A SOURCEBOOK OF METHODS AND

PROCEDURES FOR MONI TORI NG AND
REPORTI NG ANTHROPOGENI C GREENHOUSE
GAS EMI SSI ONS AND REMOVALS CAUSED BY
DEFORESTATI ON, GAI NS AND LOSSES OF
CARBON STOCKS I N FORESTS REMAI NI NG
FORESTS, AND FORESTATI ON
Background and Rat i onale for t he Sourcebook
Thi s sourcebook provi des a consensus perspect i ve from t he global communi t y of eart h
observat ion and carbon expert s on met hodologi cal i ssues rel at i ng t o quanti fying t he
greenhouse gas ( GHG) i mpact s of i mpl ement ing mi ti gat i on act i vi ti es rel at ed t o t he forest
l and use i n devel oping count ri es ( REDD+ ). At current st at us of negot i ati on fi ve forest -
rel at ed act i vi ti es have been l i st ed t o be i mpl ement ed as mi ti gat i on act i ons by devel oping
count ri es, namel y: reduci ng emi ssi ons f rom deforest at i on ( whi ch i mpli es a l and-use
change) and reduci ng emi ssions f rom forest degradat i on, conservat ion of forest carbon
st ocks, sust ai nabl e management of forest , Enhancement of forest carbon st ocks ( all
rel at i ng t o carbon st ock changes and GHG emissi ons wi t hin managed forest l and use) .
The UNFCCC negoti at i ons and rel at ed count ry submi ssions on REDD+ have advocat ed
t hat met hodologi es and t ool s become avai l abl e f or est i mat i ng emi ssions and r emoval s
from deforest at i on and forest l and management wi th an accept abl e l evel of cert ai nt y.
Based on t he current st at us of negoti at i ons and UNFCCC approved met hodologi es, t he
Sourcebook ai ms t o provi de addi tional expl anat ion, cl ari fi cat i on, and met hodol ogi es t o
support REDD+ earl y act i ons and readi ness mechani sms for buil ding nat ional REDD+
moni tori ng syst ems. I t compli ment s t he I nt ergovernment al Panel on Cli mat e Change
( I PCC) 2006 Guidel ines for Nat i onal Greenhouse Gas I nvent ori es and i t i s ai med at bei ng
full y consi st ent wi t h thi s I PCC Guidelines and wi th t he UNFCCC report ing gui del ines on
annual invent ori es ( FCCC/ SBSTA/ 2006/ 9) . The book emphasi zes t he rol e of sat elli t e
remot e sensing as an i mport ant t ool for moni t oring changes i n forest cover, provi des
gui dance on how to obt ai n credi bl e est i mat es of forest carbon st ocks and r el at ed
changes, and provides cl ari fi cat ion on t he use of I PCC Gui delines for est i mat i ng and
reporti ng GHG emi ssi ons and removal s from forest l ands.
The sourcebook i s t he out come of an ad- hoc REDD+ working group of “ Global
Obser vat i on of Forest and Land Cover Dynami cs” ( GOFC-GOLD, www.f ao.org/ gt os/ gof c-
gol d/ ), a t echni cal panel of t he Gl obal Terrest ri al Observing Syst em ( GTOS). The working
group has been act i ve si nce t he i ni ti ation of t he UNFCCC REDD+ process i n 2005, has
organi zed REDD+ expert workshops, and has cont ri but ed t o rel at ed UNFCCC/ SBSTA si de
event s and GTOS submi ssi ons. GOFC- GOLD provi des an independent expert pl at form for
int ernat ional cooperat i on and communi cat i on t o formul at e sci ent i fi c consensus and
provi de t echni cal i nput t o t he di scussi ons and f or i mpl ement at i on act i vi ti es. A number of
int ernat ional exper t s i n remot e sensi ng, carbon measurement and report i ng under t he
UNFCCC have cont ri but ed t o t he devel opment of t hi s sourcebook.
Wi th poli ti cal di scussi ons and negoti at i ons ongoi ng, t he current document provi des t he
st art i ng point for defini ng an appropri at e moni t oring f ramework consi dering current
t echni cal capabi li ti es t o moni t or gross GHG emi ssi ons from changes i n forest cover by
deforest at i on and forest l and management . Thi s sourcebook i s a li ving document and
furt her met hods and t echni cal det ail s can be speci fi ed and added wi th evol vi ng
negoti at ions and sci ence. Respect i ve communi ti es ar e invi t ed t o provi de comment s and
feedback t o evol ve a more det ai l ed and r efined gui delines document i n t he fut ure.
iii
Refer encing

Thi s publ i cat ion should be referred as:
GOFC- GOLD, 2010 , A sour cebook of met hods and procedures for monit oring and
report ing ant hropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals caused by
deforestat ion, gains and losses of carbon st ocks in forest s remaining forest s,
and forest at ion.
GOFC- GOLD Report ver sion COP16 - 1 , ( GOFC- GOLD Proj ect Office, Nat ural
Resources Canada, Albert a, Canada)

Core Edi t orial t eam

Frédéric Achard, Joint Resear ch Cent re, I t al y
Sandra Brown, Winrock I nt ernat i onal , USA
Michael Brady, Nat ural Resources Canada
Rut h DeFries, Col umbi a Uni versi t y, USA
Giacomo Grassi, Joi nt Resear ch Cent re, I t al y
Mart in Herold, Wageningen Uni versi t y, The Net herl ands
Danilo Mollicone, Food and Agri cul ture Organizat i on, I t al y
Devendra Pandey, Forest Survey of I ndi a, I ndia
Carlos Souza Jr., I MAZON, Brazil

Aut hors

I n addi ti on t o t he core edi t ors, a number of int ernat i onal expert s i n remot e sensi ng,
carbon measurement and accounti ng have cont ribut ed t o t he development of t he
Sourcebook and are t hankful l y acknowl edged for t heir support . Thi s Sourcebook i s the
resul t of a j oint vol unt ary effort from more t han 30 cont ri buti ng aut hors from di fferent
inst i t uti ons ( t hat t hey may not necessaril y represent ) . I t i s st ill an evol ving document .
The exper t s who cont ribut ed t o t he pr esent versi on are li st ed under t he chapt er( s) t o
whi ch they cont ri but ed and hereaft er i n al phabet i cal order:
Olivier Arino, Gregory P. Asner, Luigi Boschet t i, Barbara Braat z, Emilio
Chiuvieco, I van Csiszar, Bernardus de Jong, Michael Falkowski, Sandro
Federici, Scot t Goet z, Nancy Harris, Yasumasa Hirat a, Anj a A. Hoffman,
Hans Joost en, Chris Just ice, Josef Kellndorfer, St ephen Kull, Werner Kur z,
Eric Lambin, Suvi Monni, Rebecca Moore, Erik Næsset , Ross Nelson, Marc
Paganini, Tim Pearson, Gary Richards, David Roy, Jeremy Russell- Smit h,
David Shoch, Florian Siegert , Margaret Skutsch, Allan Spessa, Pat rick Van
Laake, Michael Wulder

Publisher

GOFC- GOLD Proj ect Offi ce, host ed by Nat ural Resources Canada, Al bert a, Canada.
© Global Observat ion of Forest and Land Cover Dynami cs ( GOFC- GOLD)

Avai l abl e at : ht t p: / / www.gofc-gol d.uni - j ena.de/ redd/ ( vali d November 2010)

i v

Acknowledgment s

The European Space Agency, Nat ural Resources Canada, t he Nat i onal Aeronauti cs and
Space Admi ni st rat ion, and t he Canadi an Space Agency ar e acknowl edged for t heir
support of t he GOFC- GOLD Proj ect Offi ce and t he ad- hoc GOFC- GOLD REDD+ worki ng
group. Financi al support was provi ded by The Nat ure Conser vancy t o Wi nrock
I nt ernat ional t o prepar e t he mat eri al on t he forest carbon st ocks and t he met hodol ogi es
t o est i mat e t he carbon emi ssions. Most cont ributi ng aut hors were support ed by t hei r
home inst i tuti on t o cont ribut e indi vi duall y i n their area of sci enti fi c exper t i se t o t hi s
publ i cat ion ( e.g. by t he European Commi ssi on, Uni versi t y of Mar yl and, Uni versi t y of
Al cal a, I MAZON, Forest Survey of I ndi a, and ot hers) .
Speci fi c acknowl edgement i s gi ven t o t he cont ribution of Sandra Brown in preparing t he
fi rst ver sion of t he Sourcebook present ed at UNFCCC COP 13 in Bali (December 2007) .
The second versi on was di st ri but ed at t he UNFCCC Workshop on Met hodol ogi cal I ssues
rel at i ng t o REDD+ hel d in Tokyo (June 2008). The t hird and fourt h versions wer e
publ i shed in 2009 for t he COP 15. Thi s fi ft h ver si on for COP 16 in November 2010
addr esses REDD+ Plus i ssues and incl udes si gni fi cant l y updat ed sect i ons and a seri es of
chapt er s provi di ng pract i cal exampl es for dat a coll ect i on, I ndi a st udy case, communi t y-
based measurement s and recommendat i ons for count ry capaci t y bui ldi ng.
We acknowl edge t he foll owing peopl e for t he comment s whi ch were made on earli er
ver si ons of the Sourcebook: Al bert Ackhurst , Sharon Gomez, St even De Gryze, Doug
Muchoney, Jeffrey Hi mel and Bill St anl ey.
v
Table of Content s

1 INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................................1-1
1.1 PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE SOURCEBOOK .....................................................................................1-1
1.2 IPCC CONTEXT AND REQUIREMENTS ..............................................................................................1-2
1.2.1 LULUCF in the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol........................................................................1-2
1.2.2 Definition of forests, deforestation and degradation ................................................................1-3
1.2.3 General method for estimating CO
2
emissions and removals ...................................................1-6
1.2.4 Reference levels and benchmark forest area map.....................................................................1-8
1.3 CLARIFYING REDD+ ELEMENTS CAUSING FOREST CARBON STOCK CHANGE......................................1-9
1.4 EMERGING ISSUES FOR REDD+ IMPLEMENTATION.........................................................................1-11
1.5 ROADMAP FOR THE SOURCEBOOK .................................................................................................1-11
2 GUIDANCE ON METHODS............................................................................................................2-13
2.1 MONITORING OF CHANGES IN FOREST AREA.....................................................................2-15
2.1.1 Scope of chapter ...................................................................................................................2-15
2.1.2 Monitoring of changes of forest areas - deforestation and forestation....................................2-15
2.2 MONITORING OF CHANGE IN FOREST LAND REMAINING FOREST LAND.............................................2-27
2.2.2 Key references for Section 2.2...............................................................................................2-40
2.3 ESTIMATION OF ABOVE GROUND CARBON STOCKS.........................................................2-41
2.3.1 Scope of chapter ...................................................................................................................2-41
2.3.2 Overview of carbon stocks, and issues related to C stocks .....................................................2-42
2.3.3 Which Tier should be used? ..................................................................................................2-43
2.3.4 Stratification by carbon stocks ..............................................................................................2-47
2.3.5 Estimation of carbon stocks of forests undergoing change .....................................................2-52
2.3.6 ESTIMATION OF SOIL CARBON STOCKS..........................................................................2-65
2.4 METHODS FOR ESTIMATING CO2 EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION AND FOREST
DEGRADATION....................................................................................................................................2-72
2.4.1 Scope of chapter ...................................................................................................................2-72
2.4.2 Linkage to 2006 IPCC Guidelines .........................................................................................2-73
2.4.3 Organization of chapter........................................................................................................2-74
2.4.4 Fundamental carbon estimating issues..................................................................................2-74
2.4.5 Estimation of emissions from deforestation............................................................................2-76
2.4.6 Estimation of emissions from forest degradation ...................................................................2-80
2.5 METHODS FOR ESTIMATING GHG EMISSIONS FROM BIOMASS BURNING.....................2-81
2.5.1 Scope of chapter ...................................................................................................................2-81
2.5.2 Introduction..........................................................................................................................2-81
2.5.3 IPCC guidelines for estimating fire-related emission.............................................................2-84
2.5.4 Mapping fire from space.......................................................................................................2-85
2.5.5 Using existing products.........................................................................................................2-90
2.5.6 Case studies..........................................................................................................................2-93
2.5.7 Key references for Section 2.5...............................................................................................2-96
2.6 ESTIMATION OF UNCERTAINTIES..............................................................................................2-97
2.6.1 Scope of chapter ...................................................................................................................2-97
2.6.2 General concepts ..................................................................................................................2-98
2.6.3 Quantification of uncertainties..............................................................................................2-99
2.6.4 Key references for Section 2.6.............................................................................................2-109
2.7 METHODS TO ADDRESS EMERGING ISSUES FOR REDD+ IMPLEMENTATION.................................... 2-109
2.7.1 Identifying drivers of deforestation and degradation with remote sensing ............................2-109
2.7.2 Safeguards to ensure protection of biodiversity ...................................................................2-111
2.7.3 Safeguards to ensure rights of forest dwellers......................................................................2-112
2.7.4 Monitoring displacement of emissions and permanence at a national scale..........................2-112
2.7.5 Linking national and sub-national monitoring.....................................................................2-112
2.8 GUIDANCE ON REPORTING.................................................................................................. 2-113
2.8.1 Scope of chapter .................................................................................................................2-113
2.8.2 Overview of reporting principles and procedures ................................................................2-113
2.8.3 What are the major challenges for developing countries?....................................................2-118
2.8.4 The conservativeness approach...........................................................................................2-119
2.8.5 Key references for chapter 2.8 ............................................................................................2-123
vi
2.9 STATUS OF EVOLVING TECHNOLOGIES ............................................................................ 2-124
2.9.1 Scope of chapter .................................................................................................................2-124
2.9.2 Role of LIDAR observations................................................................................................2-125
2.9.3 Forest monitoring using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) observations................................2-128
2.9.4 Integration of satellite and in situ data for biomass mapping...............................................2-133
2.9.5 Targeted airborne surveys to support carbon stock estimations – a case study.....................2-135
2.9.6 Modeling and forecasting forest-cover change ....................................................................2-136
2.9.7 Cloud-computing and web-based approaches to support national forest monitoring ............2-138
2.9.8 Summary and recommendations..........................................................................................2-139
2.9.9 Key references for Section 2.9.............................................................................................2-141
3 PRACTICAL EXAMPLES FOR DATA COLLECTION..............................................................3-143
3.1 METHODS USED BY ANNEX-1 COUNTRIES FOR NATIONAL LULUCF INVENTORIES .. 3-143
3.1.1 Scope of chapter .................................................................................................................3-143
3.1.2 Methods for estimating forest area changes.........................................................................3-143
3.1.3 Methods for estimating carbon stock changes......................................................................3-146
3.1.4 National carbon budget models...........................................................................................3-147
3.1.5 Estimation of uncertainties..................................................................................................3-151
3.1.6 Key References for section 3.1 ............................................................................................3-152
3.2 OVERVIEW OF THE EXISTING FOREST AREA CHANGES MONITORING SYSTEMS ...... 3-152
3.2.1 Scope of chapter .................................................................................................................3-152
3.2.2 National case studies ..........................................................................................................3-153
3.2.3 Key references for Section 3.2.............................................................................................3-158
3.3 FROM NATIONAL FOREST INVENTORY TO NATIONAL FOREST GHG INVENTORIES ........................... 3-158
3.3.1 Scope of chapter .................................................................................................................3-158
3.3.2 Introduction on forest inventories in tropical countries........................................................3-159
3.3.3 Indian national forest inventory (NFI).................................................................................3-160
3.3.4 GHG emissions in Mexico from land-use change and forestry .............................................3-164
3.3.5 Key references for Section 3.3.............................................................................................3-169
3.4 COMMUNITY FOREST MONITORING ............................................................................................. 3-169
3.4.1 Scope of chapter: rationale for community based inventories...............................................3-170
3.4.2 How communities can make their own forest inventories .....................................................3-173
3.4.3 Additional data requirements..............................................................................................3-177
3.4.4 Reliability and accuracy .....................................................................................................3-177
3.4.5 Costs ..................................................................................................................................3-178
3.4.6 Options for independent assessment of locally collected data...............................................3-179
3.4.7 Emerging information needs and technologies for locally collected data..............................3-180
4 COUNTRY CAPACITY BUILDING..............................................................................................4-181
4.1 SCOPE OF CHAPTER ..................................................................................................................... 4-181
4.2 BUILDING NATIONAL CARBON MONITORING SYSTEMS FOR REDD: ELEMENTS AND CAPACITIES ..... 4-181
4.2.1 Key elements and required capacities - overview.................................................................4-181
4.2.2 Key elements and required capacities - GHG inventories ....................................................4-183
4.2.3 Key elements and required capacities - current monitoring capacities .................................4-187
4.3 CAPACITY GAPS AND COST IMPLICATIONS .................................................................................... 4-191
4.3.1 Importance of monitoring for establishing a national REDD+ infrastructure.......................4-191
4.3.2 Planning and design...........................................................................................................4-192
4.3.3 Institutional capacities........................................................................................................4-193
4.3.4 Cost factors for monitoring change in forest area................................................................4-194
4.3.5 Cost factors for monitoring change in carbon stocks ...........................................................4-195
4.3.6 Spatial data infrastructure, access and reporting procedures...............................................4-196
4.4 LINKING MONITORING AND POLICY DEVELOPMENT....................................................................... 4-197
4.5 KEY REFERENCES FOR SECTION 4................................................................................................. 4-201

1- 1
1 I NTRODUCTI ON
1.1 PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE SOURCEBOOK
Thi s sourcebook i s desi gned t o be a gui de t o devel op ref erence l evel s and t o desi gn a
nat i onal syst em for measuri ng by moni t oring act i vi ti es, and est i mat i ng according to
reporti ng guidel ines, carbon st ock changes and ant hropogeni c greenhouse gas ( GHG)
emi ssi ons from deforest at i on and management of forest l ands –incl udi ng their expansi on
( forest at i on)– based on t he gener al reporti ng requi rement s set by t he Uni t ed Nat i ons
Fr amework Convent i on on Climat e Change ( UNFCCC) and t he speci fi c met hodologi es for
t he Agri cul t ure, Forest r y and Ot her Land Use ( AFOLU) sect or provi ded by t he
I nt ergovernment al Panel on Cl imat e Change ( I PCC) .
The sourcebook i nt roduces users t o: i ) t he key i ssues and chal l enges r el at ed t o
moni tori ng and est i mat i ng carbon st ock changes and ant hropogeni c GHG emi ssions from
deforest at i on and management of forest l and; ii ) t he key met hods provi ded in t he 2006
I PCC Guidel ines for Nat i onal Greenhouse Gas I nvent ori es for Agri cul t ure, Forest ry and
Ot her Land Use ( GL- AFOLU) ; iii) how t hese I PCC met hods provi de t he st eps needed t o
est i mat e carbon st ock changes and ant hropogeni c GHG emi ssions from deforest at i on and
management of forest l and and i v) t he key i ssues and chall enges rel at ed t o report i ng
under t he UNFCCC.
The sourcebook provi des t ranspar ent met hods and procedures t hat ar e desi gned t o
produce accurat e est i mat es of changes in forest area and carbon st ocks and resul ting
ant hropogeni c emi ssi ons and r emoval s of GHGs from deforest at ion and management of
forest l and, i n a format t hat i s user - fri endl y. I t i s int ended t o compl ement t he I PCC
AFOLU Gui deli nes by provi ding addi tional expl anat i on, cl ari fi cat i on and enhanced
met hodologi es for obt ai ning and anal yzi ng key dat a meanwhi l e ensuri ng consi st ency of
t hat i nformat i on wi th I PCC works.
The sourcebook i s not desi gned as a pri mer on how t o anal yze remot e sensi ng dat a nor
how to coll ect fi el d measurement s of forest carbon st ocks as i t i s expect ed t hat t he users
of thi s sourcebook woul d have some expert i se in ei t her of t hese areas.
The sourcebook was developed consi deri ng t he fol lowi ng gui di ng princi pl es:
 Rel evance: Any moni toring syst em should provide an appropri at e mat ch bet ween
known REDD poli cy requirement s and current t echni cal capabili ti es. Furt her
met hods and t echni cal det ai l s can be speci fi ed and added wi t h evol ving politi cal
negoti at ions and deci sions.
 Comprehensi veness: The syst em shoul d al low global appli cabil it y wi t h
i mpl ement at i on at t he nat ional l evel , and wi th approaches t hat have pot ent i al for
sub-nat i onal act i vi ti es.
 Consi st ency: Proposed met hods/ act i vi t i es shall be consi st ent wi t h I PCC met hods
and wi th current provi sions on reporting under t he UNFCCC.
 Effi ci ency: Proposed met hods shoul d allow cost - effect i ve and ti mel y
i mpl ement at i on, and support earl y act i ons.
 Robust ness: Moni t oring should provi de appropri at e resul t s based on sound
sci ent i fi c underpi nni ngs and i nt ernat ional t echni cal consensus among exper t
groups.
 Transparency: The syst em must be open and readi l y avail abl e for independent
revi ewer s and t he met hodology appli ed must be repl i cabl e.
1- 2
1.2 I PCC CONTEXT AND REQUI REMENTS
The permanent conver si on of forest ed t o non- forest ed ar eas in devel oping count ri es has
had a si gnifi cant i mpact on t he accumul at i on of greenhouse gases i n t he at mosphere
1
, as
has forest degradat ion caused by hi gh i mpact l ogging, over- expl oi t at i on for fuel wood,
int ense gr azi ng t hat reduces r egenerat i on, and fi res. I f t he emi ssi ons of met hane ( CH
4
) ,
ni t rous oxi de ( N
2
O) , and ot her chemi call y react i ve gases t hat resul t from subsequent
uses of t he l and are consi dered i n addi ti on t o carbon di oxi de ( CO
2
) emi ssions, annual
emi ssi ons from t ropi cal deforest at i on during the 1990s account ed for about 15- 25% of
t he t ot al ant hropogeni c emi ssi ons of greenhouse gases
2
.
For a number of reasons, act i vi ti es t o reduce such emi ssions are not accept ed for
gener at i ng credi t abl e emi ssi ons reduct i ons under t he Kyot o Prot ocol . However, t he
compelli ng environment al rat i onal e for t hei r consi derat i on has been cruci al for t he recent
incl usi on of t he REDD+ i ssue (i .e., “ Poli cy approaches and posi t i ve i ncenti ves on i ssues
rel at i ng t o reduci ng emi ssi ons from deforest at i on and forest degradat i on i n devel oping
count ri es; and t he rol e of conservat ion, sust ai nabl e management of forest s and
enhancement of forest carbon st ocks i n devel oping count ri es” ) in t he UNFCCC agenda for
a f ut ure gl obal cli mat e agr eement
3
. Al t hough exi sting I PCC met hodologi es and UNFCCC
reporti ng princi pl es will represent t he basis of any fut ure REDD+ mechani sm,
fundament al met hodologi cal i ssues need t o be urgentl y addressed i n order t o produce
est i mat es t hat ar e “ resul t s based, demonst rabl e, t r ansparent , and veri fi abl e, and
est i mat ed consi st ent l y over t i me”
4
– t hi s i s t he focus of t hi s sourcebook.
1. 2. 1 LULUCF in t he UNFCCC and Kyoto Prot ocol
Under t he current rul es for Annex I Part i es ( i .e. i ndust ri ali zed count ri es) , t he Land Use,
Land Use Change and Forest ry (LULUCF) sect or i s t he onl y sect or wher e t he
requi rement s for report i ng emi ssi ons and removal s are di f ferent bet ween t he UNFCCC
and t he Kyot o Prot ocol (Tabl e 1.2.1) . I ndeed, unli ke t he report i ng under t he Convent ion
- whi ch incl udes all emi ssi ons/ removal s from LULUCF - , under t he Kyot o Prot ocol the
reporti ng and accounting of emi ssions/ removal s i s mandat ory onl y for t he act i vi ti es
under Art . 3.3, whi l e i t i s volunt ary ( i .e. eli gi ble) f or act i vi ti es under Art . 3.4 ( see Tabl e
1. 2.1) . These LULUCF act i vi ti es may be developed domest i call y by Annex I Part i es or vi a
Kyot o Prot ocol’s fl exi bl e inst rument s, i ncl uding Afforest at i on/ Reforest at i on proj ect s
under t he “ Cl ean Devel opment Mechani sm” ( CDM) in non- Annex I Part i es ( i . e.
devel opi ng count ri es) . For t he nat i onal invent ori es, est i mat i ng and reporting gui deli nes
can be drawn from UNFCCC document s
5
and t he 2003 Good Pract i ce Gui dance for
LULUCF (GPG- LULUCF; where Chapt er 4 cont ai ns met hods speci fi c for t he Kyot o Prot ocol
reporti ng) .
The I PCC has al so adopt ed a more recent set of est i mat i on gui delines ( 2006 Gui deli nes)
in whi ch t he Agri cul t ure and LULUCF sect ors are i nt egrat ed t o form t he Agri cul ture, Land
Use and Forest r y ( AFOLU) sect or. Al t hough t hese l at est Gui deli nes shoul d st il l be
consi dered onl y a sci enti fi c publi cat ion, because t he deci si on of t hei r use for reporting
under UNFCCC has not been t aken yet , i n t hi s sourcebook we make ref erence t o t hem
( as GL- AFOLU) because t hey r epresent t he most rel evant and updat ed source of
met hodologi cal informat i on.



1
De Fries et al. ( 2002) ; Hought on ( 2003) ; Achard et al. ( 2004)
2
According t o t he I PCC AR4 ( 2007) , 1.6+ 0.9 Gt C yr
- 1
are emit t ed f rom land use changes ( mainly
t ropical deforest at ion)
3
Decision 1/ CP. 13, ht t p: / / unfccc. int / resour ce/ docs/ 2007/ cop13/ eng/ 06a01. pdf # page= 3
4
Decision 2/ CP. 13. ht t p: / / unfccc. int / resour ce/ docs/ 2007/ cop13/ eng/ 06a01. pdf # page= 8.
5
For a broader overview of report ing principles and procedures under UNFCCC see Chapt er 6. 2.
1- 3

Table 1.2.1. Exi st i ng frameworks for t he Land Use, Land Use Change and Forest r y
( LULUCF) sect or under t he UNFCCC and t he Kyot o Protocol .
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forest ry
UNFCCC ( 20 03 GPG and
2006 GL- AFOLU)
Kyot o Kyoto- Flexibilit y
Six land use classes and
conversion bet ween them:
Forest l and
Cropl and
Grassl and
Wet l ands
Set t l ement s
Ot her Land
Art icle 3.3
Afforest at i on,
Reforest at i on,
Deforest at i on
Art icle 3.4
Cropl and management
Grazi ng l and
management
Forest management
Reveget at i on
CDM
Afforest at i on
Reforest at i on

Deforest at i on= forest l and
convert ed t o anot her l and
cat egory
Cont roll ed by t he Rul es and Modali ti es (includi ng
Defini tions) incl uded i n COP/ MOP Deci si ons ( for a ful l
set of, see www.unfccc.i nt )
1. 2. 2 Defi nit i on of forests, deforestat ion and degradati on
For t he new REDD+ mechani sm, many t erms, defini tions and ot her el ement s are not yet
cl ear. For exampl e, al t hough t he t erms ‘def orest at i on’ and ‘forest degradat i on’ are
commonl y used, t hey can wi del y var y among count ri es. As deci si ons for REDD+ wi ll
li kel y bui ld on t he current modali ti es under t he UNFCCC and i t s Kyot o Protocol , current
defini tions and t erms pot ent i all y represent a st art ing point for consi dering refined and/ or
addi tional defini tions, i f i t will be needed.
For t hi s reason, t he defi ni tions as used i n UNFCCC and Kyot o Prot ocol cont ext ,
pot ent i all y appl i cabl e t o REDD+ af t er a negoti at i on process, are descri bed bel ow.
Speci fi call y, whi le f or reporting under t he UNFCCC onl y generi c defini tions on l and uses
are used, t he Kyot o Prot ocol reporting prescri bes a set of defi ni ti ons t o be appl i ed for
LULUCF act i vi ti es, al t hough some fl exi bilit y i s l eft t o count ri es.
Forest land – Under t he UNFCCC, t hi s cat egory i ncl udes all l and wit h woody veget at i on
consi st ent wi t h t hresholds used t o define Forest Land in t he nat i onal greenhouse gas
invent ory. I t al so includes syst ems wi t h a veget at i on st ruct ure t hat does not , but in si t u
coul d pot enti all y reach, t he t hreshol d val ues used by a count ry t o defi ne t he Forest Land
cat egory. Moreover, t he cont emporar y presence of ot her uses whi ch may be
predomi nant shoul d be t aken i nt o account
6
.
The est i mat ion of deforest at i on i s affect ed by t he defi nitions of ‘forest ’ versus ‘non-
forest ’ l and t hat vary wi del y in t er ms of t ree si ze, ar ea, and canopy densi t y. Forest
defini tions are myri ad, however, common t o most defini tions ar e t hreshol d paramet ers
incl uding mini mum area, mini mum hei ght and mini mum l evel of crown cover. I n i t s
forest resource assessment of 2010, t he FAO
7
uses a mi ni mum cover of 10%, hei ght of


6
The presence of a predominant forest - use is cr ucial f or land use classif icat ion since t he mer e
presence of t rees is not enough t o classif y an area as f orest land ( e. g. an urban park wit h t rees
exceeding f orest t hreshold should not be considered as a f orest land) .
7
FAO ( 2006) : Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005. Main Report ,
www. fao. org/ f orest ry/ f ra2005
1- 4
5m and ar ea of 0. 5ha st at i ng al so t hat forest use should be t he predomi nant use.
However, t he FAO approach of a si ngl e worl dwide val ue excl udes vari abi li t y in ecol ogi cal
condi ti ons and di fferi ng percept i ons of forest s.
For t he purpose of t he Kyot o Prot ocol
8
, Part i es shoul d sel ect a si ngl e val ue of crown
area, t r ee hei ght and area t o def ine forest s wit hi n t hei r nat ional boundari es. Sel ect i on
must be from wi t hin t he foll owing ranges, wi t h t he underst anding t hat young st ands t hat
have not yet reached t he necessary cover or height are i ncluded as forest :
 Mini mum forest area: 0.05 t o 1 ha
 Pot ent i al t o reach a mi ni mum hei ght at mat uri t y in sit u of 2-5 m
 Mini mum t ree crown cover (or equi val ent st ocking l evel ) : 10 t o 30 %
Under t hi s defini tion a forest can cont ai n anyt hing from 10% t o 100% t ree cover; i t i s
onl y when cover fall s below t he mi ni mum crown cover as desi gnat ed by a gi ven count ry
t hat l and i s cl assi fi ed as non-forest . However, i f t hi s i s onl y a change i n t he forest cover
not followed by a change in use, such as for ti mber har vest wi t h regener at i on expect ed,
t he l and remai ns in t he forest cl assi fi cat ion. The speci fi c defini t ion chosen wil l have
i mpl icat i ons on where t he boundari es bet ween deforest at i on and degradat i on occur.
The Desi gnat ed Nat i onal Aut horit y (DNA) in each developing count ry i s responsi bl e for
t he forest defi ni ti on, and a comprehensi ve and updat ed li st of each count ry’s DNA and
t hei r forest defi ni ti on can be f ound on ht t p: / / cdm.unfccc.i nt / DNA/ .
The def ini t ion of forest s of fers some fl exi bi lit y for count ri es when desi gning a moni t oring
pl an because anal ysi s of remot e sensing dat a can adapt t o di fferent mini mum t ree crown
cover and mi ni mum forest ar ea t hreshol ds. However, consi st ency i n forest cl assi fi cat i ons
for all REDD+ act i vi t i es i s cri ti cal for int egrat i ng di fferent t ypes of informat i on i ncluding
remot e sensi ng anal ysi s. The use of di fferent defi ni tions i mpact s t he t echni cal eart h
observat ion requi rement s and coul d i nfluence cost , avail abilit y of dat a, and abiliti es t o
int egrat e and compar e dat a t hrough ti me.
Deforest at ion - Most defi ni ti ons charact eri ze deforest at i on as t he l ong- t erm or
permanent conversi on of l and from forest use t o ot her non-f orest uses. Under Deci si on
16/ CMP.1, t he UNFCCC defined deforest at i on as: “ .. t he di rect , human-i nduced
conversi on of forest ed l and t o non- forest ed l and.”
Ef fect i vel y t hi s defini tion means a reduct i on i n crown cover from above t he t hreshol d for
forest defi ni tion t o below t hi s threshol d. For exampl e, if a count ry defines a forest as
havi ng a crown cover great er t han 30%, t hen deforest at i on woul d not be recorded until
t he crown cover was r educed bel ow t hi s li mi t . Yet ot her count ri es may def ine a forest as
one wi th a crown cover of 20% or even 10% and t hus deforest at i on would not be
recorded unt il t he crown cover was reduced bel ow t hese l i mi t s. I f forest cover decr eases
below t he t hreshol d onl y t emporari l y due t o say l ogging, and t he forest i s expect ed t o
regrow t he crown cover t o above t he t hreshold, t hen t hi s decr ease i s not consi dered
deforest at i on.
Deforest at i on causes a change in l and use and usuall y in l and cover. Common changes
incl ude: conversi on of forest s t o annual cropland, conver sion t o perenni al pl ant s ( oil
pal m, shrubs) , and conversion t o urban l ands or ot her human i nfrast ruct ure.
Forest degradat ion and enhancement of carbon stocks wit hin forest land – I n
areas wher e t here are ant hropogeni c net emi ssions (i .e. where GHG emi ssi ons ar e l arger
t han removal s) duri ng a gi ven t i me peri od (no longer t han t he commi t ment peri od of t he
accounti ng framework) from forest s caused by a decrease i n canopy cover / biomass
densi t y t hat does not qualify as deforest at i on, i t i s t ermed as forest degr adat i on.


8
Decision 16/ CMP. 1 ht t p: / / unfccc. int / resource/ docs/ 2005/ cmp1/ eng/ 08a03. pdf# page= 3
1- 5
The I PCC speci al report on ‘Defi ni t ions and Met hodologi cal Opti ons t o I nvent ory
Emi ssions from Di rect Human-I nduced Degradat ion of Forest s and Deveget at i on of Ot her
Veget at i on Types’ ( 2003) present s fi ve di ff erent pot ent i al defini tions for degradat i on
al ong wi th t hei r pros and cons. The report suggest ed t he foll owing charact eri zat i on for
degr adat i on:
“ A direct , human-i nduced, long- t erm l oss ( persist i ng for X years or more) or at l east Y%
of forest carbon st ocks [ and forest val ues] si nce t i me T and not qualifying as
deforest at i on” .
The t hreshol ds for carbon loss and mi nimum area aff ect ed as well as l ong t erm need t o
be speci fi ed t o operat i onal i ze t hi s defi ni ti on. I n t erms of changes i n carbon st ocks,
degr adat i on t herefore would represent a di rect human-i nduced/ ant hropogeni c decrease
in carbon st ocks, wi t h measured canopy cover r emai ni ng above t he t hreshol d for
defini tion of forest and no change in l and use. Moreover, t o be di st ingui shed from
forest ry act i vi ti es t he decr ease shoul d be consi dered per si st ent . The persi st ence coul d be
eval uat ed by moni t oring carbon st ock changes ei t her over t i me ( i .e. a net decr ease
during a gi ven peri od, e.g. 20 years) or al ong space ( e.g. a net decr ease over a l arge
area where all t he successi onal st ages of a managed forest are pr esent ) .
Consi dering t hat , at nat ional l evel , sust ai nable f orest management l eads t o nat i onal
gross l osses of carbon st ocks ( e.g. t hrough harvest i ng) whi ch can be onl y l ower t han ( or
equal t o) nat i onal gross gai ns (i n part i cul ar t hrough forest growt h) , consequentl y a net
decr ease of forest carbon st ocks at nat ional l evel during a reporting period would be due
t o forest degr adat i on wi t hin t he count ry. Conver sel y, a net increase of forest carbon
st ocks at nat i onal l evel would correspond t o forest enhancement .
Therefore, i t i s al so possi bl e t hat no speci fi c def ini tion i s needed, and t hat any net
emi ssi on will be report ed si mpl y as a net decr ease or increase of carbon st ock in the
cat egory “ Forest l and remaini ng forest l and” .
Gi ven t he l ack of a cl ear defini tion for degradat ion, or even t he l ack of any def ini tion, i t
i s diffi cult t o desi gn a moni t oring syst em. However, some gener al observat i ons and
concept s exi st and ar e present ed her e t o i nf orm t he debat e. Degr adat i on may pr esent a
much broader l and cover change t han deforest at i on. I n reali t y, moni toring of
degr adat i on will be l i mit ed by t he t echni cal capaci t y t o sense and record t he change i n
canopy cover because small changes wil l likel y not be apparent unl ess t hey produce a
syst emat i c pat t ern i n t he i magery. However, a t i me seri es of nat i onal forest i nvent ori es
can properl y i denti fy and quant i f y, wi th hi gh accuracy, changes i n forest covers and
rel at ed carbon st ocks.
Many act i vi ti es cause degr adat ion of carbon st ocks in forest s but not all of t hem can be
moni tored well wi th hi gh cert ai nt y, and not all of t hem need t o be moni t ored usi ng
remot e sensi ng dat a, t hough bei ng abl e t o use such dat a woul d gi ve more confidence t o
report ed net emi ssi ons from degradat i on. To devel op a moni t oring syst em for
degr adat i on, i t i s f irst necessary t hat t he causes of degr adat i on be i denti fi ed and t he
li kel y i mpact on t he carbon st ocks be assessed.
 Area of forest s undergoing sel ect i ve l ogging ( bot h l egal and i ll egal ) wi th t he
presence of gaps, roads, and log decks are likel y t o be observabl e in remot e
sensi ng i mager y, especi all y t he net work of roads and l og decks. The gaps i n t he
canopy caused by harvest i ng of t rees have been det ect ed in i magery such as
Landsat usi ng more sophi sti cat ed anal yt i cal t echni ques of frequent l y col l ect ed
i magery, and t he t ask i s somewhat easi er t o det ect when t he l oggi ng act i vi t y i s
more i nt ense ( i .e. hi gher number of t rees logged; see Sect i on 2.1.2) . A
combi nat ion of l egal loggi ng followed by ill egal act i vi ti es i n t he same concession i s
li kel y t o cause more degradat ion and more change i n canopy charact eri st i cs, and
an increased chance t hat t hi s coul d be moni tored wi t h Landsat t ype i mager y and
int erpret at i on. The reduct ion i n carbon st ocks from sel ect i ve logging can al so be
est i mat ed wi t hout t he use sat elli t e i magery, i .e. based on met hods gi ven i n t he
I PCC GL- AFOLU for est i mat i ng changes i n carbon st ocks of “ forest l and remai ning
forest l and”.
1- 6
 Degr adat i on of carbon st ocks by forest fi res coul d be more di ffi cul t t o moni tor
wi th exi st ing sat elli t e i magery and li t tl e t o no dat a exi st on t he changes in carbon
st ocks. Dependi ng on t he severi t y and ext ent of fires, t he i mpact on t he carbon
st ocks coul d vary wi del y. Pract i cal l y al fires i n t ropi cal forest s have ant hropogeni c
causes, as t her e ar e li t tl e t o no dry el ect ri c st orms i n t ropi cal humi d forest areas.
 Degr adat i on by over expl oi t at i on for fuel wood or ot her l ocal uses of wood i s oft en
followed by ani mal grazi ng t hat prevent s regener at i on, a si t uat i on more common
in dri er forest ar eas. Thi s si tuat i on i s l ikel y not t o be det ect abl e from sat elli t e
i mage int erpret at i on unl ess t he rat e of degradat i on was i nt ense causing l arger
changes in t he canopy.
1. 2. 3 General met hod for estimat i ng CO
2
emissions and removals
To facili t at e t he use of t he I PCC GL- AFOLU and GPG report s si de by si de wi t h t he
sourcebook, defini tions used i n t he sourcebook remain consi st ent wi t h t he I PCC
Gui delines. I n t hi s sect i on we summari ze key gui dance and defi ni ti ons from t he I PCC
Gui delines t hat fr ame t he more det ail ed procedures t hat follow.
The t erm “ Cat egori es” as used i n I PCC report s refer s t o speci fi c sources of emi ssions and
sinks of removal s of greenhouse gases. For t he purposes of t hi s sourcebook, t he
following cat egori es ar e consi dered under t he AFOLU sect or:
 Forest Land convert ed t o Cropl and, Forest Land convert ed t o Grassl and, Forest
Land convert ed t o Wet l ands, Forest Land convert ed t o Set t l ement s, and Forest
Land convert ed t o Ot her Land, ar e commonl y equat ed wi t h “def orest at i on” .
 A decr ease i n carbon st ocks of Forest Land remaining Forest Land i s commonl y
equat ed t o “ forest degr adat i on” . An increase i n t hi s cat egory would refer t o t he
enhancement of carbon st ocks.
 Non-forest l and convert ed t o forest l and woul d generall y be referred t o as
forest at i on and i s refl ect ed i n new forest ar ea being creat ed.
The I PCC Gui delines refer t o t wo basi c input s wi th whi ch t o cal cul at e gr eenhouse gas
invent ori es: act i vi t y dat a and emi ssions fact ors. “ Act i vi t y dat a” refer t o t he ext ent of a
cat egory, and i n t he case of def orest at i on, forest at ion and forest degr adat i on/
enhancement s ref ers t o t he areal ext ent of those cat egori es, present ed i n hect ar es.
Hencefort h for t he purposes of t hi s sourcebook, act i vi t y dat a ar e r eferr ed t o as area
dat a. “Emi ssion fact ors” refer t o emi ssi ons/ removal s of greenhouse gases per uni t area,
e.g. t ons carbon dioxi de emi t t ed per hect ar e of deforest at i on. Emi ssions/ removal s
resul ting from l and-use conversi on are mani fest ed i n changes i n ecosyst em carbon
st ocks, and for consi st ency wi t h t he I PCC Gui deli nes, we use uni t s of carbon, speci fi call y
met ri c t ons of carbon per hect are ( t C ha
- 1
) , t o express emi ssi on fact ors for deforest at i on
and forest degr adat i on.
1.2 .3.1 Assessing act ivit y dat a
The I PCC Gui delines descri be t hree di fferent Approaches for represent i ng the act i vi t y
dat a, or t he change i n area of different l and cat egori es ( Tabl e 1.2.2) : Approach 1
identi fi es t he t ot al area for each l and cat egory - t ypi cal l y from non-spat i al count ry
st at i st i cs - but does not provi de informat ion on t he nat ure and area of conversi ons
bet ween l and uses, i . e. i t onl y provi des “ net ” area changes ( i . e. deforest at i on mi nus
forest at i on) and thus i s not suit abl e for REDD. Approach 2 invol ves t racking of l and
conversi ons bet ween cat egori es, resul t ing in a non- spat i al l y expli ci t l and- use conversi on
mat ri x. Approach 3 ext ends Approach 2 by usi ng spat i all y expli ci t l and conversion
informat i on, deri ved from sampling or wall - to- wall mapping t echni ques. Si mil arl y t o
current requi rement s under t he Kyot o Prot ocol , i t i s li kel y t hat under a REDD+
1- 7
mechani sm t hat l and use changes will be requi red t o be i denti fi abl e and t raceabl e i n t he
fut ure, i .e. i t i s li kel y t hat onl y Approach 3 can be usef ul for l and t racki ng
9
and t herefor e
for REDD+ i mpl ement at i on
10
.
Table 1.2.2. A summary of t he approaches t hat can be used for the act i vi t y dat a.
Approach for act ivit y dat a: Area change
1. t ot al area for each l and use cat egory, but no
informat i on on conversi ons (onl y net changes)
2. t racking of conversions bet ween l and- use cat egori es
( onl y bet ween 2 point s in ti me)
3. spat i al l y expli ci t t racki ng of l and-use conver sions
over t i me

1.2 .3.2 Assessing emission fact ors
The emi ssi on fact ors ar e deri ved from assessment s of t he changes i n carbon st ocks i n
t he vari ous carbon pool s of a forest . Carbon st ock informat i on can be obt ai ned at
di fferent Tier levels ( Tabl e 1.2.3) and whi ch one i s sel ect ed i s i ndependent of t he
Approach sel ect ed. Ti er 1 uses I PCC def aul t values ( i .e. biomass i n diff erent f orest
bi omes, carbon fract ion et c.) ; Ti er 2 requires some count ry- speci fi c carbon dat a ( i . e.
from fi el d invent ori es, permanent pl ot s) , and Ti er 3 highl y di saggregat ed nat i onal
invent ory- t ype dat a of carbon st ocks in di fferent pool s and assessment of any change i n
pool s t hrough repeat ed measurement s al so support ed by model ing. Movi ng from Ti er 1
t o Ti er 3 increases t he accuracy and preci si on of t he est i mat es, but al so increases t he
compl exi t y and t he cost s of moni toring.
Table 1.2.3. A summary of t he Ti ers t hat can be used for t he emi ssion fact ors.
Tiers for emission fact ors: Change in C st ocks
1. I PCC defaul t fact ors
2. Count ry speci fi c dat a for key f act ors
3. Det ail ed nat i onal i nvent ory of key C st ocks, repeat ed
measurement s of key st ocks t hrough ti me and
modeli ng

Chapt er 2.2 of t his sourcebook provides guidance on how t o obtain t he act ivit y
data, or gross and net change in forest area, wit h low uncert aint y. Chapt er 2.3
focuses on obt aining dat a for emission fact ors and providing guidance on how
t o produce est imat es of carbon stocks of forest s wit h low uncert aint y suit able
for nat ional assessments.


9
To achieve accuracy, unit s of land where use or management pract ices changed over t ime shall
be ident if ied and t racked t o ensure t he most appropriat e emissions fact or is applied f or est imat ing
GHG net emissions.
10
While bot h Approaches 2 and 3 give gross- net changes among land cat egor ies, only Approach 3
allows t o est imat e gross- net changes wit hin a cat egory, i. e. t o det ect a def orest at ion f ollowed by
an af forest at ion, which is not possible wit h Appr oach 2 unless det ailed supplement ary inf ormat ion
is provided.
1- 8
Moreover, I PCC wi t hin Ti er 1 provi de a si mplifi ed modeli zat i on for est i mat ing changes i n
carbon st ocks. A more compl et e model i zat i on i s appli ed at t i er 2 whil e at t i er 3 count ri es
are free t o produce t hei r own model s t hat shoul d provi de more compl et e and accurat e
est i mat es ( see t abl e 1.2.4) .
Table 1.2.4. Mandat ory pool s t o be est i mat ed according t o I PCC Gui delines.
FLrFL LcFL FLrFL LcFL
LB AB
BB
DOM DW
L
SOM SO M
FL
TI ER 1
Conversion from forest to
other land uses
Conversion from forest to
other land uses
TI ERS 2 and 3
FL

I n red, pool s whose carbon st ock changes have t o be est i mat ed, i n whi t e carbon pool s
assumed, by def aul t , t o be i n equili brium.
LB = Li ving Biomass pool (AB = aboveground bi omass, BB = belowground biomass) ,
DOM = Dead Organi c Mat t er pool ( DW = dead wood, L = l i t t er) , SOM = Soil Organi c
Mat t er pool .
FL = Forest Land, FLr FL = Forest Land remai ni ng Forest Land, LcFL Land convert ed t o
Forest Land.
For Forest Land, in pract i ce, under t i er 1 onl y the li ving biomass pool account s for gain
( due t o veget at i on growt h) and losses ( assumed i mmedi at e oxi dat i on of carbon st ocks
t ransf erred t o any ot her pool) .
Accordi ng t o t he I PCC, est i mat es shoul d be accurat e and uncert ai nti es shoul d be
quant ifi ed and reduced as far as pr act i cabl e. Furt hermore, carbon st ocks of t he key or
si gni fi cant cat egori es and pool s should be est i mat ed wi t h t he hi gher t i ers ( see al so
chapt er 3.1.5) . As t he r eport ed est i mat es of reduced emi ssi ons wi ll li kel y be t he basi s of
an accounti ng procedure ( as i n t he Kyot o Prot ocol ) , wi t h t he event ual assi gnment of
economi c incent i ves, Ti er 3 should be t he l evel t o whi ch count ri es shoul d aspi re. I n t he
cont ext of REDD, however, t he met hodologi cal choi ce wil l i nevi t abl y resul t from a
bal ance bet ween t he requirement s of accuracy/ preci si on and t he cost of moni toring. I t i s
li kel y t hat t hi s bal ance will be guided by t he pri nci pl e of conservat iveness, i .e. a t i er
lower t han requi red could be used – or a carbon pool could be i gnored - i f i t can be
demonst r at ed t hat t he over al l est i mat e of reduced emi ssions are li kel y t o be
underest i mat ed ( see al so chapt er 4) . Thus, when accuracy and preci sion of t he
est i mat es cannot be achi eved, est i mat es of reduced emi ssions shoul d at least be
conservat i ve, i .e. wi t h very low pot enti al overest i mat i on.
1. 2. 4 Reference levels and benchmark forest area map
The est i mat e of emi ssions and removal s from deforest at i on, forest at i on and changes i n
remai ni ng forest ar eas r equires assessing reference l evel s agai nst whi ch fut ure
emi ssi ons and removal s can be compar ed. The refer ence l evel represent s busi ness- as-
usual carbon bal ance f rom forest r el at ed human act i vi ti es on t he nat i onal l evel and i s
based on hi st ori cal dat a.
Credi bl e reference levels can be est abli shed for a REDD+ syst em usi ng exi sti ng
sci ent i fi c and t echni cal t ool s, and t hi s i s t he focus of t hi s sourcebook.
Techni call y, from remot e sensi ng i magery i t i s possi bl e t o moni t or forest ar ea change
wi th confi dence from 1990s onwards and est imat es of forest C st ocks can be obt ai ned
from a vari et y of sources. Feasi bil it y and accuraci es will st rongl y depend on nat i onal
ci rcumst ances ( i n part i cul ar i n rel ati on t o dat a avail abi lit y) , t hat i s, pot enti al li mi t at i ons
are more rel at ed t o resources and dat a avai l abilit y t han t o met hodol ogi es.
1- 9
A rel at ed i ssue i s t he concept of a benchmark forest area map. Any nat i onal program
t o reduce net emi ssions from deforest at i on and degradat i on can benefi t f rom an ini ti al
forest area map t o repr esent t he point f rom whi ch each fut ure forest area assessment
will be made and act ual negat i ve changes wi ll be moni t ored so as t o report onl y gross
deforest at i on going forward. Thi s ini t i al forest ar ea map i s referred t o here as a
benchmark map. The use of a benchmark map will show where moni t oring should be
done t o assess l oss i n forest cover. The use of a benchmark map makes moni t oring
deforest at i on ( and some degradat i on) a si mpl er t ask. The i nt erpret at i on of t he remot e
sensi ng i mager y needs t o i denti fy onl y t he ar eas ( or pi xel s) t hat changed compar ed t o
t he benchmark map. The benchmark map would t hen be updat ed at t he st art of each
new anal ysi s event so t hat one i s j ust moni t oring t he l oss of forest ar ea from t he ori ginal
benchmark map. The f orest area benchmark map woul d al so show where forest s exi st
and how t hese ar e st rat i fi ed ei t her for carbon or for ot her nat ional needs.
I f onl y gross deforest at ion i s being moni tored, t he benchmark map can be updat ed by
subt ract i ng t he ar eas wher e deforest at i on has occurred. I f f orest at i on needs t o be
moni tored, t he ent i re area i n t he ori ginal benchmark map needs t o be moni tored for
bot h forest l oss and forest gain. To show where non-forest l and i s revert i ng t o forest s a
moni tori ng of t he full count ry t erri t ory i s needed.
1.3 CLARI FYI NG REDD+ ELEMENTS CAUSI NG FOREST
CARBON STOCK CHANGE
I n t he poli cy t ext s current l y i n di scussion under t he UNFCCC, REDD+ i s underst ood t o
incl ude reduced deforest at i on and degradat i on, whil e REDD+ incl udes t hese but al so
forest enhancement , sust ai nabl e management of forest s and forest conservat i on. I t i s
evi dent t hat bet ween t hem, t hese fi ve concept s cover t hree di fferent princi pl es as
regards cl i mat e change mi ti gat i on; reducti on of emi ssi ons, i ncreasi ng t he rat e of
sequest r at i on wi thin exi st i ng forest s, and mai nt ai ni ng exi st ing forest reservoi rs. The
grouping as i t currentl y st ands refl ect s t he hist ory of t he poli cy debat e i n whi ch fi rst
´ avoi ding deforest at i on´ was recogni zed as an i mport ant goal , t o whi ch ´ avoi ding
degr adat i on´ was qui ckl y appended. The addi t ional el ement s maki ng up REDD+ ent er ed
t he debat e more recent l y, at t he insi st ence of count ri es whi ch have l ow deforest at i on
rat es but nevert hel ess feel t hat t hei r forest s may pl ay an i mport ant rol e in t he global
carbon bal ance. ´ D and D´ ar e al ways seen as bei ng cl osel y rel at ed, and rat her
di fferent from t he ot her t hree el ement s.
Deforest at ion: i s t he conversi on from forest l and use t o anot her l and use. The f orest
defini tion i s l argel y deci ded by each count ry ( wi t hin limi t s) . There i s, however, an
agr eement on how forest i s char act eri zed i n the Marr akech Accords i n t erms of t ree
canopy cover, hei ght and area t hreshol ds. Count ri es may sel ect a canopy cover
t hreshol d of bet ween 10 and 30%, wi t h a hei ght mini mum of bet ween 2 and 5 met ers
( of t rees at mat uri t y) , and an area cri t erion wi t h a mini mum bet ween 0.05 and 1
hect ar e. Whet her an ar ea of f orest drops bel ow t he t hreshol d and a new use occurs,
t hen t he l and i s consi dered t o have been deforest ed. I n ot her words, i t has undergone
change from forest t o non- forest ( i .e., t o agri cul ture, past ure, urban devel opment , et c) .
Loss of forest rel at ed t o a change i n l and use t hat pr event s nat ural forest re- growt h
usuall y resul t s i n consi derabl e carbon emi ssi ons, and prevent i ng deforest at i on from
happening i s t herefore a pri mary obj ect i ve of REDD+ ( see sect i on 2.2 and 2.4 for
moni tori ng t echni ques) .
Degradat ion: whil e t here ar e more t han 50 defini tions of forest degr adat i on ( Lund, 2009,
Si mul a, 2009) ; from t he point of vi ew of cli mat e change pol i cy and t he I PCC nat i onal
est i mat i on and report ing gui delines, ref ers t o loss of carbon st ock wi t hin forest s t hat
remai n forest s ( UNFCCC, 2008). More speci fical l y, degradat i on represent s a human-
induced negat i ve i mpact on carbon st ocks, wi t h measured f orest vari abl es ( i .e. canopy
cover) r emai ning above t he t hreshol d for t he defi ni ti on of forest . Moreover, t o be
di st ingui shed from (sust ai nabl e) forest r y act i vi ties, t he decr ease shoul d be consi dered of
1- 10
some l evel of persi st ence. A group convened by I PCC t o r esol ve t he defini tion of
degr adat i on (Penman et al ., 2003) was unable t o produce a cl ear defini tion because
losses of biomass i n forest may be t emporary or cycli cal and t herefore essent i all y
sust ai nabl e, even i f on aver age t he carbon st ock remains below t hat of int act f orest .
Real i zing t hat i n addi ti on t o t he vari abl es used t o defi ne def orest at i on, a t i me el ement
was al so required, t he I PCC exper t group al so recogni zed t hat sel ect i ng such a t hreshol d
i s di ffi cul t . Thi s i s in part because forest ry cycl es ar e usual l y much l onger t han
commi t ment or accounti ng peri ods under cli mat e change agreement s. A speci al UNFCCC
workshop on degradat i on convened i n 2008 and di scussed various met hodologi cal i ssues
rel at i ng t o degradat i on, but al t hough some i nt er est i ng suggest i ons emerged, a cl ear
defini tion was not concl uded and not agreed ( UNFCCC, 2008) .
Measuri ng forest degr adat i on and rel at ed forest carbon st ock changes i s more
compl i cat ed and l ess effi ci ent t han measuri ng deforest at i on si nce t he former i s based on
changes i n the st ruct ure of t he forest t hat do not i mpl y a change in l and use and
t heref ore i s not easil y det ect abl e t hrough remot e sensi ng. There i s no one agreed
met hod t o moni tor forest degr adat i on. The choice of diff erent approaches depends on a
number of f act ors i ncluding t he t ype of degradat i on, avai l abl e dat a, capaci ti es and
resources, and t he possi bili ti es and l i mi t at i ons of vari ous measurement and moni t oring
approaches ( see Sect ion 2.3 and 2.5) .
Al t hough degradat ion has been grouped wi t h deforest at i on as f ar as REDD+ i s concerned
(i t forms ¨ t he second D¨ in REDD+ ) , I PCC LULUCF gui dance for est i mat ion and reporting
on “ forest l and t hat remains forest l and” make t he more l ogi cal l ink of degradat ion to
forest management , si nce t hi s reporti ng requires est i mat i on of net carbon change i n
forest s remai ning forest s (i ncrease in carbon st ocks in some l ocat ions mi nus degradat i on
losses i n others) . I ncreases – forest enhancement – may be achi eved t hrough a number
of human act i vi ti es such as enri chment pl anting, but al so by regul at ion of off-t ake t o
l evel s whi ch can be more t han support ed by t he rat e of nat ural increment ( t hi s mi ght be
t hought of as specul ar t o degr adat ion) . Sust ainable management of forest s ( SMF)
gener al l y means bringing the rat e of ext ract i on in line wi th t he rat e of nat ural growt h or
increment . The l inking of degradat ion to deforest at i on rat her t han t o t hese new
el ement s i n REDD+ i s part l y t he resul t of t he (in many cases f al se) i dea t hat degr adat i on
j ust a st ep on t he pat h t o ful l deforest at i on. I n reali t y, def orest at i on i s usuall y t he resul t
of a deci sion by a part i cul ar act or t o change land use, whil e degradat i on i s usuall y a
gradual process, resul ti ng from deci si ons of many act ors over t i me as r egards t o
ext r act i on of forest product s. But t he conventional l ink bet ween deforest at i on and
degr adat i on i s partl y because degradat ion, li ke deforest at ion, i s responsi bl e for
emi ssi ons, whi l e t he new el ement s under REDD+ have t o do wi t h si nks.
Sust ai nabl e Management of Forest s ( SMF) i s rel at ed t o sust ai nabl e forest management ,
a t er m usuall y used i n t he cont ext of commerci al ti mber oper at i ons, bet t er descri bed as
sust ai ned yi el d management . But t her e ar e ot her ways i n whi ch forest can be managed
sust ai nabl y, for exampl e t hrough communi t y forest management ( CFM) .
From a pr act i cal , act i on- ori ent ed poi nt of vi ew i t woul d t herefore seem t o make mor e
sense t o consi der degradat ion as a form of ( unsust ai nabl e) forest management , whi ch
can best be t ackl ed t hrough i mproved management and st rengt hened i nst i tuti onal
arrangement s, rat her t han as a mi nor form of deforest at i on, as i t i s oft en seen at
present . Thi s i s because degradat i on i s a mani fest at i on of t he ways t hat peopl e use
forest t hat remains forest , rat her t han a compl et e change of l and use. Al so, from a
moni tori ng perspect i ve, degradat ion, li ke forest st ocks enhancement and SFM, r equi res
sequent i al st ock change measurement s, whi ch is rat her di fferent f rom what i s needed for
moni tori ng def orest at i on. For assessi ng reducti ons i n degradat ion, as i n assessi ng forest
st ocks enhancement and SFM, what mat t er s i s t he change in t he rat e at which carbon
st ock had been changing in t he reference l evel .
The remai ni ng i t em under REDD+ i s forest conservat ion. Thi s concept i s new t o t he
UNFCCC di scussi ons in t he sense t hat no si mi l ar forest - rel at ed concept has been agr eed
upon before by t he part i es. The following consider at i ons are i mport ant i n underst andi ng
t he rol e of forest conservat i on under REDD+ :
1- 11
 i t i s an effort t o decrease t he t hreat t hat forest s may become a source of carbon
emi ssi ons i n t he fut ure and t o ensure permanence by est abl i shing long- t erm
commi t ment s t o preserve forest ;
 i t i mpli es t hat di st urbances due t o human act ivi ti es i n such areas ar e mi ni mal ,
and i n sum, wi ll resul t in a net zero carbon bal ance ( or nat ural i ncrease) in t he
near and long-t erm;
 i t may r efer t o any f orest t ype wi t hin a country, but in part i cul ar t o t hose not
consi dered at ri sk of di st urbance or carbon st ock l oss t hrough human act i vi ti es;
and
 i t will resul t in t he conti nued suppl y not onl y of carbon but al so of other
ecosyst em servi ces, provi ded t he ecosyst em remains int act .
Foll owing I PCC good pract i ce gui dance, forest conservat ion can be underst ood as a
speci fi c t ype of forest management and i s al ready cover ed under t he aegi s of “f orest
l and remai ning forest l and” . The moni t oring obj ect i ve i s t o veri fy t hat i n conservi ng
forest s ( i .e. t hrough a poli cy), t he carbon- st ock changes devi at e from t hose fi xed in t he
refer ence l evel
11
. So t hat compensat ion for forest conservat ion under REDD+ woul d work
as deforest at i on, degradat ion, forest enhancement and SFM t hat wi ll al l be based on
credi t s i ssued proportional l y t o changes i n t he rat e of change of carbon st ock.
1.4 EMERGI NG I SSUES FOR REDD+ I MPLEMENTATI ON
As UNFCCC negot i at i ons evol ve and REDD+ moves t o i mpl ement at i on, parti ci pati ng
count ri es wi ll need t o address a number of i ssues i n addi tion to devel opi ng t he capaci t y
t o monit or and report on carbon emi ssi ons. These i ssues incl ude:
 t o i denti fy l and use, l and-use change and forest ry act i vi t i es in devel oping
count ri es, i n part i cul ar t hose t hat ar e li nked t o t he dri vers of deforest at i on and
forest degr adat i on in order t o devi se effect i ve pol i ci es t o reduce emi ssi ons;
 t he consi derat i on of saf eguards t o ensure t he consi st ency of nat i onal programs,
t ransparency, prot ect i on of biodi versi t y and knowl edge and ri ght s of
st akehol ders; and moni tori ng of di spl acement of emi ssions and permanence at a
nat i onal scal e, and
 t he consi derat i on and i nt egrat i on of nat ional and sub- nat ional moni tori ng t o
ensure t he t r acki ng of REDD+ act i vi ti es; whi ch oft en are of local focus.
Remot e sensi ng provi des some capabil i t y t o address t hese i ssues, t hough ground- based
informat i on and ot her dat a from nat i onal and i nt ernat ional census i s an i mport ant
component . Sect i on 2.9 highlight s t echni cal approaches t o addr ess t hese i ssues,
focusi ng on t he cont ri but ion of remot e sensing.
1.5 ROADMAP FOR THE SOURCEBOOK
Thi s sourcebook i s desi gned t o be a gui de t o devel op ref erence l evel s and t o desi gn a
syst em for measurement , moni toring and est i mat i ng carbon dioxi de emi ssions and
removal s from deforest at i on, changes i n carbon st ocks i n forest l ands and forest at ion at


11
The aut hors do not beli eve t hat under REDD+ t her e will be fi ve di fferent refer ence
l evel s, one for each act i vi t y. I t i s beli eved t hat t her e wi ll be a singl e refer ence l evel ,
whi ch will compensat e t he i mpact of all fi ve act i vi ti es on forest carbon st ocks. Because of
t he presence of conservat ion, enhancement and degr adat i on ( deforest at i on i s at t he end
an ext r eme case of degradat i on) , t he reference l evel could consi st i n a net reduct i on of
emi ssi ons/ i ncrease of removal s or i n a li mi t ed i ncrease of emi ssions.
1- 12
t he nat i onal scal e, based on t he general requi rement s set by t he UNFCCC and t he
speci fi c met hodologi es for t he l and use and forest sect ors provi ded by t he I PCC.
The sourcebook provi des t ranspar ent met hods and procedures t hat ar e desi gned t o
produce accurat e est i mat es of changes in forest area and carbon st ocks and resul ting
emi ssi ons and removal s of carbon, in a format t hat i s user -f ri endl y. I t i s int ended t o
compl ement t he GPG- LULUCF and GL- AFOLU by provi ding addi tional expl anat ion,
cl ari fi cat i on and enhanced met hodologi es for obtai ning and anal yzing key dat a.
The sourcebook i s not desi gned as a pri mer on how t o anal yze remot e sensi ng dat a nor
how to coll ect fi el d measurement s of forest carbon st ocks as i t i s expect ed t hat t he users
of thi s sourcebook woul d have some expert i se in ei t her of t hese areas.
The remainder of t he sourcebook i s organi zed i n t hree mai n chapt ers as follows:
Chapt er 2: GUI DANCE on METHODS
Chapt er 3: PRACTI CAL EXAMPLES
Chapt er 4: COUNTRY CAPACI TY BUI LDI NG
2- 13
2 GUI DANCE ON METHODS
The focus of Chapt er 2 i s on t he descri ptions of avail abl e and operat i onal met hods for
dat a coll ect ion and measurement s t o capt ure changes i n forest areas and carbon st ocks.
St rat i fi cat ion and sampl ing st rat egi es for est i mat i ng forest ar ea changes and carbon
st ock changes i n the per spect i ve of REDD+ act i vi ti es are descri bed. Exi st i ng approaches
t o est i mat e emi ssi ons due t o l and cover changes ar e descri bed wi t h t hei r requirement s
in t erms of dat a, l evel s of compl exi t y and expect ed out put s and accur aci es.
Chapt er 2 i s organi zed as follows:
2.1 Monit oring of changes of forest areas ( deforest at i on and forest at i on)
2.2 Monit oring of forest area changes wi t hin forest s
2.3 Est i mat ing carbon st ocks and st ock changes
2.4 Est i mat ion of carbon emi ssi ons and removal s
2.5 Est i mat ing GHG’s emi ssi ons from biomass burni ng
2.6 Est i mat ion of Uncert ainti es
2.7 Met hods t o address emergi ng i ssues
2.8 Gui dance on reporting
2.9 Evol vi ng t echnol ogi es
Chapt er 3 present s Pract i cal Exampl es on t he operat ional appl i cat i on of met hods
descri bed i n Chapt er 2, wi t h recommendat i ons for capaci t y building.
Sect ions 2.1 and 2. 2 present t he st at e of t he art f or dat a and approaches t o be used
for moni t oring forest ar ea changes at t he nat i onal scal e in t ropi cal count ri es using
remot e sensi ng i mager y. I t i ncludes approaches and dat a for moni toring changes of
forest areas ( i .e. deforest at i on and forest at i on) and for moni toring of changes wi t hin
forest l and (i .e. forest l and remai ni ng forest s land, e.g. forest degradat ion) . I t i ncl udes
gener al recommendat i ons ( e.g. for est abli shing hi st ori cal reference scenarios) and
det ail ed recommended st eps for moni t oring changes of forest ar eas or i n forest areas.
The Sect ion builds from “ Approach 3” of t he I PCC GL 2006 for represent i ng t he act i vi t y
dat a, or t he change in ar ea of di fferent l and cat egori es. Approach 3 ext ends Approach 2,
whi ch invol ves t r acki ng of l and conversions bet ween cat egori es, by usi ng spat i all y
expli ci t l and conversi on i nformat i on. Onl y Approach 3 allows est i mat ing gross- net
changes wi t hin a cat egory, e.g. t o det ect a deforest at i on fol lowed by afforest at i on.
Sect ion 2 .3 present s guidance on t he est i mat ion of t he emi ssion fact ors—t he changes
in above ground biomass and organi c carbon soi l st ocks of t he forest s bei ng def orest ed
and degr aded.
The second component s i nvol ved i n assessi ng emi ssions from REDD+ rel at ed act i vi ti es i s
t he emi ssi on fact ors—t hat i s, t he changes i n carbon st ocks of t he forest s undergoi ng
change t hat ar e combi ned wi th t he act i vi t y dat a for est i mat ing t he emi ssions. The focus
in t hi s Sect i on will be on est i mat i ng emi ssi on fact ors. Gui dance i s provi ded on: (i ) whi ch
of t he t hree I PCC GL AFOLU Ti ers t o be used (wi t h increasi ng compl exi t y and cost s of
moni tori ng forest carbon st ocks) ( ii) pot enti al met hods for t he st r at i fi cat i on by Carbon
St ock of a count ry’s forest s and (iii ) act ual Est i mat i on of Carbon St ocks of Forest s
Undergoi ng Change (st eps t o i mpl ement an i nvent ory) . I ssues of l and st rat i fi cat i on t o
assess carbon st ock changes ar e al so addressed. Al t hough l it tl e at t ent i on i s gi ven here t o
areas undergoing afforest at i on and reforest at i on, t he gui dance provi ded will be
appl i cabl e.
Sect ion 2.4 present s gui dance on the est i mat ion of carbon emi ssi ons and removal s
from changes in forest s ar eas. Thi s Sect ion builds on previous Sect i ons and deal s i n
2- 14
part i cul ar on t he l inkage bet ween t he remot e sensi ng i mager y est i mat es of changes in
areas, est i mat es of carbon st ocks from fi el d / in- si t u dat a and t he use of biophysi cal
model s of carbon emi ssi on and removal s.
The met hodol ogi es descri bed here are deri ved from t he 2006 I PCC AFOLU Gui delines and
t he 2003 I PCC GPG- LULUCF, and focus on t he Ti er 2 I PCC met hods, whi ch requi re
count ry- speci fi c dat a, and Ti er 3 I PCC met hods whi ch require expert i se i n more compl ex
model s or det ail ed nat ional forest i nvent ori es. I ssues of l evel s of compl exi t y of t he
model s and propagat i on of errors wil l al so be addressed.
Sect ion 2 .5 ( Esti mat i ng GHG’s emi ssions from bi omass burning) i s focused on fi res in
forest envi ronment s and approaches t o est imat e gr eenhouse gas emi ssions due t o
veget at i on fires, usi ng avail abl e sat elli t e- based fi re monit ori ng product s, biomass
est i mat es and coeffi ci ent s. I t provi des i nformat ion ont he I PCC gui delines for est i mat i ng
fi re- rel at ed emi ssion and on exi st ing syst ems for observi ng and mappi ng fires and
burned areas.
Sect ion 2. 6 ( Est i mat i on of Uncert ai nti es) ai ms t o provi de some basi c el ement s for a
correct est i mat ion on uncert ai nti es. Aft er a bri ef expl anat i on of general concept s, some
key aspect s li nked t o t he quant i fi cat ion of uncert ai nti es are il lust rat ed for bot h area and
carbon st ocks. The Sect i on concl udes wi t h t he met hods avail abl e for combi ning
uncert ai nti es and wi t h t he st andard report ing and document at i on requirement s.
The proper manner of deal ing wi th uncert ai nt y i s fundament al in t he I PCC and UNFCCC
cont ext s.
Sect ion 2.7 ( Met hods t o address emerging issues) focuses on t he remot e sensi ng
cont ri butions t o emergi ng i ssues for REDD+ i mpl ement at i on. These i ssues i nclude:
 t o i denti fy l and use, l and- use change and forest ry act i vi ti es t hat are l inked t o t he
dri vers of deforest at i on and forest degradat i on;
 t he consi derat i on of saf eguards t o ensure t he consi st ency of nat i onal programs,
t ransparency, prot ect i on of biodi ver si t y and ri ght s of st akehol ders, and
moni tori ng of di spl acement of emi ssi ons and permanence at a nat i onal scal e; and
 t he consi derat i on and i nt egrat i on of nat ional and sub- nat ional moni tori ng t o
ensure t he t r acki ng of REDD+ act i vi ti es.
Sect ion 2.8 ( Gui dance on reporting) gi ves an overvi ew of t he current reporting
requi rement s under UNFCCC, i ncluding t he gener al underl ying princi pl es and t he t ypi cal
st ruct ure of a GHG i nvent ory. The maj or chal l enges t hat devel opi ng count ri es will likel y
encount er when i mpl ement i ng t he reporting princi pl es ar e outl ined. The reporting
concept s al ready agreed upon in a UNFCCC cont ext ar e descri bed t oget her wi t h a
conservat i ve approach whi ch may hel p to overcome some of t he pot ent i al chall enges.
Under t he UNFCCC, t he informat i on report ed i n a Part y’s GHG invent ory r epresent s t he
basi s for assessi ng each Part y’ s performance as compared t o i t s commi t ment s or
refer ence scenario, and t her efore repr esent s t he basi s for assi gning event ual incent i ves
or penal t i es. The qual it y of GHG invent ori es rel i es not onl y upon t he robust ness of t he
sci ence underpinni ng t he met hodol ogi es but al so on t he way t hi s informat i on i s compil ed
and present ed.
Sect ion 2 .9 (Evol ving t echnologi es) descri bes new t echnol ogi es and approaches whi ch
are bei ng devel oped for moni toring changes in forest area, forest degr adat i on and
carbon st ocks. These evol vi ng t echnologi es and dat a sources ar e descri bed wi t h
consi derat i on of t hei r devel opment st at us, compl ement ar y pot ent i al , avail abil it y for
devel opi ng count ry, resources needed for i mplement at i on, future perspect i ves of utili t y
enhancement . The descri pti ons are li mi t ed t o basi c background informat i on and general
approaches, pot ent i al s and li mi t at i ons.

