Accelerating Solar Energy in New York in New York

December 15, 2010 D b 15 2010

Cornell ILR

Kamen Family Home – Binghamton, NY

21 Pine Trees - each 70 years old & 50’ tall, t ll lined the driveway & surrounded the h th house

Force III - 3rd longest Tornado in recorded history
May 31, 1998 31

Before

After

“ Iʹd put my money on the sun  and solar energy.  and solar energy What a source of power!  I hope we donʹt have to wait till  oil and coal run out  oil and coal run out before we tackle that.“

Thomas Edison Th Edi
9

Available Energy Sources
Natural Gas 1,8 25‐70
per year

WIND1,2

SOLAR 23,000 per year
10

Waves11,3 0.2‐2

215
total

Petroleum 1,8 OTEC1,4 3 ‐11 per year 240
total

World energy use
16 TW‐yr per year Biomass 1,5 2 – 6 per year Uranium 1,9 90‐300
Total

HYDRO 1,6 3 – 4 per year 3 – 4 per year TIDES 1 0.3 per year Geothermal1,7 0.3 – 2 per year COAL 1,8 900
Total  reserve

http://www.asrc.cestm.albany.edu/perez/

© R. Perez et al.

Surgeon Su eo Architect A hit t Politician P liti i

11

Populist Republican Congressman

“It’s amazing how innocent & ignorant the American public is about Energy. the American public is about Energy ” “They are very well represented in  Congress” g

12

“C” Changes 5000 MWs PV + 2000 MWs Solar Thermal
I a a io Installation Contractors o a o Manufacturers Service Providers NYS Assemblyman & Senators Public Service Commission NYSERDA Environmental Organizations IBEW Sheetmetal Workers Plumbers & Pipefitters

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800+ new jobs in 2010 800 j b i 2010

Sunwize Atlantis Energy Atl ti E Globe Specialty Metals Precision Flow Spectrawatt SolarTech Renewables Prism Solar Prism Solar
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Solar Applicances (lighting, ventilation,  (li hti til ti LEDs) Net Zero Energy gy Widetronix Armistead Mechanical Armistead Mechanical Perreca Electric

Solar in NY State

NY State boasts a solid foundation of  solar installations upon which  future growth will be built. future growth will be built

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NYS Office of General Service (OGS) Wallkill C W llkill Correctional Facility ti l F ilit 2010 Best NYS Government Solar Project

Silicon Solar
Solar Thermal Hot Water 48 SunMaxx 30 Evacuated Tube Collectors Lifetime Savings: 160,000 gal OIL

United States General Services Agency (GSA) Jacob K. J it F d J b K Javits Federal Building 26 Federal Plaza NYC l B ildi F d l Pl 2010 Best Federal Government PV Project in NYS

Mercury Solar /ConEd Solutions
PV 11 KW NYC Building Integrated Lifetime Savings: 242,000 KWh

Fort Drum 2010 B t F d l G Best Federal Government t Solar Thermal Project in NYS

SolarWall by Conserval
Solar Thermal Air Heating 4 MWs Solar Thermal Lifetime Savings: 8.7 Million Therms

NY Institute of Technology Electric C El t i Carport PV Ch t Charging Station i St ti 2010 PV Innovation

EmPower
10 KW Lifetime Savings: 220,000 KWh

The Wild Center NY’s Natural Hi t NY’ N t l History M Museum of th Adi f the Adirondack’s d k’ 2010 Solar Thermal Innovation

CSA Architects
54,000 ft2 building Wood Pellets + Solar Thermal

Smithtown Schools 2010 B t R f M Best Roof Mount PV Project t P j t

LIPA
PV 110 KW Lifetime Savings: 2.4 Million KWh

Town of Esopus 2010 B t G Best Ground M d Mount PV Project t P j t

Alteris
PV 77 KW Tracking Lifetime Savings: 2.1 Million KWh

Rockland County Co‐Compost Facility
14,100  Gallons Oil / Year

$1.00/Gallon
20+ Years 20+ Years

Ronnybrook Farm Dairy 2010 B t G Best Ground M d Mount S l Thermal Project t Solar Th lP j t

