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Evolution: What Are the

Odds?
(Most of the information for this page was taken from Dr. Bert Thompson's The Scientific
Case for Creation, Apologetics Press Inc., 1999)

What Were the Odds For Evolution?

Borel's law of probability states that if the odds of an event happening are worse than 1 in
1*10^50, then that event will NEVER HAPPEN.

Dr. Harold Morowitz, former professor of biophysics at Yale University, estimated that
the probability of the chance formation of the smallest, simplest form of living organism
known is 1 out of 10^340,000,000. One out of ten to the 340 millionth power is
unimaginable odds. This large figure is a "1" followed by 340,000,000 zeroes. As you can
see, Morowitz' odds against even the simplest life evolving were infinitely more than
1*10^50, making them impossible.

The very popular evolutionist, Dr. Carl Sagan of Cornell University, figured even steeper
odds against the simplest life beginning naturally on a planet such as earth. According to
Sagan, the probability would be about 1 out of 10^2,000,000,000. Try to imagine ten to
the 2 billionth power. Pretty astounding odds. Interestingly, these impossible odds against
evolution came from one of the most prominent evolutionists of our time.

According to evolutionists, we just got lucky. However, the odds against this luck have
been shown above. Borel's law of probability should have been enough to refute
evolution completely, but I know that the evolutionary "intellectuals" need more
convincing data.

How Many Events Have Ever Occurred?

Here is a good mental workout: Let us attempt to figure the total amount of things that
have taken place in the universe. Even evolutionists will agree that only a certain amount
of events have taken place in this universe. If this total number of possible events is even
barely close to the number of chances needed for the first step in evolution to take place,
then we will agree that life did evolve from non-life. Here we go.

How Big Is the Universe?

We are attempting to determine how many events have ever taken place in the universe.
To do so, we must first determine the size of the universe so that we can pack it with
event-accomplishing particles.

So how big is the universe? Scientists have estimated it to be about 5,000,000,000 light
years across. To give the evolutionists a little help, let's assume that it is a million times
wider, taller, and deeper. The new diameter would be 5*10^15, or 5 quatrillion light
years. This will make our experimental universe 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 bigger than
the real universe. Many events can occur in such a big place.

diameter.

How Small Is a Proton?

Now that we have thought big, lets think small. The effective diameter of a proton is
about 2.4*10^-15 meters, or 2.4 femtometers. To help understand this tiny size, one inch
is equal to about 10 trillion protons lined side to side.

Remember, we are trying to figure how many events could ever happen. We need to
know how many particles exist so they could do stuff through the ages. That's what we're
calculating.

We should use particles a good bit smaller than protons, so that the evolutionists will
have enough particles to do lots and lots of events. By volume, the real universe contains
billions and billions of times more space than particles. Since we are attempting to
determine how many events have ever occurred in the universe, let us give the
evolutionists the benefit of the doubt by completely filling our experimental universe
with particles. This will give them billions of times more events to produce life.

Protons are way too big. We are figuring the total amount of events that have ever taken
place, and more particles can do more events. We should give the evolutionists lots and
lots of particles so that life has a better chance of evolving. Therefore, we will be using
particles having a diameter 1 trillion times smaller than protons. This will allow us to
pack our experimental universe with (1 trillion)^3, or
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, more particles than would be
possible with "large" protons.

How Many Particles Could Fit In Our Universe?

First, let us determine how many of our extra-small particles could be lined across the
diameter of our extra-large universe.
• 3*10^28 miles = 5*10^31 meters = 1.2*10^47 proton diameters = 1.2*10^59
extra-small particle diameters.

Therefore, 1.2*10^59 of the "smaller than possible" particles lined side to side would
stretch across the "larger than possible" universe. This should provide plenty of particles
to interact and make life from non-life.

So, How Many Particles?

Evolutionists believe that the Big Bang blew everything from a central point in the
beginning. Therefore, this universe should be spherical. We will now figure the volume of
our universe and pack it with particles.

• Universe Diameter = 3*10^28 miles = 1.2*10^59 "small-particle" diameters

• Universe Volume = (4/3)*(PI)*[(Diameter)^3]*(1/8)
• Universe Volume = (4/3)*(PI)*[(1.2*10^59 "small-particle diameters)^3]*(1/8)
• Universe Volume = 8*10^177 particles.

As mentioned before, our real universe is full of empty space, but this theoretical
universe is packed full of "smaller than possible" particles. This increase in the number of
particles has helped the terrible odds against evolution. The total amount of particles
possible is 8*10^177. Remember that we generously allowed for a universe 1 million
times wider than reality, and we used particles 1 trillion times smaller than protons.

How Quickly Could Each Particle Make Life?

Okay, now we have the number of particles available for life-making. How much can
each particle do in a second? Since we don't know, let's be generous to our evolutionary
friends. Let's assume that each of the 8*10^177 particles can participate in one trillion
trillion trillion events at one time. This factor would be 1*10^36 events per second.

How Much Time To Produce Life?

Now that we know the amount of particles and the work-rate of each, let's determine the
amount of time that they have to perform their life-producing tasks. I think that the
current estimated life expectancy of the universe is about 30 billion years. This could be a
little small or large; I'm not sure (I believe that the universe is only a couple of thousand
years old). Anyhow, to give the evolutionists a little more time than they really have, let's
multiply their time by 1 billion. This would give the universe 30 quatrillion years to
produce life.

Finally, How Many Events Could Ever Occur?

The universe, crammed with 8*10^177 particles working at 1*10^36 events per second
for 1*10^27 seconds, could only make:

Only 8*10^240 events could ever happen!

Dr. Morowitz postulated that life could evolve from non-life every 1 out of
1*10^340,000,000 events. The great Dr. Sagan calculated 1 out of every
1*10^2,000,000,000 events. However, only 8*10^240 events could ever be possible, in
the entire universe, with all of the time possible.

According to Morowitz, we would need 1*10^340,000,000 events to produce life.

Unfortunately, we would need 10^339,999,759 TIMES AS MANY EVENTS to have
1*10^340,000,000 events. Compared to Sagan's predictions, we would need
10^1,999,999,759 TIMES AS MANY events to achieve the odds necessary for life.

The total number of events ever possible was only 8*10^240. This was only 10% of
8*10^241, or 1% of 8*10^242, or 0.1% of 8*10^243. You can see that 8*10^240 was not
enough events by any means to reach the number of events needed for the evolution of
life. And we're talking about the most primitive, simple kind of life forming. These odds
are impossible.

It is hard to argue with basic probability. Simple mathematics has helped us to realize that
life could never evolve from non-life.