SUBJECT

Research methodology

TOPIC
Hypothesis

CLASS
S.Y.BMS – B

GROUP NO: 4

Submitted to: Prof. Shirley Pillai

ST. ANDREW’S COLLEGE

St. Dominic Road, Bandra (W), Mumbai
400050
 DECLARATION

We the students of St .Andrew’s College of S.Y.BMS-B

hereby declare that we have completed the topic on
“Hypothesis” for the subject “Research Methodology”
for the academic year 2009-2010. Information
submitted is true and original to the best of our
knowledge.

GROUP MEMBERS
NAME ROLL NO. SIGNATURE
Gladisa D’mello 3309

Zubin Mistry 3129

Tivola Pereira 3338

Priya Quadras 3340

Relessa Rodricks 3344

Azim Siddqui 3347

Mohd. Ausif War 3352

Fatima Ansari 3357

2
 CERTIFICATE
I hereby certify
that the following students of St. Andrew’s College of
S.Y.BMS-B have completed the topic on “Hypothesis”
for the subject “Research Methodology” in the
academic year 2009-2010. The information is true and
original to the best of my knowledge.

GROUP MEMBERS
NAME ROLL NO. SIGNATURE
Gladisa D’mello 3309
Zubin Mistry 3129
Tivola Pereira 3338
Priya Quadras 3340
Relessa Rodricks 3344
Azim Siddqui 3347
Mohd. Ausif War 3352
Fatima Ansari 3357

3
 Index

Sr. No Topic: HYPOTHESIS Page No

1 Introduction 5

2 Definition & Meaning 5-6

3 Importance of Hypothesis 7

4 Types of Hypothesis 8-9

5 Formulation of Hypothesis 10-12

6 Testing of Hypothesis 13-14

7 Co-relative Coefficient 15-16

8 Chi-Square Test 17

9 Regression Analysis 18-19

10 Bibliography 20

HYPOTHESIS

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Introduction:
When a researcher observes known facts and
takes up a problem for analysis, he first has to start
somewhere and this point of start is the
“hypothesis”. In other words, one has to proceed to
formulate tentative solutions as soon as the problem
to be tackled is finalized. These proposed solutions or
explanations constitute the hypothesis which the
researcher proceeds to test on the basis of facts
already known or that can be made known. Even,
collection of facts merely for the sake of collecting
them will yield no fruits; to be fruitful, facts need to
be collected such that they are for or against some
point of view or proposition. Such a point of view or
proposition is the “hypothesis”. The tentative
explanations or solutions are suggested to us by
some thing in the subject-matter and by our previous
experience.

Definition & Meaning:

In the words of George A. Lundberg “A
hypothesis is a tentative generalization, the validity
of which remains to be tested. In its most elementary
stage the hypothesis may be very hunch, guess,
imaginative data, which becomes the basis for action
or investigation.”
Similarly, according to Webster, “A hypothesis is
a proposition, condition or principle which is
assumed, perhaps without belief, in order to draw out
its logical consequences and by this method to test
its accord with facts which are known or may be
determined.”
Goode and Hatt have defined it as “a proposition
which can be put to test to determine validity.”

5
 Rummel and Balline say “A hypothesis is a
statement capable of being tested and thereby
verified or rejected.”

It is clear now that a hypothesis is a provisional

formulation or possible solution or tentative
explanation or suggestive answers to the problem
facing the scientist. A hypothesis, therefore, is
essentially tentative, likely to be modified during the
investigation if the facts discovered in the course of
the enquiry demand it. It is an explanation that needs
to be established before it can be accepted.
If the hypothesis is proved the problem of which
it was a tentative solution is answered. If it is not
proved, alternative hypothesis or situations would
need to be formulated and tested. A hypothesis thus
stands somewhere at the midpoint of research; from
here one can look back to the problem and also look
forward to data.

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Importance of Hypothesis:
1. A well-formulated hypothesis provides an
essential basis for a researcher to begin his
inquisitive enquiry without wastage of much time and
energy.

