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In Egypt, the inhabited activities centralizing in a limited number of cities which suffering from great growth in its urban plan or its inhabitant size. This occurs as .a result of amassed factors during last year's The most important factors are the continue immigration from the rural area, the permanent increasing of population, and the concentration of most urban activities and public services in the Egyptian important big cities. The regarding of the metropolitans affected the small and medium cities which represent 85% from the .total Egyptian cities On the other hand, the Egyptian metropolitans represent only 15% from the total Egyptian cities. The small and medium cities could be include a big percentage of urban areas citizens and partially participate to release some metropolitan problems
For a long time, The Egyptian Government neglect the establishment of urban and rural regulations "Lower and Upper Egypt" for development and direction the investments to the small and medium Egyptian cities. Our paper will concern especially with Upper Egypt which is gain the most neglecting of Egyptian Government. This leads to deterioration the urban activities and appearance many problems in the fields of urbanization, social, and economical. So, it becomes expulsion of its population. Therefore, many negative appearances reflected on urban growth and all over life activities in Aswan city. During last years, the practical planning solutions to face city problems were temporary solutions .without an extensive planning view The paper aims to show the urban growth problem in small and medium cities in Upper Egypt which suffering from sprawl urban growth. This happened as a result of disregarding these cities during last year's. Therefore, these problems infected city rules such as unbalancing the distribution of city sizes, and expulsion its population. This article paper aims to improving modeling methods and techniques to analyze urban growth as a complex phenomenon. The wide concept of urban development implies changes, growth or decline. The term includes the physical, socioeconomic and environmental dimensions. Physically and functionally, urban development includes both new development and urban redevelopment. In
contrast to decline, growth involves the transition into urban of non-urban activities and spaces. The physical aspects of urban growth are related to land cover, the functional to land use. Then, temporal and spatial urban growth indicates the spatial and temporal dimensions of land cover/land use change at the level of the urban landscape. Urban planning can be utilized for analyzing, evaluating, predicting and simulating urban systems to support decision-making. From the perspective of spatial science, modeling must take both the spatial and temporal dimensions of urban systems into account. Egypt is the one of the fastest rates of urbanization in the world according to our recourses and agriculture land. Egypt population according to CAPMAS census at 2006 was 72.798 million Inhabitants and it was at 1976 - 36.626 million Inhabitants that display the urban population in Egypt over the last three decades have been duplicates. 43.9% of them living urban and all inhabitants populate on 7.83% of Egypt total area (the Total area of Egypt is 1009.45 thousand Km). All population Live on the river valley. Egypt is currently growing at 1.7% per year From previous information we could predicting the Egypt future on 2036 the population will increase 100%. It will be 145.596 Million inhabitants. For this reason that focusing on improving the sustainability of developed Egypt urban growth is so critical. (CAPMAS2006)
.Urban Growth for Upper Egypt
Upper Egypt regions consists of four governorates that are Aswan, Qena, Souhag, Red Sea and one Metropolitan is Luxor ( Becomes governorate on Dec.2009) exported 13% of their combined population to other regions in Egypt (Upper Egypt is 868.139.9 inhabitants) Figure 1 explore the Upper Egypt population from 1960 to . 2006
According to CAPMAS census the growth rate was 2.5 percent in early 1960s but as we see (Figure1) the population growth rate from 1960 to 1966 in Upper Egypt was 1.09 percent which means 1.41 percent of the general rate of Upper Egypt migrate forward the Lower Egypt region searching for social or economic opportunities, in other word the half of the increased population have been migrated because there is no urbanization in their regions could apply the .increasing population In 1976 CAPMAS census the Upper Egypt population was approximately 4.3 million inhabitants which mean 1.34 percent of the growth rate(2.5 percent) was also migrated forward to Lower Egypt, that happened also in 1986 and 1996 census but it becomes more seriously in 2006 census . according to the CAPMAS census the Upper Egypt Population was approximately 10.7 million inhabitants but it decreased to 8.7 million inhabitants in 2006 which mean the Upper Egypt region becomes expelled of its population due neglecting the urbanization of that region. As we see the Upper Egypt growth rate has become negative - 0.8 percent where it was 1.9 percent in all regions of Egypt according to that percentage the Upper Egypt suppose to be 18 million inhabitants and that mean about 10 million .inhabitants are already migrated from Upper Egypt region
If we supposed the growth rate will be stabile the Upper Egypt will be according : the Equation of time-series as shown
Year 1960 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006
y 3.34 3.70 4.30 5.60 10.64 8.68 36.26
x 18.104.22.168.5 1.5 2.5
x2 5311 3 5
x2*y 16.711.10 4.305.60 31.92 43.40 48.82
x2 25 9 1 1 9 25 70
ˆ y = p 0 + p1 x
∑ xy × n = 48 .82 × 6 = 292 .92 = 0.70 420 ∑ x × n 70 × 6
∑ y = 36 .26 = 6.04
ˆ ∴y = 6.04 +0.70 x
ˆ ∴y 2036 = 6.04 + 0.70 ×11 =13.74 Million Inhabit.
