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Concepts of probability have been around for thousands of years, but probability theory did not arise as a branch of mathematics until the mid -seventeenth century. During the fifteenth century several probability works emerged. Calculations of probabilities became more noticeab le during this time period eventhough mathematicians in Italy and France remained unfamiliar with these calculation methods (David, 1962). In 1494, Fra Luca Paccioli wrote the first printed work on probability, Summa de arithmetica, geometria, proportioni e proportionalita (David, 1962). In 1550, Geronimo Cardano inspired by the Summa wrote a book about games of chance called Liber de Ludo Aleae which means A Book on Games of Chance (David, 1962). In the mid-seventeenth century, a simple question directed to Blaise Pascal by a nobleman sparked the birth of probability theory, as we know it today. Chevalier de Méré gambled frequently to increase his wealth . He bet on a roll of a die that at least one 6 would appear during a total of four rolls. From past experience, he knew that he was more successful than not with this game of chance. Tired of his approach, he decided to change the game. He bet that he would get a total of 12, or a double 6, on twenty -four rolls of two dice. Soon he realized that his old approach to the game resulted in more money. He asked his friend Blaise Pascal why his new approach was not as profitable. Pascal worked through the problem and found that the probability of winning using the new approach was only 49.1 percent compared to 51.8 percent using the old approach (Smith, 1996). This problem proposed by Chevalier de Méré is said be the start of famous correspondence between Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. They continued to exchange their thoughts on mathematical principles and problems through a series of letters. Historians think that the first letters written were associated with the above problem and other problems dea ling with probability theory. Therefore, Pascal and Fermat are the mathematicians credited with the founding of probability theory (David, 1962). The topic of probability is seen in many facets of the modern world. The theory of probability is not just taught in mathematics courses, but can be seen in practical fields, such as insurance, industrial quality control, study of genetics, quantum mechanics, and the kinetic theory of gases (Simmons, 1992).

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f ilit i ern evel ent. ling hows that The ientifi t there has een an interest in antif ing the i eas of robabilit for illennia, but exact athematical escri tions of use in those roblems onl arose much later. According to Richard Jeffrey, "Before the middle of the seventeenth century, the term ' robable' atin probabilis) meant approvabl , and was applied in that sense, univocally, to opinion and to action. A probable action or opinion was one such as sensible people would undertake or hold, in the circumstances." owever, in legal contexts especially, 'probable' could also apply to propositions for which there was good evidence. [ Aside from some elementary considerations made by irolamo ardano in the th century, the doctrine of probabilitie s dates to the correspondence of Pierre de ermat and Blaise Pascal ). hristiaan uygens 7) gave the earliest known scientific treatment of the subject. Jakob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi posthumous, 7 3) and Abraham de oivre's Doctrine of C ances 7 ) treated the subject as a branch of mathematics. See Ian acking's T e E ergence of Probability and James ranklin's T e Science of Conject re for histories of the early development of the very concept of mathematical probability. The theory of errors may be traced back to Roger otes's Opera Miscellanea posthumous, 7 ), but a memoir prepared by Thomas Simpson in 7 printed 7 ) first applied the theory to the discussion of errors of observation. The reprint 7 7) of this memoir lays down the axioms that positive and negative errors are equally probable, and that there are certain assignable limits within which all errors may be supposed to fall; continuous errors are discussed and a probability curve is given. Pierre-Simon aplace 77 ) made the first attempt to deduce a rule for the combination of observations from the principles of the theory of probabilities. e represented the law of probability of errors by a curve y = x), x being any error and y its probability, and laid down three properties of this curve: . it is symmetric as to the y-axis; . the x-axis is an asymptote, the probability of the error being ; 3. the area enclosed is , it being certain that an error exists. e also gave 7 ) a formula for the law of facility of error a term due to agrange, 77 ), but one which led to unmanageable equations. aniel Bernoulli 77 ) introduced the principle of the maximum product of the probabilities of a system of concurrent errors.