2. If a researcher is lost in a dark forest of

confusion, it is the hypothesis that provides him the
beacon light and shows him the direction to the path
along which he has to proceed for carrying out his
investigation. Scientific questions are always guided
by the directional force of an appropriate hypothesis,
for providing the right answers.

3. Hypothesis is very much helpful in enabling

the researcher to know exactly as to what type of
information would be most suitable for tackling the
problem which he is facing. By collecting the essential
facts and figures and using the right methodology,
the researcher would be able to draw reliable
conclusions.

4. A non-hypothesized research would be an

aimless search of every thing about anything
necessary and unnecessary, relevant and irrelevant.
Hence, the importance of hypothesis in establishing
the relevance of research.

5. As the modern age is characterized by

efficiency and good speed through the appropriate
use of relevant technology, no researcher should take
the risk of wasting a lot of precious time neglecting
the guidance provided by a well framed hypothesis.

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Types of Hypothesis:
Depending upon the nature of the hypothesis,
classification is carried out as follows:-
a) Working hypothesis

b) Research hypothesis

c) Scientific hypothesis

d) Statistical hypothesis consisting of Null

hypothesis and Alternate hypothesis.

EXPLANATIONS:-
a) Working hypothesis: When a researcher assumes
temporarily certain facts in the course of his
preliminary study of a problem, then he may
make a tentative proposition that is not final.
Such a course of action makes him frame a
working hypothesis.
b) Research hypothesis: It arises out of the
finalization of a working hypothesis.

c) Scientific hypothesis: When a hypothesis is

frame on the basis of available, adequate data,
for the purpose of empirical verification and
systematic justification then it becomes a
scientific hypothesis.

d) Statisticalhypothesis: These are propositions

that express quantitative relationships. A

8
statistical hypothesis comprises of null
hypothesis and alternate hypothesis. When the
researcher is interested in finding the existence
or non- existence of a quantitative relationships
then he proceeds in an unbiased manner by
assuming the non- existence of relationship.
Such an assumption is called “null hypothesis”.
If he supposes the contrary, that is, the
existence of a relationship, then his hypothesis
would be “Alternative hypothesis”. If null
hypothesis is accepted as true on the basis of
empirical verification, then the alternate
hypothesis is rejected and vice-versa. It is the
null hypothesis that is always tested.

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 Formulation of Hypothesis:
From the literature it is concluded that a
hypothesis is a tentative statement that implies a
proposed answer to a problem, setting accountability
and responsibility of effective research procedure as
high priority (De Wet, Monteith, Steyn & Venter
1981:76).

It should, however, be emphasized that in no way

a hypothesis statement can claim to be the only
solution to the problem. It serves only as a point of
departure - the chain between the theory and the
research that leads to the broadening of knowledge
(Smit 1983:19).

Hypotheses are thus tentative statements that

should either be acknowledged or rejected by means
of research.

Because hypotheses give structure and direction

to research, the following aspects should be kept in
mind when formulating a hypothesis:-

1. Hypotheses can only be formulated after

the researcher has gained enough
knowledge regarding the nature, extent
and intensity of the problem.

2. Hypotheses should figure throughout the

research process in order to give structure
to the research.

3. Hypotheses are tentative

statements/solutions or explanations of
the formulated problem. Care should be

10
 taken not to over-simplify and generalize
the formulation of hypotheses.

4. The research problem does not have to

consist of one hypothesis only. The type of
problem area investigated, the extent
which encircles the research field are the
determinating factors on how many
hypotheses will be included in the
research proposal.

5. A research hypothesis is usually stated in

an explanatory form, because it indicates
the expected reference of the difference
between two variables. In other words it
verifies the reference that the researcher
expects by means of incorporating
selected research procedures.

6. The research hypothesis may be stated in

a directional or non-directional form.
According to Landman (1988:86) and De
Wet et al, (1981:80) a directional
hypothesis statement indicates the
expected direction of results, while a non
directional one indicates no difference or
no relationship.