2- 15
2.1 MONI TORI NG OF CHANGES I N FOREST AREA
Fr édéri c Achard, Joint Resear ch Cent re, I t al y.
Gregory P. Asner, Carnegi e I nsti t ution, St anford, USA
Rut h De Fri es, Columbi a Uni versi t y, USA
Mart i n Herol d, Wageningen Uni versi t y, The Net herl ands
Danil o Molli cone, Food and Agri cul ture Organi zat ion, I t al y
Devendra Pandey, Forest Survey of I ndi a, I ndi a
Carl os Souza Jr., I MAZON, Brazil
2. 1. 1 Scope of chapter
Chapt er 2.1 present s t he st at e of the art for dat a and approaches t o be used for
monit oring forest area changes at the nat ional scale in t ropical count ries using
remot e sensing imagery. I t includes approaches and data for monit oring
changes of forest areas ( i.e. deforest at ion and forest at ion) and for monitoring
of changes wit hin forest land ( i.e. forest land remaining forest s land, e.g.
degradation) . I t includes general recommendations ( e.g. for est ablishing
hist orical dat aset) and det ailed recommended steps for monit oring changes of
forest areas or in forest areas.
The chapt er present s t he mi ni mum requi rement s t o devel op first order nat i onal f orest
area change dat abases, using t ypi cal and int ernat i onal l y accept ed met hods. There ar e
more advanced and cost l y approaches t hat may l ead t o more accurat e resul t s and woul d
meet t he report ing requirement s, but t hey are not present ed here.
The remot e sensing t echni ques can be used for t wo purposes: ( i ) t o monit or changes i n
forest ar eas ( i .e. from forest t o non forest l and – deforest at i on – and f rom non forest
l and to forest l and - forest at i on) and (ii ) t o moni tor area changes wi t hin forest l and
whi ch l eads t o changes i n carbon st ocks ( e.g. degr adat i on) . The t echni ques t o moni tor
changes i n forest ar eas (e.g. deforest at i on) provi de hi gh- accur acy ‘ act i vi t y dat a’ ( i .e.
area est i mat es) and can al so al low reduci ng t he uncert ai nt y of emi ssion fact ors t hrough
spat i al mappi ng of mai n for est ecosyst ems. Monit ori ng of forest at i on area has great er
uncert ai nt y t han moni toring def orest at ion. The t echni ques t o moni tor changes wi thin
forest l and ( whi ch l eads t o changes i n carbon st ocks) provi de l ower accuracy ‘act i vi t y
dat a’ and gi ves poor compl ement ary informat i on on emi ssion fact ors.
Sect i on 2.1.2 descri bes t he remot e sensi ng t echni ques t o moni tor changes i n forest
areas ( i . e. deforest at i on and expansi on of forest area) .
Sect i on 2.1.3 focuses on moni toring area changes wi t hin forest l and whi ch l eads t o
reduct i on in carbon st ocks ( i .e. degradat i on) . Techni ques t o moni t or changes wi t hi n
forest l and whi ch l eads t o i ncrease of carbon st ocks ( e.g. t hrough forest management )
are not consi dered in t he present ver sion.
2. 1. 2 Monit ori ng of changes of forest areas - deforest at i on and
forest at ion
2.1 .2.1 General recommendat ion for est ablishing a histori cal reference scenario
As mi ni mum requi rement , i t i s recommended t o use Landsat - t ype remot e sensi ng dat a
( 30 m resol ution) for year s 1990, 2000 and 2005 for moni toring forest cover changes
wi th 1 t o 5 ha Mini mum Mapping Unit ( MMU) . I t mi ght be necessar y t o use dat a from a
2- 16
year prior or aft er 1990, 2000, and 2005 due t o avail abili t y and cl oud cont ami nat ion.
These dat a will allow assessi ng changes of forest areas (i .e. t o deri ve area deforest ed
and forest regrowt h for t he peri od consi dered) and, i f desi red, produci ng a map of
nat i onal forest ar ea ( t o deri ve deforest at i on rat es) usi ng a common forest defini tion. A
hybri d approach combini ng aut omat ed di git al segment at i on and/ or cl assi fi cat ion
t echni ques wi t h vi sual int erpret at i on and/ or validat i on of t he resul ti ng cl asses/ pol ygons
should be preferred as si mpl e, robust and cost effect i ve met hod.
There may be di fferent spat i al uni t s for t he det ect i on of forest and of forest change.
Remot e sensi ng dat a anal yses become more di ffi cul t and more expensi ve wi t h small er
Mini mum Mapping Uni t s ( MMU) i .e. more det ail ed MMU’s i ncrease mappi ng effort s and
usuall y decrease change mapping accuracy. There are sever al MMU exampl es from
current nat i onal and regi onal remot e sensi ng monit ori ng syst ems: Brazil PRODES syst em
for moni toring def orest at i on ( 6.25 ha i ni ti al l y
12
, now 1 ha for di gi t al processi ng) , I ndi a
nat i onal forest moni t oring (1 ha), EU- wide CORI NE l and cover/ l and use change
moni tori ng (5 ha) , ‘GMES Servi ce El ement ’ Forest Moni tori ng (0.5 ha) , and Conservat ion
I nt ernat ional nat ional case st udi es ( 2 ha) .
2.1 .2.2 Key feat ures
Present l y t he onl y free gl obal mi d- resoluti on (30m) remot e sensi ng i mager y ar e from
NASA ( Landsat sat elli t es) for around year s 1990, 2000, and 2005 ( t he mi d- decadal
dat aset 2005/ 2006 has j ust been compl et ed) wi th some quali t y i ssues i n some par t s of
t he t ropi cs ( clouds, seasonali t y, et c) . All Landsat dat a from US archi ve ( USGS) ar e
avail abl e for f ree since t he end of 2008. Brazil ian/ Chi nese r emot e sensi ng i magery from
t he CBERS sat elli t es i s al so now freel y avail abl e in developing count ri es.
The peri od 2000-2005 i s more represent at i ve of recent hi st ori cal changes and pot ent i all y
more sui t abl e due t o t he avail abi lit y of compl ement ary dat a duri ng a recent t i me frame.
Speci fi cat ions on mi ni mum requirement s for i mage int erpret at i on are:
 Geo- locat i on accuracy < 1 pi xel , i .e. < 30m,
 Mini mum mappi ng uni t shoul d be bet ween 1 and 6 ha,
 A consi st ency assessment shoul d be carri ed out .
2.1 .2.3 Recommended st eps
The following st eps ar e needed for a nat i onal assessment t hat i s sci enti fi cal l y credi bl e
and can be t echni call y accompli shed by i n- count ry exper t s:
1. Sel ect ion of t he approach:
a. Assessment of nat i onal ci rcumst ances, part i cularl y exi st ing defi ni ti ons
and dat a sources
b. Defini tion of change assessment approach by deci ding on:
i . Sat elli t e i magery
ii . Sampl ing versus wal l t o wall coverage
iii. Full y vi sual versus semi - aut omat ed int erpret at i on
i v. Accuracy or consi st ency assessment
c. Pl an and budget moni tori ng exer ci se i ncl uding:
i . Hard and Soft ware r esources
ii . Request ed Trai ning
2. I mpl ement at i on of t he monit oring syst em:
a. Sel ect ion of t he forest defi ni tion


12
The PRODES proj ect of Brazilian Space Agency ( I NPE) has been producing annual rat es of gross
def orest at ion since 1988 using a minimum mapping unit of 6. 25 ha. PRODES does not include
ref orest at ion.
2- 17
b. Desi gnat i on of forest ar ea for acquiring sat elli t e dat a
c. Sel ect ion and acqui si tion of the sat elli t e dat a
d. Anal ysi s of t he sat elli t e dat a ( preprocessi ng and int erpret at i on)
e. Assessment of t he accuracy

2.1 .2.4 Select ion and implement at ion of a monit oring approach - deforestat ion
2.1 .2.4.1 Step 1: Select ion of t he forest definit ion
Current l y Annex I Part i es use t he UNFCCC framework defini ti on of forest and
deforest at i on adopt ed for i mpl ement at i on of Arti cl e 3.3 and 3.4 ( see sect i on 1.2.2) and,
wi thout ot her agr eed def ini tion, t hi s def ini tion i s consi dered her e as t he working
defini tion. Sub- cat egori es of forest s ( e. g. forest t ypes) can be defi ned wi thi n t he
framework defini tion of forest .
Remot e sensi ng i magery all ows l and cover i nformat i on onl y t o be obt ai ned. Local exper t
or fi el d i nformat i on i s needed t o deri ve l and use est i mat es.
2.1 .2.4.2 St ep 2 : Designation of forest area for acquiring sat ellit e dat a
Many t ypes of l and cover exi st wi t hin nat i onal boundari es. REDD+ moni t oring needs t o
cover all forest ar eas and t he same ar ea needs t o be moni t ored for each r eport ing
period. For t he fi rst el ement of a REDD+ mechani sm rel at ed t o decreases i n forest ar ea
i t wi ll not be necessary or pract i cal in many cases t o moni t or t he ent i re nat i onal ext ent
t hat i ncl udes non-forest l and t ypes. Therefore, a forest mask can be desi gnat ed i ni ti all y
t o i dentify t he area t o be moni t ored for each reporti ng peri od (referred t o in Sect i on
1. 2.2 as t he benchmark map) .
I deall y, wall - t o- wal l assessment s of t he ent i re nat i onal ext ent woul d be carri ed out t o
identi fy forest ed ar ea according t o UNFCCC f orest defi ni ti ons at t he begi nning and end of
t he refer ence and assessment periods ( t o be deci ded by t he Part i es t o t he UNFCCC) . Thi s
approach may not be pr act i cal for l arge count ri es. Exi st ing forest maps at appropri at e
spat i al resolution and for a rel ati vel y recent t i me coul d be used t o i denti fy t he over all
forest ext ent .







2.1 .2.4.3 St ep 3 : Select ion of sat ellit e imagery and coverage
Fundament al requi rement s of nat i onal moni toring syst ems are t hat t hey measur e
changes t hroughout al l forest ed area, use consist ent met hodologi es at r epeat ed int erval s
t o obt ain accurat e resul t s, and veri fy resul t s wit h ground- based or ver y hi gh resol ution
observat ions. The onl y pract i cal approach for such moni t oring syst ems i s t hrough
int erpret at i on of remot el y sensed dat a support ed by ground- based obser vat i ons. Remot e
sensi ng i ncl udes dat a acquired by sensors on board ai rcraft and space- based pl at forms.
Mul ti pl e met hods are appropri at e and rel i abl e for forest moni t oring at nat i onal scal es.
Many dat a from opti cal sensors at a vari et y of resolut ions and cost s ar e avail abl e for
moni tori ng deforest at i on ( Tabl e 2.1.1) .

I mport ant principles in identifying t he overall forest ext ent are:

 The area shoul d incl ude all f orest s wi t hin t he nat ional boundari es
 A consi st ent over all forest ext ent shoul d be used for moni t oring all forest changes
during assessment peri od
2- 18
Table 2.1 .1. Util it y of opti cal sensors at mul ti pl e resol uti ons for deforest at i on
moni tori ng.
Sensor &
resolut ion
Examples of
current
sensor s
Minimum
mapping unit
( change)
Cost Utilit y for monit oring
Coarse
( 250- 1000
m)
SPOT-VGT
( 1998- )
Terra- MODI S
( 2000- )
Envi sat - MERI S
( 2004 - )
~ 100 ha

~ 10-20 ha



Low or free
Consi st ent pan- t ropi cal
annual moni t oring to
identi fy l arge cl eari ngs and
locat e “ hot spot s” for
furt her anal ysi s wi t h mi d
resol uti on
Medi um
( 10-60 m)
Landsat TM or
ETM+ ,
Terra- ASTER
I RS AWi Fs or
LI SS I I I
CBERS HRCCD
DMC
SPOT HRV
0.5 - 5 ha
Landsat &
CBERS are free;
for others:
< $0.001/ km²
for hi st ori cal
dat a
$0.02/ km²
t o $0.5/ km2 for
recent dat a
Pri mary t ool t o map
deforest at i on and est i mat e
ar ea change
Fi ne
( < 5 m)
I KONOS
Qui ckBi rd
Aeri al phot os
< 0.1 ha
Hi gh to very
hi gh
$2 -30 / km²
Val idat ion of resul t s from
coarser resolution anal ysi s,
and t rai ni ng of al gori t hms

Availabilit y of medium resolut ion dat a
The USA Nat i onal Aeronauti cs and Space Admini st r at i on ( NASA) l aunched a sat ell i t e wi t h
a mi d-resol ution sensor t hat was abl e t o coll ect l and i nformat i on at a l andscape scal e.
ERTS- 1 was l aunched on Jul y 23, 1972. Thi s sat elli t e, renamed ‘Landsat ’, was t he fi rst i n
a seri es ( seven t o dat e) of Eart h- observi ng sat elli t es t hat have permi t t ed conti nuous
cover age si nce 1972. Subsequent sat elli t es have been l aunched ever y 2- 3 years. St ill i n
operat i on Landsat 5 and 7 cover t he same ground t rack repeat edl y every 16 days.
Al most compl et e gl obal cover age from t hese Landsat sat el lit es ar e avail abl e at l ow or no
cost for earl y 1990s, earl y 2000s and around year 2005 from NASA
13
, t he USGS
14
, or
from t he Uni versi t y of Maryl and' s Gl obal Land Cover Facili t y
15
. These dat a serve a key
rol e in est abl i shing hi st ori cal deforest at i on rat es, t hough in some part s of t he humi d
t ropi cs ( e.g. Cent r al Afri ca) persi st ent cl oudiness i s a maj or l i mi t at i on to usi ng t hese
dat a. Until year 2003, Landsat , gi ven i t s low cost and unrest ri ct ed li cense use, has been
t he workhorse source for mi d- resol ution (10- 50 m) dat a anal ysi s.
On April 2003, t he Landsat 7 ETM+ scan l ine correct or fai l ed resul ting in dat a gaps
out si de of t he cent r al portion of acqui red i mages, seri ousl y compromi sing dat a quali t y
for l and cover moni toring. Gi ven t hi s f ail ure, users woul d need t o expl ore how t he
ensuing dat a gap mi ght be fill ed at a r easonabl e cost wi t h al t ernat i ve sources of dat a i n
order t o meet t he needs for operat i onal deci si on- maki ng.
Al t ernat i ve sources of dat a i ncl ude Landsat - 5, ASTER, SPOT, I RS, CBERS or DMC dat a
( Tabl e 2.1.2) . NASA, in coll aborat i on wi th USGS, ini ti at ed an effort t o acqui re and
compose appropri at e i magery t o gener at e a mi d- decadal ( around year s 2005/ 2006) dat a


13
ht t ps: / / zulu.ssc. nasa. gov/ mrsid
14
ht t p: / / edc. usgs. gov/ product s/ sat ellit e/ landsat _ort ho. ht ml
15
ht t p: / / glcf app. umiacs. umd. edu/
2- 19
set from such al t ernat i ve sources. The combi ned Archi ved Cover age i n EROS Archi ve of
t he Landsat 5 TM and Landsat - 7 ETM+ reprocessed- fil l product for t he years 2005/ 2006
and beyond covers more t han 90% of t he l and ar ea of t he Eart h. These dat a have been
processed t o a new ort horect i fed st andard usi ng dat a from NASA’s Shut tl e Radar
Topography Mi ssion.
The USGS has est abli shed a no charge Web access t o t he full Landsat USGS ar chi ve
16
.
The full Landsat 7 ETM+ USGS archi ve ( si nce 1999) and al l USGS archi ved Landsat 5 TM
dat a ( si nce 1984) , Landsat 4 TM (1982- 1985) and Landsat 1-5 MSS (1972-1994) are
now avail abl e for orderi ng at no charge.
Duri ng t he sel ect ion of t he scenes t o use in any assessment , seasonal i t y of cli mat e has
t o be consi dered: i n si tuat i ons where seasonal forest t ypes ( i .e. a di st inct dry season
where t r ees may drop t hei r l eaves) exi st more t han one scene shoul d be used. I nt er-
annual vari abili t y has t o be consi dered based on cli mat i c vari abil i t y.



16
ht t p: / / ldcm. usgs. gov/ pdf / Landsat _Dat a_Policy. pdf
2- 20
Table 2.1.2. Present avail abili t y of opti cal mi d- resol ution (10-60 m) sensors.
Nat ion
Sat ellit e &
sensor
Resolut ion
& coverage
Cost for data
acquisit ion
( ar chive
17
)
Feat ure
USA
Landsat - 5
TM
30 m
180× 180 km²
All dat a
ar chi ved at
USGS are free
I mages ever y 16 days
t o any sat ell i t e recei ving
st at i on. Operat i ng
beyond expect ed
li feti me.
USA
Landsat - 7
ETM+
30 m
60× 180 km²
All dat a
ar chi ved at
USGS are free
On Apri l 2003 t he
failure of the scan line
correct or resul t ed in
dat a gaps out si de of t he
cent ral porti on of
i mages, seri ousl y
compromi si ng dat a
qual i t y
USA/ Japan Terra ASTER
15 m
60× 60 km²
60 US$/ scene
0.02 US$/ km²
Dat a i s acqui red on
request and i s not
routi nel y col l ect ed for
all areas
I ndi a
I RS- P2 LI SS-
I I I & AWI FS
23.5 & 56 m
Aft er an experi ment al
phase, AWI FS i mages
can be acquired on a
routi ne basi s.
Chi na/ Brazil
CBERS- 2
HRCCD
20 m
Fr ee i n Brazil
and pot ent i al l y
for ot her
devel oping
count ri es
Experi ment al ; Brazil
uses on- demand i mages
t o bol st er t hei r
cover age.
Al geri a/ China/
Ni geri a/
Turkey/ UK
DMC
32 m
160× 660 km²
3000 €/ scene
0.03 €/ km²
Commer ci al ; Brazil uses
al ongsi de Landsat dat a
Fr ance
SPOT-5
HRVI R
10-20 m
60× 60 km²
2000 €/ scene
0.5 €/ km²
Commer ci al I ndonesi a &
Thai l and used al ongsi de
Landsat dat a

Opt i cal mi d- resoluti on dat a have been t he pri mary t ool for deforest at ion moni t oring.
Ot her, newer, t ypes of sensors, e.g. Radar (ERS1/ 2 SAR, JERS- 1, ENVI SAT- ASAR and
ALOS PALSAR) and Li dar, are pot ent i al l y useful and appropri at e. Radar, i n parti cul ar,
all evi at es t he subst ant i al l imi t at ions of opti cal dat a i n persi st ent l y cl oudy part s of t he
t ropi cs. Dat a from Li dar and Radar have been demonst rat ed t o be useful i n proj ect
st udi es, but so far, t hey are not wi del y used operat i onall y for forest moni t oring over
l arge ar eas. Over t he next fi ve years or so, t he ut ili t y of radar may be enhanced
dependi ng on dat a acqui si tion, access and sci ent ifi c development s.
I n summary, Landsat - t ype dat a around year s 1990, 2000, 2005 2010 will be most
sui t abl e t o assess hi st ori cal rat es and pat t erns of deforest at ion. The avail abili t y of free
and open Landsat dat a has i ncreased for t he more recent year s and more det ail ed
assessment s of l ess t han fi ve year s cover age coul d be possi bl e in many part s of t he
worl d.


17
Some acquisit ions can be programmed ( e. g. , DMC, SPOT) . The cost of programmed dat a is
generally at l east t wice t he cost of archived dat a. Cost s relat e t o acquisit ion cost s only. They do
not include cost s f or dat a processing and f or dat a analysis.
2- 21
Ut ilit y of coar se resolut ion dat a
Coarse resoluti on (250 m – 1km) dat a are avai l abl e from 1998 (SPOT-VGT) or 2000
( MODI S) . Al though the spat i al resol ution i s coarser t han Landsat - t ype sensors, t he
t emporal resol ution i s dail y, provi ding the best possi bili t y for cloud- free observat i ons.
The hi gher t emporal resoluti on increases t he l i keli hood of cloud-f ree i mages and can
augment dat a sources where persi st ent cl oud cover i s probl emat i c. Coarse resol ution
dat a al so has cost advant ages, offers complet e spat i al coverage, and reduces t he
amount of dat a t hat needs t o be processed.
Coarse r esol ution dat a cannot be used di rect l y t o est i mat e ar ea of forest change.
However, t hese dat a ar e useful for identi fying l ocat i ons of rapi d change for furt her
anal ysi s wi t h hi gher resoluti on dat a or as an al ert syst em for cont rolling deforest at ion
( see sect ion on Brazil i an nat i onal case st udy bel ow) . For exampl e, MODI S dat a ar e used
as a st r at i fi cat ion t ool in combi nat ion wi th medi um spat i al resol ution Landsat dat a t o
est i mat e f orest ar ea cl ear ed. The t arget ed sampli ng of change reduces t he over all
resources t ypi call y requi red i n assessi ng change over l arge nat i ons. I n cases wher e
cl eari ngs are l arge and/ or change i s rapi d, vi sual i nt erpret at i on or aut omat ed anal ysi s
can be used t o i denti f y where change i n forest ar ea has occurred. Aut omat ed met hods
such as mi xt ure modeling and regressi on t rees (Box 2.1.1) can al so i denti fy changes i n
t ree cover at t he sub- pi xel l evel . Val i dat ion of anal yses wi t h medi um and hi gh resol ution
dat a i n sel ect ed locat ions can be used t o assess accuracy. The use of coarse resol ution
dat a t o i denti fy deforest at i on hot spot s i s part i cul arl y useful t o desi gn a sampli ng st rat egy
( see fol lowi ng sect i on) .
Box 2. 1.1. Mixture models and regression t rees
Mi xt ure model s est i mat e t he proporti on of different l and cover component s wi t hin a
pi xel . For exampl e, each pi xel i s descri bed as percent age veget at ion, shade, and
bar e soil component s. Component s sum t o 100%. I mage processi ng sof t ware
packages oft en provi de mi xt ure model s using user- speci fi ed values for each end-
member ( spect ral val ues for pi xel s t hat cont ai n 100% of each component ).
Regression t rees are anot her met hod t o est i mat e proporti ons wi t hin each
component based on t rai ning dat a t o cal i brat e t he al gori t hm. Traini ng dat a wi t h
proporti ons of each component can be deri ved from higher resolution dat a. ( see
Box 2.1.5 for more det ai l s)
Ut ilit y of fine resolut ion dat a
Fi ne resol ution (< 5m) dat a, such as t hose coll ect ed from commerci al sensors ( e.g. ,
I KONOS, Qui ckBird) and ai rcraft , can be prohibi ti vel y expensi ve t o cover l arge areas.
However, t hese dat a can be used t o cali brat e algori thms for anal yzi ng medium and high
resoluti on dat a and t o veri fy t he resul t s — t hat i s t hey can be used as a t ool for “ ground-
t rut hing” t he int erpret at i on of sat el lit e i mager y or f or assessi ng t he accuracy.
2.1 .2.4.4 St ep 4 : Decisions for sampling ver sus wall t o wall coverage
Wall -t o- wal l ( an anal ysi s t hat cover s t he ful l spat i al ext ent of t he forest ed areas) and
sampl ing approaches wi t hin t he forest mask are bot h sui t abl e met hods for anal yzing
forest ar ea change.
The mai n cri t eri a for t he sel ect i on of wall- t o- wall or sampling are:
Wall -t o- wal l i s a common approach i f appropri at e for nat ional ci rcumst ances
 I f resources ar e not suffi ci ent t o compl et e wall - t o wal l coverage, sampli ng i s more
effi ci ent , i n part i cul ar for l arge count ri es
 Recommended sampling approaches are syst emat i c sampling and st rat i fi ed
sampl ing ( see box 2.1.2) .
2- 22
 A sampl ing approach i n one reporti ng peri od could be ext ended t o wal l- t o- wall
cover age in t he subsequent peri od.
Box 2. 1.2. Systemat ic and st rati fied sampling
Syst emat i c sampli ng obt ains sampl es on a regul ar int erval , e. g. one ever y 10 km.
Sampl ing effi ci ency can be i mproved t hrough spat i al st rat i fi cat i on ( ‘st rat i fi ed
sampling’) using known proxy vari abl es ( e.g. deforest at i on hot spot s) . Proxy
vari abl es can be deri ved from coarse resoluti on sat elli t e dat a or by combini ng ot her
geo- refer enced or map i nformat i on such as di st ance t o roads or set t l ement s,
previ ous deforest at i on, or fact ors such as fi res.
Exampl e of syst emat i c sampling Exampl e of st rat i fi ed sampl i ng

A st rat i fi ed sampli ng approach for forest area change est i mat i on i s current l y bei ng
i mpl ement ed wi t hin t he NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change program. Thi s
met hod reli es on wall to wall MODI S change i ndicat or maps ( at 500 m resoluti on)
t o st rat i fy biomes i nt o regions of varyi ng change l i keli hood. A st rat i fi ed sampl e of
Landsat - 7 ETM+ i mage pai rs i s anal yzed t o quanti fy bi ome- wi de area of forest
cl eari ng. Change est i mat es can be deri ved at count ry l evel by adapt ing t he sampl e
t o t he count ry t erri t ory.
A few very l arge count ri es, e.g. Brazil and I ndi a, have al ready demonst r at ed t hat
operat i onal wall t o wall syst ems can be est abli shed based on mi d- resol uti on sat elli t e
i magery ( see sect i on 3.2 for further det ai l s) . Brazil has measured deforest at ion rat es i n
Brazili an Amazoni a si nce t he 1980s. These met hods coul d be easil y adapt ed t o cope wi t h
small er count ry si zes. Al t hough a wal l- t o- wall cover age i s i deal , i t may not be pr act i cal
due t o l arge areas and const rai nt s on resources for accurat e anal ysi s.
2.1 .2.4.5 St ep 5 : Process and analyze t he sat ellit e dat a
St ep 5.1: Preprocessing
Sat el lit e i magery usuall y goes t hrough t hree mai n pre-processi ng st eps: geomet ri c
correct i ons are needed t o ensure t hat i mages in a t i me seri es overl ay properl y, cloud
removal i s usuall y t he second st ep i n i mage pr e- processing and radi omet ri c correct i ons
are recommended t o make change i nt erpret at ion easi er ( by ensuring t hat i mages have
t he same spect ral val ues for t he same obj ect s) .
 Geomet ri c correct i ons
- Low geol ocat i on error of change dat aset s i s t o be ensured: aver age
geol ocat i on error (rel at i ve bet ween 2 i mages) should be < 1 pi xel
2- 23
- Exi st ing Landsat Geocover dat a usuall y provi de suffi ci ent geomet ri c accuracy
and can be used as a basel ine; for l i mit ed areas Landsat Geocover has
geol ocat i on probl ems
- Using addi t ional dat a l i ke non- Geocover Landsat , SPOT, et c. requi res eff ort in
manual or aut omat ed georect i fi cat i on usi ng ground cont rol point s or i mage t o
i mage regi st rat i on.
 Cl oud and cl oud shadow det ect i on and removal
- Vi sual i nt erpret at i on i s t he preferred met hod for areas wi t hout compl et e
cl oud-free sat elli t e cover age,
- Clouds and cloud shadows t o be removed f or aut omat ed approaches
 Radi omet ri c correct i ons
- Effort needed for radi omet ri c correct ions depends on the change assessment
approach
- For si mpl e scene by scene anal ysi s ( e.g. vi sual int erpret at i on), the radiomet ri c
effect s of t opography and at mospher e shoul d be consi dered in the
int erpret at i on process but do not need t o be di git all y normali zed)
- Sophi sti cat ed di gi t al and aut omat ed approaches may requi re radi omet ri c
correct i on t o cali brat e spect r al val ues t o t he same r efer ence obj ect s i n
mul ti t emporal dat aset s. Thi s i s usuall y done by i dent i fying a wat er body or
dark obj ect and cal i brati ng t he ot her i mages t o t he fi rst .
- Reduct i on of haze maybe a useful compl ement ary option for digi t al
approaches. The i mage cont aminat i on by haze is rel at i vel y frequent i n t ropi cal
regions. Therefore, when no al t ernat i ve i magery i s avail abl e, t he correct i on of
haze i s recommended before i mage anal ysi s. Part i all y haze cont ami nat ed
i mages can be correct ed t hrough a t assel ed cap t ransformat i on
18
.
- Topographi c normal i zat i on i s recommended for mount ai nous envi ronment s
from a di gi t al t errain model ( DTM) . For medium resol uti on dat a t he SRTM
( shut t l e radar t opography mi ssi on) DTM can be used wi t h aut omat ed
approaches
19

St ep 5.2: Analysis met hods
Many met hods exi st t o int erpret i mages ( Tabl e 2.1.3) . The sel ect i on of t he met hod
depends on avail abl e resources and whet her i mage processi ng soft ware i s avail abl e.
Whi chever met hod i s sel ect ed, t he resul t s should be repeat abl e by di fferent anal yst s.
I t i s gener all y more diffi cult t o i denti fy forest at i on t han def orest at i on. Forest at i on occurs
gradual l y over a number of year s whi l e deforest at i on occurs more rapi dl y. Deforest at ion
i s theref ore more vi si bl e. Hi gher resol uti on, addi ti onal fi eld work, and accuracy
assessment may be requi red if forest at i on as well as deforest at ion need t o be moni tored.
Vi sual scene t o scene i nt erpret at i on of forest ar ea change can be si mpl e and robust ,
al t hough i t i s a ti me- consuming met hod. A combi nati on of aut omat ed met hods
( segment at i on or cl assi fi cat i on) and vi sual interpret at i on can reduce t he work l oad.
Aut omat ed met hods are gener all y prefer abl e where possi bl e because t he i nt erpret at ion
i s repeat abl e and effi ci ent . Even in a f ull y automat ed process, vi sual inspect i on of t he
resul t by an anal yst f amili ar wi th t he region should be carri ed out t o ensure appropri at e
int erpret at i on.


18
Lavreau J ( 1991) De- hazing Landsat Themat ic Mapper images, Phot ogrammet ric Engineeri ng &
Remot e Sensing, 57: 1297–1302.
19
E. g. Gallaun H, Schardt M & Linser S ( 2007) Remot e sensing based f orest map of Aust ria and
derived environment al indicat ors. Forest SAT 2007 Conf erence, Mont pellier, France.
2- 24
A preli mi nary vi sual scr eeni ng of t he i mage pairs can serve t o i denti fy t he sampl e si t es
where change has occurred bet ween t he t wo dat es. Thi s dat a st r at i fi cat i on al lows
removi ng t he i mage pai rs wi thout change from t he processi ng chai n ( for t he det ect i on
and measurement of change) .
Changes ( for each i mage pai r) can t hen be measured by compari ng t he t wo mul t i- dat e
final forest maps. The t i ming of i mage pai rs has t o be adj ust ed t o t he refer ence period,
e.g. i f sel ect ed i mages ar e dat ed 1999 and 2006, i t would have t o be adj ust ed t o 2000-
2005.
Visual delineat ion of land ent it ies
Thi s approach i s vi abl e, part i cul arl y i f image anal ysi s t ool s and experi ences are li mi t ed.
The vi sual del ineat i on of l and enti ti es on print out s ( used i n former ti mes) i s not
recommended. On scr een del ineat i on shoul d be pr eferr ed as produci ng direct l y di gi t al
resul t s. When l and ent i ti es are delineat ed vi suall y, t hey should al so be l abel ed vi suall y.
Table 2.1.3. Mai n anal ysi s met hods for moderat e resoluti on ( ~ 30 m) i magery.
Method for
delineat ion
Method for
class labeling
Practi cal
mini mum
mapping
unit
Principles for use
Advantages /
limitat ions
Dot
int erpret at ion
( dot s sample)
Visual
int erpret at ion
< 0. 1 ha
- mult iple dat e pref erable
t o single dat e
int erpret at ion
- On screen pref erable t o
print out s int erpret at ion
- closest t o classical
f orest ry invent ories
- very accurat e alt hough
int erpret er dependent
- no map of changes
Visual
delineat ion
( f ull image)
Visual
int erpret at ion
5 – 10 ha
- mult iple dat e analysis
pref erable
- On screen digit izing
pref erable t o delineat ion
on print out s
- easy t o implement
- t ime consuming
- int erpret er dependent
Pixel based
classif icat ion
Supervised
labeling ( wit h
t raining and
correct ion
phases)
< 1 ha

- select ion of common
spect ral t raining set f rom
mult iple dat es / images
pref erable
- f ilt ering needed t o avoid
noise
- diff icult t o implement
- t raining phase needed

Unsupervised
clust ering +
Visual labeling
< 1 ha

- int erdependent ( mult iple
dat e) labeling pref erable
- f ilt ering needed t o avoid
noise
- diff icult t o implement
- noisy ef f ect wit hout
f ilt ering

Obj ect based
segment at ion
Supervised
labeling ( wit h
t raining and
correct ion
phases)
1 - 5 ha
- mult iple dat e
segment at ion pref erable
- select ion of common
spect ral t raining set f rom
mult iple dat es / images
pref erable
- more reproducible t han
visual delineat ion
- t raining phase needed

Unsupervised
clust ering +
Visual labeling
1 - 5 ha
- mult iple dat e
segment at ion pref erable
- int erdependent ( mult iple
dat e) labeling of single
dat e images pref erable
- more reproducible t han
visual delineat ion


Mult i- dat e image segment ation
Segment at i on for del ineat i ng i mage obj ect s reduces t he processi ng t i me of i mage
anal ysi s. The delineat ion provi ded by t hi s approach i s not onl y more rapi d and aut omat i c
but al so finer t han what coul d be achi eved usi ng a manual approach. I t i s repeat abl e and
t heref ore more obj ect i ve t han a vi sual delineat i on by an anal yst . Using mul t i- dat e
segment at i ons rat her t han a pai r of indi vidual segment at i ons i s j ust i fi ed by t he fi nal
obj ect i ve whi ch i s t o det ermi ne change.
2- 25
I f a segment at i on approach i s used, t he i mage processi ng can be i deall y decomposed
into four st eps:
I . Mul ti - dat e i mage segment at i on i s appl i ed on image pai rs: groups of adj acent
pi xel s t hat show si mil ar area change t raj ect ori es bet ween t he 2 dat es ar e
delineat ed int o obj ect s.
I I . Traini ng areas are sel ect ed for all l and cl asses i n each of t he 2 dat es ( in t he
case of more t hat one i mage pai r and i f al l i mages ar e r adiomet ri call y
correct ed, t hi s st ep can be pr epar ed i ni ti all y by sel ect i ng a set of repr esent at i ve
spect ral si gnat ures for each cl ass – as aver age f rom di fferent t rai ning areas)
I I I . Obj ect s from ever y ext r act (i .e. every dat e) ar e cl assi fi ed separat el y by
supervi sed cl ust ering procedures, l eadi ng t o two aut omat ed forest maps ( at
dat e 1 and dat e 2)
I V. Vi sual i nt erpret at i on i s conduct ed i nt erdependent l y on t he i mage pai rs t o
veri fy/ adj ust t he l abel of t he cl asses and edi t possi bl e aut omat i c cl assi fi cat ion
errors.

Digital classificat ion t echniques
Digi t al cl assi fi cat ion i nto clust ers appli es in t he case of aut omat i c del i neat i on of
segment s.
Aft er segment at i on, i t i s recommended t o appl y t wo supervi sed obj ect cl assi fi cat i ons
separ at el y on t he t wo mul ti - dat e i mages i nst ead of appl ying a si ngl e supervi sed obj ect
cl assi fi cat ion on t he i mage pai r because t wo separ at e l and cl assi fi cat i ons ar e much easi er
t o produce i n a supervi sed st ep t han a di rect cl assi fi cat i on of change t raj ect ori es.
The supervi sed obj ect cl assi fi cat ion should ideall y use a common predefined st andar d
t rai ni ng dat a set of spect r al si gnat ures for each t ype of ecosyst em t o creat e i ni ti al
aut omat ed forest maps ( at any dat e and any l ocat i on wi thin t hi s ecosyst em) .
Al t hough unsupervi sed clust eri ng (foll owed by vi sual l abel ing) i s al so possi bl e, for l arge
areas ( i .e. for more t han a few sat elli t e i mages) i t i s recommended t o appl y supervi sed
obj ect cl assi fi cat i on ( wi th a t r aining phase beforehand and a l abeling
correct i on/ val i dat ion phase aft erwards) . An unsupervi sed di rect cl assi fi cat ion of change
t raj ect ori es of t he 2 mul ti dat e i mages t oget her impli es a second st ep of vi sual l abeli ng of
t he cl assi fi cat i on resul t int o t he di fferent combinat i on of change cl asses whi ch i s a t i me-
consumi ng t ask. The mul ti dat e segment at i on fol lowed by super vi sed cl assi fi cat i on of
indi vidual dat es i s consi dered more eff i ci ent in t he case of a l arge number of i mages.
Ot her met hodologi cal opti ons ( see Tabl e 2.1.3) can be used depending on t he speci fi c
condi ti ons or expert i se wi t hi n a count ry.

I mage segment at ion i s t he process of part i t ioning an i mage i nt o groups of pi xel s t hat
are spect r all y si mil ar and spat i all y adj acent . Boundari es of pi xel groups del ineat e ground
obj ect s i n much t he same way a human anal yst would do based on i t s shape, t one and
t ext ure. However, del i neat i on i s more accur at e and obj ect i ve si nce i t i s carri ed out at t he
pi xel l evel based on quant i t at i ve val ues
2- 26
General recommendat ions for image obj ect int erpret at ion methods
Gi ven t he het erogenei t y of t he forest spect r al si gnat ures and t he occasi onal l y poor
radiomet ri c condi tions, t he i mage anal ysi s by a skil l ed i nt erpret er i s indi spensabl e t o
map l and use and l and use change wi t h hi gh accuracy.
 I nt erpret at i on shoul d focus on change in l and use wi t h i nt erdependent vi sual
assessment of 2 mul ti- t emporal i mages t oget her. Cont raril y to di gi t al
cl assi fi cat ion t echni ques, vi sual int erpret at i on i s easi er wi t h multi -t emporal
i magery.
 Exi st ing maps may be useful for st rat i fi cat ion or hel pi ng in t he int erpret at i on
 Scene by scene ( i .e. si t e by si t e) int erpret at i on i s more accurat e t han
int erpret at i on of scene or i mage mosai cs
 Spect r al , spat i al and t emporal ( seasonali t y) charact eri st i cs of t he forest s have t o
be consi dered during t he i nt erpret at ion. I n t he case of seasonal forest s, scenes
from t he same t i me of year shoul d be used. Preferabl y, mul tipl e scenes from
di fferent seasons woul d be used t o ensure t hat changes i n forest cover from
int er- annual vari abil i t y in cli mat e ar e not confused wi t h deforest at i on.
2.1 .2.4.6 St ep 6 : Accuracy assessment
An independent accuracy assessment i s an essenti al component t o link ar ea est i mat es t o
a credi t ing syst em. Report ing accuracy and verifi cat i on of resul t s are essent i al
component s of a moni t oring syst em. Accuracy coul d be quant i fi ed following
recommendat i ons of chapt er 5 of I PCC Good Pract i ce Gui dance 2003.
Accuraci es of 80 t o 95% are achi evabl e for moni t ori ng wi th mi d- resoluti on i magery t o
di scri minat e bet ween forest and non- forest . Accuraci es can be assessed t hrough in- si t u
observat ions or anal ysi s of very hi gh resoluti on ai rcraft or sat el li t e dat a. I n bot h cases, a
st at i st i call y vali d sampling procedure shoul d be used t o det ermi ne accuracy.
A det ai l ed descri ption of met hods t o be used for accuracy assessment i s provi ded in
sect ion 2.6 ( “ Esti mat i ng uncert ai nti es in area est i mat es” ) .
2.1 .2.5 Monit oring of increases in forest area - forest ation
I ncreases i n forest area can occur for a vari et y of reasons, i ncludi ng recover y from fi re
or st orms, nat ural forest r egrowt h fol lowi ng crop abandonment , fallow periods in shifting
cul t i vat i on syst ems, and growt h of t ree pl ant at ions. I denti fying increases i n forest area
from remot e sensing i s general l y more di ffi cul t than i dentifying decr eases from
deforest at i on. I ncreases i n forest ar ea occur relat i vel y sl owl y, so t hat i ncreases can onl y
be i denti fi ed aft er sever al years. Even l onger periods are needed t o i denti fy fallow cycl es
from shifti ng cul ti vat ion and harvest i ng cycl es for ti mber pl ant at ions. Care shoul d be
t aken t o use i mages separ at ed by suffi ci entl y long peri ods of t i me t o avoi d erroneous
concl usions about increases i n forest areas. Ti me seri es of i mages should be used t o
di st ingui sh seasonal behavi or (in parti cul ar for deci duous forest s whi ch can appear as
bar e ground during t he dry season) from regrowt h of secondary forest s ( e.g. from
reforest at ion/ afforest at i on or crop abandonment ) . The free avail abi li t y of dat a from
Landsat and ot her sensors make i t feasi bl e t o anal yze mul ti pl e i mages i n a t i me seri es
(i deall y t wo i mages: one i mage duri ng dry season and anot her during t he wet season) .
There ar e no st andard met hods for i dent ifyi ng i ncreases in forest cover f rom remot e
sensi ng. The same met hods for i dentifyi ng l oss of forest cover can be appl i ed t o i denti fy
increases, wi t h the precaut ion t hat l onger ti me seri es are requi red. These met hods
incl ude vi sual int erpret at ion, supervi sed and unsupervi sed pi xel - based cl assi fi cat i on, and
obj ect - based segment at ion ( see Tabl e 2.1.3) .
The Brazi li an moni t oring syst em present l y car ri ed out by I NPE does not i dentify yet
increases i n forest ar ea ( see sect ion 3.2.2) . The bi enni al wall -t o- wal l mappi ng of f orest
cover by t he I ndi an government i dent ifi es cl asses based on densi t y of t ree cover ( ver y
2- 27
dense, moder at el y dense, and open forest ) and t her eby can i dent ify areas where t he
forest densi t y has changed bet ween t i me peri ods. Repeat ed measurement s of
permanent plot s for forest i nvent ori es, i f avail abl e al so for ini ti all y non forest ed plot s,
can provi de informat ion about increases i n forest ar ea at t he sampl e pl ot locat i ons.
Pl ant at i ons are an i ncreasi ngl y i mport ant l and use i n the t ropi cs. Mul ti spect r al opti cal
remot e sensi ng dat a oft en confuse forest s and pl ant at i ons, part i cul arl y wi t h coarse-
resoluti on dat a ( i .e. > 100 m r esol ut ion) . Devel oping t echnologi es, i ncluding
hyperspect r al and LI DAR, are promi si ng t o di stingui sh pl ant at i ons from forest s based on
char act eri st i c spect ral responses of pl ant at ions speci es ( hyper spect ral ) and veget at ion
st ruct ure ( LI DAR) . Text ur al measures, i n part i cul ar on hi gh resol ution i magery ( < 10m)
may di st i ngui sh aut omat i cal l y pl ant at i ons due t o t he regul ar spaci ng of pl ant ed t rees.
Wi th dat a from a l ong ti me- seri es, pl ant at i ons can be i denti fi ed t hrough cycl es of
cl eari ng and/ or harvest i ng, and pl anting.
2.2 MONI TORI NG OF CHANGE I N FOREST LAND
REMAI NI NG FOREST LAND
Many act i vi ti es cause degradat i on of carbon st ocks wi t hi n forest s but not all of t hem can
be moni t ored well wi th hi gh cert ai nt y usi ng remot e sensi ng dat a. As di scussed above in
Sect i on 1.2.2, t he gaps i n the canopy caused by sel ect i ve harvest i ng of t rees ( bot h l egal
and il l egal ) can be det ect ed i n i magery such as Landsat using sophi sti cat ed anal yt i cal
t echni ques of frequentl y coll ect ed i magery, and t he t ask i s somewhat easi er when t he
logging act i vi t y i s more int ense (i .e. hi gher number of t rees l ogged) . Hi gher int ensi t y
logging i s li kel y t o cause more change i n canopy charact eri st i cs, and t hus an i ncreased
chance t hat t hi s could be moni tored wi t h Landsat t ype i magery and i nt er pret at i on. The
area of forest s undergoi ng sel ect i ve l ogging can al so be i nt erpret ed i n remot e sensi ng
i magery based on t he obser vat i ons of net works of roads and log decks t hat are oft en
cl earl y recogni zabl e i n t he i magery.
Degr adat i on of carbon st ocks by forest fi res i s usuall y easi er t o i dentify and moni tor wi th
exi st i ng sat el li t e i magery t han l ogging. Degradat i on f rom fi res i s al so i mport ant for
carbon fluxes. The t r aj ect ory of spect r al responses on sat ell i t e i magery over t i me i s
useful for t racki ng burned area.
Degr adat i on by over expl oi t at i on for fuel wood or ot her local uses of wood of t en foll owed
by ani mal grazing t hat prevent s regener at i on, a si t uat i on more common in dri er f orest
areas, i s l i kel y not t o be det ect abl e from sat ell ite i mage int erpret at i on unl ess t he rat e of
degr adat i on was int ense causi ng l arger changes i n t he canopy and t hus moni t oring
met hods are not present ed her e.
I n t hi s sect ion, t wo approaches are pr esent ed t hat coul d be used t o moni tor l ogging: t he
di rect approach t hat det ect s gaps and t he i ndirect approach t hat det ect s road net works
and l og decks.
Key Definit ions
I nt act forest - pat ches of forest t hat ar e not damaged or surrounded by small
cl eari ngs; forest s wi t hout gaps caused by human act i vi ti es.
Forest canopy gaps - I n logged areas, canopy gaps are cr eat ed by t ree fall and ski d
t rail s, resul ting i n damage or deat h of st andi ng t rees.
Log landings - a more severe t ype of damage caused when t he forest i s cl eared for t he
purposes of t emporary t i mber st orage and handl ing; bare soil i s oft en exposed.
Logging roads - roads buil t t o t ransport ti mber from log l andings t o sawmi ll s – t hei r
widt h vari es by count ry from about 3 m t o as much as 15 m.
Regenerat ion - forest s r ecoveri ng from previ ous di st urbance, resul ting in carbon
sequest r at i on.
2- 28
2.2 .1.1 Direct approach t o monit or select ive logging
Mappi ng forest degradat i on wi t h remot e sensi ng dat a i s more chall enging t han mappi ng
deforest at i on because t he degr aded forest i s a compl ex mi x of dif ferent l and cover t ypes
( veget at i on, dead t r ees, soi l , shade) and t he spect ral si gnat ure of t he degradat i on
changes qui ckl y (i .e., < 2 years) . Hi gh spat i al resol ution sensors such as Landsat , ASTER
and SPOT have been most l y used so f ar t o addr ess t hi s i ssue. However, ver y hi gh
resoluti on sat elli t e i mager y, such as I konos or Qui ckbi rd, and aeri al digi t al i mages
acqui red wi t h vi deography have been used as well . Here, t he met hods avail abl e t o det ect
and map forest degradat i on caused by sel ect i ve l ogging and forest fires – t he most
predomi nant t ypes of degr adat i on i n t ropi cal regions – usi ng opti cal sensors onl y ar e
present ed.
Met hods for mappi ng forest degradat i on range f rom si mpl e i mage i nt erpret at i on to
hi ghl y sophi sti cat ed aut omat ed al gori thms. Because t he focus i s on est i mat ing forest
carbon l osses associ at ed wi t h degradat i on, forest canopy gaps and smal l cl eari ngs ar e
t he feat ure of i nt erest t o be enhanced and ext ract ed from t he sat ell i t e i mager y. I n t he
case of l ogging, t he damage i s associ at ed wi th areas of t ree fal l gaps, cl eari ngs
associ at ed wi t h roads and l og l andings (i .e., ar eas cl eared t o st ore harvest ed t i mber
t emporari l y), and ski d t rail s. The forest canopy gaps and cl eari ngs are int ermi xed wi th
pat ches of undamaged forest s ( Fi gure 2.2.1).
Figure 2 .2.1. Very hi gh resol ution I konos i mage showi ng common f eat ures i n
sel ect i vel y logged forest s i n t he East ern Brazi li an Amazon.

(i mage si ze: 11 km x 11 km)

There are t wo possi bl e met hodol ogi cal approaches t o map logged ar eas: 1) i dentifyi ng
and mappi ng forest canopy damage ( gaps and cl eari ngs) ; or 2) mappi ng t he combi ned,
i .e., int egrat ed, area of f orest canopy damage, int act f orest and r egenerat ion pat ches.
Est i mat i ng t he proportion of forest carbon l oss i n t he l at t er mappi ng approach i s more
chall enging requi ri ng fi el d sampl ing measurement s of forest canopy damage and
ext r apol at i on t o t he whol e int egrat ed area t o est i mat e t he damage proportion (see
sect ion 2.5) .
Mappi ng forest degr adat i on associ at ed wi t h fires i s si mpl er t han t hat associ at ed wi t h
logging because t he degraded envi ronment i s usuall y conti guous and more
2- 29
homogeneous t han l ogged areas. Moreover, t he associ at ed carbon emi ssi ons may be
hi gher t han for sel ect i ve l ogging.
The foll owing chart i llust rat es t he st eps needed t o map forest degradat ion:



I n t his chart “ Very high (> 5m)” should read as “ Fine ( < 5m)” and “ High ( 10- 60m)” as “ Medium
( 10- 60m)” ( ref er t o Tabl e 2.1.1)
2.2 .1.1.1 Step 1: Define t he spat ial resolut ion
Defini ng t he appropri at e spat i al resolution to map forest degr adat i on due t o sel ect i ve
logging depends on t he t ype of harvest i ng operat i on ( managed or unpl anned) . Cert ai n
non- mechani zed logging pract i ced in a few areas of e.g., t he Brazil i an Amazon, cannot
be det ect ed usi ng spat i al resol ution i n t he order of 30-60 m (Fi gure 2.2.2) because t hese
t ype of loggi ng creat e small forest gaps and lit t l e damage t o t he canopy. I n addi tion,
logging of floodpl ain ( “ var zea” ) forest s i s ver y diffi cul t t o map because wat erways ar e
used i n pl ace of ski d t rai l s and l ogging roads. Very hi gh resol ut ion i magery, as acqui red
wi th orbi t al and aeri al di gi t al vi deography, i s requi red t o di rect l y map forest canopy
damage of t hese t ypes. Unpl anned l oggi ng generall y creat es more i mpact al lowi ng t he
det ect i on of forest canopy damage at spat i al resoluti on bet ween 30- 60 m.
Figure 2.2 .2. Unpl anned logged forest i n Sinop, Mat o Grosso, Brazil i an Amazon i n: ( A)
I konos panchromat i c i mage ( 1 met er pi xel ) ; (B) I konos mul t i - spect r al and panchromat i c
fusi on (4 met er pi xel ); ( C) Landsat TM5 mul ti - spect ral ( R5, G4, B3; 30 met er pi xel ) ; and
( D) Normal i zed Di fference Fract i on I ndex ( NDFI ) i mage ( sub- pi xel wi thin 30 m) . These
i mages wer e acqui red in August 2001.
B C D A


2- 30
2.2 .1.1.2 St ep 2 : Enhance t he image
Det ect i ng forest degr adat i on wi t h sat elli t e i mages usual l y requires i mproving t he spect ral
cont rast of t he degr adat i on si gnat ure rel at i ve t o t he background. I n t ropi cal forest
regions, at mospheri c correct i on and haze removal are recommended t echni ques t o be
appl i ed t o hi gh resol ution i mages. Hi st ogram st ret ching i mproves i mage color cont rast
and i s a r ecommended t echni que. However, at hi gh spat i al resolution hi st ogram
st r et chi ng i s not enough t o enhance t he i mage t o det ect forest degr adat i on due t o
logging. Fi gure 2. 2.2C shows an exampl e of a col or composi t e of refl ect ance bands
( R5,G4,B3) of Landsat i mage aft er a l inear st ret ching wi th lit tl e or no evi dence of
logging. At fine/ moderat e spat i al resol uti on, such as t he resolution of Landsat and Spot 4
i mages, a spect r al mi xed si gnal of green veget at i on (GV; al so oft en call ed PV or
photosynt het i c veget at i on) , soil, non- phot osynt het i c veget at i on ( NPV) and shade i s
expect ed wi t hin t he pi xel s. That i s why t he most robust t echni ques t o map sel ect i ve
logging i mpact s are based on fract ion i mages deri ved from spect r al mi xt ure anal ysi s
( SMA) . Fract ions are sub- pi xel est i mat es of t he pure mat eri al s ( endmembers) expect ed
wi thin pi xel si zes such as t hose of Landsat (i .e., 30 m): GV, soil, NPV and shade
endmembers ( see SMA Box 1) . Fi gure 2.2.2D shows t he same ar ea and i mage as Fi gure
2. 1.2C wi th logging si gnat ure enhanced wi t h t he Normali zed Di fference Fr act i on I ndex
( NDFI ; see Box 3.5) . The SMA and NDFI have been successful l y appli ed t o Landsat and
SPOT i mages i n t he Brazi li an Amazon t o enhance t he det ect i on of l ogging and burned
forest s ( Fi gure 2.2.3) .
Because t he degr adat i on si gnat ures of l ogging and forest f i res change qui ckl y in high
resoluti on i magery (i .e. < one year) , annual mappi ng i s requi red. Fi gure 2.2.3 i llust rat es
t hi s probl em showing loggi ng and forest fi res scar s changi ng ever y year over t he period
of 1998 t o 2003. Thi s has i mport ant i mplicat i ons for est i mat i ng emi ssi ons from
degr adat i on because ol d degraded forest s (i .e., wi t h l ess carbon st ocks) can be
mi scl assi fi ed as i nt act forest s. Theref ore, annual det ect ion and mapping t he areas wi t h
canopy damage associ at ed wi t h l ogging and f orest fi res i s mandat ory t o moni t oring
forest degr adat i on wi th hi gh resolution mul ti spect r al i magery such as SPOT and Landsat .
2- 31

Figure 2 .2.3. Forest degr adat i on annual change due t o sel ect i ve l ogging and l ogging
and burning in Sinop regi on, Mat o Grosso St at e, Brazil .


Logged and Burned
a
Logged
Logged
Old
Logged
Old Logged and
Burned
Old Logged and
Burned
Logged and Burned
c d
e
f
b 1998
2- 32
St ep 3: Select t he mapping feat ure and met hods
Forest canopy damage ( gaps and cl eari ngs) areas ar e easi er t o i dentify i n very hi gh
spat i al resol ution i mages ( Fi gure 2.2.3.A-B) . I mage vi sual i nt erpret at i on or aut omat ed
i mage segment at ion can be used t o map forest canopy damage ar eas at t hi s resolution.
However, t her e i s a t radeoff bet ween t hese t wo met hodologi cal approaches when appli ed
t o t he very hi gh spat i al resol ution i mages. Vi sual i dentifi cat i on and deli neat i on of canopy
damage and small cl eari ngs ar e more accurat e but t i me consumi ng, whereas aut omat ed
segment at i on i s fast er but gener at es f al se posi ti ve errors t hat usual l y requi re vi sual
audi ting and manual correct i on of t hese errors. Hi gh spat i al resoluti on i magery i s t he
most common t ype of i mages used t o map l ogging (unpl anned) over l arge ar eas. Vi sual
int erpret at i on at t hi s resol ution does not allow t he int erpret er t o i denti fy indi vi dual gaps
and because of t hi s l imi t at ion t he int egrat ed area – i ncl uding forest canopy damage, and
pat ches of int act forest and regener at i on – i s t he chosen mappi ng feat ure wi t h t hi s
approach. Most of t he aut omat ed t echni ques – appli ed at hi gh spat i al resoluti on – map
t he int egrat ed ar ea as well wi th onl y t he ones based on i mage segment at i on and change
det ect i on abl e t o map di rect l y forest canopy damage. I n t he case of burned forest s, bot h
vi sual i nt erpret at i on and aut omat ed al gori t hms can be used wi t h very hi gh and hi gh
spat i al resoluti on i magery.
Dat a needs
There are sever al opti cal sensors t hat can be used t o map forest degradat ion caused by
sel ect i ve l ogging and forest fi res ( Tabl e 2.2.1) . Users mi ght consider t he foll owing
fact ors when defi ning dat a needs:
 Degr adat i on int ensi t y—i s t he loggi ng int ensi t y low or high?
 Ext ent of t he area f or anal ysi s—l arge or small areal ext ent ?
 Techni que t hat wi ll be used—vi sual or aut omat ed?
Very hi gh spat i al resoluti on sensors will be requi red for mapping l ow int ensi t y
degr adat i on. Small areas can be mapped at t hi s resol ution as well i f cost i s not a li mi ting
fact or. I f degradat i on i nt ensi t y i s l ow and area i s l arge, indirect met hods are pr eferr ed
because cost for acqui si ti on of very hi gh resolution i mager y may be prohi bi ti ve ( see
sect ion on I ndirect Met hods t o Map Forest Degr adat i on) . For very l arge ar eas, hi gh
spat i al resol ution sensors produce sat i sfact ory est i mat es of t he area affect ed by
degr adat i on.
The spect r al resoluti on and quali t y of t he radiomet ri c si gnal must be t aken int o account
for moni t oring forest degr adat i on at hi gh spat i al resol uti on. The est i mat ion of t he
abundance of t he mat eri al s (i .e., end- members) found wi th the forest ed pi xel s, t hrough
SMA, requires at l east four spect r al bands pl aced i n spect r al regi ons t hat cont rast t he
end- members spect r al si gnat ures ( see Box 2.2.1) .

2- 33
Table 2. 2.1. Remot e sensing met hods t est ed and vali dat ed t o map forest degr adat ion
caused by sel ect i ve l oggi ng and burni ng in t he Brazil i an Amazon.



20
CLAS: Carnegie Landsat Analysis Syst em
21
ht t p: / / claslit e. ciw. edu
22
NDFI : Normalized Diff erence Fract ion I ndex; CCA: Cont ext ual Classif icat ion Algorit hm
Mapping
Approach
Sensor
Spat ial
Extent
Obj ect ive Advantages Disadvantages
Visual
I nt erpret at ion
Landsat
TM5
Local and
Brazilian
Amazon
Map int egrat ed
logging area and
canopy damage
of burned f orest
Does not require
sophist icat ed
image processing
t echniques
Labor int ensive f or large
areas and may be user
biased t o def ine t he
boundaries of t he
degraded f orest .
Det ect ion of
Logging
Landings +
Harvest ing
Buff er
Landsat
TM5 and
ETM+
Local
Map int egrat ed
logging area
Relat ively simple
t o implement and
sat isfact or ily
est imat e t he area
Harvest ing buf f ers varies
across t he landscape and
does not reproduce t he
act ual shape of t he logged
area
Decision Tree SPOT 4 Local
Map f orest
canopy damage
associat ed wit h
logging and
burning
Simple and
int uit ive binary
classif icat ion
rules, def ined
aut omat ically
based on
st at ist ical
met hods
I t has not been t est ed in
very large areas and
classif icat ion rules may
vary across t he landscape
Change
Det ect ion
Landsat
TM5 and
ETM+
Local
Map f orest
canopy damage
associat ed wit h
logging and
burning
Enhances f orest
canopy damaged
areas.
Requires t wo pairs of
radiomet rically calibrat ed
images and does not
separat e nat ural and
ant hropogenic f orest
changes
I mage
Segment at ion
Landsat
TM5
Local
Map int egrat ed
logged area
Relat ively simple
t o implement
Not been t est ed in very
large areas. segment at ion
rules may vary across t he
landscape
Text ural
Filt ers
Landsat
TM5 and
ETM+
Brazilian
Amazon
Map f orest
canopy damage
associat ed
Relat ively simple
t o implement

CLAS
20

Landsat
TM5 and
ETM+
Three st at es
of t he
Brazilian
Amazon
( PA, MT and
AC)
Map t ot al logging
area ( canopy
damage,
clearings and
undamaged
f orest )
Fully aut omat ed
and st andardized
t o very large
areas.
Requires ver y high
comput at ion power, and
pairs of images t o det ect
f orest change associat ed
wit h logging. Requires
addit ional image t ypes f or
at mospheric correct ion
( MODI S)
CLASlit e
21

Landsat
TM, ETM+
ASTER,
ALI , SPOT
MODI S,
Regional,
anywher e
t hat
imagery
exist s
Rapid mapping of
def orest at ion and
degradat ion at
sub- nat ional
scales
Fully aut omat ed,
uses a st andard
comput er,
requires no
expert ise
Creat es basic f orest cover
maps but does not do
f inal classif icat ion of land
uses
NDFI + CCA
22

Landsat
TM5 and
ETM+
Local
Map f orest
canopy damage
associat ed wit h
logging and
burning
enhances f orest
canopy damaged
areas.
I t has not been t est ed in
very large areas and does
not separat e logging f rom
burning
2- 34
Box 2. 2.1. Spect ral Mixt ure Analysis ( SMA)
Det ect i on and mappi ng forest degradat ion wit h remot el y sensed dat a i s more
chall enging t han mapping forest conversi on because t he degr aded forest i s a
compl ex envi ronment wi t h a mi xt ure of different l and cover t ypes ( i .e., veget at i on,
dead t rees, bark, soil , shade) , causi ng a mi xed pi xel probl em ( see Fi gure 2.1.3) . I n
degr aded forest envi ronment s, t he r efl ect ance of each pi xel can be decomposed
i nto fract i ons of green veget at i on (GV) , non- phot osynt het i c veget at i on ( NPV; e.g.,
dead t r ee and bark) , soil and shade t hrough Spect r al Mi xt ure Anal ysi s ( SMA) . The
SMA model s produce as out put fract ion i mages of each pure mat eri al found wi t hin
t he degr aded forest pi xel , known as endmembers. Fr act i ons are more int ui ti ve t o
i nt erpret t han t he refl ect ance of mi xed pi xel s ( most common si gnat ure at hi gh
spat i al resol uti on) . For exampl e, soil fract i on enhances l og l andi ngs and logging
roads; NPV fract i on enhances forest damage and t he GV fract i on i s sensi ti ve t o
canopy gaps.
The SMA model assumes t hat t he i mage spect ra ar e formed by a linear
combinat ion of n pure spect r a [ or endmembers] , such t hat :
( 1)
¯
=
+ · =
n
i
b b i i b
R F R
1
,


f or
( 2)
1
1
=
¯
=
n
i
F

where R
b
i s t he ref l ect ance in band b, R
i, b
i s t he ref l ect ance for endmember i , in
band b, F
i
t he fract i on of endmember i , and ε
b
i s t he resi dual error for each band.
The SMA model error i s est i mat ed for each i mage pi xel by computi ng t he RMS
error, gi ven by:
( 3)
2 / 1
1
1

=
¯
=
÷
n
b
b
n RMS 
The i dent i fi cat ion of t he nat ure and number of pure spect r a ( i .e., endmember s) , in
t he i mage scene i s t he most i mport ant st ep for a successful appl i cat i on of SMA
model s. I n Landsat TM/ ETM+ i mages t he f our t ypes of endmembers ar e expect ed
i n degraded forest envi ronment s ( GV, NPV, Soi l and Shade) can be easi l y i denti fi ed
i n t he ext reme of i mage bands scat t erplot s.
The pi xel s locat ed at t he ext remes of t he dat a cloud of t he Landsat spect r al space
ar e candi dat e endmembers t o run SMA. The final endmember s are sel ect ed based
on the spect r al shape and i mage cont ext ( e.g., soil spect r a ar e most l y associ at ed
wi th unpaved roads and NPV wi th past ure having senesced veget at i on) ( figure
bel ow) .
The SMA model resul t s were eval uat ed as follows: (1) fract i on i mages ar e
eval uat ed and int erpret ed i n t erms of fi el d cont ext and spat i al di st ri bution; (2) the
hi st ograms of t he fract ion i mages ar e inspect ed t o eval uat e i f the model s produced
physi call y meaningful resul t s (i .e., f ract ions rangi ng from zero t o 100%) . I n t i me-
seri es appli cat i ons, as requi red t o moni tor forest degr adat i on, fract ion val ues must
be consi st ent over t i me for invari ant t arget s ( i .e., t hat i nt act forest not subj ect t o
phenologi cal changes must have si mil ar val ues over t i me). Sever al i mage
processi ng soft ware have spect r al pl ot ting and SMA functi onali t i es.
2- 35
Box 2. 2.1. Cont inuat ion

I mage scat t er- pl ot s of Landsat bands in refl ect ance space and t he spect r al curves
of GV, Shade, NPV and Soi l.
Limit at ions for forest degradat ion
There ar e li mi ting fact ors t o all met hods descri bed above t hat mi ght be t aken int o
consi derat i on when mappi ng forest degradat i on. Fi rst , i t requi res frequent mappi ng, at
l east annuall y, because t he spat i al si gnat ures of t he degraded forest s change aft er one
year. Addi ti onal l y, i t i s i mport ant t o keep t r ack of repeat ed degr adat i on event s t hat
affect more dr ast i call y t he forest st ruct ure and composi tion resul ting in great er changes
in carbon st ocks. Second, t he human- caused forest degr adat i on si gnal can be confused
wi th nat ural forest changes such as wi nd t hrows and seasonal changes. Confusi on due t o
seasonali t y can be reduced by usi ng more frequent sat el lit e observat i ons. Third, all t he
met hods descri bed above ar e based on opti cal sensors whi ch are li mi t ed by fr equent
cloud condi t ions i n t ropi cal regions. Fi nall y, higher l evel of expert i se i s requi red t o use
t he most robust aut omat ed t echni ques requi ri ng speci ali zed soft war e and i nvest ment s i n
capaci t y buil ding.
Box 2. 2.2. Calculat ing Normalized Difference Fract ion I ndex ( NDFI )
The det ect ion of l ogging i mpact s at moder at e spat i al resolution i s best
accompli shed at t he subpi xel scal e, wi t h spect r al mi xt ure anal ysi s (SMA) . Fract i on
i mages obt ai ned wi th SMA can enhance t he det ect i on of logging infrast ruct ure and
canopy damage. For exampl e, soil fract i on can enhance t he det ect ion of loggi ng
decks and logging roads; NPV fract i on enhances damaged and dead veget at i on and
green veget at i on t he canopy openi ngs. A new spect r al index obt ained from
f ract ions deri ved from SMA, t he Normali zed Difference Fr act i on I ndex ( NDFI ),
enhances even more t he degr adat i on si gnal caused by sel ect i ve l ogging. The NDFI
i s comput ed by:
( 1)
( )
Soil NPV GV
Soil NPV GV
NDFI
Shade
Shade
+ +
+ ÷
=
2- 36
where GVshade i s t he shade- normali zed GV fract ion gi ven by:
( 2)
Shade
GV
GV
Shade
÷
=
100

The NDFI values range from - 1 t o 1. For int act forest NDFI val ues are expect ed t o
be hi gh (i .e., about 1) due t o t he combi nat i on of high GVshade ( i .e., hi gh GV and
canopy Shade) and l ow NPV and Soi l val ues. As f orest becomes degraded, t he NPV
and Soil f ract i ons are expect ed t o i ncrease, l oweri ng t he NDFI val ues rel at i ve t o
i nt act forest .
Special soft ware requi rements and cost s
Al l t he t echni ques descri bed i n t hi s sect ion ar e avail abl e i n most remot e sensi ng,
commerci al and publi c domai n sof t ware. The soft war e must have t he capabil i t y t o
gener at e GI S vect or l ayers i n case i mage i nt erpret at i on i s chosen, and bei ng abl e t o
perform SMA for i mage enhancement . I mage segment at i on i s t he most sophi st i cat ed
routi ne requi red, being avail abl e in a few commer ci al and publi c domai n soft war e
packages. Addi ti onall y, i t i s desi red t hat t he soft ware al lows addi ng new functi ons t o be
added t o i mpl ement new speci ali zed routines, and have scri pt capabili t y t o bat ch mode
processi ng of l arge vol ume of i mage dat a.
Progress in development s of nat ional monit oring syst ems
Al l t he t echni ques di scussed i n t hi s sect i on ( Di rect approach t o moni tor sel ect i ve l ogging)
were devel oped and vali dat ed in t he Brazi li an Amazon. Recent effort s t o export t hese
met hodologi es t o other areas are underway. For exampl e, SMA and NDFI have bei ng
t est ed i n Boli vi a wi t h Landsat and Ast er i magery. The preli mi nary resul t s showed t hat
forest canopy damage of l ow int ensi t y logging, t he most common t ype of loggi ng in t he
region, could not be det ect ed wi t h Landsat . Thi s corroborat es wi t h t he findi ngs in t he
Brazili an Amazon. New sensor dat a wi t h higher spat i al resolut ion are current l y being
t est ed i n Boli vi a, incl uding Spot 5 (10 m) and Ast er ( 15 m) t o eval uat e t he best sensor
for t hei r operat ional syst em. Gi ven t hei r hi gher spat i al resoluti on, Ast er and Spot
i magery are showing promi se for det ect ing and mapping low int ensi t y logging in Bolivi a.
2.2 .1.2 I ndirect approach t o monit or forest degradat ion
Oft en a di rect remot e sensi ng approach t o assess forest degr adat i on can not be adopt ed
for various l imi ting fact ors ( see previous sect ion) whi ch are even more rest ri ct i ve i f
forest degradat i on has t o be measured for a hi st ori cal period and t hus observed onl y
wi th remot e sensi ng dat a t hat ar e al ready avail abl e i n t he archi ves.
Moreover t he forest defini tion cont ai ned in t he UNFCCC framework of provi si ons
( UNFCCC, 2001) does not di scri mi nat e bet ween f orest s wi t h diff erent carbon st ocks, and
of t en forest l and subcat egori es def i ned by count ri es ar e based on concept s r el at ed t o
di fferent forest t ypes ( e. g. speci es composi t i ons) or ecosyst ems t han can be del ineat ed
t hrough remot e sensi ng dat a or t hrough geo-spat i al cri t eri a (e.g. al t i t ude) .
Consequent l y, any accounting syst em based on forest defi ni ti ons t hat are not cont ai ning
par amet er s rel at ed t o carbon cont ent , will requi re an ext ensi ve and hi gh int ensi ve
carbon st ock measuri ng ef fort ( e.g. nat ional forest i nvent ory) in order t o report on
emi ssi ons from forest degradat ion.
I n t hi s cont ext , i . e. t he need for act i vi t y dat a ( ar ea changes) on degraded forest under
t he UNFCCC report ing requi rement and t he l ack of remot e sensi ng dat a for an
exhaust i ve moni t oring syst em, a new met hodology has been el aborat ed wi t h t he ai m of
provi ding an operat i onal t ool t hat could be appl i ed worl dwide. Thi s met hodology l argel y
adapt s t he concept s and cri t eri a al ready developed t o assess t he worl d’s i nt act forest
l andscape i n t he framework of t he I PCC Gui dance and Gui deli nes for reporti ng GHG
emi ssi ons and r emoval s from forest l and. I n t hi s new cont ext , t he i nt act forest concept
2- 37
has been used as a proxy t o i dentify forest l and wi t hout ant hropogeni c di st urbance so as
t o assess t he carbon cont ent present in the f orest l and:
 int act forest s: full y- st ocked ( any forest wi t h t ree cover bet ween 10% and 100%
but must be undi st urbed, i . e. t here has been no ti mber ext ract i on)
 non-int act forest s: not full y- st ocked ( t r ee cover must st ill be hi gher t han 10% t o
qual ify as a forest under t he exi st i ng UNFCCC rul es, but i n our defi nition we
assume t hat in t he forest has undergone some l evel of ti mber expl oi t at ion or
canopy degradat ion) .
Thi s di stinct ion shoul d be appli ed i n any forest l and use subcat egori es (f orest
st r at i fi cat i on) t hat a count ry i s ai mi ng t o report under UNFCCC. So f or exampl e, i f a
count ry i s report ing emi ssi ons from i t s forest l and usi ng t wo forest l and subcat egori es,
e.g. l owl and forest and mount ain forest , i t shoul d furt her st rat i fy i t s t erri tory usi ng t he
int act approach and in t hi s way i t will report on four forest l and sub-cat egori es: i nt act
lowl and forest ; non-int act l owl and forest , int act mount ain forest and non-i nt act
mount ai n forest . Thus a count ry will al so have t o col l ect t he corresponding carbon pool s
dat a i n order to charact eri ze each forest l and subcat egori es.
The int act forest ar eas ar e defi ned according t o par amet er s based on spat i al cri t eri a t hat
coul d be appl i ed obj ect i vel y and syst emat i call y over al l t he count ry t erri t ory. Each
count ry accordi ng t o i t s speci fi c nat i onal ci rcumst ance ( e.g. forest pract i ces) may
devel op i t s i nt act forest defi ni ti on. Here we suggest an i nt act forest ar ea defi ni ti on based
on t he following si x cri t eri a:
 Si t uat ed wi t hi n t he forest l and accordi ng to current UNFCCC defi ni ti ons and wi t h a
1 km buffer zone i nsi de t he forest area;
 Larger t han 1,000 hect ares and wi t h a small est wi dt h of 1 kilomet ers;
 Cont aini ng a conti guous mosai c of nat ural ecosyst ems;
 Not fragment ed by i nfrast ruct ure (road, navi gabl e ri ver, pi peli ne, et c.) ;
 Wi thout si gns of si gnifi cant human t ransformat ion;
 Wi thout burnt l ands and young t ree si t es adj acent t o i nfrast ruct ure obj ect s.
These cri t eri a wi t h l arger t hreshol ds for minimum area ext ension and buff er di st ance
have been used t o map i nt act forest ar eas globall y ( www.int act forest s.org) .
These cri t eri a can be adapt ed at t he count ry or ecosyst em l evel . For exampl e t he
mini mum ext ension of an int act f orest ar ea or t he mini mum wi dt h can be reduced for
mangrove ecosyst ems. I t must be not ed t hat by usi ng t hese cri t eri a a non-int act f orest
area woul d remain non-i nt act for long ti me even aft er t he end of human act i vi ti es, unt il
t he si gns of human t ransformat i on woul d di sappear.
The adopt i on of t he ‘int act ’ concept i s al so dri ven by t echni cal and pract i cal reasons. I n
compl i ance wi t h current UNFCCC pr act i ce i t is t he Part i es’ r esponsi bili t i es t o i denti fy
forest s accordi ng to t he est abli shed 10% - 100% cover r ange rul e. When assessi ng t he
condi ti on of such forest ar eas usi ng sat elli te remot e sensing met hodol ogi es, t he
“ negat i ve approach” can be used t o di scri minat e bet ween i nt act and non-int act forest s:
di st urbance such as t he devel opment of roads can be easil y det ect ed, whil st t he absence
of such vi sual evi dence of di st urbance can be t aken as evi dence t hat what i s l eft i s
int act . Di st urbance i s easi er t o unequi vocall y i dent i fy from sat ell i t e i mager y t han t he
forest ecosyst em charact eri st i cs whi ch woul d need t o be det ermi ned i f we fol lowed t he
“ posi ti ve approach” i .e. i dentifyi ng int act f orest and t hen det er mini ng t hat t he rest i s
non-int act . Fol lowi ng t hi s approach forest conversi ons bet ween int act forest s, non-i nt act
forest s and ot her l and uses can be easil y measured worl dwi de t hrough Eart h obser vat i on
sat elli t e i mager y; in cont rast , any ot her forest defi ni ti on ( e.g. pri st i ne, vi rgi n,
pri mary/ secondary, et c.. .) i s not al ways measurabl e.
Met hod for delineat ion of intact forest landscapes
2- 38
A t wo- st ep procedure coul d be used t o excl ude non-int act ar eas and del ineat e t he
remai ning int act forest :
1. Excl usion of areas around human set t l ement s and infrast ruct ure and resi dual
f ragment s of l andscape small er t han 5,000 ha, based on t opographi c maps, GI S
dat abase, t hemat i c maps, et c. Thi s fi rst st ep coul d be done t hrough a spat i al
anal ysi s t ool in a GI S soft war e ( t hi s st ep coul d be full y aut omat i c i n case of good
di gi t al dat abase on road net works) . The resul t i s a candi dat e set of l andscape
f ragment s wi t h pot ent i al int act forest l ands.
2. Furt her exclusi on of non-i nt act ar eas and del ineat i on of i nt act f orest l ands i s
done by fine shaping of boundari es, based on visual int erpret at i on met hods of
hi gh- resoluti on sat el lit e i mages ( Landsat cl ass dat a wi t h 15-30 m pi xel spat i al
resoluti on) . Al t ernat i vel y hi gh- resoluti on sat el li te dat a coul d be used t o devel op a
more det ail ed dat aset on human infrast ruct ures, t hat t han coul d be used t o
del ineat e i nt act forest boundari es wi t h a spat i al anal ysi s t ool of a GI S soft ware.

