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Canada

Federal Vote Intentions


Canadians’ attitudes about privacy
and work restrictions
12th May 2020
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of With 20 years of political experience in all three
a survey conducted between May 6th and 7th, levels of government, President and CEO Quito
2020 among a sample of 1404 adults, 18 years Maggi is a respected commentator on international
of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was public affairs.
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is Research has provided accurate snapshots of
intended to represent the voting population of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
Canada. government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
and was sponsored by iPolitics. accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
The sampling frame was derived from both the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
a national telephone directory compiled by is a member of the World Association for Public
Mainstreet Research from various commerically Opinion Research and meets international and
available sources and random digit dialing. The Canadian publication standards.
part of the survey that dialed from the directory was
conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian CONTACT INFORMATION
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, In Toronto:
respondents were asked the additional question Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
of what region of the country they resided in. joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.6% and is Find us online at:
accurate 19 times out of 20. www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
(full methodology appears at the end of this facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
report)
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

• The Liberals have opened a large lead over the Conservatives since we last polled in March.
• Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 44.3% support,
while the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer have 29.4%, the NDP led by Jagmeet Singh has
11.5%. In comparison, the Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 5.8% nationally, with
24.8% in Quebec. The Greens led by Jo-Ann Roberts has 5.9%.
• The same regional differences that we have noticed in our previous polling have become
even more exacerbated, with the Liberals near or over 50% in the Atlantic provinces, Quebec, and
Ontario.
• There is a massive difference between genders in terms of voting intention. While the
Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied among men, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by
nearly 30% among women.
• The Conservatives are leading the Liberals among 18-34s, but this is likely due to the NDP
and the Greens splitting the progressive vote with the Liberals in this age cohort.
• Case in point, the NDP and the Greens post their best numbers among the 18-34.

• The poll also asked which potential restrictions Canadians think are acceptable if and when
the economy re-opens.
• Generally speaking, Canadians think that most restrictions are acceptable, with the very
notable exception of being asked by the government to download an app on one’s smartphone to
track movement (57% opposed).
• Men are 5% less likely to find this measure acceptable than women. Also, mandatory
tracking app downloading is especially unacceptable to respondents under the age of 35, and
those living in Quebec.
• Interestingly enough, Ontario is the only region where respondents find the idea of having
an app track one’s movements acceptable (51.6%).
• As a whole, Canadians generally find other restrictions acceptable. They are firmly in favour
of the following;
1. Your employer asking you to continue to work from home while some of your co-workers
are allowed to return to your workplace (79.2% in favour)
2. Your employer or a government official asking you to wear a mask in the workplace (80.2%
in favour)
3. Your employer or a government official taking your temperature daily before you are
allowed to enter your workplace (75.5% in favour)
4. Your employer asking you to maintain at least two metres apart from your co-worker (83.1%
in favour)
5. A public transit employee allowing you onto a bus, train, or subway only if you are wearing a
mask (75.6% in favour)
All Voters
If an election were held today, which party would you vote for?

38.8% 38.8%

All Voters
0.8%
2.8%

4.9%
Decided and Leaning
All Voters 9.5% 25.8%
4.9%

8% 1.1%
3%
1.9%
5.9%
Liberals Conservatives Bloc Québécois
2.5% NDP Greens People's Party Another Party
5%
11.5% Undecided
36.9%

9.5% 43.3%

5.8% All Voters


Decided and Leaning
6.2%

29.4% 30%

Liberals Conservatives Bloc Québécois NDP Greens

Liberals Conservatives Bloc Québécois


People's Party NDP Party Greens
Another People's Party
Undecided Another Party
We would know like to ask you about potential
restrictions that Canadians might face when the
economy is reopened as means to stop the further
spread of COVID-19. Please tell us if if you think it is
acceptable or not.