Criteria for the formulation of a hypothesis:

In order to assist you in formulating a research
hypothesis, you should ascertain the criteria used in
formulating hypotheses.

According to Srnit (1983: 20-21) the following

criteria are of importance in formulating hypotheses.
A hypothesis should:-

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a. stand a test;
b. be expressed in clear language;
c. be in accordance with the general
theme of other hypotheses statements
in the same field of study, and should be
regarded as valid;
d. be co-coordinated with the theory
of science;
e. be a tentative answer to the
formulated problem;
f. be logical and simplistic;
g. consider available research
techniques (to be able to analyze and
interpret the results);
h. be specific; and
i. be relevant to the collection of
empirical phenomenon’s and not merely
conclude value judgments.

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Testing of Hypothesis:
Hypothesis testing determines the validity of the
assumption (technically described as null hypothesis)
with a view to choose between two conflicting
hypotheses about the value of a population
parameter. Hypothesis testing helps to decide on the
basis of a sample data, whether a hypothesis about
the population is true or false. Statisticians have
developed several tests of hypotheses (also known as
the tests of significance) for the purpose of testing of
hypotheses which can be classified as: (a) Parametric
tests or standard tests of hypotheses; and (b) Non-
parametric tests or distribution-free test of
hypotheses.

Parametric tests usually assume certain

properties of the parent population from which we
draw samples. Assumptions like observations come
from a normal population, sample size is large,
assumptions about the population parameters like
mean, variance, etc; must hold good before
parametric tests can be used. But there are situations
when the researcher cannot or does not want to make
such assumptions. In such situations we use
statistical methods for testing hypotheses which are
called non-parametric tests because such tests do not
depend on any assumptions about the parameters of
the parent population. Besides, most non-parametric
tests assume only nominal or ordinal data, whereas
parametric tests require measurement equivalent to
at least an interval scale. As a result, non-parametric
tests need more observations than parametric tests
to achieve the same size of Type I and Type II errors.

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 The important parametric tests are: - (1) z-test;
(2) t-test; (3) x2 test, and (4) F-test. All these tests
are based on the assumption of normality i.e., the
source of data is considered to be normally
distributed. In some cases the population may not be
normally distributed, yet the tests will be applicable
on account of the fact that we mostly deal with
samples and the sampling distributions closely
approach normal distributions.

Non-parametric tests do not make an assumption

about the parameters of the population and thus do
not make use of the parameters of the distribution.
The following distribution-free tests are important
and generally used:-

1. Test of a hypothesis concerning some single

value for the given data (such as one-sample sign
test).

2. Test of a hypothesis concerning no difference

among two or more sets of data (such as two-
sample sign test, Fisher-Irwin test, Rank Sum
test, etc.).

3. Test of a hypothesis of a relationship between

variables (such as Rank correlation, Kendall’s
coefficient of concordance and other tests for
dependence).

4. Test of a hypothesis concerning variation in the

given data i.e., test analogous to ANOVA viz.,
Kruskal-Wallis test.

5. Tests of randomness of a sample based on the

theory of runs viz., one sample runs test.

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 6. Test of hypothesis to determine if categorical
data shows dependency or if two classifications
are independent viz., the chi-square test.

Correlation:
Concept of Correlation:

Sometimes two statistical series vary in tandem:

a variation in one series is accompanied by a variation
in other. In such a case we can study closely the
relationship between the two related series. The
question is: if a change in one series is followed by a
change in the other, what is the magnitude of change
in a relative sense? In short, the numerical
relationship between two series is called
“correlation”.

The purpose of this topic is to study the method

of looking at such a relationship between two series
and also to explain the significance of the numerical
relationship. The important set of figures- that is, the
first set – is called the subject and the second set is
called the relative. In other words, the set we use as
the standard for comparison is called the subject.

The following are some of the related variables;

height and weight, demand and price, income and
expenditure. Correlation is direct or positive if two

15
variables change in the same direction; it is inverse or
negative if the variables change in opposite
directions.

