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Survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters

Alabama - Statewide
Conducted March 6 - 8, 2020
n=645 | ± 3.86%
1. How likely are you to vote in the March 31st Republican primary runoff elections for U.S.
Senate?

Freq. %
Definitely voting 604 93.6%
Probably voting 30 4.7%
Probably not voting 11 1.7%
Total 645 100.0%

2. Did you vote in the recent March 3rd Republican primary election for President, U.S. Senate,
and local offices?

Freq. %
Yes, I voted GOP on March 3rd 576 89.3%
No, I did NOT vote on March 3rd 69 10.7%
Unsure 0 0.0%
Total 645 100.0%

3 - 5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:

Fav Very Fav Unfav Very Unfav No opinion NHO NET Fav
55.7% 24.8% 38.3% 16.2% 5.6% 0.4%
Jeff Sessions 17.4%
359 160 247 104 36 2
62.6% 31.3% 26.1% 11.0% 9.9% 1.4%
Tommy Tuberville 36.4%
403 202 168 71 64 9
44.8% 18.3% 31.1% 10.9% 19.7% 4.5%
Bradley Byrne 13.7%
289 118 200 71 127 29

6. In the March 3rd Republican primary election for United States Senate, who did you vote for?

Freq. %
Tommy Tuberville 213 33.0%
Jeff Sessions 197 30.5%
Bradley Byrne 135 20.9%
Roy Moore 22 3.4%
Arnold Mooney 7 1.1%
Stanley Adair 6 0.9%
Ruth Page Nelson 4 0.6%
I did not vote on March 3rd 62 9.6%
Total 645 100.0%

7. If the March 31st Republican primary runoff election for United States Senate were held
today, and you had to make a choice, who would you vote for?

Freq. %
Jeff Sessions 255 39.5%
Definitely Jeff Sessions 153 23.8%
Probably Jeff Sessions 101 15.7%

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Tommy Tuberville 332 51.5%
Probably Tommy Tuberville 114 17.7%
Definitely Tommy Tuberville 218 33.8%

Undecided 58 9.0%
Total 645 100.0%

8. Do you agree or disagree President Donald Trump is opposed to Jeff Sessions in the U.S.
Senate race?

Freq. %
Agree 290 45.0%
Strongly agree 169 26.2%
Somewhat agree 121 18.7%

Neither agree nor disagree 206 31.9%

Disagree 100 15.5%


Somewhat disagree 47 7.3%
Strongly disagree 53 8.3%

Undecided 49 7.6%
Total 645 100.0%

9. Are you male or female?

Freq. %
Female 329 51.1%
Male 316 48.9%
Total 645 100.0%

10. What age range do you fall within??

Freq. %
Under 55 212 32.9%
18 - 39 79 12.3%
40 - 54 133 20.6%

55 and over 433 67.1%


55 - 69 227 35.2%
70 or older 206 32.0%
Total 645 100.0%

11. And thinking about your views toward politics and government, would you say you are…

Freq. %
Conservative 552 85.6%
Very conservative 384 59.6%
Somewhat conservative 168 26.1%

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Moderate 60 9.4%

Liberal 21 3.2%
Somewhat liberal 8 1.2%
Very liberal 13 2.1%

Unsure 11 1.7%
Total 645 100.0%

12. Do you consider the area where you live to be more rural, suburban, or urban?

Freq. %
Rural 280 43.3%
Suburban 293 45.4%
Urban 73 11.3%
Total 645 100.0%

13. What annual income range do you fall within out of the following options?

Freq. %
Less than $50,000 173 26.8%
$50,000 - $100,000 280 43.4%
More than $100,000 192 29.8%
Total 645 100.0%

14. Primary Runoff Propensity

Freq. %
High 359 55.6%
Medium 163 25.3%
Low 123 19.1%
Total 645 100.0%

15. Media Market

Freq. %
HSV 135 21.0%
Huntsville 135 21.0%

BHM 269 41.8%


Birmingham 265 41.1%
Atlanta 3 0.5%
Columbus MS 1 0.1%

MGM 147 22.8%


Montgomery 94 14.6%
Dothan 45 7.0%
Columbus GA 7 1.2%

MOB 93 14.5%
Mobile 93 14.5%
Total 645 100.0%

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16. Congressional District

Freq. %
1 92 14.3%
2 115 17.8%
3 77 12.0%
4 117 18.1%
5 117 18.2%
6 109 16.9%
7 17 2.7%
Total 645 100.0%

17. Gender + Age

Freq. %
F 18 - 39 29 4.5%
F 40 - 54 55 8.5%
F 55 - 69 138 21.3%
F 70+ 108 16.8%
M 18 - 39 50 7.8%
M 40 - 54 78 12.1%
M 55 - 69 89 13.9%
M 70+ 98 15.2%
Total 645 100.0%

18. Generation
Freq. %
GenZ 9 1.4%
Millennials 64 9.9%
GenX 139 21.6%
Boomers 288 44.6%
Traditionalists 145 22.5%
Total 645 100.0%

19. Ethnicity
Freq. %
White 596 92.4%
Black 10 1.5%
Hispanic/Latino 4 0.6%
Other 4 0.7%
Unknown 31 4.8%
Total 645 100.0%

20. Education

Freq. %
Bachelor's degree or higher 242 37.6%
Some college 94 14.6%
High school or less 183 28.3%
Unknown 126 19.5%
Total 645 100.0%

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21. Gender + Education

Freq. %
Female College degree 115 17.9%
Female No degree 151 23.4%
Female Unknown 63 9.8%
Male College degree 127 19.7%
Male No degree 126 19.5%
Male Unknown 63 9.8%
Total 645 100.0%

METHODOLOGY
This probabilistic survey was conducted March 6 - 8, 2020, with 645 likely GOP primary election voters. It has
a margin of error of ±3.86%. Known registered voters were interviewed via IVR, SMS, and email invitation.
This survey was weighted to likely GOP primary election voter universe.

ABOUT THE FIRM


Cygnal is a national public opinion and market research firm that specializes in data-driven approaches to
decision making. Cygnal was recently named the #1 private pollster and the #2 pollster overall by Nate Silver’s
FiveThirtyEight, as well as the #1 most accurate polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by The New
York Times. Its team members have worked on more than 1,000 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns
and worked in nearly every state.

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