The di st inct i on bet ween i nt act and non-int act al lows us t o account for carbon losses from
forest degradat i on, reporting t hi s as a conver sion of i nt act t o non-int act forest . The
degr adat i on process i s t hus account ed for as one of t he t hree pot ent i al changes
illust rat ed i n Fi gure 2.2. 4, i .e. from ( i ) int act f orest s t o ot her l and use, ( ii ) non-i nt act
forest s t o ot her l and use and ( i ii) int act forest s t o non-i nt act forest s. I n part i cul ar carbon
emi ssi on from forest degr adat i on for each forest t ype consi st s of t wo fact ors: t he
di fference i n carbon cont ent bet ween int act and non-int act forest s and t he area l oss of
int act forest ar ea during the accounti ng peri od. Thi s accounti ng st rat egy i s full y
compat i bl e wi t h t he set of rul es devel oped i n t he I PCC LULUCF Gui dance and AFOLU
Gui delines for the sect ions “ Forest l and remai ning Forest l and” .

Figure 2 .2.4. Forest conversi ons t ypes considered in t he accounting syst em.
other land use
non-intact forest
intact forests

The f orest degradat ion i s i ncl uded in t he conver sion from i nt act t o non-int act forest , and
t hus account ed as carbon st ock change in t hat proportion of forest l and remai ning as
forest l and ( Fi gure 2.2.5) .
2- 39
Figure 2.2 .5. Forest degr adat i on
assessment i n Papua New Guinea.
The Landsat sat ell i t e i mages ( a) and
( b) are r epr esent i ng the same
portion of PNG t erri tori es i n t he Gul f
Provi nce and t hey have been
acqui red respect i vel y in 26.12.1988
and 07.10.2002. I n t hi s part of
t erri t ory i t i s present onl y t he
lowl and forest t ype.
I n t he i mage ( a) i t i s possi bl e to
recogni ze l oggi ng roads onl y on t he
east si de of t he ri ver, whil e i n t he
i mage ( b) i t i s possi bl e t o recogni ze
a ver y wel l devel oped logging road
syst em al so on the west si de of t he
ri ver. The forest canopy ( brown-
orange- red col ours) does not seem
t o have evi dent changes i n spect r al
properti es ( all t hese i mages ar e
refl ect ing t he same Landsat band
combi nat ion 4,5,3) .
The i mages ( a1) and ( b1) ar e
respect i vel y t he same i mages (a)
and ( b) wi t h some pat t erned
pol ygons, whi ch are represent ing t he
ext ension of t he i nt act forest i n t he
respect i ve dat es. I n t hi s case an on-
screen vi sual int erpret at i on met hod
has been used t o del ineat e i nt act
forest boundari es.
I n order t o assess carbon l oss from
forest degr adat ion for thi s part of i t s
t erri t ory, PNG could report t hat i n 14
year s, 51% of the exi st i ng int act
forest l and has been convert ed t o
non-int act forest l and. Thus t he t ot al
carbon loss shoul d be equi val ent t o
t he int act f orest area l oss mul ti pli ed
by t he carbon cont ent difference
bet ween int act and non-i nt act forest
l and.
I n t hi s part i cul ar case, deforest at i on
( road net work) i s accounting for l ess
t han 1%.
Area size: ~ 20km x 10 km
a)
a1)
b)
b1)
2- 40

2. 2. 2 Key references for Sect ion 2.2
Achard F, DeFri es R, Eva HD, Hansen M, Mayaux P, Sti bi g H- J (2007) Pan-t ropi cal
moni toring of deforest at i on. Environment al Resear ch Let t er s 2: 045022
Asner GP, Knapp DE, Broadbent E, Ol i vi era P, Kell er M, Sil va J ( 2005) Sel ect i ve l ogging
in t he Brazili an Amazon. Science 310: 480–482.
DeFri es R, Achard F, Brown S, Herol d M, Murdi yarso D, Schl amadi nger B, Souza C
(2007) Eart h Observat i ons for Esti mat i ng Greenhouse Gas Emi ssi ons from
Deforest at i on i n Devel opi ng Count ri es. Envi ronment al Science and Policy 10: 385–
394.
Duveill er G, Defourny P, Descl ée B, Mayaux P ( 2008) Def orest at i on in Cent ral Afri ca:
est i mat es at r egi onal , nat ional and l andscape l evel s by advanced processi ng of
syst emat i call y- di st ri but ed Landsat ext r act s. Remot e Sensing of Environment 112:
1969–1981
FAO ( 2006) Gl obal Forest Resources Assessment 2005: Main Report , Food and
Agri cul ture Organi zat i on ( FAO) . ht t p: / / www.fao. org/ forest ry/ f ra2005
FSI (2008) St at e of Forest Report 2005. Forest Survey of I ndi a ( Dehra Dun) . 171 p.
ht t p: / / www.fsi .ni c.in/
Greenpeace ( 2006) Roadmap t o Recovery: The Worl d' s Last I nt act Forest Landscapes.
www. int act f orest s.org
Hansen MC, St ehman SV, Pot apov PV et al . ( 2008) Humi d t ropi cal forest cl earing from
2000 to 2005 quanti fi ed by using mul ti t emporal and mul tiresolution remot el y sensed
dat a. Proc Nat l Acad Sci 105: 9439-9444.
I NPE ( 2008) Moni toring of t he Forest y Cover of Amazoni a from Sat ell it es: proj ect s
PRODES, DETER, DEGRAD and QUEI MADAS 2007-2008. Nat i onal Space Agency of
Brazil . 48 p. ht t p: / / www.obt .inpe.br/ prodes/
I PCC ( 2003) Good Pract i ce Gui dance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forest r y
(LULUCF) . ht t p: / / www.i pcc- nggi p.i ges. or.j p
I PCC (2006) Guidel ines for Nat i onal Greenhouse Gas I nvent ori es – Volume 4:
Agri cul ture, Land Use and Forest r y ( AFOLU) . ht t p: / / www.i pcc- nggi p.iges.or.j p/
Mayaux P, Hol mgren P, Achard F, Eva HD, St ibi g H- J, Brant homme A ( 2005) Tropi cal
forest cover change i n the 1990s and opt ions for future moni toring. Philos. Trans.
Roy. Soc. B 360: 373–384
Mol licone D, Achard F, Federi ci S et al . ( 2007) An i ncent i ve mechani sm for reducing
emi ssi ons from conversi on of i nt act and non-intact forest s. Climat i c Change 83: 477–
493
Pot apov P, Yaroshenko A, Turubanova S, et al . ( 2008) Mappi ng t he world’s i nt act f orest
l andscapes by remot e sensi ng. Ecology and Societ y 13: 51
Souza C, Robert s D ( 2005) Mappi ng forest degradat i on in t he Amazon region wi th I konos
i mages. I nt . J. Remot e Sensing 26: 425–429.
Vi ei ra I CG, de Al mei da AS, Davi dson EA, St one TA, de Carval ho CJR, Guerrero JB (2003)
Cl assi fying successi onal forest s using Landsat spect r al properti es and ecologi cal
char act eri st i cs in east ern Amazôni a. Remot e Sensing of Environment . 87: 470–481

2- 41

2.3 ESTI MATI ON OF ABOVE GROUND CARBON STOCKS
Ti m Pear son, Wi nrock I nt ernat i onal , USA
Nancy Harri s, Winrock I nt ernat i onal , USA
Davi d Shoch, The Nat ure Conservancy, USA
Sandra Brown, Winrock I nt ernat i onal , USA
2. 3. 1 Scope of chapter
Chapt er 2.3 present s guidance on t he est imat ion of t he emission fact or s—t he
changes in above ground biomass carbon st ocks of t he forests being deforest ed
and degraded. Guidance is provided on: ( i) which of t he t hree I PCC Tiers should
be used, ( ii ) pot ent ial met hods for t he st rat ificat ion by Carbon St ock of a
count ry’s forest s and ( i ii) act ual Estimat ion of Carbon St ocks of Forest s
Undergoing Change.
Moni toring t he locat i on and areal ext ent of change i n forest cover repr esent s onl y one of
t wo component s invol ved in assessing emi ssi ons and removal s from REDD+ rel at ed
act i vi ti es. The ot her component i s t he emi ssi on fact ors—t hat i s, t he changes i n carbon
st ocks of t he forest s undergoi ng change t hat ar e combi ned wi t h t he act i vi t y dat a for
est i mat i ng t he net emi ssi ons. The focus in t hi s chapt er wil l be on est i mat ing carbon
st ocks of exi st ing forest s t hat ar e subj ect t o deforest at i on and degradat i on. Al though
li t tl e at t ent ion i s gi ven here t o ar eas undergoing afforest at ion and reforest at i on, t he
gui dance provi ded wil l be appli cabl e.

I n Sect ion 2 .3.2 guidance i s provi ded on: Whi ch Ti er Should be Used? The I PCC GL
AFOLU allow for t hree Ti ers wi th increasi ng compl exi t y and cost s of moni t oring forest
carbon st ocks.
I n Sect ion 2.3 .3 the focus i s on: St rat i fi cat ion by Carbon St ock. As di scussed i n 2.2.1.1
st r at i fi cat i on i s an essent i al st ep t o al low an accurat e, cost eff ect i ve and cr edi t abl e
li nkage bet ween t he remot e sensi ng i magery est i mat es of areas deforest ed and
est i mat es of carbon st ocks and t herefore net emi ssions. I n t hi s sect i on gui dance i s
provi ded on pot enti al met hods for the st r at i fi cat ion of a count ry’s forest s.
I n Sect ion 2.3.4 guidance i s gi ven on t he act ual Est i mat ion of above ground biomass
Carbon St ocks of Forest s Undergoing Change. St eps ar e gi ven on how t o devi se and
i mpl ement a f orest carbon invent ory.
2- 42
2. 3. 2 Overview of carbon st ocks, and issues relat ed t o C st ocks
2.3 .2.1 I ssues relat ed t o carbon st ocks
2.3 .2.1.1 Fat e of carbon pools as a result of deforest at ion and degradation
A forest i s composed of pool s of carbon st ored i n t he li ving t rees above and
belowground, i n dead mat t er i ncluding st anding dead t r ees, down woody debri s and
li t t er, in non- t ree underst ory veget at i on and in t he soi l organi c mat t er. When t rees ar e
cut down t here are t hree dest i nat i ons for t he st ored carbon – dead wood, wood product s
or t he at mospher e.
 I n al l cases, following deforest at ion and degradat i on, t he st ock i n living t rees
decr eases.
 Where degr adat i on has occurred t hi s i s oft en fol lowed by a r ecover y unl ess
conti nued ant hropogeni c pressure or al t ered ecol ogi c condi ti ons precl udes t r ee
regrowt h.
 The decr eased t r ee carbon st ock can ei t her resul t i n i ncreased dead wood,
increased wood product s or i mmedi at e emi ssi ons.
 Dead wood st ocks may be all owed t o decompose over t i me or may, aft er a gi ven
period, be burned l eading t o furt her emi ssions.
 Wood product s over t i me decompose, burned, or are ret i red t o l and fill .
 Where deforest at i on occurs, t rees can be r epl aced by non- t ree veget at i on such as
grasses or crops. I n t hi s case, t he new l and- use has consi st ent l y lower pl ant
bi omass and oft en lower soil carbon, parti cul arl y when convert ed t o annual crops.
 Where a f allow cycl e r esul t s, t hen periods of crops ar e i nt erspersed wi t h peri ods
of forest r egrowt h t hat may or may not reach t he t hreshold for defi ni ti on as
forest .
Fi gure 2.3.1 below ill ust rat es pot ent i al fat es of exi st ing forest carbon st ocks af t er
deforest at i on.
Figure 2 .3.1. Fat e of exi st ing forest carbon st ocks af t er deforest at i on.
Trees Dead Wood Soil Carbon Non-tree
Vegetation
Wood
Products
Before Deforestation
After Deforestation
C
a
r
b
o
n

S
t
o
c
k

2- 43

Non-Tree Vegetation
Harvested Products
Dead Wood
Soil Carbon
Trees
C
a
r
b
o
n

S
t
o
c
k
Time

2.3 .2.1.2 The need for st rat ificat ion and how it relat es t o remot e sensing dat a
Carbon st ocks var y by forest t ype, for exampl e t ropi cal pine forest s will have a di fferent
st ock t han t ropi cal broadl eaf forest s whi ch will agai n have di fferent st ock t han woodl ands
or mangrove forest s. Even wi t hin broadl eaf t ropi cal forest s, st ocks wil l vary gr eat l y wi t h
el evat i on, rainfall and soil t ype. Then even wi t hin a gi ven f orest t ype in a gi ven locat i on
t he degree of human di st urbance wil l l ead t o furt her di f ferences in st ocks. The resol uti on
of most readil y and inexpensi vel y avail abl e remot e sensi ng i magery i s not good enough
t o di fferent i at e bet ween di fferent forest t ypes or even bet ween di st urbed and
undi st urbed forest , and t hus cannot di fferenti at e di fferent forest carbon st ocks.
Therefore st r at i fyi ng forest s can l ead t o mor e accurat e and cost effect i ve emi ssion
est i mat es associ at ed wi t h a gi ven ar ea of deforest at i on or degradat i on (see more on t hi s
t opi c below in sect ion 2. 3.4) .
2. 3. 3 Which Ti er should be used?
2.3 .3.1 Explanat ion of I PCC Tier s
The I PCC GPG and AFOLU Guidel ines present t hree gener al approaches for est i mat i ng
emi ssi ons/ removal s of greenhouse gases, known as “ Ti ers” ranging from 1 t o 3
represent ing increasi ng l evel s of dat a r equirement s and anal yt i cal compl exi t y. Despi t e
di fferences i n approach among t he t hree t i ers, al l ti ers have in common t hei r adherence
t o I PCC good pract i ce concept s of t ransparency, compl et eness, consi st ency,
compar abili t y, and accuracy.
Ti er 1 requi res no new dat a coll ect ion t o generat e est i mat es of forest bi omass. Def aul t
values for forest bi omass and forest biomass mean annual increment ( MAI ) are obt ai ned
from t he I PCC Emi ssion Fact or Dat a Base ( EFDB) , correspondi ng t o broad cont inent al
forest t ypes ( e.g. Afri can t ropi cal rainforest ) . Ti er 1 est i mat es t hus provi de li mi t ed
resoluti on of how forest bi omass vari es sub- nat i onall y and have a l arge error range ( ~
+ / - 50% or more) for growi ng st ock i n devel oping count ri es ( Box 2.3.1). The former i s
i mport ant because deforest at i on and degradat ion t end t o be locali zed and hence may
affect subset s of forest t hat di ffer consi st ent l y from a l arger scal e aver age ( Fi gure
2. 3.2) . Ti er 1 al so uses si mpli fi ed assumpt i ons t o cal cul at e net emi ssions. For
deforest at i on, Ti er 1 uses t he si mpli fi ed assumpt i on of i nst ant aneous emi ssions from
woody veget at ion, li t t er and dead wood. To est i mat e emi ssi ons from degradat i on (i . e.
Deforest at i on event
2- 44
Forest remai ning as Forest ) , Ti er 1 appl i es t he gai n-loss met hod (see Ch 1) using a
defaul t MAI combi ned wi t h l osses r eport ed from wood removal s and di st urbances, wi t h
t ransf ers of biomass t o dead organi c mat t er est i mat ed using defaul t equat ions.
Box 2. 3.1. Error in Carbon St ocks from Tier 1 Report ing
To illust rat e t he error in appl yi ng Ti er 1 carbon st ocks for t he carbon el ement of
REDD+ reporting, a compari son i s made her e bet ween t he Ti er 1 resul t and t he
carbon st ock est i mat ed from on- t he- ground I PCC Good Pract i ce- conformi ng plot
measurement s from si x si t es around t he worl d. As can be seen in t he t abl e below,
t he I PCC Ti er 1 predi ct ed st ocks r ange from 33 % higher t o 44 % lower t han a
mean deri ved f rom mul tipl e plot measurement s i n t he gi ven forest t ype.


Fi gure 2.3.2 bel ow il lust rat es a hypot het i cal forest area, wi t h a subset of t he overall
forest , or st r at a, denot ed i n li ght green. Despi t e t he f act t hat t he forest over all (i ncl uding
t he light green st rat a) has an accurat e and preci se mean bi omass st ock of 150 t C/ ha,
t he li ght green st r at a al one has a si gnifi cantl y di fferent mean biomass carbon st ock ( 50 t
C/ ha) . Because deforest at i on oft en t akes pl ace al ong “f ront s” ( e. g. agri cul t ural fronti ers)
t hat may r epresent dif ferent subset s from a broad forest t ype (l i ke t he li ght green st rat a
at t he peri phery here) a spat i al resoluti on of forest bi omass carbon st ocks i s requi red t o
accur at el y assi gn st ocks t o where l oss of forest cover t akes pl ace. Assuming
deforest at i on was t aki ng pl ace i n t he li ght green area onl y and t he anal yst was not
awar e of t he different st rat a, appl yi ng the overal l forest st ock t o t he light green st r at a
al one woul d gi ve i naccurat e resul t s, and t hat source of uncert ai nt y coul d onl y be
di scerned by subsequent ground- t ruthing.
Fi gure 2.3.2 al so demonst rat es t he i nadequaci es of ext r apol at ing locali zed dat a across a
broad forest area, and hence t he need t o st r at if y forest s accordi ng t o expect ed carbon
st ocks and t o augment l i mi t ed exi st ing dat aset s ( e.g. forest i nvent ori es and research
st udi es conduct ed locall y) wi th suppl ement al dat a col l ect i on.

2- 45
Figure 2 .3.2. A hypot heti cal forest ar ea, wi t h a subset of t he over all forest , or st rat a,
denot ed in light green.

0
40
80
120
160
200
b
i
o
m
a
s
s

C

t

p
e
r

h
a
0
40
80
120
160
200
b
i
o
m
a
s
s

C

t

p
e
r

h
a


At t he ot her ext reme, Ti er 3 i s t he most ri gorous approach associ at ed wi t h t he highest
l evel of effort . Ti er 3 uses act ual forest carbon invent ori es wi t h repeat ed measures of
pl ot s t o direct l y measure changes i n forest biomass and/ or uses wel l paramet eri zed
model s in combi nat i on wi th pl ot dat a. Ti er 3 oft en focuses on measurement s of t rees
onl y, and uses regi on/ forest speci fi c defaul t dat a and modeli ng for t he ot her pool s. The
Ti er 3 approach requi res l ong- t erm commi t ment s of resources and personnel , generall y
invol ving t he est abli shment of a per manent organi zat i on t o house t he program ( see
sect ion 3.2) . The Ti er 3 approach can t hus be expensi ve i n t he devel oping count ry
cont ext , part i cul arl y where onl y a si ngl e obj ect i ve ( est i mat ing emi ssi ons of greenhouse
gases) support s t he i mpl ement at i on cost s. Unl i ke Ti er 1, Ti er 3 does not assume
i mmedi at e emi ssi ons from deforest at ion, i nst ead model ing t ransf er s and rel eases among
pool s t hat more accurat el y refl ect how emi ssi ons are reali zed over t i me. To est i mat e
emi ssi ons from degradat i on, in cont rast t o Ti er 1, a Ti er 3 uses t he st ock diff erence
approach where change i n forest bi omass st ocks i s direct l y est i mat ed from r epeat ed
measures possi bl y in combinat i on wi th model s.
Ti er 2 i s aki n t o Ti er 1 in t hat i t employs st at ic forest bi omass i nformat i on, but i t al so
i mproves on t hat approach by usi ng count ry- speci fi c dat a ( i .e. col l ect ed wi t hin t he
nat i onal boundary) , and by resol ving forest biomass at finer scal es t hrough t he
deli neat i on of more det ail ed st r at a. Al so, l i ke Ti er 3, Ti er 2 can modi fy t he Ti er 1
assumpt i on t hat carbon st ocks in woody veget at i on, li t t er and deadwood are
i mmedi at el y emi t t ed fol lowi ng def orest at i on (i .e. t hat st ocks aft er conver sion are zero) ,
and i nst ead devel op di st urbance mat ri ces t hat model ret ent i on, t ransfer s ( e.g. from
woody biomass t o dead wood/ l i t t er) and releases ( e.g. t hrough decomposi ti on and
burni ng) among pool s. For degradat i on, i n t he absence of repeat ed measures from a
represent at i ve i nvent ory, Ti er 2 uses t he gain-l oss met hod using l ocal l y- deri ved dat a on
mean annual increment . Done wel l , a Ti er 2 approach can yi el d si gnifi cant i mprovement s
over Ti er 1 in reduci ng uncert ai nt y, and t hough not as preci se as r epeat ed measures
2- 46
usi ng plot s t hat can focus direct l y on st ock change and i ncrement , Ti er 2 does not
requi re t he sust ai ned i nst i tuti onal backi ng.
2.3 .3.2 Dat a needs for each Tier
The avail abilit y of dat a i s anot her i mport ant consi derat i on in t he sel ect i on of an
appropri at e Ti er. Ti er 1 has essent i all y no dat a coll ect i on needs beyond consulti ng t he
I PCC t abl es and EFDB, whi l e Ti er 3 requi res mobi li zat ion of resources where no nat ional
forest i nvent ory i s in pl ace (i .e. most devel oping count ri es) . Dat a needs for each Ti er ar e
summari zed in Tabl e 2.3.1.
Table 2.3.1. Dat a needs for meet i ng the requi rement s of t he t hree I PCC Ti ers.
Tier
Dat a needs/ examples of appropriat e
biomass dat a
Ti er 1 ( basi c)
Def aul t MAI * (for degradat i on) and/ or forest
bi omass st ock ( for deforest at i on) val ues for
broad conti nent al forest t ypes—i ncludes si x
cl asses f or each cont inent al area t o
encompass di fferences i n el evat i on and
gener al cl i mat i c zone; def aul t val ues gi ven
for all veget at i on- based pool s
Ti er 2
(i nt ermedi at e)
MAI * and/ or forest bi omass values from
exi st i ng forest i nvent ori es and/ or ecologi cal
st udi es.
Def aul t val ues provi ded for al l non- t ree pool s
Newl y- col l ect ed forest biomass dat a.
Ti er 3 (most
demandi ng)
Repeat ed measurement s of t rees from pl ot s
and/ or cali brat ed process model s. Can use
defaul t dat a for ot her pool s st rat i fi ed by i n-
count ry regions and forest t ype, or est i mat es
from process model s.
* MAI = Mean annual i ncrement of t ree growt h

2.3 .3.3 Select ion of Tier
Ti ers shoul d be sel ect ed on t he basi s of goal s ( e.g. accurat e and preci se est i mat es of
emi ssi ons reduct i ons in t he cont ext of a performance-based i ncent i ves fr amework;
conservat i ve est i mat e subj ect t o deduct ions) , t he si gni fi cance of t he t arget source/ sink,
avail abl e dat a, and anal yt i cal capabil i t y.
The I PCC recommends t hat it is good pract ice t o use higher Tier s for t he
measurement of significant sour ces/ sinks. To more cl earl y speci fy l evel s of dat a
col l ect i on and anal yt i cal rigor among sources/ sinks of emi ssi ons/ removal s, t he I PCC
Gui delines provi de guidance on t he i denti fi cat ion of “ Key Cat egori es” . Key cat egori es ar e
sources/ si nks of emi ssions/ removal s t hat cont ribut e subst ant i al l y t o t he over all nat i onal
invent ory and/ or nat i onal i nvent ory t rends, and/ or are key sources of uncert aint y in
quant ifyi ng overall invent ory amount s or t rends. Key cat egori es can be furt her broken
down to ident i fy si gnifi cant sub- cat egori es or pool s (e.g. above- ground bi omass, bel ow-
ground bi omass, li t t er, and dead wood) t hat consti t ut e > 25- 30 % emi ssi ons/ removal s
for t he cat egory.
Due t o t he bal ance of cost s and t he requi rement for accur acy/ preci sion in t he carbon
component of emi ssion invent ori es, a Ti er 2 met hodology for carbon st ock moni t oring
will likel y be t he most wi del y used i n bot h for set t i ng t he refer ence l evel and f or future
2- 47
reporti ng of net emi ssions f rom def orest at i on and degradat i on. Al though i t i s suggest ed
t hat a Ti er 3 met hodol ogy be t he l evel t o ai m for key cat egori es and pool s, i n pract i ce
Ti er 3 may be t oo cost l y t o be wi del y used, at l east i n t he near t erm.
On t he ot her hand, Ti er 1 will not deli ver t he accur at e and preci se est i mat es needed for
key cat egori es/ pool s by any mechani sm i n whi ch economi c i ncent i ves are foreseen.
However, t he princi pl e of conservat i veness wil l li kel y represent a fundament al
inst rument t o ensure envi ronment al i nt egri t y of REDD+ est i mat es. I n t hat case, a t i er
lower t han requi red could be used – or a carbon pool could be i gnored - i f i t can be
soundl y demonst rat ed t hat t he over all est i mat e of reduced emi ssions are
underest i mat ed (furt her expl anat i on i s gi ven in sect ion 2.8.4) .
Diff erent t i ers can be appli ed t o di f ferent pool s where t hey have a l ower i mport ance. For
exampl e, where prel i minary observat ions demonst rat e t hat emi ssi ons from t he lit t er or
dead wood or soil carbon pool consti t ut e l ess t han 25% of emi ssions from deforest at i on,
t he Ti er 1 approach usi ng defaul t t ransfers and decomposi tion rat es woul d be j ust i fi ed
for appli cat ion t o t hat pool .
2. 3. 4 St rat i ficati on by carbon stocks
St rat i fi cat ion refers t o t he di vi sion of any het erogeneous l andscape i nt o di stinct sub-
sect ions ( or st rat a) based on some common grouping fact or. I n t hi s case, t he grouping
fact or i s t he st ock of carbon in t he veget at ion. I f mul ti pl e f orest t ypes ar e pr esent across
a count ry, st r at i fi cat i on i s t he first st ep i n a wel l - desi gned sampling scheme for
est i mat i ng carbon emi ssi ons associ at ed wi t h deforest at i on and degradat i on over bot h
l arge and small areas. St r at i fi cat ion i s t he cri ti cal st ep t hat wi ll allow t he associ at i on of a
gi ven ar ea of deforest at i on and degradat i on wi t h an appropri at e veget at ion carbon st ock
for t he cal cul at i on of net emi ssions.
2.3 .4.1 Why st rat ify?
Diff erent carbon st ocks exi st in different forest t ypes and ecoregi ons depending on
physi cal fact ors ( e.g., preci pi t at ion regi me, t emper at ure, soil t ype, t opography) ,
bi ol ogi cal fact ors ( t r ee speci es composi t i on, st and age, st and densi t y) and ant hropogeni c
fact ors ( di st urbance hi st ory, l ogging int ensi t y) . For exampl e, secondary f orest s have
lower carbon st ocks t han mat ure forest s and logged forest s have l ower carbon st ocks
t han unlogged f orest s. Associ at i ng a gi ven ar ea of deforest at i on wi t h a speci fi c carbon
st ock t hat i s rel evant t o t he l ocat i on that i s deforest ed or degr aded will resul t in more
accur at e and preci se est i mat es of carbon l osses. Thi s i s t he case for all l evel s of
deforest at i on assessment from a very coarse Tier 1 assessment t o a hi ghl y det ai l ed Ti er
3 assessment .
Because ground sampli ng i s usual l y required t o det ermi ne appropri at e carbon est i mat es
for t he speci fi c areas t hat wer e def orest ed or degr aded, st r at i fyi ng an ar ea by i t s carbon
st ocks can increase accuracy and precision and reduce cost s. Nat i onal carbon
accounti ng needs t o emphasi ze a syst em i n whi ch st rat i fi cat i on and refi nement ar e based
on carbon cont ent ( or expect ed change i n carbon cont ent ) of speci fi c forest t ypes, not
necessaril y of forest veget at i on. For exampl e, t he carbon st ocks of a “ t ropi cal rai n forest ”
( one veget at i on cl ass) may be vast l y di fferent wi th respect t o carbon st ocks depending
on i t s geographi c locat i on and degree of di st urbance.
2.3 .4.2 Approaches t o st rat ificat ion
There are t wo di fferent approaches f or st r at i fying forest s for nat i onal carbon accounting,
bot h of whi ch requi re some spat i al informat i on on forest cover wi thin a count ry. I n
Approach A, all of a count ry’s forest s are st r at i fi ed ‘up- front ’ and carbon est i mat es ar e
made t o produce a count ry- wi de map of forest carbon st ocks. At fut ure moni toring
event s, onl y t he act i vi t y dat a need t o be moni tored and combined wi t h t he pre-
est i mat ed carbon st ock val ues. Such a map would t hen need t o be updat ed periodi call y—
2- 48
at l east once per commi t ment peri od. I n Approach B, a f ull l and cover map of t he whol e
count ry does not need t o be cr eat ed. Rat her, carbon est i mat es are made at each
moni tori ng event onl y i n t hose areas t hat have undergone change. Whi ch approach t o
use depends on a count ry’s access t o rel evant and up- t o-dat e dat a as wel l as i t s fi nanci al
and t echnologi cal resources. See Box 2.3.2 t hat provi des a deci sion t ree t hat can be
used t o sel ect whi ch st rat i fi cat ion approach t o use. Det ail s of each approach are outl ined
below.
Box 2. 3.2. Decision t ree for st rat ificat ion approach

Do you have an existing
land cover map for the
whole country?
Was this map made
<5 years ago?
Is this map ground-
truthed to
acceptable levels of
accuracy?
Use
Approach
A
Are resources
available to
ground-truth this
map?
Use
Approach
B
yes yes
yes
no no
yes
yes
no
no
Are resources
available to create a
new land cover
map?
no
no
Are resources
available to update
this map?
yes


Approach A: ‘Up- front ’ st rat ificat ion using existing or updat ed land cover maps
The fi rst st ep i n st rat i fyi ng by carbon st ocks is t o det ermi ne whet her a nat i onal l and
cover or l and use map al ready exi st s. Thi s can be done by consul ting wi th government
agenci es, forest ry expert s, uni versi t i es, t he FAO, i nt ernet , and t he li ke who may have
creat ed t hese maps f or ot her purposes.
Before using t he exi st i ng l and cover or l and use map for st rat i fi cat ion, i t s quali t y and
rel evance should be assessed. For exampl e:
 When was t he map cr eat ed? Land cover change i s of t en rapid and t herefore a
l and cover map t hat was cr eat ed more t han fi ve year s ago i s most li kel y out - of-
dat e and no longer rel evant . I f t hi s i s t he case, a new l and cover map should be
creat ed. To par t i ci pat e i n REDD+ act i vi ti es i t i s li kel y a count ry wil l need t o have
at l east a l and cover map for a rel at i vel y recent t i me ( benchmar k map—see
sect ion 2.1) .
 I s t he exi st ing map at an appropri at e r esol uti on for your count ry’s si ze and l and
cover di st ri buti on? Land cover maps deri ved from coarse- resolution sat elli t e
i magery may not be det ail ed enough for very smal l count ri es and/ or for count ri es
wi th a hi ghl y pat chy di st ri but ion of forest ar ea. For most count ri es, l and cover
maps deri ved from medi um- resol ut ion i mager y (e.g. , 30- m resol uti on Landsat
i magery) are adequat e ( cf. sect ion 2.1) .
 I s t he map ground vali dat ed for accur acy? An accuracy assessment should be
carri ed out before using any l and cover map i n addi ti onal anal yses. Gui dance on
assessing t he accuracy of remot e sensi ng dat a i s gi ven in sect i on 2.6.
2- 49
Land cover and l and use maps are somet i mes produced for di fferent purposes and
t heref ore t he cl assi fi cat i on may not be full y useabl e in t hei r current form. For exampl e, a
l and use map may cl assi fy all forest t ypes as one broad ‘forest ’ cat egory, whi ch woul d
not be val uabl e for carbon st r at i fi cat ion unl ess more det ail ed i nformat i on was avail abl e
t o suppl ement t hi s map. I ndi cat or maps ar e val uabl e for adding det ail to broadl y defi ned
forest cat egori es ( see Box 2.3.3 for exampl es) , but shoul d be used j udi ciousl y t o avoi d
overcompli cat i ng the i ssue. I n most cases, overl aying one or t wo indi cat or maps
( el evat i on and di st ance t o t ransport at i on net works, for exampl e) wi t h a forest / non-f orest
l and cover map shoul d be adequat e for delineat i ng forest st r at a by carbon st ocks.
Once st r at a ar e deli neat ed on a ground- val idat ed l and cover map and f orest t ypes have
been i dent i fi ed, carbon st ocks ar e est i mat ed for each st r at um usi ng appropri at e
measuring and moni t ori ng met hods. A nat ional map of forest carbon st ocks can t hen be
creat ed ( cf Sect i on 2.3.4) .
Box 2. 3.3. Examples of maps on which a land use st rat ificat ion can be built
Ecologi cal zone maps
One opt ion for count ri es wi t h vi rtuall y no dat a on carbon st ocks i s t o st rat i fy t he
count ry ini ti all y by ecologi cal zone or ecoregion usi ng global dat aset s. Exampl es of
t hese maps include:
1. Hol dri dge l ife zones (ht t p: / / geodat a.gri d.unep.ch/ )
2. WWF ecoregi ons ( ht t p: / / www.worl dwildli fe.org/ sci ence/ dat a/ t erreco.cfm)
3. FAO ecologi cal zones ( ht t p: / / www.fao.org/ geonet work/ srv/ en/ mai n.home,
t ype ‘ecologi cal zones’ in sear ch box)


I ndi cat or maps
Aft er ecologi cal zone maps ar e overl ai n wi th maps of forest cover t o delineat e
where forest s wi t hin different ecol ogi cal zones are l ocat ed, t here are sever al
i ndi cat ors t hat coul d be used for furt her st rat i fi cat i on. These indi cat ors can be
ei t her biophysi call y- or ant hropogeni cal l y- based:
Biophysical indicat or maps Ant hropogenic indicat or maps
El evat ion Di st ance t o deforest ed l and or forest edge
Topography ( sl ope and aspect ) Di st ance t o t owns and vi ll ages
Soi ls Proxi mi t y t o t ransport at i on net works ( roads,
ri vers)
Forest Age ( if known) Rural popul at ion densi t y
Areas of prot ect ed f orest

2- 50
I n Approach A, all of t he carbon est i mat es woul d be made once, up-front , i . e., at t he
begi nning of moni t ori ng program, and no addi tional carbon est i mat es woul d be
necessar y f or t he remai nder of t he moni tori ng or commi t ment period - onl y t he act i vi t y
dat a woul d need t o be moni t ored. Thi s does assume t hat t he carbon st ocks i n t he
ori gi nal forest s bei ng moni tored would not change much over about 10-20 years—such a
si t uat ion i s l i kel y t o exi st where most of t he forest s are rel at i vel y i nt act , have been
subj ect t o low int ensi t y sel ect i ve logging in t he past , no maj or infrast ruct ure exi st s i n t he
areas, and/ or are at a l at e secondary st age ( > 40- 50 year s) . When t he forest s i n
quest i on do not meet t he aforement ioned cri t eri a, t hen new est i mat es of t he carbon
st ocks coul d be made based on measurement s t aken more frequent l y—up t o l ess t han
10 years, or even more frequent l y if t he forest s ar e degr adi ng.
As ecol ogi cal zone maps ar e a global product , t hey t end t o be very broad and hence
cert ai n feat ures of t he l andscape t hat affect carbon st ocks wi t hin a count ry ar e not
account ed for. For exampl e, a count ry wi t h mount ai nous t err ai n woul d benefi t from
usi ng el evat ion dat a ( such as a di gi t al el evat ion model ) t o st rat i fy ecol ogi cal zones int o
di fferent el evat i onal sub-st rat a because forest biomass i s known t o decrease wi t h
el evat i on. Anot her exampl e would be t o st rat i fy t he ecol ogi cal zone map by soil t ype as
forest s on l oamy soil s t end t o have hi gher growt h pot enti al t han t hose on very sandy or
ver y cl ayey soil s. I f forest degr adat i on i s common in your count ry, st r at i fyi ng ecologi cal
zones by di st ance t o t owns and vill ages or t o t ransport at i on net works may be useful . An
exampl e of how t o st rat i fy a count ry wi t h li mi t ed dat a i s shown in Box 2.3.4.
2- 51

Box 2. 3.4. Forest st rat ificat ion in countries wit h li mit ed dat a availabilit y
An exampl e st rat i fi cat ion scheme i s shown here for t he Democrat i c Republ i c of
Congo.
St ep 1. Overl ay a map of forest cover wi t h an ecologi cal zone map ( A) .
St ep 2. Sel ect i ndi cat or maps. For t hi s exampl e, el evat i on ( B) and di st ance t o
roads ( C) were chosen as i ndi cat ors.
St ep 3. Combi ne all fact ors t o creat e a map of forest st r at a ( D) .

Stratified Forest
Ecological zone/Elevation catagory/Accessibility category ( thousands ha)
Tropical dry/< 1,000 m/<10 km (155 ha)
Tropical dry/< 1,000 m/> 10 km (15 ha)
Tropical moist deciduous/< 1,000 m/<10 km (1,355 ha)
Tropical moist deciduous/< 1,000 m/> 10 km (1,823 ha)
Tropical moist deciduous/> 1,000 m/<10 km (2,446 ha)
Tropical moist deciduous/> 1,000 m/> 10 km (3,864 ha)
Tropical mountain system/< 1,000 m/<10 km (404 ha)
Tropical mountain system/< 1,000 m/> 10 km (466 ha)
Tropical mountain system/> 1,000 m/<10 km (1,885 ha)
Tropical mountain system/> 1,000 m/> 10 km (3,003 ha)
Tropical rainforest/< 1,000 m/<10 km (46,628 ha)
Tropical rainforest/< 1,000 m/> 10 km (77,332 ha)
Tropical rainforest/> 1,000 m/<10 km (845 ha)
Tropical rainforest/> 1,000 m/> 10 km (1,647 ha)





( B)
( C)
( A)
( D)
2- 52
Approach B: Cont inuous st rat ificat ion based on a cont inuous car bon invent ory
Where wal l- t o- wall l and cover mappi ng i s not possi bl e for st rat i fying forest ar ea wi t hin a
count ry by carbon st ocks, r egul arl y- ti med “ invent ori es” can be made by sampl ing onl y
t he ar eas subj ect t o deforest at i on, degradat i on, and/ or enhancement . Usi ng t hi s
approach, a ful l l and cover map for the whol e count ry i s not necessary because carbon
assessment occurs onl y where l and cover change occurred ( forest t o non- forest , or i nt act
t o degraded forest in some cases) . Carbon measurement s can t hen be made in
nei ghboring pi xel s t hat have t he same r efl ect ance/ t ext ural charact eri sti cs as t he pi xel s
t hat had undergone change in t he previ ous int erval , ser vi ng as proxi es f or t he si t es
deforest ed or degraded, and carbon losses can be cal cul at ed.
Thi s approach i s l i kel y t he l east expensi ve opt ion as l ong as nei ghboring pi xel s t o be
measured ar e r el at i vel y easy t o access by fi eld t eams. However, t hi s approach i s not
recommended when vast ar eas of conti guous f orest ar e convert ed t o non-forest ,
because t he forest st ocks may have been t oo spat i all y vari abl e t o est i mat e a si ngl e
proxy carbon val ue for t he enti re forest ar ea t hat was convert ed. I f t hi s i s t he case, a
conservat i ve approach would be t o use t he lowest carbon st ock est i mat e for t he forest
area t hat was convert ed t o cal cul at e emi ssi ons i n the refer ence l evel and t he hi ghest
carbon st ock est i mat e i n t he moni toring phase.
2. 3. 5 Est imation of carbon st ocks of forests undergoi ng change
2.3 .5.1 Decisions on which carbon pools t o include
The deci sion on whi ch carbon pool s t o monit or as part of a REDD+ accounti ng scheme
will li kel y be governed by t he following fact ors:
 Avai l abl e financi al resources
 Avai l abil i t y of exi st i ng dat a
 Ease and cost of measurement
 The magni t ude of pot enti al change i n the pool
 The princi pl e of conservat i veness
Above al l i s t he princi pl e of conservat i veness. Thi s princi pl e ensures t hat report s of
decr eases i n emi ssions are not over st at ed. Clearly for t his purpose bot h reference
level and subsequent est imations must include exact ly t he same pools.
Conservat i veness al so allows for pool s t o be omit t ed except for t he dominant t ree carbon
pool and a precedent exi st s for Part i es t o sel ect whi ch pool s to moni tor wit hin t he Kyot o
Prot ocol and Marrakesh Accords ( see sect ion 2.8.4 for furt her di scussi on on
conservat i veness). For exampl e, i f dead wood or wood product s ar e omi t t ed t hen t he
assumpt i on must be t hat all the carbon sequest ered i n the t ree i s i mmedi at el y emi t t ed
and t hus reduct i on i n emi ssions from deforest at i on or degradat i on i s under-est i mat ed.
Li kewi se i f CO
2
emi t t ed from t he soi l i s excl uded as a source of emi ssions; and as l ong as
t hi s excl usi on i s const ant bet ween t he refer ence l evel and l at er est i mat i ons, t hen no
exagger at i on of emi ssi ons reduct i ons occurs.
2.3 .5.1.1 Key cat egories
The second deci ding fact or on whi ch carbon pool s to incl ude shoul d be t he rel at i ve
i mport ance of t he expect ed change i n each of the carbon pool s caused by deforest at i on
and degr adat i on. The magni t ude of t he carbon pool basi cal l y represent s t he magni tude
of t he emi ssions for deforest at i on as i t i s t ypicall y assumed t hat most of t he pool i s
oxi di zed, ei t her on or off si t e. For degr adat i on t he rel at i onshi p i s not as cl ear as usuall y
onl y t he t rees are aff ect ed for most causes of degradat i on.
I n all cases i t wi ll make sense t o i nclude t rees, as t rees are r el at i vel y easy t o measur e
and wi ll al ways repr esent a si gni fi cant proport ion of the t ot al carbon st ock. The
2- 53
remai ni ng pool s will represent varyi ng proportions of t ot al carbon depending on local
condi ti ons. For exampl e, bel owground biomass carbon ( root s) and soil carbon t o 30 cm
dept h represent s 26% of t ot al carbon st ock i n est i mat es i n t ropi cal l owl and f orest s of
Bolivi a but more t han 50 % i n t he peat f orest s of I ndonesi a ( Fi gure 2.3.3 a & b
23
) . I t i s
al so possi bl e t hat whi ch pool s are incl uded or not vari es by forest t ype/ st r at a wi t hi n a
count ry. I t i s possi bl e t hat say forest t ype A i n a gi ven count ry coul d have r el at i vel y hi gh
carbon st ocks i n t he dead wood and l it t er pools, whereas forest t ype B in t he count ry
coul d have l ow quanti ti es in t hese pool s—i n t hi s case i t mi ght make sense t o measure
t hese pool s in t he forest A but not B as t he emi ssions from deforest at i on woul d be higher
in A t han in B. I n ot her words, whi ch pool s are sel ect ed for moni tori ng do not need t o be
t he same for all forest t ypes wi t hi n a count ry.
Figure 2.3 .3. LEFT- Proporti on of t ot al st ock ( 202 t C/ ha) i n each carbon pool i n Noel
Kempff Cl i mat e Act ion proj ect ( a pil ot carbon proj ect ) , Bol i vi a, and RI GHT- Proporti on of
t ot al st ock ( 236 t C/ ha) in each carbon pool in peat forest in Cent ral Kali mant an,
I ndonesi a ( act i ve peat i ncludes soil organic carbon, li ve and dead root s, and
decomposi ng mat eri al s) .

Aboveground
trees
64%
Belowground
13%
Standing and lying
dead wood
7%
Understory
1%
Litter
2%
Soil to 30 cm
depth
13%
Aboveground
trees
41%
Understory
0%
Dead wood
6%
"Active" peat*
53%

Pool s can be di vi ded by ecosyst em and l and use change t ype i nt o key cat egori es or
minor cat egori es. Key cat egori es repr esent pools t hat coul d account for more t han 25%
of the t ot al emi ssions resul ting from t he deforest at i on or degradat i on ( Tabl e 2.3.2) .



23
Brown, S. 2002, Measuring, monit oring, and verif icat ion of carbon benef it s f ro f orest - based
proj ect s. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A. 360: 1669- 1683, and unpublished dat a f rom measurement s
by Winrock
2- 54
Table 2 .3.2. Broad gui dance on key cat egori es of carbon pool s for det ermi ning
assessment emphasi s. Key cat egory def i ned as pool s pot enti al l y responsi bl e for more
t han 25% of t ot al emi ssion resul ting from t he deforest at i on or degradat i on.
Biomass Dead organic mat ter Soils
Aboveground
Below-
ground
Dead wood Lit t er
Soil organic
mat ter
Deforest ation
To cropl and KEY KEY ( KEY) KEY
To past ure KEY KEY ( KEY)

To shi fting
cul ti vat i on
KEY KEY ( KEY)

Degradation
Degr adat i on KEY KEY
( KEY)

Cert ai n pool s such as soil carbon or even down dead mat eri al t end t o be qui t e vari abl e
and can be rel at i vel y t i me consumi ng and cost l y t o measure. The deci si on to incl ude
t hese pool s would therefore be made based on whet her t hey represent a key cat egory
and avail abl e financi al resources.
Soils will represent a key cat egory in peat swamp forest s and mangrove forest s wher e
carbon emi ssi ons will be high when deforest ed and drained (cf sect i on 2. 3) . For forest s
on mi neral soil s wi t h high organi c carbon cont ent and deforest at ion i s t o cropl and, as
much as 30- 40% of the t ot al soil organi c mat t er st ock can be l ost in the t op 30 cm or so
during t he fi rst 5 years. Wher e deforest at ion is t o past ure or shi fting cul ti vat i on, t he
sci ence does not support a l arge drop in soi l carbon st ocks, and t hus change in soil
carbon st ocks woul d not represent a key source.
Dead wood i s a key cat egory i n ol d growth forest where i t can represent more t han 10%
of tot al biomass, but in young successi onal f orest s, for exampl e, i t will not be a key
cat egory.
For carbon pool s represent i ng a fract ion of t he t ot al ( < 25 %) i t may be possi bl e t o
incl ude t hem at l ow cost if good defaul t dat a, vali dat ed wi t h local measures, ar e
avail abl e.
Box 2.3.5 provi des exampl es t hat i llust rat e t he scal e of pot ent i al emi ssi ons from j ust t he
aboveground biomass pool following deforest at i on and degradat i on in Bol i vi a, t he
Republi c of Congo and I ndonesi a.
2- 55
Box 2. 3.5. Pot ent ial emissions from deforest at ion and degradat ion in three
example count ries
The following t abl e shows t he decreases in t he carbon st ock of li ving t rees
est i mat ed for bot h deforest at ion, and degradat i on t hrough l egal sel ect i ve logging
f or t hree count ri es: Republi c of Congo, I ndonesia, and Bolivi a. The l arge
di fferences among t he count ri es for degradat i on refl ect s t he di fferences in int ensi t y
of ti mber ext r act i on ( about 3 t o 22 m3/ ha) .

2.3 .5.1.2 Defining carbon measurement pools:
St ep 1: I nclude aboveground t ree biomass
Al l assessment s shoul d include aboveground t ree bi omass as t he carbon st ock i n t hi s
pool i s si mpl e t o measure and est i mat e and will al most al ways domi nat e carbon st ock
changes
St ep 2: I nclude belowground t ree biomass
Belowground t ree bi omass ( root s) i s al most never measured, but i nst ead i s included
t hrough a rel at ionshi p t o aboveground bi omass ( usual l y a root - t o- shoot rat i o) . I f t he
veget at i on st rat a correspond wi th t ropi cal or subt ropi cal t ypes li st ed in Tabl e 2.3.3
( modi fi ed f rom Tabl e 2.2.4 in I PCC GL AFOLU t o exclude non- forest or non-t ropi cal
values and t o account for incorrect val ues) t hen i t makes sense t o incl ude root s.
Table 2.3.3. Root t o shoot rat i os modi fi ed* from Tabl e 4.4. i n I PCC GL AFOLU.
Domain Ecological Zone
Above-
ground
biomass
Root - to-
shoot ratio
Range
< 125 t .ha- 1 0.20 0. 09-0.25
Tropi cal rainforest
or humi d forest
> 125 t .ha- 1 0.24 0. 22-0.33
< 20 t .ha- 1 0.56 0. 28-0.68
Tropi cal
Tropi cal dry forest
> 20 t .ha- 1 0.28 0. 27-0.28
< 125 t .ha- 1 0.20 0. 09-0.25
Subt ropi cal humi d
forest
> 125 t .ha- 1 0.24 0. 22-0.33
< 20 t .ha- 1 0.56 0. 28-0.68
Subt ropi cal
Subt ropi cal dry
forest
> 20 t .ha- 1 0.28 0. 27-0.28
* t he modi fi cat i on correct s an error in t he t abl e based on communi cat ions wi t h Karel
Mokany, t he l ead aut hor of t he peer revi ewed paper f rom whi ch the dat a wer e ext r act ed.
2- 56
St ep 3: Assess t he relat ive import ance of additional carbon pools
Assessment of whet her ot her carbon pool s represent key cat egori es can be conduct ed
vi a a li t erat ure revi ew, di scussi ons wi t h uni versi ti es or even fi el d measurement s from a
few pi lot plot s fol lowi ng met hodologi cal gui dance al ready provi ded i n many of t he
sources gi ven i n t hi s sect i on.
St ep 4: Det ermine if resources are available t o include addit ional pools
When deci di ng i f addi tional pool s should be i ncluded or not , i t i s i mport ant t o remember
t hat whi chever pool has been incl uded in t he refer ence l evel t he same pool s shall be
incl uded i n al l future moni tori ng event s. Al though nat i onal or global defaul t val ues can
be used, i f t hey are a key cat egory t hey will make t he overall est i mat es more uncert ai n.
However, i t i s possi bl e t hat once a pool i s sel ect ed for moni t oring, defaul t val ues coul d
be used i ni ti all y wit h the i dea of i mprovi ng t hese val ues t hrough ti me, but even i f j ust a
one ti me measurement will be t he basi s of t he moni toring scheme, t her e ar e cost s
associ at ed wi t h incl udi ng addi ti onal pool s. For exampl e:
 for soil carbon—many sampl es of soil are coll ect ed and t hen must be anal yzed i n
a l aborat ory for bul k densi t y and percent soil carbon
 for non-t ree veget at i on—dest ruct i ve sampling is usuall y employed wi t h sampl es
col l ect ed and dri ed t o det ermi ne biomass and carbon st ock
 for down dead wood—st ocks are usual l y assessed al ong a t ransect wi t h t he
si mul t aneous coll ect i on and subsequent drying of sampl es for densi t y
I f t he pool i s a si gni fi cant source of emi ssions as a resul t of deforest at i on or degradat i on
i t will be wort h i ncludi ng i t in t he assessment i f i t i s possi bl e. An al t ernat i ve t o
measurement for mi nor carbon pool s ( < 25% of t he t ot al pot enti al emi ssi on) i s t o incl ude
est i mat es from t abl es of def aul t dat a wi t h high int egri t y ( peer- revi ewed).
2.3 .5.2 General approaches t o estimat ion of car bon st ocks
2.3 .5.2.1 St ep 1: I dent ify strata where assessment of carbon stocks is
necessar y
Not all forest st r at a ar e li kel y t o undergo def orest at i on or degradat i on. For exampl e,
st r at a t hat are current l y di st ant from exi st i ng deforest ed areas and/ or inaccessi bl e from
roads or ri vers ar e unli kel y t o be under i mmedi at e t hreat . Ther efore, a carbon
assessment of every forest st rat um wi t hin a count ry woul d not be cost - effect i ve because
not all forest s will undergo change.
For st r at i fi cat i on approach B ( descri bed above) , where and when t o conduct a carbon
assessment over each moni t oring period is defi ned by t he act i vi t y dat a, wi t h
measurement s t aki ng pl ace i n nearby areas t hat current l y have t he same r efl ect ance as
t he changed pi xel s had prior t o deforest at i on or degr adat i on . For st r at i fi cat i on approach
A, t he best st r at egy woul d be t o invest in carbon st ock assessment s for st rat a wher e
t here i s a hi st ory or fut ure li kelihood of degradat i on or deforest at i on, not for st rat a
where t her e i s li t tl e deforest at ion pressure.
SubSt ep 1 – For reference l evel ( and fut ure moni toring for approach B) : est abli sh
sampl ing pl ans in areas r epresent at i ve of t he ar eas wi t h recorded deforest at ion and/ or
degr adat i on.
SubSt ep 2 – For future moni toring: ident ify st r at a wher e deforest at ion and/ or
degr adat i on are li kel y t o occur. These wil l be st rat a adj oini ng exi st i ng deforest ed areas
or degraded forest , and/ or st rat a wi t h human access vi a roads or easil y navi gabl e
wat erways. Est abli sh sampling pl ans for t hese st rat a but , for t he current peri od, do not
invest i n measuring forest s t hat are hard t o access such as ar eas t hat are di st ant t o
t ransport at i on rout es, t owns, vil l ages and exi sting farml and, and/ or areas at high
el evat i ons or t hat experi ence ver y heavy rai nfall.
2- 57
2.3 .5.2.2 St ep 2 : Assess exist ing dat a
I t i s li kel y t hat wi t hi n most count ri es t her e wil l be some dat a al ready coll ect ed t hat coul d
be used t o defi ne t he carbon st ocks of one or more st r at a. These dat a coul d be deri ved
from a forest i nvent ory or perhaps from past sci enti fi c st udi es. Proceed wi t h
incorporati ng t hese dat a i f t he following cri t eri a ar e fulfi lled:
 The dat a are l ess t han 10 years ol d
 The dat a are deri ved from mult i pl e measurement pl ot s
 Al l speci es must be i ncl uded in t he invent ori es
 The mi ni mum di amet er for t rees incl uded i s 30cm or l ess at breast hei ght
 Dat a ar e sampl ed from good cover age of t he st r at a over whi ch t hey wil l be
ext r apol at ed
Exi st ing dat a t hat meet t he above cri t eri a should be appli ed across t he st r at a from whi ch
t hey were repr esent at i vel y sampl ed and not beyond t hat . The exi st i ng dat a will li kel y be
in one of t wo forms:
 Forest i nvent ory dat a
 Dat a from sci enti fi c st udi es
Forest inventory dat a
Typi call y f orest invent ori es have an economi c moti vat i on. As a consequence, f orest
invent ori es worl dwide are deri ved from good sampling desi gn. I f t he invent ory can be
appl i ed t o a st r at um, all speci es ar e i ncl uded and t he mi ni mum di amet er i s 30 cm or l ess
t hen t he dat a wil l be a hi gh enough qual i t y wi t h suffi ci entl y low uncert ai nt y for incl usion.
I nvent ory dat a t ypi call y comes i n t wo di fferent forms:
St and tables—t hese dat a from a t radi ti onal forest i nvent ory are pot ent i all y the most
useful from whi ch est i mat es of t he carbon st ock of t rees can be cal cul at ed. St and t abl es
gener al l y incl ude a t all y of all t rees i n a seri es of di amet er cl asses. The met hod basi call y
invol ves est i mat i ng t he biomass per aver age t r ee of each di amet er ( di amet er at breast
hei ght , dbh) cl ass of t he st and t abl e, mul ti pl yi ng by t he number of t rees i n the cl ass, and
summi ng across all cl asses. The mi d- point di amet er of t he cl ass can be used
24
in
combi nat ion wi t h an allomet ri c biomass r egressi on equat ion. Gui dance on choi ce of
equat ion and appli cat i on of equat i ons i s wi del y avai l abl e ( for exampl e see sources in Box
2. 3.8) . For t he open-ended l argest di amet er cl asses i t i s not obvious what di amet er t o
assi gn to t hat cl ass. Somet i mes addi ti onal informat ion i s i ncluded t hat all ows educat ed
est i mat es t o be made, but t hi s i s oft en not t he case. The defaul t assumpt ion should be
t o assume t he same wi dt h of t he di amet er cl ass and t ake t he mi dpoint , for exampl e i f
t he hi ghest cl ass i s > 110 cm and t he ot her cl ass are i n 10 cm bands, t hen t he mi dpoi nt
t o appl y t o t he highest cl ass shoul d be 115 cm.
I t i s i mport ant t hat t he di amet er cl asses are not overl y l arge so as t o decr ease how
represent at i ve t he aver age t r ee bi omass i s for t hat cl ass. Gener all y t he rul e shoul d be
t hat t he wi dt h of di amet er cl asses shoul d not exceed 15 cm.
Somet i mes, t he st and t abl es onl y incl ude t rees wi t h a mi ni mum di amet er of 30 cm or
more, whi ch essent i all y i gnores a si gni fi cant amount of carbon part i cul arl y for younger
forest s or heavil y logged. To overcome t he probl em of such incompl et e st and t abl es, an
approach has been developed for est i mat i ng the number of t rees i n small er di amet er


24
I f informat ion on t he basal area of all t he t rees in each diamet er class is provided, inst ead of
using t he mid point of t he diamet er class t he quadrat ic mean diamet er ( QMD) can be used
inst ead—t his is t he diamet er of t he t ree wit h t he average basal area ( = basal area of t rees in
class/ # t rees) .
2- 58
cl asses based on number of t rees in l arger cl asses
25
. I t i s recommended t hat t he met hod
descri bed here ( Box 2.2.6) be used for est i mat ing t he number of t rees i n one t o t wo
small cl asses onl y t o compl et e a st and t abl e t o a mi ni mum di amet er of 10 cm.
Box 2. 3.6. Adding diamet er classes t o t runcated st and t ables

dbh cl ass 1= 30- 39 cm, and dbh cl ass 2= 40- 49 cm
Rat i o = 35.1/ 11.8 = 2.97
Therefore, t he number of t rees in the 20-29 cm cl ass i s: 2.97 x 35. 1 = 104.4
To cal cul at e t he 10- 19 cm cl ass: 104.4/ 35.1 = 2.97,
2.97 x 104.4 = 310.6

The met hod i s based on t he concept t hat uneven- aged forest st ands have a
char act eri st i c "inverse J- shaped" di amet er di st r ibuti on. These di st ri butions have a l arge
number of t rees i n t he small cl asses and graduall y decreasi ng numbers in medium t o
l arge cl asses. The best met hod i s t he one t hat est i mat ed t he number of t rees in t he
mi ssi ng small est cl ass as t he rat io of t he number of t rees i n dbh cl ass 1 ( t he smal l est
report ed cl ass) t o t he number in dbh cl ass 2 ( t he next smal l est cl ass) t i mes t he number
in dbh cl ass 1 ( demonst rat ed i n Box 2.3.3 t o 2.3.6) .
St ock t ables—a t abl e of t he mer chant abl e volume i s somet i mes avai l abl e, oft en by
di amet er cl ass or t ot al per hect are. I f st and t abl es are not avail abl e, i t i s li kel y t hat
vol ume dat a are avail abl e if a forest r y i nvent ory has been conduct ed somewher e i n t he
count ry. I n many cases vol umes gi ven will be of j ust commer ci al speci es. I f t hi s i s t he
case t hen t hese dat a can not be used for est i mat i ng carbon st ocks, as a l arge and
unknown proport ion of t ot al volume and t herefore t ot al biomass i s excluded.
Bi omass densi t y can be cal cul at ed from vol ume over bark of mer chant abl e growing st ock
wood ( VOB) by "expandi ng" t hi s val ue t o t ake i nt o account t he biomass of t he ot her
aboveground component s—t hi s i s referred t o as t he bi omass conver sion and expansi on
fact or ( BCEF) . When using t hi s approach and defaul t values of t he BCEF provi ded i n t he
I PCC AFOLU, i t i s i mport ant t hat t he defi ni ti ons of VOB mat ch. The val ues of BCEF for
t ropi cal forest s i n t he AFOLU report are based on a defini tion of VOB as follows:
I nvent ori ed volume over bark of free bol e, i .e. from st ump or but t ress t o crown point or
fi rst mai n branch. I nvent ori ed vol ume must include all t rees, whet her present l y
commerci al or not , wi t h a mi ni mum di amet er of 10 cm at breast hei ght or above
but t ress i f thi s i s hi gher.


25
Gillespie AJR, Brown S, Lugo AE ( 1992) Tropical f orest biomass est imat ion f rom t runcat ed st and
t ables. Forest Ecology and Management 48: 69- 88.
2- 59
Aboveground biomass ( t / ha) i s t hen est i mat ed as fol lows: = VOB * BCEF
26

where:
BCEF t / m³ = biomass conversi on and expansi on fact or ( rat io of aboveground oven- dry
bi omass of t rees [ t / ha] t o merchant abl e growi ng st ock vol ume over bark [ m³ / ha] ) .
Values of t he BCEF are gi ven in Tabl e 4. 5 of t he I PCC AFOLU, and t hose rel evant t o
t ropi cal humi d broadl eaf and pi ne forest s are shown in t he Tabl e 2.3.4.
Table 2.3.4. Val ues of BCEF (average and range) for appli cat i on to volume dat a.
( Modifi ed from Tabl e 4. 5 in I PCC AFOLU)
Growing st ock volume –range ( VOB, m³ / ha)
Forest t ype
< 20 21- 40 41- 60 61 - 80 80- 12 0 120- 200 > 200
Nat ural
broadl eaf
4.0
2.5- 12.0
2.8
1.8- 304
2.1
1.2- 2.5
1.7
1.2- 2.2
1.5
1.0- 1.8
1.3
0.9- 1.6
1.0
0.7- 1.1
Conif er
1.8
1.4- 2.4
1.3
1.0- 1.5
1.0
0.8- 1.2
0.8
0.7- 1.2
0.8
0.6- 1.0
0.7
1.6- 0.9
0.7
0.6- 0.9

I n cases where t he defi ni tion of VOB does not mat ch exact l y t he defi ni ti on gi ven above,
a range of BCEF val ues are gi ven:
 I f t he defi niti on of VOB al so includes st em t ops and l arge br anches t hen t he l ower
bound of t he range for a gi ven growi ng st ock shoul d be used
 I f t he def i ni t ion of VOB has a l arge mi ni mum t op di amet er or t he VOB i s
compri sed of t rees wi t h part i cul arl y high basi c wood densi t y t hen t he upper bound
of the range shoul d be used
Forest i nvent ori es oft en report volumes t o a mini mum di amet er great er t han 10 cm.
These i nvent ori es may be t he onl y ones avail abl e. To all ow t he i nclusion of t hese
invent ori es, vol ume expansi on fact ors ( VEF) wer e developed. Aft er 10 cm, common
mini mum di amet er s for invent ori ed volumes r ange bet ween 25 and 30 cm. Due t o hi gh
uncert ai nt y i n ext rapol at ing invent ori ed volume based on a mi ni mum di amet er of l arger
t han 30 cm, i nvent ori es wi t h a mini mum di amet er t hat i s hi gher t han 30 cm should not
be used. Vol ume expansi on fact ors r ange from about 1.1 t o 2.5, and are rel at ed t o t he
VOB30 as follows t o allow conversi on of VOB30 t o a VOB10 equi val ent :
VEF = Exp{ 1.300 - 0.209* Ln( VOB30) } for VOB30 < 250 m3/ ha
= 1.13 for VOB30 > 250 m3/ ha
See Box 2.3.7 for a demonst rat ion of t he use of t he VEF correct i on f act or and BCEF t o
est i mat e biomass densi t y.


26
This met hod f rom t he I PCC AFOLU replaces t he one report ed in t he I PCC GPG. The GPG met hod
uses a slight ly dif f erent equat ion : AGB = VOB* wood densit y* BEF; where BEF, t he biomass
expansion f act or, is t he rat io of aboveground biomass t o biomass of t he merchant able volume in
t his case.
2- 60
Box 2.3 .7. Use of volume expansion factor ( VEF) and biomass conversion
and expansion fact or ( BCEF)
Tropi cal broadl eaf forest wi t h a VOB30 = 100 m³ / ha
Fi rst : Cal cul at e t he VEF
= Exp { 1.300 - 0.209* Ln(100)} = 1.40
Second: Cal cul at e VOB10
= 100 m³ / ha x 1.40 = 140 m³ / ha
Thi rd: Take t he BCEF from t he t abl e above
= Tropi cal hardwood wi th growi ng st ock of 140 m³ / ha = 1.3
Fourt h: Cal cul at e aboveground biomass densi t y
= 1.3 x 140
= 182 t / ha

Dat a from scient ific st udies
Sci enti fi c eval uati ons of biomass, vol ume or carbon st ock are conduct ed under mul ti pl e
mot i vat i ons t hat may or may not ali gn wi t h the st r at um- based approach requi red for
deforest at i on and degradat i on assessment s.
Sci enti fi c plot s may be used t o represent t he carbon st ock of a st r at um as long as t her e
are mul ti pl e pl ot s and t he plot s are r andoml y locat ed. Many sci enti fi c plot s wi ll be i n ol d
growt h forest and may provi de a good represent at i on of t hi s st rat um.
The accept abl e l evel of uncert ai nt y wi ll be defined i n t he poli ti cal arena, but quali t y of
resear ch dat a coul d be il lust rat ed by an uncert ai nt y l evel of 20% or l ess ( 95%
confidence equal t o 20% of t he mean or l ess) . I f t hi s l evel i s reached t hen t hese dat a
coul d be appli cabl e.
2.3 .5.2.3 St ep 3: Collect missing data
I t i s li kel y t hat even i f dat a exi st t hey will not cover al l st rat a so in al most all si t uat ions a
new measuri ng and moni toring pl an will need t o be desi gned and i mpl ement ed t o
achi eve a Ti er 2 l evel . Wi th careful pl anning t hi s need not be an overl y cost l y
proposi ti on.
The first st ep would be a deci sion on how many st rat a wi t h deforest at i on or degradat i on
in t he reference l evel are at ri sk of def orest at i on or degradat i on, but do not have
est i mat es of carbon st ock. These st r at a should then be t he focus of any fut ure
moni tori ng pl an. Many r esources are avai l abl e or becomi ng avai l abl e t o assi st count ri es
in pl anni ng and i mpl ement ing t he col l ecti on of new dat a t o enabl e t hem t o est i mat e
forest carbon st ocks wi t h high confi dence ( e. g. bil at eral and mul til at er al organi zat i ons,
FAO et c.) , sources of such informat i on and guidance i s gi ven in Box 2.3.8) .
2- 61
Box 2. 3.8. Guidance on collect ing new car bon st ock dat a
Many resources ar e avail abl e t o count ri es and organi zat i ons seeki ng t o conduct
carbon assessment s of l and use st rat a.
The Food and Agri cul t ure Organi zat i on of t he Uni t ed Nat i ons has been supporting
f orest i nvent ori es for more t han 50 year s—dat a f rom t hese invent ori es can be
convert ed t o C st ocks readil y using t he met hods gi ven above. However, i t woul d
be useful in t he i mpl ement at i on of new i nvent ories t hat t he act ual dbh be
measured and recorded for all t rees, rat her t han reporting onl y st and t abl es.
Appli cat i on of all omet ri c equat ions commonl y accept abl e i n carbon st udi es
27
t o
such dat a ( by pl ot s) woul d provi de est i mat es of carbon st ocks wi t h lower
uncert ai nt y t han est i mat es based on convert ing vol ume dat a as descri bed above.
The FAO Nat i onal Forest I nvent ory Fi el d Manual i s avail abl e at :
ht t p: / / www.fao.org/ docrep/ 008/ ae578e00.ht m
Speci fi c gui dance on fi el d measurement of carbon st ocks can be found in Chapt er
4.3 of GPG LULUCF and al so in t he World Bank Sourcebook for LULUCF ( avail abl e
at : ht t p: / / carbonfinance.org/ doc/ LULUCF_sourcebook_compressed.pdf )
Tool s t o gui de coll ect ion of new forest carbon st ock dat a ar e avail abl e at :
ht t p: / / www.winrock.org/ Ecosyst ems/ t ool s.asp?BU= 9086

Lacki ng in t he sources gi ven i n Box 2.3.9 i s gui dance on how to i mprove t he est i mat es of
t he t ot al i mpact s on forest carbon st ocks from degr adat i on, part i cul arl y from vari ous
int ensi ti es of sel ect i ve l ogging ( whet her l egal or ill egal ) . The AFOLU gui delines consi der
losses from t he act ual t rees l ogged, but does not include l osses from damage t o resi dual
t rees nor from t he const ruct ion of ski d t rail s, roads and logging decks; gai ns from
regrowt h are i ncluded but wi th li mit ed gui dance on how to appl y t he regrowt h fact ors.
An outline of t he st eps needed t o i mprove t he est i mat es of carbon losses from sel ect i ve
logging are descri bed i n Box 2.3.9.