The government asking you to download


an app on your smartphone to track who
42.6% 57.4%
you might come into contact with,
otherwise known as contact tracing

Your employer asking you to continue to


work from home while some of your
79.2% 20.8%
co-workers are allowed to return to your
workplace

Your employer or a government o cial


asking you to wear a mask in the 80.2% 19.8%
workplace

Your employer or a government o cial


taking your temperature daily before you 75.5% 24.5%
are allowed to enter your workplace

Your employer asking you to maintain at


least two metres apart from your 83.1% 16.9%
co-worker

A public transit employee only allowing


you onto a bus, train, or subway if you are 75.6% 24.4%
wearing a mask

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Acceptable Unacceptable
Breakout Tables
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(All Voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 38.8% 32.4% 45.1% 27% 38.1% 43.8% 49.2% 24.8% 19.7% 25% 46% 44.4% 51.5%
Conservative, Scheer 25.8% 32% 19.7% 28.8% 26.8% 25.4% 20.7% 30% 53.9% 41.5% 22.3% 12.8% 20%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 1.6% 6.7% 4.6% 7.8% - - - - 21% -
NDP, Singh 9.5% 9.3% 9.8% 16.3% 10.7% 4.7% 5.2% 14.8% 8.7% 15.2% 10% 4.7% 9%
Green, Roberts 4.9% 5.6% 4.2% 7.4% 3.9% 4.5% 3.1% 10.9% 2.2% 2.4% 5.2% 2.5% 6.4%
People's Party, Bernier 2.8% 3.8% 1.7% 3.9% 2.3% 3.1% 1.2% 5.6% 5% - 2.7% 1% 2.2%
Another Party 0.8% 1.4% 0.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 1.1% 2.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% -
Undecided 12.5% 10.6% 14.3% 13.8% 10.6% 13.4% 11.8% 11.1% 8.1% 15% 13.8% 13% 10.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1404 696 708 183 344 450 427 177 163 104 516 355 89
Weighted Frequency 1404 695 709 390 352 387 275 191 159 91 538 328 96

(Leaning Voters With Undecided Totals)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 40.4% 33.6% 47.1% 28.2% 39.8% 45.4% 51.8% 26.3% 20.2% 28.3% 47.9% 46.2% 52.2%
Conservative, Scheer 27.5% 33.1% 22.1% 29.9% 28.4% 28.2% 22.1% 32.9% 55.5% 44.5% 24.6% 13.1% 20%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 5.4% 5.1% 5.7% 2.2% 6.7% 5.5% 8.3% - - - - 23.1% -
NDP, Singh 10.7% 10% 11.5% 19% 11.9% 5.2% 5.4% 15.4% 9.1% 18.8% 11.2% 6.4% 9%
Green, Roberts 5.5% 6.2% 4.8% 7.9% 5.2% 5% 3.1% 11.5% 2.2% 2.4% 6% 2.7% 8.7%
People's Party, Bernier 2.8% 3.8% 1.8% 3.9% 2.3% 3.3% 1.2% 5.6% 5.0% - 2.9% 1% 2.2%
Another Party 1.1% 1.9% 0.3% 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% 1.1% 2.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% -
Undecided 6.5% 6.4% 6.6% 7.2% 4.7% 7.0% 7.1% 5.5% 5.6% 5.2% 6.8% 7.0% 7.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1404 696 708 183 344 450 427 177 163 104 516 355 89
Weighted Frequency 1404 695 709 390 352 387 275 191 159 91 538 328 96

(Decided And Leaning Voters)


Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 43.3% 35.9% 50.6% 30.4% 41.8% 48.9% 55.8% 27.9% 21.4% 29.7% 51.3% 49.7% 56.6%
Conservative, Scheer 29.4% 35.3% 23.6% 32.2% 29.7% 30.3% 23.7% 34.9% 58.8% 47 26.4% 14.1% 22%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 5.8% 5.4% 6.2% 2.4% 7.1% 5.9% 8.9% - - - - 24.8% -
NDP, Singh 11.5% 11% 12.3% 21% 12.4% 5.5% 5.8% 16.3% 9.6% 19.9% 12.0% 6.8% 10%
Green, Roberts 5.9% 6.6% 5.1% 8.6% 5.4% 5% 3.4% 12.1% 2.3% 2.5% 6% 2.9% 9.4%
People's Party, Bernier 3% 4.1% 2% 4.2% 2.4% 3.6% 1.3% 5.9% 5.3% - 3.1% 1% 2.4%
Another Party 1.1% 2.0% 0.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 1.2% 2.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% -
Unweighted Frequency 1232 626 606 158 308 389 377 158 150 86 444 315 79
Weighted Frequency 1232 610 622 343 309 339 242 168 139 80 472 288 85
We would know like to ask you about potential restrictions that Canadians
might face when the economy is reopened as means to stop the further
spread of COVID-19. Please tell us if if you think it is acceptable or not.

