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5M USD Donate Now [Hide] Solar variation From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Last 30 years of solar variability Solar variations refer here to changes in the amount of total solar radiation and its spectral distribution. There are periodic components to these variations, the principal one being the 11-year solar cycle (or sunspot cycle), as well as aperiodic fluctuations.[1] Solar activity has been measured by satellites during recent decades and estimated using 'proxy' variables in prior times. Scientists studying climate change are interested in understanding the effects of variations in the total and spectral solar irradiance on the Earth and its climate. The variations in total solar irradiance remained at or below the threshold of detectability until the satellite era, although the small fraction in ultra-violet wavelengths varies by a few percent. Total solar output is now measured to vary (over the last three 11-year sunspot cycles) by approximately 0.1% [2][3][4] or about 1.3 W/m² peak-to-trough during the 11 year sunspot cycle. The amount of solar radiation received at the outer surface of Earth's atmosphere averages 1,366 watts per square meter (W/m²).[5][6][7] There are no direct measurements of the longer-term variation and interpretations of proxy measures of variations differ. On the low side North et al. report results suggesting ~ 0.1% variation over the last 2,000 years.[8] Others suggest the change has been ~ 0.2% increase in solar irradiance just since the 17th century.[9][10] The combination of solar variation and volcanic effects are likely to have contributed to climate change, for example during the Maunder Minimum. Apart from solar brightness variations, more subtle solar magnetic activity influences on climate from cosmic rays or the Sun's ultraviolet radiation cannot be excluded although confirmation is not at hand since physical models for such effects are still too poorly developed.[11]Contents [hide] 1 History of study into solar variations 2 Solar activity 2.1 Sunspots 2.2 Solar cycles 2.2.1 Predictions based on patterns 2.3 Solar irradiance of Earth and its surface 2.3.1 Milankovitch cycle variations 3 Solar interactions with Earth 3.1 Changes in total irradiance 3.2 Changes in ultraviolet irradiance 3.3 Changes in the solar wind and the Sun's magnetic flux 3.4 Effects on clouds 4 Other effects due to solar variation

4.1 Geomagnetic effects 4.2 Solar proton events 4.3 Galactic cosmic rays 4.4 Cloud effects 4.5 Carbon-14 production 5 Global warming 5.1 Solar variation theory 5.2 Historical perspective 6 See also 7 References 7.1 General references 7.2 Footnotes 8 External links [edit] History of study into solar variations 400 year history of sunspot numbers. The longest recorded aspect of solar variations are changes in sunspots. The first record of sunspots dates to around 800 BC in China and the oldest surviving drawing of a sunspot dates to 1128. In 1610, astronomers began using the telescope to make observations of sunspots and their motions. Initial study was focused on their nature and behavior.[12] Although the physical aspects of sunspots were not identified until the 1900s, observations continued. Study was hampered during the 1600s and 1700s due to the low number of sunspots during what is now recognized as an extended period of low solar activity, known as the Maunder Minimum. By the 1800s, there was a long enough record of sunspot numbers to infer periodic cycles in sunspot activity. In 1845, Princeton University professors Joseph Henry and Stephen Alexander observed the Sun with a thermopile and determined that sunspots emitted less radiation than surrounding areas of the Sun. The emission of higher than average amounts of radiation later were observed from the solar faculae.[13] Around 1900, researchers began to explore connections between solar variations and weather on Earth. Of particular note is the work of Charles Greeley Abbot. Abbot was assigned by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) to detect changes in the radiation of the Sun. His team had to begin by inventing instruments to measure solar radiation. Later, when Abbot was head of the SAO, it established a solar station at Calama, Chile to complement its data from Mount Wilson Observatory. He detected 27 harmonic periods within the 273-month Hale cycles, including 7, 13, and 39 month patterns. He looked for connections to weather by means such as matching opposing solar trends during a month to opposing temperature and precipitation trends in cities. With the advent of dendrochronology, scientists such as Waldo S. Glock attempted to connect variation in tree growth to periodic solar variations in the extant record and infer longterm secular variability in the solar constant from similar variations in millennial-scale chronologies.[14]