Which mean the Upper Egypt migration will be about 30 Million inhabitants in . 2036 so that we must to began to establishing new urban for that amount Figure 2) compared Urban/Rural of upper Egypt population from 1996 to 2006) which showing how the urbanization of upper Egypt was decreased from 1996 to 2006 and that till us how much the government neglect the urbanization of that .region
(CAPMAS 2009) That will leads us to search for Radical solution for Upper Egypt region and how we can improve the sustainability to urban growth. Upper Egypt, communities concentrating in a limited number of Metropolitans which suffering from great growth either in its urban layout or its resident's size. This happened as a result of
several factors during last year's. The most important factors are the continues immigration from the rural area to urban area, and that leads to the permanent increasing of population, and the concentration of most urban activities and public services in the main metropolitans. And could be include a big percentage of urban areas citizens and partially participate to release some metropolitan .problems For a long time, The Egyptian Government neglected the establishment of urban regulations for development and direction the investments to the small and medium Egyptian cities especially in Upper Egypt. This leads to deterioration the urban activities and appearance many of problems in the fields of urbanization, social, and economical. So, these cities became expulsion of its population. Therefore, many negative appearances reflected on Upper Egypt urban growth and all over life activities in these cities. During last years, the practical planning solutions to face Upper Egypt problems were temporary solutions without a .comprehensive planning view Upper Egypt suffering from many urgent problems in many fields; urban, social, and economic. This happened as a result of unscientific and studied decisions .which taken by decisions makers which based on RS and GIS Therefore, these problems affected city rules such as unbalancing the distribution .of city sizes, and expulsion its population There is a study done by Haughton and Hunter (1994) they have calculated that on average each city of one million people consumes 625,000 tones of water, 2000 tons of food and 9500 tons of fuel, and generates 500,000 tons of waste water, 2000 tons of waste solids and 950 tones of air pollutants on a daily basis. While this level of resource consumption is clearly unsustainable, it remains very difficult to devise ways to reduce the levels of resource consumption while .maintaining the high standard of living that people enjoy in developed nations The essay aims to show the most important problems and to limit the available opportunities in small and medium cities in Upper Egypt and try to understanding of the cities existing situation which leads to the ability of progressing and .developing these cities to reach to the sustainability I will suggest a group of policies could be help to improve the urban performance and achieve urban sustainable development for small and medium cities of Upper .Egypt regions
.Sustainability Urban Growth of Upper Egypt
Substantially accelerated consider and discussion on the problems related to meeting the needs of the present without compromising "the ability of future .(generations to meet their own needs'(WCED, 1987 The concept of sustainable development has become increasingly significant as a target for creating a better future for the Upper Egypt, economically, socially and environmentally. Operating in contradiction with efforts to create a more sustainable future are factors such as an ever-increasing population, and more importantly, an almost exponential growth in the use of resources, many of them .(non-renewable (Elkin et. al., 1991 Sustainable development is the challenge of meeting growing human needs for natural resources, industrial products, energy, food, transportation, shelter, and effective waste management while conserving and protecting environmental quality and the natural resource base essential for future life and development. This concept recognizes that meeting long term human needs will be impossible unless we also conserve the earth’s natural physical, chemical, and biological .(systems (Colombo, 2001; Grossmann, 2000 So approaching Sustainability Urban Growth of Upper Egypt a compact policies, planning and decisions by Coordination, collaboration between a teamwork which must be is consisting of Ministry of Housing, Utilities and Urban communities (HUUC), Ministry of Communications, Ministry of Social and Ministry of Transportations. Completion of this plan required a wide logistic mobilization of human resources and .infrastructure which is the main point for a long term vision for all Upper Egypt :The objectives of that teamwork are Present ways to expand and improve infrastructure, facilities and public • .services of Upper Egypt regions and coverage Provide a strategic framework to modify tendencies for identifying • economic activities of population, in order to produce a balanced regional .development Reinforce urban capacities to accommodate a steady increase in the • population A systemic and strategic approach allowed articulation of various elements • .in a hierarchical structured at the same time dynamic and flexible This approach is useful to formulate policies of Upper Egypt regional's development to guide region planning and distribution of population. A policy here means association between the urban locations in their areas, to the framework of the social and economic objectives for its regions. The systemic