EarthKind Solar
Solar Thermal Hot Water H tW t 30 Flat Plate Collectors Lifetime Savings: 50,000 Gallons Oil

Hudson Valley Clean Energy Rhinebeck  h b k Net Zero Commercial Building Hudson Valley Clean  Hudson Valley Clean Energy ‐ ‐ ‐ PV Geothermal Solar Thermal Hot Water Hot Water Net Zero Energy Net Zero Carbon Net Zero Carbon Zero Fossil Fuels 

Hamptons Green Alliance (HGA) House Southampton  h Net Zero Residential Building Sunstream USA ‐ ‐ ‐ PV Geothermal h l Solar Thermal Hot Water Net Zero Energy Net Zero Carbon Zero Fossil Fuels 

Solar PV
HISTORICAL APPROXIMATIONS

PV
NYSERDA & LIPA per Year

2006 1

2007 3

2008 6

2009 12 

2010 22 

CUMULATIVE:

1

4

10

22 

44 

RPS Geo Bal ARRA LIPA
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$24M/Yr  $24M/Y + $30M/ Yr $16M $ $23M +   50 MWs 100 MWs

NYPA

Solar PV
Total Annual $ NYSERDA LIPA Geo Balance Total: $ / Watt Total Watts Installed $ $ NYS Market 25,000,000 $                     1.75           14,285,714 $                     5.00 $        71,428,571 $ $          , , $ , , $ $ , , $          23,390,000 $                       1.75            13,365,714 $                       5.50 $          73,511,429 $          30,000,000 $                       1.00            30,000,000 $                       5.00 $      150,000,000           57 651 429 57,651,429 $      294,940,000 $ 294 940 000

~57 MWs / Year $300 Millon Industry + LIPA LIPA
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50 MWs 50 MW 100 MWs

+ NYPA

Genesis of the DOE initiative:

30

NYS Electricity Prices

How Much do you and your residents  How Much do you and your residents pay for Electricity Today? Statewide Average: 16 cents / kwh

Downstate: 21+ cents / kwh Downstate: 21+ cents / kwh

Solar Electric (PV ‐ Photovoltaics) 2010 Solar PV  2010 Solar PV Average Family Net Zero (9 KW) Installed Price:

$50,000

Solar Electric (PV ‐ Photovoltaics)
20 Year Generation:  @ 10,000 kwh/year  = ~200,000 KWhs or

25 Cents per KWh 
for 20 Years  BEFORE Tax Credits

Solar Electric (PV ‐ Photovoltaics)
WITH Residential 30% Federal Tax Credit + NYS $5,000 Tax Credit =

15 cents/ kwh  15 t /k h
for 20 years f 20

Solar Thermal
Solar Thermal Energy  is used throughout the world  is used throughout the world to pre‐heat Hot Water & Space Heat  before using fossil fuels. b f i f il f l Solar Heat & Hot Water  Solar Heat & Hot Water is generally  50% ‐ 70% less expensive  50% 70% l i than PV with 4 times the Carbon Offset h h b Off

The Solar Heat Opportunity
• New York City has the densest concentration of  electric power in the world, and 80% of all carbon  electric power in the world, and 80% of all carbon emissions are from buildings. • Even in NYC ‐ more than HALF the energy is  used for heat & hot water! The percentage is  used for heat & hot water! The percentage is higher everywhere else. • In an average NYS residence: 1/3 of the fuel is for  hot water hot water

Solar Hot Water
20 Year Generation  @ 150 Gallons Oil / year   @ 150 Gallons Oil / year = ~3,000 Gallons of Oil