including changes in sunspot number and cosmogenic isotope production.Statistical studies that correlate weather and climate with solar activity have been popular for centuries. Various studies have been made using sunspot number (for which records extend over hundreds of years) as a proxy for solar output (for which good records only extend for a few decades). 2001). There had been some suggestion that variations in the solar diameter might cause variations in output. the overall effect is that more sunspots means a brighter sun. Sunspot activity has been measured using the Wolf number for about 300 years.[16] [edit] Solar activity [edit] Sunspots Graph showing proxies of solar activity.[19] Modulation of the solar luminosity by magnetically active regions was not confirmed until satellite measurements of total solar irradiance began in the 1980s. about 0. Faculae are slightly brighter areas that form around sunspot groups as the flow of energy to the photosphere is re-established and both the normal flow and the sunspot-blocked energy elevate the radiating 'surface' temperature.0.[2] Nimbus 7 (launched October 25.[15] They now often involve highdensity global datasets compiled from surface networks and weather satellite observations and/or the forcing of climate models with synthetic or observed solar variability to investigate the detailed processes by which the effects of solar variations propagate through the Earth's climate system. when William Herschel noted an apparent connection between wheat prices and sunspot records.[17][18] Correlations are now known to exist with decreases in luminosity caused by sunspots (generally < . ground instruments have been calibrated by comparison with highaltitude and orbital instruments. mostly from the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument on SOHO. Other proxy data — such as the abundance of cosmogenic isotopes — have been used to infer solar magnetic activity and thus likely brightness. But recent work. Also.001% (Dziembowski et al. This index (also known as the Zürich number) uses both the number of sunspots and the .. Scientists have speculated on possible relationships between sunspots and solar luminosity since the historical sunspot area record began in the 17th century. Researchers have combined present readings and factors to adjust historical data. 1980) detected that because the areas surrounding sunspots are brighter.05 %) caused both by faculae that are associated with active regions as well as the magnetically active 'bright network'. dating back at least to 1801.3 %) and increases (generally < + 0. shows these changes to be small. Sunspots are relatively dark areas on the radiating 'surface' (photosphere) of the Sun where intense magnetic activity inhibits convection and cools the photosphere. 1978) and the Solar Maximum Mission (launched February 14.

The Sun was at a similarly high level of magnetic activity for only ~10% of the past 11. The level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional — the last period of similar magnitude occurred over 8.[21] Solar activity events recorded in radiocarbon. 3500 BC. Sunspot numbers over the past 11. 5710 BC. 770 BC. 9170 BC. increases their magnetic field strength and makes them buoyant (see Babcock Model). 7520 BC. 11 years: Most obvious is a gradual increase and more rapid decrease of the number of sunspots over a period ranging from 9 to 12 years. 6400 BC. causing 'sunspots'.400 years.400 years.400 years have been reconstructed using dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations. Period of equally high activity over 8. 2860 BC. 3340 BC. [edit] Solar cycles Solar cycles are cyclic changes in behavior of the Sun.300 year Hallstatt solar variation cycles. A 2003 study by Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu. Present period is on left. Finland found that sunspots had been more frequent since the 1940s than in the previous 1150 years. 3940 BC. 690 AD.000 years ago. 5990 BC. Solar activity events and approximate datesEvent Start End Oort minimum (see Medieval Warm Period) 1040 1080 Medieval maximum (see Medieval Warm Period) 1100 1250 Wolf minimum 1280 1350 Spörer Minimum 1450 1550 Maunder Minimum 1645 1715 Dalton Minimum 1790 1820 Modern Maximum 1950 2004 Modern Minimum 2004 ongoing A list of historical Grand minima of solar activity [22] includes also Grand minima ca.[20] Reconstruction of solar activity over 11. 7040 BC.number of groups of sunspots to compensate for variations in measurement. 4230 BC. 7310 BC. 5620 BC. the photosphere. cooling their region of the photosphere. called the Schwabe cycle. 6220 BC. 4330 BC. 3630 BC.000 years ago marked. Differential rotation of the sun's convection zone (as a function of latitude) consolidates magnetic flux tubes. 5260 BC. Values since 1900 not shown. 5460 BC. As they rise through the solar atmosphere they partially block the convective flow of energy. named after Heinrich Schwabe. only the 11 and 22 year cycles are clear in the observations. The Sun's apparent surface. radiates more actively when there are more sunspots. Many possible patterns have been suggested. 360 BC. 1390 BC. and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode. 2. 8220 BC. Satellite monitoring of solar luminosity .