approach allowed us to define those areas of the region where development strategies should cover, taking advantage of their roles as its reference, economic .drivers, and service providers for their areas The basic part of the elaboration process of the urban growth included compiling and processing information from all regions, government agencies and governorates departments. This information had to be presented in texts and graphs to support the characterization and the evaluation of the situation and further include programmatic actions from all government agencies in Egypt, so as to provide a framework to coordinate all actions influencing development of all .urban centers in Upper Egypt I mean here by the elaboration is the inventory of urban land for social housing and urban infrastructure of the four governorates of Upper Egypt and Luxor Metropolitan. The inventory is the completed integrating statistical, documentary and cartographic information that will allow optimizing interurban areas and supporting decisions to acquire land for regional reserves through systems and .mechanisms of evaluation The objectives of this land inventory focus on the expanding of the city’s areas as it identifies spaces to move into organizing development using GIS background as the national evaluation system to select areas with best conditions for urban .development and cities which are under current plans The basic part of the elaboration process of the urban development of Upper Egypt included collecting and processing information from the Central Agency for Public Mobilization And Statistics ( CAPMAS) beside the information of the teamwork These information had to be presented in texts and graphs to support the characterization and the situation of current urbanization further include programmatic actions from all government agencies in the Egypt, so as to provide a framework to coordinate all actions which will cause affect on the development :of all urban centers in the Upper Egypt such as .Capacity for implementing infrastructure and public services • .Evaluation the possibility of satisfied demand and future supply • .Land costs • .Identification of empty and underutilized land with urban ability • Identification of the ownership organization (private, common property, • ;(governmental, local authority, national land :In the short term, the inventory and its information systems will allow us to Make consultations on Landscape and land use to reserve that could be used for • housing and urban development, through identification, characterization and
valuation of areas. To make it more valuable for consulting, this system can be .integrated to a national database Identify the current and future demand for housing in the Upper Egypt regional, • based mainly in statistical tendencies on population, population density, internal migration, etc., in order to determine needed areas for the regional according to .its demanded reserves Prioritize land use in those areas included in the existing instruments of urban • .planning that remain without use In the long term, the inventory will provide the Ministry of Housing, Utilities and Urban communities (HUUC), Ministry of Communications, Ministry of Social and Ministry of Transportations Development with a GIS instrument that :manages basic information such as .Urban census cartography • .Land ownership • .Public services coverage • .Programming of urban infrastructure • .Stochastic land occupation • .Value of land • .All this information can be visualized by GIS in three steps
:GIS As a Tool of Sustainability Urban Growth
With the rapidly development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), there is a major opportunity for the authorities to use it to manage the allocation of rare resources in a rapidly changing environment. The quality of urban planning and management can be upgraded when available and valid data .are handled in an advanced behavior with the assistance of computers The recent widespread introduction of Geo-information Technology (GIT) provides an exciting ability for geographic information to be used more .systematically and by greater diversity of discipline than ever before Geographical Information System (GIS) technology is an important tool of the Plan development process. The required information's should be analyzed, visualized and presented to support decision-making. One of the most commonly used methods for land-use decision making is spatial Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). This method combines all the spatial factors that are important, and results in a map with the best locations for a specific type of land.use
For establishing GIS to visualizing the development we have to follow the next :phases • Compiling cartographic and statistical information. Cartographic and statistical data were taken from CAPMAS (Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics) information. This information had been validated in the field and had to be taken from censual information linked to the geo-reference. • Compiling documentary and field information. This was probably the most difficult phase, including compiling complications. Firstly, public agencies responsible for generating information on coverage and programming of services and registration of land tenure were identified. Frequently, urban authorities could not help us identify their own authority. Secondly, with the lists of agencies and offices at hand, we addressed each and every one of them asking for specific information required from them, but giving a whole perspective of the development objective and the mechanisms for information delivery. This had to be supported by meetings and interviews with officers in charge in every city and office in the list. This phase generated information for layers, as well as statistical information on present and future land demand by type of activity; population dynamics (structure, socio-economical, migration and tendencies), services infrastructure and coverage; and capacity to tend demands for land. State delegations for the Utilities and Urban communities (HUUC) were particularly helpful in follow-up and retrofitting of required information. • Analysis and integration. Integration of documentary and field information presented some difficulties, mainly due to delays in delivery; non validated material on service coverage and programming; non existing information and lack of understanding about the means and ways of delivery. The GIS map is consists of 29 Layers “Land suitable For Urban Development” is a combination of all previous layers, plus information for land valuation: present land use; intensity; potential for use in terms of the allowed uses; and accessibility to infrastructure, among others. In some cases, some information did not flow and valuation was correspondingly incomplete.