$2.67 per Gallon $2.67 per Gallon
for 20 Years  for 20 Years

BEFORE Tax Credits Tax Credits

Solar Hot Water
WITH Residential 30% Federal Tax Credit + NYS Tax Credit =

$1.20 / Gallon  $1 20 / G ll
for 20 years f 20

Solar THERMAL
HISTORICAL APPROXIMATIONS 2006 NYSERDA & LIPA per Year NYSERDA & LIPA per Year 0.5 2007 0.5 2008 2009 1                 5

CUMULATIVE: ANNUAL % GROWTH RATE

        0.5

            1

            2 100%

            7 400%

2,000 MW Solar THERMAL Goal: by 2020
2010 NYSERDA & LIPA per Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020                   8                 12                 19                 31                 48                 76               119               188               295               465            731

CUMULATIVE:
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          15           27           47           77        126        201        321        509        804    1,269   2,000 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57%

ANNUAL % GROWTH RATE

NYSEIA 2020  Solar Thermal Goals

•Increase the total amount of installed NYS ST  capacity from 8 MW to 2000MW p y •Annual Installations:
—2010:   500 Systems 2010: 500 Systems —2020:   83,000 Systems

•Increase market to $600 million annually •Total ST Projected Sales 2010‐2020: $2.6B oa oje e a e $

Car

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Electricity

Car

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Electricity

Car

Telephone

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Electricity Color  TV Telephone

Car

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Electricity Color  TV Telephone

Microwave

Car

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DVD  Players 

Personal  Computers Cell  C ll Phone Video Games

Digital Cameras Camera Phones Home Networks DVD  Recorders  MP 3 Players

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1,600 

1,400 

1,200  750 MWs by 2015, 2000 by 2020, 5000 by 2025 1,000  Consistent Growth to 2000 MWs by 2020 800  Consistent Growth to 5000 MWs by 2025 Consistent Growth to 5000 MWs by 2025 600  Staggered Growth Scenario ‐ 25%, 30%, 40%  Staggered Growth Scenario ‐ 40%, 30%, 20%  Staggered Growth Scenario Goals: 500 MWs,  2000 MWs, 5000 MWs

400 

200 

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NYS Solar Coalition Annual PV Targets ‐ To 5,000  NYS Solar Coalition Annual PV Targets ‐ To 5 000 MWs 
Utilities LIPA NYPA TOTAL

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Confidential and Proprietary,  2024 ©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc. 2025 Do not distribute or copy

52 77 103 155 222 310 439 619 877 1,187 1,445 1 445 1,858 2,374 3,096

103 119 134 155 181 206 232 284 335 387 490 619 800 1,032

103 119 134 155 181 206 232 284 335 387 490 619 800 1,032

258  58 315  372  464  583  722  903  1,187  1 187 1,548  1,961  2,425  2,425 3,096  3,973  5,160 

NY Solar Jobs Act
Cumulative Economic Impacts (through 2025) p ( g ) New Jobs Economic Output 22,198 $20 billion

Average Residential Rate Impact:
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39¢ per month

Poster at Jon Stewart “Rally for Sanity”

“We’re making enemies We re making enemies Faster than we can Faster than we can Kill them.” Kill the ”
50

ACORE 2010 Conference  Renewable Energy Phase II Renewable Energy Phase II

US Navy Vice Admiral  US N Vi Ad i l Dennis McGinn (Retired)

Jo Jobs  National Security y
51

Thomas P. Grumbly,  Thomas P Grumbly Vice President,  Lockheed Martin

•Commitment C it t •Execution •Long Term Market Signals
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NYSEIA’S 2011 Goals

• Create fully funded 5,000MV PV program • E u e u e of NYS RPS I e ti e P o a fo ele t i Ensure success of NYS RPS Incentive Program for electric  hot water users ‐ $4.3M per year thru 2015 Build support for 2,000 MVs of ST, focusing on oil and  • Build support for 2,000 MVs of ST, focusing on oil and natural gas programs • Grow NYSEIA’s membership, expand legislative and  regulatory impact l • Governor Elect Cuomo supports Solar Energy

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