and that the thermal inertial induced a lag of approximately 2. named after George Ellery Hale. 1990). mineral layers created in the Castile Formation show cycles of 2.[26] There is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145±30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70±30 in 2023. Extrapolation suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near Little Ice Age conditions within the next 500 years. Braun. The magnetic field of the Sun reverses during each Schwabe cycle. de Vries cycle).[27] Because carbon-14 cycles are quasi periodic. 2009). 2.. or radiation in various frequencies. 131.3 % on a 10 day timescale when large groups of sunspots rotate across the Earth's view and increase by as much as 0. et al. et al. 232.300 years: Hallstatt cycle [1][2] 6000 years (Xapsos and Burke. (2005) 210 years: Suess cycle (a.241 years (Damon and Sonnett.1 %. The sensitivity of climate to cyclical variations in solar forcing will be higher for longer cycles due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. is the amount of sunlight which reaches the Earth. 805.500 years. Braun.since 1980 has shown there is a direct relationship between the solar activity (sunspot) cycle and luminosity with a solar cycle peak-to-peak amplitude of about 0. (2005). 87 years (70–100 years): Gleissberg cycle.a.[24] 22 years: Hale cycle. Scafetta and West (2005) found that the climate was 1. 385. so the magnetic poles return to the same state after two reversals.[25] [edit] Predictions based on patterns A simple model based on emulating harmonics by multiplying the basic 11-year cycle by powers of 2 produced results similar to Holocene behavior. Other patterns have been detected: In carbon-14: 105.[23] Luminosity has also been found to decrease by as much as 0. total radiation.k. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1. The equipment used might measure optical brightness..2 years in cyclic climate response in the temperature data. Damon and Sonett (1989) predict future climate:[28] Solar irradiance spectrum above atmosphere and at surface Solar irradiance. which acts to damp high frequencies.500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.5 times as sensitive to 22 year cyclical forcing relative to 11 year cyclical forcing. Historical estimates use various measurements and proxies.05 % for up to 6 months due to faculae associated with the large sunspot groups.Cycle length Cycle name Last positive . 504. 1991). or insolation. During the Upper Permian 240 million years ago. is thought to be an amplitude modulation of the 11-year Schwabe Cycle (Sonnett and Finney. 2. named after Wolfgang Gleißberg.

carbon-14 anomaly Next "warming" 232 --?-. There is some evidence that sunshine at the Earth's surface has been decreasing in the last 50 years (see global dimming) possibly caused by increased atmospheric pollution. The most recent significant event was an axial tilt of 24° during boreal summer at near the time of the Holocene climatic optimum. to avoid the confounding effects of changes within the atmosphere. are presently only of interest in the field of astronomy. Further information: Milankovitch cycles [edit] Solar interactions with Earth There are several hypotheses for how solar variations may affect Earth.05 % to 0. including the surface. [edit] Changes in total irradiance Total solar irradiance changes slowly on decadal and longer timescales. Measurements above the atmosphere are needed to determine variations in solar output.1%. global average changes are much smaller) in solar insolation over long periods. or changes in the latitudinal distribution of radiation. such as changes in the size of the Sun. These have caused variations of as much as 25% (locally. most recent reconstructions of total solar irradiance point to an only small increase of only about 0. The variation during recent activity cycles has been about 0.AD 1922 (cool) AD 2038 208 Suess AD 1898 (cool) AD 2002 88 Gleisberg AD 1986 (cool) AD 2030 [edit] Solar irradiance of Earth and its surface There are two common meanings: the radiation reaching the upper atmosphere the radiation reaching some point within the atmosphere. whilst over roughly the same timespan solar output has been nearly constant.1 % between Maunder Minimum and the present[30][31][32] . and clouds and dust also affect it. In contrast to older reconstructions [29] . [edit] Milankovitch cycle variations Some variations in insolation are not due to solar changes but rather due to the Earth moving closer or further from the Sun.[2] Variations corresponding to solar changes with periods of 9–13. and >100 years have been detected in sea-surface temperatures. 18–25. Various gases within the atmosphere absorb some solar radiation at different wavelengths. Some variations.