27
E. g. Chave J et al. ( 2005) Tree allomet ry and improved est imat ion of carbon st ocks and balance
in t ropical f orest s. Oecol ogia 145: 87- 99.
2- 62

Box 2. 3.9. Est imat ing carbon gains and losses from logging
A model t hat i llust rat es t he f at e of l i ve biomass and subsequent CO
2
emi ssi ons
when a forest i s sel ect i vel y logged i s shown below.
Carbon dioxide
Roads, skid
Trails, decks


The t ot al annual carbon loss i s a funct i on of: (i ) t he ar ea logged in a gi ven year;
(i i ) t he amount of ti mber ext r act ed per uni t area per year; ( iii) t he amount of dead
wood produced i n a gi ven year ( from t ops and st ump of t he harvest ed t r ee,
mort ali t y of t he surrounding t rees caused by t he l ogging, and t ree mort ali t y from
t he ski d t rail s, roads, and l ogging decks) adj ust ed for decomposi ti on, and (i v) t he
bi omass t hat went i nt o long t erm st orage as wood product s
28
.
I n equat i on form, t he carbon i mpact of logging per uni t area per year can be
summed up as follows:
Eq. ( 1)
Thi s equat i on i s further descri bed as fol lows:
( 1)
ctor regrowthfa action timberextr gingdamage live s livebiomas
C C C C A + A + A = A
log ,

The change in bi omass C caused by loggi ng damage t o l i ve t rees ( t ops, st ump,
surrounding t rees, t rees kill ed from put ti ng in skid t rail s, roads, decks) and ti mber
ext ract ed reduces t he carbon st ock of li ve bi omass ( dat a whi ch are best coll ect ed
f rom act i ve l ogging concessi ons) . The regrowt h fact or or rat e account s f or a gai n i n


28
Brown S et al. ( 2000) I ssues and challenges f or forest - based carbon- of f set proj ect s: a case
st udy of t he Noel Kempf f Climat e Act ion Proj ect in Bolivia. Mit igat ion and Adapt at ion St rat egi es f or
Cl imat e Change 5: 99-121.
Brown S et al. ( 2005) Deliverable 6: I mpact of logging on carbon st ocks of f orest s: Republic of
Congo as a case st udy. Report submit t ed t o t he US Agency f or I nt ernat ional Development ;
Cooperat ive Agreement No. EEM-A- 00- 03-00006- 00.
C Impact
ts woodproduc s deadbiomas s livebiomas
C C C A + A + A =
2- 63
carbon resul ting from t he regener at i on of new t rees t o fil l t he gap and pot enti al
enhanced growt h of resi dual t rees. The regrowt h rat e can onl y be appl i ed t o t he
ar ea of gaps and a rel at i vel y narrow zone ext endi ng int o t he forest around t he gap
t hat woul d l ikel y benefi t from addi ti onal l ight and not t o the t ot al area under
l ogging. The quanti ti es in (1) above can be expressed on an area basi s (i .e., t
C/ ha) or on a m
3
of ext ract ed t i mber per ha.
(2) tor ositionFac WoodDecomp C C
gingdamage dead s deadbiomas
× A = A
log ,

I n areas undergoing sel ect i ve l ogging, dead wood cannot be i gnored because
l ogging i ncreases t he si ze of t hi s pool . The change i n t he dead wood pool should
be est i mat ed t o account for decomposi t ion t hat occurs over t i me. Resear ch has
shown t hat dead wood decomposes rel at i vel y slowl y in t ropi cal forest s and hence
t hi s pool has a l ong t urnover t i me. The damaged wood i s assumed t o ent er t he
dead wood pool , where i t st art s t o decompose, and each year more dead wood i s
added from harvest i ng, but each year some i s l ost because of decomposi ti on and
resul ti ng emi ssi ons of carbon. Decomposi ti on of dead wood i s model ed as a si mpl e
exponent i al function based on mass of dead wood and a decomposi ti on coeffi ci ent
( proportion decomposed per year t hat can range from about < 0.05 t o 0.15 per
year) .
( 3)
ts woodproduc action timberextr ts woodproduc
proportion C C × A = A
Not all of the decr ease i n li ve bi omass due t o l oggi ng i s emi t t ed t o t he at mosphere
as a carbon emi ssi on because a rel at i vel y l arge fract i on of t he harvest ed wood
goes int o long t erm wood product s. However, even wood product s are not a
permanent st orage of carbon—some of i t goes int o product s t hat have short li ves
( some paper product s) , some t urns over very slowl y ( e.g., const ruct ion ti mber and
f urni ture), but all i s event uall y di sposed of by burni ng, decomposi ti on or buri ed i n
l andfi lls.
Tot al emi ssions are t hen est i mat ed as t he product of t ot al change in carbon st ocks
( from Eq.1) , t he t i mber ext r act i on rat e and t he t ot al area l ogged.
Creat ing a nat ional look- up t able
A cost - effect i ve met hod for Approach A and Approach B st rat i fi cat i ons may be t o creat e
a “ nat i onal look- up t abl e” for t he count ry t hat wi ll det ail the carbon st ock i n each
sel ect ed pool in each st rat um. Look- up t abl es should i deal l y be updat ed peri odi call y ( e.g.
each commi t ment period) to account for changing mean bi omass st ocks due t o shi ft s in
age di st ri buti ons, cli mat e, and or di st urbance regi mes. The l ook up t abl e can t hen be
used t hrough ti me t o det ail the pre- deforest at i on or degradat i on st ocks and est i mat ed
st ocks aft er def orest at i on and degradat i on. An exampl e i s gi ven in Box 2.3.10.
2- 64

Box 2. 3.10. A nat ional look up t able for deforest at ion and degradat ion
The following i s a hypot heti cal look- up t abl e for use wi t h approach A or approach B
st r at i fi cat i on. We can assume t hat remot e sensing anal ysi s reveal s t hat 800 ha of
l owl and forest wer e deforest ed t o shi fting agri cul ture and 500 ha of mont ane f orest
wer e degr aded. Using t he nat i onal l ook- up t abl e resul t s in t he foll owing:
The loss for deforest at i on woul d be
154 t C/ ha – 37 t C/ ha = 117 t C/ ha x 800 ha = 93,600 t C.
The loss for the degradat i on woul d be
130 t C/ ha – 92 t C/ ha = 38 t C/ ha x 500 ha = 19,000 t C
( Not e t hat degr adat i on will oft en have been caused by harvest and t herefore
emi ssi ons wi ll be decreased if st orage in long- t erm wood product s, rat her t han by
f uel wood ext ract i on, was i ncluded—t hat i s t he harvest ed wood did not ent er t he
at mospher e.)



2- 65
2. 3. 6 ESTI MATI ON OF SOI L CARBON STOCKS
Davi d Shoch, The Nat ure Conservancy, USA
Sandra Brown, Winrock I nt ernat i onal , USA
Fl ori an Si egert , Uni versi t ry of Muni ch, Germany
Hans Joost en, Wet l ands I nt ernat i onal , The Net herl ands
2.3 .6.1 Scope of chapt er
Chapt er 2.3 .6 present s guidance on t he est imat ion of t he organic carbon
component of soil of the forest s being deforest ed and degraded. Guidance is
provided on: ( i) which of the three I PCC Tiers should be used, ( ii ) pot ent ial
met hods for t he st rat ificat ion by Carbon Stock of a country’s forest s and ( iii )
act ual Est imat ion of Carbon Stocks of Forest s Undergoing Change.
I PCC AFOLU di vides soi l carbon i nto t hree pool s: mi neral soil organi c carbon, organi c soil
carbon, and mineral soil inorgani c carbon. The f ocus in thi s sect i on wi ll be on onl y t he
organi c carbon component of soil.
I n Section 2.3.6.2 expl anat i on i s provi ded on I PCC Ti ers for soi l carbon est i mat es.
I n Sect ion 2.3 .6.3 the focus i s on how t o gener at e a good Ti er 2 anal ysi s for soil
carbon.
I n Sect ion 2.3.6 .4 gui dance i s gi ven on t he est i mat i on of emi ssions as a resul t of l and
use change in peat swamp forest s.
2.3 .6.2 Explanat ion of I PCC Tier s for soil carbon est imat es
For est i mat i ng emi ssi ons from organi c carbon i n mi neral soils, t he I PCC AFOLU
recommends t he st ock change approach but for organi c carbon in organi c soil s such as
peat s, an emi ssion fact or approach i s used ( Tabl e 2.3.6.4) . For mineral soi l organi c
carbon, depart ures in carbon st ocks from a r eference or base condi t ion are cal cul at ed by
appl yi ng st ock change f act ors ( speci fi c to l and-use, management pract i ces, and input s
[ e. g. soi l amendment , i rri gat ion, et c.] ) , equal t o t he carbon st ock i n t he al t ered condi tion
as a proportion of t he reference carbon st ock. Ti er 1 assumes t hat a change t o a new
equi librium st ock occurs at a const ant rat e over a 20 year t i me period. Ti ers 2 and 3
may var y t hese assumpt i ons, i n t erms of t he l engt h of t i me over whi ch change t akes
pl ace, and i n t erms of how annual rat es vary wi t hi n t hat period. Ti er 1 assumes t hat t he
maxi mum dept h beyond whi ch change i n soil carbon st ocks should not occur i s 30 cm;
Ti ers 2 and 3 may l ower t hi s t hreshol d t o a great er dept h.
Ti er 1 further assumes t hat t here i s no change i n mineral soil carbon i n forest s remai ning
forest s. Hence, est i mat es of t he changes i n mineral soi l carbon coul d be made for
deforest at i on but ar e not needed for degr adat i on. Ti ers 2 and 3 allow t hi s assumpt i on t o
change. I n t he case of degradat i on, t he Ti er 2 and 3 approaches are onl y recommended
for int ensi ve pract i ces t hat invol ve si gnifi cant soi l di st urbance, not t ypi call y encount ered
in sel ect i ve l ogging. I n cont rast , sel ect i ve l ogging of forest s growi ng on organi c carbon
soi l s such as t he peat - swamp forest s of South East Asi a coul d resul t i n l arge emi ssi ons
caused by pract i ces such as drai ning t o remove t he logs from t he forest ( see Sect ion
2. 3.6.4 for furt her det ail s on t hi s t opi c).

2- 66
Table 2.3.5. I PCC guidelines on dat a and/ or anal yt i cal needs for t he di fferent Ti ers for
soi l carbon changes i n deforest ed areas.
Soil carbon
pool
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3
Organi c
carbon i n
mi neral soil
Def aul t reference
C st ocks and st ock
change f act ors
from I PCC
Count ry- speci fi c dat a on
refer ence C st ocks &
st ock change fact ors
Vali dat ed model
compl ement ed by
measures, or di rect
measures of st ock
change t hrough
moni toring
net works
Organi c
carbon i n
organi c soil
Def aul t emi ssion
fact or from I PCC
Count ry- speci fi c dat a on
emi ssi on fact ors
Vali dat ed model
compl ement ed by
measures, or di rect
measures of st ock
change

Vari abil it y i n soi l carbon st ocks can be l arge; Ti er 1 reference st ock est i mat es have
associ at ed uncert ai nt y of up t o + / - 90%. Therefore i t i s cl ear t hat i f soi l i s a key
cat egory, Ti er 1 est i mat es shoul d be avoi ded.
2.3 .6.3 When and how t o generat e a good Tier 2 analysis for soil carbon
Modifying Ti er 1 assumpt i ons and repl aci ng def aul t reference st ock and st ock change
est i mat es wi t h count ry- speci fi c val ues t hrough Ti er 2 met hods i s recommended t o
reduce uncert ai nt y for si gni fi cant sources. Ti er 2 provi des t he opt i on of using a
combi nat ion of count ry- speci fi c dat a and I PCC def aul t val ues t hat all ows a count ry t o
more effi ci entl y all ocat e i t s l i mi t ed resources in the devel opment of GHG invent ori es.
How can one deci de i f l oss of soil C during deforest at i on i s a si gni fi cant source? I t i s
recommended t hat , where emi ssi ons from soi l carbon are li kel y t o represent a key
subcat egory of over all emi ssions f rom deforest at i on—t hat i s > 25- 30%, t he emi ssi ons
accounti ng shoul d move from Ti er 1 t o Ti er 2. Gener al l y speaki ng, where ref erence soil
carbon st ocks equal or exceed aboveground bi omass carbon, carbon emi ssi ons from soil
of t en exceed 25% of tot al emi ssi ons from deforest at i on upon conversi on to cropl and,
and consi derat i on shoul d be gi ven t o appl yi ng a Ti er 2 approach t o est i mat i ng emi ssi ons
from soil carbon. I f deforest at i on in an area commonl y convert s forest s t o ot her l and
uses such as past ure or ot her perenni al crops, t hen t he loss of soil carbon and resul ting
emi ssi ons i s unli kel y t o reach 25%, and t hus a Ti er 1 approach woul d suffi ce.
Assessment s of opportuni ti es t o i mprove on Tier 1 assumpt i ons wi t h a Ti er 2 approach
are summari zed i n Tabl e 2. 3.6.
2- 67

Table 2.3.6. Opportuni ti es t o i mprove on Ti er 1 assumpt i ons usi ng a Ti er 2 approach.

Tier 1
assumpt ions
Tier 2 opt ions Recommendat ion
Dept h t o
whi ch change
in st ock i s
report ed
30 cm
May report changes t o
deeper dept hs
Not recommended. There i s
sel dom any benefi t i n sampl ing
t o deeper dept hs for t ropi cal
forest soil s because i mpact s of
l and conversion and
management on soil carbon t end
t o di mini sh wi t h dept h - most
change t akes pl ace i n t he t op
25-30 cm.
Ti me until new
equi librium
st ock i s
reached
20 year s
May var y t he l engt h of
t i me until new
equilibri um i s
achi eved, ref erenci ng
count ry- speci fi c
chronosequences or
long- t erm st udi es
Recommended where a
chronosequence
29
or l ong- t erm
st udy dat a are avail abl e. Some
soi l s may r each equil ibri um in as
li t tl e as 5- 10 year s aft er
conversi on, part i cul arl y in t he
humi d t ropi cs
30
.
Rat e of
change i n
st ock
Li near
May use non-linear
model s
Not recommended – best
model ed wi t h Ti er 3- t ype
approaches. As well , a t ypi cal 5-
year r eporti ng i nt erval
effect i vel y “l ineari zes” a non-
li near model and would undo the
benefi t s of a model wi th finer
resolut i on of varyi ng annual
changes.
Reference
st ocks
I PCC defaul t s
Devel op count ry-
speci fi c reference
st ocks consul ting ot her
avail abl e dat abases or
consol idat ing count ry
soil dat a from exi st i ng
sources ( uni versi ti es,
agri cul tural ext ensi on
servi ces, et c.) .
I PCC defaul t s comprehensi ve.
Not recommended unl ess
count ry-speci fi c dat a are
avail abl e.
St ock change
fact ors
I PCC defaul t s
Devel op count ry-
speci fi c st ock change
fact ors from
chronosequence or
long- t erm st udy.
I PCC defaul t s fairl y
comprehensi ve. Not
recommended unl ess si gni fi cant
ar eas ( t hat can be deli neat ed
spat i all y) are represent ed by
drai nage as a t ypi cal conversi on
pract i ce.

The I PCC def aul t val ues for refer ence soil carbon st ocks and st ock change f act ors ar e
comprehensi ve and refl ect t he most r ecent revi ew of changes in soil carbon wi t h


29
A chronosequence is a series on land unit s t hat represent a range of ages af t er some event –
t hey are of t en used t o subst it ut e t ime wit h space, e. g. a series of cropf ield of various ages since
t hey were clear ed f rom f orest s ( making sure t hey ar e on same soil t ype, slope, et c. ).
30
Det wiler RP ( 1986) Land use change and t he global carbon cycle: t he role of t ropical soils.
Bi ogeochemist ry 31: 1- 14.
2- 68
conversi on of nat i ve soi l s. Reference st ocks and st ock change f act ors r epresent aver age
condi ti ons globall y, whi ch means t hat , i n at l east hal f of t he cases, use of a more
accur at e and preci se ( hi gher Ti er) approach wil l not produce a hi gher est i mat e of st ocks
or emi ssi ons t han t he Ti er 1 defaul t s wi t h respect t o t he cat egori es cover ed.
Where count ry- speci fi c dat a are avail abl e from exi st i ng sources, Ti er 2 reference st ocks
should be const ruct ed t o repl ace I PCC def aul t val ues. Measurement s or est i mat es of soil
carbon can be acquired t hrough consul t at i ons wi t h local uni versi ti es, agri cul t ural
depart ment s or ext ension agenci es, all of whi ch oft en carry out soi l surveyi ng at scal es
sui t ed t o deri ving nat i onal or regional l evel est i mat es. I t shoul d be acknowl edged
however t hat because agri cul tural ext ension work i s t arget ed t o al t ered ( cul ti vat ed)
si t es, agri cul t ural ext ension agenci es may have compar at i vel y l i t tl e informat i on gat hered
on reference soil s under nat i ve veget at ion. Where dat a on ref erence si t es are avail abl e,
i t would be advant ageous i f t he soil carbon measurement s wer e geo- refer enced. Soil
carbon dat a gener at ed t hrough t ypi cal agri cult ural ext ensi on work i s oft en li mit ed t o
carbon concent rat i ons (i .e. percent carbon) only, and for t hi s informat i on t o be usabl e,
carbon concent rat ions must be pai red wi t h soi l bul k densi t y ( mass per uni t vol ume) ,
vol ume of fragment s > 2 mm, and dept h sampl ed t o deri ve a mass C per uni t area of
l and surface ( see Ch. 4.3 of the I PCC GPG report for more det ai l s about soil sampl es) .
A soil carbon map i s al so avai l abl e from t he US Depart ment of Agri cul ture, Nat ural
Resources Conservat i on Servi ce ( Fi gure 2.3.4) . Thi s 0.5 degree resol ution map i s based
on a recl assi fi cat ion of t he FAO- UNESCO Soil Map of t he Worl d combined wi t h a soil
cli mat e map. Thi s map shows li t tl e vari at i on for soil C in t he t ropi cs wi t h most ar eas
showing a range in soi l carbon of 40-80 t C/ ha ( 4- 8 Kg C/ m
2
) . The soil organi c carbon
map shows t he di st ri bution of the soil organic carbon t o 30 cm dept h, and can be
downl oaded from: ftp://www.daac.ornl.gov/data/global_soil/IsricWiseGrids/
Figure 2 .3.4. Soil organi c carbon map ( kg/ m
2
or x10 t / ha; t o 30 cm dept h and 0.5°
resoluti on) from t he gl obal map produced by t he USDA Nat ural Resources Conservat i on
Servi ce.


A new soil map has been recent l y produced under t he coordinat ion of FAO and I I ASA.
The map, whi ch was r el eased i n March 2009, i s referred t o as t he Harmoni zed Worl d Soil
2- 69
Dat abase v. 1. 1
31
. The map i s at 1 km resol ut ion and i s reli abl e for Lat i n Ameri ca,
Cent ral and Sout hern Afri ca, but uses ol d maps for West Afri ca and Sout h Asi a. I t
cont ai ns many soil at t ri but es includi ng soil carbon t o 30 cm dept h.
Exi st ing map sources can be useful t o count ri es for developi ng est i mat es for t he
refer ence l evel and for assi st i ng in det ermi ning whet her changes i n soil carbon st ocks
aft er deforest at i on woul d be a key cat egory or not . Deforest at i on coul d emi t up t o 30-
40% of t he carbon st ock i n t he t op 30 cm of soil during t he first 5 years or so aft er
cl eari ng in t he humi d t ropi cs. Using t he soil map above and assumi ng the soil C cont ent
t o 30 cm i s 80 t C/ ha, a 40% emi ssion rat e would resul t in 32 t C/ ha being emi t t ed in
t he fi rst 5 year s. I f t he carbon st ock of t he forest veget at i on was 120 t C/ ha ( not
unreasonabl e) , t hen t he emi ssi on of 32 t C/ ha is more t han 25% of t he C st ock i n forest
veget at i on and coul d be consi dered a si gnifi cant emi ssi ons source.
There ar e t wo fact ors not incl uded i n the I PCC def aul t s t hat can pot enti all y i nfl uence
carbon st ock changes i n soi l s: soil t ext ure and soil moi st ure. Soil t ext ure has an
acknowl edged effect on soi l organi c carbon st ocks, wi t h coarse sandy soil s ( e.g.
Spodosol s) havi ng lower carbon st ocks i n general t han finer t ext ure soil s such as loams
or cl ayey soi l s. Thus t he t ext ure of t he soil i s a useful indi cat or t o det ermi ne t he li kel y
quant i t y of carbon i n the soil and t he li kel y amount emi t t ed as CO
2
upon conversion. A
gl obal dat a set on soi l t ext ure i s avai l abl e for free downloadi ng and coul d be used as an
indi cat or of t he l i kel y soil carbon cont ent
32
. Speci fi call y, soil carbon in coarse sandy
soi l s, wi t h l ess capaci t y for soi l organi c mat t er ret ent ion, i s expect ed t o oxi di ze mor e
rapi dl y and possi bl y to a great er degree t han i n finer soil s. However, because coarser
soi l s al so t end t o have lower ini ti al ( reference) soil carbon st ocks, conver sion of t hese
soi l s i s unli kel y t o be a si gnifi cant source of emi ssions and t herefore development of a
soi l t ext ure- speci fi c st ock change f act or i s not recommended for t hese soil s.
Drai nage of a previousl y i nundat ed mi neral soil increases decomposi ti on of soil organi c
mat t er, j ust as i t does i n organi c soil s, and unli ke t he effect of soi l t ext ure, i s li kel y t o be
associ at ed wi t h high reference soil carbon st ocks. These are ref l ect ed in t he I PCC defaul t
refer ence st ocks for forest s growi ng on wet l and soil s, such as floodpl ai n forest s.
Drai nage of forest ed wet l and soil s i n combi nat i on wi th deforest at i on can t hus represent a
si gni fi cant source of emi ssi ons. Because t hi s fact or i s l acki ng from t he I PCC defaul t st ock
change f act ors, i t s effect s woul d not be di scerned usi ng a Ti er 1 approach. I n ot her
words, I PCC defaul t st ock change f act ors woul d underest i mat e soi l carbon emi ssi ons
where deforest at i on foll owed by dr ai nage of previ ousl y i nundat ed soil s occurred. Wher e
drai nage pract i ces on wet l and soils are represent at i ve of nat i onal t rends and si gnifi cant
areas, and for whi ch spat i al dat a are avai l abl e, t he Ti er 2 approach of deri vi ng a new,
count ry- speci fi c st ock change f act or from chronosequences or l ong- t erm st udi es i s
recommended.
Fi el d measurement s can be used t o const ruct chronosequences t hat repr esent changes
in l and cover and use, management or carbon input s, from whi ch new st ock change
fact ors can be cal cul at ed, and many sources of met hods ar e avail abl e ( see Box 2.2.8) .
Al t ernat i vel y, st ock change f act ors can be deri ved from long- t erm st udi es t hat repor t
measurement s coll ect ed repeat edl y over t i me at si t es where l and- use conver si on has
occurred. I deall y, mul ti pl e pai red compari sons or long- t erm st udi es woul d be done over
a geographi c range compar abl e t o t hat over which a r esul ting st ock change f act or wi ll be
appl i ed, t hough they do not requi re represent at i ve sampling as i n the development of
aver age ref erence st ock val ues.


31
FAO/ I I ASA/ I SRI C/ I SS-CAS/ JRC ( 2009) Har monized World Soil Dat abase ( ver sion 1. 1) . FAO,
Rome, I t aly and I I ASA, Laxenburg, Aust ria. available at :
www. iiasa. ac. at / Research/ LUC/ luc07/ Ext ernal-World-soil- dat abase/ HWSD_Document at ion. pdf
32
Webb RW, Rosenzweig CE, Levine ER ( 2000) Global Soil Text ure and Derived Wat er- Holding
Capacit ies. Dat a set Available on- line [ ht t p: / / www. daac. ornl. gov] f rom Oak Ridge Nat ional
Laborat ory Dist ribut ed Act ive Archive Cent er, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U. S.A. .
2- 70
2.3 .6.4 Emissions as a result of land use change in peat swamp forest s
Deforest at i on of peat swamp forest s ( on organi c soil s) represent s a speci al case and
gui dance i s gi ven i n t hi s sect ion.
Tropi cal peat swamp f orest s occupy about 10% of the gl obal peat l and ar ea,
approxi mat el y 65% of t he gl obal area of t ropi cal peat swamp forest s occur i n Southeast
Asi a ( Figure 2.3.5) . Peat i s a dead organi c mat t er occurring l argel y i n poorl y drai ning
envi ronment s. I t forms at all al ti tudes and cl i mat es. I n t he t ropi cs, peat i s l argel y formed
from t ree and root remnant s and deposi t s accumul at e t o dept hs up t o 20 met ers. I f a
t ropi cal peat deposi t i s 10 met ers t hi ck i t cont ai ns over 5,000 t / ha carbon, more t han
25- fol d more t han t hat of t he forest bi omass growi ng above ground. Sequest rat i on
resul t s when t he rat e of phot osynt hesi s is l arger t han decomposi ti on. Carbon
sequest r at i on range on average from 0.12-0.74 t C/ ha/ yr. Compar ed t o boreal
peat l ands, t he t ropi cal rat e i s up t o 4 t i mes hi gher. I f t ropi cal peat i s drai ned for
agri cul ture or pl ant at i ons i t qui ckl y decomposes, resul ting in l arge emi ssions of CO
2
and
N
2
O t o t he at mospher e.
A global map indi cat i ng peat i s avail abl e from FAO ( FAO- UNESCO Soil Map of t he Worl d) .
Wet l ands I nt ernat ional has publ i shed det ai l ed maps on t he di st ri but ion of peat swamp
forest s and t he quant i t y of carbon st ored i n t he peat for Sumat r a, Kali mant an and West
Papua based on maps, l and surveys and sat ell i te i mager y
33
.
Figure 2 .3.5. Ext ent of lowl and peat forest s in Sout heast Asi a. The Wet l ands
I nt ernat ional dat a have hi gher spat i al det ail and hence accuracy t han t he FAO dat a.


Emi ssions fact ors ( EF) for cal cul ati ng carbon emi ssi ons from peat swamp forest s for
REDD+ at a Ti er 2 or 3 l evel requi res si t e- speci fi c dat a; a recent lit erat ure revi ew
quest i ons t he accuracy and usefulness of exi st ing Ti er 1 EF for operat i onal use. Long
t erm measurement s or well est abl i shed proxi es will need t o be put i n pl ace t o support
Ti er 2 and 3 met hodologi es. Count ri es wi t h signifi cant peat swamp forest wi ll need t o
devel op domest i c dat a t o est i mat e and report t he CO
2
and non- CO
2
emi ssi ons resul ting
from l and use and l and use changes.


33
Wet lands I nt er nat ional ( 2007). ht t p: / / www. wet lands. or. id/ publicat ions_maps. php
2- 71
I n t he past t wo decades l arge ar eas of peat swamp forest s i n Sout heast Asi a have been
dest royed by l ogging, drainage and fire. Compar ed t o t he aboveground emi ssions t hat
resul t from cl earing t he forest veget at i on, emi ssi ons from peat are si gni fi cantl y l arger i n
case of drai nage and fi re and cont i nue t hrough t i me because dr ai nage causes a loweri ng
of t he wat er t abl e, all owing biologi cal oxi dat ion of t he peat ( Fi gure 2.3. 6) . Bot h
processes cause si gnifi cant emi ssi ons of GHG gases. Al t hough t he area of t ropi cal
peat l ands i n I ndonesi a i s onl y about 1.5% t hat of t he global l and surface, uncont rolled
burni ng of peat t her e i n 1997 emi t t ed 2,0- 3,5 Gt CO
2
equi val ent t o some 10% of global
fossil fuel emi ssi ons for the same year
34
. Emi ssi on est i mat es from peat fi res requi re
Ti er3 and currentl y have great uncert ai nti es, because:
 Various gases and compounds and rel at i ve fract i ons of t hese wil l be emi t t ed
dependi ng on fi re severi t y, wat er t abl e, peat moi st ure and peat t ype
 The combust ed peat volume depends on wat er t abl e l evel and peat moi st ure
 Fi re int ensi t y and burn dept h depend on l and cover t ype and previ ous fi re hi st ory.
Figure 2 .3.6. Rel at ion bet ween drai nage dept h and CO
2
emi ssi ons from peat
decomposi t ion in t ropi cal peat swamps
35
.
Rat e of subsi dence i n rel at i on to mean annual wat er l evel below surf ace Hori zont al bars
indi cat e st andard devi at i on in wat er t abl e ( where avail abl e) . Open ci rcl es denot e unused,
drai ned forest ed si t es. Land use: (□) agriculture, (●) oil palm (recorded 13 to 16 or 18 to
21 years aft er drai nage), (●) degraded open land in the Ex Mega Rice Project area,
recorded ~ 10 t o ~ 12 years aft er drai nage, ( ○) drai ned forest ed pl ot s, recorded ~ 10 t o
12 years aft er drai nage.


The I PCC gui delines provi de l i mi t ed gui dance for est i mat i ng GHG emi ssi ons from peat
fi res because peat f i res ar e di ffer ent from forest fi res due t o oxygen li mi t at i on and t he


34
Page SE, Siegert F, Rieley JO, Boehm HDV, Jayak A, Limin S ( 2002) The amount of carbon
released f rom peat and forest f ires in I ndonesia during 1997. Nat ure. 420: 61- 65.
van der Werf GR, et al. ( 2004) . Cont inent al-Scale Part it ioning of Fire Emissions During t he 1997 t o
2001 El Niño/ La Niña Period. Science. 303: 73 - 76
35
Couwenberg J, Dommain R, Joost en H ( 2009) Greenhouse gas f luxes f rom t r opical peat lands in
Sout heast Asia. Global Change Biology, in press
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-120 -100 -80 -60 -20 0
s
u
b
s
i
d
e
n
c
e

[
c
m

a
-
1
]

0
a
s
s
u
m
e
d

e
m
i
s
s
i
o
n

[
t

C
O
2

h
a
-
1

a
-
1
]
8
9
10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-40
drainage depth [cm]
2- 72
smol dering nat ure of combust ion. Burn hi st ory and l and cover can qui t e easil y be
measured by sensors on sat el lit es, but burn dept h assessment requi res fi el d and/ or
LI DAR measurement s and t he det er minat i on of gas composi t i on requi res l aborat ory
combust i on experi ment s and fi el d measurement s. The dept h of the wat er t abl e and
moi st ure cont ent ar e key vari abl es t hat cont rol bot h decomposi tion and fire ri sk and t o
accur at e measurement s ar e needed ( e.g. using di p wel l s) t o est i mat e emi ssions.
Emi ssions of CO
2
vi a oxi dat i on begin when ei t her t he peat swamp f orest i s removed
and/ or t he wat er t abl e i s lowered due t o drai nage for agri cul t ure or logging purposes.
Most carbon i s rel eased i n t he form of CO
2
in an aerobi c l ayer near t he surface by
decomposi t ion. Sui t abl e long t erm measurement s of at l east a year ar e requi red t o
assess emi ssion rat es under diff eri ng wat er management regi mes. Very f ew such
measures exi st t oday. Couwenberg et al . ( 2009) showed t hat cl eared and dr ai ned peat
swamp forest s emi t in t he range of 9 CO
2
t / ha/ yr f or each 10 cm of addi ti onal drainage
dept h. I f t he wat er t abl e i s lowered by of 0.4 met ers by drai ning, CO
2
emi ssi ons ar e
est i mat ed at 35 t ons CO
2
per hect are per year ( Figure 2.3.6) .
Two i mport ant non- CO
2
greenhouse gases produced by organi c mat t er decomposi tion
are met hane CH4 and ni t rous oxi de N
2
O wi th t he l at t er more i mport ant due t o i t s l arge
gl obal warmi ng pot ent i al . Emi ssions of N
2
O from t ropi cal peat s ar e l ow compared t o CO
2
,
but evi dence suggest s t hat N
2
O, emi ssi ons increase foll owing l and use change and
drai nage. The det ermi nat i on of GHG emi ssion fact ors for drai ned peat requi re ri gorous
flux measurement s by chamber s or eddy covariance measurement s i n combinat i on wi th
conti nuous moni toring of si t e condi tions.
The rol e of t ropi cal peat i s cruci al in t erms of GHG emi ssions because t he carbon st ock of
peat consi derabl y out wei ghs t hat of t he biomass above ground. Moreover si gni fi cant
amount s of carbon are rel eased by fi re and decomposi ti on.

2.4 METHODS FOR ESTI MATI NG CO2 EMI SSI ONS FROM
DEFORESTATI ON AND FOREST DEGRADATI ON
Sandra Brown, Winrock I nt ernat i onal , USA
Barbar a Braat z, USA
2. 4. 1 Scope of chapter
Thi s chapt er descri bes t he met hodologi es t hat can be used t o est i mat e carbon emi ssi ons
from deforest at i on and forest degr adat i on. I t builds on Chapt ers 2. 1, 2.2 and 2.3 of thi s
Sourcebook, whi ch descri be procedures for coll ect i ng the input dat a for t hese
met hodologi es, namel y areas of l and use and l and- use change ( Chapt er 2.1) , and carbon
st ocks and changes in carbon st ocks ( Chapt ers 2.2 and 2.3) .
The met hodol ogi es descri bed here are deri ved from t he 2006 I PCC AFOLU Gui delines and
t he 2003 I PCC GPG- LULUCF, and focus on t he Ti er 2 I PCC met hods, as t hese requi re
count ry- speci fi c dat a but do not require expert i se i n compl ex model s or det ail ed nat ional
forest invent ori es.
The AFOLU Gui delines and GPG- LULUCF def ine si x cat egori es of l and use
36
t hat ar e
furt her sub- di vided i nto subcat egori es of l and remai ni ng in the same cat egory ( e.g. ,
Forest Land Remai ning Forest Land) and of l and convert ed from one cat egory t o anot her


36
The names of t hese cat egor ies are a mixt ure of land- cover and land- use classes, but are
collect ively ref erred t o as ‘land- use’ cat egories by t he I PCC f or convenience.
2- 73
( e. g., Land convert ed t o Cropl and) . The l and conversion subcat egori es ar e t hen di vi ded
furt her based on ini ti al l and use ( e.g., Forest Land convert ed t o Cropl and, Grassl and
convert ed t o Cropl and) . Thi s st ruct ure was designed t o be broad enough t o cl assi fy all
l and areas i n each count ry and t o accommodat e di fferent l and cl assi fi cat ion syst ems
among count ri es. The st ruct ure all ows count ries t o account for, and t rack over t i me,
t hei r ent i re l and area, and enabl es greenhouse gas est i mat i on and reporti ng t o be
consi st ent and compar abl e among count ri es. For REDD+ est i mat i on, each subcat egory
coul d be further subdi vi ded by cli mat i c, ecol ogi cal , soil s, and/ or ant hropogeni c
di st urbance fact ors, depending upon t he l evel of st rat i fi cat ion chosen for area change
det ect i on and carbon st ock est i mat i on ( see Chapt er s 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3) .
For t he purposes of t hi s Sourcebook, fi ve I PCC l and- use subcat egori es are r el evant .
Al t hough t he t erm deforest at ion wi thin t he REDD+ mechani sm remai ns t o be defi ned, i t
i s l i kel y t o be encompassed by t he f our l and- use change subcat egori es defined for
conversi on of forest s t o non-forest s ( see Sect ion 1.2.3
37
) . Forest degr adat i on, or the
long-t erm l oss of carbon st ocks t hat does not quali fy as deforest at i on i s encompassed by
t he I PCC l and-use subcat egory “ Forest Land Remaining Forest Land.” The met hodol ogi es
t hat are present ed here ar e based on t he sect ions of t he AFOLU Gui deli nes and t he GPG-
LULUCF t hat pert ai n t o these l and-use subcat egori es.
Wi thi n each l and-use subcat egory, t he I PCC met hods t r ack changes i n carbon st ocks i n
fi ve pool s ( see Chapt ers 2.2 and 2.3) . The I PCC emi ssion/ removal est i mat i on
met hodologi es cover all of t hese carbon pool s. Tot al net carbon emi ssi ons equal t he sum
of emi ssi ons and removal s for each pool . However, as i s di scussed i n Chapt er 4, REDD+
accounti ng schemes may or may not i ncl ude all carbon pool s. Whi ch pool s t o include wi ll
depend on deci sions by pol i cy maker s t he could be dri ven by such f act ors as fi nanci al
resources, avail abil it y of exi sti ng dat a, ease and cost of measurement , and t he pri nci pl e
of conservat i veness.
2. 4. 2 Linkage t o 20 06 I PCC Guideli nes
Tabl e 2.4.1 li st s t he sect ions of t he AFOLU Guidel ines t hat descri be carbon est i mat ion
met hods for each l and- use subcat egory. Thi s t abl e i s provi ded t o facil i t at e searchi ng for
furt her informat i on on t hese met hods i n t he AFOLU Gui del ines, whi ch can be di ffi cul t
gi ven t he compl ex st ruct ure of t hi s volume. To revi ew greenhouse gas est i mat i on
met hods for a part i cul ar l and- use cat egory i n the AFOLU Gui deli nes, one must refer t o
t wo separ at e chapt ers: a generi c met hods chapt er ( Chapt er 2) and t he l and- use
cat egory chapt er speci fi c t o t hat l and- use cat egory (i .e., ei t her Chapt er 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or
9) . The met hods for a part i cul ar l and-use subcat egory are cont ai ned in sect i ons i n each
of these chapt ers.


37
The subcat egory “ Land Convert ed t o Wet lands” includes t he conversion of f orest land t o f looded
land, but as t his land- use change is unlikel y t o be import ant in t he cont ext of REDD+ account ing,
and measur ement s of emissions f rom f looded f orest lands are relat ively scarce and highly variable,
t his land- use change is not addressed f urt her in t his chapt er.
2- 74
Table 2.4.1. Locat i ons of Carbon Est i mat ion Met hodologi es i n t he 2006 AFOLU
Gui delines.
Land- Use Cat egory
( Relevant Land- Use
Cat egory Chapt er in
AFOLU Guidelines)
Land- Use
Subcat egory
( Subcat egory
Acronym)
Sect ions in
Relevant Land- Use
Cat egory Chapt er
( Chapt er 4 , 5, 6 , 8,
or 9)
Sect ions in
Generic
Methods
Chapter
( Chapt er 2 )
Forest Land
( Chapt er 4)
Forest Land
Remai ning Forest
Land ( FF)
4.2.1
4.2.2
4.2.3
2.3.1.1
2.3.2.1
2.3.3.1.
Cropl and
( Chapt er 5)
Land Convert ed t o
Cropl and ( LC)
5.3.1
5.3.2
5.3.3
2.3.1.2
2.3.2.2
2.3.3.1
Grassl and
( Chapt er 6)
Land Convert ed t o
Grassl and ( LG)
6.3.1
6.3.2
6.3.3
2.3.1.2
2.3.2.2
2.3.3.1
Set t l ement s
( Chapt er 8)
Land Convert ed t o
Set t l ement s ( LS)
8.3.1
8.3.2
8.3.3
2.3.1.2
2.3.2.2
2.3.3.1
Ot her Land
( Chapt er 9)
Land Convert ed t o
Ot her Land ( LO)
9.3.1
9.3.2
9.3.3
2.3.1.2
2.3.2.2
2.3.3.1

I nformat ion and gui dance on uncert ai nt i es rel evant t o est i mat i on of emi ssions f rom l and
use and l and-use change ar e locat ed in various chapt er s of t wo separat e volumes of t he
2006 I PCC Gui delines. Chapt er 3 of t he General Gui dance and Reporti ng volume ( Vol ume
1) of t he 2006 I PCC Gui deli nes provi des det ailed, but non- sect or- speci fi c, gui dance on
sources of uncert ai nt y and uncert aint y est i mat i on met hodologi es. Land- use subcat egory-
speci fi c informat i on about uncert ai nti es for speci fi c carbon pool s and l and uses i s
provi ded in each of t he l and-use cat egory chapt er s ( i .e., Chapt er 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9) of
t he AFOLU Gui delines ( Volume 4) .
2. 4. 3 Organizat i on of chapt er
The remai nder of t hi s chapt er di scusses carbon emi ssi on est i mat i on for deforest at i on and
forest degr adat i on:
 Sect ion 2.4.4 addresses basi c i ssues r el at ed t o carbon est i mat i on, including t he
concept of carbon t ransfers among pool s, emi ssi on uni t s, and fundament al
met hodologi es for est i mat ing annual changes i n carbon st ocks.
 Sect ion 2.4 .5 descri bes met hods for est imat i ng carbon emi ssions from
deforest at i on based on the generi c I PCC met hods for l and convert ed t o a new
l and-use cat egory, and on t he I PCC met hods speci fi c t o t ypes of l and-use
conversi ons from forest s.
 Sect ion 2.4.6 descri bes met hods for est i mat ing carbon emi ssi ons from forest
degr adat i on based on t he I PCC met hods for “ Forest Land Remai ning Forest Land.”
2. 4. 4 Fundamental carbon estimat ing issues
The overal l carbon est i mat i ng met hod used here i s one i n whi ch net changes i n carbon
st ocks i n t he fi ve t errest ri al carbon pool s are t racked over t i me. For each st rat a or sub-
di vi si on of l and area wi t hin a l and-use cat egory, t he sum of carbon st ock changes i n all
t he pool s equal s t he t ot al carbon st ock change for t hat st r at um. I n t he REDD+ cont ext ,
di scussions cent er on gross emi ssi ons t hus est i mat ing t he decrease in t ot al carbon
2- 75
st ocks, whi ch i s equat ed wi t h emi ssi ons of CO
2
t o t he at mospher e, i s all t hat i s needed
at t hi s t i me. For deforest at ion at a Ti er 1 l evel , t hi s si mpl y t ransl at es i nt o t he carbon
st ock of t he forest bei ng deforest ed because i t i s assumed t hat t hi s goes t o zero when
deforest ed. However, a decrease i n st ocks in an i ndi vi dual pool may or may not
represent an emi ssi on t o t he at mosphere because an i ndi vi dual pool can change due t o
bot h carbon t ransfer s t o and from t he at mosphere, and carbon t ransf ers t o anot her pool
( e. g., t he t ransfer of bi omass t o dead wood during logging) . Di st urbance mat ri ces ar e
di scussed below as a means t o t rack carbon t ransfers among pool s at higher Ti er l evel s
and t her eby avoi d over- or underest i mat es of emi ssions and i mprove uncert aint y
est i mat i on.
I n t he met hods descri bed here, all est i mat es of changes in carbon st ocks ( e.g., bi omass
growt h, carbon t ransfer s among pool s) are i n mass uni t s of carbon ( C) per year, e.g., t
C/ yr. To be consi st ent wi t h t he AFOLU Gui delines, equat i ons are wri t t en so t hat net
carbon emi ssi ons ( st ock decreases) are negat i ve.
38

There are t wo fundament all y di fferent , but equall y val i d, approaches t o est i mat i ng
carbon st ock changes: 1) t he st ock- based or st ock-di fference approach and 2) t he
process-based or gain-loss approach. These approaches can be used t o est i mat e st ock
changes i n any carbon pool , al t hough as i s expl ai ned bel ow, t hei r appli cabil it y t o soil
carbon st ocks i s li mi t ed. The st ock-based appr oach est i mat es t he di fference i n carbon
st ocks i n a part i cul ar pool at t wo poi nt s in ti me ( Equat ion 2.4.1) . Thi s met hod can be
used when carbon st ocks i n rel evant pool s have been measured and est i mat ed over
t i me, such as i n nat ional forest i nvent ori es. The process- based or gai n-loss approach
est i mat es t he net bal ance of addi ti ons t o and r emoval s f rom a carbon pool (Equati on 5-
2) . Gains i n t he li ving biomass pool resul t from veget at i on growt h whil e in t he ot her
pool s onl y by carbon t ransfer from anot her pool ( e.g., t ransfer from a bi omass pool t o a
dead organi c mat t er pool due t o di st urbance) , and losses resul t from carbon t ransfer t o
anot her pool and emi ssi ons due t o harvest i ng, decomposi t ion or burning. Thi s t ype of
met hod i s used when annual dat a such as bi omass growt h rat es and wood harvest s ar e
avail abl e. I n real i t y, a mi x of t he st ock- di fference and gai n-loss approaches can be used
as di scussed f urt her in thi s chapt er.
Equat ion 2.4.1
Annual Carbon St ock Change i n a Gi ven Pool as an Annual Average Di fference in Stocks
( St ock- Di fference Met hod)
( )
( )
1 2
1 2
t t
C C
C
t t
÷
÷
= A


Where:
∆C = annual carbon st ock change i n pool ( t C/ yr)
C
t 1
= carbon st ock i n pool in at t i me t
1
( t C)
C
t 2
= carbon st ock i n pool in at t i me t
2
( t C)
Not e: t he carbon st ock val ues for some pool s may be i n t C/ ha, in whi ch case t he
di fference in carbon st ocks wi ll need t o be mul ti pl i ed by an area.



38
To be consist ent wit h t he nat ional greenhouse gas invent ory report ing t ables est ablished by t he
I PCC, in which emissions ar e report ed as posit ive values, emissions would need t o be mult iplied by
negat ive one ( - 1).
2- 76
Equat ion 2.4.2
Annual Carbon St ock Change i n a Gi ven Pool As a Funct ion of Annual Gai ns and Losses
( Gai n- Loss Met hod)
L G
C C C A ÷ A = A

Where:
∆C = annual carbon st ock change i n pool ( t C/ yr)
∆C
G
= annual gai n in carbon ( t C/ yr)
∆C
L
= annual loss of carbon ( t C/ yr)

The st ock- dif ference met hod i s sui t abl e for est i mat i ng emi ssions caused by bot h
deforest at i on and forest degradat i on, and can appl y t o al l carbon pool s.
39
The carbon
st ock for any pool at t i me t
1
will represent t he carbon st ock of t hat pool i n t he forest of a
part i cul ar st r at um ( see Sect i ons 2. 2 and 2.3) , and t he carbon st ock of t hat pool at t i me
t
2
will ei t her be zero ( t he Ti er 1 defaul t val ue for bi omass and dead organi c mat t er
i mmedi at el y aft er deforest at ion) or t he val ue for t he pool under t he new l and use ( see
sect ion 2.4.5.2) or t he value for t he pool under t he resul t ant degraded forest . I f t he
carbon st ock val ues ar e i n uni t s of t C/ ha, t he change i n carbon st ocks, ∆C, is then
mul ti pli ed by t he area deforest ed or degr aded f or t hat part i cul ar st rat um, and t hen
di vi ded by t he t i me int erval to gi ve an annual est i mat e.
Est i mat i ng t he change i n carbon st ock usi ng the gai n-loss met hod ( Equat ion 2.4.2) i s not
li kel y t o be useful for deforest at ion est i mat i ng wi th a Ti er 1 or Ti er 2 met hod, but coul d
be used for Ti er 3 approach for bi omass and dead organi c mat t er i nvol vi ng det ail ed
forest invent ori es and/ or si mul at ion model s. However, t he gai n-loss met hod can be used
for f orest degradat ion to account for t he bi omass and dead organi c mat t er pool s wi t h a
Ti er 2 or Ti er 3 approach. Bi omass gai ns would be account ed for wi t h rat es of growt h,
and bi omass losses woul d be account ed for wi th dat a on ti mber harvest s, fuel wood
removal s, and t ransf ers t o t he dead organi c mat t er pool due t o di st urbance. Dead
organi c mat t er gai ns woul d be account ed for wi t h t ransf ers from t he li ve bi omass pool s
and l osses would be account ed for wi th rat es of dead biomass decomposi tion.
2. 4. 5 Est imation of emissions f rom deforest at ion
2.4 .5.1 Dist urbance mat rix documentat ion
Land- use conversi on, parti cul arl y from forest s t o non-forest s, can i nvol ve si gnifi cant
t ransf ers of carbon among pool s. The i mmedi at e i mpact s of l and conversi on on t he
carbon st ocks for each forest st r at um can be summari zed i n a mat ri x, whi ch descri bes
t he ret ent ion, t ransf ers, and rel eases of carbon in and from t he pool s in t he original
l and-use due t o conversi on ( Tabl e 2. 4.2) . The l evel of det ail on t hese t ransfer s wi ll
depend on t he deci si on of whi ch carbon pool s t o i nclude, whi ch in t urn wi ll depend on the
key cat egory anal ysi s ( see Tabl e 2.3.2 i n Sect ion 2.3) . The di st urbance mat ri x defi nes
for each pool t he proporti on of carbon t hat remai ns in t he pool and t he proporti ons t hat
are t r ansferred t o ot her pool s. Use of such a mat ri x i n carbon est i mat i ng will ensure
consi st ency of est i mat i ng among carbon pool s, as well as hel p to achi eve hi gher


39
Alt hough in t heor y t he st ock- diff erence approach could be used t o est imat e st ock changes in
bot h mineral soils and organic soils, t his approach is unlikely t o be used in pract ice due t o t he
expense of measuring soil carbon st ocks. The I PCC has adopt ed dif f er ent met hodologies for soil
carbon, which are described below.
2- 77
accur acy in carbon emi ssi ons est i mat i on. Even if all t he dat a in the mat ri x are not used,
t he mat ri x can assi st in est i mat i on of uncert ainties.
Table 2 .4.2. Exampl e of a di st urbance mat ri x for t he i mpact s of deforest at i on on carbon
pool s (Tabl e 5.7 in t he AFOLU Gui delines) . I mpossi bl e t ransfer s ar e bl acked out . I n each
bl ank cell , t he proporti on of each pool on t he l eft si de of t he mat ri x t hat i s t ransferred t o
t he pool at t he t op of each column i s ent ered. Val ues i n each row must sum t o 1.
To
From
Above-
ground
biomass
Below-
ground
biomass
Dead
wood
Lit t er
Soil
organic
mat t er
Harvest ed
wood
pr oduct s
At mo-
sphere
Sum of
row (must
equal 1)
Abovegrou
nd biomass

Belowgroun
d biomass

Dead wood

Lit t er

Soil organic
mat t er


2.4 .5.2 Changes in carbon st ocks of biomass
The I PCC met hods for est i mat i ng the annual car bon st ock change on l and convert ed t o a
new l and- use cat egory incl ude t wo component s:
 One account s for t he ini ti al change i n carbon st ocks due t o t he l and conversion,
e.g., t he change i n biomass st ocks due t o forest cl earing and conversi on t o say
cropl and.
 The ot her component account s for t he gradual carbon loss duri ng a t ransi tion
period t o a new st eady- st at e syst em and t he carbon gai ns due t o veget at ion
regrowt h, if any.
For t he bi omass pool s, conversi on t o annual cropl and and set t l ement s gener al l y cont ain
lower biomass and st eady- st at e i s usuall y reached in a short er peri od ( e. g., t he def aul t
assumpt i on for annual cropl and i s 1 year) . The t i me period needed t o reach st eady st at e
in perenni al cropl and ( e. g., orchards) or even grassl ands, however, i s t ypi call y more
t han one year. The i nclusi on of t hi s second component wil l li kel y become more i mport ant
for f uture moni toring of t he perf ormance of REDD+ as count ri es consi der movi ng int o a
Ti er 3 approach and i mpl ement an annual or bi -annual moni t oring syst em.
The ini ti al change i n biomass ( li ve or dead) st ocks due t o l and- use conver sion i s
est i mat ed usi ng a st ock- di fference approach i n whi ch t he difference i n st ocks before and
aft er conver si on i s cal cul at ed for each st rat um of l and convert ed. Equat i on 2.4.3 ( bel ow)
i s t he equat ion present ed in t he AFOLU Gui delines for biomass.
2- 78
Equat ion 2.4.3
I ni ti al Change in Biomass Carbon St ocks on Land Convert ed t o New Land- Use Cat egory
( St ock- Di fference Type Met hod)
( ) | | CF A B B C
i BEFOREi AFTERi CONV
· A · ÷ = A
¯

Where:
∆C
CONV
= ini ti al change i n biomass carbon st ocks on l and convert ed t o anot her l and- use
cat egory ( t C yr
- 1
)
B
AFTERi
= bi omass st ocks on l and t ype i i mmedi at el y aft er conversi on (t dry mat t er/ ha)
B
BEFOREi
= bi omass st ocks on l and t ype i before conversi on ( t dry mat t er/ ha)
∆A
i
= area of l and t ype i convert ed ( ha)
CF = carbon fract i on ( t C / t dm)
i = st r at um of l and

The Ti er 1 def aul t assumpt i on for bi omass and dead organi c mat t er st ocks i mmedi at el y
aft er conver si on of forest s t o non- forest s i s t hat t hey are zero, whereas t he Ti er 2
met hod all ows for t he biomass and dead organic mat t er st ocks aft er conver si on t o have
non- zero val ues. Di st urbance mat ri ces ( e.g. , Tabl e 2.4. 2) can be used t o summari ze t he
fat e of bi omass and dead organi c mat t er st ocks, and t o ensure consi st ency among pool s.
The bi omass st ocks i mmedi at el y aft er conver sion wil l depend on t he amount of li ve
bi omass removed during conversi on. During conversi on, aboveground bi omass may be
removed as t i mber of fuel wood, burned and t he carbon emi t t ed t o t he at mosphere or
t ransf erred t o t he dead wood pool , and/ or cut and l ef t on the ground as deadwood; and
belowground bi omass may be t r ansferr ed t o t he soil organi c mat t er pool (See Ch 2.3.5) .
Est i mat es of def aul t val ues for t he biomass st ocks on cropl ands and grassl ands are gi ven
in t he AFOLU Gui delines in Tabl e 5.9 ( cropl ands) and Tabl e 6. 4 ( grassl ands) . The dead
organi c mat t er ( DOM) st ocks i mmedi at el y af t er conversi on wi ll depend on t he amount of
li ve biomass ki ll ed and t ransferred t o t he DOM pool s, and t he amount of DOM carbon
rel eased t o t he at mosphere due t o burning and decomposi tion. I n general , cropl ands
( except agroforest ry syst ems) and set t l ement s will have li t tl e or no dead wood and li t t er
so t he Ti er 1 ‘aft er conversi on’ assumpt i on for t hese pool s may be r easonabl e for t hese
l and uses.
A t wo- component approach f or bi omass and DOM may not be necessary i n REDD+
est i mat i ng. I f l and-use conver sions are permanent , and al l t hat one i s int erest ed i n i s t he
t ot al change i n carbon st ocks, t hen all t hat i s needed i s t he carbon st ock pri or t o
conversi on, and t he carbon st ocks aft er conversi on once st eady st at e i s reached. These
dat a woul d be used i n a st ock di fference met hod ( Equat i on 2. 4.1) , wi th t he ti me int erval
t he peri od bet ween l and- use conver si on and st eady- st at e under t he new l and use.
2.4 .5.3 Changes in soil carbon st ocks
The I PCC Ti er 2 met hod for mi neral soi l organic carbon i s basi call y a combinat i on of a
st ock- di fference met hod and a gai n-l oss met hod (Equat ion 2.4.4) . (The fi rst part of
Equat ion 2.4.4 [ for ∆C
Miner al
] i s essent i al l y a st ock- di fference equat i on, whil e t he second
part [ for SOC] i s essent i all y a gai n-loss met hod wi t h t he gains and l osses deri ved from
t he product of reference carbon st ocks and st ock change f act ors) . The reference carbon
st ock i s t he soi l carbon st ock t hat woul d have been present under nat i ve veget at i on on
t hat st r at um of l and, gi ven i t s cli mat e and soil t ype.
2- 79
Equat ion 2.4.4
Annual Change i n Organi c Carbon Stocks i n Mineral Soil s
( )
D
SOC SOC
C
T
Mineral
) 0 ( 0 ÷
÷
= A

( )
¯
A · · · · =
i S C
i S C I MG LU REF
A F F F SOC SOC
i S C i S C i S C i S C , ,
, ,
, , , , , , , ,

Where:
∆C
Miner al
= annual change i n organi c carbon st ocks i n miner al soil s ( t C yr
- 1
)
SOC
0
= soil organi c carbon st ock in t he l ast year of t he invent ory t i me peri od ( t C)
SOC
( 0- T)
= soil organi c carbon st ock at t he beginning of the i nvent ory ti me period ( t C)
T = number of years over a si ngl e i nvent ory t i me period ( yr)
D = Ti me dependence of st ock change fact ors whi ch i s t he defaul t ti me peri od for
t ransi t ion bet ween equili brium SOC val ues ( yr) . 20 years i s commonl y used, but
depends on assumpt i ons made i n computi ng t he fact ors F
LU
, F
MG
, and F
I
. I f T
exceeds D, use t he val ue for T to obt ai n an annual rat e of change over t he
invent ory ti me peri od ( 0- T year s) .
c = represent s t he cli mat e zones, s t he soil t ypes, and i t he set of management
syst ems t hat ar e present i n a count ry
SOC
REF
= t he ref er ence carbon st ock ( t C ha
- 1
)
F
LU
= st ock change f act or for l and-use syst ems or sub- syst em for a part i cul ar l and
use (di mensi onl ess)
F
MG
= st ock change f act or for management regi me ( di mensi onl ess)
F
I
= st ock change f act or for input of organi c mat t er ( di mensionl ess)
A = l and area of t he st rat um bei ng est i mat ed ( ha)

The l and areas i n each st r at um bei ng est i mat ed should have common bi ophysi cal
condi ti ons (i .e., cli mat e and soil t ype) and management hi st ory over t he i nvent ory ti me
period. Al so di st urbed forest soi l s can t ake many years t o reach a new st eady st at e ( t he
I PCC defaul t for conversi on t o cropl and i s 20 year s) .
Count ri es may not have suffi ci ent count ry-speci fi c dat a t o full y i mpl ement a Ti er 2
approach f or mineral soil s, in whi ch case a mi x of count ry- speci fi c and defaul t dat a may
be used. Def aul t dat a f or refer ence soi l organi c carbon st ocks can be found i n Tabl e 2.3
of t he AFOLU Guideli nes ( see al so Ch 4.4.3) . Defaul t st ock change fact ors can be found
in t he l and-use cat egory chapt er s of t he AFOLU Gui deli nes (Chapt er 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9).
The I PCC Ti er 2 met hod for organi c soil car bon i s an emi ssi on fact or met hod t hat
empl oys annual emi ssion fact or t hat var y by cl imat e t ype and possi bl y by management
syst em ( Equat i on 2.4.5) . However, empi ri cal dat a from many st udi es on peat swamp
soi l s in I ndonesi a coul d be used i n such cases—see Box 2.3.1 ( Sect i on 2.3) .
2- 80
Equat ion 2.4.5
Annual Carbon Loss from Drained Organi c Soil s
¯
· =
C
C Organic
EF A L ) (

Where:
L
Or ganic
= annual carbon loss f rom drained organi c soi l s ( t C yr
- 1
)
A
c
= l and area of drai ned organi c soil s in cli mat e t ype c (ha)
EF
c
= emi ssi on fact or for cl i mat e t ype c ( t C yr
- 1
)
Not e t hat l and areas and emi ssion f act ors can al so be di saggregat ed by management
syst em, i f t here ar e emi ssions dat a t o support thi s.

Thi s met hodology can be di saggregat ed furt her i nt o emi ssi ons by management syst ems
in addi ti on t o climat e t ype i f appropri at e emi ssi on fact ors ar e avail abl e. Defaul t ( Ti er 1)
emi ssi on fact ors for drai ned forest , cropl and, and grassl and soil s are f ound i n Tabl es 4.6,
5. 6, and 6.3 of t he AFOLU Guideli nes.
2. 4. 6 Est imation of emissions f rom forest degradat ion
2.4 .6.1 Changes in carbon st ocks
For degr adat i on, t he mai n changes i n carbon st ocks occur in t he veget at i on ( see Tabl e
2. 3.2 i n Sect i on 2.3) . As i s di scussed i n Sect i on 2.3, est i mat i on of soi l carbon emi ssi ons
i s onl y recommended for i nt ensi ve pract i ces t hat i nvol ve si gnifi cant soil di st urbance.
Sel ect i ve logging for t i mber or fuel wood, whet her l egal or ill egal , in forest s on mi neral
soi l does not t ypi call y di st urb soil s si gnifi cantly. However, sel ect i ve logging of forest s
growing on organi c soil s, part i cul arl y peat swamps, coul d resul t i n l arge emi ssi ons caused
by pract i ces such as dr ai ning t o remove t he logs from t he forest , and t hen oft en foll owed
by fi res ( see Box 2.3.1 i n Sect ion 2.3) . However, in t hi s sect ion gui dance i s provi ded
onl y for t he emi ssi ons f rom biomass.
The AFOLU Gui delines recommend ei t her a st ock- di fference met hod ( Equat i on 2.4.1) or
a gai n-loss met hod (Equat ion 2.4. 2) for est i mat i ng t he annual carbon st ock change i n
“ Forest s Remaini ng Forest s”. I n gener al , bot h met hods ar e appli cabl e for all ti ers. Wi t h a
gai n-loss approach for est i mat i ng emi ssi ons, biomass gai ns woul d be account ed for wi t h
rat es of growt h in t rees aft er l ogging, and biomass l osses woul d be account ed for wi t h
dat a on t i mber harvest s, fuel wood removal s, and t ransfers of l i ve t o t he dead organi c
mat t er pool due t o di st urbance ( al so see Box 2.3.9 in Sect i on 2.3 for more gui dance on
i mprovement s for t hi s approach) . Wi t h a st ock- di ff erence approach, carbon st ocks i n
each pool would be est i mat ed bot h before and aft er degr adat ion ( e.g. a t i mber harvest ) ,
and t he diff erence i n carbon st ocks in each pool cal cul at ed.
The deci si on regarding whet her a st ock- di fference met hod or a gai n-l oss met hod i s used
will depend l argel y on t he avail abil i t y of exi st ing dat a and resources t o coll ect addi ti onal
dat a. Est i mat ing t he carbon i mpact s of l ogging may l end i t sel f more readi l y t o t he gai n-
loss approach, whi l e est i mat i ng t he carbon i mpact s of fi re may l end i t sel f more readil y t o
t he st ock- di fference approach. For exampl e, i n t he AFOLU Guidel ines, det ail s are gi ven
for using t he gain-l oss met hod for logging. This approach coul d be used for al l forms of
bi omass ext r act ion ( ti mber and fuel wood, l egally and il legal l y ext ract ed) and experi ence
has shown t hat i f appli ed correct l y can produce more accur at e and preci se emi ssi on
est i mat es cost effect i vel y ( see Box 2.3.9 in Sect i on 2.3) .
For Forest s Remai ning Forest s, t he Ti er 1 assumpt ion i s t hat net carbon st ock changes in
dead organi c mat t er are zero, whereas i n real it y dead wood can decompose r el at i vel y
slowl y, even i n t ropi cal humi d cli mat es. Bot h loggi ng and fi res can si gni fi cantl y i nfl uence
2- 81
st ocks in t he dead wood and li t t er pool s, so count ri es t hat are experi encing si gnifi cant
changes i n t hei r forest s due t o degr adat i on are encouraged t o devel op domest i c dat a t o
est i mat e t he i mpact of t hese changes on dead organi c mat t er. I t i s recommended t hat
t he i mpact s of degr adat i on on each carbon pool for each forest st rat um be summari zed
in a mat ri x as shown in Tabl e 2. 4.2 above.

