Building Decarbonization Coalition Presents:

How SMUD Re-Engineered Itself to Focus On

Decarbonization Through Flexibility and Electrification

Scott Blunk SMUD

Matt Golden Recurve
Adam Scheer Recurve

March 19, 2020

Utility Carbon Goals Cover 68% of All Customers.
35% are Zero by 2050 or sooner!

2
SMUD first in
US to change
metric to
“avoided
carbon”
more here
3
About SMUD
We’re Community-Owned and Not-For-Profit

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SMUD’s path to a carbon metric

1) Decision to claim electrification savings as EE on a carbon basis

2) 2018 IRP set a net zero carbon goal

3) EE program metrics and goals now set in terms of Carbon

• First in the country to have carbon as a EE program metric
1) Claim kWh savings through gas reduction

• Use a carbon
equivalence to convert
therms to kWh
Buil

Ve
ding
elec
trific
• 24 kWh per therm
h atio
icl n
ee
lec
tri
– Specific to SMUD
fic
ati
on
– Increases as RPS
increases

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2) SMUD’s net zero carbon plan

• Buildings are 1/3 of

Carbon emissions (tonnes)

the carbon
SMUD
• Electrify 80% of all
’s car
Buil

Ve
ding
elec
bon e

trific
missi
ons buildings
hic atio
n
le
ele
– 17% Today

T
ctr

to NE
ific

zero
ati
on
• IRP predates SB100

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3) Expanded the definition of EE

Energy Efficiency

Electrical Natural Gas

Efficiency Efficiency
Electrification
Efficiency

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Carbon content of electricity is temporal
• Our carbon metric is:
• Long-run marginal Weekday Summer Hourly Marginal Carbon Intensity
• Specific to SMUD’s grid
• Carbon only (not GHG)

• It is now about when

energy is use / saved
• Some hours are clean(er)
than other hours

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SMUD’s planned carbon reduction in buildings
2020 Electrification:
• 26% of the carbon
• 37% of the budget

2030 Electrification:
• 91% of the carbon
• 97% of the budget
Electrification Efficiency
2040 Electrification:
• 99% of the carbon
• 45% of the budget

1st Year Program Savings

of 1% of Retail Sales

Electrical Efficiency

10 If you don’t measure it you can’t manage it

 A newly planted tree absorbs
Carbon savings (lifetime) 2.6 tonnes in 40 years

11 Carbon calculation using long-run marginal lifetime

Building electrification on the grid
• Off peak
Peak Electrification Impacts
– Most electrification is not at
system peak

kW Customer Demand
• Grid utilization
– Electrification improves
utilization of the grid by 5%

• On peak
– Furnace electrification
yields a more efficient AC
thus reducing summer peak

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 We would like to wish
Margaret Sheridan a
happy retirement.

Your contributions will be

missed.
 We would like to wish
Margaret Sheridan a
happy retirement.

Your contributions will be

missed.
 We would like to wish
Margaret Sheridan a
happy retirement.

Your contributions will be

missed.
 We would like to wish
Margaret Sheridan a
happy retirement.

Your contributions will be

missed.
 We would like to wish
Margaret Sheridan a
happy retirement.

Your contributions will be

missed.
Decarbonization
Is Time and
Location
Dependent 2030

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Decarbonization
Is Time and
Location
Dependent 2020 2030

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California’s Grid: More Solar Than We Can Use

March 23, 2019 1:15 pm: Negative Pricing Everywhere

CA 2019: 965 GWh Renewables Curtailment

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Recurve Makes
Markets for
Demand Flexibility Demand Solar
Flexibility Power

● Load Shifting
(e.g., Storage, DR)

● Load Shaping
(e.g., EE, Solar)

● Load Balancing Transportation

Electrification Grid Storage
(e.g., EVs, Heat Pumps)

Wind Grid
Energy Optimization

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 How can we increase demand and scale up?

How I improve cost effectiveness of my portfolio?

What are the grid impacts of my programs?

How can I align programs with GHG reduction?