the volume larger than the Solar System filled with solar wind particles.7 times larger between 1760 and 1950. but significant effects are not obvious. The 30 hPa atmospheric pressure level has changed height in phase with solar activity during the last 4 solar cycles.5 percent from solar maxima to minima.[citation needed] Mediterranean core study of plankton detected a solar-related 11 year cycle.[citation needed] A laboratory experiment conducted by Henrik Svensmark at the Danish National Space Center was able to produce particles as a result of cosmic ray-like irradiation. leading to stratospheric heating and to poleward displacements in the stratospheric and tropospheric wind systems. The Sun's total magnetic flux rose by a factor of 1. though these particles do not resemble actual cloud condensation nuclei found in nature.[36] The Earth's albedo decreased by about 2. [edit] Effects on clouds Cosmic rays have been hypothesized to affect formation of clouds through possible effects on production of cloud condensation nuclei. as measured by lunar "Earthshine". As the solar coronal-source magnetic flux doubled during the past century. subsequent to this the correlation breaks down.[35] Energy changes in the UV wavelengths involved in production and loss of ozone have atmospheric effects. 10Be and 36Cl show changes tied to solar activity. and an increase 3. Observational evidence for such a relationship is inconclusive. Cosmogenic production of 14C.41 from 1964–1996 and by a factor of 2. UV irradiance increase causes higher ozone production. Similar reduction was measured by satellites during the previous cycle. Cosmic ray ionization in the upper atmosphere does change.[33][34] [edit] Changes in ultraviolet irradiance Ultraviolet irradiance (EUV) varies by approximately 1.One reconstruction from the ACRIM data show a 0.(ACRIM graphics) These display a high degree of correlation with solar magnetic activity as measured by Greenwich Sunspot Number.5% over 5 years during the most recent solar cycle. Variations in the solar wind affect the size and intensity of the heliosphere. 1983-1994 data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) showed that global low cloud formation was highly correlated with cosmic ray flux. A proxy study estimates that UV has increased by 3% since the Maunder Minimum.[37] . A considerable reduction in cloud cover is proposed.04% per decade trend of increased solar output between solar minima over the short span of the data set. [citation needed] [edit] Changes in the solar wind and the Sun's magnetic flux A more active solar wind and stronger magnetic field reduces the cosmic rays striking the Earth's atmosphere. the cosmicray flux has decreased by about 15%. for 200 to 300 nm UV.3 since 1901.

During such a solar proton event. the solar wind." which is an outflow of ionized particles. . Sudden changes can cause the intense disturbances in the Earth's magnetic fields which are called geomagnetic storms. cause variations in the particle and electromagnetic fields at the surface of the planet. penetrating the upper layers of our atmosphere where they produce additional ionization and may produce a significant increase in the radiation environment. and the Earth's magnetic field. Some of these particles spiral down Earth's magnetic field lines. GCR particles are the primary source of ionization in the troposphere above 1 km (below 1 km. [edit] Solar proton events Energetic protons can reach Earth within 30 minutes of a major flare's peak. A decrease in solar activity increases the GCR penetration of the troposphere and stratosphere. It has been speculated that a change in cosmic rays could cause an increase in certain types of clouds. [edit] Galactic cosmic rays Solar wind and magnetic field create heliosphere around solar system. Earth is showered in energetic solar particles (primarily protons) released from the flare site. affecting Earth's albedo. from the sun. and the Earth's atmosphere. the solar magnetic field. Extreme solar events can affect electrical devices. the Earth's magnetic field. The Earth's geomagnetic field. [edit] Geomagnetic effects Solar particles interact with Earth's magnetosphere The Earth's polar aurorae are visual displays created by interactions between the solar wind. mostly protons and electrons. and the solar magnetic field deflect galactic cosmic rays (GCR). altering the types of particles reaching the surface. Variations in any of these affect aurora displays. Weakening of the Sun's magnetic field is believed to increase the number of interstellar cosmic rays which reach Earth's atmosphere. and for the most influential events the liquid water in the oceanic atmosphere can diminish by as much as 7%. radon is a dominant source of ionization in many areas).A 2009 peer reviewed article investigating the effects of a Forbush decrease[38] found that low clouds contain less liquid water following Forbush decreases. the solar magnetosphere. [edit] Other effects due to solar variation Interaction of solar particles. An increase in solar activity (more sunspots) is accompanied by an increase in the "solar wind.