2.5 METHODS FOR ESTI MATI NG GHG EMI SSI ONS FROM
BI OMASS BURNI NG
Lui gi Boschet t i , Uni versi t y of Maryl and, USA
Chri s Just i ce, Uni versi t y of Maryl and, USA
Davi d Roy, South Dakot a St at e Uni versi t y, USA
I van Csi szar, NOAA, USA
Emil io Chiuvi eco, Uni versi t y of Al cal a, Spain
Al l an Spessa, Uni versi t y of Readi ng, UK
Anj a A. Hoffman, L.M. Uni versi t y of Muni ch, Germany
Jeremy Russell -Smi t h, Charl es Darwi n Uni versi t y, Aust rali a
Mar c Pagani ni , European Space Agency
Oli vi er Ari no, European Space Agency
2. 5. 1 Scope of chapter
Chapt er 2. 5 i s focused on fires i n forest envi ronment s and how t o cal cul at e greenhouse
gas emi ssions due t o veget at i on fi res, usi ng avail abl e sat ell it e-based fire moni toring
product s, bi omass est i mat es and coeffi ci ent s.
Sect i on 2.5.2 int roduces emi ssi ons due t o fire i n forest envi ronment s and approaches t o
est i mat es emi ssions from fires.
Sect i on 2.5.3 focuses on the I PCC guidelines for est i mat i ng fire- rel at ed emi ssi on.
Sect i on 2.5.4 focuses on Syst ems for observi ng and mapping fi re.
Sect i on 2.5.5 descri bes t he pot ent i al use of exi sti ng fire and burned area product s.
2. 5. 2 I nt roduct ion
2.5 .2.1 REDD+ and emissions due to fire in forest environment s
Fi re i s a compl ex bi ophysi cal process wi t h mul ti pl e di rect and i ndi rect effect s on t he
at mospher e, t he bi osphere and t he hydrosphere. Moreover, i t i s now widel y recogni zed
t hat , i n some fi re prone environment s, fi re di st urbance i s essent i al t o maint ain t he
ecosyst em in a st at e of equi librium.
Reduci ng t he emi ssi ons f rom deforest at i on and degr adat i on ( REDD) from fire requi res an
underst andi ng of t he process of fi re in forest syst ems ( ei t her as an ecologi cal change
agent , a di st urbance, a f orest management t ool , or as a process associ at ed wi t h l and
cover conver si on) and how fire emi ssi ons ar e cal cul at ed. Fi re can be seen bot h as a
t hreat t o REDD, in t he measure in whi ch i t i s a di st urbance af fect i ng areas wher e
programs ai med at reduci ng deforest at ion and degr adat i on are i n pl ace, but al so as an
int egral component of REDD+ i f t he emi ssi ons due t o fi re are di rect l y addressed t hrough
2- 82
int egrat ed fi re and f orest management programs. The speci fi c det ail s of how REDD+ wi ll
be i mpl ement ed wi th respect t o fi re are st il l in devel opment .
Thi s chapt er focuses on above- ground fires in forest envi ronment s and how to cal cul at e
greenhouse gas emi ssions due t o veget at ion fires, usi ng avail abl e sat elli t e- based fi re
moni tori ng product s, biomass est i mat es and coeffi ci ent s. Below- ground fi res, for
exampl e, t hose t hat occur i n t he peat forest s of I ndonesi a, Al aska or Canada ar e beyond
t he scope of t hi s sourcebook versi on, al t hough i t i s envi saged t hat i n t he fut ure, bel ow-
ground fi res wil l be account ed for.
The effect s of fire in forest s ar e wi del y vari abl e. I t i s possi bl e t o refer t o fi re severi t y as a
t erm t o indi cat e t he magni t ude of t he effect s of t he fi re on t he ecosyst em
40
whi ch in t urn
i s st rongl y rel at ed t o t he post - fire st at us of the ecosyst em. As a broad cat egori zat ion,
low severi t y surface f ires af fect mai nl y t he underst ory veget at ion rat her t han t he t rees,
whi l e hi gh severi t y crown fi res di rect l y affect t he t r ees. The l at t er ar e somet i mes
referred t o as st and repl acement fi res. Consequentl y, at t he broad scal e, ground fires
gener al l y do not al t er t he equi librium of t he ecosyst em (i .e. do not resul t i n a conversi on
from forest t o non forest cover) , but i ncreased fi re frequency and int ensi t y can l ead t o
forest t ransi t ion, st ar t ing wi th degradat i on bef ore compl et e conversi on. Crown fi res can
l ead t o a forest - non-forest t emporar y t ransi t ion foll owed by r egrowt h ( i .e. fi re i s a
di st urbance) , or t o a permanent change where human act i vi t i es inhibi t f orest
regenerat ion.
The i ssue of t he defini tion of forest ( descri bed in det ail in chapt er 1.2) i s a part i cul arl y
sensi ti ve one when t he fire moni toring from sat elli t e dat a i s concerned. Wi t hi n t he 10 t o
30 percent t ree crown cover range indi cat ed by t he Marrakech Accords, most of woody
savannah ecosyst ems mi ght or mi ght not be consi dered as f orest . These ar e t he
ecosyst ems wher e most of t he bi omass burning occurs (Roy et al ., 2008, van der Werf,
2003) and where fi re i s an i mport ant process cont ri buting t o t he mai nt enance of t he
present l and cover. Typi call y, high fire frequency i n savannas (f i re ret urn int erval of a
few years or l ess) inhibi t s young t ree growt h and successi on from open t o closed
woodl and ecosyst ems. These fi re- prone ecosyst ems ar e char act eri zed by a cycl e of
recurri ng fi res and nat ural regener at i on of the veget at i on t o i t s ori gi nal st at e; t her efore,
t he presence of fire i s not per se regarded as a component of t he cli mat e change
process. I nst ead, t here i s a need t o est abli sh baseli ne dat a on t he current fi re regi mes,
in order t o assess any changes and t rends in fi re and emi ssion pat t erns.
Diff erent fire management pr act i ces i n different ecosyst ems can det ermine t he amount
of t race- gas and par t i cul at e emi ssi ons and changes t o forest carbon st ocks. I n cl osed
forest s, cont roll ed ground fi res reduce t he amount of biomass i n t he underst ory but ,
over a period of ti me, may l ead t o i ncrease i n carbon st ock by r educi ng t he occurrence
of high severi t y, st and r epl acement fi res, and under cert ai n ci rcumst ances, by promoti ng
t he growt h of f ast growi ng shade i nt ol erant t ree speci es. Conver sel y, i n open woodl and
syst ems, reduci ng t he occurrence of fi re all ows t ree growt h wi t h t he subsequent effect of
carbon sequest r at i on. Furt hermore, emi ssion coeffi ci ent s do have a seasonal vari abili t y
( Koront zi et al . , 2004) : even assumi ng t hat fi res aff ect t he same areal ext ent , shifti ng
t he t i mi ng of t he burning ( earl y season versus l at e season) can have a si gnifi cant effect
on t he t ot al emi ssions. Wi l dfi res ar e char act erised by t wo main forms of combust ion–
fl aming and smoulderi ng combusti on; whi ch i mpli es t hat vari abl e emi ssi on coeffi ci ent s
should be used. I t i s t he rel at i ve mi x of t hese t wo t ypes of combust ion t hat gener at e t he
mi x of speci es emi t t ed from bi omass burning. Fl aming combust ion or oxi dat ion- t ype
combust i on react i ons ( e.g. producti on of CO
2
, NOx) proceed at a fast er rat e when t he
fuel i s dry and has a l arge surface- ar ea- t o- volume ( SAV) rat i o. The converse hol ds for
smol dering combust i on or reduct i on- t ype r eact ions (CO, CH
4
et c). A good exampl e i s t he
t ropi cal savannas i n whi ch earl y dry season burns produce a hi gher CO/ CO
2
rat i o than


40
De Sant is A, Chuvieco E, Vaughan P (2009) Short - t erm assessment of burn severit y using t he
inversion of PROSPECT and GeoSail models. Remot e Sensing of Environment . 113: 126-136.
2- 83
t hose duri ng t he l at e dr y season. Earl y season burning when fuel s t end t o be moi st i s
of t en recommended as a good fi re management pract i ce i n savanna woodl ands as t he
fi res are l ess i nt ense, t hus l ess damagi ng to t he t rees, t he ecosyst em and hence t he
carbon st ock. I n order t o ful ly quantif y t he i mpli cat i ons i n t erms of emi ssi ons of earl y
ver sus l at e season fires, more research i s needed t o charact eri ze full y t he seasonal
vari abi li t y of t he emi ssion coeffi ci ent s. The purpose of t hi s chapt er i s t o present and
expl ai n t he I PCC gui delines, li st t he avail abl e sources of geographi cal l y di st ri but ed dat a
t o be used for t he emi ssi ons est i mat ion, illust rat e some of t he mai n i ssues and
uncert ai nti es associ at ed wi t h t he vari ous st eps of t he met hodology. Drawing from t he
experi ence of GOFC- GOLD Fi re I mpl ement at ion Team and Regi onal Fi re Net works, t he
chapt er emphasi zes t he possi bl e use of sat el li t e deri ved product s and i nformat i on.
2.5 .2.2 Direct and indirect approach t o emission est imat es
Est i mat es of at mospheri c emi ssi ons due t o biomass burni ng have convent ionall y been
deri ved adopt ing ‘bot t om up’ invent ory based met hods ( Seil er & Crut zen, 1980) as:
L = A × Mb × Cf × Gef [ Equat ion 2.5.1 ]
where t he quant i t y of emi t t ed gas or part i cul at e L [ g] i s t he product of t he ar ea affect ed
by fi re A [ m2] , t he f uel loadi ng per uni t area Mb [ g m
- 2
] , t he combust i on fact or Cf, i . e.
t he proportion of biomass consumed as a resul t of fire [ g g
- 1
] , and t he emi ssi on fact or or
emi ssi on rat i o Gef, i .e. t he amount of gas rel eased for each gaseous speci e per uni t of
bi omass load consumed by t he fi re [ g g
- 1
] .
Rat her t han at t empt i ng t o measure di rect l y t he emi ssi ons L, t hi s met hod est i mat es t he
pre- fire bi omass ( A x Mb) , t hen est i mat e what port i on of i t burned ( Cf ) and finall y
convert s t he t ot al biomass burned ( A x Mb x Cf) i nt o emi ssi ons by means of t he
coeffi ci ent Gef. For t hi s reason, i t i s defined as an indirect met hod. A preci se est i mat e of
L requi res a preci se est i mat e of all the t erms of equat i on 2.5. 1.
I n t he past , t he ar ea burnt ( A) was consi dered t o be t he vari abl e wi th t he great est
uncert ai nt y, however, i n t he l ast decade si gnifi cant i mprovement s i n t he syst emat i c
mapping of area burned from sat el lit e dat a have been made ( Roy et al . 2008). Fuel l oad
( Mb) remai ns an uncert ai n vari abl e and has been generall y est i mat ed from sampl e fi el d
dat a, and/ or si mul at i on model s of pl ant product ivi t y dri ven by sat el li t e- deri ved est i mat es
of pl ant phot osynt hesi s. The CASA model i s a good exampl e of thi s approach where by
sat elli t e dat a i s used t o cal cul at e Net Pri mary Product i on t o provi de biomass increment s
and part i ti oning bet ween fuel cl asses
41
. Emi ssion fact ors ( Gef) have been fai rl y preci sel y
est i mat ed from l aborat ory measurement s
42
. However i t i s by no means cer t ain how
t hese t r ansl at e t o di fferent condi t ions out si de t hose measured i n the l aborat ory and at
t he ecosyst em l evel . Aerosol emi ssion fact ors and t he t emporal dynami cs of emi ssi on
fact ors as a f unct ion of fuel moi st ure cont ent r emain uncert ai n ( e.g. t hose of CO2 versus
CO, see above) . The burning effi ci ency ( Cf) i s a funct ion of fire condi tion/ behavi or, t he
rel at i ve proporti ons of woody, grass, and l eaf l it t er f uel s, t he fuel moi st ure cont ent and
t he uniformi t y of t he fuel bed. Dependenci es on cover t ype can pot ent i al l y be speci fi ed
by t he use of sat elli t e- deri ved l and cover cl assifi cat i ons or rel at ed product s such as t he
percent age t r ee cover product
43
, used by Koront zi et al . ( 2004) t o di st i ngui sh grassl ands
and woodl ands in Sout hern Afri ca t hrough a model rel at ed t o Cf ( combusti on
compl et eness, CC) as a wei ght ed proportion of f uel t ypes and emi ssi on fact or dat abase


41
van der Werf GR et al. ( 2006) I nt erannual variabilit y in global biomass burning emissions f rom
1997 t o 2004. At mospheric Chemist ry and Physics. 6: 3423-3441.
42
Andreae MO, Merl et P ( 2001) Emi ssi on of t race gases and aerosols from bi omass burning,
Gl obal Biogeochemical Cycles, 15: 955- 966.
43
Hansen MC et al. ( 2002) Per cent Tree Cover at a Spat ial Resolut ion of 500 Met ers: First Result s
of t he MODI S Veget at ion Cont inuous Field Algorit hm. Eart h I nt eract ions, 7: 1- 15.
2- 84
values. Roy and Landmann
44
st at ed t hat t here i s no direct met hod t o est i mat e CC from
remot e sensi ng dat a, al t hough f or savannas t hey demonst r at ed a near linear rel at i onshi p
bet ween t he product of CC and t he proportion of a sat el lit e pi xel af fect ed by fi re and t he
rel at i ve change i n short wave i nfrared refl ect ance.
Rat her t han est i mat e A × Mb × Cf i ndependent l y, a more recent l y proposed al t ernat i ve
i s t o direct l y measure t he power emi t t ed by act ivel y burning fi res and f rom t hi s est i mat e
t he t ot al biomass consumed. The radi at i ve component of t he energy rel eased by burning
veget at i on can be remot el y sensed at mi d infrared and t hermal i nfrared wavel engt hs
45,46
.
Thi s inst ant aneous measure, t he Fi re Radi at i ve Power ( FRP) expr essed in Wat t s [ W] , has
been shown to be rel at ed t o t he rat e of consumpt i on of biomass [ g/ s] . I mport ant l y t hi s
met hod provi des accurat e ( i .e. ± 15%) est i mat es of t he rat e of fuel consumed ( Woost er
et al 2005) and t he int egral of t he FRP over t he fi re durat i on, t he Fi re Radi at i ve Energy
( FRE) expressed i n Joul es [ J] , has been shown to be l inearl y rel at ed t o t he t ot al biomass
consumed by fi re [ g]
47
. However, t he accuracy of t he int egrat i on of FRP over t i me t o
deri ve FRE depends on t he spat i al and t emporal sampling of t he emi t t ed power. I deall y,
t he int egrat i on requires hi gh spat i al resolution and cont i nuous observat i on over t i me,
whi l e t he current l y avail abl e syst ems provi de low spat i al resol ution and hi gh t emporal
resoluti on ( geost at i onary sat elli t es) or moderat e spat i al resolution and l ow t emporal
resoluti on ( pol ar orbi t ing syst ems). For t hi s reason, di rect met hods have yet t o t r ansi tion
from t he research domai n t o operat ional appli cat i on, and at t hi s st age t hey ar e not a
vi abl e al t ernat i ve t o indirect met hods for GHG invent ori es i n t he cont ext of REDD.
2. 5. 3 I PCC guideli nes for est imat i ng fire- relat ed emission
The I PCC gui del ines i nclude t he use of an i ndi rect met hod for emi ssi ons est i mat es, and
incl ude a t hree t i ered approach t o CO2 and non- CO2 emi ssi ons from fi re, Ti er 1 using
most l y def aul t val ues for equat ion 2.5.1, and Ti ers 2 and 3 including increasi ngl y more
si t e-speci fi c formul ati ons for fuel loads and coeffi ci ent s.
Using the unit s adopt ed i n t he I PCC gui del ines, equat ion 2.5.1 i s wri t t en as:
Lfi re = A × Mb × Cf × Gef × 10
- 3
[ Equat ion 2.5. 2]
where L i s expressed i n t onnes of each gas
A in hect ares
Mb i n t onnes/ hect ar e
Cf i s adi ment ional
Gef in grams/ ki l ogram

The Area burned A [ ha] should be char act eri sed as a funct i on of forest t ypes of di fferent
cli mat e or ecologi cal zones and, wi t hin each forest t ype, char act eri sed in t erms of fi re
char act eri st i cs ( crown fi re, surface fi re, l and cl eari ng fire, sl ash and burn...) . Thi s i s
needed t o par amet eri ze appropri at el y t he Cf × Ge f act ors, whi ch mi ght change wi t h t he
t ype of fi re.


44
Roy DP, Landmann T ( 2005) Charact erizing t he surface het erogeneit y of f ire eff ect s using mult i-
t emporal ref lect ive wavelengt h dat a. I nt ernat ional Journal of Remot e Sensing, 26: 4197- 4218
45
I choku C, Kauf man Y ( 2005) A met hod t o derive smoke emission rat es f rom MODI S Fir e
Radiat ive Energy Measurement s. I EEE Transact i on Geosci ences & Remot e Sensing, 43: 2636- 2649
46
Smit h AMS, Woost er MJ ( 2005) , Remot e classif icat ion of head and backf ire t ypes f rom MODI S
f ire r adiat ive power observat ions. I nt ernat ional Journal of Wildland Fir e. 14, 249- 254.
47
Freeborn PH et al. ( 2008) Relat ionships bet ween energy r elease, f uel mass loss, and t race gas
and aerosol emissions during laborat ory biomass f ires. J. Geophys. Res. , 113, D01102
2- 85
I n Ti er 1, emi ssi ons of CO
2
from dead organi c mat t er are assumed t o be zero in forest s
t hat ar e burnt , but not ful ly dest royed by fi re. I f t he fi re i s of suffi ci ent int ensi t y t o
dest roy a port ion of t he forest st and, under Ti er 1 met hodol ogy, t he carbon cont ai ned in
t he kill ed biomass i s assumed t o be i mmedi at el y rel eased t o t he at mosphere. Thi s Ti er 1
si mpli fi cat i on may resul t in an overest i mat ion of act ual emi ssions in t he year of t he fi re,
if t he amount of biomass carbon dest royed by t he fi re i s great er t han t he amount of
dead wood and li t t er carbon consumed by t he fi re. Non-CO
2
greenhouse gas emi ssi ons
are est i mat ed f or al l fire si t uati ons. Under Ti er 1, non- CO
2
emi ssi ons are best est i mat ed
usi ng t he act ual fuel consumption provi ded i n AFOLU Tabl e 2.4, and appropri at e
emi ssi on fact ors ( Tabl e 2.5) (i .e., not incl udi ng newl y kill ed biomass as a component of
t he fuel consumed) .
For Forest Land convert ed t o ot her l and uses, organi c mat t er burnt i s deri ved from bot h
newl y fel l ed veget at i on and exi sting dead or gani c mat t er, and CO
2
emi ssi ons should be
report ed. I n t hi s si t uat ion, est i mat es of t ot al fuel consumed ( AFOLU Tabl e 2.4) can be
used t o est i mat e emi ssi ons of CO
2
and non- greenhouse gases using equat ion 2.5.2.
I n t he case of Ti er 1 cal cul ati ons, AFOLU Tabl es 2.4 through 2.6 provi de t he all t he
defaul t val ues of Mb [ t / ha] , Cf [ t / t ] and Gef [ g/ kg] t o be used for each f orest t ype
according t o t he fi re char act eri st i cs. Ti er 2 met hods employ t he same general approach
as Ti er 1 but make use of more refined count ry- deri ved emi ssion fact ors and/ or more
refined est i mat es of fuel densi ti es and combust i on fact ors t han t hose provi ded in the
defaul t t abl es. Ti er 3 met hods ar e more comprehensi ve and i nclude consi derat i ons of t he
dynami cs of fuel s ( biomass and dead organi c mat t er) .
2. 5. 4 Mapping fire f rom space
2.5 .4.1 Syst ems for observing and mapping fire
Fi re moni t oring from sat el li t es fall s i nt o t hree pri mary cat egori es, det ect i on of act i ve
fi res, mappi ng of post fi re burned areas (f i re scars) and fi re charact eri zat i on (e.g. fi re
severi t y, energy r el eased) . For t he purposes of emi ssion est i mat ion we are pri maril y
int erest ed i n the l at t er t wo cat egori es. Nonet heless, rat her t han for emi ssion invent ori es,
t he det ect ion of act i ve fi res may be useful in t erms of assessi ng fi re hi st ory and t he
effect i veness of REDD+ rel at ed fi re management act i vi ti es. Sat elli t e dat a can al so
cont ri but e t o earl y warni ng syst ems for fire (provi ding i nformat i on on veget at i on t ype
and condi tion, and combi ning i t i nto fire danger r at i ng) and t o vali dat e fire ri sk
assessment syst ems whi ch can t hen be used t o bet t er manage fire but t hese aspect s
would fal l beyond t he scope of t hi s chapt er. Sat elli t e syst ems for Eart h Obser vat i on ar e
current l y provi di ng dat a wi t h a wi de range of spat i al resoluti ons. Usi ng t he common
t erminol ogy, t he resolution can be cl assi fi ed as:
 Fi ne or Hyperspat i al (1- 10 met er pi xel si ze) . Exampl es: I konos, , Qui ck Bi rd,
SPOT-5 HRG, Formosat
 Moderat e or Hi gh Resol ution
48
: pi xel si ze from 10 t o 100 met ers. Exampl e: SPOT-
4 HRG, Landsat TM/ ETM, CBERS MMRS
 Coarse resolution: pi xel si ze over 100 met er s. Exampl es: MODI S, MERI S, SPOT-
VGT, AVHRR
Al t hough st il l belongi ng t o the resear ch domain, SAR radar dat a have a pot ent i al for
compl ement i ng opti cal dat a in envi ronment s wit h persi st ent cl oud cover, such as some
boreal and t ropi cal regi ons,


48
Tradit ionally Landsat and SPOT dat a have been r ef erred t o as ‘high’ spat ial resolut ion. The use
of t he t erm moderat e resolut ion t o include Landsat class observat ion is a relat ively new
development but is not common in t he lit erat ure.
2- 86
The wi de range of possi bl e REDD+ fi re appli cat i ons pose di fferent requi rement t o t he
sat elli t e dat a used t o assess t he f i re act i vi t y. Compi ling nat ional fire emi ssion
invent ori es, moni t ori ng t he changes i n fi re seasonali t y and pat t erns due t o fi re
management or assessi ng t he area affect ed by fire in a prot ect ed forest ed area are all
act i vi ti es t hat mi ght fall under REDD+ fi re, and t hat can be support ed by sat elli t e dat a
and product s. However, t he t ype of i nformat i on needed i s di fferent and can be provi ded
by different combinat ions of t he avai l abl e eart h observat ion sat elli t es.
Whil e i n pri nci pl e onl y hyperspat i al and, t o some ext ent , hi gh resoluti on dat a can provi de
t he sub- hect are mappi ng requi red for local scal e REDD+ appli cat ions, t he t r adeoffs
bet ween spat i al , radi omet ri c, spect ral and t emporal resol ution of sat el lit e syst ems need
t o be t aken int o account . Hi gher resolut ion i mages have a l ow t emporal resolut ion (15-
20 days i n the case of Landsat - cl ass sensors) and non- syst emat i c acqui si ti on ( especi all y
t he hyperspat i al sensors) . Combined wi t h mi ssing dat a from t hese opti cal syst ems due
t o cl oud cover, t he dat a avai l abili t y of each sensor t aken i ndi vi duall y i s, in most if not all
ci rcumst ances, i nadequat e t o moni tor an inherent l y mul ti- t emporal phenomenon li ke
fi re. Provi ded t hat t he burned ar eas are vi si bl e for a si gnifi cant period of ti me ( at l east
one or t wo mont hs) , combi ning dat a f rom more t han one sensor can provi de suffi ci ent
cover age for hi gh resoluti on mapping of sub- cont inent al areas; par agr aph 2.5.6.1
present s an exampl e based on t he cat ast rophi c fi res of 2007 i n Greece. The recent
avail abil it y of I RS AWi FS dat a wi t h 3- 5 acqui si ti ons each mont h at c. 60m resol ution
rai ses t he possi bili t y of increased t emporal resolut ion at moder at e/ hi gh spat i al
resoluti on. The DMC const ell ati on al so provi des a pot ent i al l y useful dat a source, wi t h
i mproved t emporal resoluti on and hi gh spat i al resol ution, al though t he dat a i s l i mi t ed t o
t he vi si bl e and near i nfrared bands of t he spect r um.
Moreover, for t echnologi cal and commer ci al reasons hyperspat i al sensors ar e not opt i mal
for fi e moni tori ng: they acqui re dat a al most exclusi vel y i n t he vi si bl e and near i nfrared
wavel engt hs, and do not have t he short wave i nf rared, mi d-infrared and t hermal infrared
spect ral bands requi red for mapping act i ve fi res and burned areas and f or t hei r
char act eri zat i on.
Conversel y, coarse resolution syst ems do not have t he spat i al resol ution required for
sub-hect ar e mappi ng (as an exampl e, a si ngl e nadi r pi xel from MODI S cover s 6.25 t o
100 ha dependi ng on t he band) , but t hei r dail y t emporal resoluti on and mul ti spect ral
capabilit i es have al lowed i n recent year s t he devel opment of sever al fi re-rel at ed gl obal ,
mul ti annual product s. These product s mi ght not i mmedi at el y sat i sf y t he requi rement s for
compi ling det ai l ed emi ssi on invent ori es, but t hey ar e a val uabl e source of informat i on
part i cul arl y for l arge ar eas and can be i nt egrat ed wi th higher resol ution dat a t o produce
burned ar ea maps at t he desi red resol uti on. Sect ion 2.5.3.4 descri bes possi bl e st r at egi es
for t he combi ned use of moderat e resolution product s and hi gh resolution i magery.
2.5 .4.2 Available fire relat ed product s
The l ast f ew year s have seen a consi derabl e effort in t he product ion of syst emat i c, global
or conti nent al scal e fire moni t ori ng product s, and i n t he coordinat i on bet ween t he
inst i t uti ons whi ch have been devel oping t hose
49
. Tabl e 2.5.1 report s some of t he most
commonl y used of t hose product s, whi ch are deri ved from coarse resolution syst ems. At
count ry l evel (e.g. USA, Port ugal ) there ar e syst emat i c post - fi re assessment syst em
based on hi gh resol ution sat ell it e dat a ( Landsat ) ; at t he moment , however, no
syst emat i c, hi gh resol ution burned area dat aset i s avail abl e at cont inent al scal e - or a
fort iori at global scal e.
Fi re moni tori ng product s are deri ved from dat a acqui red by sat el li t es ei t her in pol ar or
geost at ionary orbi t . Pol ar-orbi t ing sat el li t es have t he advant age of global coverage and


49
Arino O, et al. ( 2001) , Burn Scar mapping Met hods, in ‘Global and Regional Veget at ion Fire
Monit oring f rom Space’ ( eds. Ahern F, Goldammer JG, Just ice C) , pages 105- 124.
2- 87
t ypi call y hi gher spat i al resoluti on ( currentl y 250 m - 1km) . Mul ti - year global act i ve f i re
dat a records have been generat ed from t he Advanced Very Hi gh Resolution Radi omet er
( AVHRR) , t he Along- Track Scanni ng Radiomet er ( ATSR) , and t he Moderat e Resol ution
I magi ng Spect roradiomet er ( MODI S) . The heri t age AVHRR and ATSR sensors were not
desi gned for act i ve fi re moni t ori ng and t heref ore provi de l ess accurat e det ect ion;
nonet hel ess, t he Worl d Fi re Atl as
50
, based on ni ght ti me ATSR dat a, i s t he l ongest
consi st ent act i ve fi re record current l y avail abl e, wi t h global dat a from 1997 t o t he
present day. MODI S and t he fut ure AVHRR fol low- on VI I RS ( Vi si bl e I nfrared I mager
Radi omet er Sui t e) as well as t he fut ure European Sent inel 3 SLSTR (Sea and Land
Surface Temper at ure Radiomet er) , have dedi cat ed bands for fire moni t oring. These
sensors, fl own on sun- synchronous sat el li t e pl at forms provi de onl y a few dail y snapshot s
of fire act i vi t y at about t he same l ocal ti me each day, sampling t he di urnal cycl e of fi re
act i vi t y. The VI RS (Vi si bl e and I nfrared Scanner) on t he sun- asynchronous TRMM
( Tropi cal Rai nfall Measuri ng Mi ssion) sat elli t e covers t he ent i re di urnal cycl e but wi t h a
longer revi si t ing ti me.
Geost at i onary sat ell i t es al low for act i ve fi re monit oring at a hi gher t emporal frequency
( 15-30 mi nut es) on a hemi spheri c basi s, but t ypi cal l y at coar ser spat i al resol uti on
( approx 2- 4 km) . Regi onal act i ve fi re product s exi st based on dat a from t he
Geost at i onary Operat i onal Environment al Sat elli t e ( GOES) and METEOSAT Second
Generat ion ( MSG) Spinning Enhanced Vi si bl e and I nfrar ed I mager ( SEVI RI ) . A maj or
int ernat ional eff ort i s bei ng undert aken by GOFC- GOLD t o devel op a gl obal syst em of
geost at ionary fi re moni toring that wi ll combine dat a from a number of addi ti onal
operat i onal sensors t o provi de near- global coverage.
Sever al global burned area product s exi st f or speci fi c years and a number of mul t i - year
burned ar ea product s have been recent l y rel eased (MODI S, L3JRC, GLOBCARBON) based
on coarse r esol ution sat elli t e dat a. The onl y long t erm ( 1997 onwards) burned ar ea
dat aset current l y avail abl e ( GFED2) i s part l y based on act i ve fi re det ect i ons. Direct
est i mat i on of carbon emi ssi ons from t hese act i ve fi re det ect ions or burned area has
i mproved recent l y, wi th t he use of biogeochemical model s, but yet fail s t o capt ure fine-
scal e fi re processes due t o coarse resol ution of the model s.
The pot enti al research, poli cy and management appli cat i ons of sat elli t e product s pl ace a
hi gh priori t y on provi ding st at ement s about t hei r accuracy ( Mori set t e et al . 2006) , and
t hi s appli es t o fi re rel at ed product s, i f used in t he REDD+ cont ext . I nt er- compari son of
product s made wi t h di fferent sat ell i t e dat a and/ or al gori t hms provi des an indi cat i on of
gross di fferences and possi bl y insi ght s i nt o t he reasons for t he differences. However
product compari son wi th independent refer ence dat a i s needed t o det ermi ne accuracy
51
.
Whil e al l t he mai n act i ve fire and burned area product s have been part i all y validat ed
wi th i ndependent dat a, syst emat i c, global scal e, mul ti annual vali dat ion and syst emat i c
reporti ng has yet t o be achi eved.


50
Arino O, Piccolini I ( 2001) Development and Test ing of Algorit hms f or a Global Burnt Area
Product f rom ERS ATSR-2, Proceedings I GARSS’2000, Vol. 1: 304- 306.
51
Just ice CO et al. ( 2000) Development s in t he ' validat ion' of sat ellit e sensor product s f or t he
st udy of land surf ace. I nt ernat ional Journal of Remot e Sensing, 21: 3383- 3390.
2- 88

Table 2.5 .1. Li st of operat i onal and syst emat i c continent al and gl obal act i ve fi re and
burned area moni toring syst ems, deri ved from sat ell i t e dat a.
Sat ellit e- based fire
monit oring
I nformation and dat a access
Global burnt areas 2000- 2007:
L3JRC ( EC Joint Research
Cent er)
ht t p: / / bioval. j rc. ec. europa. eu/ product s/ burnt _areas_L3JRC
/ GlobalBurnt Areas2000-2007. php
MODI S act ive f ires and burned
areas ( Universit y of Maryland
/ NASA)
ht t p: / / modis-f ire. umd. edu
FI RMS: Fire I nf ormat ion f or
Resource Management Syst em
( Universit y of Maryland
/ NASA/ UN FAO)
ht t p: / / maps. geog. umd. edu/ f irms
Globcarbon product s ( ESA) ht t p: / / www. fao. org/ gt os/ t copj s4. ht ml
World Fire At las ( ESA) ht t p: / / dup. esrin. esa. int / ionia/ wfa/ index. asp
Global Fire Emissions Dat abase
( GFED2) - mult i-year burned
area and emissions By NASA
ht t p: / / ess1. ess.uci. edu/ %7Ej randers/ dat a/ GFED2/

TRMM VI RS f ire product (NASA) f t p: / / disc2.nascom. nasa. gov/ dat a/ TRMM/ VI RS_Fire/ dat a/
Met eosat Second Generat ion
SEVI RI f ire monit oring
( EUMETSAT)
ht t p: / / www. eumet sat . int / Home/ Main/ Access_t o_Dat a/ Met e
osat _Met eorological_Product s/ Product _List / index. ht m# FI R
Experiment al Wildf ire
Aut omat ed Biomass Burning
Algorit hm: GOES WF-ABBA
( Universit y of Wisconsin-
Madison / NOAA)
ht t p: / / cimss.ssec. wisc. edu/ goes/ burn/ wf abba.ht ml
Wide Area Monit oring
I nformat ion Syst em (WAMI S)
port al –Advanced Fire
inf ormat ion Syst em ( CSI R,
Meraka I nst it ut e Sout h Af rica)
ht t p: / / www. wamis.co. za/

2.5 .4.3 Act ive fire versus burned area product s
Act i ve fi re product s provi de t he l ocat i on of all fi res act i vel y burning at t he overpass t i me.
The short persi st ence of t he si gnal of act i ve fi res means t hat act i ve fires product s ar e
ver y sensi ti ve t o t he dai l y dynami cs of biomass burni ng, and t hat i n si tuat i ons where t he
fi re front moves qui ckl y, t here wi ll be an under- sampling of fire dynami cs. Based on t he
physi cal charact eri st i cs of t he sensor, on t he charact eri st i cs of t he fire and on t he
al gori t hm used for t he det ect i on, a mi ni mum fire si ze i s requi red t o t ri gger det ect i on.
Thi s si ze i s orders of magni t ude small er t han t he pi xel si ze: as an exampl e, for t he
MODI S act i ve fi re product ( Giglio et al , 2003) fi res coveri ng around 100m
2
wi t hin t he
1km
2
pi xel have a 90% probabil i t y of det ect ion in t emperat e deci duous forest .
Conversel y, burned ar ea product s expl oi t t he change of spect r al si gnat ure i nduced by
t he fi re on veget at i on, whi ch - unlike t he si gnal of act i vel y burning fi res - i s persi st ent for
a peri od ranging from weeks ( i n savannas and grassl ands) t o years ( i n boreal forest s) .
Burned ar ea product s gener all y requi re t hat a si gni fi cant portion of t he pi xel (in t he
order of hal f of t he pi xel ) i s burned t o l ead t o det ect i on. I n some cases t hi s causes a
si gni fi cant underest i mat i on by burned area product s, especi al l y in forest s, where fi res
2- 89
due t o cl eari ngs and deforest at i on are small er t han t he pi xel si ze of coar se r esol ution
syst ems. I n many of t hese cases, fi res resul ting i n burned areas t oo small for det ect ion
are l arge enough to be det ect ed by act i ve fi re product s. I n al l cases, user s shoul d not
use act i ve fi re det ect i ons di rect l y i n area cal cul at ions wi thout proper cali brat ion, because
t he ar ea affect ed by t he fi re can be si gni fi cantl y small er t han t he pi xel si ze.
The syst emat i c compari son of Act i ve Fi res and Burned Area product s
52
shows t hat ,
dependi ng on t he t ype of envi ronment , t he rat i o bet ween t he number of act i ve fi re
det ect i ons and burned area det ect ions changes si gni fi cant l y, wi t h more burned area
det ect i ons in grassl ands, savannas and open woodl ands, and more act i ve fi re det ect i ons
t han burned area det ect i ons in closed forest ecosyst ems.
For t hei r physi cal nat ure, surface f i res generall y cannot be det ect ed by burned ar ea
al gori t hms, unl ess t he crown densi t y i s very low. I f t he crown of t he t rees i s not
affect ed, i n closed forest t he change i n refl ect ance as det ect ed by t he sat elli t e i s not
l arge enough t o be det ect ed. Act i ve fi re det ect i on al gori thms rel y inst ead on t he t hermal
si gnal due t o t he energy r el eased by t he f i re and can more oft en det ect surface fi res;
however, obscurat i on by non- burning t ree canopy st il l remai ns an i ssue.
Figure 2.5 .1. Temporal compari son bet ween ATSR Worl d Fi re Atl as ni ght t i me act i ve fi re
count s and Gl obcarbon burned area est i mat e i n km
2
. Whi l e t he t wo product s di spl ay t he
same t emporal pat t ern, t he areal ext ent i s di fferent by al most an order of magni t ude,
hi ghlighti ng t he under- sampl ing i ssues of act i ve fi re product s.



52
Tansey KJ et al. ( 2008) Relat ionship bet ween MODI S f ire hot spot count and burned area in a
degraded t ropical f orest swamp forest in Cent ral Kalimant an, I ndonesia, Journal of Geophysical
Research, 113: D23112
2- 90
Figure 2.5.2. Scat t er pl ot s of t he mont hl y proporti ons of 40x40km cell s l abel ed as
burned by t he 1km act i ve fi re det ect i ons plot t ed agai nst t he proportion l abel ed as
burned by t he 500m burned area product , for four t ree cover cl ass ranges, gl oball y,
period Jul y 2001 t o June 2002. Onl y cell s wi t h at l east 90% of t hei r area meet i ng t hese
t ree cover r ange cri t eri a and cont ai ning some proporti on burned in ei t her t he act i ve fi re
or t he mont hl y burned area product s ar e plot t ed. The Theil -Sen regression l ine i s pl ot t ed
in red; t he whi t e- blue l ogari t hmi c color scal e il lust rat es t he frequency of cel l s having t he
same speci fi c x and y axi s proportion val ues ( Source: Roy et al , 2008) .


St andard act i ve fire product s are gener al l y avail abl e wi t hin 24 hours of sat elli t e
overpass. Some sat elli t e- based fi re moni t oring syst ems, i ncluding t hose based on t he
processi ng of di rect r eadout dat a, provi de near - real ti me i nformat i on. For exampl e, t he
Fi re I nformat i on for Resource Management Syst em (FI RMS) , i n col l aborat ion wi t h MODI S
Rapi d Response uses dat a t r ansmi t t ed by t he MODI S inst rument on board NASA’s Terr a
and Aqua sat elli t es avai l abl e wi t hi n t wo hours of acqui si tion
53
. These dat a ar e processed
t o produce maps, i mages and t ext fi l es, i ncluding ‘fi re email al ert s’ pert ai ni ng t o act i ve
fi re locat i ons t o noti fy prot ect ed ar ea, and nat ural resource managers of fi res in t hei r
area of i nt erest .
Burned ar ea product s ar e i nst ead avail abl e wi t h days or weeks aft er t he fi re event ,
because t he det ect i on i s generall y performed using a t i me seri es of pre-fi re and post -fi re
dat a.
2. 5. 5 Using exist ing products
Fi re i s oft en associ at ed wi t h forest cover change ( deforest at i on, forest degr adat ion)
ei t her t hrough deliberat e human fi re use or wil dfi re event s. As has been descr i bed


53
Davies DK et al. ( 2009) . Fire I nf ormat ion f or Resource Management Syst em: Archiving and
Dist ribut ing MODI S Act ive Fire Dat a. I EEE Transact ions Geoscience & Remot e Sensing 47: 72- 79.
Proportion Burned Area
P
r
o
p
o
r
t
i
o
n

A
c
t
i
v
e

F
i
r
e
7
15
104
236
>334
0
0% <= Tree Cover <= 10%
61,523 cells
mean tree
cover = 3.84 %
Slope = 0.173
Intercept = 0.002
r = 0.71
Proportion Burned Area
P
r
o
p
o
r
t
i
o
n

A
c
t
i
v
e

F
i
r
e
7
15
104
236
>334
0
0% <= Tree Cover <= 10%
61,523 cells
mean tree
cover = 3.84 %
Slope = 0.173
Intercept = 0.002
r = 0.71
3
5
15
24
>29
0
10% < Tree Cover <= 30%
417 cells
mean tree
cover = 22.5 %
Slope = 0.359
Intercept = 0.006
r = 0.87
P
r
o
p
o
r
t
i
o
n

A
c
t
i
v
e

F
i
r
e
Proportion Burned Area
3
5
15
24
>29
0
10% < Tree Cover <= 30%
417 cells
mean tree
cover = 22.5 %
Slope = 0.359
Intercept = 0.006
r = 0.87
P
r
o
p
o
r
t
i
o
n

A
c
t
i
v
e

F
i
r
e
Proportion Burned Area
6
13
78
168
>233
0
30% < Tree Cover <= 60%
2,197 cells
mean tree
cover = 43.2 %
P
r
o
p
o
r
t
i
o
n

A
c
t
i
v
e

F
i
r
e
Proportion Burned Area
6
13
78
168
>233
0
30% < Tree Cover <= 60%
2,197 cells
mean tree
cover = 43.2 %
P
r
o
p
o
r
t
i
o
n

A
c
t
i
v
e

F
i
r
e
Proportion Burned Area
10
28
296
811
>1242
0
60% < Tree Cover <= 100%
1,403 cells
mean tree
cover = 76.2 %
Slope = 2.276
Intercept = 0.002
r = 0.67
P
r
o
p
o
r
t
i
o
n

A
c
t
i
v
e

F
i
r
e
Proportion Burned Area
10
28
296
811
>1242
0
60% < Tree Cover <= 100%
1,403 cells
mean tree
cover = 76.2 %
Slope = 2.276
Intercept = 0.002
r = 0.67
P
r
o
p
o
r
t
i
o
n

A
c
t
i
v
e

F
i
r
e
Proportion Burned Area
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
Slope = 0.562
Intercept = 0.006
r = 0.65
2- 91
above, sat ell i t e dat a can be used t o det ect forest fi res and map t he r esul ting burned
area.
The coarse r esolution product s of Tabl e 2. 5.1 provi de a syst emat i c coverage for t he past
10 to 15 year s, and ar e speci fi call y desi gned for sub- conti nent al t o gl obal fi re
moni tori ng. Hence, i f t hey ar e di rect l y sui t abl e for st udyi ng t he fire regi me i n t he fire –
prone ecosyst ems wi t h more t han 10% t ree cover whi ch coul d be consi dered as f orest ,
dependi ng on t he defini tion adopt ed. Fi gure 2.5.3 shows an exampl e of fire frequency
deri ved for Northern Aust ral i a from 9 years of MODI S burned area dat a.
Figure 2.5.3 . Fire frequency for Nort hern Aust ralia, deri ved f rom MODI S burned
area dat a. The color indi cat es t he number of times a pi xel was det ect ed as burned i n t he
2000-2009 peri od, from 1 ( purpl e) t o 12 ( red) using a rainbow colour scal e.


Bot h the i nformat ion on fire frequency and on t he fi re seasonali t y can be effect i vel y
ret ri eved from t he exi st ing act i ve fi re and burned area product . Thi s i nformat i on i s
essent i al for assessi ng t he emi ssi ons due t o a part i cul ar fi re regi me: as shown by
Koront zi et al . (2004) , the emi ssi on coeffi ci ent s of equat i on 2.5.1 change t hroughout t he
season, as a funct i on of t he fuel conditi ons. Fi re management programs can l ead t o
decr eases i n t he t ot al area burnt , t ypi call y t hrough a combinat ion of prescri bed burning,
fi re prevent ion and - t o a l esser ext ent - fi re suppressi on. I f t here i s al so a shi ft in t he
seasonali t y of fire, t he emi ssion coef fi ci ent s will al so change. I f a reduct ion in area
burned i s accompani ed by an i ncrease of t he emi ssi on coeffi ci ent s, t he net resul t on
emi ssi ons mi ght be negat i ve or posi ti ve dependi ng on t he rel at i ve vari at ion of the t wo
t erms. The seasonal vari at ion of emi ssi on coeffici ent s hasn’t been st udi ed syst emat i call y
for all t he fi re prone ecosyst ems: t he pot ent i al for i mpl ement i ng REDD+ programs based
on fire management makes t hi s st udy a resear ch priori t y for t he next year s. The 10 t o
15 years hi st ori cal ti me seri es avail abl e from remot e sensing can be used for as a
basel i ne for t he pre-management emi ssi ons, whil e t he real -t i me dat a coul d be used t o
char act eri ze t he eff ect i veness of t he fire management int ervent ions.
2- 92
Figure 2.5. 4. Large fi re i n an open Eucal ypt us forest i n Sout h East Aust r ali a, Oct ober
2002. The ground fi re i s onl y part i al l y det ect ed by t he coar se/ moder at e resol ution
MODI S product s ( t op row) . On t he basi s of t he i nformat ion gi ven by such product s i t i s
possi bl e t o sel ect t he t i me and locat i on for higher resoluti on i magery ( Landsat ETM+
dat a, bot t om row) t hat allows mappi ng burned area wi t h c. 0.1 ha spat i al resol ution.

For local scal e appli cat ions t he comput at ion of t he t ot al emi ssi ons usi ng the i ndirect
approach of Equat i on 2.5.1 requires burned area maps at a spat i al resol ution whi ch i s
not currentl y provi ded by any of t he aut omat i c syst ems of Tabl e 2.5.1. Furt hermore, t he
areas burned must be charact eri zed in t erms of fi re behavi or ( surface fi res, crown fires)
and i n t erms of l and use change ( fi res i n forest remai ning forest , fi res rel at ed t o
deforest at i on) . Thi s i nformat i on i s al so not routi nel y avail abl e as anci ll ary informat i on of
t he syst emat i c global and cont i nent al product s.
On t he other hand, syst ems of t he Landsat cl ass - or hi gher resolution - do provi de t he
requi red spat i al resol ution, but t here are currentl y no syst emat i c product s using t hose
dat a openl y avail abl e at gl obal or continent al scal e. A few count ri es ( USA, Port ugal ) have
i mpl ement ed Landsat - based burned ar ea assessment syst ems, but t he est abli shment of
si mil ar syst ems st ill poses t echni cal chall enges and r equi res considerabl e i nvest ment s,
because of i ssues rel at ed t o dat a avail abili t y ( sat el li t e overpass, cloudi ness, r ecei ving
st at i ons) and comput at ional requirement s.
A promi si ng avenue for produci ng burned area i nformat i on wi t h the requi red
char act eri st i cs for GHG emi ssi on comput at i on i n a cost - eff ect i ve way coul d be t he
int egrat ed use of hi gh resolution i magery and coarse resolution syst emat i c product s. The
opening of t he Landsat ar chi ve fr ee of charge, and t he expandi ng net work of recei ving
st at i ons of free dat a l i ke CBERS make i t possi ble t o use ext ensi vel y hi gh resolution dat a
for refi ning t he coar se r esol ut ion fire i nformat i on avail abl e, al so free of charge, as part of
2- 93
t he syst emat i c product s. The coarse resol ution product s can be used f or t he syst emat i c
moni tori ng of fire act i vi t y at nat ional scal e: when act i ve fi res and burned areas ar e
det ect ed i n areas of pot ent i al i nt erest for deforest at i on or for forest degr adat ion, t hey
coul d be compl ement ed by acquiri ng moderat e and hi gh resolution i magery coveri ng t he
spat i al ext ent and t he exact t i me peri od of t he burni ng. Through vi sual int erpret at ion ( or
usi ng anot her appropri at e aut omat i c or semi - aut omat i c cl assi fi cat ion t echni que) of t he
moderat e and hi gh resoluti on dat a, and using t he coar se r esol uti on product s as anci ll ary
dat aset s, i t i s possi bl e t o produce i n a t i mel y and cost effect i ve manner t he hi gh
resoluti on burned area maps requi red by Equat i on 2.5.1. ( Fi gure 2.5.4) .
Sat el lit e dat a can al so be used f or post fi re assessment : t he carbon bal ance af t er a fi re
event depends on whet her t here i s forest regrowt h, or conversion t o other use ( 2.1.3) .
Moni toring wi th higher resol ution i magery over t i me t he l ocat ion of fire det ect ions, al lows
underst andi ng i f the fi re l ed t o l and cover change ( forest degr adat i on, st and
repl acement ) and if l and use change occurred aft er t he f ire ( e.g. conver sion t o
agri cul ture). Fi gure 2.5.5 shows t he case of a l arge fi re in Mont ana ( USA) where Landsat
i mages acqui red one, t wo and t hree years aft er t he fi re can be used t o rul e out any
change of l and use f oll owing t he fire.
Figure 2. 5.5. Mult i- t emporal Landsat TM/ ETM+ imagery of a forest fire in
West ern Mont ana, USA. The fi rst i mage ( l eft ) i s acqui red shortl y aft er t he fire, and t he
ot her t wo at one year int erval s. The inspect ion of mul ti- t emporal i mager y aft er t he fi re
allows moni toring whet her l and cover and l and use changes occur aft er t he fi re.

Year 2 001 Year 2 002 Year 2003

2. 5. 6 Case st udies
2.5 .6.1 Mult i- sensor burned area mapping wit h high resolut ion dat a: t he RI SK-
EOS proj ect
The RI SK- EOS proj ect of t he European Space Agency st ar t ed i n 2003 under t he
framework of t he European Gl obal Moni t oring for Envi ronment and Securi t y ( GMES)
ini ti ati ve, wi t h t he obj ect i ve t o est abl i sh a net work of European servi ce provi ders for t he
provi si on of geo-informat i on servi ces i n support t o t he ri sk management of
met eorologi cal hazards. The Fi re component of RI SK- EOS proj ect feat ures as t he mai n
el ement , t he Burn Scar Mapping (BSM) servi ce, whi ch provi des seasonal mappi ng of
forest s and semi - nat ural burned ar eas at hi gh spat i al resolution ( mi ni mum mappi ng unit
of 1 to 3 ha) .
The maj or goal of t he BSM servi ce was t o provide nat i onal admi ni st rat i ons wi t h post - fi re
informat i on on t he veget at ed areas affect ed by wildfires i n order t o assess t he damages
and provi de a baseli ne for recovery and rest orat i on pl anning. These maps can al so be
used for est i mat i ng GHG emi ssions from bi omass burning. The BSM ser vi ce has been
2- 94
provi ded by di fferent suppli ers i n Port ugal , Spai n, Fr ance, I t al y and Gr eece and has been
harmoni zed across count ri es for a wi de upt ake by Medi t erranean public admini st rat i ons.

Figure 2.5 .6. Over vi ew of t he Burned areas over t he Pel oponnesus.


Due t o t hei r spect r al and spat i al resolutions, Landsat TM and ETM have been t he sensor s
most wi del y used t o map burnt ar eas i n RI SK-EOS. The hi gh ri sk rel at ed t o t he end of
t he Landsat sensors’ li fet i me has forced t he servi ce provi ders t o adapt t hei r product ion
chai n and use ot her sensors li ke SPOT- 4, Formosat - 2, I RS and ot her opti cal i mages
whi ch incl ude near i nfrared and red spect r al bands. However, t hese sensors have
li mi t at ions regardi ng the needed spect ral informat i on and t he full ext ended European
cover age ( e.g. Formosat ) and are not t he most sui t abl e sat ellit e sources for assessing
preci sel y burned areas ( l ack of SWI R bands) . The proj ect has provi ded concret e evi dence
t hat Space observat i ons offer advanced fi re scars mappi ng in t erms of cost and
accur acy, compar ed t o convent ional fi el d met hods and/ or aeri al phot o-i nt erpret at i on.
The resul t s have shown t hat sat elli t e- based mappi ng met hods repl ace t he convent i onal
met hods at an accuracy l evel far exceeding t he exi st ing mapping st andards est abli shed
by Forest r y Servi ces i n many Medi t erranean count ri es.
As an exampl e, RI SK- EOS was appl i ed i n Greece as a pilot proj ect during summer 2006
and t hen as an operat i onal mapping of al l forest fi res t hat occur bet ween May and
Oct ober 2007. I t provi ded a compl et e and homogeneous invent ory of burned ar eas i n
Greece, bot h i n t erms of speci fi cat i ons and accuracy. The maps have been del i vered t o
many Hell eni c publi c admi ni st rat ions. Di ff erent sat elli t e sensors have been used: Landsat
TM and SPOT- 4 over t he ent i re t erri tory for a 1ha mappi ng at 60m spat i al accuracy, and
FORMOSAT- 2 over t he Pel oponnesus regi on (most affect ed r egi on) for a 0.5 ha mapping
at 15m spat i al accuracy.
I n t ot al 193,656 ha have been burned during t he summer 2007. These maps have
allowed est i mat i ng t he ext ent of burned coni ferous, broadl eaved and mi xed forest s, of
nat ural past ures, of bush, of scl erophyl lous veget at i on and ot her nat ural areas.
Al l maps have been assessed by t he Gr eek Mini st ry of Rural Development and Food, wi t h
t he resul t s t hat t hi s admi ni st rat i on consi ders now Space observat ions as a uni que asset
for generat ing rel i abl e and st andardi zed est i mat ion of fi re damages at all admi ni st rat i ve
l evel s. The exploi t at ion of Very Hi gh Spat i al Resol ution observat i ons over t he region of
Pel oponnesus was ext remel y useful since i t i s t he onl y soluti on t o cope wi t h t he mapping
of hi ghl y compl ex affect ed zones and t o separ at e pr eci sel y t he forest ed l and from
agri cul tural l and and set t l ement s dest royed.
2- 95

Figure 2 .5.7. Burnt ar ea of Anci ent Ol ympia si t e ( 21,297 ha) , as det ect ed by a
FORMOSAT- 2 scene.



2.5 .6.2 Emission reduction t hrough fire management : t he WALFA proj ect
( Nort hern Aust ralia)
The West Arnhem Land Fi re Abat ement proj ect ( WALFA) i s an emi ssions reduct ion
proj ect i nvol ving an ar ea of approxi mat el y 28,000 km
2
i n West ern Arnhem Land ( Fi gure
2. 5.8) . Fi re i s an i mport ant di st urbance fact or affect i ng Aust rali an savanna dynami cs: i t
i s an ext remel y fi re- prone ecosyst em, wher e frequent low i nt ensi t y fi res burn t he grassy
underst ory but rarel y infli ct t ree mort ali t y. Unti l t he earl y t went i et h cent ury t he
abori ginal popul at ion used fire syst emat i cal l y as a way t o manage t he l andscape, but
when t hey were forced off t hei r l and aft er Worl d War I I t hese pract i ces wer e l argel y
abandoned. As a resul t , t he seasonali t y of fire has shi ft ed t o more frequent , severe, and
ext ensi ve l at e- season fires, wi t h negat i ve effect s on savanna st ruct ure, woody
popul ation dynami cs, l ong- t erm carbon biosequest r at i on and ecosyst em degr adat i on.

2- 96
Figure 2.5.8 . Locat i on of t he area cover ed by t he WALFA proj ect
54
The Arnhem Land
Pl at eau (i n yellow and orange) ri ses from t he savanna l owl ands (in green).


Lat e season fires l ead al so t o increased emi ssions, because of higher t ot al area burned
( earl y season fi res ar ea ar e pat chy and fragment ed, l at e season fi res are l ess so) and t o
hi gher combust i on compl et eness. Si nce 2004, t he WALFA proj ect has rei nt roduced an
earl y- season fi re regi me t hat , besi des t he ecologi cal advant ages, measurabl y reduces
at mospheri c emi ssi ons. Thi s reduct ion of fset s part of t he indust ri al emi ssions of pri vat e
compani es, whi ch provi de funds t o cover t he cost of t he fi re management pr act i ces
int roduced i n the cont ext of WALFA. I mport ant proj ect - scal e met hodologi cal
enhancement s t o Equat i ons 2.5.1 and 2. 5.2 i nclude expli ci t incorporat i on of t erms for
seasonali t y ( e.g. l eaf li t t er fuel s i ncrease under lat e season condi tions; di fferenti al effect s
on fire pat chi ness and combust i on compl et eness) and fi re severi t y (Russell - Smi t h et al .
2009). Recent r esearch ( unpubli shed) has est abli shed al so t hat , for t ypi cal Aust rali an
savanna fuel condi tions, emi ssion fact ors for t he Kyot o- account abl e greenhouse gases
CH
4
and N
2
O ar e equi val ent under peak earl y- and l at e- season burni ng scenari os.
2. 5. 7 Key references for Sect ion 2.5
Gi glio L, Descl oit res J, Just i ce, C.O., Kauf man YJ ( 2003) An Enhanced Cont ext ual Fi re
Det ect i on Al gori thm for MODI S. Remot e Sensing of Envi ronment , 87, 273-282.
Koront zi S, Roy DP, Just i ce CO, Ward DE ( 2004), Model ing and sensi ti vi t y anal ysi s of fi re
emi ssi ons in sout hern Afri can during SAFARI 2000, Remot e Sensi ng of Envi ronment ,
92: 255- 275
Lent il e LB, Holden ZA, Smi t h AMS, et al . ( 2006) Remot e sensi ng t echni ques t o assess
act i ve fi re charact eri sti cs and post - fi re effect s. I nt ernat ional Journal of Wil dland Fi re,
15, 319- 345.
Mori set t e JT, Bar et F, Li ang S ( 2006) Speci al issue on Global Land Product Val i dat ion,
I EEE Transact ions on Geoscience and Remot e Sensing. 44: 1695-1697.
Roy DP, Boschet t i L, Just i ce CO, Ju J ( 2008) The Coll ect ion 5 MODI S Burned Area
Product – Gl obal Eval uat i on by Compari son wi th t he MODI S Act i ve Fi re Product ,
Remot e Sensing of Envi ronment , 112: 3690–3707.


54
image f rom ht t p: / / www. savanna.org. au/ all/ walfa. ht ml
2- 97
Russell- Smi t h J, Murphy BP, Meyer CP, et al . ( 2009) I mprovi ng est i mat es of savanna
burning emi ssions for greenhouse accounti ng i n northern Aust rali a: li mi t at i ons,
chall enges, appli cat i ons. I nt ernat ional Journal of Wil dland Fire. 18: 1-18.
Seil er W, Crut zen PJ (1980), Esti mat es of gross and net fl uxes of carbon bet ween t he
bi osphere and t he at mospher e from biomass burni ng. Cli mat ic Change, 2: 207- 247
Van Der Werf GF, Rander son JT, Coll at z GJ, Gi glio L (2003), Carbon emi ssions f rom fires
in t ropi cal and subt ropi cal ecosyst ems. Global Change Biology, 9: 547–562
Woost er MJ, Rober t s G, Perry G, Kauf man YJ ( 2005) . Ret ri eval of biomass combust i on
rat es and t ot al s from fire radi at i ve power obser vat i ons: cali brat ion rel at i onshi ps
bet ween biomass consumpt i on and fi re radi at i ve energy r el ease. Journal of
Geophysical Research 110, D21111.

2.6 ESTI MATI ON OF UNCERTAI NTI ES
Suvi Monni, Joint Resear ch Cent re, I t al y
Mart i n Herol d, Wageningen Uni versi t y, The Net herl ands
Gi acomo Grassi , Joint Resear ch Cent re, I t al y
Sandra Brown, Winrock I nt ernat i onal , USA
2. 6. 1 Scope of chapter
Uncert ai nt y i s an unavoi dabl e at t ri but e of pract i cal l y any t ype of dat a i ncluding area and
carbon st ock est i mat es i n t he REDD+ cont ext . I dent ifi cat i on of t he sources and
quant ifi cat ion of t he magni t ude of uncert ai nt y will hel p t o bet t er underst and t he
cont ri bution of each par amet er t o t he over all accuracy and pr eci si on of t he REDD+
est i mat es, and t o priori ti ze effort s for t hei r furt her devel opment .
The proper manner of deal ing wi th uncert ai nt y i s fundament al in t he I PCC and UNFCCC
cont ext s: The I PCC defi nes invent ori es consi st ent wi t h good pract i ce as t hose whi ch
cont ai n nei t her over - nor underest i mat es so far as can be j udged, and in whi ch
uncert ai nti es ar e reduced as f ar as pract i cabl e.
I n t he accounti ng cont ext , i nformat i on on uncert ai nt y can be used t o devel op
conservat i ve REDD+ est i mat es
55
. Thi s princi ple has been i ncluded in t he REDD+
negoti at i ng t ext whi ch emphasi zes t he need “ t o deal wi th uncert ai nti es in est i mat es
ai mi ng to ensure t hat reduct i ons in emi ssions or i ncreases i n removal s are not over -
est i mat ed”
56
.
Building on t he I PCC Gui dance, t hi s sect i on aims t o provi de some basi c el ement s f or a
correct est i mat i on on uncert ai nti es. Aft er a bri ef expl anat i on of general concept s
( Sect i on 2.6.2) , some key aspect s linked t o t he quant i fi cat ion of uncert ai nt i es ar e
illust rat ed for bot h area and carbon st ocks ( Sect i on 2.6.3) . The sect ion concl udes wi t h
t he met hods avail abl e for combining uncert ai nties ( Sect ion 2.6.4) and wi th t he st andard
reporti ng and document at i on requirement s ( Sect i on 2.6.5) .


55
See Sect ion 4. 4 How t o deal wit h uncert aint ies: t he conser vat iveness approach
56
FCCC/ SBSTA/ 2008/ L. 12
2- 98
2. 6. 2 General concept s
The most i mport ant concept s needed for est i mat ion of uncert ai nti es ar e expl ained below.
Bias i s a syst emat i c error, whi ch can occur, e.g. due t o fl aws i n t he measurement s or
sampl ing met hods or due t o t he use of an emi ssi on fact or whi ch i s not sui t abl e for t he
case t o whi ch i t i s appli ed. Bi as means l ack of accuracy.
Accuracy i s t he agr eement bet ween t he t rue value and repeat ed measured observat i ons
or est i mat i ons of a quanti t y. Accuracy means l ack of bi as.
Random error descri bes t he random vari at i on above or below a mean val ue, and i s
inversel y proportional t o preci si on. Random er ror cannot be full y avoi ded, but can be
reduced by, for exampl e, i ncreasing t he sampl e si ze.
Precision i llust rat es t he l evel of agreement among repeat ed measurement s of t he same
quant i t y. Thi s i s represent ed by how closel y grouped t he resul t s from t he vari ous
sampl ing point s or pl ot s are. Preci si on i s i nversel y proportional t o random error.
Uncert aint y means t he l ack of knowl edge of the t rue val ue of a vari abl e, including bot h
bi as and random error. Thus uncert ai nt y depends on the st at e of knowl edge of t he
anal yst , whi ch depends, e.g., on t he quali t y and quant i t y of dat a avai l abl e and on t he
knowl edge of underl yi ng processes. Uncert aint y can be expr essed as a per cent age
confidence i nt erval rel at i ve t o t he mean val ue. For exampl e, i f the ar ea of forest l and
convert ed t o cropl and ( mean value) i s 100 ha, wi t h a 95% confi dence i nt erval ranging
from 90 t o 110 ha, we can say t hat t he uncert aint y in the area est i mat e i s ± 10%.
Confidence int erval i s a r ange t hat encloses t he t rue val ue of an unknown paramet er
wi th a speci fi ed confi dence ( probabi lit y) . I n t he cont ext of est i mat i on of emi ssions and
removal s under t he UNFCCC, a 95% confi dence int erval i s normall y used. The 95 percent
confidence i nt erval has a 95 percent probabil i t y of enclosi ng t he t rue but unknown val ue
of t he par amet er. The 95 per cent confi dence int erval i s encl osed by t he 2.5t h and 97.5t h
percent il es of t he probabilit y densi t y funct ion.
Correlat ion means dependency bet ween par amet ers. I t can be descri bed wi t h Pear son
correl at i on coeffi ci ent whi ch assumes val ues bet ween [ - 1, + 1] . Correl ati on coeffi ci ent of
+ 1 present s a perfect posi ti ve correl at ion, whi ch can occur for exampl e when t he same
emi ssi on fact or i s used for di fferent years. I n t he case t he vari abl es ar e i ndependent of
each ot her, t he correl at i on coeffi ci ent i s 0.
Trend descri bes t he change of emi ssi ons or removal s bet ween t wo poi nt s i n ti me. I n t he
REDD+ cont ext , t he t r end wi ll l ikel y be more i mport ant t hat t he absol ut e val ues.
Trend uncert aint y descri bes t he uncer t ai nt y in the change of emi ssi ons or removal s
(i .e. t r end) . Trend uncert ai nt y i s sensi ti ve t o t he correl at ion bet ween par amet er s used t o
est i mat e emi ssi ons or removal s in t he t wo years. Tr end uncert ai nt y i s expressed as
percent age poi nt s. For exampl e, if t he t rend i s + 5% and t he 95% confi dence i nt erval of
t he t rend i s + 3 t o + 7%, we can say t hat t r end uncert ai nt y i s ± 2% point s.
The above ment ioned concept s of bi as, accuracy, r andom error and pr eci si on can be
illust rat ed by an analogy wi t h bul l’s eye on a t arget . I n t hi s anal ogy, how t i ghtl y t he
dart s are grouped i s t he preci si on, how cl ose t hey ar e t o t he cent er i s t he accuracy.
Below in Fi gure 2.6.1 (A), t he poi nt s ar e cl ose t o t he cent er and ar e t herefore accurat e
(l acki ng bi as) but t hey ar e wi del y spaced and t herefore ar e i mpreci se. I n ( B) , the point s
are cl osel y grouped and t herefore are pr eci se (l acki ng random error) and but are far
from t he cent er and so ar e i naccurat e ( i .e bi ased). Fi nal l y, in ( C), t he point s are close t o
t he cent er and t i ghtl y grouped and are bot h accurat e and preci se.

2- 99
Figure 2 .6.1. I l lust rat i on of t he concept s of accuracy and preci sion.
( A) Accurat e but not preci se ( B) Preci se but not accurat e ( C) Accurat e and preci se


2. 6. 3 Quant ificat ion of uncert ai nt ies
The first st ep i n an uncert ai nt y anal ysi s i s t o identi fy t he pot enti al sources of uncert ai nt y.
These can be, for exampl e, measurement errors due t o human errors or errors in
cal i brat ion; modeling errors due t o inabili t y of t he model t o f ull y descri be t he
phenomenon; sampling errors due t o t oo small or unrepresent at i ve sampl e; or
defini tions or cl assi fi cat ions whi ch are erroneousl y used l eading t o doubl e- counting or
non- counti ng.
2.6 .3.1 Uncert ainties in area est imates
One way of est i mat ing t he act i vi t y dat a (i .e. ar ea of a l and cat egory) i s si mpl y t o report
t he ar ea as i ndi cat ed on t he map deri ved from remot e sensi ng. Whil e t hi s approach i s
common, i t fail s t o recogni ze t hat maps deri ved from remot e sensi ng cont ain
cl assi fi cat ion errors. There are many fact ors t hat cont ri but e t o errors i n remot e sensi ng
maps, and t hey are di scussed bel ow. A sui t abl e approach i s t o assess t he accur acy of
t he map and use t he resul t s of the accur acy assessment t o adj ust t he area est i mat es.
Such an approach account s for t he bi ases found i n the map and all ows for i mproved area
est i mat es. Most i mage cl assi fi cat ion met hods have par amet ers t hat can be t uned t o get
a reasonabl e amount of pi xel s i n each cl ass. A good t uni ng reduces t he bi as, but has a
cert ai n degree of subj ect i vi t y. Assessi ng t he margi n for subj ect i vi t y i s a necessary t ask.
An accuracy assessment usi ng a sampl e of hi gher qual i t y dat a shoul d be an i nt egral part
of any nat ional moni toring and accounting syst em. I f t he sampl e for t he hi gher quali t y
dat a i s st at i st i call y ri gorous ( e.g. : r andom, st r at ifi ed, syst emat i c), a cal i brat ion est i mat or
( or si mil ar) gi ves bet t er resul t s t han t he original survey. Chapt er 5 of I PCC Good Pract i ce
Gui dance 2003 provi des some r ecommendat i ons and emphasi zes t hat t hey shoul d be
quant ifi ed and reduced as far as pr act i cabl e.
For t he case of usi ng remot e sensi ng t o deri ve l and change act i vi t y dat a, t he accuracy
assessment should l ead t o a quant i t at i ve descripti on of t he uncert ai nt y of t he ar ea for
l and cat egori es and t he associ at ed change i n ar ea observed. Thi s may ent ail cat egory
speci fi c t hemat i c accuracy measures, confidence i nt erval s for t he area est i mat es, or an
adj ust ment of t he i ni ti al area st at i st i cs consideri ng known and quant i fi ed bi ases t o
provi de t he best est i mat e. Deri vi ng st at i st i cal ly robust and quanti t at i ve assessment of
uncert ai nti es i s a subst ant i al t ask and shoul d be an ul t i mat e obj ect i ve. Any val idat i on
should be approached as a process using “best effort s” and “ cont i nuous i mprovement ” ,
whi l e working t owards a compl et e and st at i st i call y robust uncert ai nt y assessment .
2.6 .3.1.1 Sources of error
Diff erent component s of t he moni t ori ng syst em affect t he quali t y of t he out comes. They
incl ude:
 t he qual i t y and sui t abili t y of t he sat elli t e dat a (i . e. i n t erms of spat i al , spect r al ,
and t emporal resolution) ,
2- 100
 t he i nt eroperabili t y of different sensors or sensor generat ions,
 t he radi omet ri c and geomet ri c preprocessi ng (i .e. correct geol ocat ion) ,
 t he cart ographi c and t hemat i c st andards ( i .e. l and cat egory defi ni ti ons and MMU) ,
 t he i nt erpret at i on procedure ( i .e. cl assi fi cat ion al gori t hm or vi sual i nt erpret at i on) ,
 t he post - processi ng of t he map product s (i .e. deali ng wi th no dat a val ues,
conversi ons, int egrat ion wi th di fferent dat a format s, e.g. vect or versus rast er) ,
and
 t he avail abili t y of reference dat a ( e.g. ground t rut h dat a) for eval uat ion and
cal i brat ion of t he syst em.
Gi ven t he experi ences from a vari et y of l arge- scal e l and cover moni t oring syst ems,
many of t hese error sources can be properl y addressed during t he moni t oring process
usi ng wi del y accept ed dat a and approaches:
 Sui t abl e dat a char act eri st i cs: Landsat - t ype dat a, for exampl e, have been proven
useful for nat i onal - scal e l and cover and l and cover change assessment s for
mini mal mappi ng uni t s (MMU’s) of about 1 ha. Temporal i nconsi st enci es from
seasonal vari at i ons t hat may l ead t o fal se change ( phenology) , and di fferent
illuminat i on and at mospheri c condi t ions can be r educed i n t he i mage sel ect i on
process by usi ng same- season i mages or, where avai l abl e, appl ying t wo i mages
for each t i me st ep.
 Dat a quali t y: Sui t abl e preprocessi ng qual it y for most r egions i s provi ded by some
sat elli t e dat a provi ders ( i .e. gl obal Landsat Geocover) . Geolocat ion and spect ral
qual i t y shoul d be checked wi t h avail abl e dat aset s, and r el at ed correct i ons ar e
mandat ory when sat ell it e sensors wi t h no or low geomet ri c and radi omet ri c
processi ng l evel s are used.
 Consi st ent and t r ansparent mappi ng: The same car t ographi c and t hemat i c
st andards ( i . defini tions) , and accept ed int erpret at i on met hods shoul d be appli ed
in a t ranspar ent manner using expert i nt erpret er s t o deri ve t he best nat i onal
est i mat es. Provi ding t he ini t i al dat a, i nt ermedi at e dat a product s, a document at i on
of all processi ng st eps int erpret at ion keys and t rai ning dat a al ong wi t h t he final
maps and est i mat es support s a t r ansparent consi derat i on of t he moni t oring
framework appli ed. Consi st ent mapping al so includes a proper t r eat ment of areas
wi th no dat a ( i e. from const rai nt s due t o cl oud cover) .
Consi dering t he appli cat i on of sui t abl e sat elli t e dat a and i nt ernat i onall y agreed,
consi st ent and t r ansparent moni t oring approaches, t he accuracy assessment shoul d
focus on provi ding measures of t hemat i c accuracy.
2.6 .3.1.2 Accuracy assessment , area est imat ion of land cover change
Communi t y consensus met hods exi st f or assessi ng t he accuracy of remot e sensi ng-
deri ved ( si ngl e- dat e) l and cover maps. The t echni ques i nclude assessi ng t he accuracy of
a map based on i ndependent reference dat a, and measures such as over all accuracy,
errors of omi ssi on ( error of excl udi ng an area from a cat egory t o whi ch i t does t rul y
belongs, i .e. ar ea underest i mat i on) and commi ssion ( error of incl uding an ar ea i n a
cat egory t o whi ch i t does not t rul y bel ong, i.e. ar ea over est i mat i on) by l and cover cl ass,
or errors anal yzed by r egion, and fuzzy accuracy (probabili t y of cl ass membershi p) , all of
whi ch may be est i mat ed by st at i st i cal sampli ng.
Whil e t he same basi c met hods used for accuracy assessment of l and cover can and
should be appli ed in t he cont ext of l and cover change, i t should be not ed t hat t here ar e
addi tional consi derat i ons. I t i s usual l y more compl i cat ed t o obt ai n sui t abl e, mul ti-
t emporal reference dat a of higher quali t y to use as t he basi s of t he accuracy
assessment ; in part i cul ar for hi st ori cal ti mes f rames. I t i s easi er t o assess l and cover
change errors of commi ssi on by exami ning areas t hat are i dent i fi ed as havi ng changed.
Because t he change cl asses are oft en small proporti ons of l andscapes and oft en
2- 101
concent rat ed in l imi t ed geographi c areas, i t i s more diffi cul t t o assess errors of omi ssi on
wi thin t he l arge area i dent i fi ed as unchanged. Errors in geo-locat i on of mul ti -t emporal
dat aset s, i nconsi st ent processi ng and anal ysi s, and any i nconsi st enci es i n cart ographi c
and t hemat i c st andards ar e exagger at ed i n change assessment s. The lowest quali t y of
avail abl e sat elli t e i magery wi ll det er mine t he accur acy of change r esul t s. Perhaps, l and
cover change i s ul ti mat el y rel at ed t o t he accuracy of forest / non- forest condi ti on at bot h
t he begi nning and end of sat el li t e dat a anal ysi s. However, in t he case of using t wo si ngl e
dat e maps t o deri ve l and cover change, t hei r indi vi dual themat i c error i s mul ti pli cat i ve
when used in combinat i on if i t may be assumed t hat t he errors of one map ar e
independent of errors in t he ot her map ( Full er et al . 2003) . Van Oort ( 2007) descri bes a
met hod for computi ng an upper bound for change accuracy from accuracy of t he si ngl e
dat e maps but wi t hout assuming i ndependence of errors at t he t wo dat es. These
probl ems are known and have been addr essed i n st udi es successfull y demonst rat i ng
accur acy assessment s f or l and cover change ( Lowell, 2001, St ehman et al ., 2003). I t
should al so be not ed, t hat r at her t han compar e independent l y produced maps from
di fferent dat es t o find change, i t i s al most al ways pref erabl e t o combine mul ti pl e dat es of
sat elli t e i mager y i nt o a si ngl e anal ysi s t hat i dent ifi es change di rect l y. Thi s subt l e poi nt i s
si gni fi cant , as change i s more rel i abl y i dentifi ed in t he mul ti -dat e i mage dat a t han
t hrough compari son of maps deri ved from indi vidual dat es of i magery.
2.6 .3.1.3 I mplement at ion element s for a robust accuracy assessment
For robust accuracy assessment of ei t her l and cover or l and cover change, t her e ar e
t hree pri nci pal st eps for a st at i st i call y ri gorous vali dati on: sampli ng desi gn, response
desi gn, and anal ysi s desi gn. An overvi ew of t hese el ement s of an accur acy assessment
are provi ded below, and f ull det ail s of t he communi t y consensus “ best pr act i ces” for
t hese st eps ar e provi ded i n St rahl er et al . (2006) .
Sample design
The sampling desi gn i s a prot ocol for sel ect i ng t he locat i ons at whi ch the refer ence dat a
are obt ai ned. A probabili t y sampli ng desi gn is t he pref erred approach and t ypi call y
combi nes ei t her si mpl e r andom or syst emat i c sampling wi t h clust er sampling ( depending
on t he spat i al correl at ion and t he cost of t he obser vat i ons) . Est i mat ors shoul d be
const ruct ed following t he princi pl e of consi st ent est i mat i on, and t he sampl ing st r at egy
should produce accuracy est i mat ors wi t h adequat e preci sion. The sampling desi gn
prot ocol incl udes speci fi cat i on of t he sampl e si ze, sampl e locat i ons and t he r efer ence
assessment uni t s (i .e. pi xel s or i mage blocks) . St rat i fi cat ion should be appli ed i n case of
rare cl asses ( i .e. for change cat egori es) and t o refl ect and account for rel evant gradi ent s
(i .e. ecoregions) or known fact ors infl uencing the accuracy of t he mappi ng process.
Syst emat i c sampl ing wi t h a random st art i ng point i s generall y more ef fi ci ent t han si mpl e
random sampl i ng and i s al so more t raceabl e. Sampling errors can be quant i fi ed wi th
st andard st at i st i cal formul as, al t hough unbi ased vari ance est i mat i on i s not possi bl e for
syst emat i c sampling and conservat i ve vari ance approxi mat i ons ar e t ypi call y
i mpl ement ed (i .e. conservat i ve in t he sense t hat t he est i mat ed vari ance i s hi gher t han
t he act ual vari ance) . Non- sampling or “ measurement ” errors are more di ffi cul t t o assess
and requi re cross- checki ng act i ons ( supervi sion on a sub- sampl e et c.) .
Response design
The response desi gn consi st s of t he prot ocol s used t o det ermi ne t he reference or ground
condi ti on l abel (or l abel s) and t he def ini tion of agreement for comparing t he map
l abel ( s) t o t he reference l abel (s) . Ref erence i nformat ion shoul d come from dat a of hi gher
qual i t y, i .e. ground observat ions or higher- resol uti on sat elli t e dat a. Consi st ency and
compat i bilit y in t hemat i c def i ni t ions and int erpret at i on i s requi red t o compare ref erence
and map dat a.
2- 102
Analysis design
The anal ysi s desi gn i ncl udes est i mat i on formulas and anal ysi s procedures for accuracy
reporti ng. A sui t e of st at i st i cal est i mat es are provi ded from compari ng reference and
map dat a. Common approaches ar e error mat ri ces, cl ass speci fi c accuraci es ( of
commi ssi on and omi ssion error) , and associ at ed vari ances and confidence int erval s.
2.6 .3.1.4 Use of accuracy assessment result s for area est imat ion
As indi cat ed above, all maps deri ved from remot e sensi ng incl ude errors, and i t i s t he
rol e of t he accuracy assessment t o charact eri ze t he frequency of errors for each cl ass.
Each cl ass may have errors of bot h omi ssi on and commi ssion, and in most si t uat i ons t he
errors of omi ssi on and commi ssion for a cl ass ar e not equal . I t i s possi bl e t o use t hi s
informat i on on bi as in t he map t o adj ust area est i mat es and al so t o est i mat e t he
uncert ai nti es ( confi dence i nt erval s) for t he ar eas for each cl ass. Adj ust i ng area
est i mat es on t he basi s of a ri gorous accuracy assessment r epresent s an i mprovement
over si mpl y report ing t he areas of cl asses as i ndi cat ed i n t he map. Since areas of l and
cover change ar e si gnifi cant dri vers of emi ssi ons, provi di ng t he best possi bl e est i mat es
of these areas ar e cri ti cal .
A number of met hods for usi ng t he resul t s of accur acy assessment s exi st i n t he
li t erat ure and from a pr act i cal perspect i ve t he di ff erences among t hem are not
subst ant i al . One rel at i vel y si mpl e yet robust approach i s provided by Card ( 1982) . Thi s
approach i s vi abl e when t he accuracy assessment sampl e desi gn i s ei t her si mpl e random
or st rat i fi ed random. I t i s rel at i vel y easy t o use and provi des t he equat i ons for
est i mat i ng confi dence i nt erval s for t he area est i mat es, a useful expli ci t charact eri zat i on
of one of t he key el ement s of uncert ai nt y in est imat es of GHG emi ssions.
2.6 .3.1.5 Considerat ions for implement at ion and report ing
The ri gorous t echni ques descri bed in t he previous sect i on heavil y rel y on probabili t y
sampl ing desi gns and t he avail abili t y of sui t abl e ref erence dat a. Al t hough a nat i onal
moni tori ng syst em has t o ai m for robust uncert ai nt y est i mat i on, a st at i st i cal approach
may not be achi evabl e or pract i cabl e, i n parti cul ar for moni toring hi st ori cal l and changes
(i .e. deforest at i on bet ween 1990- 2000) or in many devel oping count ri es.
I n t he earl y st ages of devel oping a nat i onal monit oring syst em, t he veri fi cat i on effort s
should hel p t o build confi dence i n t he approach. Growing experi ences ( i . e. i mproving
knowl edge of source and si gnifi cance of pot ent i al errors) , ongoing t echni cal
devel opment s, and evol vi ng nat ional capaci ti es will provi de continuous i mprovement s
and, t hus, successi vel y reduce t he uncert ai nt y i n t he l and cover and l and- cover change
area est i mat es. The moni t oring shoul d work backwards from a most recent refer ence
point t o use t he hi ghest quali t y dat a fi rst and all ow for progressi ve i mprovement i n
met hods. More ref erence dat a are usuall y availabl e for more recent t i me periods. I f no
t horough accuracy assessment i s possi bl e or pract i cabl e, i t i s recommended t o appl y t he
best sui t abl e mappi ng met hod i n a t r ansparent manner. At a mi ni mum, a consi st ency
assessment ( i .e. reint erpret at i on of small samples in an i ndependent manner by regi onal
expert s) should all ow some est i mat i on of t he quali t y of the observed l and change. I n t hi s
case of l acki ng reference dat a for l and cover change, vali dat i ng si ngl e dat e maps usuall y
hel ps t o provi de confidence in t he change est i mat es.
I nformat ion obt ained wi t hout a proper st at ist i cal sampl e desi gn can be useful in
underst andi ng t he basi c error st ruct ure of t he map and hel p t o bui ld confi dence in t he
est i mat es gener at ed. Such i nformat i on includes:
 Spat i al l y- di st ribut ed confi dence val ues provi ded by t he i nt erpret at i on or
cl assi fi cat ion al gori thms i t sel f. Thi s may i ncl ude a si mpl e met hod by wi t hholdi ng a
sampl e of t rai ning observat i ons from t he cl assi fi cat i on process and t hen usi ng
t hose obser vat i ons as r ef er ence dat a. Whi l e t he out come i s not free of bi as, t he
out comes can i ndi cat e t he r el at i ve magni t ude of t he different ki nds of errors li kel y
t o be found in t he map.
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 Syst emat i c qualit at i ve exami nat ions of the map and compari sons ( bot h
qual i t ati ve and quanti t at i ve) wi t h other maps and dat a sources,
 Syst emat i c revi ew and j udgment s by local and regi onal expert s,
 Compari sons wi t h non- spat i al and st at i st i cal dat a.
Any uncert ai nt y bound should be t reat ed conservat i vel y, in order t o avoi d a benef i t for
t he count ry ( e.g. an overest i mat i on of removal s, enhancement s and underest i mat i on of
emi ssi ons reduct ions) based on highl y uncert ain dat a.
For fut ure periods, a st at i st i call y robust accuracy assessment should be pl anned from t he
st art and i ncluded in t he cost and t i me budget s. Such an effort would need t o be based
on a probabilit y sampl e, usi ng sui t abl e dat a of hi gher quali t y, and t r ansparent report ing
of uncert ainti es. More det ail ed and agr eed t echni cal gui delines for t hi s purpose can be
provi ded by t he t echni cal communit y.
2.6 .3.2 Uncert ainties in C st ocks
Assessi ng uncert ainti es i n t he est i mat es of C st ocks, and consequent l y of C st ocks
changes ( i .e. t he emi ssi on fact ors) , can be more chall enging t han est i mat i ng
uncert ai nti es of t he area and ar ea changes ( i .e. t he act i vi t y dat a) . Thi s i s part i cul arl y
t rue for t ropi cal f orest s, oft en char act eri zed by a hi gh degree of spat i al vari abilit y and
t hus requi ring resources t o sampl e adequat el y t o arri ve at accurat e and preci se
est i mat es of t he C st ocks i n a gi ven pool . Furt hermore, wher eas assessi ng separat el y
random and syst emat i c errors appears feasi bl e for t he act i vi t y dat a, i t i s far mor e
di ffi cul t for t he emi ssi on fact or. Her e we wil l bri efl y focus on the main pot ent i al sources
of syst emat i c errors, as t hese are li kel y t he mai n sources of uncert ai nt y in C st ocks at
nat i onal scal e.
There ar e at l east t wo i mport ant — and oft en unaccount ed for —syst emat i c errors t hat
may i ncrease t he uncert ai nt y of t he emi ssion fact or. The fi rst i s rel at ed t o compl et eness,
i .e. whi ch carbon pool s are included. I n t hi s cont ext , i t i s i mport ant t o assess whi ch pool
i s rel evant f or t he purpose of REDD. To t hi s aim, t he concept s of “ key cat egori es” and
“ conservat i veness” coul d great l y help i n deci ding whi ch pool i s wort h to be measured,
and at whi ch l evel of accuracy i t shoul d be measured. The key cat egory anal ysi s as
suggest ed by t he I PCC (see sect i on 2.2.4.1.1) allows i denti fying whi ch pool s in a gi ven
count ry are i mport ant or not . For exampl e, dependi ng on t he organi c carbon cont ent of
soi l and t he fat e of t he deforest ed l and ( convert ed t o annual cropl ands or t o perenni al
grasses) t he soi l may or may not be a si gni fi cant source of GHG emi ssi ons (see sect ion
2. 3 for furt her di scussi on) . I f t he pool i s si gni fi cant , hi gher ti ers met hods ( i .e. ti er 2 or 3)
should be used for est i mat ing emi ssions, ot herwi se t i er 1 may be enough. Furt hermore,
in some cases, negl ect i ng soil carbon will cause a REDD+ est i mat e t o be not compl et e,
but never t hel ess conser vat i ve ( see sect i on 4.4.1 for furt her di scussi on) . Al though
conservat i veness i s, st ri ctl y speaki ng, an accounting concept , i t s consi derat i on during
t he est i mat ion phase may hel p i n allocat ing resources i n a cost - effect i ve way.
The second pot ent i al source of syst emat i c error i s rel at ed t o t he repr esent at i veness of a
part i cul ar est i mat e for a carbon pool . For exampl e, t he aboveground bi omass of t he
forest s i n the deforest ed areas may be si gnifi cantl y di fferent t han count ry or ecosyst em
aver aged val ues. Accur at e est i mat es of carbon fl ux require not aver age val ues over l arge
regions, but t he biomass of t he forest s act uall y deforest ed and logged. However, once
agai n, usi ng sound st at i st i cal sampli ng met hods, a count ry can desi gn a pl an t o sampl e
t he forest s undergoing or likel y t o undergo deforest at i on and degradat i on (see sect i on
2. 2) .
2.6 .3.3 I dent ifying correlat ions
Correl at ion means dependency bet ween par amet er s used i n cal cul ati on as expl ained i n
sect ion 2.6.2. Correl at ion can occur ei t her bet ween cat egori es ( f or exampl e t he same
emi ssi on f act or used for different cat egori es) or bet ween years ( e. g. same emi ssi on
2- 104
fact or used for di fferent years, or t he same met hod wi t h known bi as used for area
est i mat e i n different year s) .
Regarding t he correl at i on bet ween di fferent years, no correl at ion i s t ypi call y assumed for
act i vi t y dat a. For t he emi ssi on fact or, i t depends on whet her t he same value of C st ock
change for t he most di saggr egat ed r eport ed l evel i s used across years or not : i f di fferent
values ar e used, no correl at ion would be considered; by cont rast , i f t he same emi ssi on
fact or i s used ( i .e. t he same carbon st ock change for the same t ype of conversion i n
di fferent years) a perfect posi ti ve correl at i on woul d resul t . The l at t er case represent s t he
basi c assumpt i on gi ven by t he I PCC (I PCC 2006) and by most LULUCF uncert ai nt y
anal yses of Annex I Part i es ( Monni et al 2007) . I f t he REDD+ mechani sm wil l foresee a
compari son bet ween net emi ssions in di fferent est i mat es, i .e., bet ween a ref erence l evel
and net emi ssi ons in t he assessment peri od, a hi gh or full correl at i on of C st ock changes
bet ween peri ods shoul d be a li kel y si tuat ion for most count ri es
57
.
When t he uncert ai nti es ar e est i mat ed f or ar ea and carbon st ock change, pot ent i al
correl at i ons al so have t o be i denti fi ed so t hat t hey can be deal t wi t h when combi ning
uncert ai nti es. I f Ti er 1 met hod i s used for combi ni ng uncert ai nti es ( i .e. “ error
propagat i on” , see l at er) , a quali t at i ve j udgment i s needed whet her correl at ions exi st
bet ween years and cat egori es. The correl at ions bet ween years ( in both area and carbon
st ock est i mat es) can be deal t wi t h t he equat i ons of Ti er 1 met hod. I f correl at ions ar e
identi fi ed bet ween cat egori es, i t i s good pract i ce t o aggregat e t he cat egori es i n a manner
t hat correl at ions become l ess i mport ant ( e.g. t o sum up all t he cat egori es using t he
same EF before carryi ng out t he uncert ai nt y anal ysi s) . I f a Ti er 2 met hod i s used for
combi ning uncert ai nti es ( i .e. “Mont e Carl o” , see l at er) , t he correl at ions can be expli ci tl y
model ed.
2.6 .3.4 Combining uncertaint ies
The uncert ai nti es in indi vidual paramet ers can be combined usi ng ei ther ( 1) error
propagat i on ( I PCC Ti er 1) or ( 2) Mont e Carlo simul at ion ( I PCC Ti er 2) . I n bot h met hods
uncert ai nti es can be combined regardi ng t he l evel of emi ssi ons or removal s (i . e.
emi ssi ons or removal s in a speci fi c year) or t rend of emi ssions or removal s ( i .e. change
of emi ssions or removal s bet ween t he t wo years) .
Ti er 1 met hod i s based on si mpl e error propagat i on, and cannot t herefore handl e all
kinds of uncert ai nt y est i mat es. The key assumpt ions of Ti er 1 met hod are:
 est i mat i on of emi ssions and removal s i s based on addi t ion, subt ract i on and
mul ti pli cat ion
 t here ar e no correl at ions across cat egori es ( or i f there i s, t he cat egori es ar e
aggr egat ed in a manner t hat t he correl at i ons become uni mport ant )
 none of t he paramet ers has an uncert ai nt y higher t han about ± 60%
 uncert ai nti es ar e symmet ri c and foll ow normal di st ri bution
 rel at i ve ranges of uncert ai nt y in t he emi ssion fact ors and ar ea est i mat es are t he
same i n years 1 and 2