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Heat Pump
Heat Pump Beneficial Electrification of HVAC
● 713 Heat Pump HVAC installations (Elec-to-Elec)
Electrification
Electrification
Beneficial Electrification of HVAC
Requires
● Single a Systems Approach
family homes
Requires a Systems Approach:
● Hourly CalTRACK calculations on all meters
● 713 Heat Pump HVAC Measure thecomparison
time and locational
● Gas estimated using group comprised of %
installations (Elec-to-Elec)
1. heatingimpact
Measure of and
threshold
the electrification
stratified sampling on
time and locational impact of
● Single family homes non-temperature dependent load
electrification on demand
● Hourly CalTRACK Calculate GHGs and Avoided Cost due
calculations on all meters to electrification
2. Calculate the impact of increased electric
● Comparison group:
load on GHGs and Avoided Cost
○ % Heating threshold Calculate reduction of natural gas
○ Stratified sampling on
3. Calculate reduction
or delivered ofGHGs
fuels on Gas GHGs
non-temperature
dependent load
4. Net out the impact across GHGs and grid
Net out the impact across GHGs
Avoided Cost
and grid Avoided Cost
Heat Pump Load Impact

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Winter Heat Pump Load Impact

Increased
Winter
Demand

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Summer Heat Pump Load Impact

Decreased
Summer
Demand
(Dependant pre-AC levels)

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Heat Pump Electrification: Electric GHG Impact

2020: 0.46 Tons

2025: 0.44 Tons

2030: 0.21 Tons

2035: -0.06 Tons

2040: -0.10 Tons

Heat Pump Electrification: Lessons Learned

● Electrification is a key GHG strategy, but not a silver bullet.

● Integrated approach needed for full decarbonization

○ Avoided cost of efficiency + heat pump includes winter
solar and storage

● Align goals and strategy with GHGs, and make sure you
calculate them correctly!

● Target high potential customers.

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The Elephant (DUCK) in the Room
To achieve electrification goals, we need to massively
increase the scale and efficacy of our efforts.

The Problem
● Average customer benefits are low leading to low
demand, requiring large incentives
● Average deemed cost effectiveness of EE and
Electrification is low, and therefore requires large
investments to hit goals.
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Get More Bang For The Buck
Move to metered savings and get credit for actual results.

The Solution
● Identify in advance highest potential customers who will
benefit the most and are most likely to say “yes.”
● Get greater GHG impact by focusing on highest potential
customers first -- get more from current budgets or hit
our carbon goals with fewer incentive dollars.

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Residential HPP: Targeting High Potential

2x
Savings

3x
Peak

Deeper
Savings
 HPP: Utility Avoided Costs

General Population: $2,300 / Customer

(Lifecycle Avoided Cost)

Using CPUC 2019 Avoided Cost Calculator (2020, CZ 12)

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 HPP: Utility Avoided Costs

General Population: $2,300 / Customer

(Lifecycle Avoided Cost)

Targeted Population: $5,300 / Customer

(Lifecycle Avoided Cost)

Using CPUC 2019 Avoided Cost Calculator (2020, CZ 12)

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CES: Finding the Resource
Selecting Customers Based on Evening Ramp (Bottom 60% vs. Top 40%)

40% of
Customers

60% of Customers

Load Shape Resource Curve

CES: Finding the Resource
Selecting Customers Based on Evening Ramp (Bottom 60% vs. Top 40%)

2x
Peak
Savings

Load Shape Resource Curve

 Procurement

Pay for Demand

Performance Flexibility

Resource
Curve

Metered
Flexiwatt

Scott Blunk - scott.blunk@smud.com Matt Golden - matt@recurve.com Adam Scheer - adam@recurve.com

Technical Appendix
Electric Heat Pump Upgrades: Results

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Targeting High Potential Electric - Electric Heat Pumps

Savings
2.27
MWh

Savings
0.54
MWh

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Comparison Group Matching

% Heating Threshold and stratified sampling on

non-temperature dependent load
Comparison Group Matching
Heat Pump Load Impact: Full 8760

- Full 8,760 analysis needed for accurate forecasting and marginal

GHG assessment
Grid Planning and Marginal GHGs: 8760 Profile

WINTER: Feb. 6 - 12 SUMMER: July 22 - 28

 HPP Targeting Opportunity

Targeted high users

with strong summer
peaking load shapes

1.5x total and 2.4x

summer peak
savings

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 HPP Targeting Opportunity

Little total and

negative summer
peak savings

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Heat Pump Project Impacts

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Targeted Heat Pump Projects

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