Carbon14 is produced in the upper atmosphere when cosmic ray bombardment of atmospheric nitrogen (14N) induces the Nitrogen to undergo β− decay. and albedo due to clouds. There is approximately a 60 year delay between sunspot levels and radiocarbon changes. low clouds. longer lived. and there also appear to be similar climate patterns occurring on this time scale.[39] However. The Hallstatt solar cycle length of approximately 2300 years is reflected by climatic Dansgaard-Oeschger events. [edit] Cloud effects Changes in ionization affect the abundance of aerosols that serve as the nuclei of condensation for cloud formation. Paradoxically. ionization levels potentially affect levels of condensation. relative humidity.000 years ago and decreased until 1. production of radiocarbon relative to recent wood can be measured and dated. the atmospheric 14C concentration is lower during sunspot maxima and higher during sunspot minima. Clouds formed from greater amounts of condensation nuclei are brighter. and some climate systems have delayed responses. Changes of 3–4% in cloudiness and concurrent changes in cloud top temperatures have been correlated to the 11 and 22 year solar (sunspot) cycles.000 years ago. with increased GCR levels during "antiparallel" cycles. UV or total irradiance variations) rather than directly to GCR changes. and some that do attribute it to other solar variability (e. By measuring the captured 14C in wood and counting tree rings.5–2%. In addition to variations in solar activity. increased solar activity results in a reduction of cosmic rays reaching the earth's atmosphere and reduces 14C production. Thus the cosmic ray intensity and carbon-14 production vary inversely to the general level of solar activity. The production of carbon-14 (radiocarbon: 14C) also is related to solar activity. thus transforming into an unusual isotope of Carbon with an atomic weight of 14 rather than the more common 12.[43] Therefore. [edit] Carbon-14 production Sunspot record (blue) with 14C (inverted).g. A reconstruction of the past 10. not all scientists accept this correlation as statistically significant.[41][42] Difficulties in interpreting such correlations include the fact that many aspects of solar variability change at similar times. the long term trends in carbon-14 production are influenced by changes in the Earth's geomagnetic field and by changes in carbon cycling within the . Several studies of GCR and cloud cover variations have found positive correlation at latitudes greater than 50° and negative correlation at lower latitudes.[40] Global average cloud cover change has been found to be 1.Levels of GCRs have been indirectly recorded by their influence on the production of carbon-14 and beryllium-10. and likely to produce less precipitation.[39] As a result. This is because cosmic rays are partially excluded from the Solar System by the outward sweep of magnetic fields in the solar wind.000 years shows that the 14C production was much higher during the mid-Holocene 7. The 80–90 year solar Gleissberg cycles appear to vary in length depending upon the lengths of the concurrent 11 year solar cycles.