Coefficient Of Correlation:

The extent of correlation between two variables

that are related can be determined by a coefficient.
Karl Pearson devised a formula for this coefficient,
which is as follows:
∑xy
r=
nσ1σ2
Where,
r = the coefficient of correlation
n= the number of pair of items
x = deviation of the first series
(subject)
y = deviation of the second series
(relative)
σ 1 = S.D. of the first series
σ 2 = S.D. of the second series
Remark:
I. If r = +1, correlation is a perfect positive.

II. If r = - 1, correlation is a perfect negative.

III. If r = 0, there is no correlation.

IV. If r is equal to some number between 0 & +1

then correlation is limited and positive.

V. If r is equal to some negative number

between -1 & 0 then correlation is negative
and limited.

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Chi-Square Test:
The chi-square test is an important test amongst
the several tests of significance developed by
statisticians. Chi-square, symbolically written as x2
(Pronounced as Ki-square), is a statistical measure
used in the context of sampling analysis for
comparing a variance to a theoretical variance. As a
non-parametric test, it can be used to determine if
categorical data shows dependency or the two
classifications are independent. It can also be used to
make comparisons between theoretical populations
and actual data when categories are used. Thus, the
chi-square test is applicable in large number of
problems. The test is, in fact, a technique through the
use of which it is possible for all researchers to (i)

17
test the goodness of fit; (ii) test the significance of
association between two attributes, and (iii) test the
homogeneity or the significance of population
variance.

Conditions for the Application of Chi-Square

test:
The following conditions should be satisfied
before x2 test can be applied:-

1. Observations recorded and used are collected on

a random basis.

2. All the items in the sample must be independent.

3. No group should contain very few items, say less

than 10.

4. The overall number of items must also be

reasonably large. It should normally be at least
50, howsoever small the number of groups may
be.

5. The constraints must be linear.

Regression:
The term 'regression' was used by Sir Francis
Galton to describe a hereditary phenomenon that he
observed in his study of the heights of sons and
fathers. His main observation was that rough tall
fathers usually had tall sons; the average height of
the sons of tall fathers was less than the average
height of the fathers. In short, the average height of
the sons of tall fathers will regress or go back in the
general average height. Galton called his backward or

18
downward tendency in the average height has
regression. At present the term regression is used
widely to describe many other phenomena whether
economic, business, or social. A line that is drawn as
close as possible to the plotted points of the scatter
diagram shows the average tendency of the plotted
points. This line is known as the regression line and
its equation is called the regression equation.
Unlike the coefficient of correlation, which
indicated the extent of the relationship between two
sets of figures, a regression equation enables us to
calculate the amount of change in one variable
corresponding to the change in the other.

Regression equation of Y on X:

The regression equation that enables us to find

out the amount of change in Y corresponding to a
change in X is called the regression equation of Y on
X. If this regression equation is represented by
Y=a'+b'X, then the constants a' and b' are determined
from the two normal equations:
{Y = Na' + b” {X
{XY = a'{X + b'{x2

Regression Equation of X on Y:

The regression equation that enables to find out

the amount of change in X corresponding to a change
in Y is called the regression equation of X on Y. The
regression equation is represented by X =a'+b'Y,
where the constant a' and b' are determined from two
normal equations:
{X =Na' + b'{Y
{XY =a'{Y + b'{y2

Conclusion:

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 From the graph of the two regression lines the
following conclusions can be drawn:-
1. The two regression line intersect at the point
x, y, where x = arithmetic mean of the items in
X series, y=arithmetic mean of the items in Y
series.
2. If the two regression lines are close to each
other then the correlation between X series
and Y series is very high.
3. If the two regression lines coincide then
there is perfect correlation.
4. If the two regression lines are at a distance
from each other then the degree of correlation
between X series and Y series is less.
5. If the two regression lines intersect at right
angles then there is no correlation between X
series and Y series.

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Bibliography:
1.Research Methodology - for Management and
Social Sciences by Aditham Bhujanga Rao.

2.Research Methodology - Methods and Techniques

by C.R. Kothari.

3. Research Methodology – by P. Saravanavel.

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