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The method of least squares is due to Adrien-Marie Legendre (1805), who introduced it in his Nouvelle méthode pour la détermination de orbite de comète (New ethod for etermining the Orbit of omet ). In ignorance of Legendre s contribution, an Irish -American writer, obert Adrain, editor of The Analyst (1808), first deduced the law of facility of err or,

h being a constant depending on precision of observation, and c a scale factor ensuring that the area under the curve equals 1. He gave two proofs, the second being essentially the same as ohn Herschel s (1850). Gauss gave the first proof which seems to have been known in Europe (the third after Adrain s) in 1809. Further proofs were given by Laplace (1810, 1812), Gauss (182 ), ames Ivory (1825, 1826), Hagen (18 ), Friedrich Bessel (18 8), W. F. Donkin (1844, 1856), and Morgan Crofton (18 0). Other contributors were Ellis (1844), De Morgan (1864), Glaisher (18 2), and Giovanni Schiaparelli (18 5). Peters s (1856) formula for r, the probable error of a single observation, is well known. In the nineteenth century authors on the general theory included Laplace, Sylvestre Lacroix (1816), Littrow (18 ), Adolphe Quetelet (185 ), ichard Dedekind (1860), Helmert (18 2), Hermann Laurent (18 ), Liagre, Didion, and Karl Pearson. Augustus De Morgan and George Boole improved the exposition of the theory. Andrey Markov introduced the notion of Markov chains (1906) playing an important role in theory of stochastic processes and its applications. The modern theory of probability based on the meausure theory was developed by Andrey Kolmogorov (19 1). On the geometric side (see integral geometry) contributors to he Educational ime were influential (Miller, Crofton, McColl, Wolstenholme, Watson, and Artemas Martin

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(iii) PROBABILITY T EORY

Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysis of random phenomena. The central objects of probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes, and events: mathematical abstractions of nondeterministic events or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in an apparently random fashion. Although an individual coin toss or the roll of a die is a random event, if repeated man y times the sequence of random events will exhibit certain statistical patterns, which can be studied and predicted. Two representative mathematical results describing such patterns are the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.

As a mathematical foundation for statistics, probability theory is essential to many human activities that involve quantitative analysis of large sets of data. Methods of probability theory also apply to descriptions of complex systems given only partial knowledge of their state, as in statistical mechanics. A great discovery of twentieth century physics was the probabilistic nature of physical phenomena at atomic scales, described in quantum mechanics.

istory

The mathematical theory of probability has its roots in attempts to analyze games of chance by Gerolamo Cardano in the sixteenth century, and by Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal in the seventeenth century (for example the problem of points ). Christiaan Huygens published a book on the subject in 165 . Initially, probability theory mainly considered discrete events, and its methods were mainly combinatorial. Eventually, analytical considerations compelled the incorporation of continuous variables into the theory. This culminated in modern probability theory, the foundatio ns of which were laid by Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov. Kolmogorov combined the notion of sample space, introduced by ichard von Mises, and measure theory and presented his axiom system for probability theory in 19 . Fairly quickly this became the undisputed axiomatic basis for modern probability theory.