because the stochastic response increases with the cycle amplitude. find that there "is considerable evidence for solar influence on the Earth’s pre-industrial climate and the Sun may well have been a factor in post-industrial climate change in the first half of the last century. Lean et al..[51] who claim that solar variability is a major.." More recently.." but that "Solar radiative forcing of climate is reduced by a factor of 5 when the background component is omitted from historical reconstructions of total solar irradiance .[54] . Please improve this article if you can. secular) solar irradiance changes . with little likelihood of significant shifts in solar output over long periods of time."[49] A paper by Benestad and Schmidt [50] concludes that "the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980. growing empirical evidence for the Sun's role in climate change on multiple time scales including the 11-year cycle".biosphere (particularly those associated with changes in the extent of vegetation since the last ice age). Under this scenario the Sun might have contributed 50% of the observed global warming since 1900. Based on correlations between specific climate and solar forcing reconstructions. and sunspot activity since 1850 The scientific consensus is that solar variations do not play a major role in determining present-day observed climate change.[45] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report states that the measured magnitude of recent solar variation is much smaller than the effect due to greenhouse gases.. "changes in terrestrial proxies of solar activity (such as the 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotopes and the aa geomagnetic index) can occur in the absence of long-term (i.)[53]. a study and review of existing literature published in Nature in September 2006 suggests that the evidence is solidly on the side of solar brightness having relatively little effect on global climate." but that "over the past 20 years. temperature.. 2007." They conclude that because of this. not because there is an actual secular irradiance change.e." This paper specifically criticise the methodology and contradict the conclusions of a Scafetta and West study..[46] In 2002. (June 2009) See also: Global warming CO2.[44] [edit] Global warming This article may require cleanup to meet Wikipedia's quality standards. all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth’s climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.g. they argue that a "realistic climate scenario is the one described by a large preindustrial secular variability (e. if not dominant climate forcing. [47] stated that while "There is .This suggests that general circulation model (GCM) simulations of twentieth century warming may overestimate the role of solar irradiance variability.[11][48] Lockwood and Fröhlich. "long-term climate change may appear to track the amplitude of the solar activity cycles...)[52] with the total solar irradiance experiencing low secular variability (as the one shown by Wang et al. the paleoclimate temperature reconstruction by Moberg et al.

Sami Solanki.[29] Recent research based on empirical analysis of data from satellite monitors of TSI. according to our latest knowledge on the variations of the solar magnetic field. The UV component varies by more than the total. [55] This contrasts with the results from global circulation models that predict solar forcing of climate through direct radiative forcing is too small to explain a significant contribution. but it was impossible to say which had the greater impact. notably those by Svensmark and by Lassen . Recent variation pattern used after 2000. "Just how large this role [of solar variation] is. must still be investigated. Phy. Germany said: The sun has been at its strongest over the past 60 years and may now be affecting global temperatures. National Academy of Sciences study. Sunspot and temperature reconstructions from proxy data Although correlations often can be found. Effects mediated by changes in cosmic rays (which are affected by the solar wind. the director of the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Katlenburg-Lindau. Variations in the ultraviolet component having an effect."[58] The theories have usually represented one of three types: Solar irradiance changes directly affecting the climate. this might explain a larger solar signal in climate. Atmos. which is affected by the solar output) such as changes in cloud cover.[57] Nevertheless. so if UV were for some reason having a disproportionate effect.. This is generally considered unlikely. Solanki agrees with the scientific consensus that the marked upswing in temperatures since about 1980 is attributable to human activity. Many of these speculative accounts have fared badly over time.. solar proxy data and lower tropospheric temperature indicates that TSI variations during the industrial era have also contributed significantly to global warming. [edit] Solar variation theory Variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) were found to be the most likely cause of significant climate change prior to the industrial era by a U. and in a paper "Solar activity and terrestrial climate: an analysis of some purported correlations" (J. the significant increase in the Earth’s temperature since 1980 is indeed to be ascribed to the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide. and Solar-Terr.[56] The relative significance of solar variability and other forcings of climate change during the industrial era is an area of ongoing research. since.Solar forcing 1850–2050 used in a NASA GISS climate model. as the amplitudes of the variations in solar irradiance are much too small to have the observed relation absent some amplification process.S. the mechanism behind these correlations is a matter of speculation. 2003 p801–812) Peter Laut demonstrates problems with some of the most popular.. the brighter sun and higher levels of so-called "greenhouse gases" both contributed to the change in the Earth's temperature.

