
Elements 0.95 1.25
Internal Pressure 0.75 1.00

Notes: (l)The term "Overall" refers to the entire area of a given wall or roof slope.
(2) The term "Elements" refers to roof and cladding elements. doors. windows. etc.
(3) The terrain roughness parameter Z. must be estimated subjectively. The following values are suggested for various
types of exposure.
Coastal 0.005·0.01
Open country 0.02·0.12
Outskirts of towns. suburbs o.l3.;:}.'30'
Centers of towns 0.40

For wall A,
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE p= (544) 10.8-(-0.3)](0.85)
= 509N/m 2
A housing development is to be located in flat, open
country on the outskirts of Zamboanga, Philippines, For wall C,
and will ultimately consist of several hundred single-
family dwellings of quite similar geomei:ry. The p= (544) i -0.6-(0.2) J(O.85)
period of construction is anticipated to be from 10 to = -370 N/m2
15 years. The basic plan dimensions are 6.2 x 7.5 m
and the height to the eaves is 2.7 m. The gable roof has For cladding elements, the worst cases are
an overhang of 0.7 m on all sides and a slope of 10
degrees .. Openings for doors and windows are evenly p= (544) [0.8 - (-0.3) (0.85)]
distributed on the exterior walls. = 574 N/m 2

BecaU!ie the development is to be built over a period of

several years, it would not be appropriate to assume a and
built-up area 1n selecting the basic wind speed and
flat, open country will be assumed here. p = (544) [-0.6 - (0.2) (0.85)]
= -419 N/m2
From table 4, a mean recurrence interval of 50 years
is selected and it is considered that the associated risk
For local pressures acting on strips of width 0.2 w =
of exceeding the basic wind speed (0.632) in table 5 is
1.2 m at each corner,
From section 1, the I-minute average wind speed p = (544) (-1.2 - 0.2) (0.85)
(N=50) for Zamboanga is 88 km/hr (Type I distribu- =-647 N/m2
tion). Since this is based on data obtained in open
country at 10 m above ground, this speed can be con- ROOF
verted directly to the design speed. Also, from,sec-
Inspection of table 7 reveals that the greatest upl ift
tion 1 the ratio of the I-minute speed to the 2-second
pressures on extended an'as occur when the wind is
peak speed is 0.82. Thus the design speed is
blowing along the ridge.
U = 88/0.82 = 107.3 km/hr = 29.8 m/s For sections E and G,

The dynamic presure is calculated from equation 2 of p = (544) [-1.1 - (O.2)J (0.85)
section 2.4.1 = -601 N/m2

q = 0.613U2 = (0.613) (29.8)2 = 544 N/m2 For sections F and H,

Wind pressures are next calculated using equations p = (544) 1-0.6 - (0.2)] (0.85)
4-6 and the coefficients presented in table 6-9. Note = -370 N/m2
Pressures acting on roofing elements in sections E and
h/w = 2.7/6.2 = 0.44 G ar.e ot;tained as follows:
l/w = 7.5/6.2 = 1.21 p = (544) [(-1.1)( 1.05) - (0.2)(0.85)]
= -727 N/m2
Inspection of tables 6 and 8 reveals that the worst and for sections F and H,
cases are walls A and C with the wind blowing nor-
mal to the ridge. For wall A, Cl! = 0.8 and for wall C, p = (544) [(-0.6)(1.05) - (0.2)(0.85)]
Cp = -0.6. The local Cp is -1.2. The internal pressure = -438 N/m2
coefficients can range 0.2 to -0.3. Table 9 indi-
cates that the reduction factor is 0.6.5 for walls and in- Localized pressures act on ".trips of width 0.15 w =
ternal pressures and 1.00 for cladding elements, doors, 0.93 m as shown in table 7. The worst case occurs for
windows, etc. area J with the wind bicwmg normal to thE' ridge.
Note that the uplift pressure under the eaves must
also be included.

p =(544) L-1.9 - (0.8)] (0.85) COMMENT
=-1.2k N/ml
The loads calculated above are the loads that can
For area K in section F. this negative pressure or suc- reasonably be expected to occur under the conditions
tion is slightly less stated in the example. They should be considered as
the minimum suitable loads for use with stresses and
p = (544) [-1.4 - (0.8)] (0.85) load factors appropriate for the type of structural
= -l.Ok N/ml material used.

Along the ridge (area K). the localized pressure is For geographical areas exhibiting large variations in
annual extreme wind speeds. the basic wind speed
p = (544) [-1.4 - (0.2)] (0.85) should be selected. with caution. The application of
=-740N/m2 probabilistic models of extreme wind speeds and
some of their limitations are discussed in section 1.0.
The total uplift force on the building is calculated for
the wind blowing normal to the ridge as follows:
Area of one roofslope = [7.5 + (2)(0.7)] [6.2/ (2Cos 10°)
= 34.2m2
Note that areas E. F. G and H include areas J and K
when calculating overall loads.
Uplift =(544) (t.0 + 0.6) (34.2) (Cos 100 ) (0.85)
+ (544)(6.2)(7.5) (0.2)(0.85)
= 29.2kN


The total drag force (neglecting the roof) is calculated
as the sum of the loads on the windward and leeward
Drag =(544)(2.7)(7.5) [0.8 - (-0.5)] (0.85)
= 12.2kN

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