(iv) Applications of probability theory and its importance to real life

Probability theory was originally developed to help gamblers determine the best bet to make in a given situation. Many gambl ers still rely on probability theory ² either consciously or unconsciously ²to make gambling decisions. Probability theory today has a much broader range of applications than just in gambling, however. For example, one of the great changes that took place in physics during the 1920s was the realization that many events in nature cannot be described with perfect certainty. The best one can do is to say how likel the occurrence of a particular event might be. When the nuclear model of the atom was first proposed, for example, scientists felt confident that electrons traveled in very specific orbits around the nucleus of the atom. Eventually they found that there was no basis for this level of certainty. Instead, the best they could do was to specify the probability that a given electron would appear in various regions of space in the atom. If you have ever seen a picture of an atom in a science or chemistry book, you know that the cloudlike appearance of the ato m is a way of showing the probability that electrons occur in various parts of the atom. Two major applications of probability theory in everyday life are in risk assessment and in trade on commodity markets. Governments typically apply probabilistic methods in environmental regulation where it is called pathway analysis , often measuring well-being using methods that are stochastic in nature, and choosing projects to undertake based on statistical analyses of their probable eff ect on the population as a whole. A good example is the effect of the perceived probability of any widespread Middle East conflict on oil prices - which have ripple effects in the economy as a whole. An assessment by a commodity trader that a war is more likely vs. less likely sends prices up or down, and signals other traders of that opinion. Accordingly, the probabilities are not assessed independently nor necessarily very rationally. The theory of behavioural finance emerged to describe the effect of such groupthink on pricing, on policy, and on peace and conflict. It can reasonably be said that the discovery of rigorous methods to assess and combine probability assessments has had a profound effect on modern society. Accordingly, it may be of some importance to most citizens to understand how odds and probability assessments are made , and how they contribute to reputations and to decisions, especially in a democracy. Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life is reliability. Many consumer products, such as automobiles and consumer electronics, utilize reliability theory in the design of the product in order to reduce the probability of failure. The probability of failure may be closely associated with the product s warranty.

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i.

Theoretical Probabilities

Definition of Theoretical Probability

Probability is a likelihood that an event will happen. We can find the theoretical probability of an event using the following ratio:

The cla ical interpretation of probability is a theoretical probability based on the physics of the experiment, but does not require the experiment to be performed. For example, we know that the probability of a balanced coin turning up heads is equal to 0.5 without ever performing trials of the experiment. Under the classical interpretation, the probability of an event is defined as the ratio of the number of outcomes favourable to the event divided by the total number o f possible outcomes. A manager frequently faces situations in which neither classical nor empirical probabilities are useful. For example, in a one -shot situation such as the launch of a unique product, the probability of success can neither be calculated nor estimated from repeated trials. However, the manager may make an educated guess of the probability. This subjective probabilit can be thought of as a person s degree of confidence that the event will occur. In absence of better information upon which to rely, subjective probability may be used to make logically consistent decisions, but the quality of those decisions depends on the accuracy of the subjective estimate.

Outcomes and Events

An event is a subset of all of the possible outcomes of an experiment. For example, if an experiment consists of flipping a coin two times, the possible outcomes are:

y y y y

heads, heads heads, tails tails, heads tails, tails

One can define the showing of heads at least one time to be an event, and this event would consist of three of the four possible outcomes. Given that the probability of each outcome is known, the probability of an event can be determined by summing the pr obabilities of the individual outcomes associated with the event.

A composite event is an event defined by the union or intersection of two events. The union of two events is expressed by the or function. For example, the probability that either Event A or Event B (or both) will occur is expressed by P(A or B). The intersection of two events is the probability that both events will occur and is expressed by the and function. For example, the probability that both Event A and Event B will occur is expressed by P(A and B).

ii.

Empirical Probabilities

**Definition of Empirical Probability
**

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Empirical probability of an event is the ratio of the number of times the event occurs to the total number of trials .

Empirical probability , also known as relative frequency , or experimental probability , is the ratio of the number favo urable outcomes to the total number of trials, not in a sample space but in an actual sequence of experiments. In a more general sense, empirical probability estimates probabilities from experience and observation. The phrase a posterior probability has also been used as an alternative to empirical probability or relative frequency. This unusual usage of the phrase is not directly related to Bayesian inference and not to be confused with its equally occasional use to refer to posterior probability, which is something else.

In statistical terms, the empirical probability is an estimate of a probability. If modelling using a binomial distribution is appropriate, it is the maximum likelihood estimate. It is the Bayesian estimate for the same case if certain assumptions are made for the prior distribution of the probability An advantage of estimating probabilities using empirical probabilities is that this procedure is relatively free of assumptions. For example, consider es timating the probability among a population of men that they satisfy two conditions: (i) (ii) that they are over 6 feet in height; that they prefer strawberry jam to raspberry jam.

