United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station General Technical

Report PSW-77

Potential Fire Behavior
in California:
an atlas and guide
for forest and brushland
managers

Bill C. Ryan

The Author:
BILL C. RYAN, a research meteorologist, is assigned to the Station's forest meteorol­ ogy research unit, headquartered at the Forest Fire Laboratory, Riverside, Calif. He earned a bachelor's degree in chemistry at the University of Nevada (1950), a master's in meteorology at Texas Agricultural and Mechanical University (1964), and a doc­ torate in climatology at the University of California, Riverside (1974). He joined the Station staff in 1967.

Publisher:
Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station P.O. Box 245, Berkeley, California 94701 July 1984

Potential Fire Behavior
in California:
an atlas and guide
for forest and
brushland
managers

Bill C. Ryan

CONTENTS

Introduction .......................................................................................... 1
The Atlas ............................................................................................... 1
Application ......................................................................................... 1
Derivation ........................................................................................... 2
Interpreting the Data ........................................................................... 2
Persistence of Potential Fire Characteristics ........................................ 2
Frequency Distribution ....................................................................... 3
Minimum and Maximum Temperatures and Relative Humidities ....... 3
Precipitation ........................................................................................ 3
Windspeed and Direction .................................................................... 3
Appendix A --Figures 2 to 10 ............................................................... 4
Appendix B--Figure 11, Tables 1 to 18 ................................................ 9
References ........................................................................................... 15

K

nowledge of potential fire-behavior characteristics is needed by forest and brushland managers. They need to know the most probable dates or periods of dangerous fire conditions and probable fire intensities and spread rates. For prescribed fires, they need to know probable dates and lengths of time the burns can be continued within prescription limits. They need to know when weather and fuel conditions will allow accumulated debris and fuel to burn, but not burn so intensely that desirable vegetation is killed or the fire becomes wild. They also need information to estimate whether or not the wind will take smoke into populated areas and cause problems. At the National Fire Weather Data Library, Fort Col­ lins, Colorado, the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, maintains on magnetic tapes a mass of data on weather and fuel moisture. These data are collected from fire-danger rating stations throughout the United States (Furman and Brink 1975). With these data and techniques developed by Deeming and others (1977) potential fire characteristics can be estimated. This report describes an Atlas that provides statistical analyses of potential fire behavior in California's wildlands. Charts and information from the fire-danger rating station at Mount Hebron in northern California serve as an example of the information provided by the Atlas.

THE ATLAS
The Atlas includes 10 volumes. Volume 1 lists the contents and describes the data used to derive the statistics and information in the Atlas. The other nine volumes include one volume for each of the nine sections of California (fig. 1). Maps of each section (appendix A:figs. 2 to 10; appendix B: tables I to 18) show locations of observation stations whose fire weather statistics are included in the Atlas. The maps are accompanied by a list of the stations in each section showing each station name, number, number of years of observation, and the total number of observa­ tions. Stations on the maps are identified by the last four digits of the station number. Because some areas overlap two sections, some station locations are plotted in two sections. When that occurs, information and statistics for that station are included in only one section. The section is indicated by a number next to the station number.

Determining probable length of time that weather and fuel variables will remain within prescription limits and burns can be continued. • Estimating potential fire characteristics between ob­ servations at danger-rating stations. • Determining dates or periods when prescription conditions will probably occur. • Providing data to facilitate estimating number of acres that can be burned within prescription each month. Fire suppression: • Estimating probable number of days in, above, or below specific ranges of fire intensity or spread rates. • Estimating probable maximum fire intensities and spread rates. • Estimating probability of fire intensities or spread rates within specific ranges. • Estimating most probable dates or periods of dan­ gerous fire conditions. General purposes: • Estimating probability of occurrence of specific weather conditions and fuel moisture. • Estimating probability of specific ranges of windspeed and direction during a given month. Because the information in the Atlas is based on the National Fire-Danger Rating System--1978 (NFDRS), the four basic principles of the System should be con­ sidered when using the Atlas: "1. The NFDRS relates only to the potential of the initiating fire. An initiating fire is one that does not behave erratically; it spreads without spotting through continuous

Application
The information contained in the Atlas can help manag­ ers in ... Prescribed burning: • Estimating the probable number of days available with spread component (SC), burning index (BI), and igni­ tion component (IC) within prescription limits.