57
The basic I PCC assumpt ion of f ull correlat ion of emission fact ors uncert aint ies bet ween years
can be considered likely in t he case of emissions f rom def orest at ion, primarily because, in many
cases, no reliable dat a on C st ock changes of past def orest ed areas exist in t ropical count ries. I n
ot her words, f or each disaggregat ed report ed level ( e. g. t ropical rain forest convert ed t o cropland),
it is likely t hat t he same emission fact or will be used bot h in t he hist orical and in t he assessment
periods. However, a diff erent sit uat ion may occur f or forest degradat ion: in t his case, t he
corr elat ion will ult imat ely depend on how emissions are calculat ed, and pot ent ial correlat ions
should be caref ully examined.
2- 105
However, even in t he case t hat not al l of t he condi tions are ful fi ll ed, t he met hod can be
used t o obt ai n approxi mat e r esul t s. I n t he case of asymmet ri c di st ri buti ons, t he
uncert ai nt y bound the absol ut e val ue of whi ch i s hi gher should be used i n t he
cal cul at i on.
Ti er 2 met hod, inst ead, i s based on Mont e Carlo si mul at ion, whi ch i s abl e t o deal wi t h
any ki nd of model s, correl at ions and di st ri buti on. However, appli cat i on of Ti er 2 met hod
requi res more resources t han t hat of Ti er 1.
Tier 1 level assessment
Error propagat ion i s based on t wo equat i ons: one f or mul ti pli cat ion and one for addi tion
and subt ract i on. Equat i on t o be used in case of mul ti pli cat ion i s (Equat ion 2. 6.1):
2 2
2
2
1
....
n total
U U U U + + + =

Where:
Ui = percent age uncert ai nt y associ at ed wi t h each of the par amet er s
Ut ot al = t he percent age uncert ai nt y in the product of the par amet er s

Box 2.6.1 shows on exampl e of t he use of equat ion 2.6.1.
Box 2.6.1. Example of t he use of Tier 1 met hod t hat combines uncert aint y
in area change and on t he carbon st ock ( multiplicat ion)


Uncer t aint y
( % of t he mean)
Ar ea change ( ha) 1082 7 8
Carbon st ock ( t C/ ha) 148 15
Mean
value


Thus t he t ot al carbon st ock l oss over t he st rat um i s:
10,827 ha* 148 t C/ ha = 1,602,396 t C
And t he uncert ai nt y = % 17 15 8
2 2
± = +

I n t he case of addi t ion and subt ract i on, for exampl e when carbon st ocks are summed up,
t he following equat ion wi ll be appli ed (Equat i on 2.6.2) :
( ) ( ) ( )
n
n n
total
x x x
x U x U x U
U
+ +
+
=
...
* ... * *
2 1
2 2
2 2
2
1 1

Where:
U
i
= percent age uncert ai nt y associ at ed wi t h each of the par amet er s
x
i
= t he val ue of t he par amet er
U
t ot al
= t he percent age uncert ai nt y in the sum of t he par amet er s

An exampl e on the use of Equat ion 2. 6.2 i s present ed i n Box 2.6.2.
2- 106
Box 2. 6.2. Example of t he use of Tier 1 met hod that combines carbon st ock
est imat es ( addition)



t herefore t he t ot al st ock i s 138 t C/ ha and t he uncert ai nt y =
( ) ( ) ( )
7 18 113
7 * % 2 18 * % 3 113 * % 11
2 2 2
+ +
+ +
= ± 9%
The t ot al uncert ai nt y i s ± 9% of t he mean t ot al C st ock of 138 t C/ ha

Tier 1 t rend assessment
Est i mat i on of t rend uncert ai nt y following t he I PCC Ti er 1 met hod i s based on t he use of
t wo sensi ti vi ti es:
 Type A sensi ti vi t y, whi ch ari ses from uncert ai nti es t hat af fect emi ssi ons or
removal s i n t he year s 1 and 2 equall y (i.e. t he vari abl es are correl at ed across t he
year s)
 Type B sensi ti vi t y whi ch ari ses from uncert ai nt i es t hat affect emi ssions or
removal s i n t he year 1 or 2 onl y (i .e. vari abl es are uncorrel at ed across t he year s)
The basi c assumpt i on i s t hat emi ssi on fact ors and ot her paramet ers ar e full y correl at ed
across t he years ( Type A sensi ti vi t y) . Act i vi ty dat a, on t he ot her hand, i s usuall y
assumed t o be uncorrel at ed across year s ( Type B sensi ti vi t y) . However, t hi s associ at i on
will not al ways hold and by modif yi ng the calcul at i on, i t i s possi bl e t o appl y Type A
sensi ti vi ti es t o act i vi t y dat a, and Type B sensi t i vi ti es t o emi ssi on fact ors t o refl ect
part i cul ar ci rcumst ances. Type A and Type B sensi ti vi t i es are si mplifi cat ions int roduced
for t he approxi mat e anal ysi s of correl at ion. To get more accurat e resul t s or to be abl e t o
handl e correl at i ons expli ci tl y, Ti er 2 met hod would be needed.
Tabl e 2. 6.1 can be used t o combine l evel and t rend uncert ai nti es usi ng Ti er 1 met hod.
The emi ssions and removal s of each cat egory in t he year s 1 and 2 are ent ered i nto
col umns C and D, and t he respect i ve percent age uncert ai nti es expr essed wi t h the 95%
confidence i nt erval are ent er ed int o columns E and F. For t he rest of t he columns, t he
equat ions are ent er ed as shown in t he t abl e. The l et t er s (for exampl e ‘C’) denot e t he
entries in the same row and respective column, whereas the sums (for example ‘ΣC’)
denot e t he sum of all t he ent ri es i n the respect i ve column. The l evel and t rend
uncert ai nti es ar e cal cul at ed i n t he l ast row of t he t abl e.
2- 107

Table 2.6.1. Ti er 1 cal cul at ion t abl e ( based on I PCC met hod) .

Not e i : ( )
¯
¯ ¯
¯
¯ ¯
÷
÷
+
+ ÷ +
C
C D
C C
C C D D
* 100
* 01 . 0
* 01 . 0 * 01 . 0
* 100

Not e i i : The equat i on assumes ful l correl at i on bet ween t he emi ssi on f act or s i n t he year s 1 and 2. I f i t i s
assumed t hat no corr el at i on occur s, t he f ol l owi ng equat i on i s t o be used: 2 * * F J
Not e i ii : The equat i on assumes no corr el at i on bet ween t he area est i mat es i n t he years 1 and 2. I f i t i s
assumed t hat ful l correl at i on occurs, t he fol l owi ng equat i on i s t o be used: E I *

Tier 2 Mont e Carlo simulat ion
The Ti er 2 met hod i s a Mont e Carlo t ype of analysi s. I t i s more compli cat ed t o appl y, but
gi ves more reli abl e resul t s part i cul arl y where uncert ai nti es are l arge, di st ri buti ons ar e
non-normal , or correl ati ons exi st . Furt hermore, Ti er 2 met hod can be appl i ed t o model s
or equat i ons, whi ch are not based onl y on addit i on, subt ract i on and multi plicat i on. See
Chapt er 5 of I PCC GPG LULUCF for more det ail s on how to i mpl ement Ti er 2.
2.6 .3.5 Report ing and documentat ion
Accordi ng to t he I PCC, i t i s good pract i ce t o report t he uncert ai nti es usi ng a st andardi zed
format . For t he purpose of t hi s Sourcebook, we pr esent a sli ght l y si mpli fi ed ver si on of
t he I PCC t abl e ( Tabl e 2.6.2) . Columns A t o G ar e t he same as in Tabl e 2.6.2 i f Ti er 1
met hod i s used. Col umn H wi ll be cal cul at ed according t o t he equat i on gi ven, whereas
t he ent ri es i n column I wil l be cal cul at ed by cat egory fol lowi ng t he same met hod as i n
A B C D E F G H I J K L M
Cat egor y Gas
E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

o
r

r
e
m
o
v
a
l
s

i
n

y
e
a
r

1

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

o
r

r
e
m
o
v
a
l
s

i
n

y
e
a
r

2

A
r
e
a

u
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n

f
a
c
t
o
r

u
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y

C
o
m
b
i
n
e
d

u
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y

C
o
n
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n

t
o

v
a
r
i
a
n
c
e

b
y

c
a
t
e
g
o
r
y

i
n

y
e
a
r

2

T
y
p
e

A

s
e
n
s
i
t
i
v
i
t
y

T
y
p
e

B

s
e
n
s
i
t
i
v
i
t
y

U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y

i
n

t
r
e
n
d

i
n
t
r
o
d
u
c
e
d

b
y

e
m
i
s
s
i
o
n

f
a
c
t
o
r

u
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y


(
N
o
t
e

i
i
)

U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y

i
n

t
r
e
n
d

i
n
t
r
o
d
u
c
e
d

b
y

a
r
e
a

u
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y


(
N
o
t
e

i
i
i
)

U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y

i
n
t
r
o
d
u
c
e
d

t
o


t
h
e

t
r
e
n
d

i
n

t
o
t
a
l

e
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s
/

Mg
CO2
Mg
CO2
% %
2 2
F E +

( )
( )
2
2
*
¯
D
D G

Not e i
¯
C
D

F I *

2 * * E J

2 2
* L K
E. g.
For est
conver t ed
t o
Cr opland
CO2
E. g.
For est
conver t ed
t o
Gr assland
CO2
Et c …
Tot al
¯
C

¯
D


¯
H

¯
M
Level uncer t aint y
¯
H

Tr end
uncer t aint y
¯
M
2- 108
t he cal cul at i on of the t ot al t rend uncert ai nt y. Column J i s for addi tional informat i on on
t he met hods used.

Table 2.6.2. Reporti ng t abl e f or uncert ai nti es.
A B C D E F G H I J
Cat egor y Gas
E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

o
r

r
e
m
o
v
a
l
s

i
n


y
e
a
r

1

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

o
r

r
e
m
o
v
a
l
s

i
n


y
e
a
r

2

A
r
e
a

u
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n


f
a
c
t
o
r

u
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y

C
o
m
b
i
n
e
d

u
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y

I
n
v
e
n
t
o
r
y

t
r
e
n
d


f
o
r

y
e
a
r

2

i
n
c
r
e
a
s
e

w
i
t
h

r
e
s
p
e
c
t

t
o

y
e
a
r

1


(
N
o
t
e

a
)

T
r
e
n
d

u
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y

o
f

t
h
e

c
a
t
e
g
o
r
y

M
e
t
h
o
d

u
s
e
d

t
o

e
s
t
i
m
a
t
e

u
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y

(
N
o
t
e

b
)

Mg
CO2
Mg
CO2
% % % % of
year 1

E.g. For est Land
conver t ed t o
Cropl and
CO2
E.g. For est Land
conver t ed t o
Gr assl and
CO2
Et c …
Tot al Level
uncer t ai n
t y
Tr end
uncert ai n
t y


Not e a:
C
C D ÷

Not e b: For exampl e: expert j udgment , l i t erat ur e, st at i st i cal t echni ques for sampl i ng, i nformat i on on t he
i nst r ument used

2- 109
2. 6. 4 Key references for Sect i on 2. 6
Card DH ( 1982) Usi ng Known Map Cat egory Margi nal Frequenci es t o I mprove Est i mat es
of Themat i c Map Accuracy. Phot ogrammet ric Engi neering & Remot e Sensing. 48: 431-
439.
Full er RM, Smi t h GM, Devereux BJ ( 2003) The charact eri zat i on and measurement of l and
cover change t hrough remot e sensi ng: probl ems i n operat i onal appli cat i ons? I nt . J.
Applied Eart h Observat ion and Geoinformat ion. 4: 243- 253.
I PCC ( 2006) I PCC Guidelines for Nat ional Greenhouse Gas I nvent ori es, Prepared by t he
Nat ional Greenhouse Gas I nvent ori es Programme, Eggl est on HS, Buendi a L, Mi wa K,
Ngar a T, Tanabe K.( eds) . Publi shed: I GES, Japan.
Lowell K ( 2001) An area- based accuracy assessment met hodology for di gi t al change
maps. I nt . J. Remot e Sensing. 22: 3571-3596.
Monni S, Pel t oni emi M, Palosuo T, Leht onen A, Mäki pää R, Savol ai nen I ( 2007)
Uncert aint y of forest carbon st ock changes - i mpli cat ions t o t he t ot al uncert ai nt y of
GHG invent ory of Fi nl and. Climat i c Change. 81: 391 - 413
St ehman SV, Sohl TL, Lovel and TR (2003) : Stat i st i cal sampl i ng t o charact eri ze recent
Uni t ed St at es l and- cover change. Remot e Sensing of Envi ronment 86: 517- 529.
St rahl er A, Boschet t i L, Foody GM et al . ( 2006) Gl obal Land Cover Vali dat ion:
Recommendat i ons for Eval uat ion and Accuracy Assessment Of Global Land Cover
Maps, Report of Commi t t ee of Eart h Observat ion Sat ell it es ( CEOS) - Worki ng Group
on Cal ibrat ion and Val idat i on ( WGCV) , European Communi ti es, Luxembourg.
Van Oort , PAJ ( 2007) I nt erpret i ng t he change det ect i on error mat ri x. Remot e Sensi ng of
Environment 108: 1- 8.
Wul der M, Frankli n SE, Whit e JC, Li nke J, Magnussen S ( 2006) An accuracy assessment
framework for l arge ar ea l and cover cl assi fi cat i on product s deri ved from medium
resoluti on sat ell i t e dat a. I nt . J. Remot e Sensi ng. 27: 663–683.

2.7 METHODS TO ADDRESS EMERGI NG I SSUES FOR
REDD+ I MPLEMENTATI ON
Rut h DeFri es, Columbi a Uni versi t y, USA
Mart i n Herol d, Wageningen Uni versi t y, The Net herl ands
The foll owing sect i ons focus on the remot e sensi ng cont ributions t o emergi ng i ssues for
REDD+ i mpl ement at i on.
2. 7. 1 I dent ifying drivers of deforest ati on and degradat i on wi t h
remot e sensing
Underst andi ng t he dri vers for deforest at i on and degradat i on i s necessar y t o devi se
effect i ve st r at egi es t o reduce emi ssions. Di st al dri vers, i .e., t hose f act ors t hat are t he
underl ying causes such as i nt ernat i onal market s, t r ade poli ci es, t echnologi cal change
and popul ati on growt h, are not readil y det ect abl e wi t h remot e sensi ng. Economi c and
st at i st i cal anal yses ar e approaches t hat can hel p unravel t hese di st al dri vers. I ndi cat ors
of proxi mat e dri vers, i .e., t hose i mmedi at e act i vi t i es t hat cause deforest at ion and
degr adat i on, are somet i mes possi bl e t o det ect wi th remot e sensi ng. For exampl e, l arge-
scal e agri cul tural cl eari ng i s readil y det ect abl e wi th accept ed met hods ( see sect ion 2.1) .
Proxi mat e dri vers for degradat i on are vari ed and range from local fuel wood coll ecti on to
wil dfires.
2- 110
I ndi cat ors can be used t o infer t he presence or absence of proxi mat e dri vers. Combi ning
t he presence or absence of dri vers wi th t he presence or absence of
deforest at i on/ degradat ion can suggest whi ch dri vers are most influenti al in part i cul ar
pl aces. For exampl e, deforest at i on i dentifi ed in areas of road expansi on suggest s (but
does not prove) t hat road expansi on i s a proxi mat e dri ver for t he deforest at ion. Dri vers
may var y i n di fferent regi ons wi thin a count ry, in whi ch case regi on- speci fi c st rat egi es t o
reduce emi ssi ons woul d be most effect i ve. For exampl e, presence of l arge-scal e
agri cul tural cl earing woul d suggest t hat poli ci es ai med at l arge- l andhol ders rat her t han
smallhol der farmers woul d be most effect i ve in reduci ng deforest at ion in t he region
where l arge cl eari ngs are i dentifi ed.
Remot e sensi ng can provi de informat i on useful for assessi ng whi ch dri vers are present in
part i cul ar l ocat i ons ( Tabl e 2.7. 1) . The si ze of deforest at ion cl eari ngs i s a st rong
indi cat or of indust ri al vs. small hol der agri cul tural expansion as a def orest at ion dri ver.
Si ze can be det ermi ned from anal ysi s of deforest at i on pol ygons mapped wi t h Landsat -
li ke sensors. Medium resol ution dat a are useful for i dentifyi ng t he presence of new
deforest at i on but cannot be used t o accurat el y det ermi ne t he cl eari ng si ze expect wher e
t he cl earings ar e very l arge ( > ~ 100 ha) . Remot e sensi ng can al so provi de i nformat i on
on l and use foll owing deforest at i on, for exampl e row crops or past ure. Hi gh t emporal
resoluti on from MODI has proven useful for t his purpose based on t he higher NDVI of
row crops during t he growing season. Di st i nguishi ng among row crops or past ure as t he
l and use foll owi ng deforest at i on hel ps assess whi ch commodi ti es are deforest at i on
dri vers.
Remot e sensing of dri vers associ at ed wi t h degradat i on can suggest whi ch poli ci es mi ght
be eff ect i ve in reduci ng degradat i on. The presence of l oggi ng roads ( see sect i on 2.2)
indi cat es t he possi bili t y of unsust ai nabl e l oggi ng. The presence of burn scars ( see
sect ion 2.5) i ndi cat es wil dfire as a possi bl e dri ver of degradat i on. Remot e sensi ng i s
more probl emat i c for indi cat ors of degradat i on dri vers such as l ocal wood coll ecti on or
forest grazi ng. Hi gh resolution and ground dat a are requi red, wi t h no wi del y accept ed
met hods for mapping t hese t ypes of degradat i on.
Scenari os of fut ure deforest at i on and degr adat i on can be const ruct ed based on
underst andi ng of whi ch dri vers are i mport ant and how t hey mi ght occur i n t he fut ure.
Scenari o- building must al so account for biophysi cal feat ures t hat det ermi ne wher e
deforest at i on/ degradat ion occurs. For exampl e, deforest at i on for indust ri al agri cul t ure i s
gener al l y l ess li kel y on hi ll sl opes or where pr eci pi t at i on i s ver y hi gh. Car ef ul
assessment of t he economi c, soci al and bi ophysi cal fact ors associ at ed wi t h
deforest at i on/ degradat ion i n t he part i cul ar nat ional ci rcumst ance i s needed t o const ruct
pl ausi bl e fut ure scenari os.

2- 111
Table 2.7.1. Remot e sensi ng of proxi mat e dri vers of deforest at i on and degradat i on.
Dr iver
I ndicat or
of dr iver
Met hod Sensors
Deforest at ion:
I ndust ri al
agri cul tural cl eari ng
f or cat t l e ranchi ng,
row crops et c.

Large-
cl eari ngs
( > 25 ha) ;
post - cl eari ng
l and use

Si ze of
deforest at i on
pol ygons ( see
sect ion 2.1) ; map
of l and use
following
deforest at i on

MODI S, Landsat - li ke
sensors
Small - scal e
agri cul tural cl eari ng
f or past ures,
shi fting cul ti vat ion,
smal lholder farming
Small
cl eari ngs
( < 25 ha)
Si ze of
deforest at i on
pol ygons ( see
sect ion 2.1)
Landsat -l i ke sensors
I nfrast ruct ure
expansion ( roads,
mines et c.)
Road
net works,
new mines
Vi sual anal ysi s or
aut omat ed
det ect i on of
infrast ruct ure
feat ures
Landsat -l i ke and high
resoluti on sensors
Degradat ion:
Unsust ai nabl e
l ogging

Loggi ng
roads

Spect r al mi xi ng
( see sect ion
2.1.3)

Landsat -l i ke sensors
Fuel wood and NTFP
coll ect i on
Foot pat hs,
l ow biomass,
ground dat a
No accept ed
met hod
Hi gh resol ution
Forest grazi ng Ground dat a No accept ed
met hod
Hi gh resol ution
Wil dfire Burn scar s Burn scar
det ect i on (see
sect ion 2.5)
Landsat -l i ke sensors,
MODI S

2. 7. 2 Safeguards t o ensure prot ect ion of biodiversit y
Compensat i on for REDD+ act i vi ti es coul d possi bl y requi re document at ion t hat
bi odi versi t y i s prot ect ed. Speci es ri chness and abundance cannot be di rect l y i dent i fi ed
wi th remot e sensi ng. Ground surveys of biodi versi t y ar e unli kel y t o be avail abl e i n many
locat i ons and ar e not possi bl e t o cover all forest ar ea wi t hin a count ry. Habi t at qual i t y of
forest s i s an indi rect proxy of biodi versi t y t hat coul d provi de i nput for assessi ng t hi s
safeguard. For exampl e, t r ee pl ant at i ons general l y mai nt ain l ower bi odi versi t y t han
forest s. I n some cases t ree pl ant at ions can be di sti ngui shed from forest wi t h vi sual
inspect i on of hi gh resol ution dat a. Evol ving t echnologi es such as r adar show promi se in
maki ng t hi s di st inct ion al t hough no st andar d met hods have been wi del y appli ed.
Remot e sensi ng of forest t ype ( e.g. deci duous, evergr een) based on spect ral
char act eri st i cs or phenol ogi cal informat ion mi ght provi de ot her i ndirect measures of
habi t at quali t y. Met hods for det ermi ning forest t ype i ncl ude vi sual and di gi t al
cl assi fi cat ion ( see sect i on 2.1) based on ground knowl edge of f orest t ypes.
2- 112
2. 7. 3 Safeguards t o ensure right s of forest dwellers
An import ant aspect of REDD+ i mpl ement at i on is assurance t hat knowl edge and ri ght s of
st akehol ders have been mai nt ained. Ground- based informat i on on forest dwel ling
communi t i es, ownershi p and use ri ght s of forest s, and ot her non- remot e sensing dat a
are of pri mary i mport ance for det ermi ni ng t he effect i veness of saf eguards. Remot e
sensi ng could ai d t hi s effort by delineat ing forest ext ent and changes i n forest area
wi thin desi gnat ed i ndigenous l ands.
2. 7. 4 Monit ori ng displacement of emissions and permanence at a
nat ional scale
Leakage, or di spl acement of emi ssi ons, occurs if emi ssions increase i n one ar ea due t o
reduct i ons of emi ssions in anot her ar ea. Det ermi ning l eakage at a nat i onal scal e
requi res consi st ent and t ranspar ent moni t oring of changes i n forest ar ea across t he
ent i re forest ext ent wi t hi n a count ry’s boundari es. For a l arge count ry, det ail ed
moni tori ng across t he ent i re forest ext ent can be prohibi ti ve. Remot e sensi ng dat a can
assi st i n ident i fyi ng “hot spot s” of deforest at i on t o focus det ai l ed anal ysi s on t hose areas
whi l e checki ng whet her deforest at i on has spr ead t o areas out si de t he hot spot s. Act i ve
fi re moni toring ( see sect i on 2.5.4) mi ght indi cat e l ocat i ons wi th new deforest at ion. I n
addi tion, aut omat ed or vi sual anal ysi s of ti me seri es of medium resol ution ( e.g., MODI S)
dat a t o ident i fy areas of possi bl e new deforest at i on woul d requi re l ess dat a processing
t han hi gh resoluti on dat a over t he ent i re forest ext ent . The key r equi rement i s t hat t he
full nat ional forest ext ent must be assessed t o det ermi ne whet her l eakage has occurred
at a nat i onal scal e.
Remot e sensi ng al so has an i mport ant rol e t o pl ay i n addressi ng t he ri sks of reversal s
and verif ying that REDD+ act i ons have a permanent posi ti ve i mpact in t he long t erm.
The advant age of consi st ent t i me seri es and t he val ue t o build sat el lit e dat a archi ves
t hat all ow updat ed and ret rospect i ve anal ysi s i s a uni que char act eri st i c t hat remot e
sensi ng provi des as dat a source.
2. 7. 5 Linking national and sub- nat i onal moni t ori ng
A nat i onal moni toring syst em provi des t he f oundat i on for reporting and t o veri f y t hat t he
sum of all sub-nat ional forest - rel at ed or REDD+ act i vi ti es have a posi t i ve effect as
regards human i mpact on forest carbon. Thus, a syst emat i c and continuous nat i onal
moni tori ng effort i s cl earl y essent i al . However any count ry cont empl at i ng a
REDD/ REDD+ program wil l need t o deci de where t o pl ace i t s maj or effort s, based on
what poli ci es and programs ar e consi dered t o be most effect i ve i n i t s own cont ext . Her e
t he mai n consi derat i on will be not onl y: what dri vers and processes ar e most act i ve and
rel evant and can reali sti cal l y and effect i vel y be t ackl ed at l east i n an i ni ti al phase of
i mpl ement at i on.
Thus, a nat i onal forest carbon moni toring syst em shoul d provi de dat a nat i onall y but al so
be fl exi bl e for more det ail ed, accurat e measurement at t he subnat i onal scal e dri ven by
REDD+ rel at ed act i vi ti es t hat or oft en focused on speci fi c areas. Thi s coul d be t hrough a
nat i onal st rat i fi cat ion syst em t hat provi des for all ( subnat ional ) REDD+ i mpl ement at ion
act i vi ti es t o be measured wi t h more preci sion and accur acy i n REDD+ act i on areas and
l ess det ail ed, syst emat i c moni toring i n the rest . A nat i onal st rat i fi cat ion syst em coul d be
based on forest carbon densi t y and t ypes of human act i vi ti es ( and t hus REDD+ act i ons) .
Such a syst em woul d hel p to show t he effect i veness of subnat i onal act i vi ti es by
accounti ng for nati onal di spl acement of emi ssi ons and permanence. Remot e sensi ng can
pl ay an i mport ant rol e t o identi fy areas of change and syst emat i cal l y t rack performance
and act i vi ti es over t i me.

2- 113
2.8 GUI DANCE ON REPORTI NG
Gi acomo Grassi , Joint Resear ch Cent re, I t al y
Sandro Federi ci , I t al y
Suvi Monni, Joint Resear ch Cent re, I t al y
Danil o Molli cone, Food and Agri cul ture Organi zat ion, I t al y
2. 8. 1 Scope of chapter
2.8 .1.1 The import ance of good report ing
Under t he UNFCCC, i nformat i on report ed in greenhouse gas ( GHG) i nvent ori es
represent s an essent i al li nk bet ween sci ence and pol i cy, provi di ng the means by whi ch
t he COP can monit or progress made by Part i es i n meet i ng their commi t ment s and in
achi evi ng t he Convent ion' s ul ti mat e obj ect i ves. I n any int ernat i onal syst em i n whi ch an
accounti ng procedure i s foreseen - as i n t he Kyot o Prot ocol and li kel y al so in a fut ure
REDD+ mechani sm – t he informat i on report ed in a Part y’s GHG i nvent ory represent s t he
basi s for assessi ng each Part y’ s performance as compared t o i t s commi t ment s or
refer ence scenario, and t her efore repr esent s t he basi s for assi gning event ual incent i ves
or penal ti es.
The quali t y of GHG invent ori es reli es not onl y upon t he robust ness of t he sci ence
underpinni ng t he met hodologi es and t he associ at ed credi bi lit y of t he est i mat es – but al so
on t he way t hi s informat i on i s compi l ed and present ed. I nformat ion must be well
document ed, t r anspar ent and consi st ent wi t h t he report i ng requi rement s outlined in t he
UNFCCC gui deli nes.
2.8 .1.2 Overview of the chapt er
Sect ion 2.8.2 gi ves an over vi ew of t he current report i ng requirement s under UNFCCC,
incl uding t he general underl yi ng princi pl es. The t ypi cal st ruct ure of a GHG i nvent ory i s
illust rat ed, includi ng an exampl e t abl e for report ing C st ock changes from deforest at i on.
Sect ion 2.8.3 outl ines t he maj or chall enges t hat devel oping count ri es will li kel y
encount er when i mpl ement ing the reporti ng princi pl es descri bed in sect ion 2.8.2.
Sect ion 2.8.4 el aborat es concept s al ready agreed upon in a UNFCCC cont ext and
descri bes how a conservat i ve approach may hel p to overcome some of t he di ffi cul ti es
descri bed i n Sect ion 2.8.3.
2. 8. 2 Overview of reporti ng principles and procedures
2.8 .2.1 Current report ing requirement s under t he UNFCCC
Under t he UNFCCC, all Parti es are requi red t o provi de nat i onal invent ori es of
ant hropogeni c emi ssions by sources and removal s by sinks of all greenhouse gases not
cont roll ed by t he Mont real Protocol . To promot e t he provi sion of credi bl e and consi st ent
GHG i nformat ion, t he COP has devel oped speci fi c reporti ng gui deli nes t hat det ail
st andardi zed r equirement s. Al t hough t hese requi rement s di ffer across Par t i es, t hey ar e
si mil ar in t hat t hey are based on I PCC met hodologi es and ai m t o produce a full,
accur at e, t ransparent , consi st ent and comparabl e reporting of GHG emi ssions and
removal s.
2- 114
At present , det ail ed reporti ng gui delines exi st for t he annual GHG i nvent ori es of Annex I
Part i es ( UNFCCC 2004)
58
, whil e onl y generi c gui dance i s avail abl e for the prepar at i on of
nat i onal communi cat ions from non-Annex I Part ies
59
. Thi s difference r efl ect s t he fact t hat
Annex I (AI ) Part i es ar e r equi red t o report det ail ed dat a on an annual basi s t hat ar e
subj ect t o i n- dept h revi ew by t eams of independent exper t s, whil e Non-Annex I Part i es
( NAI ) currentl y report l ess oft en and i n l ess det ail . As a resul t , t hei r nat i onal
communi cat i ons are not subj ect t o i n- dept h reviews.
However, gi ven t he pot ent i al rel evance of a fut ure REDD+ mechani sm - and t he
consequent need for robust and defensi bl e est imat es - t he r eport ing requirement s of NAI
Part i es on emi ssions from deforest at i on wi ll cert ai nl y become more st ri ngent and may
come cl ose t o t he l evel of det ai l currentl y requi red from AI Part i es. Thi s t endency i s
confirmed by recent document s agreed duri ng REDD+ negot i at i ons – i .e. t he
demonst r at i on REDD+ act i vi ti es shoul d produce est i mat es t hat are “ r esul t s based,
demonst r able, t r ansparent , and verif iable, and est imat ed consi st ent l y over t ime”
60
.
Therefore, al t hough at present i t i s not possi bl e t o foresee t he exact r eport ing
requi rement s of a fut ure REDD+ mechani sm, t hey wi ll l i kel y follow the gener al princi pl es
and procedures current l y vali d for AI part i es and outlined in t he fol lowi ng sect i on.
2.8 .2.2 I nvent ory and report ing principles
Under t he UNFCCC, t here are fi ve general pri nci pl es whi ch shoul d gui de t he est i mat i on
and t he report ing of emi ssions and removals of GHGs: Transparency, Consi st ency
Compar abil it y Compl et eness and Accuracy. Al t hough some of t hese princi pl es have been
al ready di scussed i n previous chapt ers, bel ow are summari zed and t hei r rel evance for
t he report i ng i s hi ghlight ed:
Transparency - i .e. , all t he assumpt i ons and t he met hodologi es used in t he invent ory
should be cl earl y expl ained and appropri at el y document ed, so t hat anybody coul d veri fy
i t s correct ness. GHG est i mat es ar e report ed at a l evel of di saggregat ion whi ch all ows t o
veri fy underl ying cal cul ati on and most rel evant background dat a are provi ded i n the
report .
Consist ency - i .e. t he same defi ni tions and met hodologi es shoul d be used al ong ti me.
Thi s shoul d ensure t hat di fferences bet ween year s and cat egori es refl ect r eal di fferences
in emi ssi ons. Under cert ai n ci rcumst ances, est imat es usi ng different met hodologi es for
di fferent year s can be consi dered consi st ent i f t hey have been cal cul at ed i n a
t ransparent manner. Recal cul at ions of previousl y submi t t ed est i mat es ar e possi bl e t o
i mprove accuracy and/ or compl et eness, providi ng t hat al l t he rel evant i nformat i on i s
properl y document ed. I n a REDD+ cont ext , consi st ency al so means t hat all t he l ands
and all t he carbon pool s whi ch have been report ed i n t he reference l evel must be t racked
in t he f uture (i n t he Kyot o l anguage i t i s said “once i n, al ways i n” ) . Si mil arl y, t he
incl usi on of new sources or si nks whi ch were not previousl y report ed ( e.g., a carbon
pool ) , shoul d be report ed for t he reference l evel and al l subsequent years for whi ch a
reporti ng i s requi red. I t shall be not ed t hat t he consi st ency pri nci pl e may be ext ended
al so t o defi ni ti ons ( e.g. defini tion of forest ) and est i mat es ( e.g. forest ar ea, aver age C
st ock) provi ded by t he same Part y t o di ff erent int ernat i onal organi zat i ons ( e.g. UNFCCC,
FAO) . I n t hat case, any di screpancy should be adequat el y j ust i fi ed.


58
UNFCCC 2004 Guidelines f or t he preparat ion of nat ional communicat ions by Part ies included in
Annex I t o t he Convent ion, Part I : UNFCCC report ing guidelines on annual invent ories
( FCCC/ SBSTA/ 2004/ 8) .
59
UNFCCC 2002 Guidelines f or t he preparat ion of nat ional communicat ions f rom Part ies not
included in Annex I t o t he Convent ion ( FCCC/ CP/ 2002/ 7/ Add. 2).
60
Decision 2/ CP. 13. ht t p: / / unfccc. int / resource/ docs/ 2007/ cop13/ eng/ 06a01. pdf # page= 8

2- 115
Comparabilit y across count ri es. For t hi s purpose, Part i es shoul d foll ow t he
met hodologi es and st andard format s ( i ncluding t he allocat i on of dif ferent source/ si nk
cat egory) provi ded by t he I PCC and agreed wi thin t he UNFCCC for est i mat i ng and
reporti ng invent ori es ( see al so chapt er 2.1) .
Completeness - meaning t hat est i mat es should i nclude – for al l t he rel evant
geographi cal coverage – all the agr eed cat egori es, gases and pool s. When gaps exi st , all
t he rel evant informat ion and j ust ifi cat i on on these gaps shoul d be document ed in a
t ransparent manner.
Accuracy - i n t he sense t hat est i mat es shoul d be syst emat i call y nei ther over nor under
t he t rue value, so far as can be j udged, and t hat uncert ai nt i es are reduced so far as i s
pract i cabl e. Appropri at e met hodologi es should be used, i n accordance wi t h t he I PCC, t o
promot e accuracy in i nvent ori es and t o quantif y t he uncert ai nti es i n order t o i mprove
fut ure invent ori es.
Furt hermore, t hese pri nci pl es gui de t he process of independent revi ew of all t he GHG
invent ori es submi t t ed by AI Part i es t o t he UNFCCC.
2.8 .2.3 St ruct ure of a GHG invent ory
A nat ional invent ory of GHG ant hropogeni c emi ssi ons and removal s i s t ypi cal l y di vi ded
into t wo part s:
Report ing Tables are a seri es of st andar di zed dat a t abl es t hat cont ai n mainl y
quant i t at i ve ( numeri cal ) i nformat i on. Box 2.8.1 shows an exampl e t abl e for reporti ng C
st ock changes fol lowi ng deforest at ion ( modifi ed from Kyot o Prot ocol LULUCF t abl es for
illust rat i ve purposes onl y) . Typi call y, t hese t abl es incl ude columns for:
 The ini tial and fi nal land- use cat egory. Addi tional st rat i fi cat i on i s encouraged (i n a
separ at e column for subdi vi sions) accordi ng to cri t eri a such as cl i mat e zone,
management syst em, soi l t ype, veget at i on t ype, t ree speci es, ecologi cal zones,
nat i onal l and cl assi fi cat ion or ot her fact ors.
 The “ act ivit y dat a” , i .e., area of l and (in t housands of ha) subj ect t o gross
deforest at i on, degradat ion and management of forest s ( see Sect i on 1.2).
 The “ emission fact ors” , i . e., t he C st ock changes per uni t area deforest ed or
degr aded or managed, separ at ed for each carbon pool (see Sect ions 2.2 & 2.3) .
The t erm “ i mpl i ed fact ors” means t hat t he report ed val ues represent an average
wi thin t he report ed cat egory or subcat egory, and ser ves mai nl y for compar at i ve
purposes.
 The t ot al change in C st ock, obt ai ned by mul t ipl yi ng each act i vi t y dat a by t he
rel evant emi ssi on C st ock change f act or.
 The t ot al emi ssions ( expressed as CO
2
) .
2- 116
Box 2 .8.1 . Example of a t ypical report ing t able for report ing C stock changes following
deforest ation.

I MPLI ED CARBON
STOCK CHANGE
FACTORS
( 2)

CHANGE I N CARBON
STOCK
( 2)

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE
AND SI NK CATEGORI ES
ACTI VI TY
DATA
carbon st ock change
per uni t area i n:
car bon st ock change i n:
b
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Land- Use
Cat egor y
Sub- di vi si on
( 1)

Tot al area
( kha)
( Mg C/ ha)
(
M
g

C
O
2
/
h
a
)

( Gg C)
(
G
g

C
O
2
)

A. Tot al
Defor est at i on

( speci fy)

1. For est Land
conver t ed t o
Cropl and
( speci fy)
( speci fy)
2. For est Land
conver t ed t o
Gr assl and
( speci fy)

…..
( 1) Land cat egor i es may be fur t her di vi ded accor di ng t o cl i mat e zone, management syst em, soi l t ype, veget at i on
t ype, t r ee speci es, ecol ogi cal zones, nat i onal l and cl assi fi cat i on or ot her cri t eri a.
( 2) The si gns f or est i mat es of i ncr eases i n car bon st ocks ar e posi t i ve ( + ) and of decr eases i n car bon st ocks ar e
negat i ve ( - ) .
( 3) Accor di ng t o I PCC Gui del i nes, changes i n carbon st ocks are convert ed t o CO2 by mul t i pl yi ng C by 44/ 12 and
changi ng t he si gn for net CO2 removal s t o be negat i ve ( - ) and for net CO2 emi ssi ons t o be posi t i ve ( + ) .

Document at i on box:
Use t hi s document at i on box t o provi de r efer ences t o r el evant sect i ons of t he I nvent ory Report i f any addi t i onal
i nformat i on and/ or furt her det ai l s are needed t o under st and t he cont ent of t hi s t abl e.

2- 117
To ensure t he compl et eness of an invent ory, i t i s good pract i ce t o fill in i nformat ion for
all ent ri es of t he t abl e. I f act ual emi ssi on and removal quant i ti es have not been
est i mat ed or cannot ot herwi se be r eport ed i n t he t abl es, t he i nvent ory compil er shoul d
use t he following qual i t at i ve “ not at i on keys” ( from I PCC 2006 GL) and provi de
supporti ng document at ion.

Notat ion key Explanat ion
NE ( Not est i mat ed)

Emi ssions and/ or removal s occur but have not been
est i mat ed or report ed.
I E ( I ncl uded el sewher e)

Emi ssions and/ or removal s for t hi s act i vi t y or cat egory ar e
est i mat ed but i ncluded el sewhere. I n t hi s case, where t hey
ar e l ocat ed shoul d be i ndi cat ed,
C ( Confidenti al informat i on)

Emi ssions and/ or removal s are aggr egat ed and incl uded
el sewher e i n t he invent ory because r eport i ng at a
di saggr egat ed l evel coul d l ead t o t he discl osure of
confidenti al informat i on.
NA ( Not Appli cabl e)

For act i vi ti es in a gi ven source/ si nk cat egory t hat do not
resul t in emi ssions or removal s of a speci fi c gas. .
NO ( Not Occurring) An act i vi t y or process does not occur wi thi n a count ry.
For exampl e, i f a count ry deci des t hat a di sproport ionat e amount of effort would be
requi red t o col l ect dat a for a pool from a speci fi c cat egory t hat i s not a key cat egory ( see
Sect i ons 2.2 & 2.3) i n t erms of t he over all l evel and t r end in nat ional emi ssion, t hen t he
count ry shoul d li st all gases/ pool s excluded on t hese grounds, t oget her wi t h a
j ust i fi cat i on for excl usi on, and use t he not at i on key ' NE' in t he reporting t abl es.
Furt hermore, t he r eport i ng t abl es ar e generall y compl ement ed by a document at ion box
whi ch should be used t o provi de references t o r el evant sect i ons of t he I nvent ory Report
if any addi tional informat i on i s needed.
I n addi ti on t o t abl es l i ke t hose i llust rat ed i n Box 2.8.1, ot her t ypi cal t abl es t o be f illed i n
a compr ehensi ve GHG i nvent ory i ncl ude:
 Tabl es wi t h emi ssions from ot her gases ( e. g., CH4 and N2O from biomass
burni ng) , t o be expr essed bot h in uni t of mass and in CO
2
equi val ent ( using t he
Global Warming Pot ent i al of each gas provi ded by t he I PCC) .
 Summary t abl es ( wi t h all t he gases and all t he emi ssi ons/ removal s).
 Tabl es wi t h emi ssion t rends ( coveri ng dat a al so from previous invent ory year) .
 Tabl es for i llust rat i ng t he resul t s of t he key cat egory anal ysi s, t he compl et eness
of the reporti ng, and event ual recal cul at i ons.
I nvent ory Report: The ot her part of a nat ional invent ory i s an I nvent ory Report t hat
cont ai ns comprehensi ve and t ranspar ent i nformat i on about t he invent ory, incl uding:
 An overvi ew of t rends for aggregat ed GHG emi ssi ons/ removal s, by gas and by
cat egory.
 A descri pti on of t he met hodologi es used i n compil ing t he i nvent ory, t he
assumpt i ons, t he dat a sources and rat i onal e for t hei r sel ect i on, and an i ndi cat ion
of t he l evel of compl exi t y ( I PCC t i ers) appli ed. I n t he cont ext of REDD+ reporting,
appropri at e i nformat i on on l and- use defini tions, l and area represent at i on and
l and-use dat abases are li kel y t o be requi red.
2- 118
 A descri pt ion of t he key cat egori es, including informat i on on t he l evel of cat egory
di saggr egat i on used and i t s rat i onal e, t he met hodol ogy used for identi fying key
cat egori es, and if necessary, expl anat i ons for why t he I PCC-recommended Ti ers
have not been appli ed.
 I nformat ion on uncert ai nti es (i .e., met hods used and underl yi ng assumpt i ons) ,
t i me- seri es consi st ency, r ecal cul ati ons (wi t h j ust i fi cat ion for provi di ng new
est i mat es) , quali t y assurance and quali t y cont rol procedures and archi vi ng of
dat a.
 A descri ption of t he insti t utional arrangement s f or invent ory pl anni ng, preparat ion
and management .
 I nformat ion on pl anned i mprovement s.
Furt hermore, all of t he rel evant invent ory i nformat i on shoul d be compil ed and archi ved,
incl uding all di saggregat ed emi ssi on f act ors, act i vi t y dat a and document at i on on how
t hese f act ors and dat a were gener at ed and aggregat ed for report ing. Thi s informat ion
should al low, int er ali a, reconst ruct ion of the i nvent ory by t he expert revi ew t eams.
2. 8. 3 What are the maj or challenges for developing count ries?
Al t hough t he i nvent ory requirement s for a REDD+ mechani sm have not yet been
desi gned, i t i s possi bl e t o foresee some of t he maj or chal l enges t hat devel oping
count ri es will encount er i n est i mat i ng and report ing emi ssions and removal s from
deforest at i on, forest degr adat i on and management of f orest s. I n part i cul ar, what
di ffi cul ti es can be expect ed i f t he fi ve pri nci pl es out lined above ar e r equired for REDD+
reporti ng?
Whil e speci fi c count ri es may encount er di ffi cult ies in meet i ng t ranspar ency, consi st ency
and compar abili t y pri nci pl es, i t i s li kel y t hat most count ri es wi ll be abl e t o fulfi ll these
pri nci pl es reasonabl y well aft er adequat e capaci t y buil di ng. I n cont rast , based on t he
current moni t oring and reporti ng capabi liti es, t he pri nci pl es of compl et eness and
accur acy will li kel y represent maj or chal l enges for most developing count ri es, especi all y
for est i mat i ng t he reference l evel .
Achi eving t he complet eness princi pl e wi ll clearl y depend on t he processes ( e.g.
deforest at i on, forest degr adat i on, management of forest s) i nvol ved, t he pool s and gases
t hat needed t o be report ed, and t he f orest - r el at ed defi ni tions t hat are appli ed. For
exampl e, evi dence from offi ci al report s ( e.g., NAI nat i onal communi cat i ons t o UNFCCC
61
,
FAO’s FRA 2005
62
) suggest s t hat onl y a very small fract i on of devel oping count ri es
current l y report s dat a on soil carbon, even t hough emi ssi ons f rom soil s following
deforest at i on are li kel y t o be si gnifi cant i n many cases.
I f accurat e est i mat es of emi ssions and removal s ar e t o be report ed, reli abl e
met hodologi es are needed as well as a quant ifi cat i on of t hei r uncert ai nti es. For key
cat egori es and si gnifi cant pool s, t hi s i mpli es t he appli cat i on of higher t i ers, i .e. havi ng
count ry- speci fi c dat a on all t he si gni fi cant pool s st rat i fi ed by cli mat e, forest , soil and
conversi on t ype at a fine t o medium spat i al scal e. Al t hough adequat e met hods exi st ( as
outli ned in t he previ ous chapt ers of t he sourcebook) , and t he capaci t y for moni toring
GHG fl uxes from deforest at i on i s i mproving, in many developing count ri es accurat e dat a
on deforest ed areas and carbon st ocks ar e st i ll scarce and all ocat i ng si gnifi cant ext r a
resources for moni toring may be di ffi cul t in t he near fut ure.


61
UNFCCC. 2005. Si xt h compi l ati on and synt hesi s of i ni ti al nat i onal communi cat i ons from Part i es not i ncl uded
i n Annex I t o t he Convent i on. FCCC/ SBI / 2005/ 18/ Add.2
62
Food and Agri cul t ure Or gani zat i on. 2006. Gl obal Forest Resources Assessment .
2- 119
I n t hi s cont ext , how coul d t he obst acl e of pot ent i all y incompl et e and hi ghl y uncert ai n
REDD+ reporti ng be overcome?
2. 8. 4 The conservativeness approach
To address t he pot ent i al incompl et eness and t he uncert ai nti es of REDD+ est i mat es, and
t hus t o increase t hei r credi bil it y, i t has been proposed t o use t he approach of
“ conservat i veness” . Al though conservat i veness i s, st ri ct l y speaki ng, an accounting
concept , i t s consi derat i on during the est i mat i on and reporting phases may hel p, for
exampl e, i n all ocat i ng resources i n a cost - eff ect ive way ( e.g. see sect i on 2.8.4.1) .
I n t he REDD+ cont ext , conservat i veness means t hat - when compl et eness or accuracy of
est i mat es cannot be achi eved - t he reduct i on of emi ssions and t he i ncrease of carbon
st ocks shoul d not be overest i mat ed, or at l east t he ri sk of overest i mat i on should be
mini mi zed.
Al t hough t hi s approach may appear new t o some, i t i s al ready present i n t he UNFCCC
cont ext , even i f somehow “ hi dden” i n t echni cal document s. For exampl e, t he procedur e
for adj ust ment s under Art 5.2 of t he Kyot o Prot ocol works as fol lows
63
: if an AI Part y
report s t o UNFCCC emi ssions or removal s in a manner t hat i s not consi st ent wi t h I PCC
met hodologi es and woul d gi ve benefi t for t he Part y, e.g. an overest i mat ion of sinks or
underest i mat i on of emi ssi ons in a gi ven year of t he commi t ment peri od, t hen t hi s woul d
li kel y t ri gger an “ adj ust ment ” , i .e., a change appli ed by an independent expert revi ew
t eam ( ERT) t o t he Part y’s report ed est i mat es. I n t hi s procedure, t he ERT may fi rst
subst i t ut e t he ori ginal est i mat e wi t h a new one ( gener all y based on a def aul t I PCC
est i mat e, i .e. a Ti er 1) and t hen - gi ven t he hi gh uncert aint y of t hi s new est i mat e -
mul ti pl y i t by a t abul at ed cat egory- speci fi c “ conservat i veness f act or” ( see Fi gure 2.8.1) .
Diff erences i n conservat i veness fact ors bet ween cat egori es refl ect t ypi cal differences in
t ot al uncert ai nti es, and t hus conser vat i veness f act ors have a hi gher i mpact for
cat egori es or component s t hat ar e expect ed t o be more uncert ai n (based on t he
uncert ai nt y ranges of I PCC defaul t values or on exper t j udgment ). I n t hi s way, t he
conservat i veness fact or act s t o decr ease t he ri sk of underest i mat i ng emi ssi ons or
overest i mat i ng removal s i n t he commi t ment period. I n t he case of t he base year, t he
opposi t e appli es. I n ot her words, t he conser vat i veness f act or may increase t he “ quali t y”
of an est i mat e, e.g. decr easi ng t he hi gh “ri sk” of a Ti er 1 est i mat e up t o a l evel t ypi cal of
a Ti er 3 est i mat e. Of course, t he ext ent of t he correct i on depends al so on t he l evel of t he
confidence int erval
64
: for exampl e, by t aking the lower bound of the 50% or 95%
confidence i nt erval means, respect i vel y, having 25% or 2.5% probabil it y of
overest i mat i ng t he “ t rue” value of the emi ssions (in case of Art . 5.2 of t he Kyot o
Prot ocol t he 50% confi dence i nt erval i s used) . By cont rast , by t aki ng the mean val ue
( and assumi ng a normal di st ribution) t here i s an equal chance ( 50%) for over- and
under- est i mat i on of t he t rue val ue.


63
UNFCCC 2006. Good pract ice guidance and adj ust ment s under Art icle 5, paragraph 2, of t he
Kyot o Prot ocol FCCC/ KP/ CMP/ 2005/ 8/ Add. 3 Decision 20/ CMP. 1
64
The conf idence int erval is a range t hat encloses t he t rue ( but unknown) value wit h a specif ied
conf idence ( probabilit y) . E.g. , t he 95 % conf idence int erval has a 95% probabilit y of enclosing t he
t rue value.
2- 120
Figure 2.8 .1. Concept ual exampl e of t he appli cat i on of a conser vat i veness f act or during
t he adj ust ment procedure under Art . 5.2 of t he Kyot o Prot ocol. The bracket i ndi cat es t he
ri sk of overest i mat i ng t he t rue val ue, whi ch i s hi gh if, f or exampl e, a Ti er 1 est i mat e i s
used. Mul ti pl ying t hi s est i mat e by a conservat iveness f act or ( in t hi s case 0.7) , deri ved
from cat egory- speci fi c t abul at ed confi dence int erval s, means decr easi ng t he ri sk of
overest i mat i ng t he t rue val ue.


Anot her exampl e comes from t he modal i ti es for afforest at i on and reforest at ion proj ect
act i vi ti es under t he Cl ean Development Mechani sm ( CDM)
65
, whi ch prescri bes t hat “ t he
basel i ne shall be est abli shed i n a t ransparent and conservat i ve manner regardi ng t he
choi ce of approaches, assumpt i ons, met hodologi es, par amet ers, dat a sources, …and
t aki ng i nt o account uncert aint y” .
Furt hermore, t he concept of conservat i veness i s impli ci t ly present al so el sewher e. For
exampl e, t he Marr akech Accords speci fy t hat , under Arti cl es 3.3 and 3.4 of t he Kyot o
Prot ocol, Annex I Part i es “may choose not t o account for a gi ven pool if t ransparent and
veri fi abl e i nformat i on i s provi ded t hat t he pool i s not a source” , whi ch means appl ying
conservat i veness t o an i ncompl et e est i mat e. I n addi ti on, t he I PCC GPG- LULUCF ( 2003)
indi cat es t he use of t he Reli abl e Mi ni mum Estimat e (Chapt er 2.8.3) as a t ool to assess
changes in soil carbon, whi ch means appl yi ng conservat i veness t o an uncert ai n est i mat e.
Very recent l y, t hi s concept ent ered al so in t he t ext of ongoing REDD+ negot i ati ons66,
where among t he met hodologi cal i ssues i denti fi ed for furt her considerat i on i t was
incl uded “Means t o deal wi t h uncert ai nti es i n est i mat es ai mi ng t o ensure t hat reduct i ons
in emi ssions or i ncreases i n removal s ar e not over- est i mat ed” .
However, al t hough t he usefulness of t he conservat i veness concept seems l argel y
accept ed, i t s appli cat ion in t he REDD+ cont ext cl earl y needs some gui dance. I n ot her
words: how to i mpl ement , in pract i ce, t he conservat i veness approach t o t he REDD+
cont ext ? To t hi s ai m, t he next t wo sect i ons show some exampl es on how t he
conservat i veness approach may be appli ed t o a REDD+ mechani sm when est i mat es ar e
incompl et e or uncert ai n, respect i vel y.
2.8 .4.1 Addressing incomplet e est imat es
I t i s li kel y t hat a t ypi cal and i mport ant exampl e of incompl et e est i mat es will ari se from
t he l ack of rel i abl e dat a f or a carbon pool , and especi al l y t he soil pool. I n t hi s case, bei ng
conservat i ve i n a REDD+ cont ext does not mean “ not overest i mat i ng t he emi ssi ons” , but


65
UNFCCC 2006. Modalit ies and procedures f or af forest at ion and ref or est at ion proj ect act ivit ies
under t he clean development mechanism in t he f irst commit ment period of t he Kyot o Prot ocol
Decision 5/ CMP. 1
66
ht t p: / / unfccc. int / resource/ docs/ 2008/ sbst a/ eng/ l12. pdf
100
70
2- 121
rat her “ not over est i mat i ng t he reduct i on of emi ssi ons” . I f soil i s not account ed for, t he
t ot al emi ssions from deforest at i on will very li kel y be underest i mat ed in bot h periods.
However, assumi ng for t he most di saggregat ed report ed l evel ( e.g., a forest t ype
convert ed t o cropl and) the same emi ssion fact or (C st ock change/ ha) in the t wo peri ods,
and provi ded t hat t he area deforest ed i s reduced from t he r efer ence t o t he assessment
period, al so t he reduced emi ssi ons wi ll be underest i mat ed. I n ot her words, al t hough
negl ect ing soi l carbon wi ll cause a REDD+ est imat e whi ch i s not compl et e, t hi s est i mat e
will be conservat i ve ( see Tabl e 2.8.1) and t herefore shoul d not be consi dered a probl em.
However, t hi s assumpt i on of conservat i ve omi ssion of a pool i s not val i d anymore i f , for
a gi ven forest conversi on t ype, t he ar ea deforest ed i s increased from t he ref erence l evel
t o t he assessment period; in such case, any pool whi ch i s a source should be est i mat ed
and report ed.
Table 2 .8.1. Si mpli fi ed exampl e of how i gnori ng a carbon pool may produce a
conservat i ve est i mat e of reduced emi ssions from deforest at i on. The reference l evel
mi ght be assessed on t he basi s of hi st ori cal emi ssi ons: (a) compl et e est i mat e, i ncluding
t he soi l pool , and ( b) incompl et e est i mat e, as t he soil pool i s mi ssi ng. The l at t er est i mat e
of reduced emi ssi ons i s not accurat e, but i s conservat i ve.

2.8 .4.2 Addressing uncert ain est imat es
Assumi ng t hat during t he “ est i mat ion phase” t he Part y carri es out all t he pract i cal effort s
t o produce accurat e and preci se REDD+ est i mat es ( i .e., t o reduce uncert ai nti es) , as well
as t o quant i fy t he uncert ai nti es accordi ng t o t he I PCC gui dance, her e we suggest a
si mpl e approach t o deal wi t h at l east part of t he remai ning uncert ai nti es.
Si mi l arl y t o t he adj ust ment procedure under Art . 5.2 of t he Kyot o Prot ocol (see before) ,
we propose t o use t he confidence i nt erval in a conservat i ve way, i .e. t o decrease t he
probabi li t y of produci ng an error in t he unwant ed di rect i on. Speci fi cal l y, here we bri efl y
present t wo possi bl e approaches t o i mpl ement t hi s concept :
Approach A) : t he conservat i ve est i mat e of REDD+ i s deri ved from t he uncert ai nti es of
bot h t he ref erence and t he assessment periods. Foll owing t he i dea of t he Reli abl e
Mini mum Est i mat e ( I PCC GPG LULUCF 2003) , t he ai m i s t o decr ease bot h t he ri sk of
overest i mat i ng t he emi ssions in reference l evel and t he ri sk of underest i mat ing t he
emi ssi ons i n t he assessment period. Therefore, t hi s approach cal cul at es t he di ff erence
bet ween t he l ower bound of t he confi dence int erval (i .e., downward correct i on) of
Carbon st ock change
( t C/ ha deforest ed)

Emissions
( area deforest ed x C st ock
change, t C x 10
3
)

Area
defore
st ed
( ha x
10
3
)


Above-
ground
Biomass
Soi l


Aboveground
Biomass + Soil
Onl y Above-
ground
Biomass
Refer ence
l evel
10 100 50 1500 1000
Assessment
peri od
5 100 50 750 500
Reduct i on of emi ssions
(reference l evel - assessment peri od, t C x 10
3
)
750 ( a) 500 ( b)
2- 122
emi ssi ons i n t he ref erence l evel and t he hi gher bound of t he confi dence i nt erval (i .e.,
upward correct i on) of emi ssions in the assessment peri od ( see Fi g. 2.8.2.A) .
Approach B): t he conser vat i ve est i mat e of REDD+ i s deri ved from t he uncert ai nt y of t he
di fference of emi ssi ons bet ween t he ref erence and t he assessment period ( uncert ai nt y of
t he t rend, I PCC 2006 GL, as i llust rat ed i n Fi g. 2.8.2.B) . From a concept ual poi nt of vi ew,
t hi s approach appear s more appropri at e t han approach A for t he REDD+ cont ext , si nce
t he emi ssi on reduct ion ( and t he associ at ed t r end uncert ai nt y) i s more i mport ant t hat t he
absol ut e l evel of uncert ai nt y of emi ssi ons in the refer ence and assessment peri od. A
peculi ari t y of t he uncert ai nt y i n t he t rend i s t hat i t i s ext r emel y dependent on whet her
uncert ai nti es of i nput s dat a ( Act i vi t y Dat a, AD, and Emi ssion Fact or, EF) are correl at ed
or not bet ween t he ref er ence and t he assessment peri od. I n parti cul ar, if t he uncert ai nt y
i s correl at ed bet ween peri ods i t does not affect t he % uncert ai nt y of t he t rend ( see Ch.
2. 7.3 for furt her di scussi on on correl at i on of uncert ai nti es) . I n uncert ai nt y anal yses of
GHG i nvent ori es, no correl at i on i s t ypi call y assumed for act i vi t y dat a i n dif ferent years,
and a perfect posi ti ve correl at i on bet ween emi ssion fact ors i s assumed i n different years.
Thi s i s t he basi c assumpt i on gi ven by t he I PCC (I PCC 2006 GL) , whi ch we consi der li kel y
al so in the REDD+ cont ext .
Figure 2.8 .2. Wi t h approach A (l ef t ), t he conservat i ve est i mat e of REDD+ i s cal cul at ed
based on t he uncert ai nti es of bot h t he reference and t he assessment peri od ( a - b) . Wi t h
approach B ( ri ght ), t he conservat i ve est i mat e of REDD+ i s deri ved from t he uncert aint y
of t he di fference of emi ssions bet ween t he reference and t he assessment period
( uncert ai nt y of t he t rend) .