A direct estimate could be found by counting the number of men who satisfy both conditions to give the empirical probability the combined condition. An alternative estimate could be found by multiplying the proportion of men who are over 6 feet in height with the proportion of men who prefer strawberry jam to raspberry jam, but this estimate relies on the assumption that the two conditions are statistically independent. A disadvantage in using empirical probabilities arises in estimating probabilities which are either very close to zero, or very close to one. In these cases very large sample sizes would be needed in order to estimate such probabilities to a good standard of relative accuracy. Here statistical models can help, depending on the context, and in general one can hope that such models would provide improvements in accuracy compared to empirical probabilities, provided that the assumptions involved actually do hold. For example, consider estimating the probability that the lowest of the daily -maximum temperatures at a site in February in any one year is less zero degrees Celsius. A record of such temperatures in past years could be used to estimate this probability. A model-based alternative would be to select of family of probability distributions and fit it to the dataset

contain past yearly values: the fitted distribution would provide an alternative estimate of the required probability. Properties of Empirical Probability:

(a) The empirical probability of each outcome of a n element between 0 and 1. (b) The empirical probabilities of all the outcomes add up to 1. (c) The empirical probability of an event value is the sum of the empirical probabilities of the individual outcomes in E.

Sometimes a situation may be too complex to understand the physical nature of it well enough to calculate probabilities. However, by running a large number of trials and observing the outcomes, we can estimate the probability. This is the empirical probability based on long -run relative frequencies and is defined as the ratio of the number of obs erved outcomes favourable to the event divided by the total number of observed outcomes. The larger the number of trials, the more accurate the estimate of probability. If the system can be modelled by computer, then simulations can be performed in place o f physical trials.

a) Suppose you are playing the Monopoly game with two of your friends. To start the game, each player will have to toss the die once. The player who obtains the highest number will start the game. List all the possible outcomes when the die is tossed once. When you roll just one die, there are six different ways the die can land, as shown by the following graphic:

_1,2,3,4,5,6a

b) Instead of one die, two dice can also be tossed simultaneously by each player. The player will move the token according to the sum of all dots on both turned-up faces. For example, if the two dice are tossed simultaneously and ³2´ appears on one die and ³ ´ appears on the other, the outcome of the toss is (2, ). Hence, the player shall move the token 5 spaces. Note: the events (2, ) and ( ,2) should be treated as two different events. List all the possible outcomes when two dice are tossed simultaneously. Organize and present you list clearly. Consider the use of table, chart or even tree diagram. Solution:

Two dice are thrown. So, there are 6 elements in the sample space as shown in the table below.

Table 1 show the sum of all dots on both turned up faces when two dice are tossed simultaneously. a) Complete Table 1 by listing all possible outcomes and their corresponding probabilities. Sum of the dots on both turnedup faces (x) 2 Possible outcomes P(x) (1,1) (1,2), (2,1) 4 5 6 (1, ), ( ,1), (2,2) (1,4), (4,1), (2, ), ( ,2) (1,5), (5,1), (2,4), (4,2), ( , ) (1,6), (6,1), (2,5), (5,2), ( ,4), (4, ) 8 9 10 11 12 (2,6), (6,2), ( ,5), (5, ), (4,4) ( ,6), (6, ), (4,5), (5,4) (4,6), (6,4), (5,5) (5,6), (6,5) (6,6) No.of total outcome 6 Probability, P(x)

0.02

8

0.05556 0.08 0.1111 0.1 89 0.166 0.1 89 0.1111 0.08 0.05556 0.02 8

Table 1

b) Based on Table 1 that you have completed, list all the possible outcomes of the following events and hence find their corresponding probabilities: A _The two numbers are not the same a A _(1,2),(1, ),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2, ),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),( ,1),( ,2),( ,4),( ,5), (6, 4), ( ,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4, ),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5, ),(5, 4),(5,6),(6,1),(6,2),(6, ), (6, 5) a B B