Figure 1--Areas of California are outlined into nine sections. Each section contains fire-danger observation stations, as indicated on maps (appendix A: figs. 2-10).

ground fuels. Crowning and spotting are not now addressed. However, experience with the NFDRS will enable users to identify the critical levels of fire danger when such behavior is highly probable. "2. The System only addresses those aspects of fire con­ trol strategy affected by fire occurrence and behavior. The concept of containment, as opposed to extinguishment, is basic because it allows us to limit the scope of the rating problem to the behavior potential of the headfire. Other aspects of the containment job such as accessibility, soil condition, and resistance to line construction must be eval­ uated by other means. "3. The ratings are relative, not absolute. Wherever pos­ sible, we have structured the component or index so that it is linearly related to the particular aspect of the fire prob­ lem being rated. Thus, when the value of a component or index doubles, the fire manager should expect a doubling of the rated activity relative to what has been recently observed. The BI is an exception that will be addressed later. "4. Fire danger is rated from a worst case approach. Fire weather is measured at the time of day when fire danger is normally the highest; and, wherever possible, in the open at midslope on southerly or westerly exposures. This impor­ tant principle must be understood if fire-danger ratings are to be properly interpreted."

dates. If greenup is later, fuel moisture will tend to be less and fire severity potential greater. Information about each observation station's fuel mod­ els, location, elevation, length of record, agency affiliation and protection unit are given. The information for Mount Hebron Ranger Station (fig. 11) is included as an example, along with statistics of weather and potential fire character­ istics (tables 1-18). Inventories of observations each year of record for fire-danger observation stations can also be obtained from the National Fire Weather Data Library (Furman and Brink 1975).

INTERPRETING THE DATA
Fire weather observations, except for minimum and maximum temperatures and relative humidities, are recorded for 1300 P.s.t. only. Statistics derived from observations taken at one time of the day cannot be assumed to be representative of conditions at other times of the day. This fact must be considered when using the statistics. Length of record of observations taken at a location is significant because the longer the record, the more confi­ dence that can be placed in the statistics of that record. In California, records vary from only a few months to more than 20 years. The confidence that can be placed in the statistics, therefore, varies greatly from station to station. In the Atlas, statistics were computed for only those sta­ tions with at least 4 years of data for 1 or more months of the year after 1972. The number of observations and years of record have been included with the other statistics to help users evaluate the reliability of the information and establish confidence levels. For example, in April 1973 through December 1981, at Mount Hebron Ranger Sta­ tion, the SC, BI, and IC indicated potentially severe fire conditions compared with other months (tables 2, 4, 6). Only 11 observations were recorded in April during the 9-year period, however. Therefore, these statistics are not reliable indicators of potential fire conditions to be ex­ pected in April.

Derivation
To develop the Atlas, data from the National Fire Weather Data Library were used. Data were processed from magnetic tapes with FORTRAN code modified from the National Fire-Danger Rating System's (Deeming and others 1977) FIREDAT routine (Main and others 1982). Necessary variables such as 1-hour timelag fuel moisture (TLFM), 10-hour TLFM (if necessary), 100-hour TLFM, 1000-hour TLFM, herbaceous and woody fuel moisture, spread component, burning index, and ignition compo­ nent were computed. Spread component, BI, and IC were calculated with current (summer 1981) fuel models, slope, and herbaceous types, as recorded on the 10-day Fire Danger and Fire Weather Record for the stations. The date of greenup-­ when the spring flush of growth becomes generally apparent--is needed for calculations of live fuel moisture. The dates stored in the Administrative Forest Fire Infor­ mation Retrieval and Management System (AFFIRMS)-­ for 1981 and 1982 were used. When the greenup date was not cataloged in AFFIRMS, dates were obtained from the agency responsible for the observations or were estimated on the basis of elevation and dates given for surrounding stations. The potential fire characteristics in or near the month in which greenup begins may vary greatly. If greenup during a particular year is earlier than the date used to produce the tables, fuel moisture will tend to be greater and fire severity potential will tend to be less between the two

Persistence of Potential Fire Characteristics
The persistence of the spread component was analyzed by dividing its range into 10 intervals (table 1). Class inter­ vals were chosen subjectively on the basis of ranges of spread rates for different fuels. The number of consecutive days from the initial day (0) to runs of nine (9) days, was calculated. The percentages of time, according to records, that the SC calculated on day 0 lasted 1, 2, 3, and up to 9 days, were tabulated. The number 29 (circled in table 1)

2

indicates that 29 percent of the time during periods of record when an SC of between 6 and 10 occurred, it remained 6 or more for 4 days. The number of occurrences of SC in each class is in the column labeled "Obs." (for observations). For example, the number of occurrences of SC between 6 and 10 during the period of record was 673. (The SC is scaled so that it is numerically equal to the theoretical rate of spread in feet per minute.) The persistence of the BI (table 3) and IC (table 5) were also determined; these tables are similar to table 1. Class intervals for BI were based on the adjective classes used by the Pacific Southwest Region and the California Depart­ ment of Forestry. Those for IC were obtained by dividing the range (0-100) into 10 equal parts. Persistence of SC, BI, and IC was considered broken if a 3-day or greater break in sequence of observations oc­ curred; that is, if 3 or more days in a row of observations were missing, persistence of all classes (except the lower class) was considered broken. Calculations were made only after 1972 because records of minimum and maximum temperatures and relative humidities were not available for earlier years.