Furt her di scussi ons on possi bl e ways of appl yi ng conservat i veness t o uncert ai n est i mat es
may be found in Grassi et al . ( 2008) .
Our proposal of correct i ng conservat i vel y t he REDD+ est i mat es may be pot ent i all y
appl i ed t o t hose est i mat es whi ch do not fulfil l the I PCC’s good pract i ce principl es ( e.g. i f
a key cat egory i s est i mat ed wi t h ti er 1: count ry-speci fi c est i mat es of AD combi ned wi th
I PCC- defaul t EF) . I n t hi s case, t he correct ions could be based on t he uncert ai nti es of AD
quant ifi ed by t he count ry appropri at el y combi ned t o t he def aul t uncert ai nti es of EF used
under Art . 5.2 for the vari ous cat egori es and C pool s.
Our proposal of correct ing conservat i vel y t he REDD+ est i mat es may be based on t he
uncert ai nti es quant i fi ed by t he count ry when est i mat ed i n a robust way ( t hat will be
subj ect t o subsequent r evi ew) . I n absence of such est i mat es from t he count ry, t he
confidence i nt erval s may be deri ved from t abul at ed cat egory-speci fi c uncert ai nt i es,
possi bl y produced by t he I PCC or ot her i ndependent bodi es ( as i n t he case of Art . 5.2 of
t he Kyot o Protocol ) .
r ef er ence assessment
per i od per iod
e
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

r
e
d
u
c
e
d

e
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

A
B
a
b
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I n any case, during t he revi ew phase, t he r eport ed AD and EF wil l be anal yzed. I f t he
revi ew concludes t hat t he met hodology used i s not consi st ent wi t h recommended
gui deli nes by I PCC or wi th t he UNFCCC’ s pri nci pl es, and may produce overest i mat ed
REDD+ dat a, t he probl em coul d be addressed by appl ying a defaul t fact or mul tipli ed by a
conservat i ve fact or ( as al ready descri bed for Art. 5.2 under t he Kyot o Prot ocol) .
2.8 .4.3 Conclusion: conservativeness is a win- win opt ion
The I PCC defines i nvent ori es consi st ent wi t h good pract i ce as t hose whi ch cont ai n
nei ther over- nor underest i mat es so far as can be j udged, and i n whi ch uncert ainti es ar e
reduced as f ar as pr act i cabl e. Consequent l y, al so REDD+ est i mat es should be compl et e,
accur at e and preci se. However, once t he count ry has carri ed out all t he pract i cal effort s
in thi s di rect ion, i f st ill some aspect s do not fulfill t he I PCC’s good pract i ce ( e.g. i f a key
cat egory i s not est i mat ed wi t h t he proper t i er, or i f t he emi ssi ons from a si gnifi cant C
pool i s not est i mat ed) , t he remai ning probl ems coul d be pot enti all y addressed wi t h t he
conservat i veness concept , t o ensure t hat r educt ions i n emi ssi ons or increases i n
removal s ar e not over- est i mat ed. To t hi s aim, in Sect i ons 2.8.4.1 and 2.8. 4.2 we
present ed exampl es of how t he conservat i veness approach can be appli ed t o an
incompl et e est i mat e ( e. g., an omi ssion of a pool ) and t o an uncert ai n est i mat e. I n t he
REDD+ cont ext , t he conservat i veness approach has t he fol lowi ng advant ages:
 I t may i ncrease t he robust ness, t he envi ronment al int egri t y and t he credi bili t y of
any REDD+ mechani sm, by decr easi ng t he risk t hat economi c i ncent i ves ar e
gi ven t o undemonst rat ed reduct i ons of emi ssi on. Thi s shoul d hel p convi ncing
poli cymaker s, i nvest ors and NGOs in indust riali zed count ri es t hat robust and
credi bl e REDD+ est i mat es ar e possi bl e.
 I t rewards t he quali t y of the est i mat es. I ndeed, more accurat e/ pr eci se est i mat es
of deforest at i on, or a more compl et e coverage of C pool (e.g., i ncludi ng soil) , wi ll
li kel y t ransl at e in hi gher REDD+ est i mat es, t hus all owing t o cl ai m for more
incent i ves. Thus, i f a REDD+ mechani sm st art s wi t h conservat i veness, pr eci sion
and accur acy will li kel y follow.
 I t al lows fl exi bl e moni toring requirement s: si nce t he quali t y of t he est i mat es i s
rewarded, i t could al so be envi saged as a syst em in whi ch - provi ded t hat
conservat i veness i s sat i sfi ed, - Part i es ar e al lowed t o choose t hemsel ves what
pool t o est i mat e and at whi ch l evel of accuracy/ preci sion (i .e. Ti er) , dependi ng on
t hei r own cost - benefi t anal ysi s and nat ional ci rcumst ances.
 I t st i mul at es a broader part i ci pat i on, i .e. allows devel opi ng count ri es t o j oin t he
REDD+ mechani sm even i f t hey cannot provi de accurat e/ preci se est i mat es for all
carbon pool s or key cat egori es, and t hus decr eases t he ri sk of emi ssi on
di spl acement from one count ry t o anot her.
 I t i ncreases t he comparabil i t y of est i mat es across count ri es – a fundament al
UNFCCC report i ng pri nci pl e - and al so t he fai rness of t he di st ri buti on of event ual
posi ti ve i ncent i ves.
2. 8. 5 Key references for chapt er 2. 8
Grassi G, Monni S, Federi ci S, Achard F, Moll i cone D ( 2008) : Appl ying t he
conservat i veness pri nci pl e t o REDD+ to deal wit h t he uncert ai nti es of t he est i mat es.
Environment al Research Let t ers, 3: 035005.
Mol licone D, Frei bauer A, Schul ze E- D, Braat z S, Grassi G, Federi ci S (2007) : El ement s
for t he expect ed mechani sms on Reduced Emi ssi ons from Deforest at i on and
Degradat i on ( REDD) under UNFCCC. Environment al Resear ch Let t er s 2: 045024

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2.9 STATUS OF EVOLVI NG TECHNOLOGI ES
Sandra Brown, Winrock I nt ernat i onal , USA
Mi chael Fal kowski , Uni versi t y of I daho, USA
Scot t Goet z, Woods Hol e Resear ch Cent er, USA
Mart i n Herol d, Wageningen Uni versi t y, The Net herl ands
Yasumasa Hi rat a, Forest r y and Forest Product I nst i t ut e, Japan
Josef Kellndorf er, Woods Hol e Research Cent er, USA
Eri c Lambin, Uni versi t y of Louvai n- La- Neuve, Belgium
Rebecca Moore, Googl e.org, USA
Eri k Næsset , Depart ment of Ecology and Nat ural Resource Management , Norway
Ross Nel son, NASA- Goddard Space Fli ght Cent er, USA
Mi chael Wulder, Canadi an Forest Servi ce, Canada
2. 9. 1 Scope of chapter
The met hods descri be el sewher e i n t hi s sourcebook provi de readil y avai l abl e approaches
t o est i mat e and report on carbon emi ssions and removal s from deforest at i on and forest
degr adat i on foll owing t he I PCC gui dance; wi t h emphasi s on t he hi st ori cal peri od. I n
addi tion, new t echnol ogi es and approaches ar e bei ng devel oped for moni t ori ng changes
in forest area and carbon st ocks. I n t hi s sect i on t hese evol vi ng t echnologi es and dat a
sources ar e descri bed, t aki ng into account t he following consi derat i ons:
 The approaches have been demonst r at ed i n proj ect st udi es, and, t hus, ar e
pot ent i all y useful and appropri at e for REDD+ impl ement at i on but have not been
operat i onall y used for forest / carbon st ock change moni t oring on t he nat i onal l evel
for carbon account ing and reporting purposes.
 They may provi de dat a and cert aint y i n addi tion t o t he approach descri bed
el sewher e, i .e. t o overcome known l imi t at ions of opt i cal sat ell i t e dat a i n
persi st ent l y cl oudy part s of t he t ropi cs.
 Dat a and approaches may not be avail abl e f or all devel oping count ry areas
int erest ed in REDD.
 I mpl ement at i on usuall y requi res an addi ti onal amount of resources ( i .e. cost ,
nat i onal moni tori ng capaci ti es et c.) .
 Furt her pil ot cases and i nt ernat i onal coordi nat ion are needed t o furt her t est and
i mpl ement t hese t echnologi es i n a REDD+ cont ext .
 Thei r utili t y may be enhanced i n coming year s dependi ng on dat a acqui si tion,
access and sci enti fi c devel opment s.
The i nt ention here i s not t o descri be t he sui t e of evol vi ng t echnol ogi es in al l det ai l . The
di scussions should build awar eness of t hese t echni ques, provi de basi c background
informat i on and expl ai n t hei r general approaches, pot ent i al s and li mi t ati ons. The opti ons
t o event ual l y use t hem for nat ional forest moni toring act i vi ti es woul d depend on speci fi c
count ry ci rcumst ances.

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2. 9. 2 Role of LI DAR observat ions
2.9 .2.1 Background and charact erist ics
LI DAR ( LI ght Det ect i on And Ranging) sensors use l asers t o di rect l y measure t he t hree-
di mensi onal di st ri buti on of veget at i on canopi es as well as sub- canopy t opography,
resul ting in accurat e est i mat es of bot h veget at ion hei ght and ground el evat i on
( Boudreau et al ., 2008) . Of especi al int erest f or REDD+ moni t oring, LI DAR i s t he onl y
remot e sensi ng t echnology t o provi de measures t hat have demonst rat ed a non-
asympt ot i c rel at ionship wi th biomass ( Drake et al ., 2003) . LI DAR syst ems ar e cl assi fi ed
as ei t her di scret e ret urn or full wavef orm sampling syst ems, and may furt her be
char act eri zed by whet her t hey are profil ing syst ems ( i .e., recording onl y along a narrow
t ransect ) , or scanning syst ems ( i .e., recordi ng across a wi der swat h) . Ful l waveform
sampl ing LI DAR syst ems gener all y have a more coarse hori zont al spat i al resol ution (i .e.,
a l arge foot print : 10 – 100 m) combi ned wi th a fine and full y digi ti zed vert i cal spat i al
resoluti on, resul t ing in full sub- met er vert i cal profi les. Full waveform LI DARs ar e
gener al l y profi ling syst ems and are most commonl y used for research purposes.
Al t hough t here ar e currentl y no syst ems t hat provi de l arge- foot pri nt full waveform
LI DAR dat a commer ci al l y, t he Geosci ence Laser Al ti met er Syst em ( GLAS) onboard t he
NASA I ce, Cl oud and l and El evat ion Sat el li t e (I CESat ) i s a l arge- foot print full waveform
LI DAR syst em t hat may be used for forest charact eri zat i on and for t he devel opment of
gener al i zed product s for modeling (Næsset , 2002) . For exampl e, dat a from GLAS i s
current l y bei ng used t o deri ve forest canopy hei ght and aboveground biomass for t he
gl obe. The GLAS sensor has a hori zont al foot pri nt of ~ 65 m wi t h an al ong- t rack post
spaci ng of 172 m, and a maxi mum across- t r ack post spacing of 15 km at t he equat or.
The t hird and final l aser on I CESat I / GLAS f ailed on Oct ober 19, 2008, but t he I CESat
t eam i s, as of Oct ober/ November 2008, at t empt i ng t o rest art l aser 2. I f i t can be
rest art ed, GLAS wil l continue t o t ake spring/ fall measurement s until l aser fail ure
Di scret e ret urn LI DAR syst ems ( wi t h a small foot print si ze of 0.1 – 2 m) t ypi call y record
one t o fi ve ret urns per l aser foot pri nt and are opt i mi zed for t he deri vat ion of sub- met er
accur acy t errai n surface el evat i ons. These syst ems ar e used commerci all y for a wi de
range of appli cat ions including t opographi c mappi ng, power line right - of- way surveys,
engi neering, and nat ural resource char act eri zat i on. Di scret e r et urn scanning LI DAR
yi el ds a t hree- di mensi onal cl oud of point s, wi t h t he lower poi nt s represent ing the ground
and t he upper poi nt s represent ing t he canopy. One of t he fi rst st eps undert aken when
processi ng LI DAR dat a invol ves t he separ at i on of ground versus non- ground (i.e.,
canopy) hi t s—a funct i on t hat i s oft en undert aken by LI DAR dat a provi ders using soft war e
such as TerraScan, LP360, or t he dat a provi der' s own propri et ar y soft war e. Anal ysi s can
commence once al l LI DAR poi nt s have been cl assi fi ed into ground or non- ground ret urns.
Ground hi t s are t ypi cal l y gridded t o produce a bare ear t h Di gi t al El evat i on Model ( DEM)
usi ng st andard sof t ware approaches such as t ri angul at ed i rregul ar net works, nearest
nei ghbour int erpol at ion, or spline met hods. As t he poi nt spaci ng of t he LI DAR
observat ions i s si gnifi cant l y finer t han t he spat i al det ai l t ypi call y observabl e on aeri al
photography, t he DEMs gener at ed from LI DAR oft en cont ai n si gnifi cantl y more hori zont al
and vert i cal resol uti on t han el evat i on model s gener at ed f rom moderat e scal e aeri al
photography ( Li m et al ., 2003) .
2.9 .2.2 Experiences for monitoring purposes
To dat e, resear ch and devel opment act i vi ti es have focused upon using LI DAR as t ool for
char act eri zi ng vert i cal forest st ruct ure - pri maril y t he est i mat i on of t ree and st and
hei ght s, wi t h vol ume, biomass, and carbon al so of i nt erest . Wi t h increasi ng avai l abili t y
of LI DAR dat a, forest manager s have seen opport uni ti es for usi ng LI DAR t o meet a wi der
range of forest i nvent ory informat i on needs. For i nst ance, hei ght est i mat es gener at ed
from ai rborne remot el y sensed LI DAR dat a have been found t o be of si mil ar, or bet t er
accur acy t han corresponding fi el d-based est i mat es and st udi es have demonst rat ed t hat
t he LI DAR measurement error for indi vi dual t ree hei ght ( of a gi ven speci es) i s l ess t han
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1. 0 m and l ess t han 0.5 m for pl ot - based est i mat es of maxi mum and mean canopy
hei ght wi th ful l canopy closure. Addi tional at t ri but es, such as vol ume, biomass, and
crown cl osure, are al so well charact eri zed wi t h LI DAR dat a.
Scanni ng LI DAR i s t ypi cal l y used t o col l ect dat a wi t h a ful l geographi cal coverage (“ wall -
t o-wall ” ) of t he area of int erest . Forest i nvent ory provi ding det ail ed informat ion of
indi vidual forest st ands for pl anning and management purposes i s r api dl y increasi ng t o
become a st andard met hod for forest invent ory of t erri t ori es wi t h a si ze of 50-50,000
km2. Scanni ng LI DAR t echnol ogy i s current l y bei ng used or t est ed gl oball y for
operat i onal invent ory, pre- oper at i onal t ri al s, or t o gener at e proj ect speci fi c sub- set s of
forest at t ri but es ( incl udi ng biomass) .
A basi c requi rement for invent ory and monit oring of forest r esources and biomass i s t he
avail abil it y of ground measurement usi ng conventional fi eld pl ot s. Ground measurement s
are requi red t o est abli sh rel at i onshi ps bet ween t he t hree- di mensi onal propert i es of t he
LI DAR poi nt cl oud ( e.g. canopy hei ght and canopy densi t y) and t he t arget bi ophysi cal
properti es of int erest , li ke for exampl e biomass, usi ng paramet ri c or nonparamet ri c
st at i st i cal t echni ques. Once such rel at ionships have been est abl i shed, t he t arget
bi ophysi cal properti es can be predi ct ed wi t h hi gh accur acy for t he enti re area of i nt erest
for whi ch LI DAR dat a ar e avail abl e.
For moni tori ng of l arger t erri tori es, li ke provinces, nat i ons or even across nat i ons, such a
t wo- st age procedure can even be used i n a sampling mode, where t he ai rborne LI DAR
inst rument i s used as a sampl ing devi ce. Opt ical remot el y sensed i mager y and ot her
spat i al dat a can be used t o ai d in st rat i fi cat ion, supporti ng sampli ng guidance and
subsequent est i mat i on. Profili ng as wel l as scanni ng LI DAR inst rument s can be flown
al ong st ri ps separat ed by many ki lomet ers, dependi ng on t he desi red sampling
proportion. Thus, t he LI DAR dat a can be used t o provi de a convent i onal sampl ing- based
st at i st i cal est i mat e of biomass or changes i n amount of bi omass over t i me. A sampl e of
convent ional ground plot s of a nat ion may for exampl e cover on t he order of 0. 0003% of
t he ent i re popul at i on in quest ion ( assuming a 10× 10 km
2
spaci ng bet ween pl ot s wi t h si ze
300 m
2
) , wher eas a sampl e of scanni ng LI DAR dat a col l ect ed along st ri ps fl own over t he
same fi el d plot s wi ll consti t ut e a sampl e of 5-10% of t he popul at ion. Because bi omass
and canopy propert i es deri ved from LI DAR dat a are hi ghl y correl at ed, LI DAR combi ned
wi th fi el d dat a has been demonst r at ed t o i mprove t he measurement eff i ci ency and t o
i mprove accuracy and/ or reduce cost s ( i n compari son t o fi el d based measures) .
Sampling wi t h profil ing LI DAR was demonst r at ed in Del aware ( ~ 5,000 km
2
) , USA, a few
year s ago. By i nt roducing a t hi rd st age, i .e., LI DAR dat a from sat elli t e ( I CESat / GLAS) ,
and combini ng t hese dat a wi t h ai rborne profil ing LI DAR and fi el d dat a, i t has been shown
t hat f ai rl y l arge t erri t ori es can be sampl ed wi t h l asers for biomass est i mat i on. Recent l y,
est i mat es of biomass and carbon st ocks wer e provi ded for t he ent i re province of Quebec
( ~ 1,270,000 km
2
) , Canada. A par all el devel opment of t he t echni cal procedures and a
st at i st i cal framework i s now t aki ng pl ace and bei ng demonst rat ed for scanni ng LI DAR in
Hedmark Count y ( ~ 25,000 km
2
) , Norway.
Demonst r at i ons of bi omass assessment over l arger ar eas of in t ropi cal forest have so far
not t aken pl ace. However, a number of experi ment s wi t h ai rborne LI DAR i n t ropi cal
forest have shown t hat t here exi st st rong relat i onships bet ween bi omass ( and ot her
bi ophysi cal properti es) and LI DAR dat a. Unl i ke ot her remot e sensi ng t echniques, such as
opti cal remot e sensi ng and SAR, LI DAR does not suffer from sat urat i on probl ems
associ at ed wi t h high bi omass val ues. LI DAR has proven t o be capabl e of di scri minat ing
bet ween biomass val ues up t o > 1,300 Mg ha
- 1
. Thus, ai rborne and spaceborne LI DAR
are li kel y t o have great pot ent i al s as sampl ing tool s, especi all y in topi cal forest s.
Moni toring cost s when usi ng ai rborne LI DAR are vari abl e. I n general , users can expect
some el ement s of t he cost ing st ruct ure t o be si mil ar to air phot o acqui si ti on, i ncluding
fl yi ng t i me and rel at ed fuel cost s. Furt her, economi es of scal e are al so t o be consi dered,
whereby l arger proj ect ar eas can l ead t o a r educt i on i n per uni t area cost s. Large
acqui si ti on areas al so mean l ess t i me i s spent t urning t he ai rcraft and more t i me act uall y
acqui ri ng dat a. Report ed cost s for LI DAR surveys vary wi del y, but lower cost s per
hect ar e can be expect ed for l arger proj ect s. Processi ng t o meet proj ect speci fi c
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informat i on needs will al so resul t i n addi ti onal cost s. I n Europe, compar abl e cost s for
Li DAR dat a coll ect ion in operat i onal forest i nvent ory are at t he moment < $0.5- 1.0 per
hect ar e when t he proj ect s are of a cert ai n si ze. Pri ces in Sout h Ameri ca usi ng l ocal dat a
provi ders ( e.g. Brazili an compani es) are t ypi cally hi gher. The si tuat i on i s l i kel y t o be t he
same i n Afri ca usi ng local dat a provi ders ( e.g. South Afri can dat a provi ders) . Recent bi ds
for a REDD+ demonst rat ion in Tanzani a f rom European dat a provi ders indi cat e pri ces for
“ wal l - t o- wall ” LI DAR dat a acqui si ti on on t he order of $0.5- 1.0 per hect ar e. However,
when LI DAR i s used t o sampl e a l andscape, say a t erri tory on t he order of 1,000,000
km2, a margi nal cost per km fl ight line of ~ $30- 40 can be ant i ci pat ed i n (e.g., east ern
Afri ca) . Thus, by a sampling proportion of for exampl e 1% and a swat h wi dt h of 1 km, i t
should be feasi bl e t o sampl e a 1,000,000 km2 l andscape for a t ot al cost of about
$300,000- 400,000.
2.9 .2.3 Area of cont ribution t o exist ing I PCC land sect or report ing
Ground pl ot informat i on i s an i mport ant component of most moni toring schemes
incl uding t hose focused on REDD. LI DAR deri ved measures can work in an i nt egrat ed
fashion wi th ground- based surveys; wher eby, ground plot s can be used t o cali brat e and
vali dat e LI DAR measures, and at t ri but es emul at i ng ground bases measures can be
deri ved from t he LI DAR dat a, ul ti mat el y increasing t he overall sampl e si ze. I n t hi s way,
LI DAR offers opport uni ti es f or an al t ernat i ve met hod of fi el d measurement . Degr adat i on
of forest s i n many cases i s di ffi cul t to det ect and charact eri ze. Opt i cal remot el y sensed
dat a i s a key dat a source for capt uri ng change and can be r el at ed t o degr adat ion. Si nce
LI DAR capt ures t he vert i cal di st ri buti on and st ruct ure of forest s, i nt egrat i ng LI DAR wi th
opti cal remot el y sensed change dat a can be used t o indi cat e t he car bon consequences of
t he changes present .
LI DAR has bot h hi gh vert i cal and hori zont al resoluti ons affording fine, fi el d plot -li ke
measures t o be made. These fi ne- scal e measures can be used t o emul at e ground dat a,
t o cal ibrat e and validat e model out comes, t o i nform on t he carbon consequences of
deforest at i on and degradat i on, and t o locat e and enabl e char act eri zat i on of forest gaps
int roduced over t i me. The cont ext and i nformat ion needs of REDD+ must be consi dered
when ai mi ng t o det er mine t he ut il it y of LI DAR measurement s ( incl udi ng t he value of
increased accuracy and preci sion of measures and / or t he abi li t y t o bet t er char act eri ze
error budget s associ at ed wi t h mapped or est i mat ed measures) .
2.9 .2.4 Dat a availabilit y and required nat ional capacities
Bot h ai r- and space- borne dat a are avai l abl e. The ai rborne dat a source can be
consi dered gl obal l y avail abl e, wi t h coverage on- demand, procured vi a cont ract i ng wi th
commerci al agenci es on a gl obal basi s. Whil e LI DAR dat a i s broadl y avail abl e, t he
appl i cat i ons uses are more focused on util it y corri dor charact eri zat i on and el evat ion
model devel opment . Oper at i onal forest char act eri zat i on i s l ess common, t ypi call y
requi ring fi eld support and cust om al gori thms. Spaceborne LI DAR i s al so avail abl e
gl obal l y, wi t h a number of caveat s. NASA is supporting t he product ion of global
informat i on product s based upon GLAS informat ion t hat provi de an insi ght int o t he on-
going and future utili t y of spaceborne LI DAR dat a.
The nat i onal capaci t y t o util i ze LI DAR dat a can be hi gh when anal ysi s from dat a capt ur e
t hrough t o informat i on generat i on i s desi red; conversel y, capaci t y needs can be lower if
a cont ract - based approach i s pursued. Nat i onal end users can cont ract t he desi red
informat i on out comes from t he LI DAR acqui si tion and processi ng. As such, i t i s
i mport ant t o have cl ear informat i on needs t hat can be used t o develop st at ement s of
work and del i verabl es for cont ract ors. I nformat i on needs t o meet REDD+ cri t eri a can be
devel oped for LI DAR dat a anal ogous t o t hose under devel opment for fi el d dat a.

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2.9 .2.5 St atus, expect ed near- t erm developments and long- t erm sust ainabilit y
Unl ess l aser 2 on board I CESat I / GLAS can be r est art ed, t here wil l be no operat i onal
space l aser avail abl e over t he next f ew year s. However, t he Uni t ed St at es i s working
t oward t he devel opment of t hree new spaceborne LI DAR mi ssions; I CESat I I , DESDynI
( Deformat ion, Ecosyst em St ruct ure, and Dynami cs of I ce) , and LI ST ( Laser I magi ng for
Surface Topography) . Al t hough speci fi c mi ssion det ai l s ar e dynami c, i t i s expect ed t hat
I CESat I I wil l be l aunched i n 2015 wi th dat a acqui si t ion paramet er s si mil ar t o I CESat I
( singl e beam waveform profil er, 30-50 m foot print , and ~ 140 m al ong- t rack post
spaci ng) . Assumi ng a l aunch dat e of 2015, there will l i kel y be a 6- 7 year dat a gap
bet ween t he I CESat I and I CESat I I mi ssions. The DESDynI and LI ST mi ssions wi ll
commence at a l at er dat e, i .e., ca 2017 and 2020, respect i vel y. DESDynI wi ll be a dual
sensor pl at form ( mul ti beam LI DAR and L- band radar) t hat acqui res LI DAR dat a wi t h
foot print s of ~ 25 m wi th along- and cross- t r ack profile spaci ng of 25-30 m and 2-5 km,
respect i vel y. The LI ST pl at form i s expect ed t o coll ect gl obal wall -t o- wal l LI DAR dat a over
a 5 year mi ssi on. LI DAR dat a acquired by LI ST wi ll have a foot print si ze and al ong and
across- t rack post i ng of 5 m. Al t hough there will be a dat a gap, t he current I CESat I
pl at form i n conj uncti on wi t h t he proposed I CESat I I pl at form are l i kel y t o provi de LI DAR
dat a coll ect ed in a syst emat i c manner across t he globe.
2.9 .2.6 Applicabilit y of LI DAR as an appropriat e t echnology
Whil e LI DAR may be consi dered as an emergi ng t echnology i n t erms of l arge- area
moni tori ng especi all y wi th t he nascent REDD+ processes, LI DAR i s well est abli shed as a
dat a source f or meet i ng forest management and sci ence obj ect i ves. The capaci t y for
LI DAR t o charact eri ze bi omass and change i n bi omass over t i me posi tions t he t echnol ogy
well t o meet REDD+ informat i on needs. LI DAR dat a i n t erms of i nformat ion cont ent ar e
anal ogous t o fi el d based measures. As such, LI DAR may be consi dered as a source of
sampl ed informat ion, whil e i s al so uniquel y abl e t o produce det ai l ed informat ion over
l arge ar eas. The informat i on need and t he act ual moni t ori ng framework ut i li zed may
furt her gui de t he appl i cabilit y of LI DAR for nat i onal carbon accounting and reporting
purposes. The abili t y t o est i mat e uncert ai nt y measures f rom LI DAR dat a al so posi ti ons
t he t echnology well t o produce t ranspar ent and veri fi abl e measures i n support of
accounti ng and reporti ng act i vi ti es. Whil e cost s need t o be consi dered, t hese act ual cost s
t o a program need t o be vet t ed against t he i nformat i on t hat i s being devel oped, how thi s
informat i on meet s t he speci fi ed needs, and i mport ant l y, how t he reduct i on in uncert ai nt y
from LI DAR offset s i ni ti al cost s. Pil ot st udi es and some i nt ernat i onal coordination of on-
going and proposed act i vi ti es t o meet REDD+ informat i on needs are encouraged. Whil e
LI DAR dat a ar e current l y avail abl e in a li mi t ed manner from spaceborne pl at forms, an
increase in t hi s capaci t y i s envi sioned and encouraged. The possi bl e l i mi t at i ons in
spaceborne measures are well offset by t he widespread and operat ional acqui si tion of
LI DAR from ai rborne pl at forms. Ai rborne LI DAR dat a coll ect ed by commerci al provi ders
fost ers - gl obal avai l abili t y and enabl es nat i onal capaci ti es t o be ai ded by deli very of
product s r at her t han raw dat a.
2. 9. 3 Forest moni tori ng using Synt heti c Apert ure Radar ( SAR)
observations
2.9 .3.1 Synt het ic Aperture Radar t echnology
Synt het i c Apert ure Radar ( SAR) sensors have been used si nce t he 1960s t o produce
remot e sensi ng i mages of eart h- surface feat ures based on t he pri nci pal s of radar ( radi o
det ect i on and rangi ng) refl ect i vi t y. Over t he past t wo decades, t he sci ence and
t echnology underpi nni ng radar r emot e sensi ng has mat ured consi derabl y. Addi ti onall y,
hi gh-resoluti on global di gi t al el evat i on models ( e.g., f rom t he 2000 Shut tl e Radar
Topography Mi ssion, SRTM) , whi ch are r equi red for accurat e r adar cali brat i on and i mage
geol ocat i on, are now f reel y avail abl e. Toget her , t hese advancement s have enabl ed and
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encouraged t he devel opment and operat ional deployment of advanced spaceborne
inst rument s t hat now make syst emat i c, repet i t i ve, and consi st ent SAR observat i ons of
t ropi cal forest cover possi bl e at regional to global scal es.
Radar remot e sensors compl ement opt i cal remot e sensors i n t wo fundament al ways.
Fi rst , where as opt i cal sensors passi vel y record el ect romagnet i c energy ( e.g., sun li ght )
radi at ed or refl ect ed by ear t h- surface feat ures, radar i s an act i ve syst em, meaning i t
serves as t he source of i t s own el ect romagnet i c energy. As a r adar sensor orbi t s t he
Eart h, i t t ransmi t s short pul ses of energy t oward t he surface below, whi ch int eract wi t h
surface feat ures such as forest veget at ion. A porti on of t hi s energy i s refl ect ed back
t oward t he sensor where t he backscat t ered si gnal i s recorded. Second, whil e opti cal
sensors operat e pri maril y in the vi si bl e and infrared ( ca. 0.4- 15.0 µm) porti ons of t he
el ect romagnet i c spect rum, radar sensors oper at e i n t he mi crowave r egi on ( ca. 3- 70 cm) .
Where as short el ect romagnet i c waves in the vi si bl e and infrared range are r eadil y
scat t ered by at mospheri c part i cul at es ( e.g., haze, smoke, and cl ouds) , long- wavel engt h
mi crowaves gener al l y penet r at e t hrough t hem, maki ng radar remot e sensi ng an
invaluabl e t ool for i maging t ropi cal forest s whi ch are commonl y covered by cl ouds.
Moreover, mi crowaves penet r at e i nt o forest canopi es, wi t h t he amount of backscat t er ed
energy dependant i n part on t he t hree- di mensi onal st ruct ure and moi st ure cont ent of t he
const i t uent l eaves, branches and st ems, and underl yi ng soi ls, t hus resul ting i n usef ul
informat i on on forest st ruct ural at t ri but es i ncl uding st ruct ural forest cover t ype and
aboveground biomass. Thereby, t he degree t o whi ch mi crowave energy penet r at es i nt o
forest canopi es depends on the frequency/ wavel engt h of t he incomi ng el ect romagnet i c
waves. Gener all y speaki ng, incomi ng mi crowaves are scat t ered most st rongl y by
surface el ement s ( e.g., l eaves, br anches, and st ems) t hat are l arge rel at i ve t o t he
wavel engt h. Hence, l onger wavel engt hs (e.g. , P- / L- band) penet rat e deeper i nt o f orest
canopi es t han short er wavel engt hs ( e.g., C- / X- band) . I n addi ti on to wavel engt h, the
pol ari zat i on of t he t ransmi t t ed and recei ved mi crowave energy provi des addi tional
sensi ti vi t y wi t h whi ch t o charact eri ze forest st ruct ure.
An i ncreasi ng number of SAR sensors are now being bui l t wi t h pol ari met ri c and high-
resoluti on capabil i ti es following recent advancement s i n SAR dat a recording and
comput er processing. The fi rst ci vili an spaceborne SAR sensors ar e now bei ng operat ed
at spat i al resoluti ons finer t han 5 met er s ( e.g. , TerraSAR- X, Cosmo SkyMed, et c.) , whi ch
i s of great pot ent i al for exampl e where t he mappi ng of logging roads and associ at ed
forest degr adat i on pat t erns i s concerned. A l ist i ng of past , current , and future SAR
sensors i s incl uded in Tabl e 2.9.1. I n addi tion t o t he sensors li st ed i n Tabl e 2.9. 1, a
number of follow on mi ssions are pl anned t o ensure cont inui t y beyond 2010. I n
summar y, r adar remot e sensi ng i s well sui t ed t o pot ent i al l y support t ropi cal forest
moni tori ng needs.

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Table 2.9.1. Summary of current and pl anned spaceborne synt het i c apert ure radar
( SAR) sensors and t hei r charact eri sti cs.
Current
Sat elli tes/
sensors

Nat ion
( s)
Period of
Oper at ion

Band

Polari zat ion
Spat ial
Resolut ion
( m)
Orbital
Repeat
( days)
ERS- 1 Europe
1991-
2000
C Single (VV) 26 3- 176
JERS- 1 Japan
1992-
1998
L Single (HH) 18 44
ERS- 2 Europe 1995- C Single (VV) 26 35
RADARSAT 1 Canada 1995- C Single (HH) 8- 100 3- 24
Envisat / ASAR Europe 2002- C Single, Dual 30- 1000 35
ALOS/ PALSAR Japan 2006- L
Single, Dual,
Quad
10- 100 46
RADARSAT 2 Canada 2007- C
Single, Dual,
Quad
3- 100 24
TerraSAR-X Germany 2007- X
Single, Dual,
Quad
1- 16 11
COSMO- SkyMed I t aly 2007- X
Single, Dual
I nt erf er omet ric
1- 100 16




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Figure 2 .9.1. (A) Global observat ion st rat egy f or (B) various ALOS/ PALSAR sensor
modes. The syst emat i c observat i on st rat egy i s l ikel y t o be repeat ed t hroughout mi ssi on
li fe, proj ect ed t o l ast beyond 2016 ( source: JAXA/ EORC) .




Whil e sat elli t es carryi ng SAR sensors have been in orbit si nce t he earl y 1990s ( Tabl e
2. 9.1) , t he pan- t ropi cal observat ion of forest st ruct ure by r adar remot e sensi ng recei ved
a furt her support as of Januar y 24, 2006, when t he Japanese Aerospace Expl orati on
Agency ( JAXA) l aunched t hei r newest spaceborne Eart h observi ng pl at form, t he
Advanced Land Observi ng Sat ell i t e ( ALOS) feat uring PALSAR (Phased Array L-band
Synt het i c Apert ure Radar) , t he fi rst pol ari met ri c L- band i magi ng radar sensor ever
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depl oyed on a sat el li t e pl at form for ci vili an Eart h observat i on. The ALOS mi ssi on i s
part i cul arl y uni que in t hat a dedi cat ed gl obal dat a obser vat i on st rat egy was desi gned
wi th t he goal of syst emat i call y i magi ng all of Eart h’s l and masses i n a wal l- t o- wall
manner at l east once per year at 10 m, 20 m, and 100 m resolut ion (Figure 2.9. 1) . I n
t he i nt erest of produci ng globall y- consi st ent radar i mage dat aset s of t he t ype fi rst
gener at ed by t he Japanese Eart h Resources Sat el li t e ( JERS- 1) during t he Gl obal Rai n
Forest Mappi ng (GRFM) proj ect of t he mi d-1990s, an i nt ernat i onal ALOS “ Kyot o and
Carbon Sci ence Team” was formed t o devel op an acqui si t ion st rat egy t o support global
forest moni t oring needs. Thi s st r at egy i s current l y fi xed, and will very li kel y cont i nue
t hrough the li fet i me of t he mi ssi on, whi ch i s expect ed t o l ast at l east 10 years, spanni ng
much i f not all of the post - Kyot o commi t ment period of 2013 t o 2017. A number of
space agenci es including JAXA, t he European Space Agency (ESA) , and t he U.S. Nat i onal
Aeronauti cs and Space Admi ni st rat i on ( NASA) now have pl ans t o depl oy addi ti onal
i magi ng radar sensors t hat are schedul ed t o become operat ional over t he next 5- 7 years
( Tabl e 2.9.1) , ensuring t he l ong- t erm conti nui ty of repeat observat ions at L- band and
ot her radar frequenci es. Overal l , t hese sensor char act eri st i cs make ALOS/ PALSAR dat a
ideall y sui t ed t o compl ement t he exi st ing fl eet of Eart h remot e sensi ng pl at forms by
provi ding high-resol ution, wall- t o-wall , i mage cover age t hat i s acquired over short t i me
frames and uni mpeded by cl oud cover.
2.9 .3.2 Case St udy: Xingu River Headwater s, Mat o Grosso, Brazil
Gi ven t he excell ent posi tional accuracy ( ~ 9.3 m) of ALOS/ PALSAR dat a and t he recent
avail abil it y of advanced radar i mage processi ng met hods, r egional - t o continent al -scal e
i mage mosai cs can be r eadil y produced for any locat i on t hat has been syst emat i call y
i maged by t he ALOS/ PALSAR sensor. Fi gure 2.7. 2 i ncludes shows a l arge- area ( ca.
400,000 km2) i mage mosai c of ALOS/ PALSAR dat a, whi ch covers t he headwat ers of t he
Xi ngu Ri ver, in Mat o Grosso, Brazi l . Dat a were acqui red bet ween June 8t h and Jul y 27t h,
2007, as part of a 4- mont h gl obal acqui si tion (see Fi gure 2.9.1) . Thi s part i cul ar mosai c
was gener at ed i n l ess t han one week usi ng t wo di st i nct (i .e. , dual - pol ari met ri c) PALSAR
informat i on channel s: 1) i mage dat a deri ved from mi crowave energy t hat was bot h
t ransmi t t ed and recei ved by t he PALSAR ant enna i n t he hori zont al direct i on (i .e. parall el
t o Eart h’s surface) , and b) i mage dat a deri ved from mi crowave energy t ransmi t t ed i n the
hori zont al di rect i on, but recei ved i n t he vert i cal direct i on ( i .e., perpendi cul ar t o t he
Eart h’s surface) . The former case i s referred t o as HH- pol ari zat i on whil e the l at t er case i s
referred t o as HV- pol ari zat ion. The concept of pol ari zat i on i s an i mport ant aspect of
radar r emot e sensing because eart h- surface f eat ur es such as forest canopi es respond
di fferentl y t o di fferent pol ari zat ions.
Because radar sensors are “ act i ve” remot e sensi ng syst ems (i .e., t hey t r ansmi t and
recei ve t hei r own mi crowave energy, and t hus compl ement “passi ve” opt i cal sensors
whi ch measure r efl ect ed sun light ) , radar i mages ar e al ways vi sual represent at i ons (i .e.,
di spl ayed i n t he vi si bl e spect rum) of mi crowave energy r ecei ved at and recorded by t he
sensor. Singl e radar informat i on channel s are t ypi call y di spl ayed as grayscal e i mages.
When i nt erpret ing a radar i mage i t i s a gener al rul e of t humb t hat increasi ng bright ness
corresponds t o a great er amount of energy recorded by t he sensor. Appl yi ng t hi s rul e of
t humb t o t he int erpret at i on of veget at ed r egions i n an ALOS/ PALSAR i mage, areas wi t h a
great er amount of veget at i on bi omass of a gi ven st ruct ural t ype wi ll appear bri ght er due
t o t he great er amount of energy scat t ered back t o and recorded by t he sensor. I f
mul ti pl e radar i nformat i on channel s ( i .e., mul t ipl e pol ari zat i ons) ar e avail abl e, col or
i mages can be generat ed by assi gni ng speci fi c channel s or combi nat ions of channel s t o
each of t he vi si bl e red, green, and blue ( RGB) channel s commonl y used for di spl ay in
comput er moni tors. To creat e t he color ( RGB) i mage di spl ayed i n Fi gure 2.9.2, t he HH
channel was assi gned t he color red, t he HV channel was assi gned t he color green, and
t he diff erence bet ween t he t wo ( HH minus HV) was assi gned t he col or bl ue. Hence,
green and yell ow i mage t ones correspond t o inst ances wher e bot h HH and HV
informat i on channel s have hi gh energy ret urns ( e.g. , over forest ed and urban areas) .
Bl ue and magent a t ones are gener all y f ound in non- forest ed ( e.g., agri cul t ural ) areas
where HH- pol ari zed energy t ends t o exhi bi t higher ret urns from t he surface t han does
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HV- pol ari zed energy. The i nformat ion cont ained in t he t hree ALOS/ PALSAR i mage
channel s has recent l y been used t o demonst r at e t he ut il it y of t hese dat a for accurat e
l arge- ar ea, forest / non-forest mappi ng. Ground validat i on i n t hi s area demonst r at ed t hat
an overall cl assi fi cat ion accur acy of great er t han 90% was achi eved from t he ALOS radar
i magery.
Figure 2.9 .2. Xi ngu Ri ver headwat ers, Mat o Grasso, Brazil . The radar i mage mosai c i s
a composi t e of 116 indi vidual scenes ( 400, 000 km
2
) acquired by t he PALSAR sensor
carri ed on board ALOS. A prel i minary l and cover cl assi fi cat ion has been generat ed wi t h
an emphasi s on produci ng an accurat e forest / nonforest map. I n t he forest ed areas, t he
sensi ti vi t y of the PALSAR dat a t o di fferences i n aboveground biomass i s al so being
invest i gat ed in coll aborat i on wi th t he Amazon I nsti t ut e of Envi ronment al Resear ch
( I PAM) . Dat a by JAXA/ METI and Ameri can ALOS Dat a Node. I mage processi ng and
anal ysi s by The Woods Hol e Research Cent er, 2007.



2. 9. 4 I nt egrat ion of sat elli t e and i n sit u dat a for biomass mapping
The advant age of biomass est i mat i on approaches t hat i ncorporat e some form of
remot el y sensed dat a i s t hrough provi si on of a synopt i c vi ew of t he area of i nt erest ,
t hereby capt uri ng t he spat i al vari abil i t y in t he at t ri but es of i nt erest ( e.g., hei ght , crown
closure) . The spat i al coverage of l arge area biomass est i mat es t hat ar e const r ai ned by
t he li mit ed spat i al ext ent of f orest i nvent ori es may be expanded t hrough t he use of
remot el y sensed dat a. Si mil arl y, remot el y sensed dat a can be used t o fi ll spat i al ,
at t ri buti onal , and t emporal gaps i n forest invent ory dat a, t her eby augment i ng and
enhancing est i mat es of forest bi omass and car bon st ocks deri ved f rom forest i nvent ory
dat a. Such a hybri d approach i s part i cul arl y rel evant for non-merchant abl e f orest s wher e
basi c invent ory dat a requi red for biomass est i mat i on are l acki ng. Mini mum mapping
uni t s are a funct i on of t he i magery upon whi ch bi omass est i mat es are made. Furt her,
cost s will be a funct i on of t he i mager y desired, t he areal coverage requi red, t he
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sophi sti cat i on of t he processi ng, and needs for new plot dat a. For confidence in t he
out comes of biomass est i mat i on and mappi ng from remot el y sensed dat a some form of
ground cali brat ion / val i dat ion dat a i s requi red (Goet z et al ., 2009) .
Bi omass est i mat es may r ange from l ocal t o global scal es, and for some r egi ons,
part i cul arl y t ropi cal forest regi ons, t here are l arge vari at i ons in t he est i mat es report ed i n
t he li t erat ure. Gl obal and nati onal est i mat es of forest above- ground biomass are oft en
non- spat i al est i mat es, compil ed t hrough t he t abul ar gener ali zat i on of nat ional l evel
forest invent ory dat a. Due t o t he i mport ance for report i ng and model ing, a wi de- range of
met hods and dat a sources for generat i ng spat i all y expli ci t l arge- area biomass est i mat es
have been t he subj ect of ext ensi ve resear ch.
A vari et y of approaches and dat a sources have been used t o est i mat e forest above
ground bi omass ( AGB) . Bi omass est i mat i on i s t ypi call y generat ed from: (i ) fi el d
measurement ; ( ii ) remot el y sensed dat a; or (iii ) ancill ary dat a used i n GI S- based
modeli ng. Est i mat ion from fi el d measurement s may ent ail dest ruct i ve sampl i ng or direct
measurement and t he appli cat i on of all omet ri c equat ions. Al lomet ri c equat i ons est i mat e
bi omass by regr essi ng a measured sampl e of bi omass agai nst t ree vari abl es t hat ar e
easy t o measure i n t he fi el d ( e.g., di amet er at breast hei ght , hei ght ) . Al though equat i ons
may be speci es- or si t e- speci fi c, t hey ar e oft en generali zed t o repr esent mi xed f orest
condi ti ons or l arge spat i al areas. Biomass i s commonl y est i mat ed by appl yi ng
conversi on f act ors ( bi omass expansi on fact ors) t o t ree vol ume ( ei t her deri ved f rom fi el d
pl ot measures or forest i nvent ory dat a) or appl yi ng allomet ri c regressi on equat ions t o
forest st and t abl es ( t abl es of number of t rees per di amet er cl ass; cf. sect i on 2.2) .
Rel at ionships bet ween bi omass and ot her i nvent ory at t ri but es ( e.g. , basal area) have
al so been report ed. The use of exi st i ng forest i nvent ory dat a t o map l arge area t ree AGB
has been expl ored; conversi on t abl es were devel oped t o est i mat e biomass from
at t ri but es cont ai ned i n pol ygon- based forest invent ory dat a, i ncluding speci es
composi tion, crown densi t y, and domi nant t ree hei ght .
Remot el y sensed dat a have become an i mportant dat a source for bi omass est i mat ion.
Generall y, bi omass i s ei t her est i mat ed vi a a di rect rel at i onshi p bet ween spect ral
response and bi omass usi ng mul tipl e regression anal ysi s, k- near est nei ghbor, neural
net works, st at i st i cal ensembl e met hods ( e.g. deci sion t rees), or t hrough indirect
rel at i onships, whereby at t ri but es est i mat ed from t he r emot el y sensed dat a, such as l eaf
area i ndex ( LAI ) , st ruct ure ( crown cl osure and hei ght ) or shadow fract ion are used i n
equat ions t o est i mat e bi omass. When usi ng remot el y sensed dat a for biomass
est i mat i on, t he choi ce of met hod oft en depends on t he required l evel of preci sion and
t he avail abil i t y of plot dat a. Some met hods, such as k- nearest nei ghbor requi re
represent at i ve i mage- speci fi c plot dat a, whereas ot her met hods are more appropri at e
when scene- speci fi c plot dat a are li mi t ed.
A vari et y of remot el y sensed dat a sources cont inue t o be empl oyed for biomass mappi ng
incl uding coarse spat i al resol ution dat a such as SPOT-VEGETATI ON, AVHRR, and MODI S.
To facil i t at e t he li nkage of det ail ed ground measurement s t o coarse spat i al resol ution
remot el y sensed dat a ( e.g. , MODI S, AVHRR, I RS-Wi FS) , several st udi es have int egrat ed
mul ti -scal e i magery i nto t hei r biomass est i mat i on met hodol ogy and i ncorporat ed
moderat e spat i al resol uti on i magery ( e. g., Landsat , ASTER) as an i nt ermedi ary dat a
source bet ween t he fi el d dat a and coarser i magery. Resear ch has demonst r at ed t hat i t i s
more effect i ve t o gener at e r el at i onships bet ween fi el d measures and moder at e spat i al
resoluti on remot el y sensed dat a ( e.g., Landsat ) , and t hen ext rapol at e t hese r el at i onships
over l arger areas usi ng compar abl e spect r al properti es from coarser spat i al resol ution
i magery ( e.g. , MODI S). Foll owi ng t hi s approach all evi at es t he di f fi cul t y in li nking fi el d
measures di rect l y t o coarser spat i al resol uti on dat a, al t hough a number of ot her
t echni ques have been devi sed ( see background readings).
Landsat TM and ETM+ dat a ar e t he most wi del y used sources of remot el y sensed
i magery for forest bi omass est i mat i on. Numerous st udi es have gener at ed st and
at t ri but es from LI DAR dat a, and t hen used t hese at t ri but es as i nput for all omet ri c
bi omass equat i ons. Ot her st udi es have expl ored t he i nt egrat i on of LI DAR and RADAR
dat a for biomass est i mat i on.
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GI S- based model ing using ancill ary dat a excl usi vel y, such as cli mat e normal s,
preci pi t at i on dat a, t opography, and veget at i on zones i s anot her approach t o biomass
est i mat i on. Some st udi es have al so used geost at i st i cal approaches ( i .e., kri gi ng) t o
gener at e spat i all y expli ci t maps of AGB from fi el d plot s, or t o i mprove upon exi sti ng
bi omass est i mat i on. More commonl y, GI S i s used as t he mechani sm for int egrat i ng
mul ti pl e dat a sources for biomass est i mat i on ( e.g., forest i nvent ory and remot el y sensed
dat a). For exampl e, MODI S, JERS-1, Qui ckSCAT, SRTM, cli mat e and veget at ion dat a
have been combi ned t o model forest AGB in the Amazon Basi n.
2. 9. 5 Targeted ai rbor ne surveys t o support carbon st ock
est imations – a case study
Ground based met hods for est i mat i ng biomass carbon of t he t ree component of forest s
are t ypi call y based on measurement s of i ndi vidual t r ees i n many plot s combined wi th
allomet ri c equat i ons t hat rel at e bi omass as a funct i on of a singl e di mensi on, e. g.,
di amet er at breast hei ght ( dbh) , or a combinat i on of di mensions, such as dbh and
hei ght . A pot ent i al way of reduci ng cost s of measuri ng and moni tori ng t he carbon st ocks
of forest s i s t o coll ect t he key dat a r emot el y, part i cul arl y over l arge and oft en di ffi cul t
t errai n where t he abili t y t o i mpl ement an on-t he- ground st at i st i cal sampling desi gn can
be diffi cult .
There are l i mi t at i ons of remot el y sensed product s t o measure si mul t aneousl y t he t wo
key par amet er s for est i mat i ng forest bi omass from above ( i .e., t ree hei ght and t ree
crown area) . However, posi ti ve experi ences exi st wi t h syst ems usi ng multi spect r al t hree-
di mensi onal aeri al di git al i magery t hat usuall y fi t s on board a si ngl e- engine pl ane. Such
syst ems coll ect hi gh- resol uti on overl apping st ereo i mages from a hi gh- defini tion vi deo
camer a ( ≤ 10 cm pixel size). Spacing camera exposures for 70–80 % overl ap provi des
t he st er eo cover age of t he ground whi le t he profiling l aser, i nerti al measurement uni t ,
and GPS provi de georefer enci ng informat i on t o compi l e t he i mager y bundl e- adj ust ed
bl ocks i n a common t hree- di mensional space of geographi c coordinat es. The syst em al so
incl udes a profili ng l aser t o record ground and canopy el evat i ons. The i mager y all ows
di st ingui shing i ndi vi dual t rees, i dent ifyi ng t hei r pl ant t ype and measuring t hei r hei ght
and crown area. The measurement s can be used t o deri ve est i mat es of aboveground
t ree bi omass carbon for a gi ven cl ass of i ndivi dual s usi ng al lomet ri c equat i ons ( e.g.
bet ween crown ar ea and biomass) . Bi omass can be measured i n t he same way as i n
ground plot s, t o achi eve pot ent i al l y t he same accuracy and preci sion, but wi t h pot enti all y
l ess i nvest ment in resources. I n addi ti on, t he dat a can be ar chi ved so t hat , i f needed,
t he dat a coul d be re- eval uat ed or used for some future purpose.
As an exampl e, t he 3 D di gi t al i magery syst em has been t est ed i n highl y het erogeneous
pi ne savanna ( Brown et al , 2005) and a closed broadl eaf forest (Pear son et al . , 2005) ,
bot h i n Beli ze. I n t he pi ne savanna, t he ext reme het erogenei t y cr eat es t he requi rement
for hi gh int ensi t y sampli ng and consequent l y ver y hi gh on t he ground measurement
cost s. For t he i mager y syst em, t he hi ghest cost s ar e f i xed and t he cost of anal yzi ng high
numbers of plot s i s low in compari son t o measurement s on t he ground (Brown et al .,
2005). The st udy of t he cl osed t ropi cal forest shows t hat i t s compl ex canopy i s well
sui t ed t o t he 3D i magery syst em. The compl ex mul ti -l ayered canopy faci lit at es t he
identi fi cat ion and measurement of separat e t ree crowns. The st udi ed area i s par t i cul arl y
sui t ed due t o i t s fl at t opography. I n t he cl osed forest i t was of t en compl ex t o measur e
ground hei ght adj acent t o each t ree, i f t opography were vari ed i t woul d be necessary t o
use an al t ernat e equat i on t hat does not employ t ree hei ght and woul d t herefore be l ess
preci se.
2- 136
Table 2.9.3. Resul t s from case st udi es using t he 3D di gi t al i magery syst em for
est i mat i ng carbon st ocks of t wo forest t ypes i n Beli ze.
Forest t ype
Number of
imagery
plot s
Est imat ed
carbon
st ock
t C/ ha
95%
Confidence
int erval
% of t he
mean
Reference
Closed
t ropi cal
forest
39 117 7.4
Pearson et al .
( 2005)
Pine
Savanna
77 13.1 16.8 Brown et al . (2005)

I magery dat a ar e coll ect ed over t he forest of i nt er est by fl yi ng parall el t ransect s. Once
t he i magery are processed, indi vi dual 3D i mage pai rs are syst emat i call y sel ect ed and
nest ed i mage plot s ( var yi ng radii t o account f or t he di st ri bution of small t o l arge crowned
t rees) are pl aced on t he i magery and t rees crown and hei ght measurement s t aken
( syst em uses ERDAS and St ereo Anal yst ) . To convert t he measurement s from t he
i magery t o est i mat es of bi omass carbon, a seri es of all omet ri c equat i ons bet ween t r ee or
shrub biomass carbon were devel oped. The al lomet ri c equat i ons resul ti ng from t hi s
anal ysi s wer e appli ed t o crown area and veget at ion hei ght dat a obt ai ned from t he
anal ysi s of t he i magery t o est i mat e biomass carbon per plot and t hen ext r apol at ed t o
per- hect are val ues (Tabl e 2.9.3) .
I n t erms of cost , an ai rpl ane, wi th avi at ion gas and pil ot i s needed t o coll ect t he
i magery; experi ence has shown t hi s t o cost approxi mat el y US$ 300 per hour of engine
t i me. Usi ng a convent ional fi el d approach, t he equi val ent cost woul d be a vehi cl e rent al
for 20- 50 day, t he cost of whi ch depends on local count ry condi tions. I n t he Beli ze pine
savanna st udy, i t was found that t he break- even poi nt in person- hours was at 25 plot s,
where t he convent i onal fi el d approach was more t i me- effi ci ent . However, as more t han
200 plot s would be needed i n t he pine savanna t o achi eve preci sion l evel s of l ess t han
10% of t he mean, t he t arget ed ai rborne approach cl earl y has an advant age, even
consi deri ng t he di fferent skill set needed by each approach. For t he cl osed forest , j ust 39
pl ot s were needed t o est i mat e bi omass carbon wi th 95 % confidence int erval s equal t o
7. 4 % of t he mean compared t o t he 101 ground plot s t hat produced a comparabl e
est i mat e wi t h confidence int erval s equal t o 8.5 % of t he mean.
2. 9. 6 Modeling and forecast ing for est - cover change
Most model s of forest - cover change at t he l andscape t o t he nat i onal scal es addr ess one
of t he following quest i ons ( somet i mes t hey deal wi th t he t wo at once): (i ) Whi ch
locat i ons are most li kel y t o be affect ed by forest - cover change i n t he near fut ure? (i i ) At
what rat e ar e forest - cover changes li kel y t o proceed i n a gi ven region?
Predi ct i ng t he locat i on of fut ure forest - cover change i s a r at her easy t ask, provi ded t hat
current and f ut ure processes of forest - cover change are si mil ar t o t hose t hat oper at ed i n
t he recent past . St at i st i cal rel ati onshi ps are cal ibrat ed bet ween l andscape det ermi nant s
of l and- use changes (e.g. , di st ance t o roads, soil t ype, market accessi bili t y, t errai n) and
recent l y observed spat i al pat t erns of forest - cover change. The anal ysi s of spat i al l y-
expli ci t deforest at i on maps, i .e. generat ed t o est i mat e act i vi t y dat a for I PCC reporti ng,
can provi de a sui t abl e dat abase for such analysi s. Bot h t he shape and pat t ern of t he
deforest at i on observed ( l ocat i on, si ze, f ragment at i on), as well as, t hei r rel at i onshi p wi th
spat i al fact ors influenci ng forest change can be quant i fi ed and empi ri cal rel at i onshi p
est abl i shed. Such underst anding can dri ve spat i all y- expl i ci t st at i st i cal model s are t hen
2- 137
used t o produce a “ sui t abili t y map” for a gi ven t ype of forest - cover change. Such model s
are born from t he combinat i on of geographi c i nformat i on syst ems ( GI S) and mul t i vari at e
st at i st i cal model s. Their goal i s t he proj ect ion and di spl ay, i n a cart ographi c form, of
fut ure l and use pat t erns whi ch woul d resul t from t he cont i nuat ion of current l and uses.
Not e t hat r egression model s cannot be used for wide ranging ext r apol ati ons i n space and
t i me.
Predi ct i ng fut ure rat es of forest - cover changes i s a much more di ffi cul t t ask. Act uall y,
t he quant i t y of deforest at i on, forest degr adat ion, or forest at i on in a gi ven l ocat ion
depends on underl ying dri vi ng causes. These i ndi rect and oft en remot e causes of forest -
cover change are gener all y rel at ed t o nat ional pol i ci es, global market s, human
mi grat ions from ot her regions, changes i n propert y- ri ght regi mes, i nt ernat ional t rade,
governance, et c. The r el at i ve i mport ance of t hese causes vari es wi del y i n space and
t i me. Opport uni ti es and const rai nt s f or new l and uses, t o whi ch local l and managers may
respond by changi ng forest cover, are cr eat ed by market s and pol i ci es t hat ar e
increasi ngl y i nfl uenced by gl obal fact ors ( Lambin et al ., 2001) . Ext reme biophysi cal
event s occasi onall y t rigger furt her changes. The dependency of causes of l and- use
changes on hi st ori cal , geographi c and ot her fact ors makes i t a part i cul arl y compl ex i ssue
t o model . Transi tion probabil it y model s, such as Mar kov chai ns, proj ect t he amount of
l and covered by vari ous l and use t ypes based on a sampl e of t ransi tions occurring during
a pr evious t i me int erval . Such si mpl e model s rel y on t he assumpt i on of t he st at i onari t y
of t he t ransi ti on mat ri x - i .e. t emporal homogenei t y. The st ochast i c nat ure of Markov
chai n masks t he causat i ve vari abl es.
Many economi c model s of l and-use change appl y opti mi sat i on t echni ques based ei t her
on whol e- farm anal yses at t he mi croeconomi c l evel ( using l inear programmi ng) or
gener al equilibri um model s at t he macroeconomi c scal e ( Kai mowi t z and Angel sen,
1998). Any parcel of l and, gi ven it s at t ri but es and i t s locat i on, i s model ed as being used
in t he way t hat yi el ds t he hi ghest rent . Such model s all ow invest i gat ion of t he infl uence
of vari ous poli cy measures on l and allocat ion choi ces. The appli cabili t y of mi cro-
economi c model s for proj ect i ons i s however li mi t ed due t o unpredi ct abl e fl uct uat ions of
pri ces and demand fact ors, and t o t he rol e of non- economi c fact ors dri vi ng forest - cover
changes ( e.g., corruption pract i ces and low ti mber pri ces t hat underli e i ll egal logging) .
Dynami c si mul at ion model s condense and aggregat e compl ex ecosyst ems i nto a small
number of different i al equat i ons or rul es i n a st yl i sed manner. Si mul ation model s ar e
t heref ore based on an a priori underst anding of t he forces dri vi ng forest - cover change.
The st r engt h of a si mul at i on model depends on whet her t he maj or feat ures affect i ng
l and-use changes ar e i nt egrat ed, whet her t he funct i onal rel at i onships bet ween f act ors
affect i ng change processes are appropri at el y represent ed, and on t he capaci t y of t he
model t o predi ct t he most i mport ant ecological and economi c i mpact s of l and-use
changes. Si mul at ion model s allow rapi d explorat i on of probabl e ef fect s of t he
conti nuat i on of current l and use pr act i ces or of changes i n cul tural or ecol ogi cal
par amet er s. These model s allow t est i ng scenarios on fut ure l and- use changes. When
dynami c ecosyst em si mul at ion model s are spat i all y- expli ci t (i .e., i ncl ude t he spat i al
het erogenei t y of l andscapes) , t hey can predi ct t emporal changes i n spat i al pat t erns of
forest use.
Agent - based model s si mul at e deci sions by and compet i ti on bet ween mul ti pl e act ors and
l and managers. I n t hese behavi oral model s of l and use, deci sions by agent s are made
spat i all y-expli ci t thanks t o cel lul ar aut omat a t echni ques. A few spat i all y- expli ci t agent -
based model s of forest - cover change have been devel oped t o dat e. These gri d- cell
model s combine ecologi cal i nformat i on wi t h socio- economi c fact ors r el at ed t o l and- use
deci sions by f armers. Dynami c l andscape si mulat i on model s ar e not predi ct i ve syst ems
but rat her "game- pl aying t ool s" desi gned t o underst and t he possi bl e i mpact s of changes
in l and use. Dynami c l andscape si mul at i on model s are speci fi c t o narrow geographi c
si t uat ions and cannot be easil y generali zed over l arge regi ons.
Al l model desi gns i nvol ve a gr eat deal of si mplifi cat i on. Whi l e, by defi ni ti on, any model
fall s short of incorporat ing all aspect s of reali t y, i t provi des valuabl e informat i on on t he
syst em’s behavi or under a range of condi tions ( Vel dkamp and Lambi n, 2001) . Current
2- 138
model s of forest - cover change ar e r arel y based on processes at mul ti pl e spat i al and
t emporal scal es. Moreover, many l and use pat t erns have developed i n t he cont ext of
long t erm i nst abi li t y ( e.g., fl uct uat ions in cli mat e, pri ces, st at e poli ci es) . Forest - cover
change model s should t heref ore be buil t on t he assumpt ion of t emporal het erogenei t y
rat her t han on t he common assumpt i on of progressi ve, l inear t rends. Rapi dl y and
unpredi ct abl y changi ng vari abl es ( e.g., t echnologi cal i nnovat ions, confli ct s, new pol i ci es)
are as i mport ant i n shapi ng l and use dynami cs as t he sl owl y and cumul at i vel y changi ng
vari abl es ( e.g. , popul ation growt h, increase i n road net work) .
2. 9. 7 Cloud- comput i ng and web- based approaches to suppor t
nat ional f orest moni t ori ng
One of t he t echni cal chall enges whi ch count ri es may have i s t o expl ore t he use of remot e
sensi ng, and t o acqui re, manage and process gi gabyt es or even t er abyt es of remot e
sensi ng dat a. Technologi es are emergi ng whi ch begi n t o offer pot enti al soluti ons t o
t ackl e some of t hese chall enges. The advent of l arge- scal e, secure, host ed ( al so known
as “ cl oud- based” ) dat abases and dat a processing pl at forms can of fer shared access t o
l arge cat al ogs of dat a and comput at i onal resources f or processing. The current t r ends i n
t echnology adoption, int ernet access and “ Di git al incl usion” polici es i n t he devel oping
worl d suggest t hat cloud- based remot e sensi ng processi ng can offer a compl ement ar y
sol ution for t he increasi ngl y useful rol e of remot e sensi ng and t he i ncreasi ng i ssues of
t ransparency.
As an exampl e, one such pl at f orm i n evoluti on is “ Googl e Eart h Engine” , whi ch has been
devel oped as a new t echnology pl at form t hat enabl es aut omat ed remot e sensi ng and
ground- sampl ed dat a processi ng and forest mappi ng ( Fi gure 2.9.3) . The pl at form al lows
remot e sensi ng sci enti st s and devel oping worl d nat i ons t o direct l y buil d and advance t he
al gori t hms i n order t o advance t he broader operat i onal deployment of exi st i ng sci entifi c
met hods, and st r engt hen t he abil i t y for publ ic inst i t utions and ci vil soci et y t o bet t er map
and underst and t he st at e of t hei r forest s and changes. The i niti al rel ease of Eart h Engine
incl udes essent i all y the compl et e Landsat ar chi ve of L5 and L7 dat a
67
, col l ect ed over
more t han t went y- fi ve years ( 1984- present ) , for many of t he t ropi cal count ri es. The
pl at form i ncl udes open access t o comput at ional resources and t ool s for creat i ng spat i al
and t emporal mosai cs over t hese dat aset s, wit h or wi t hout at mospheri c correct i on as
desi red and t o run aut omat ed mapping and moni toring al gori thms using t hese dat a. The
pl at form incl udes a new appli cat ion programming framework, or “ API ”, t hat allows
sci ent i st s access t o t hese comput at ional and dat a resources, t o scal e t hei r current
al gori t hms or devel op new ones. A fi nal i mport ant el ement i s t he port al for int egrat i on of
ground- sampl ed dat a int o thi s pl at f orm; i ncluding dat a f rom smart phones used in t ri al s
in communi t y- based f orest moni t ori ng (see chapt er 3. 4.2 on how communi ti es can make
t hei r own forest invent ori es) .


67
This includes all Landsat L5/ L7 dat a held at t he USGS EROS Dat a Cent er as of November, 2010,
at < = 50% cloud-cover, a t hreshold recommended by USGS.
2- 139
Figure 2. 9.3. Resul t s of running I mazon' s forest change anal ysi s in Googl e Eart h Engine
on sat elli t e i mager y t aken bet ween March and June, 2010. The green color represent s
forest ed areas, whil e t he red and yel l ow areas indi cat e recent deforest at ion. The
anal ysi s i ndi cat es t hat no deforest at i on t ook place i nsi de t he Surui t erri t ory during t hi s
period, whereas al ong the peri met er and out side of t hei r t erri t ory t here i s evi dence of
recent deforest at i on.



Such t echnologi es have advant ages for count ri es wi t h li mi t ed exi st i ng remot e sensing
capaci t i es and t hat ar e not abl e t o process l arge amount s of remot e sensi ng dat a and
are int erest ed t o make use of some of t he archi ved dat a. These new t echnologi es al so
present t hei r own chal l enges such as feasi bili ty i n areas of lit tl e- t o- no I nt ernet access
and concerns about dat a pri vacy, ownershi p and securi t y of t he dat a. The aut omat ed
mapping al gori thms require l ocall y-rel evant t r aini ng dat a and forest defi ni t ions i n order
t o produce maps whi ch respect di fferent def ini t ions of forest s, deforest at i on and
degr adat i on. The use and val ue for nat ional l evel reporting st i ll need t o be full y
expl ored.
2. 9. 8 Summary and recommendat i ons
The t echni ques and approaches outlined in previ ous sect i ons are among t he most
i mport ant ones wi t h t he pot ent i al t o i mprove nat i onal moni t oring and assessing carbon
emi ssi ons f rom deforest at i on and f orest degradat i on for REDD+ i mpl ement at i on. Thei r
useful ness shoul d be j udged by a number fact ors incl uding:
 Dat a char act eri st i cs & spat i al / t emporal resolut ion of current observat i ons/ sensors
 Operat ional cali brat i on and int erpret at ion/ anal ysi s met hods
2- 140
 Area of cont ri bution t o exi sti ng I PCC l and sect or report ing and sourcebook
approach
 Est i mat ed moni t oring cost (i .e. per km
2
)
 Experi ences for moni toring purposes, i .e. exampl es for l arge scal e or nat i onal
demonst r at i on proj ect s
 Dat a avail abi lit y, cover age and access procedur es
 Known li mi t at ions and chall enges, and approaches t o deal wi t h t hem
 Nat ional capaci ti es requi red for operat i onal i mplement at i on
 St at us, expect ed near- t erm devel opment s and l ong- t erm sust ai nabil it y
There i s a cl ear rol e for t he i nt ernat ional communi t y t o assi st count ri es and act or s
invol ved in REDD+ monit ori ng in the underst andi ng, usefulness and progress of evol vi ng
t echnologi es. Thi s i nvol ves a proper communi cat ion on t he act i vi ti es needed and act i ons
t aken t o eval uat e and protot ype REDD+ moni t ori ng using dat a and t echni ques becomi ng
increasi ngl y avail abl e. Near- t erm progress i s part i cul arl y expect ed i n t he avail abi li t y and
access t o sui t abl e remot e sensi ng dat aset s. Currentl y Landsat dat a are t he most
common sat ell i t e dat aset for forest moni t ori ng on t he nat ional l evel . Sever al fact ors ar e
responsi bl e for t hi s incl uding ri gorous geomet ri c and radi omet ri c st andards, t he i mage
char act eri st i cs most known and useful for l arge ar ea l and cover mappi ng and dynami cs
st udi es, and t he user-fri endl y dat a access pol i cy. Thus, t here are i mport ant di fferences i n
t he useful ness of exi st ing dat a sources dependi ng on t he foll owing charact eri sti cs:
I . Obser vat i ons are being conti nuousl y acqui red and dat aset s archi ved by nat i onal
or int ernat i onal agenci es;
I I . There i s gener al underst anding on t he avai l abil it y (i .e., gl obal cl oud- free
cover age) , quali t y and accessi bil it y of t he archi ved dat a;
I I I . Dat a ar e bei ng pre- processed ( i .e. geomet ri cal ly and radi omet ri call y correct ed)
and are made accessi bl e t o t he moni toring communi t y;
I V. Pre- processed dat aset s ar e avail abl e i n int ernat ional or nat ional mapping
agenci es for l and cover and change i nt erpret at i on;
V. Sust ai ned capaci t i es exi st t o produce and use l and cover dat aset s wi t hi n
count ri es and for global assessment s ( e. g., i n devel opi ng count ri es) .
Exi st ing and archi ved sat elli t e dat a sources are not yet full y expl ored for f orest
moni tori ng. I deall y, all rel evant observat i ons (sat el li t e and i n si t u) should meet a set of
si x requirement s in Tabl e 2. 9.4 t o be consi dered full y useful and operat i onal . Tabl e 2.9.4
furt her emphasi zes t hat act i ve sat ell i t e remot e sensi ng dat a ( i .e. Radar and Li dar) ar e
becomi ng more avai l abl e on a continuous basi s and sui t abl e for change anal ysi s. Thi s wi ll
enabl e bet t er synergi sti c use wi t h current opti cal sensors, t o increase frequency of cl oud
free dat a cover age and enhance t he det ail ed and accuracy of moni tori ng product s.
The i nt ernat i onal Eart h obser vat i on communi t y i s aware of t he needs for pre- processed
sat elli t e dat a bei ng avail abl e i n devel oping count ri es. The gap bet ween acquiring sat elli t e
observat ions and t hei r avai l abili t y (i n t he ar chi ves) and processing t he dat a i n a sui t abl e
format t o be ready f or use by developing count ri es for t hei r forest area change
assessment s i s bei ng bridged t he space agenci es and dat a provi ders such as USGS,
NASA, ESA, JAXA, I NPE, and int ernat i onal coordi nat i on mechani sm of CEOS, GOFC-GOLD
and GEO. These effort s will in t he next few year s furt her decrease t he amount of cost s
and effort s t o use sat ellit e observat i ons for nat ional -l evel REDD+ moni toring.
2- 141
Table 2.9 .4. Current avail abil it y of fine- scal e sat elli t e dat a sources and capaci t i es for
gl obal l and cover change obser vat i ons gi ven si x gener al requirement s ( Not e: dar k
gray= common or ful l y appli cabl e, li ght gray= part i all y appli cabl e/ sever al exampl es,
whi t e= rar e or no appli cat ions or exampl es) .

