The Story Behind Your Canceled Flight – WSJ

The flights airlines are likeliest to spike first and

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Many travelers think flights get canceled to save money, but often that’s not true. The
WSJ’s Scott McCartney discusses the costs of cancellations. Photo: Getty

March 11, 2015 1:02 p.m. ET

Flight cancellations have piled up deeper than snow drifts this winter. The slippery
slope for airlines is picking which flights to cancel. Certain factors make some flights
more prone to cancellation than others, from the route and type of airplane to who
the other passengers are and how much the cancellation will cost the airline.

If you’re on a regional jet, you’re almost three times as likely to be canceled as if

you’re on a larger plane flown by the main airline, says Joshua Marks, chief executive
of masFlight, a company that processes all kinds of data for airlines. And 69% of
regional-jet cancellations are from weather or air-traffic congestion problems. Most
widebody cancellations result from airline problems such as mechanical breakdowns
or crew shortages. The carriers want to keep those big planes moving.

Even when flights have to be canceled because of their own breakdowns, airlines have
a lot of latitude. Aircraft swaps happen every day—a plane intended for another trip is
used instead for the trip with the mechanical breakdown because it’s a higher priority.

Sometimes who’s on the plane with you is what matters most. If the trip has a lot of
high-fare business passengers or VIPs, and no spare airplanes are available, airlines
sometimes cancel a lighter-booked flight or one with lots of low-fare leisure
passengers. Then they use the healthy airplane for the higher-revenue flight.

That sometimes leaves passengers with the impression that their flight got canceled
just because it was lightly booked. Airline operations executives say they do look for
lightly booked trips to cancel so they inconvenience fewer people. And leisure
passengers are more likely to stick to the trip and take another flight rather than
demand a refund, Mr. Marks says.

“They don’t cancel [simply] because there are not enough people on the plane. That’s
just too disruptive to their schedules,” he says.

Airlines lose $5,770 for an average cancellation, according to a review of data on the
costs of cancellations by masFlight. Scrubbing a 50-passenger regional jet flight costs
as little as $1,050, but dropping a round-trip journey across the Atlantic can cost as
much as $42,890.

“There are a lot of hard costs that go with canceling a flight,” Mr. Marks says.
“Airlines aren’t saving as much as people think by grounding the flight.”
There’s a big difference in what a canceled flights costs, depending on why it got
canceled. Last year, 29% of all cancellations counted by masFlight were because of an
airline problem. With those, the average cost to cancel was $2,750 for regional jets,
$15,650 for a typical domestic narrow-body trip and $42,890 for a long-haul
widebody.

But for uncontrollable events, like big weather disruptions, the average cost was only
$1,050 for regional jets, $4,930 for typical domestic trips and $13,140 for long
international journeys.

The primary difference stems from what airlines owe stranded passengers. Delays
caused by airlines require them to pay for hotel rooms for customers, and they are on
the hook for refunds if passengers can’t get to where they are going quickly.

In situations like this winter’s unrelenting snow, airlines frequently have to thin out
schedules. Sometimes that’s because of orders from air-traffic controllers. They may
also be short on crews and ground workers and concerned about leaving crowds of
people stranded in airports or on planes. In those situations, airlines get to pick which
flights to fly, and they first cancel lots of small-airplane flights and use precious
landing slots and gates for bigger planes.

Officials at three major airlines say the masFlight numbers were in the ballpark with
their costs. Airlines don’t report detailed numbers on cancellation costs and declined
to comment specifically. But officials say the masFlight cost calculations, if anything,
were a little conservative in some areas.

The carriers say their costs to cancel flights in big storms are a bit higher than
masFlight estimated because they issue more refunds and credits for future flights,
plus buy tickets on other airlines for their customers.

Airlines do save a big chunk of the cost of a flight when they don’t burn the fuel from
a trip, and don’t have to pay airport landing fees for a canceled flight.

But after those benefits, costs start piling up. At many airlines, crews get paid for the
canceled trip if they can’t be rescheduled to work on other flights. Ground workers get
paid whether the plane takes off or not, and leaving airplanes parked means parking
fees paid to airports. A plane requires some regular maintenance whether it flies or
not. And food that has been ordered—as much as $12,670 for widebody international
trips with carts full of business-class meals—may go to waste, masFlight notes.

Refunding is the big factor. Mr. Marks says his research with airlines showed that
30% of business travelers get refunds, but only 20% of leisure passengers.

What to do if you’re on a canceled flight?

• Get rebooked ASAP. Empty seats typically go to high-status frequent fliers and high-
fare passengers first, with priority for families with children at some airlines, too.
After that, it’s first come, first served. If you used a traditional travel agency, the agent
may be able to rebook you quickly. Otherwise, try online and, last resort, stand in line
while you are on hold waiting for telephone help.

• Know the cause. Even if there’s bad weather, if your flight fell victim to a crew
shortage or mechanical problem, the airline should pay for accommodations.

• If you’re 200 miles or less from a big hub and your small-jet connecting trip gets
canceled, you may be able to drive. Work it out with the airline first so your entire
itinerary isn’t canceled. Consider driving a rental car one-way.

• Be prepared to find your own hotel. Sometimes airlines have rooms reserved, even if
you have to pay, but you may be better off calling nearby hotels yourself or booking
online.

• Know when to fold ‘em. Sometimes you just can’t fight Mother Nature. Your best
decision may be to scrap the trip rather than getting stranded at an airport.

For the study, masFlight interviewed airlines and reviewed labor contracts. It based
its estimates on jet fuel costs of $3 per gallon. The cost has since dropped to around
$2 a gallon. Cancellations actually get more expensive for airlines when fuel gets
cheaper—they save less by not flying. Today’s fuel prices add about $600 in losses on
a canceled regional jet flight and as much as another $20,000 on a widebody trip, Mr.
Marks says.

The capacity to rebook passengers varies seasonally. In winter, when travel is down
and flights aren’t as full, there are more empty seats for stranded travelers. When
thunderstorms force cancellations in the busy summer season, “there isn’t the
capacity to wick up a number of passengers,” Mr. Marks says.

When airlines take all their empty seats and use them for rebooking, they give up the
chance to get last-minute, full-fare passengers. That’s one reason airlines have
recently been so intent on reducing cancellations of their own making.

The masFlight figures are in line with the scant details airlines have disclosed over the
years of the cost or benefits of canceling flights. After last winter’s polar vortex,
American, for example, told Wall Street analysts that it had losses of $60 million on
34,000 weather cancellations in the first quarter of 2014, or $1,765 per trip. Most of
those were regional jet flights.

Write to Scott McCartney at middleseat@wsj.com