_The products of the two number is greater than 6 a _a

**C _Both numbers are prime or the difference between two numbers is odd a C _(1,2),(1,4),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2, ),(2,5),( ,2),( , ),( ,5),( ,6),(4,1),(4, ),(4,5), (5,2),(5, ),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),(6, ),(6,5) a D D
**

_The sum of the two numbers are even and both numbers are prime a _(2,2),( , ),( ,5),(5, ),(5,5)a

a) Conduct an activity by tossing two dice simultaneously 50 times. Observe the sum of all dots on both turned -up faces. Complete the frequency table below. Sum of the two numbers (x) Frequency (f)

2

1 2

4 5 6

5

6 10

8 9 10 11 12 Table 2

8 6 6 2 1

Based on Table 2 that you have completed, determine the value of: (i) (ii) (iii) Mean; Variance; and Standard deviation

of the data Solution :

b) Predict the value of the mean if the number of tosses is increased to 100 times. Answer: The number of tosses is increased double, the mean will slightly change, maybe will inducted by 2.

c) Test your prediction in (b) by continuing Activity (a) until the total number of tosses is 100 times. Then, determine the value of:

(i) Mean; (ii) Variance; and (iii) Standard deviation of the new data. Was your prediction proven?

Sum of the two numbers (x) 2

Frequency (f) 5 5

4 5 6

10 9 15 16

8 9 10 11 12

14 1 6 5 2

Solution :

When two dice are tossed simultaneously, the actual mean and variance o f the sum of all dots on turned-up faces can be determined by using the formula below:

Mean

Variance

± (mean) 2

a) Based on Table 1, determine the actual mean, th e variance and the standard deviation of the sum of all dots on the turned -up faces by using the formula given. Sum of the dots on both turnedup faces (x) 2 Probability, P(x) P(x)

0.02

8

0.05556 4 5 6 0.08 0.1111 0.1 89 0.166 8 9 10 11 12 0.1 89 0.1111 0.08 0.05556 0.02 No.of total outcome 6 8

Solution: Mean 2(0.02 8) + (0.05556) + 4(0.08 ) + 5(0.1111) + 6(0.1 89) + ) + 11(0.05556) +

(0.166 ) + 8(0.1 89) + 9(0.1111) + 10(0.08 12(0.02 .00028 8)

Variance

± (mean)

[2 (0.02

8) +

(0.05556) + 4 (0.08

) + 5 (0.1111) + 6 (0.1 89) + ) + 11 (0.05556) +

(0.166 ) + 8 (0.1 89) + 9 (0.1111) + 10 (0.08 12 (0.02 8)] ± ( .00028)

54.8 542 ± 49.00 92008 5.8 15

Standard deviation

²

²

2.415

b) Compare the mean, variance and standard deviation obtained in Part 4 and Part 5. What can you say about the values? Explain your own words your interpretation and your understanding of the values that you have obtained and relate your answers to the Theoretical and Empirical Probabilities. Answer: Table below shows the comparison of mean, variance and standard deviation of Part 4 and Part 5 Part 4 N Mean Variance Standard deviation 50 N 100 Part 5 .00 5.80 2.409

We can see that, the mean, variance and standard deviation that we obtained through experiment in Part 4 are different but close to the theoretical value in Part 5. For mean, when the number of trial increased from n 50 to n 100, its value get closer (from 6. 22 to 6.910) to the theoretical value. This is according to the Law of Large Number. Nevertheless, the empirical variance and empirical standard deviation that we obtained in Part 4 get further from the theoretical value in Part 5. These violate the Law of Large Number. This is probably due to

a) The sample (n 100) is not large enough to see the change of va lue of mean, variance and standard deviation. b) Law of Large Number is not an absolute law. Violation of this law is still possible though the probability is relative low. In conclusion, the empirical mean, variance and standard devi ation can be different from the theoretical value. When the number of trial (number of sample ) getting bigger, the empirical value should get closer to the theoretical value. However, violation of this rule is still possible, especially when the number of trial (or sample) is not large enough.