of days with temperatures at 1300 P.s.t. from 65° F (18.3° C) to 77° F (25° C) in June is 43 (74 percent minus 31 percent). The number of days with temperature from 65° F (18.3° C) to 77° F (25° C) in June is 263 (43 percent of 612)-an average of about 12 1/2 days each June, for the 21-year period. Maximum and minimum magnitudes and number of observations for each variable for the months of record are also included in the tables. Statistics of 100-hour TLFM, 1000-hour TLFM, herbaceous-fuel moisture, and woody-fuel moisture content were calculated only for the years after 1972, when records of maximum and minimum temperatures and rela­ tive humidities were generally available.

Minimum and Maximum Temperatures and Relative Humidities
Records of maximum and minimum temperatures and relative humidities were not taken until 1973 at fire weather stations. Thus, tables 8 and 10 are based on data taken after 1972. The record highs, record lows, mean maximums, mean minimums, and means for each month are given in degrees Fahrenheit.

Frequency Distribution
Spread component, BI, IC, fuel moisture variables, and weather variables were divided into 10 classes each. An empirical distribution (survival) function
Fm (x) = N({x i : x i ≥ X}) •100 n

Precipitation
Precipitation amounts and means in inches are given for all months and years of record when possible (table 17). Often, records for months or years are incomplete, so monthly or annual precipitation cannot be determined. For example, no complete year's record was made for Mt. Hebron Ranger Station.

was calculated for each of the 10 lower class boundaries X for each month in which N({xi: xi≥X}) is the number of observed values xi that are greater than or equal to X, and n is the total number of observations for the month. The function was computed to give the frequency of occurrence for each variable for each month in tables 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, and 11 through 16. The total number of observa­ tions for each class, for each month and for the total periods of record are given for each variable. Class intervals for SC were chosen subjectively on the basis of ranges of spread rates for different fuels. Class intervals for BI were determined on the basis of the adjec­ tive classes used by the Pacific Southwest Region and the California Department of Forestry. The class intervals for the other variables were obtained by dividing the estimated maximum ranges of the variables into 10 equal parts. Table 7 gives the empirical distribution function as defined above for temperature for each month. The number circled in table 7, for example, indicates that 74 percent of the time in June the temperature at 1300 P.s.t. reaches at least 65° F (18.3° C). The percentage of tempera­ ture in each specific class can be found by subtracting the percentage on the line below. For example, the percentage

Windspeed and Direction
The percent of joint occurrences of windspeeds and directions for each month were computed (for example, table 18). Windspeeds are divided into 10 classes as shown on the left side of the table. Directions are given to eight points of the compass (eight direction classes). The tables list the percent of joint occurrences of windspeeds in 3 mi/ h (1.3 m/s) classes, and directions in eight points of the compass. For example, in table 18, the circled number 2 indicates that in the 21-year period in the month of May, SE winds from 10 to 12 mi/h (4.5 to 5.4 m/s) occurred 2 percent of the time at 1300 P.s.t. at Mt. Hebron Ranger Station. Because of their similarity to other tables, several tables included in the Atlas for Mount Hebron are not included here. They are the tables that show joint occurrences of windspeed and direction for Mount Hebron for other months of record, June-November, and tables of SC, BI, and IC for fuel model T, which are similar to tables 1-6 in this report for fuel model G.

3

APPENDIX A-Figures 2 to 10
Figures 2 through 10 each contain a map of a section of California. Each map is accompanied by a list of the sta­ tions in the section showing station name and number, number of years of observations, and total number of observations. Stations on the maps are identified by the last four digits of the station number. Because some areas overlap two sections, some station locations are plotted in two sections. A number (superscript) after a station number indicates the section in which information and statistics are given for that station. The following abbrevia­ tions are used in the lists of stations:

BRKRDG FFS FS GS HQ LAVBDS LO MLKRCH RD RS SAWMPK WBO WHSHQD

= = = = = = = = = = = = =

Breckenridge Forest Fire Station Fire Station Guard Station Headquarters Lava Beds Lookout Milk Ranch Ranger District Ranger Station Saw Mill Peak Weather Bureau Office Whiskeytown