The graphs are still widely referred to in the literature.[62] In addition. however.(below)."[60] On May 6. They predicted that continued greenhouse gas emissions would cause additional future temperature increases "at a rate similar to that observed in recent decades". Their study looked at both "natural forcing agents" (solar variations and volcanic emissions) as well as "anthropogenic forcing" (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols). the study notes "uncertainties in historical forcing" . has been among the supporters of the theory that changes in the sun "can account for major climate changes on Earth for the past 300 years." Stott's team found that combining all of these factors enabled them to closely simulate global temperature changes throughout the 20th century. including part of the recent surge of global warming. the sensational agreement with the recent global warming. In 1991. Damon and Laut report in Eos[36] that the apparent strong correlations displayed on these graphs have been obtained by incorrect handling of the physical data. which drew worldwide attention. 2000. Peter Stott and other researchers at the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom published a paper in which they reported on the most comprehensive model simulations to date of the climate of the 20th century. Initially. In the latter half of the century.4 °C since 1980.[36] Note that the prior link to "graph" is one such example of this. has totally disappeared. This relationship appeared to account for nearly 80 per cent of the measured temperature changes over this period (see graph[59]).. it fails to explain a rise of 0. "The curves diverge after 1980. the authors and other researchers keep presenting the old misleading graph. argue that when the graphs are corrected for filtering errors. Damon and Laut. they used sunspot and temperature measurements from 1861 to 1989. balanced by some cooling due to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols." Thejll said. Nevertheless. with no evidence for significant solar effects. however. and their misleading character has not yet been generally recognized. Knud Lassen of the Danish Meteorological Institute in Copenhagen and his colleague Eigil Friis-Christensen found a strong correlation between the length of the solar cycle and temperature changes throughout the northern hemisphere. an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics."[61] Later that same year. They found that "solar effects may have contributed significantly to the warming in the first half of the century although this result is dependent on the reconstruction of total solar irradiance that is used. we find that anthropogenic increases in greenhouses gases are largely responsible for the observed warming.. but later found that climate records dating back four centuries supported their findings. Something else is acting on the climate. New Scientist magazine reported that Lassen and astrophysicist Peter Thejll had updated Lassen's 1991 research and found that while the solar cycle still accounts for about half the temperature rise since 1900. It should be noted that their solar forcing included "spectrally-resolved changes in solar irradiance" and not the indirect effects mediated through cosmic rays for which there is still no accepted mechanism — these ideas are still being fleshed out.. It has the fingerprints of the greenhouse effect. Sallie Baliunas. "and it's a startlingly large deviation.

C."[67]) [edit] See alsoSolar cycle Sunlight Sunspot Sunspot cycle List of solar cycles [edit] References [edit] General references Abbot.[63] A graphical representation[64] of the relationship between natural and anthropogenic factors contributing to climate change appears in "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis". Willson. of The International Conference on Global Warming and The Next Ice Age. "The Sun's role in Climate Changes" (PDF).S. Weart in The Discovery of Global Warming (2003) writes: The study of [sun spot] cycles was generally popular through the first half of the century. An example was a highly credible forecast of a dry spell in Africa during the sunspot minimum of the early 1930s. "Solar Variation. Nova Scotia.. Hudson (1991). Proc. maybe storminess in New England would.[66] [edit] Historical perspective Physicist and historian Spencer R. When the period turned out to be wet.1073/pnas. G. PNAS 56 (6): 1627– 1634. If rainfall in England didn't fit the cycle. especially among British meteorologists who witnessed the discomfiture of some of their most respected superiors. A Weather Element" (PDF). past natural forcing may still be having a delayed warming effect.— in other words.. most likely due to the oceans. Governments had collected a lot of weather data to play with and inevitably people found correlations between sun spot cycles and select weather patterns." Even in the 1960s he said.S.[65] Stott's 2003 work mentioned in the model section above largely revised his assessment. a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Retrieved 2005-0221. "The Sun and Climate". Geological Survey Fact Sheet 0095-00. Retrieved 2005-02-21. . Nature 351: 42–44. (1966). Richard C. Halifax. 19–24 August 2001.1627.6. doi:10. U. a meteorologist later recalled "the subject of sunspots and weather relationships fell into dispute. and found a significant solar contribution to recent warming. Sooner or later though every prediction failed. "The Sun's luminosity over a complete solar cycle". although still smaller (between 16 and 36%) than that of the greenhouse gases.1038/351042a0. "For a young [climate] researcher to entertain any statement of sun-weather relationships was to brand oneself a crank. Respected scientists and enthusiastic amateurs insisted they had found patterns reliable enough to make predictions. H.56. doi:10.

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