c) If n is the number of times two dice are tossed simultaneously, what is the range of mean of the sum of all dots on the turned -up faces as n changes? Make your conjecture and support your conjecture. The range of mean: 2 < mean < 12 ange of mean changes as n changes. If n increases, range of mean of the sum of all dots turned-up faces will increase, the mean will get closer to . is the theoretical mean. It is based on the number of times two dice are tossed. This is because the numbers of times two dice are tossed affect the sum of all dots on the turned-up faces. So, the value of mean obtained also changes. When the dice are tossed more than 100 times, the range of mean of the sum of all dots turned -up faces will different with the range of mean of dice tossed 100 times. We will get different data of tossed dice in different experiment. The range of mean of the sum of all dots on turned -up faces depends on the number of times two dice are tossed simultaneously.

In probability theory, the aw of arge umbers )´ is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. onduct a research using the internet to find out the theory of . hen you have finished with your research, discuss and write about your findings. Relate the experiment that you have done in this project to the . l g m ) is a theorem that describes In probability theory, the l w the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed. or example, a single roll of a six-sided die produces one of the numbers , , 3, , , , each with equal probability. Therefore, the expected value of a single die roll is

According to the law of large numbers, if a large number of dice are rolled, the average of their values sometimes called the sample mean) is likely to be close to 3. , with the accuracy increasing as more dice are rolled. Similarly, when a fair coin is flipped once, the expected value of the number of heads is equal to one half. Therefore, according to the law of large numbers, the proportion of heads in a large number of coin flips should be roughly one half. In particular, the proportion of h eads after n flips will almost surely converge to one half as n approaches infinity. Though the proportion of heads and tails) approaches half, almost surely the absolute nominal) difference in the number of heads and tails will become large as the number of flips becomes large. That is, the probability that the absolute difference is a small number approaches ero as number of flips becomes large. Also, almost surely the ratio of the absolute difference to number of flips will approach ero. Intuitively, expected absolute difference grows, but at a slower rate than the number of flips, as the number of flips grows. is important because it "guarantees" stable long -term results for random The events. or example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the only applies as the name indicates) when a large number of observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will converge to the expected value or that a streak of one value will immediately be "balanced" by the others. See the ambler's fallacy.

While you conducting the project, what have you learnt? What moral values did you practise? epresent your opinions or feelings creatively through usage of symbols, illustrations, drawings or even in a song. This project had taught me to responsible on the works that are given to me to be completed. This project also had make me felt more confidence to do works and not to give easily when we could not find the solution for the question. I also learned to be more discipline on time, which I was given about a month to complete this project and pass up to my teacher just in time. I also enjoy doing this project during my school holiday as I spend my time with friends to complete this project and it had tighten our friendship.

RE ERENCE

1. www.wikipedia.com 2. www.one-school.net . www.mathtutor.com 4. www.scribd.com 5. Utusan Online 6. Additional Mathematics Form 4 & Form 5

SMK AMINUDDIN BAKI, ALAN KG PANDAN, 55100, KUALA LUMPU

ADDITIONAL MAT EMATICS PROJECT WORK 2010

TASK 2 PROBABILITY

NAME : I/C NUMBER: CLASS : 5 AYA

CONTENT Topics Pa e

Acknowledgement Objectives Task 2 Part 1 Part 2 Part Part 4 Part 5 Further Exploration eflection Enclosure eference

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my special thanks of gratitude to my Additional Mathematics teacher, Pn asidah a maludin as well as our principal Pn Latifah Hj

Mahfod who gave me the golden opportunity to do this wonderful project, which also helped me in doing a lot of research and i came t o know about so many new things. I am really thankful to them. Secondly, i would also like to thank my parents and friends who helped me a lot in finishing this project within the limited time. Thanks for the support and advice for encouraging me doing this Additional Mathematics Project Work. I really appreciate all this. I am making this project not only for marks but to also increase my knowledge. THANKS AGAIN TO ALL WHO HELPED ME.

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