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Chapter 6

GOALS

Define the terms probability distribution and

random variable.

Distinguish between discrete and continuous

probability distributions.

Calculate the mean, variance, and standard

deviation of a discrete probability distribution.

Describe the characteristics of and compute

probabilities using the binomial probability

distribution.

Describe the characteristics of and compute

probabilities using the hypergeometric probability

distribution.

Describe the characteristics of and compute

probabilities using the Poisson

2

What is a Probability Distribution?

Experiment: Toss a

coin three times.

Observe the number of

heads. The possible

results are: zero

heads, one head, two

heads, and three

heads.

What is the probability

distribution for the

number of heads?

3

Probability Distribution of Number of

Heads Observed in 3 Tosses of a Coin

4

Characteristics of a Probability

Distribution

5

Random Variables

resulting from an experiment that, by

chance, can assume different values.

6

Types of Random Variables

assume only certain clearly

separated values. It is usually the

result of counting something

assume an infinite number of values

within a given range. It is usually

the result of some type of

measurement

7

Discrete Random Variables - Examples

The number of children in a family.

The number of cars entering a carwash in

a hour.

Number of home mortgages approved by

Coastal Federal Bank last week.

8

Continuous Random Variables -

Examples

The time it takes an executive to drive

to work.

The length of an afternoon nap.

The length of time of a particular

phone call.

Typically, monetary amounts

9

Features of a Discrete Distribution

probability distribution are:

The sum of the probabilities of the

various outcomes is 1.00.

The probability of a particular

outcome is between 0 and 1.00.

The outcomes are mutually

exclusive.

10

The Mean of a Probability Distribution

MEAN

•The mean is a typical value used to represent the

central location of a probability distribution.

•The mean of a probability distribution is also

referred to as its expected value.

11

The Variance, and Standard

Deviation of a Probability Distribution

• The computational steps are:

1. Subtract the mean from each value, and square this difference.

2. Multiply each squared difference by its probability.

3. Sum the resulting products to arrive at the variance.

The standard deviation is found by taking the positive square root

of the variance.

12

Mean, Variance, and Standard

Deviation of a Probability Distribution - Example

Ford. John usually sells the largest

number of cars on Saturday. He has

developed the following probability

distribution for the number of cars he

expects to sell on a particular

Saturday.

13

Mean of a Probability Distribution - Example

14

Variance and Standard

Deviation of a Probability Distribution - Example

15

Binomial Probability Distribution

There are only two possible outcomes on

a particular trial of an experiment. (Yes or

No, Success or Failure, etc.)

The outcomes are mutually exclusive,

The random variable is the sum of a given

outcome over the trials

Each trial is independent of any other

trial

Probability of outcome does not vary from

trial to trial

16

Binomial Probability Formula

17

Binomial Probability - Example

There are five flights

daily from Pittsburgh

via US Airways into

the Bradford,

Pennsylvania,

Regional Airport.

Suppose the

probability that any

flight arrives late is

.20.

What is the probability

that none of the

flights are late today?

18

Binomial Dist. – Mean and Variance

19

Binomial Dist. – Mean and Variance:

Example

regarding the

number of late

flights, recall that

π =.20 and n = 5.

What is the average

number of late

flights?

What is the variance

of the number of

late flights?

20

Binomial Dist. – Mean and Variance:

Another Solution

21

Binomial Distribution - Table

Five percent of the worm gears produced by an

automatic, high-speed Carter-Bell milling machine

are defective. What is the probability that out of

six gears selected at random none will be

defective? Exactly one? Exactly two? Exactly

three? Exactly four? Exactly five? Exactly six out

of six?

22

Binomial – Shapes for Varying π

(n constant)

23

Binomial – Shapes for Varying n

(π constant)

24

Cumulative Binomial Probability

Distributions

Department of Transportation concluded that

76.2 percent of front seat occupants used

seat belts. A sample of 12 vehicles is

selected. What is the probability the front

seat occupants in at least 7 of the 12

vehicles are wearing seat belts?

25

Binomial Probabilities from Excel

Use function

BINOMDIST(S,N,Prob,Logical)

S is the number of successes

N is the number of trials

Prob is the probability of success

Logical =1 indicates cumulative

probability and Logical = 0 indicates

probability of exactly S successes in

N trials.

26

Cumulative Binomial Probability

Distributions - Excel

27

Finite Population

consisting of a fixed number of

known individuals, objects, or

measurements. Examples

include:

The number of students in this class.

The number of cars in the parking lot.

The number of homes built in Blackmoor

28

Hypergeometric Distribution

The hypergeometric distribution has the

following characteristics:

There are only 2 possible outcomes.

same on each trial. (Sampling without

replacement)

It results from a count of the number of

successes in a fixed number of trials.

29

Hypergeometric Distribution

find the probability of a specified

number of successes or failures if:

the sample is selected from a finite

population without replacement

the size of the sample n is greater than

5% of the size of the population N (i.e.

n/N ≥ .05)

30

Hypergeometric Distribution

31

Hypergeometric Distribution - Example

employs 50 people in the

Assembly Department.

Forty of the employees

belong to a union and ten

do not. Five employees

are selected at random to

form a committee to

meet with management

regarding shift starting

times. What is the

probability that four of

the five selected for the

committee belong to a

union?

32

Hypergeometric Distribution - Example

33

Hypergeometric Distribution - Excel

34

Hypergeometric Probabilities-Excel

Use function

HYPERGEOMDIST(x,n,S,N)

x is the number of successes

n is sample size or number of trials

S is the number of successes in the

population

N is the size of the population.

35

Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson probability distribution

describes the number of times some

event occurs during a specified interval.

The interval may be time, distance,

area, or volume.

Assumptions of the Poisson Distribution

(1) The probability is proportional to the length of

the interval.

(2) The intervals are independent.

36

Poisson Probability Distribution

described mathematically using

the formula:

37

Poisson Probability Distribution

can be determined in binomial

situations by nπ, where n is the

number of trials and π the

probability of a success.

The variance of the Poisson

distribution is also equal to n π.

38

Poisson Probability Distribution -

Example

Suppose a random sample of 1,000 flights shows

a total of 300 bags were lost. Thus, the arithmetic

mean number of lost bags per flight is 0.3

(300/1,000). If the number of lost bags per flight

follows a Poisson distribution with u = 0.3, find

the probability of not losing any bags.

39

Poisson Probability Distribution - Table

Assume baggage is rarely lost by Northwest Airlines. Suppose a

random sample of 1,000 flights shows a total of 300 bags were

lost. Thus, the arithmetic mean number of lost bags per flight is

0.3 (300/1,000). If the number of lost bags per flight follows a

Poisson distribution with mean = 0.3, find the probability of not

losing any bags

40

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