Stations in Section 1: Station Black Fox Mountain LO Lodge Pole GS McCloud RS Mt. Hebron RS Mt. Shasta WBO Orr Mountain LO Round Mountain LO Tennant GS LAVBDS Adin RS Blue Mountain LO Canby RS Sugar Hill LO Timber Mountain LO Cedarville Big Bend GS Fall River Mills RS Hat Creek Rim LO Hirz Mountain LO Lakeshore GS Manzanita Lake Redding Squaw Creek GS Sims Bieber FFS Blacks Ridge LO Bogard RS Boyd Hill LO Dow Butte LO Laufman RS Susanville RS Observation Mountain Ravendale Colby Mountain LO Inskip Boulder Creek GS Camel Peak LO Almanor RS Greenville RS Mohawk GS Quincy HQ Smith Peak LO Chilcoot Lexington SAWMPK Saddleback LO

No. 40202 40213 40214 40216 40217 40220 40221 40226 40233 40301 40302 40303 40305 40306 40307 40601 40603 40606 40607 40608 40609 40611 40613 40618 40701 40702 40703 40704 40706 40709 40711 40713 40714 40801 40803 40902 40903 40904 40905 40907 40910 40911 40913 40914 41206 41304

Years 19 12 9 21 20 18 19 18 6 11 18 21 11 18 12 19 20 11 19 19 19 6 8 10 8 19 20 9 20 19 15 12 12 20 6 18 14 20 16 16 19 18 19 5 6 17

Observations 2460 1213 1453 3679 5248 2390 2536 1857 525 1755 2120 5386 1430 2558 1263 2745 4636 1541 2279 2957 2487 922 924 1284 1170 2512 2939 1150 2876 2989 2428 1352 1434 2611 849 2161 1733 3868 2581 2541 5091 2276 2520 525 817 1954

Figure 2--Section 1. 4

4

Figure 3--Section 2. Stations in Section 2: Station Gasquet RS Ship Mountain Bald Mountain Blue Ridge LO Callahan RS Crawford Creek GS Forks of Salmon GS Fort Jones RS Happy Camp RS Oak Knoll RS Sawyers Bar Seiad RS Somesbar Okonom Lookout Parcgy Collins Creek Baldy LO Brush Mountain LO Hoopa Schoolhouse Peak LO Willow Creek Eel River Big Bar RS Coffee Creek RS Hayfork RS Hyampom GS Limedyke LO Mad River RS Ruth RS Weaverville RS Harrison Gulch RS WHSHQD Eagle Peak LO Saddle Camp GS Eel River RS Alder Springs No. 40102 40105 40201 40203 40204 40205 40208 40209 40211 40218 40222 40224 40231 40232 40234 40237 40404 40408 40413 40420 40421 40501 40502 40503 40504 40506 40507 40508 40510 40604 40628 40802 40809 41005 41101 Years 20 7 5 19 20 17 17 16 11 20 21 18 16 15 6 9 20 8 15 13 8 20 20 20 18 19 20 18 20 20 9 20 10 20 20 Observations 2811 787 642 2452 3747 2221 2288 4592 1763 4718 4288 3761 2838 1742 809 1202 2691 1197 1765 2629 1108 3310 3110 3404 2428 2714 3062 2301 5030 3420 1439 2634 1151 2833 2827

Figure 4--Section 3. Stations in Section 3: Station Dog Valley Challenge RS Truckee RS White Cloud Duncan Peak GS Forest Hill FS Stateline LO Armstrong Hill LO Bald Mountain LO Georgetown RS Meyers RS Markleeville Blue Mountain LO Fowler Groveland RS Mt. Elizabeth LO Pine Crest RS Woods Ridge LO Bridgeport RS Lee Vining Walker Crane Jerseydale FFS Wawona Miami Valley Minarets RS North Fork RS Batterson RS No. 41302 41701 41804 41806 41901 41902 41904 42601 42603 42606 42607 42802 43203 43204 43603 43605 43606 43609 43702 43703 43707 44102 44105 44109 44110 44111 44203 44204 44207 Years 18 19 20 7 18 20 20 18 19 20 20 18 14 13 20 20 20 17 18 20 7 9 18 9 10 4 20 20 10 Observations 2460 2997 4343 1025 2059 4080 2583 2491 2892 5837 4582 2831 1792 1631 5343 2862 3091 2281 3436 5426 936 1335 3454 1329 1453 621 2795 6034 1991

5

Figure 5--Section 4. Stations in Section 4: Station Howard Forest FFS High Glade LO Soda Creek GS Konocti Stonyfork RS Mt. Jackson LO St. Helena Woodacre FS No. 41007 41402 41406 41407 41503 42004 42106 42302 Years 15 17 20 9 20 8 8 8 Observations 1928 2245 2918 1240 6066 992 1087 1056

Figure 6--Section 5. Stations in Section 5: Station Mammoth RS Bald Mountain LO Fence Meadow GS Mountain Rest Pinehurst RS Trimmer Delilah LO Kaiser Ash Mountain Grant Park Ridge Wishon MLKRCH Cedar Lone Pine RS Round Valley No. 43704 43706 44503 44505 44508 44510 44512 44513 44701 44705 44713 44717 44718 44719 44802 44803 Years 20 8 20 10 20 10 10 5 21 5 14 10 6 6 20 18 Observations 3831 1039 3068 1630 4076 2273 1425 573 3398 669 1605 1309 731 892 3863 4835

