Global Insights Report
from www.mrtopstep.com November 29th, 2010 Today's Points of Interests:
Volume: 7.5k SPZs and 2.78mil ESZs traded S&P futures vs. fair value: -5.50. NASDAQ futures vs. fair value: -13.00. 15 SPZ/H spds traded
“BLACK FRIDAY’s S&P INDEX TRADE”
Friday started with combined GLOBEX volumes of 2k SPZs and 275k ESZ traded and a sharply lower 8:30 opening range of 1186.50 to 1186.80. Just after the opening print the SPZ sold off a little over 1 handle down to 1184.40 then slowly made it way back to a new daily high of 1193.00. The SPZ opened 4 handles above the GLOBEX lows of 1182.50 and with all the selling done pre~open and most people unable to hold the futures over the weekend the SPZ and ESZ did what the does best lately, it went for the buy stops. Its 10:38 CT , we have still 30 locals in the pit, 7.6k S&P options trade - 5.2k calls and 2.5k puts, total SPZ volume is 2k with 510k minis traded. It’s 11:22 and after a few small sell offs the SPZ is back trading at the 1190 level. For the half hour the SPZ traded 1188 to 1190 and got hit by a big sell program going into the 12:00 cash close that sold the SPZ from 1188.50 down 1185.50 in less then 1 minute. The SPZ traded 1188.30 on the 12:00 cash close and at 12:05 the SPZ was traded 1185.50. At 12:09 the SPZ hit out more sell stops down to a new low at 1183.80 and another new low going into the futures close 1183.00 on the last tick of the day. In the end the Dow and S&P lost 1% and 0.9 % accordingly while the NASDAQ gained 0.7 % for the week. European debt concerns and North Korea helped end the week on a sour note. Monday? That was an ugly close last Friday, the VIX settled back above 21. In Asia of 8 of 11 markets closed higher. In Europe 10 out 10 markets are trading lower. Last night the ESZ traded all the way back up to 1193.75 and gave up its gains overnight and made new low at 1179.50. Its 6:30 am and the SPZ is 1182.50 last , down .20 The big question here is what the markets will do going into month end. The way we see this is it’s like a game of cat and mouse. The BULLs only have so many days left in the year to mark things up and the BEARs know time is running short for the BULLs. Our call? Today is CYBER / Mutual Fund Monday and based on Fridays close we think it’s possible to see some early weakness then some type of bounce. Our levels for the day 1173.00 to 1175.00 and above we have 1193 to 1195.00 and then 1199 to 1203.
Distributed by mrtopstep.com. © 2010
we hold a Market Timing Webinar which is open to all.
Distributed by mrtopstep.com. upcoming economic calendar. It depicts S&P-500 Cash Index both in daily and weekly barintervals plus a modified S&P-500 only Proprietary Advance Decline (Breadth) Indicator (SP1) and its fast shorter-term brethren (MoMo). 2010 Twice per month. Here is our SP1_MoMo Chart.com Market Timing Comments as of November 28. Founder HamzeiAnalytics. potential exopgenous pending news. but not limited to. There we discuss what we see as critical technical and quantitative analyses of our equity markets including. Here is a short excerpt on one of the charts discussed in our Sunday November 28th webinar.Contributor’s Corner: Fari Hamzei / Hamzei. © 2010
. big-cap high-beta earnings calendar. indices price levels and quantified sentiment data.
we should expect additional upward moves in equity index volatility which could flush out the weak longs and set us up for an enhanced move up into the much-anticipated year-end tax selling. Fed vice chair Yellen speaks THURSDAY: ECB announcement. which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. St. Philadelphia Fed Pres Plosser speaks.com. consumer confidence. ISM mfg index. productivity and costs. Fed Gov. ADP employment report. In like fashion plus ten (+10) is where often market eases off and reverses to the downside. Duke speaks. New 52wk Lows are picking up a bit. Earnings from Toll Brothers. This is a key line-in-the-sand price for large institutional players. while on DAILY graph (center) we are on a shorter-term SELL signal. What is critical in both of these charts is the New 52-week Highs and Lows. construction spending.On the intermediate timeframe (WEEKLY graph on the left). Louis Fed Pres Bullard speaks. pending home sales. Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing index. Challenger job-cut report. factory orders.
THE WEEK AHEAD: MONDAY: Texas manufacturing outlook survey. Beige Book. Bernanke speaks. Cyber Monday TUESDAY: ISM-NY report on business. S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. ISM non-mfg index
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. On or about negative ten (-10) on MoMo often coincides with short-term reversals to the upside. Obama meets with Congressional leaders WEDNESDAY: Auto sales. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. oil inventories. Also note the 200bar moving average (the thick white line). © 2010
. MBA mortgage applications. Bottom Line: With a backdrop of Irish Debt Crisis and North Korean adventurism. jobless claims. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Distributed by mrtopstep. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions. you can see that we are still on an UP bias. Mr. SP1 is obviously at a critical juncture (it is at -1 sigma) and MoMo suggests we may see a further drop in the S&P-500 Breadth before we resume the upward move. Del Monte and Kroger FRIDAY: Employment situation. TopStep. Minnesota Fed Pres Kocherlakota speaks. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. chain-store sales.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Distributed by mrtopstep.There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. © 2010