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You are on page 1of 5

Have you ever wondered why the package of M&Ms you just bought never seems to have

enough of your favorite color? Or, why is it that you always seem to get the package of mostly

brown M&Ms? What’s going on at the Mars Company? Is the number of the different colors of

M&Ms in a package really different from one package to the next, or does the Mars Company

do something to insure that each package gets the correct number of each color of M&M?

Butter

Brown 13% 12% 17% 13% 10% 10%

Yellow 14% 15% 17% 13% 20% 20%

Red 13% 12% 17% 12% 10% 10%

Green 16% 15% 16% 12% 20% 20%

Blue 24% 23% 17% 25% 20% 20%

Orange 20% 23% 16% 25% 20% 20%

One way that we could determine if the Mars Co. is true to its word is to sample a package of

M&Ms and do a type of statistical test known as a “goodness of fit” test. This type of

statistical test allow us to determine if any differences between our observed measurements

(counts of colors from our M&M sample) and our expected (what the Mars Co. claims) are

simply due to chance or some other reason (i.e. the Mars company’s sorters aren’t doing a

very good job of putting the correct number of M&M’s in each package). The goodness of fit

test we will be using is called a Chi Square (X2) Analysis.

We will be calculating a statistical value and using a table to determine the probability that any

difference between observed data and expected data is due to chance alone.

We begin by stating the null hypothesis. A null hypothesis is the prediction that something is

not present, that a treatment will have no effect, or that there is no difference between

treatment and control. Another way of saying this is the hypothesis that an observed pattern of

data and an expected pattern are effectively the same, differing only by chance, not because

they are truly different.

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

To test this hypothesis we will need to calculate the X2 statistic, which is calculated in the

following way:

X2 = Σ(sum of) (O-E)2

E

where O is the observed (actual count) and E is the expected number for each color category.

The main thing to note about this formula is that, when all else is equal, the value of X2

increases as the difference between the observed and expected values increase.

On to it!

2. Open up a bag of M&Ms.

3. DO NOT EAT ANY OF THE M&M’S (for now!)

4. Separate the M&M’s into color categories and count the number of each color of M&M

you have.

5. Record your counts in Data Chart 1.

6. Determine the Chi square value for your data.

Chart 1 Brown Blue Orange Green Red Yellow Total

Observed

(o)

Expected

(e)

Differenc

e

(o-e)

Differenc

e

Squared

(o-e)2

(o-e)2/e

Σ (d2/e) =

X2

Now you must determine the probability that the difference between the observed and

expected values occurred simply by chance. The procedure is to compare the calculated

value of the chi-square to the appropriate value in the table below. First examine the table.

Note the term “degrees of freedom”. For this statistical test the degrees of freedom equal the

number of classes (i.e. color categories) minus one:

The reason why it is important to consider degrees of freedom is that the value of the chi-

square statistic is calculated as the sum of the squared deviations for all classes. The natural

increase in the value of chi-square with an increase in classes must be taken into account.

Scan across the row corresponding to your degrees of freedom. Values of the chi-square are

given for several different probabilities, ranging from 0.90 on the left to 0.01 on the right. Note

that the chi-square increases as the probability decreases. If your exact chi-square value is not

listed in the table, then estimate the probability.

Degrees Probability

of 0.90 0.50 0.25 0.10 0.05 0.01

Freedom

1 0.016 0.46 1.32 2.71 3.84 6.64

2 .0.21 1.39 2.77 4.61 5.99 9.21

3 0.58 2.37 4.11 6.25 7.82 11.35

4 1.06 3.36 5.39 7.78 9.49 13.28

5 1.61 4.35 6.63 9.24 11.07 15.09

Notice that a chi-square value as large as 1.61 would be expected by chance in 90% of the

cases, whereas one as large as 15.09 would only be expected by chance in 1% of the cases.

Stated another way, it is more likely that you’ll get a little deviation from the expected (thus a

lower Chi-Square value) than a large deviation from the expected. The column that we need to

concern ourselves with is the one under “0.05”. Scientists, in general, are willing to say that if

their probability of getting the observed deviation from the expected results by chance is

greater than 0.05 (5%), then we can accept the null hypothesis. In other words, there is really

no difference in actual ratios….…any differences we see between what Mars claims and what

is actually in a bag of M&Ms just happened by chance sampling error. Five percent! That is

not much, but it’s good enough for a scientist.

If however, the probability of getting the observed deviation from the expected results by

chance is less than 0.05 (5%) then we should reject the null hypothesis. In other words, for

our study, there is a significant difference in M&M color ratios between actual store-bought

bags of M&Ms and what the Mars Co. claims are the actual ratios. Stated another way…any

differences we see between what Mars claims and what is actually in a bag of M&Ms did not

just happen by chance sampling error.

The following information should be in your conclusion.

Based on your individual sample, should you accept or reject the null hypothesis? Why?

If you rejected your null hypothesis, what might be some explanations for your outcome?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now that you completed this chi-square test for your data, let’s do it for the entire class, as if

we had one huge bag of M&Ms. Using the information reported on the board, complete Data

Chart 2.

Chart 2 Brown Blue Orange Green Red Yellow Total

Observed

Expected

(e)

Deviation

(differenc

e between

expected

and

observed)

Deviation

Squared

(d2)

d2/e

Σ (d2/e) =

X2

Based on the class data, should you accept or reject the null hypothesis? Why ?

If you rejected the null hypothesis based on the class data, what might be some of the

explanations for your outcome?

If you accepted the null hypothesis, how do you explain it—particularly if you rejected the null

based on individual group data? What is the purpose of collecting data from the entire group?

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