The government asking you to download an app on your smartphone to


track who you might come into contact with, otherwise known as contact
tracing
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Acceptable 42.6% 39.7% 45.4% 33.9% 43.6% 46.8% 47.6% 32% 34.5% 40.7% 51.6% 36.3% 49.3%
Not Acceptable 57.4% 60.3% 54.6% 66.1% 56.4% 53.2% 52.4% 68% 65.5% 59.3% 48.4% 63.7% 50.7%
Unweighted Frequency 1404 696 708 183 344 450 427 177 163 104 516 355 89
Weighted Frequency 1404 695 709 390 352 387 275 191 159 91 538 328 96

Your employer asking you to continue to work from home while some of
your co-workers are allowed to return to your workplace
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Acceptable 79.2% 80.2% 78.2% 77.1% 84.4% 80.2% 74.1% 74.7% 72.8% 83.4% 79.1% 85.4% 73.9%
Not Acceptable 20.8% 19.8% 21.8% 22.9% 15.6% 19.8% 25.9% 25.3% 27.2% 16.6% 20.9% 14.6% 26.1%
Unweighted Frequency 1404 696 708 183 344 450 427 177 163 104 516 355 89
Weighted Frequency 1404 695 709 390 352 387 275 191 159 91 538 328 96

Your employer or a government official asking you to wear a mask in the


workplace
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Acceptable 80.2% 77.9% 82.4% 73.5% 78.9% 83.6% 86.3% 75.2% 66% 78.4% 81.4% 85.8% 89.1%
Not Acceptable 19.8% 22.1% 17.6% 26.5% 21.1% 16.4% 13.7% 24.8% 34% 21.6% 18.6% 14.2% 10.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1404 696 708 183 344 450 427 177 163 104 516 355 89
Weighted Frequency 1404 695 709 390 352 387 275 191 159 91 538 328 96

Your employer or a government official taking your temperature daily


before you are allowed to enter your workplace
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Acceptable 75.5% 72.3% 78.7% 64.5% 79% 78.8% 82.2% 65.3% 59.1% 67.2% 79.8% 82.9% 81.7%
Not Acceptable 24.5% 27.7% 21.3% 35.5% 21% 21.2% 17.8% 34.7% 40.9% 32.8% 20.2% 17.1% 18.3%
Unweighted Frequency 1404 696 708 183 344 450 427 177 163 104 516 355 89
Weighted Frequency 1404 695 709 390 352 387 275 191 159 91 538 328 96
Your employer asking you to maintain at least two metres apart from your
co-worker
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Acceptable 83.1% 79.7% 86.3% 69.4% 84.9% 88.9% 91.9% 82.2% 70.5% 82.8% 84% 87.8% 84.5%
Not Acceptable 16.9% 20.3% 13.7% 30.6% 15.1% 11.1% 8.1% 17.8% 29.5% 17.2% 16% 12.2% 15.5%
Unweighted Frequency 1404 696 708 183 344 450 427 177 163 104 516 355 89
Weighted Frequency 1404 695 709 390 352 387 275 191 159 91 538 328 96

A public transit employee only allowing you onto a bus, train, or subway if
you are wearing a mask
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Acceptable 75.6% 73.3% 77.9% 65.4% 74.9% 82.1% 81.9% 68.5% 58.3% 69.4% 75.2% 88.1% 83.7%
Not Acceptable 24.4% 26.7% 22.1% 34.6% 25.1% 17.9% 18.1% 31.5% 41.7% 30.6% 24.8% 11.9% 16.3%
Unweighted Frequency 1404 696 708 183 344 450 427 177 163 104 516 355 89
Weighted Frequency 1404 695 709 390 352 387 275 191 159 91 538 328 96
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on May 6th and 7th,
2020, among a sample of 1404 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada. The survey
was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both
landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
Canada.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by iPolitics.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over different times of day and two days to maximize
the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as
evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is
added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.6% at the 95% confidence level.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.