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GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
DAILY REPORT No. 003_2011 for January 6_Thursday
PSE Index Pts Change % Change Volume (m) Value (phpm) Advancers Decliners Unchanged
4,212.98 -5.75 -0.14% 2,647.54 4,065.78 69 70 41
Our general outlook for the year, at least through the first quarter was “guarded optimism.” There is very little reason to doubt the resiliency, if
not strength, of the domestic economy. The figures that are beginning to come out lends proof to this confidence. In this perspective, the slide
off the opening bell did not come as a surprise – it was in fact, a welcome respite from a four-day advance and the even bigger gains since mid-
December. Having said that, the risks and uncertainties that clouded prospects last year, namely Europe and China, remains real and looms
large. It is something that we cannot, at this point, ignore and write-off, notwithstanding encouraging local data.
The market's MACD (12,26) spread has continued to expand since it
broke into positive (>0-line) last December 23 with the Index at
4,166.04. From a thin 2.09 point gap between the MACD line and
the signal line, it widened to 14.58 points to Tuesday. Yesterday's
slide saw the number slip marginally to 13.90 which does not alter
the still positive suggestions.
The weekly MACD remains in negative territory as well as sustains its
break under the signal line to a sixth week. Nevertheless, the
negative spread has narrowed in the last two weeks to -29.2 from
-32.4, indicating a dissipation of negative pressure.
Finally, on a monthly basis, the same indicator shows an extended
break above the signal line since July 2009. This coincides with a
DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO
OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS
FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE
SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS
REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE
INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
DAILY Report Page 1 of 2
ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
DAILY REPORT No. 003_2011 for January 6_Thursday
PSE Index Pts Change % Change Volume (m) Value (phpm) Advancers Decliners Unchanged
4,212.98 -5.75 -0.14% 2,647.54 4,065.78 69 70 41
similar break by the 10-pdEMA (monthly) above the 50pdEMA. Noticeably, however, the positive spread has consistently narrowed over the
last three months. Taken in isolation, this indicator suggests a possible near-term sustained profit taking (noting the index has remained above
the “window-dressed” year-end levels. Yet moving forward through the completion of the first quarter, as the market begins to discount
expected good numbers for Q4 2010 both for individual listed firms and the broad economy, prices may move upwards over the medium-term.
Global uncertainties presents the risks to the long-term view.
Much the same story is told by STO (10,3,3). The daily charts
positions the market at grossly overbought territory still even as it has
dropped off its recent peak at 96.11 (December 30. Worse, it
extended to a second session, its break under the trigger line settling
after yesterday's trades at 87.56, significantly above the 80-line. The
most recent break of a similar nature and from an almost equal level
occurred December 9th, following the 4,221.09 peak. The subsequent
slide over the next seven (7) sessions aggregated -163.76 points
(-3.88%) with STO driven below the oversold line at 18.24. This
invariably adds to the pessimism over the near-term, supplanting the
earlier suggestion and bias of the MACD. The monthly chart draws
an almost similar picture. It is only the weekly which posits a possible
run-up.
A third indicator however offer encouraging signs that the retreats posited by the earlier two indicators may not only be short-lived but are
likewise buying opportunities. In the chart to the left, it is obvious how the MFI has drawn a steep rise, breaking both the downtrend line drawn
and the horizontal peak levels parallel to the PSEI's recent top. This even as the PSEI has remained under such peak.
All things considered, both from a techincal and fundamental standpoint, an founded on the ceteris paribus assumption, things still look bright
for the market this year. Again, the risks are basically external, though no less important, particularly in a global milieu.
Trades should prospectively focus on potential 2010 earnings and real corporate developments.
Immediate support and resistance levels remain unchanged at the 4,170-4,200 and 4,230-4,250 ranges, respectively.
DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO
OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS
FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE
SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS
REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE
INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
DAILY Report Page 2 of 2