6

Figure 7--Section 6. Stations in Section 6: Station Corralitos Eagle Rock Burrell Arroyo Seco GS Big Sur GS Chews Ridge LO Cone Peak LO The Indians No. 43802 43803 43806 44301 44302 44305 44306 44313 Years 6 13 5 20 19 19 19 19 Observations 899 1807 550 5265 3577 2789 2754 2517

Figure 8--Section 7. Stations in Section 7: Station Branch Mountain LO Pozo GS Figueroa GS Los Prietos RS Monastery Casitas Ozena Rose Valley No. 44901 44908 45101 45103 45111 45208 45210 45211 Years 19 19 19 19 5 16 10 9 Observations 2829 3703 3746 5730 939 2417 1718 1613

7

Figure 9--Section 8. Stations in Section 8: Station Bald Mountain Uhl Camp Whitsett Tobias Chimny Democrat Springs Kernville FS BRKRDG Chuchupate Temescal RS Big Pines Chatsworth FS Clear Creek FS Duarte FS Lechuza FS Little Tujunga GS Padua Hills FS Sierra Pelona LO Tanbark Vallyermo RS Vetter LO Vincent FS Warm Springs LO Slide Mountain Newhall No. 44702 44712 44715 44716 44721 45002 45005 45009 45201 45207 45301 45304 45305 45306 45310 45311 45316 45318 45321 45323 45324 45325 45326 45328 45330 Years 18 16 8 10 4 19 20 5 19 20 19 8 10 13 8 19 17 19 10 20 19 17 20 8 8 Observations 2629 4346 921 1322 512 3050 4286 611 6055 3859 4501 1338 2092 2325 1166 3913 4124 2982 1415 4793 2546 4389 3401 994 1274

Figure 10--Section 9. Stations in Section 9: Station Fawnskin Big Pine Flats GS Converse GS Lytle Creek RS Mill Creek RS Strawberry Peak LO Rock Camp RS Devore Mormon Rocks Banning GS Cranston GS Keenwild GS Kenworthy GS Red Mountain LO Temescal GS Vista Grande GS Alpine GS Cameron GS Descanso RS Julian FFS Laguna GS Oak Grove RS Pine Hills GS Tenaja GS Ramona No. 45401 45402 45405 45408 45409 45410 45411 45413 45414 45601 45603 45604 45605 45608 45611 45612 45701 45704 45707 45708 45709 45710 45711 45715 45720 Years 20 18 19 20 20 19 18 9 10 18 19 20 19 19 20 16 20 20 20 16 20 20 20 20 9 Observations 6162 2937 3646 6304 6388 3362 3037 2445 1948 3394 3645 5392 3241 2855 4652 2776 4085 4071 6273 3292 3645 5732 3588 3819 2357

8

APPPENDIX B—Figure 11, Tables 1 to 18

Figure 11--Information for Mount Hebron Ranger Station.

Table 1 --Percent probability of n consecutive days of spread component remaining in or becoming greater than initial range for 1300 P.s.t. Mount Hebron RS 40216 Model: G Observations: 1374 Slope class: 2 Vegetation type: P Years of record: 9

9

Table 2--Cumulative percent probability of spread component occurrence by class and month and minimum and maximum by month for 1300 P.s.t. Mount Hebron RS 40216 Month Spread component 0-5 6-10 11-20 21-40 41-80 81-160 161-320 321-640 641-1000 1001+ Maximum Minimum Observations Jan. 0 Feb. 0 Mar. 0 Apr. 100 100 73 55 9 0 0 0 0 0 60 6 11 May 100 83 40 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 3 149 June 100 63 18 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 0 263 July 100 72 18 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 1 272 Aug. 100 68 20 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 1 271 Sept. 100 68 24 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 0 254 Oct. 100 80 17 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 49 3 143 Nov. Dec. 100 55 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 3 11 0 Obs. 398 673 242 57 4 0 0 0 0 0 Years of record: 9

1374

Table 3--Percent probability of n consecutive days of burning index remaining in or becoming greater than initial range for 1300 P.s.t. Mount Hebron RS 40216 Observations: 1374 Model: G Slope class: 2 Vegetation type: P Years of record: 9 Length of run (days) Burning index 0-15 16-30 31-35 36-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91+ 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1 100 95 74 65 48 29 24 26 5 17 2 100 90 63 49 33 16 5 0 0 0 3 100 86 51 36 22 9 2 0 0 0 4 100 81 45 26 16 5 0 0 0 0 5 100 81 38 21 11 3 0 0 0 0 6 100 76 32 19 8 2 0 0 0 0 7 100 71 27 17 7 1 0 0 0 0 8 100 71 24 16 6 0 0 0 0 0 9 100 71 23 15 5 0 0 0 0 0 Obs. 16 220 220 260 372 171 66 23 19 7