:Future Perspectives of Utilizing GIS to Sustainable Urban Growth
Development planning requires an efficient planning approach to achieve the desired goals and objectives, evaluate alternative as well as control development .programs that are in line with the current and future perspective GIS technology has long been applied in planning activities which essentially .(include plans formulation as well as development control (Johar et al., 2003 The different spatial level and form of plans requires different support in term of information system. A variety of skills are also required for preparing
development plans using GIS. They include the ability to build up and manage the database which should incorporate socio-economic attributes of the local population. Managing services at local level would also call for proximity analysis. On the other hand, cartographic skills are important if plans are to be demonstrating. It should be noted that successful implementation of GIS for .sustainable urban and regional planning will largely depend on four factors Firstly, the automation of the database, it's costly to collect, store and remove through large quantities of unnecessary data. Therefore, the most cost effective .approach is to collect only the data required for the specific task Secondly, data collected either from existing records, aerial photography or remote sensing imagery will need to be integrated using GIS methods. The GIS .will be organized to facilitate and analysis Thirdly, the ability to perform spatial modeling the optional scenarios can be .generated Fourthly, application of valid criteria to evaluate the effectiveness of possible .planning strategies before the final solution is determined A well-integrated and comprehensive database design, which meets the user requirements, is part of the important elements that could determine the ultimate success of a GIS (Chamber, 1989). The GIS database for development planning :should be designed based on several important considerations which include The GIS application to be developed • The need of data for each application • The availability and format of the existing data • Size or volume of the database • Hardware platform and its configuration • User background • Organization structure of the users and facilities • The database development for strategic development plan basically involved gathering of data, spatial and attribute data entry, and generating of data layers based on the applications for analyses purposes. Paper maps and remotely sensed data including satellite data and high-resolution digital orthophotographs are major sources for collecting digital data. Data gathering was carried out based on the type of data needed and sources of data. Data entry was then done through .(interpretation of the data gathered into the required form (Yaakup et al., 2002a The main objectives of the urban regional development are to stimulate and guide social and economic development, utilizing the various tools open to it. In the past, it has been geared to physical planning. More recently, emphasis has shifted
to social and economic planning. These two sets of objectives of planning .agencies have led to two different views of planning approaches of these agencies Now GIS is the most appropriate solution for supporting the handling of spatial information throughout the development control and approval process. The advent of GIS has created a large field of opportunity for the development of new approaches to computer processing of geographically referenced data obviously .needed in supporting decision-making process Some of the important functions include the ability to retrieve information rapidly and efficiently, model different scenarios and evaluate alternative solutions generated by various modeling procedures. Hence, a more effective solution to various spatial-related problems including those associated with planning and .development matters can be achieved
There are a limited number of successive decision had been taken for Upper Egypt Urbanization and that cause sprawl urbanization across all Upper Egypt regions, which lead us to an urgent need for a comprehensive GIS-based .collaborative decision support model Geographic information technologies possess the potential to provide powerful support to sustainable urbanizing of Upper Egypt by allowing decision making with information. A virtual decision making environment is created when based on GIS, is integrated with other technologies such as mathematical models, expert systems, virtual reality, to broadcast information for better public participation. Such an environment can make complex information more easily understandable to nonspecialist people. GIS-based decision making environments can mould today’s society by providing efficient public access, and may support empowerment of the public’s capacity to work with data and to participate in the discussion of community development initiatives, environmental problems and .decision making GIS support community involvement and provide focus for a community’s discussion of diverse ideas as well as guiding them through the planning and design process. When combined with a community involvement program, it may raise awareness of environmental and urban planning problems, design and .decision making issues and facilitate better communication
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