Solution-2:

Demographic Transition in India over the period 2030 and 2050 as compared with China
In India, the first stage of demographic transition was seen till 1920, the subsequent stage was
seen from the early 1920s and extended till early 70s. India is undergoing third stage of
demographic transition from 1971. It is estimated that India will enter the fourth stage of
demographic transition by 2026.
Highlights of India’s demographic transition over the period as compared with China:
1) As per Population Reference Bureau (PRB), a Washington-based organisation, India’s
population is expected to reach 1.53 and 1.68 billion by mid-2030 and mid-2050,
China’s is likely to reach 1.42 billion by mid-2030 and then fall to 1.34 billion by mid-
2050.
2) According to estimates, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of India’s
population will go down to 0.46% between 2030 and 2050. China’s population will
have a CAGR of -0.27% during this time.
3) As per PRB, China’s main working age segment (25-64 years) has already peaked in
size by 2017-2018. Since then, the population of children (0-14 years) and young
adults (15-24 years) have been declining. By the year 2050, India’s working age
population will be comparable in size to that of China’s today- over 800 million people
strong.
4) In China, by 2050, over one-third of the country will be 60 years or older. On the other
hand, India is following a more traditional demographic path. Above demographic
transition can easily be witnessed from the below graphs.

Figure: Population by Broad Age Groups- India & China; Pic courtesy: UN Population Prospect 2019

Demographic dividends: Prospects for India

A study on India’s demographic dividend by UNFPA found that the window of demographic
dividend opportunity in India is going to last until 2055, for 37 years. This is longer than any
other country in the world.

Demographic Dividend will create ample of opportunities for India:

 1) India will have the youngest workforce in the world with a median age much lower than
China and other developed countries.
2) The shortage of working population to the tune of 56 million which can be filled by
India.
3) It will lead to greater savings & purchasing power, thereby growth of the economy.

Following steps can be taken to maximise current and future demographic dividends over the
long run:
1) India needs to invest in the human capital and provide opportunities to its rising
working population. This can be done by investing in education, robust health
systems, creating jobs by promoting labour intensive sectors and providing
necessary policy support.
2) Demographic dividend results in economic growth due to increase in labour force,
as more people reach working age. It increases fiscal space to divert resources from
spending on children to investing in physical and human infrastructure. It causes
rise in women’s workforce that results in decline in fertility, and a new source of
growth.
3) It leads to increase in savings rate, as the working age also happens to be the prime
period for saving. An additional boost to savings occurs as the incentive to save for
longer periods of retirement increases with greater longevity.
4) There is a shift towards middle-class society. Education, home ownership and a
desire for more goods are the cause and consequence of young demographics.

COVID-19: Measures to be taken

The corona virus pandemic is causing serious health, social and economic challenges.
Significant demography-related consequences are expected in the longer term, ranging from
the way economies function as well as how the economic burden can be shared across the
population.
Measures which can be ensured at International level and subsequently be enforced at
national level are as follows:
a. International bodies can co-operate in responding to the health challenge by
recapitalising health and epidemiological systems. Impressive co-ordination in the
scientific effort is ongoing but it needs to be complemented by measures to ensure that
vaccines and treatments, after being developed and produced, get to people as quickly as
possible.
b. Lift existing Trade restrictions on much needed medical supplies.
c. They should finance an immediate buffer to economies to cushion the negative impact
and speed up the recovery. They should provide support to vulnerable developing and
low-income countries.
d. Share and implement best practices to support workers and all individuals, employed
and unemployed – particularly the most vulnerable.
e. Internationally co-ordinated swift efforts to provide the necessary resources to deal with
the immediate public health emergency and develop a path towards recovery.