Table 4--Cumulative percent probability of burning index occurrence by class and month and minimum and maximum by month for 1300 P.s.t. Mount Hebron RS 40216 Month Burning index 0-15 16-30 31-35 36-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91+ Maximum Minimum Observations Jan. 0 Feb. 0 Mar. 0 Apr. 100 100 100 100 91 64 64 55 27 18 114 38 11 May 100 99 81 62 44 19 5 1 0 0 78 15 149 June 100 99 76 56 40 15 5 3 2 0 90 0 263 July 100 100 91 83 60 21 8 2 1 0 90 12 272 Aug. 100 97 86 71 59 33 13 6 3 1 94 1 271 Sept. 100 99 77 61 45 19 7 4 2 1 97 0 254 Oct. 100 100 87 61 28 10 6 3 1 0 85 19 143 Nov. Dec. 100 100 55 36 9 0 0 0 0 0 45 20 11 0 Obs. 16 220 220 260 372 171 66 23 19 7 1374 Years of record: 9

10

Table 5-- Percent probability of n consecutive days of ignition component remaining in or becoming greater than initial range for 1300 P.s.t. Mount Hebron RS 40216 Observations: 1374 Model: G Slope class : 2 Vegetation type: Years of record: 9 Length of run (days) Ignition component 0-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-100 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1 100 81 70 48 31 16 27 0 0 0 2 100 65 56 34 13 6 0 0 0 0 3 100 61 42 21 6 0 0 0 0 0 4 100 54 35 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 5 10 48 30 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 100 44 25 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 10 44 21 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 100 40 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 10 38 16 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 Obs. 175 295 456 285 101 34 17 8 3 0 P

Table 6--Cumulative percent probability of ignition component occurrence by class and month and minimum and maximum by month for 1300 P.s.t. Mount Hebron RS Ignition component 0-10 11-20 21-30 3140 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-100 Maximum Minimum Observations 40216 Month June July 100 82 57 22 7 3 1 0 0 0 84 0 263 100 94 75 42 15 4 1 1 0 0 84 0 272 Years of record: 9

Jan. 0

Feb. Mar. 0 0

Apr. 100 100 100 82 36 27 9 0 0 0 67 22 11

May 100 80 48 19 5 2 1 0 0 0 64 0 149

Aug 100 89 73 40 18 8 4 1 0 0 89 0 271

Sept. 100 87 67 37 13 5 3 1 0 0 78 0 254

Oct. 100 89 69 25 6 3 1 1 0 0 72 0 143

Nov. Dec. 100 64 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 2 11 0

Obs. 175 295 456 285 101 34 17 8 3 0 0 0 1374

Table 7--Cumulative percent probability of temperature occurrence by class and month and minimum and maximum by month for 1300 P.s.t.

11

Table 8--Temperature means and record highs and lows for the period of record after 1972
Mount Hebron RS Temperature (° F) Record high Mean maximum Mean Mean minimum Record low Observations 40216 Month Jan. 0 Feb. 0 Mar 0 Apr. 76 66 47 29 14 11 May 84 65 49 32 11 149 Jun 92 75 57 39 19 263 July 97 83 64 44 13 272 Aug. 102 81 61 41 27 271 Sept 92 77 56 36 17 254 Oct 88 70 48 27 9 143 Nov 69 55 32 10 -4 11 Dec. 0 Years of record: 9

Table 9--Cumulative percent probability of relative humidity occurrence by class and month and minimum and maximum by, month for 1300 P.s.t. Mount Hebron RS Relative humidity (pct) 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-100 Maximum Minimum Observations 40216 Month Jan. 100 100 100 93 82 71 68 46 18 0 88 25 28 Feb. 100 100 100 93 86 59 38 28 10 0 88 26 29 Mar. 100 100 96 79 60 44 23 15 8 0 84 14 52 Apr 100 99 79 48 30 19 14 8 5 1 92 9 113 May 100 99 88 60 33 19 8 5 2 1 100 5 389 June 100 100 90 55 29 15 9 5 2 0 100 8 612 July 100 99 75 28 8 4 1 0 0 0 89 5 644 Aug. 100 99 75 35 14 8 4 2 1 0 90 6 638 Sept. 100 100 77 40 19 9 5 3 2 0 100 6 614 Oct. Nov. 100 100 85 56 32 18 9 5 2 1 100 9 421 100 100 98 88 70 52 28 18 8 3 100 13 108 Dec. 100 100 100 97 87 67 37 13 3 3 93 28 30 Obs. 20 640 1292 815 379 243 117 88 67 17 Years of record: 21

3678

Table 10--Relative humidity means and record highs and lows for the period of record after 1972 Mount Hebron RS Relative humidity (pct) Record high Mean maximum Mean Mean minimum Record low Observations Jan. 0 Feb. 0 Mar 0 Apr. 100 69 43 17 8 11 May 100 93 63 33 8 149 June 100 91 61 30 8 266 40216 Month July 100 88 57 25 7 273 Aug. 100 91 58 26 6 272 Sept. 100 94 61 28 5 254 Oct . 100 96 61 27 9 142 Nov 100 94 66 37 11 11 Dec. 0 Years of record: 9

12

Table 11-- Cumulative percent probability of 1-h TLFM occurrence by class and month and minimum and maximum by month for 1300 P.s.t. Mount Hebron RS 40216 Month 1-h TFLM (pct) 0-1 2-3 4-5 6-7 8-9 10-II 12-13 14-15 16-17 18+ Maximum Minimum Observations Jan. 100 100 100 86 79 57 32 21 18 7 26 5 28 Feb. 100 100 100 97 76 48 31 24 21 14 19 5 29 Mar. 100 100 98 85 46 27 21 12 8 2 18 3 52 Apr. 100 100 88 49 27 18 12 8 5 4 26 2 113 May 100 100 94 60 36 19 11 5 3 2 26 2 389 June 100 100 93 51 27 16 9 6 5 4 28 2 582 July 100 100 76 22 7 3 1 1 0 0 21 2 613 Aug. 100 100 75 27 12 7 4 2 2 1 26 2 605 Sept. 100 100 78 32 14 8 5 3 2 1 28 2 584 Oct. 100 100 91 52 26 14 8 5 4 3 31 2 401 Nov. 100 100 99 91 65 38 22 15 12 7 32 3 108 Dec. 100 100 100 97 73 43 10 7 7 7 26 5 30 Obs. 0 543 1487 718 338 192 101 36 37 82 Years of record: 21

3534

Table 12--Cumulative percent probability of 10-h TLFM occurrence hr class and month and minimum and maximum by month for 1300 P.s.t. Mount Hebron RS 40216 Month 10-h TLFM (pct) 0-1 2-3 4-5 6-7 8-9 10-11 12-13 14-15 16-17 18+ Maximum Minimum Observations Jan. 0 Feb. 0 Mar. 0 Apr. 100 100 100 100 91 64 27 0 0 0 12 7 11 May 100 100 99 94 78 51 32 22 15 11 46 3 389 June 100 100 100 92 64 41 26 17 13 10 50 3 582 July 100 100 98 65 27 15 7 3 2 1 35 3 613 Aug. 100 100 97 59 28 18 10 7 5 4 50 2 605 Sept. 100 100 99 64 37 21 12 8 6 5 50 2 584 Oct. 100 100 99 86 64 42 27 17 10 6 50 3 401 Nov. 100 100 100 98 97 88 69 41 30 19 50 5 108 Dec. 100 100 100 100 100 97 77 60 33 10 38 9 30 Obs. 0 47 766 937 599 435 271 147 94 238 Years of record: 21

3534

Table 13--Cumulative percent probability of 100-h TLFM occurrence by class and month and minimum and maximum by month for 1300 P.s.t. Mount Hebron RS 40216 Month 100-h TLFM Jan. (pct) 0-1 2-3 4-5 6-7 8-9 10-11 12-13 14-15 16-17 18+ Maximum Minimum Observations 0 Feb. 0 Mar. 0 Apr. 100 100 100 100 91 64 27 0 0 0 12 7 11 May 100 100 100 100 100 100 95 70 31 14 25 10 149 June 100 100 100 100 100 93 76 41 17 5 22 7 266 July 100 100 100 100 99 88 62 24 4 1 20 7 273 Aug. 100 100 100 100 98 84 71 50 20 7 36 7 272 Sept. 100 100 100 100 100 100 95 83 46 19 32 9 254 Oct. 100 100 100 100 I00 100 100 97 85 36 23 12 143 Nov. 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 64 20 16 11 Dec. 100 100 100 100 100 0 Obs. 0 0 0 11 89 177 330 364 246 162 Years of record: 9

1379

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Table 14--Cumulative percent probability of 1000-h TLFM occurrence by class and month and minimum and maximum by month for 1300 P.s. t. Mount Hebron RS 40216 Method 1000-h TLFM (PC ) 0-1 2-3 4-5 6-7 8-9 10-11 12-13 14-15 16-17 18+ Maximum Minimum Observations Jan. 0 Feb. 0 Mar. 0 Apr. 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 36 19 16 11 May 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 99 68 22 15 149 June 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 88 52 26 20 11 266 July 100 100 100 100 100 100 93 50 12 3 18 11 273 Aug 100 100 100 100 100 100 66 38 17 10 28 10 272 Sept 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 76 48 28 25 12 254 Oct 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 79 42 22 15 143 Nov. 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 91 18 17 11 Dec 0 Obs. 0 0 0 0 0 112 285 359 272 351 Years of record: 9

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Table 15--Cumulative percent probability of woody fuel moisture occurrence by class and month and minimum and maximum by month for 1300 P.s.t. Mount Hebron RS 40216 Month Moisture (pct) 0-29 30-59 60-89 90-119 120-149 150-179 180-209 210-239 240-269 270+ Maximum Minimum Observations Jan. 0 Feb 0 Mar 0 Apr 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 60 11 May 100 100 100 46 17 3 0 0 0 0 160 60 149 June 100 100 100 99 57 3 0 0 0 0 158 89 266 July 100 100 100 93 14 0 0 0 0 0 145 82 273 Aug. 100 100 100 66 19 7 6 0 0 0 200 74 272 Sept 100 100 100 64 33 10 0 0 0 0 180 60 254 Oct 100 100 100 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 140 60 143 Nov 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 60 11 Dec. 0 Obs. 0 0 443 580 299 39 18 0 0 0 Years of record: 9

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Table 16--Cumulative percent probability of herbaceous fuel moisture occurrence by class and month and minimum and maximum by month for 1300 P.s.t. Mount Hebron RS 40216 Month Moisture (pct) 0-29 30-59 60-89 90-119 120-149 150-179 180-209 210-239 240-269 270+ Maximum Minimum Observations Jan. 0 Feb. 0 Mar. 0 Apr. 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 3 11 May 100 61 45 29 15 5 1 0 0 0 180 4 149 June 100 100 100 100 53 11 0 0 0 0 176 89 266 July 100 100 100 78 1 0 0 0 0 0 121 73 273 Aug. 100 100 100 38 7 6 0 0 0 0 150 59 272 Sept 100 64 64 39 6 1 0 0 0 0 150 3 254 Oct. 100 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 2 143 Nov 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 4 11 Dec. 0 Obs. 308 25 319 529 141 56 1 0 0 0 Years of record: 9

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Table 17--Precipitation (inches) Mount Hebron RS 40216 Month Year 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Mean Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May 1.00 1.00 June 1.65 0.56 0.78 1.63 0.69 2.02 0.83 1.14 1.52 0.39 0.00 0.05 0.77 1.24 0.25 1.30 0.22 0.88 July inches 0.14 0.31 0.33 0.26 0.11 0.01 0.00 0.33 0.22 0.07 0.02 1.06 0.13 0.78 0.07 0.58 0.13 0.27 Aug. 0.53 0.25 0.11 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.13 0.11 3.05 1.40 0.00 0.18 0.49 Sept. 0.69 0.30 0.08 0.12 0.02 0.55 0.16 0.08 0.17 0.00 0.64 0.47 0.00 0.48 0.27 Oct. 0.10 0.00 0.17 0.88 1.65 0.56 Nov Dec. Total -

Table 18--Percent probability of joint occurrence of windspeed and direction at 1300 P.s.t.

REFERENCES
Deeming, John E., Burgan, Robert E.; Cohen, Jack D. The National Fire-Danger Rating System--1978. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-39. Ogden, UT: Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture; 1977. 63 p. Furman, R. William; Brink, Glen E. The National Fire Weather Data Library: what it is and how to use it. Gen. Tech. Rep. RM-19. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture; 1975. 8 p. Main, William A.; Straub, Robert J.; Paananen, Donna M. FIREFAMILY: fire planning with historic weather data. Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-73. St. Paul, MN: North Central Forest Experiment Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture; 1982. 31 p.

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Ryan, Bill C. Potential fire behavior in California: an atlas and guide for forest and brushland managers. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-77. Berkeley, CA: Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agri­ culture; 1984. 15 p. Potential fire characteristics can be estimated as functions of weather, fuel, and terrain slope. Such information is needed by forest and other land managers-­ especially for anticipating fire suppression needs and planning prescribed burns. To provide this information, an Atlas has been developed for California. The Atlas includes statistical analyses of spread component, burning index, ignition component, temperature, relative humidity, dead fuel moisture, live woody fuel moisture, live herbaceous fuel moisture, precipitation, windspeed and direction for 200 fire-danger rating stations in California. Charts and information for one of the stations included in the Atlas--Mount Hebron in northern California--serve as an example of this application. Retrieval Terms: fire management, prescribed burning, fuel moisture, forest climatol­ ogy, potential fire characteristics