Satellite observation
system/program
Technical
observation
challenges
solved
Access to
information
on quality of
archived data
worldwide
Continuous
observation
program for
global
coverage
Pre-processed
global image
datasets
generated &
accessible
Image data
available in
mapping
agencies for
land change
analysis
Capacities to
sustainably
produce/ use
map
products in
developing
countries
LANDSAT TM/ETM
ASTER On demand
SPOT HRV (1-5) Commercially
CBERS 1-3 Regionally
IRS / Indian program Regionally
O
P
T
I
C
A
L DMC program Probably Commercially
ALOS/PALSAR + JERS Regionally
ENVISAT ASAR, ERS
1+2
Regionally
S
A
R
TERRARSAR-X Commercially
IKONOS, GEOEye Probably Commercially
ICESAT/GLAS (LIDAR)


2. 9. 9 Key references for Sect ion 2.9
Bacci ni A, Laport e NT, Goet z SJ, Sun M, Dong H ( 2008) A first map of t ropi cal Afri ca' s
above- ground bi omass deri ved from sat elli t e i magery. Envi ronment al Resear ch
Let t ers, 045011
Boudreau J, Nel son RF, Margol i s HA et al . ( 2008) Regi onal aboveground forest biomass
usi ng ai rborne and spaceborne Li DAR i n Quebec. Remot e Sensing of Envi ronment ,
112: 3876-3890.
Brown S, Pearson T, Sl aymaker D, et al . (2005) Creat i ng a vi rt ual t ropi cal forest from
t hree- di mensi onal aeri al i mager y t o est i mat e Carbon Stocks. Ecological Appl icat i ons
15: 1083- 1095
Drake JB, Knox RG, Dubayah RO, et al . ( 2003) Above- ground bi omass est i mat i on i n
cl osed canopy Neot ropi cal f orest s usi ng lidar remot e sensi ng: fact ors affect i ng t he
gener ali t y of rel at ionshi ps. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12: 147- 159.
Goet z SJ, Bacci ni A, Laport e N, et al . ( 2009) Mappi ng & moni tori ng carbon st ocks wi t h
sat el li t e observat i ons: a compari son of met hods. Carbon Balance and Management ,
4: 2
Hardi ng DJ, Carabaj al CC ( 2005) I CESat waveform measurement s of wi t hi n-foot pri nt
t opographi c rel i ef and veget at i on vert i cal st ruct ure. Geophysical Resear ch Let t ers, 32
Hought on RA (2005) Aboveground forest bi omass and t he global carbon bal ance. Global
Change Biology. 11: 945- 958.
2- 142
Kai mowi t z D, Angel sen A ( 1998) Economi c Model s of Tropi cal Deforest at i on: a Revi ew.
Cent re for I nt ernat i onal Forest r y Resear ch, Jakart a, 139 pp.
Lambin EF, Turner I I BL, Gei st H et al . ( 2001) The Causes of Land- Use and –Cover
Change: Moving beyond t he Myt hs. Global Environment al Change 11: 5- 13.
Li m K, Trei t z P, Wulder MA, St - Onge B, Flood M ( 2003) Li dar remot e sensing of f orest
st ruct ure. Progress in Physical Geography, 27: 88- 106.
Næsset E ( 2002) Predi ct ing forest st and char act eri st i cs wi t h ai rborne scanning l aser
usi ng a pract i cal t wo- st age procedure and fi el d dat a. Remot e Sensing of
Environment , 80: 88-99.
Nel son R, Val enti M, Short A, Kel l er C (2003) A mul t ipl e resource i nvent ory of Del awar e
usi ng ai rborne l aser dat a. BioSci ence. 53: 981-992.
Pearson T, Brown S, Pet rova S, Moore N, Sl aymaker D (2005) Applicat ion of
Mul ti spect r al 3- Di mensi onal Aeri al Di git al I magery f or Est i mat i ng Carbon St ocks i n a
Closed Tropi cal Forest . Report t o The Nat ure Conservancy
Saat chi SS, Hought on RA, Al val a R, Soares JV, Yu Y ( 2007) Di st ri buti on of aboveground
li ve biomass in the Amazon basi n. Global Change Biology, 13: 816-837
Sal es MH, Souza Jr. CM, Kyri aki di s PC, Robert s DA, Vi dal E (2007) I mproving spat i al
di st ri bution est i mat i on of forest bi omass wit h geost at i st i cs: A case st udy for
Rondôni a, Brazil . Ecological Model ling: 205, 221- 230.
Tomppo E, Nil sson M, Rosengren M, Aal t o P, Kennedy P, ( 2002) Si mul t aneous use of
Landsat - TM and I RS- 1c Wi FS dat a in est i mat i ng l arge area t r ee st em vol ume and
aboveground biomass. Remot e Sensing of Environment . 82: 156−171.
Vel dkamp T, Lambi n EF ( 2001) Predi cti ng l and- use change. Agri cul ture, Ecosyst ems &
Environment 85: 1-6.
3- 143

3 PRACTI CAL EXAMPLES FOR DATA COLLECTI ON

3.1 METHODS USED BY ANNEX- 1 COUNTRI ES FOR
NATI ONAL LULUCF I NVENTORI ES
Gi acomo Grassi , Joint Resear ch Cent re, I t al y
Mi chael Brady, Nat ural Resources Canada - Canadi an Forest Ser vi ce
St ephen Kul l, Nat ural Resources Canada - Canadi an Forest Ser vi ce
Werner Kurz, Nat ural Resources Canada - Canadi an Forest Ser vi ce
Gar y Ri chards, Depart ment of Climat e Change, Aust rali a
3. 1. 1 Scope of chapter
Gi ven t he hi gh het erogenei t y t hat char act eri zes t he l andscape of most Annex- 1 Part i es,
t he est i mat i on of GHG emi ssi ons and removal s from t he Land Use, Land Use Change and
Forest ry ( LULUCF) sect or t ypi call y represent s one of t he most chall enging aspect s of t he
nat i onal GHG i nvent ori es. Thi s i s wi tnessed al so by t he fact t hat , based on the
informat i on submi t t ed annual l y t o UNFCCC
68
, i t emerges t hat t he LULUCF sect or of most
Annex- 1 Part i es i s st ill not full y compl et e ( i n t erms of cat egori es and carbon pool s) , and
t hat uncert ai nti es ar e st i ll rat her hi gh. However, i t should be al so consi dered t hat , gi ven
t he i mmi nent reporti ng under t he Kyoto Prot ocol (from 2010) , si gnifi cant i mprovement s
will li kel y occur in coming years.
Thi s het erogenei t y i s al so refl ect ed i n the met hods used by Annex- 1 Part i es t o est i mat e
GHG emi ssions and removal s from t he LULUCF sect or, whi ch l argel y depend on nat i onal
ci rcumst ances, i ncluding avail abl e dat a and t hei r charact eri st i cs.
Wi th regard t o t he cat egory “ forest l and” , in most Annex-1 Part i es, forest i nvent ori es
provi de t he basi c i nput s for bot h act i vi t y dat a ( ar ea of forest and conversi ons t o/ from
forest ) and emi ssi on f act ors ( carbon st ock changes in t he various pool s) . Furthermore,
t he use of sat el lit e dat a i s not yet very common for LULUCF i nvent ori es, al t hough t he
si t uat ion may rapi dl y change. Except i ons al ready exi st , wi t h some count ri es wi thout
forest invent ori es rel yi ng heavil y on sat eli t e dat a and modell ing approaches.
Thi s sect ion provi des a short overvi ew of t he vari et y of met hods used by Annex- 1 Part i es
for est i mat i ng f orest ar ea changes (3.1.2) , carbon st ock changes (3.1.3) and t he rel at ed
uncert ai nti es (3.1.4) . I t al so incl udes t wo rel evant exampl es ill ust rat ing how empi ri cal
yi el d- dat a dri ven modeli ng ( Canada) and process model ing (Aust ral i a) can be used t o
est i mat e GHG emi ssi ons and removal s from LULUCF.
3. 1. 2 Met hods for est imati ng forest area changes
The i dentifi cat i on of t he act i vi t y dat a ( area of a l and use cat egory, e.g. forest l and) oft en
represent s t he most di ffi cul t st ep for a LULUCF GHG invent ory, part i cul arl y for t he areas


68
Nat ional invent ory report s by Annex- 1 Part ies can be f ound at :
ht t p: / / unf ccc. int / nat ional_report s/ annex_i_ghg_invent ories/ it ems/ 2715. php
3- 144
subj ect t o l and use changes ( e.g. t o/ from forest ) . Thi s i s wi tnessed, for exampl e, by t he
fact t hat t ill 2009 about 30% of Annex- 1 Part i es di d not report “l and convert ed t o forest ”
( oft en i ncl uded i n t he cat egory “ forest r emai ni ng forest ” ) and about 50% di d not report
yet deforest at ion. Thi s si t uat ion i mproved si gnifi cant l y i n 2010, when t he accounting of
Afforest at i on/ Reforest at i on and Deforest at i on since 1990 became mandat ory wi t h the
fi rst year of t he reporting under t he Kyot o Prot ocol .
Dependi ng on t he avai l abl e dat a, vari ous met hodol ogi es are appli ed by Annex I count ri es
t o gener at e t he t i me seri es for annual act i vit y dat a. I n any case, as most of t he
met hodologi es are not capabl e t o generat e dat a wi t h annual ti me st eps, i nt erpol ation
and ext r apol at i on t echni ques (i .e., bet ween year s or beyond t he l at est avail abl e year)
are wi del y used t o produce t he annual dat a needed f or a GHG i nvent ory.
Gi ven t he predomi nant rol e that remot e sensi ng will li kel y pl ay in t he fut ure REDD+
i mpl ement at i on, here we mai nl y f ocus on t hi s met hodology.
Accordi ng t o t he i nformat i on avail abl e f rom t he Nat i onal I nvent ory Report s ( NI R) ( Tabl e
3. 1.1) , onl y 23 Annex- 1 Part i es ( about 60%) expl i ci tl y indi cat ed t he use of some r emot e
sensi ng t echni ques ( or t he use of rel at ed product s, e.g. Cori ne Land Cover) in t he
preparat i on of t heir GHG i nvent ori es. Generall y, t hese count ri es i nt egrat ed t he exi st i ng
ground- based i nformat ion ( e.g., nat i onal st at i st ics for t he agri cul t ural , forest r y, hydr auli c
and urban sect ors, veget at ion and t opographi c maps, cli mat e dat a) wi t h remot e sensi ng
dat a (l i ke aeri al phot ographs, sat ell it e i magery usi ng vi si bl e and/ or near-i nfrared bands,
et c.) , usi ng GI S t echni ques.
I n part i cul ar, t he fol lowing remot e sensi ng t echniques were used:
1) Aeri al phot ography: al t hough anal ysi s of aer i al phot ographs i s consi dered one of t he
most expensi ve met hod for represent i ng l and ar eas, 11 Annex- 1 Part i es used t hi s
met hodol ogy, i n combi nat i on wi t h ground dat a and in some case wi t h ot her
t echni ques or l and cover map ( e.g. CORI NE Land cover) , t o det ect l and use and l and
use changes. For inst ance, France used 15600 aeri al phot ographs t oget her wi t h
ground surveys ( TerUt i LUCAS) . The reason i s essent i all y due t o t he exi st ence for
some count ri es of hi st ori c aeri al phot os acqui red for ot her purposes; al t hough these
i mages are somet i mes char act eri zed by di fferent spat i al resol ution and quali t y, t hey
permi t t o moni tor accurat el y l and use and l and use changes back i n the past .
2) Sat ell i t e i magery ( usi ng vi si bl e and/ or near -infrared bands and rel at ed product s):
onl y very f ew count ri es used det ail ed sat elli t e i mager y in t he vi si bl e and/ or near-
infrared bands for represent i ng l and areas.
For exampl e, Aust ral i a combined coar se ( NOAA/ AVHRR) and det ai l ed ( LANDSAT
MMS, TM, ETM+ ) sat elli t e i magery t o obt ain long t i me seri es of dat a ( see Ch. 3.1.4.1
for furt her det ai l s) . Canada uses sat elli t e i magery t o generat e a det ai l ed mosai c of
di st inct l and cover cat egori es; accordi ng t o t heir NI R, in 2006 t hey used LANDSAT,
SPOT, I RS (I ndi an Remot e Sensi ng Syst em) imager y and Googl e maps ( based on
LANDSAT and QUI CKBI RD) whereas i n 2007 only LANDSAT imager y wer e used.
New Zeal and based t hei r Land Cover Dat abase ( LCDB1 and 2) on SPOT (2 and 3)
and LANDSAT 7 ETM+ sat el li t e i mager y; mappi ng of l and use in 2009 will use SPOT 5
sat el li t e i magery. Wi t hin t he LUCAS proj ect ( Land Use and Carbon Anal ysi s Syst em) ,
t he locat ion and ti ming of forest har vest i ng will be i denti fi ed wi t h medium spat i al
resoluti on (250 m) MODI S sat el li t e i magery, whil e t he act ual area of harvest i ng and
deforest at i on wil l be det ermi ned wi th high resol ution sat elli t e syst ems or aeri al
photography.
Fr ance used numerous sat el li t e i mages for represent ing l and areas of French
Guyana: in t ot al , 16786 ground poi nt s were anal yzed i n 1990 and 2006 using
LANDSAT and SPOT i magery, respect i vel y.
3- 145
Table 3.1 .1. Use of Remot e Sensi ng in Annex I Count ri es, as report ed i n t hei r l at est
Nat ional I nvent ory Report s ( from Achard et al . 2008) .
Sat ell it e imagery ( using vi si bl e and/ or
near- infr ared bands and relat ed pr oduct s)
Annex- I
Count ries
A
e
r
i
a
l

P
h
o
t
o
g
r
a
p
h
y

C
o
a
r
s
e

r
e
s
o
l
u
t
i
o
n

M
e
d
i
u
m

r
e
s
o
l
u
t
i
o
n


F
i
n
e

r
e
s
o
l
u
t
i
o
n



C
O
R
I
N
E

(
C
L
C
)

S
a
t
e
l
l
i
t
e

o
r

a
i
r
b
o
r
n
e

r
a
d
a
r

i
m
a
g
e
r
y

A
i
r
b
o
r
n
e

L
I
D
A
R

Aust ralia Yes Yes Yes
Aust ria
Belgium Yes
4

Bulgaria
Canada Yes Yes Yes
2

Cr oat ia
Czech Republic Yes
Denmark
Est onia Yes
4

Finland Yes
5,6

Fr ance Yes Yes
5

Germany Yes
4

Greece
Hungary Yes
4

I cel and Yes Yes
1

I reland Yes
I t aly Yes Yes
1
Yes
4

Japan Yes
4

Lat vi a
Liecht enst ein Yes
Lit huania
Luxembourg Yes Yes
1

Monaco
Net herl ands Yes
1

New Zeal and Yes Yes
1
Yes Yes
1
Yes
1
Yes
1

Norway Yes Yes
3

Pol and
Port ugal Yes
4

Romani a
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain Yes
4

Sweden Yes
4,5,6

Swit zerland Yes
Turkey Yes
4

Ukraine
Unit ed Ki ngdom
USA Yes Yes
6


Not es: 1. Use of t hi s met hodol ogy pl anned i n t he fut ur e; 2. Met hodol ogy r eport ed i n pr evi ous NI R but not i n
t he l at est ; 3. The i nt ent i on t o use t hi s met hodol ogy r eport ed i n pr evi ous NI R but not i n t he l at est ; 4.
Met hodol ogy used onl y for report i ng of some I PCC cat egori es; 5. Met hodol ogy used onl y f or repor t i ng of a
port i on of t erri t or y of t he Count r y; 6. Met hodol ogy not speci fi ed. Not e t hat NI Rs by Russi an Federat i on and
Bel arus were not i ncl uded i n t hi s anal ysi s because onl y avai labl e i n Russi an.

Some European count ri es report ed t he use of sat elli t e i magery for supporti ng
st r at i fi cat i on of t he nat i onal forest i nvent ory. Furt hermor e, 10 count ri es used exi st ing
l and cover maps, li ke t he CORI NE product s ( 1990 and or 2000 maps, and t he
associ at ed change product ) , t hat ar e based on i nt erpret at ion of sat elli t e i magery and
t hei r veri fi cat i on t hrough ground surveys. For exampl e, Czech Republi c and I rel and
3- 146
used t he CORI NE product s f or reporti ng all t he cat egori es i ndi cat ed by I PCC ( 2003) ,
whereas ot her count ri es used t he CORI NE Land Cover map ( CLC) t o report onl y some
I PCC cat egori es, li ke Est oni a ( organi c soil s) , Hungary (wet l ands) , Germany, I t al y,
Port ugal , Spain and Turkey.
3) Sat el li t e or ai rborne radar i mager y: none count ri es report ed t he use of sat elli t e or
ai rborne radar i magery for represent i ng l and areas. New Zeal and may use sat elli t e
radar, wi t hin t he LUCAS proj ect , t o i dentify t he l ocat ion and ti mi ng of f orest
harvest i ng if t he eval uat i on of usi ng medium spat i al resol uti on ( 250 m) MODI S
sat el li t e i mages wil l be unsuccessf ul .
4) Ai rborne LI DAR ( Li ght Det ect i ng and Ranging) : onl y New Zeal and report s t he use of
ai rborne Li DAR, in combi nati on wi th fi el d measurement s, t o est i mat e for 2008 t he
changes i n carbon st ocks i n forest s pl ant ed aft er January 1st 1990, wi thin plot s
est abli shed on a 4 km gri d across t he count ry. The Li DAR dat a ar e cali brat ed agai nst
t he fi el d measurement s and onl y for forest pl ots t hat ar e i naccessi bl e Li DAR dat a wi ll
be processed t o provi de t he t ot al amount of carbon per plot ; t he measurement
process on t he same pl ot s will be repeat ed at t he end of t he Kyot o Prot ocol ’s
commi t ment peri od ( around 2012) .
I n concl usion, onl y a mi nori t y of count ri es – t ypi call y charact eri zed by l arge l and areas
not easi l y accessi bl e - make di rect use of sat ell i t e- remot e sensi ng for GHG i nvent ory
preparat i on. By cont rast , most European count ri es - t ypi call y charact eri zed by more
int ensi ve l and management and by a l ong t radi ti on of forest i nvent ori es – at t he moment
do not use sat elli t e- remot e sensi ng, or uses onl y deri ved product s such as CORI NE, at
l east for gat heri ng ancill ary informat i on. I n these cases, forest area and forest ar ea
changes ar e det ermi ned t hrough ot her met hods, i ncl udi ng permanent pl ot s, forest and
agri cul tural surveys, census, regi st ri es or observat i onal maps.
Thus, in most cases, t he use of sat elli t e dat a f or LULUCF i nvent ori es by Annex-1 Part i es
i s current l y not as i mport ant as i t will li kel y be for REDD. However, t he si t uat i on seems
in rapi d development , as several Annex I count ri es have i ndi cat ed t he int ent i on t o use
more remot e sensi ng dat a i n t he near fut ure ( e.g., I t al y, Net herl ands, Denmark,
Luxembourg, I cel and) .
3. 1. 3 Met hods for est imati ng carbon stock changes
As expl ai ned i n Chapt er 2.3, t he approaches used t o assess t he changes of carbon st ocks
in di fferent carbon pool s are essent i all y t wo: t he “ gai n-loss” approach ( somet i mes call ed
“ process- based” or “ I PCC defaul t ” ) , whi ch est i mat es t he net bal ance of addi t ions t o and
removal s from a carbon pool, and t he “ st ock change” ( or “ st ock- di ff erence” ) , whi ch
est i mat es t he di fference in carbon st ocks i n a gi ven carbon pool at t wo point s in ti me.
Whil e t he gain-loss can be appli ed wi t h al l t i er l evel s, t he st ock change approach
t ypi call y requires count ry- speci fi c informat i on (i .e. at l east t i er 2) .
I n general , for t he cat egory “forest l and”, t he most i mport ant pool i n t erms of carbon
st ock changes i s t he aboveground biomass, bot h f or t he removal s ( e.g. in “l and
convert ed t o forest ” and “ forest r emai ning forest ” ) and for t he emi ssi ons ( e.g.
deforest at i on) ; however, some except ion may al so occur, e.g. emi ssi ons f rom organi c
soi l s may be f ar more rel evant t han carbon st ock changes i n bi omass.
For t he aboveground biomass pool of forest , t he maj ori t y of Annex-1 Parti es ei t her use
t he gai n-l oss or a mi x of t he t wo approaches, dependi ng on t he avail abili t y of dat a; i n
t hi s case, t i er 2 or t i er 3 met hods ar e t ypi call y appli ed, i .e. t he i nput for cal cul at ing
carbon st ock changes ar e count ry- speci fi c dat a on growt h, harvest and nat ural
di st urbances ( e.g. forest fi res) , oft en based on or compl ement ed by yi el d model s ( e.g.
UK, I t al y, I rel and) . By cont rast , r el at i vel y few count ri es i ndi cat e t he use of t he st ock
change approach ( e.g. Sweden, Germany, Spai n, Bel gium, US) . Both approaches use
( di rect l y or i ndi rect l y) of ti mber vol ume dat a coll ect ed t hrough regi onal or nat i onal f orest
invent ori es; in t hese cases, t he conversi on f rom t i mber vol ume int o carbon st ock i s
3- 147
gener al l y done wi t h count ry- speci fi c biomass f unct ions ( e. g. Aust ri a, Finl and, I rel and and
Spai n) or bi omass expansi on fact ors. For belowground biomass, most count ri es use
defaul t or count ry- speci fi c rat ios of above t o bel owground biomass.
Regarding t he ot her pool s ( dead organi c mat t er and soi l s) t he si t uat i on i s rat her di verse.
I n several cases, due t o t he l ack of appropri at e dat a, t he t i er - 1 met hod i s used, whi ch
assumes no change in carbon st ock ( except for drained organi c soi l s) in case of no
change in l and uses ( e. g. forest remaini ng f orest ) . For dead organi c mat t er and soi l s t hi s
assumpt i ons i s appl i ed by about 40% and 60% of Annex- 1 count ri es, respect i vel y; t he
ot her count ri es use ei t her count ry- speci fi c fact ors or model s (i .e. ti er 2 and 3 met hods) .
I n case of l and use change ( from/ t o f orest ) , t he carbon st ock changes of t hese pool s i s
gener al l y assessed by t he di ff erence of carbon st ock r efer ence val ues (i n most cases
count ry- speci fi c and appropri at el y di saggregat ed) bet ween t he t wo l and uses.
3. 1. 4 National carbon budget models
Thi s chapt er il lust rat es t wo rel evant exampl es of ti er - 3 model s for est i mat i ng GHG
emi ssi ons and removal s from forest s: an empi ri cal yi el d- dat a dri ven model (Canada,
3. 1.4.1) and a sat elli t e dat a- dri ven process model (Aust rali a, 3.1.4.2) .
3.1 .4.1 The Operat ional- Scale Carbon Budget Model of t he Canadian Forest
Sect or ( CBM- CFS3)
For over t wo decades, Nat ural Resources Canada’s Canadi an Forest Ser vi ce ( CFS) has
been i nvol ved in resear ch ai med at underst andi ng and modeling carbon dynami cs i n
Canada’s forest ecosyst ems. I n 2001, the CFS i n part nershi p wi th Canada’s Model
Forest Net work set out t o desi gn, devel op and di st ri but e an operat i onal - scal e f orest
carbon accounti ng modeli ng soft ware program t o Canada’ s forest r y communi t y. The
soft war e woul d gi ve forest managers, be t hey small woodl ot owners or provi nci al or
indust ri al forest managers, a t ool wi th whi ch t o assess t hei r forest ecosyst em carbon
st ocks, and forest management pl anning opt ions i n t erms of t hei r abil it y t o sequest er
and st ore carbon from t he at mosphere.
The CBM- CFS3 was al so developed t o be t he cent ral model of Canada’s Nat i onal Forest
Carbon Moni toring, Accounting and Report i ng Syst em (NFCMARS) ( Kurz and Apps 2006) ,
whi ch i s used for int ernat i onal reporting of t he carbon bal ance of Canada’s managed
forest (Kurz et al . 2009). I t s purpose i s t o est i mat e forest carbon st ocks, changes i n
carbon st ocks, and emi ssi ons of non- CO
2
greenhouse gases i n Canada’s managed
forest s. The NFCMARS i s based on an empi ri cal yi el d- dat a dri ven model approach. I t i s
desi gned t o est i mat e past changes i n f orest carbon st ocks—i .e., from 1990 t o 2007
( moni toring) —and t o predi ct , based on scenarios of future di st urbance r at es, l and- use
change and management act i ons, changes i n carbon st ocks in t he next t wo t o t hree
decades ( proj ect i on) .
The syst em i nt egrat es informat i on - such as forest i nvent ori es, informat i on on forest
growt h and yi el d obt ained from t emporary and permanent sampl e pl ot s, st at i st i cs on
nat ural di st urbances such fi res and i nsect s, and l and-use change and forest management
act i vi ti es. The NFCMARS model ing framework i ncorporat es t he best avai l abl e informat i on
and sci enti fi c underst andi ng of t he ecologi cal processes i nvol ved i n forest carbon cycling
( Fi gure 3.1.2). Key el ement s of t he Syst em i nclude:
 The Carbon Budget Model of t he Canadian Forest Sect or ( CBM- CFS3)
 Tracking Land- Use Change ( moni tori ng changes in carbon st ocks t hat resul t
from afforest at ion, reforest at i on, or deforest at ion act i vi ti es in Canada)
 Forest I nvent ory ( area- based invent ory approach for managed and unmanaged
forest )
 Forest Management and Disturbance Monitoring ( use t he best avail abl e
st at i st i cs on forest management and nat ur al di st urbances, obt ai ned from t he
3- 148
Nat ional Forest ry Dat abase program, t he Canadi an Wi ldl and Fi re I nformat i on
Syst em, and from provi nci al and t erri t ori al resource management agenci es)
 Spat ial Framework ( A nest ed ecol ogi cal framework, consi st ing of 18 reporti ng
zones based on t he Terrest ri al Ecozones of Canada. Beneat h t hese, 2 l ayer s of
nest ed spat i al uni t s compri sed of 60 reconcili ation uni t s and over 500
management uni t s are included.)
 Special Proj ect s t o advance t he sci enti fi c basi s of t he NFCMARS, a number of
speci al resear ch, moni t oring and model ing proj ect s ar e conduct ed ( Fl uxnet
st udi es, addi ng spat i all y expli ci t modeli ng, dead organi c mat t er cali brat ion and
uncert ai nt y and sensi ti vi t y anal ysi s)
Figure 3 .1.2. CBM- CFS3 uses dat a from forest management pl anning for nat ional - scal e
int egrat i on of forest C cycl e dat a.



Mai n out put s:
 Nat ional I nvent ory Report (as every Annex- 1 count ry, Canada prepar es an
annual Nat ional I nvent ory Report det ailing t he count ry’s gr eenhouse gas
emi ssi ons and r emoval s, as per Uni t ed Nat i ons Fr amework Convent i on on Cli mat e
Change gui delines ( UNFCCC) ht t p: / / www. ec.gc. ca/ pdb/ ghg/ invent ory_e. cfm) .
 Policy Development Support ( work wi th pol icy makers i n bot h t he federal and
provi nci al government s t o ensure f orest pol i cy devel opment i s support ed by
sound sci ence)
The CBM-CFS3 i s a st and- and l andscape l evel modeli ng framework t hat si mul at es t he
dynami cs of al l forest carbon st ocks requi red under t he UNFCCC. I t i s compli ant wi t h the
carbon est i mat ion met hods of t he Ti er - 3 approach outlined in t he Good Pract i ce
Gui dance for Land Use, Land- Use Change, and Forest ry ( 2003) report publi shed by t he
I nt ergovernment al Panel on Cl imat e Change ( I PCC 2003) .
The model builds on t he same informat i on used for forest management pl anning
act i vi ti es (e.g., f orest i nvent ory dat a, t ree speci es, nat ural and human-induced
di st urbance informat i on, forest har vest schedul es and l and- use change informat i on) ,
suppl ement ed wi t h informat ion from nat ional ecol ogi cal paramet er set s and volume- t o-
bi omass equat i ons appropri at e f or Canadi an speci es and forest regi ons.
Al t hough t he model currentl y cont ains a set of defaul t ecologi cal paramet ers appropri at e
for Canada, t hese par amet ers can be modi fi ed by t he user, allowing for t he pot ent i al
appl i cat i on of t he model in ot her count ri es. Ot her l anguages ar e bei ng added t o t he user
int erface.
3- 149
I nt ernat ional act ivit ies
The CFS Carbon Accounting Team ( CAT) holds CBM- CFS3 t rai ni ng workshops across
Canada. Many forei gn part i ci pant s have al so been t r ai ned. I nt erest in Canada’ s
innovat i ve approach t o forest GHG model ing and reporting t hrough t he NFCMARS has
been growing. I n 2005, NRCAN began a bil at eral proj ect wi t h t he Russi an Feder al Forest
Agency t o share knowl edge and approaches t o forest carbon accounting wi th sci enti st s in
Russi a where t he model has been used f or regional - and nat ional - scal e anal yses. Mor e
recent l y, t he CFS- CAT began a coll aborat i ve proj ect wi t h CONAFOR (Comi sión Naci onal
Forest al ) , t he Government of Mexi co’s Mi ni st ry of Forest s, t o assess and t est t he
sui t abi li t y of t he CBM- CFS3 in t he wi de range of forest s and cl i mat es of t hat count ry. The
ai m of t he proj ect i s t o det ermi ne whet her t he model could cont ribut e t owards Mexi co’s
GHG accounting syst em and t owards Mexi co’s effort s t o account for t he effect s of
reducing emi ssions from deforest at i on and degradat i on ( REDD) . The model can be used
in REDD+ or proj ect - based mi ti gat ion effort s t o provi de bot h the baseli ne and t he wi th-
proj ect est i mat es of GHG emi ssi ons and removal s.
The CFS- CAT i s conti nui ng t o devel op and refine t he CBM- CFS3 t o accommodat e
i mprovement s i n t he sci ence of t he forest carbon cycl e, changes i n policy surrounding
cli mat e change and forest s, and changes t o broaden t he use and appli cabil it y of t he
model i n ot her ecosyst ems. For more i nformat i on vi si t : ht t p: / / carbon.cfs.nrcan. gc. ca
3.1 .4.2 Nat ional Carbon Accounting Syst em ( NCAS) of Aust ralia
The NCAS was est abli shed by t he Aust r ali an Government in 1998 to comprehensi vel y
moni tor greenhouse gas emi ssi ons at al l scal es ( proj ect t hrough to nati onal) , wi t h
cover age of all pool s (l i ving biomass, debri s and soil ) , all gases (CO2 and non-CO2) , all
l ands and al l act i vi ti es. The approach i s spat i al ly and t emporall y expli ci t , and i ncl usi ve of
all l ands and causes of emi ssions and removal s, i ncludi ng cli mat e vari abil it y. I t i s
current l y t he onl y exampl e of t he full appli cat ion of a Ti er 3, Approach 3 modeling
syst em.
The NCAS represent s one of t he few exampl es of a fully int egrat ed, purpose buil t carbon
accounti ng syst em t hat i s not based around a long-t erm nat i onal forest i nvent ory (whi ch
di d not exi st i n Aust rali a) . The syst em was desi gned speci fi call y t o meet Aust r ali a’s
int ernat ional reporti ng needs (UNFCCC and Kyot o) as well as supporti ng proj ect based
accounti ng under fut ure market mechani sms. The key poli cy i ssues t hat t he syst em was
desi gned t o address wer e:
 Nat ionall y consi st ent report i ng for all l ands
 Report ing of emi ssions and removal s for 1990
 Sub hect are r eport i ng as requi red by t he Kyot o prot ocol
 Geographi c i dentifi cat i on of proj ect s
A key i ssue f aced by Aust rali a in devel opi ng the NCAS was t he l ack of compl et e and
consi st ent nat i onal forest i nvent ory informat i on, especi all y i n t he woodl and forest s wher e
t he maj ori t y of Aust rali a’s l and use change occurs. I mpl ement ing a nat ional forest
invent ory was consi dered as an opti on, but was r ej ect ed as i t woul d have been
ext remel y cost l y t o est abli sh and mai nt ain, would not have provi ded t he i nformat ion
requi red t o develop an accurat e est i mat e of emi ssi ons and removal s in 1990 and woul d
not have been abl e t o include all pool s and al l gases. I nst ead, Aust r ali a devel oped an
innovat i ve syst em ut ili zi ng a vari et y of ground measured and remot el y acqui red dat a
sources int egrat ed wi t h ecosyst em model s t o allow for full y spat i al expl i ci t modeli ng. The
key el ement s of t he syst em are:
 The Full Carbon Accounti ng Model (Full CAM)
 Ti me seri es consi st ent , compl et e wal l- t o- wal l mappi ng of forest ext ent and
change i n forest ext ent from 1972 at fi ne spat i al scal es ( 25 m pi xel ) usi ng
Landsat dat a
3- 150
 Spat i al l y and t emporall y expl i ci t cli mat e dat a ( e.g. rai nfall , vapour pressure
defi ci t , t emper at ure) and spat i all y expli ci t biophysi cal dat a ( e.g. soil t ypes, carbon
cont ent s)
 Speci es and management i nformat ion
 Ext ensi ve model cali brat i on and val idat i on ground dat a
The core component of t he NCAS i s t he Ful l Carbon Accounting Model ( Full CAM) . Full CAM
i s best descri bed as a mass bal ance, C: N r at i o, hybri d process- empi ri cal ecosyst em
model t hat cal cul at es carbon and ni t rogen flows associ at ed wi t h all biomass, li t t er and
soi l pool s in forest and agri cul t ural syst ems ( Fi gure 3.1.3) . Full CAM uses a vari et y of
spat i al and t emporal dat a, t abul ar and remot el y sensed dat a t o allow for t he spat i all y
expli ci t model ing of:
 Forest s, i ncl uding t he effect s of t hinni ngs, mul tipl e rot at i ons and fires
 Agri cul t ural cropping or grazi ng syst ems - i ncl uding t he effect s of harvest ,
pl oughing, fire, herbi ci des and grazing
 Transi t ions bet ween forest and agri cul ture ( afforest at ion, reforest at ion and
deforest at i on)
The hybri d approach appli ed i n FullCAM uses process model s t o descri be rel at i ve si t e
product i vi t y and t he eff ect s of cli mat e on growt h and decay, whil e si mpl e empi ri cal
model s set t he l i mi t s and general pat t erns of growt h. Hybri d approaches have t he
advant age of being firml y grounded by empi ri cal dat a whil e still refl ect ing si t e condi ti ons.
The seaml ess i nt egrat i on of t he component model s in a mass- bal ance f ramework al lows
for t he use fi el d- based t echni ques t o di rect l y cali brat e and vali dat e est i mat es. These
dat a have been obt ai ned from a vari et y of sources including:
 A t horough revi ew of exi sti ng dat a i n bot h t he publi shed and unpubli shed ( e.g.
PhD t heses) li t erat ure incl uding biomass, debri s and soil carbon
 A comprehensi ve soil carbon sampli ng syst em t o validat e model resul t s
 Full dest ruct i ve sampl ing of forest s t o obt ai n accurat e bi omass measurement s
 Anal ysi s of exi sti ng research dat a for si t e speci fic model cali brat i on and t est i ng
 Ongoing research programs on soi l carbon, bi omass and non- CO2 emi ssions
Full CAM, t he rel at ed dat a and t he NCAS t echni cal report seri es ar e freel y avail abl e as
part of t he Nat i onal Carbon Accounti ng Tool box
( ht t p: / / www.cli mat echange.gov. au/ ncas/ ncat / i ndex.ht ml ) . The Toolbox allows users t o
devel op proj ect l evel account s for t heir propert y usi ng t he t ool s and dat a used t o
devel op the nat i onal account s.

3- 151
Figure 3 .1.3. Graphi cal depi cti on of t he NCAS model ing framework.


I nt ernat ional act ivit ies
Aust rali a has devel oped consi derabl e experi ence and exper t i se in devel oping carbon
accounti ng syst ems t o moni tor l and use change over t he past decade. Aust r ali a i s
current l y invol ved direct l y wi t h count ri es such as I ndonesi a and Papua New Gui nea and
indirect l y t hrough t he Cli nt on Cli mat e I ni ti ati ve t o pass on t he experi ences of developing
t he NCAS. Rat her t han promoting t he di rect appli cat i on of t he Aust rali an NCAS modeling
syst em, t he Aust r ali an Government i s provi ding poli cy and t echni cal advi ce t o all ow
count ri es t o desi gn and devel op t hei r own syst ems t o meet t hei r own speci fi c condi ti ons.
Li ke t he syst ems devel oped by Annex 1 counti es, t hose bei ng devel oped by l ess
devel oped count ri es will differ i n thei r met hods and dat a. However t he resul t s of all t he
syst ems should be comparabl e.
3. 1. 5 Est imation of uncert ai nties
The maj ori t y of Annex- 1 Part i es performed some uncert ai nt y assessment for t he LULUCF
sect or, but in most cases wi t h ti er 1 ( error propagat i on), not coveri ng t he whol e sect or
and oft en l argel y based on exper t j udgment s ( whi ch are rat her uncert ai n t hemsel ves) .
Est i mat ed uncert ai nti es are gener al l y higher for emi ssion fact ors ( i .e. carbon st ock
changes for uni t of area) t han for act i vi t y dat a (i .e. ar ea of di fferent l and uses) , e.g. for
“ forest remai ning forest ” most of t he report ed uncert ai nti es f or t he CO2 removal s by t he
li ving biomass are bet ween 25% and 50%, while for t he forest area are generall y lower
t han 25%. When est i mat ed, uncert ai nti es associ at ed t o l and use changes and t o
emi ssi ons from t he soil pool are t ypi call y higher. As exampl e, t he overall LULUCF
uncert ai nt y of the European Union ( 15 Member St at es) has been preli minary est i mat ed
around 35%.
Pl ease ref er t o Sect i on 2.6 for f urt her informat i on on uncert ai nt y assessment .

Landcover change Management practices
Cli mat e and soil input s



Full CAM I nt egrat ed
modeli ng
3- 152

3. 1. 6 Key References for sect ion 3. 1
Achard F, Gr assi G, Herold M, Teobal dell i M, Mol licone D (2008) Use of sat elli t e remot e
sensing in LULUCF sect or. Background paper at t he I PCC Expert Meet i ng t o consi der
t he current I PCC gui dance on est i mat ing emi ssi ons and removal s of greenhouse
gases from l and uses such as agri cul ture and forest ry. GTOS GOFC- GOLD Report n.
33. Avail abl e at : ht t p: / / www.f ao.org/ gt os/ gofc-gol d/ seri es.ht ml .
I nt ergovernment al Panel on Cli mat e Change ( I PCC) (2003) Penman J et al . ( Eds.) , Good
Pract i ce Gui dance for Land Use, Land- Use Change and Forest ry. I nst i t ut e for Global
Envi ronment al St rat egi es, Hayama.
Kurz WA, Apps MJ ( 2006) Devel opi ng Canada’s Nat i onal Forest Carbon Moni t oring,
Account ing and Report i ng Syst em t o meet t he report i ng requi rement s of t he Kyot o
Prot ocol, Mi tigat ion and Adapt at ion St rat egi es for Global Change, 11: 33–43.
Kurz WA, Dymond CC, Whi t e TM, et al . ( 2009) CBM- CFS3: a model of carbon- dynami cs
in forest ry and l and- use change i mpl ement i ng I PCC st andards, Ecol ogi cal Model ling
220: 480- 504.
NCAS ( Nat i onal Carbon Accounting Syst em of Aust rali a) . Descri pti on avai l abl e at :
www. cl i mat echange. gov. au/ ncas. For furt her informat i on cont act : Dr Gar y
Ri chards, Princi pal Sci enti st , Depar t ment of Cli mat e Change, Email :
Gar y.Ri chards@cli mat echange.gov. au,

3.2 OVERVI EW OF THE EXI STI NG FOREST AREA
CHANGES MONI TORI NG SYSTEMS
Fr édéri c Achard, Joint Resear ch Cent re, I t al y.
Rut h DeFri es, Columbi a Uni versi t y, USA
Devendra Pandey, Forest Survey of I ndi a, I ndi a
Carl os Souza Jr., I MAZON, Brazil
3. 2. 1 Scope of chapter
This chapt er present s an overview of t he exist ing forest area changes
monit oring syst ems at the nat ional scale in t ropical count ries using remot e
sensing imagery.
Sect i on 3.2.2 descri bes nat i onal case st udi es: t he Brazil i an syst em whi ch produces
annual est i mat es of deforest at ion i n t he l egal Amazon, t he I ndi an Nat i onal bi annual
forest cover assessment , an exampl e of a sampling approach in t he Congo basi n and an
exampl e of wall- t o-wall approach i n Cameroon.
3- 153
3. 2. 2 National case st udies
3.2 .2.1 Brazil – annual wall t o wall approach
The Brazili an Nat i onal Space Agency ( I NPE) produces annual est i mat es of deforest at i on
in t he l egal Amazon from a compr ehensi ve annual nat ional monit oring program call ed
PRODES.
The Brazili an Amazon covers an area of approxi mat el y 5 milli on km2, l arge enough t o
cover all of West ern Europe. Around 4 mi llion km2 of t he Brazil i an Amazon i s covered by
forest s. The Government of Brazil deci ded t o generat e peri odi c est i mat es of t he ext ent
and rat e of gross deforest at ion in t he Amazon, “a t ask whi ch coul d never be conduct ed
wi thout t he use of space t echnology”.
The fi rst compl et e assessment by I NPE was undert aken i n 1978. Annual assessment s
have been conduct ed by I NPE si nce 1988. For each assessment up t o 214 Landsat
sat elli t e i mages ar e acqui red around August and anal yzed. Resul t s of t he anal ysi s of t he
sat elli t e i magery are publi shed every year. Spat i al l y- expli ci t resul t s of t he anal ysi s are
al so publ i cl y avai l abl e ( see ht t p: / / www.obt .i npe.br/ prodes/ ) .
The PRODES proj ect has been produci ng t he annual rat e of gross deforest at i on si nce
1988 using a mi ni mum mappi ng ( change det ect i on) uni t of 6.25 ha. To be more det ail ed,
and so as t o profi t from t he dr y weat her condi ti ons of t he summer for cl oud free sat elli t e
i mages, t he proj ect i s carri ed out once a year, wi th t he rel ease of est i mat es foreseen in
December of t hat same year. PRODES uses i magery from TM sensors onboard Landsat
sat elli t es, sensors of DMC sat elli t es and CCD sensors from CBERS sat ell i t es, wi t h a
spat i al resoluti on bet ween 20m and 30m.
PRODES al so provi des t he spat i al di st ri buti on of cri ti cal areas ( in t erms of deforest at i on)
in t he Amazon. As an exampl e, for t he peri od 1
st
August 2007 t o 1
st
August 2008, more
t han 90% of t he deforest at i on was concent rat ed i n 87 of t he 214 sat el li t e i mages
anal yzed.

Box 3. 2.1. Example of result of t he PRODES proj ect
Landsat sat elli t e mosai c of year 2006 wi th deforest at i on during period 2000- 2006
Brazi li an Amazon window Zoom on Mat o Grosso ( around Jurunea)
( ~ 3,400 km x 2,200 km) ( ~ 400 km x 30 km)

Forest ed ar eas appear i n green, non- forest areas appear in viol et , old deforest at i on
( 1997- 2000) in yellow and recent deforest at i on ( from 2001) in orange- red.

A new met hodologi cal approach based on di gi t al processi ng i s now in operat ional phase.
A geo- referenced, mul ti - t emporal dat abase i s produced i ncluding a mosai c of def orest ed
areas by St at es of Brazili an feder at i on. Al l resul t s for t he peri od 1997 t o 2008 are
3- 154
accessi bl e and can be downloaded from t he I NPE web si t e at :
ht t p: / / www.obt . inpe.br/ prodes/ .
Si nce May 2005, t he Brazili an government al so has in operat i on t he DETER ( Det ecção de
Desmat ament o em Tempo Real ) syst em t o ser ve as an al ert in al most real - ti me ( ever y
15 days) for deforest at i on event s l arger t han 25 ha. The syst em uses MODI S dat a
( spat i al resol ution 250m) and WFI dat a on board CBERS- 2 ( spat i al resolution 260m) and
a combinat ion of l inear mi xt ure modeli ng and vi sual anal ysi s. Resul t s are publi cl y
avail abl e t hrough a web- si t e: ht t p: / / www.obt .inpe. br/ det er/ .
I n compl ement t o i t s wel l - known deforest at ion moni toring syst em ( PRODES) and i t s al ert
syst em (DETER) , a new syst em has been devel oped in 2008 t o moni tor forest ar ea
changes wi t hi n forest s ( forest degr adat i on) , part i cul arl y sel ect i ve l ogging, named
DEGRAD. The demand for DEGRAD emerged af t er recent st udi es confirmed t hat l ogging
damages annuall y an ar ea as l arge as t he ar ea aff ect ed by deforest at i on i n t hi s region
(i .e., 10,000- 20,000 km2/ year) . The DEGRAD syst em wi ll support t he management and
moni tori ng of l arge f orest concessi on areas i n t he Brazil i an Amazon. The DEGRAD
syst em i s based on t he det ect i on of degraded ar eas det ect ed from t he DETER al ar m
syst em. As PRODES, DEGRAD i s usi ng Landsat TM and CBERS dat a wi t h a mi ni mum
mapping uni t of 6.25 ha. Degr aded ar eas have been est i mat ed for Brazili an Amazoni a in
2007 and 2008 (ht t p: / / www.obt .i npe.br/ degrad/ ).
3.2 .2.2 I ndia – Biennial wall t o wall approach
The appli cat i on of sat elli t e remot e sensi ng t echnology t o assess t he forest cover of t he
ent i re count ry i n I ndi a began in earl y 1980s. The Nat i onal Remot e Sensi ng Agency
( NRSA) prepared t he fi rst forest map of t he count ry in 1984 at 1: 1 mi llion scal e by vi sual
int erpret at i on of Landsat dat a acquired at t wo periods: 1972- 75 and 1980-82. The
Forest Survey of I ndi a ( FSI ) has since been assessi ng the forest cover of t he count ry on
a t wo year cycl e. Over t he years, t her e have been i mprovement s bot h in t he remot e
sensi ng dat a and t he int erpret at i on t echni ques. The 10t h bi enni al cycl e has j ust been
compl et ed from di gi t al int erpret at i on of dat a from year 2005 at 23.5 m resoluti on wi th a
mini mum mappi ng uni t of 1 ha. The det ail s of t he dat a, scal e of i nt erpret at ion,
met hodology f oll owed in wall to wall forest cover mapping over a period of 2 decades
done in I ndi a i s present ed i n Tabl e 3.2.1.
The ent i re assessment from t he procurement of sat elli t e dat a t o t he r eport ing, i ncl uding
i mage rect i fi cat i on, int erpret at i on, ground t rut hi ng and vali dat i on of t he changes by t he
St at e/ Provi nce Forest Depar t ment , t akes al most t wo years.
The l ast assessment ( XI cycl e) used sat ell i t e dat a from t he I ndi an sat elli t e I RS P6
( Sensor LI SS I I I at 23.5 m resol ution) mostly f rom t he peri od November- December
( 2006) whi ch i s the most sui t abl e peri od for I ndi an deci duous forest s t o be di scri minat ed
by sat elli t e dat a. Sat el li t e i mager y wi t h l ess t han 10% cl oud cover i s sel ect ed for t he 321
scenes coveri ng t he I ndi an Terri tory. For a few cases ( e.g. nort h-east regi on and
Andaman & Ni cobar I sl ands where avail abi lit y of cloud free dat a during Nov- Dec i s
di ffi cul t ) the dat a peri od was ext ended up t o March 2007.
3- 155
Table 3.2.1. St at e of t he Forest Assessment s of I ndi a
Assess-
ment
Dat a
Period
Sat ellit e Sensor Resolution Scale Analysis
Forest
Cover
Million ha
I 1981-83 LANDSAT- MSS 80 m 1: 1 mill ion vi sual 64. 08
I I 1985-87 LANDSAT- TM 30 m 1: 250,000 vi sual 63. 88
I I I 1987-89 LANDSAT- TM 30 m 1: 250,000 Vi sual 63. 94
I V 1989-91 LANDSAT- TM 30 m 1: 250,000 Vi sual 63. 94
V 1991-93 I RS- 1B LI SSI I 36.25 m 1: 250,000 Vi sual 63. 89
VI 1993-95 I RS- 1B LI SSI I 36.25 m 1: 250,000 Vi sual 63. 34
VI I 1996-98 I RS- 1C/ 1D LI SS I I I 23.5 m 1: 250,000
di gi t al /
vi sual
63. 73
VI I I 2000 I RS- 1C/ 1D LI SS I I I 23.5 m 1: 50,000 di gi t al 65. 38
I X 2002 I RS- 1D LI SS I I I 23.5 m 1: 50,000 di gi t al 67. 78
X End 2004 I RS P6 LI SS I I I 23.5 m 1: 50,000 di gi t al 67. 70
XI End 2006 I RS P6- LI SS I I I 23.5 m 1: 50,000 di gi t al 69. 09

Sat el lit e dat a are di gi t all y processed, i ncl uding radiomet ri c and cont rast correct i ons and
geomet ri c rect i fi cat ion (using geo- referenced t opographi c sheet s at 1: 50,000 scal e from
Survey of I ndi a) . The int erpret at ion i nvol ves a hybri d approach combi ning unsupervi sed
cl assi fi cat ion in rast er format and on screen vi sual int erpret at i on of cl asses. The
Normali zed Di fference Veget at i on I ndex ( NDVI ) i s used for excl uding non- veget at ed
areas. The areas of l ess t han 1 ha are fi l t ered (removed).
The i ni ti al int erpret at ion i s t hen followed by ext ensi ve ground veri fi cat ion whi ch t akes
more t han si x months. All t he necessary cor rect ions are subsequent l y i ncorporat ed.
Reference dat a coll ect ed by t he i nt erpret er during t he fi el d campai gns are used in t he
cl assi fi cat ion of t he forest cover pat ches i nt o canopy densi t y cl asses. Di st ri ct wi se and
St at es/ Union Terri t ori es forest cover maps ar e produced.
Accuracy assessment i s an i ndependent exerci se. Randoml y sel ect ed sampl e poi nt s ar e
veri fi ed on the ground ( fi eld invent ory dat a) or wi th sat elli t e dat a at 5.8 m resol ut ion and
compar ed wi t h i nt erpret at i on resul t s. I n t he XI assessment , 4,302 point s were r andoml y
di st ri but ed over t he ent i re count ry. The overall accuracy l evel of the forest cover
mapping for year 2006 (5 forest cl asses) has been f ound t o be 92.1%.
I ndi a cl assi fi es i t s l ands i nt o the fol lowi ng cover cl asses:


Very Dense Forest
All l ands wi th t ree cover of canopy densi t y of 70% and
above
Moderat el y Dense
Forest
All l ands wi th t ree cover of canopy densi t y bet ween 40 %
and 70 % above
Open Forest
All l ands wi th t ree cover of canopy densi t y bet ween 10 –
40 %.
Scrub
All forest l ands wi t h poor t ree growt h mai nl y of small or
st unt ed t r ees havi ng canopy densi t y l ess t han 10 percent .
Non-forest Any area not i ncluded i n t he above cl asses.
3- 156
3.2 .2.3 Congo basin – example of a sampling approach
Anal yses of changes in forest cover at nat i onal scal es have been carri ed out by t he
resear ch communi t y. These st udi es have advanced met hodologi es for deforest at ion
moni tori ng and provi ded assessment s of def orest at i on out si de t he real m of nat i onal
government s. As one exampl e, a t est of t he syst emat i c sampli ng approach has been
carri ed out in Cent ral Afri ca t o deri ve ar ea est i mat es of forest cover change bet ween
1990 and 2000. The proposed syst emat i c sampli ng approach using mid- resol ution
i magery ( Landsat ) was oper at i onal l y appli ed t o t he ent i re Congo Ri ver basi n t o
accur at el y est i mat e deforest at ion at regional l evel and, for l arge- si ze count ri es, at
nat i onal l evel . The survey was composed of 10 × 10 km2 sampli ng si t es syst emat i call y
di st ri but ed ever y 0.5° over t he whol e forest domai n of Cent ral Afri ca, corresponding t o a
sampl ing rat e of 3.3 % of t ot al area. For each of t he 571 si t es, subset s wer e ext r act ed
from bot h Landsat TM and ETM+ i magery acquired i n 1990 and 2000 respect i vel y. The
sat elli t e i magery was anal yzed wi t h obj ect - based ( mul ti - dat e segment at i on)
unsupervi sed cl assi fi cat i on t echni ques.
Around 60% of t he 390 cl oud-free i mages do not show any forest cover change. For t he
ot her 165 si t es, t he resul t s are r epresent ed by a change mat ri x for ever y sampl e si t e
descri bing four regrouped l and cover change pr ocesses, e.g. deforest at i on, reforest at i on,
forest degr adat i on and forest r ecover y ( t he sampl es in whi ch change i n forest cover i s
observed are cl assi fi ed int o 10 l and cover cl asses, i .e. “ dense forest ” , “ degr aded forest ” ,
“ long fal low & secondary forest ” , “ forest / agri cul ture mosai c” , “ agri cul ture & short fal low” ,
“ bar e soil & urban area” , “ non forest veget at ion” , “ forest - savannah mosai c” , “ wat er
bodi es” and “ no dat a” ) . “ Degr aded forest ” were defined spect r all y from t he i mager y
(li ght er t ones i n i mage color composi t es as compar ed t o dense forest s – see next
pi ct ure) .
For a r egi on l i ke Cent ral Afri ca (wi t h 180 Million ha) , using 390 sampl es, correspondi ng
t o a sampling rat e of 3.3 %, t hi s exerci se est i mat es t he annual deforest at i on rat e at
0. 21 ± 0.05 % for t he period 1990-2000. For t he Democr at i c Republ i c of Congo whi ch i s
cover ed by a l arge- enough number of sampl es ( 267) , t he est i mat ed annual deforest at i on
rat e was 0.25 ± 0. 06%. Degradat ion rat es were al so est i mat ed ( annual rat e: 0.15 ±
0. 03 % for t he enti re basi n) .
The accuracy of t he i mage int erpret at ion was eval uat ed from t he 25 qual it y cont rol
sampl e si t es. For t he forest / non-forest di scri minat i on t he accur acy i s est i mat ed at 93 %
( n = 100) and at 72 % for t he 10 l and cover cl asses mappi ng ( n = 120) . The overall
accur acy of t he 2 r egrouped change cl asses, deforest at i on and reforest at i on, i s
est i mat ed at 91 %. The exer ci se i llust rat es al so t hat t he st at i st i cal preci sion depends on
t he sampl i ng int ensi t y.

3- 157
Box 3. 2.2. Example of result s of int erpretat ion for a sample in Congo Basin
Landsat i mage ( TM sensor) year 1990 Landsat i mage ( ETM sensor) year 2000

Box size: 10 km x 10 km Box size: 10 km x 10 km

I mage int erpret at ion of year 1990 I mage int erpret at ion of year 2000

Legend: green = Dense forest , l i ght green = degraded forest , yell ow =
f orest / agri cul ture mosai c, orange = agri cult ure & fall ow.

3.2 .2.4 Cameroon – a wall- t o- wall approach
A REDD+ pil ot proj ect was conduct ed i n Cameroon under t he auspi ces of t he
Commi ssion des Forêt s d' Afri que Cent ral e - Cent ral Afri can Forest ry Commi ssion-
( COMI FAC) . Thi s pilot proj ect ai med at developi ng a fr amework for est abli shi ng hi st ori cal
refer ences of emi ssi ons caused by deforest at i on, usi ng Eart h Observat ion for mapping
deforest at i on combi ned wi t h regional est i mat es of degradat i on nest ed i n t he wal l- t o- wall
approach.
Met hods wer e devel oped and t est ed in t he t r ansi ti on zone bet ween t ropi cal evergreen
forest and savannah i n Cameroon
69
. Mul ti - t emporal opti cal mi d- resol ution dat a ( Landsat
from year s 1990 and 2000; DMC from year 2005) was used for t he forest mappi ng i n t he
full count ry. The met hod i nvol ves a seri es of t hree mai n processi ng st eps: ( 1) cl oud
maski ng, geomet ri c and radi omet ri c adj ust ment , t opographi c normali zat ion; (2) forest
maski ng employi ng a hybri d approach i ncluding aut omat i c mul ti - t emporal segment at i on,
cl assi fi cat ion and manual correct i on and (3) l and cover cl assi fi cat ion of t he deforest ed
areas based on spect r al si gnat ure anal ysi s.


69
Hirschmugl M, Häusler T, Schardt M, Gomez S, Armat he JA ( 2008) REDD+ pilot proj ect in
Cameroon - Met hod development and f irst result s. EaRSeL Conf erence 2008 Proceedings.
3- 158
A t wo-t i er remot e sensi ng anal ysi s provi des forest ar ea maps and forest cover change
maps ( 1990- 2000- 2005) f or t he whol e count ry. Landsat TM and ETM scenes as wel l as
DMC scenes were employed. A comprehensi ve I PCC compli ant biomass i nvent ory
provi des carbon st ock in int act f orest , li kewi se carbon st ock ext r act ed and damaged
during expl oit at i on. The main product s are: ( i ) Forest cover map 1990, 2000, 2005 and
(ii ) I PCC compli ant forest cover change map 1990- 2000, 2000- 2005. Resul t s ar e
illust rat ed i n Annex 2 ( p 17- 18) of GSE- FM Fi nal Report 2003-2009 avai l abl e at
ht t p: / / ww. gmes- forest .i nfo/
3. 2. 3 Key references for Sect ion 3.2
Duveill er G, Defourny P, Descl ée B, Mayaux P ( 2008) Def orest at i on in Cent ral Afri ca:
est i mat es at r egi onal , nat ional and l andscape l evel s by advanced processi ng of
syst emat i call y- di st ri but ed Landsat ext r act s. Remot e Sensing of Environment 112:
1969–1981
FSI ( 2009) I ndi a St at e of Forest Report 2009. Forest Survey of I ndi a, Dehra Dun. 199 p.
Avail abl e at ht t p: / / www.f si . ni c.in/
I NPE ( 2008) Monit ori ng of t he Forest Cover of Amazoni a from Sat ell it es: proj ect s
PRODES, DETER, DEGRAD and QUEI MADAS 2007-2008. Mi ni st ro de Est ado da
Ci ênci a e Tecnologi a - I nst i t ut o Naci onal de Pesqui sas Espaci ai s ( I NPE), São Jose dos
Campos, Brasil . 48 p. Avail abl e at ht t p: / / www.obt . inpe.br/ prodes/
I NPE ( 2010) Moni torament o da Fl orest a Amazôni ca Brasil ei ra por Sat eli t e, Proj et o
PRODES. I nst i t ut o de Pesqui sas Espaci ai s, São Jose dos Campos, Brasil .
ht t p: / / www.obt .inpe.br/ prodes/ i ndex.ht ml

3.3 FROM NATI ONAL FOREST I NVENTORY TO NATI ONAL
FOREST GHG I NVENTORI ES
Ben de Jong, El Col egio de l a Front era Sur, Mexi co
Devendra Pandey, Formerl y of Forest Survey of I ndi a, I ndi a
Fr édéri c Achard, Joint Resear ch Cent re, I t al y
3. 3. 1 Scope of chapter
Chapt er 3.3 present s t wo nat ional case st udies for forest inventories in t ropical
count ries: the I ndian and Mexican nat ional forest invent ories. These nat ional
forest invent ories have been use t o report GHG invent ories t o t he UNFCC
I ndi a has a l ong experi ence of conducting forest i nvent ori es at di vi sional / di st ri ct l evel
for est i mat ing growing st ock of harvest abl e t imber. Wi t h a vi ew t o generat e a nat i onal
l evel est i mat e of growing st ock i n a short ti me and coinci dent wi t h t he bi enni al forest
cover assessment based on sat ell i t e i mager y, a new Nat ional Forest I nvent ory ( NFI ) was
desi gned i n 2001 and has been used oper at i onall y up to t he l at est nat i onal forest
invent ory report ( FSI , 2009) . The resul t s of t he past I ndi an nat ional forest i nvent ory
were used i n t he I ni ti al Nat ional Communi cat ion t o t he UNFCCC produced in 2004. The
Second Nat ional Communi cat ion bei ng finali zed now has used resul t s of t he new NFI and
t he suppl ement ar y i nvent ory compl et ed duri ng 2008-2009 t o est i mat e mi ssing
component s of forest bi omass. These t wo resul ts have been i nt egrat ed wi t h spat i al dat a
on f orest cover moni t oring to est i mat e t he nat i onal green house gas emi ssions from
forest ry sect or.
3- 159
The Mexi can i nvent ory of greenhouse gas ( GHG) emi ssi ons from t he l and-use sect or
invol ved int egrat i on of forest i nvent ory, l and- use and soil dat a i n a GI S t o est i mat e t he
net f lux of GHG bet ween 1993 and 2002. I n t he l ast decade, Mexi co has gat hered
nat i onal informat i on incl udi ng syst emat i cal l y col l ect ed spat i al l y expli ci t dat a t hat all ow
for a more reli abl e GHG i nvent ory ( de Jong et al . , 2010) . Addi ti onall y, a nat i onal
dat abase of wood densi ti es and al lomet ri c equat i ons t o convert invent ory dat a t o
bi omass and vol ume has been generat ed. The resul t s have been used i n t he nat i onal
GHG i nvent ory of Mexi co where nat i onal emi ssi ons were r eport ed up t o t he year 2002, at
TI ER 2 in t he t hird communi cat ion, and up t o 2006 (bet ween Ti er 2 and 3) in t he fourth
communi cat i on ( I NE-SEMARNAT, 2006, 2009) .
3. 3. 2 I nt roduct ion on forest invent ories i n t r opical count ri es
Tradi tional l y, forest i nvent ori es i n sever al count ri es have been done t o obt ai n a reli abl e
est i mat e of t he forest ar ea and growing st ock of wood for overall yi el d regul at ion
purpose. The i nformat i on was used t o prepare t he management pl ans for ut ili zat ion and
devel opment of t he forest resource and al so t o formul at e t he forest pol i ci es. The f orest
invent ory provi des dat a of t he growing st ock of wood by di amet er cl ass, number of t he
t ree as well as t he composi ti on of speci es. Repeat ed measurement of permanent sampl e
pl ot s al so provi des t he changes in t he forest growing st ock/ bi omass.
A number of sampling designs have been used t o conduct t he i nvent ory, t he most
common of whi ch are syst emat i c sampli ng, st rat i fi ed random sampli ng, and cl ust er
sampl ing. The sampli ng desi gns, si ze and shape of t he sampl e pl ot s and t he accuracy
l evel s have depended on t he si t uat i on of t he forest r esource, avail abl e t i me frame,
budget all ocat i on and avail abl e ski ll ed human resource.
I n t he devel opi ng regi on of t he worl d several count ri es undert ook one t i me invent ory of
t hei r forest s, usuall y at t he sub- nat i onal l evel and some at t he nat i onal l evel in a proj ect
mode in t he past such as Myanmar
70
, Mal aysi a, I ndonesi a, Bangl adesh, Sri Lanka et c.
There ar e, however, a f ew count ri es li ke I ndi a and Chi na whi ch are conducti ng the
nat i onal forest i nvent ory on a regul ar basi s and have wel l est abli shed nat ional insti t ution
for t he same.
Tradit ional Forest inventories in I ndia
I ndi a has a long experi ence of conducti ng forest i nvent ory at di vi si onal / di st ri ct l evel
whi ch has forest ar ea of about 1, 000 km
2
, mainl y for est i mat i ng growi ng st ock of
harvest abl e t i mber needed for prepar at i on of operat i onal pl an ( Worki ng Pl an) of t he
area. The first working pl an of a di vi sion was prepared i n t he 1860s and t hen graduall y
ext ended t o ot her forest ar eas. The met hodology for preparat i on was ref i ned and quali t y
i mproved wi t h avail abil it y bet t er maps and dat a. These i nvent ori es followed hi gh
int ensi t y of sampli ng ( at l east 10%) but covered onl y a li mi t ed forest area ( about 10 t o
15%) of a di vi sion supporti ng mat uring crop where harvest i ng was t o be done during t he
pl an peri od of 10 t o 15 years ( Pandey, 2008) .
The pract i ce of preparing Working Pl an for operat i onal purposes cont inues even t oday by
t he provinci al government s but t he scal e of cut t i ng of t rees has been great l y reduced
due t o increasi ng emphasi s on forest conser vat i on. Wi t h t he avail abil it y of modern
invent ory t ool s and met hods, a begi nni ng has been made i n a few provinces t o invent ory
t he t ot al forest ar ea of t he di vi si on wi th low int ensi t y of sampling mai nl y t o assess t he
exi st i ng growi ng st ock for sust ai nabl e forest management (SFM) and not onl y for
harvest i ng of ti mber.


70
Shut t er H ( 1984) Nat ional Forest Survey and I nvent ory of Burma ( unpublished) , input at 2nd
Training Course in Forest I nvent ory, Dehradun, I ndia
3- 160
I n t he I ndi an Federal set up, al most all t he forest s of t he count ry are owned and
managed by provinci al government s. The Feder al Government i s mai nl y responsi bl e for
formul ati ng pol i ci es, st r at egi c pl anni ng, enact l aws and provi de part i al fi nanci al support
t o provinces. Usi ng the invent ory dat a of t he worki ng pl ans i t has not been possi bl e t o
est i mat e growi ng st ock of wood and ot her paramet er s of t he f orest resource at t he
provi nce or nat ional l evel .
3. 3. 3 I ndian nat ional forest invent ory ( NFI )
3.3 .3.1 Large scale forest invent ories: 1965 t o 2000
A rel at i vel y l arge scal e comprehensi ve forest invent ory was st ar t ed by t he Federal
Government wi t h the support of FAO/ UNDP i n 1965 usi ng st at i st i call y robust approach
and aeri al phot ographs under a proj ect named as Pre- I nvest ment Survey of Forest
Resources ( PI S). The i nvent ory ai med f or st rat egi c pl anning wi th a focus on assessi ng
wood resource i n l ess expl ored forest s of t he count ry for est abli shi ng wood based
indust ri es wi t h a l ow int ensi t y sampli ng (0. 01%). The PI S invent ory was not l inked t o
Worki ng Pl an prepar at i on nor was i t s dat a used t o suppl ement local l evel invent ory. The
set up of PI S was subsequent l y re- organi zed i nt o nat i onal forest moni toring syst em and
a nat i onal inst i t ution known as Forest Survey of I ndi a ( FSI ) was creat ed in 1981 wi t h
basi c ai m t o generat e cont inuous and reli abl e informat i on on t he forest r esource of t he
count ry. During PI S period about 22.8 mi lli on ha of count ry’s f orest s were i nvent ori ed
( FSI 1996a) . Aft er t he cr eat i on of t he FSI , t he fi el d invent ory cont inued wi t h t he same
st r engt h and pace as t he PI S but t he desi gn was modi fi ed. The t ot al ar ea i nvent ori ed
until t he year 2000 was about 69.2 mil lion ha, whi ch i ncludes some areas whi ch wer e
invent ori ed t wi ce. Thus more t han 80% forest ar ea of t he count ry was i nvent ori ed
comprehensi vel y duri ng a period of 35 years. Syst emat i c sampling has been t he basi c
desi gn under whi ch forest area was di vi ded i nt o gri ds of equal si ze (2½´ mi nut e
longi tude by 2½´ mi nut e l at i tude) on t opographi c sheet s and t wo sampl e plot s were l ai d
in each gri d. The int ensi t y of sampli ng fol lowed in t he invent ory has been generall y
0. 01% and sampl e plot si ze 0.1 ha
3.3 .3.2 Nat ional forest invent ories from year 20 01
Wi th a vi ew t o gener at e a nat i onal l evel est i mat e of growing st ock i n a short t i me and
coi nci dent wi th t he bi enni al forest cover assessment based on sat ell i t e i mager y, a new
Nat ional Forest I nvent ory ( NFI ) was desi gned i n 2001. Under t hi s program, t he count ry
has been di vi ded i nto 14 physiographi c zones based on physi ographi c feat ures i ncl uding
cli mat e, soi l and veget at i on. The met hod invol ved sampling 10 percent of t he about 600
ci vil di st ri ct s repr esent i ng t he 14 different zones in proportion t o t hei r si ze. About 60
di st ri ct s were sel ect ed t o be i nvent ori ed in t wo year s period. The first est i mat e of t he
growing st ock was gener at ed at t he zonal and nat i onal l evel based on t he invent ory of
60 di st ri ct s cover ed i n t he fi rst cycl e. These est i mat es ar e t o be furt her i mproved i n t he
second and subsequent cycl es as t he dat a of fi rst cycl e will be combined wi t h second and
subsequent cycl es. The random sel ect ion of t he di st ri ct s i s wi t hout repl acement ; hence
each ti me new di st ri ct s are sel ect ed ( FSI 2008) .
3.3 .3.3 Field invent ory
I n t he sel ect ed di st ri ct s, all t hose areas i ndi cat ed as Reser ved Forest s, Prot ect ed forest s,
t hi ck j ungl e, t hi ck forest et c, and any ot her ar ea report ed t o be a f orest area by t he local
Di vi sional Forest Offi cers ( gener all y un- cl assed forest s) are t r eat ed as forest . For each
sel ect ed di st ri ct , Survey of I ndi a t opographi c sheet s of 1: 50,000 scal e are di vi ded int o
36 gri ds of 2½ ´ ( minut e l ongi t ude) by 2½´ ( mi nut e l at i t ude) . Furt her, each gri d i s
di vi ded i nto 4 sub- gri ds of 1¼´ by 1¼´ formi ng t he basi c sampl ing frame. Two of t hese
sub-gri ds ar e t hen randoml y sel ect ed for est abli shi ng sampl e plot s from one end of t he
sheet and t hen syst emat i c sampl ing i s followed for sel ect i ng ot her sub- gri ds. The
int ersect i on of di agonal s of such sub- grids i s marked as t he cent er of t he pl ot at whi ch a
3- 161
squar e sampl e plot of 0.1 ha ar ea i s l ai d out t o conduct fi el d i nvent ory ( Fi gures 3.3.1
and 3.3.2) .

Figure 3 .3.1. Sel ect ed di st ri ct s under nat ional forest invent ory.





3- 162
Figure 3.3. 2. Forest i nvent ory poi nt s in one of t he di st ri ct s.


Di amet er at breast hei ght ( 1.37 m) of al l t he t rees above 10 cm ( DBH) i n t he sampl e
pl ot and hei ght as well as crown di amet er of t rees st anding in onl y one quart er of t he
sampl e plot are measured. I n addi t ion l egal st at us, l and use, forest st r at um, t opography,
crop composi tion, bamboo, regener at i on, bi oti c pressure, speci es name fal ling in f orest
area are al so recorded. Two sub plot s of 1 m2 are l aid out at t he opposi t e corners of t he
sampl e plot t o coll ect sampl e for lit t er/ humus and soil carbon ( from a pi t of 30 cm x 30
cm x 30cm) . Furt her, nest ed quadr at es of 3 m x 3 m and 1mx1 m are l ai d at 30 m
di st ance from t he cent er of t he plot in al l t he four corners for enumerat i on of shrubs and
herbs t o assess t he bi odi versi t y ( FSI draft 2008).
I n t wo years about 7,000 sampl e plot s representi ng dif ferent physi ographi c zones i n t he
60 sel ect ed di st ri ct s ar e l ai d and invent ori ed. The fi el d operat ions of NFI ar e execut ed
by t he four zonal offi ces of t he FSI locat ed i n di fferent par t s of t he count ry. About 20
fi el d part i es ( one fi el d part y compri se of one t echni ci an as l eader, t wo skill ed workers
and t wo unskill ed workers) carry out i nvent ory i n the fi el d at l east for ei ght mont hs in a
year. During t he four rai ny mont hs t he fi el d part i es carr y out dat a checking and dat a
ent ry in t he comput ers at t he zonal headquart ers. The dat a i s t hen sent t o t he FSI
headquar t ers for furt her checki ng and processing. Aft er manual checking of the sampl e
dat a i n a random way, i nconsi st ency check i s carri ed out t hrough a soft ware and t hen
dat a i s processed t o est i mat e various par amet ers of forest resource under t he
supervi sion of seni or professional s.
For est i mat i ng t he vol ume of st andi ng t rees FSI has developed vol ume equat ions for
sever al hundred t ree speci es growi ng in dif ferent regions of t he count ry (FSI , 1996b) .
These equat ions are used t o est i mat e t he wood volume of the sampl e plot s. Si nce
equat ions have been devel oped on the vol ume of t rees measured above 10 cm di amet er
at breast hei ght ( dbh) t rees bel ow 10 cm dbh ar e not measured and t hei r volume not
est i mat ed. Furt her for t he t rees above 10 cm dbh t he volume of mai n st em bel ow 10 cm
TWO SAMPLE PLOTS
ARE SELECTED BY TAKING
CENTER OF 1¼’X 1¼’ GRID

2½’



5’ 5’
5’ 5’
2½’
2½’
2½’ 1¼



3- 163
and branches bel ow 5 cm di amet er are al so not measured. Thus t he exi st ing vol ume
equat ions underest i mat e t he biomass of t rees speci es. The above ground biomass of
ot her li ving pl ant s ( herbs and shrubs) i s al so not measured.
3.3 .3.4 I nvent ory for missing component s of t he forest biomass
As ment i oned i n t he previ ous sect ion t he current nat ional forest i nvent ory ( NFI ) do not
measure t he t ot al biomass of t he t rees, besi des not measuring t he biomass of herbs and
shrubs, deadwood. Therefore, a separat e nat i on wi de exerci se was undert aken by FSI
since August 2008 ( FSI draft 2008) t o est i mat e t he biomass of mi ssi ng component s. I n
t hi s exerci se t here are t wo component s and both i nvol ve dest ruct i ve sampli ng.
One component was t he measurement s on i ndi vi dual t rees for est i mat i ng vol ume of
t rees bel ow 10 cm t o 0 cm di amet er at breast hei ght ( dbh) and volume of branch below
5 cm and st em wood below 10 cm for t rees above 10 cm dbh. Onl y about 20 i mport ant
t ree speci es i n each physi ographi c zone ar e cover ed i n t hi s exerci se. I n all about 100
t ree speci es has been cover ed at t he nat i on l evel . The t rees and t hei r branches wer e cut
and wei ghed in a speci fi ed manner t o measure t he bi omass. New bi omass equat i ons
were devel oped for t he t r ees speci es below 10 cm dbh. For t he t rees above 10 cm dbh
t he addi ti onal biomass measured t hrough t hi s exerci se wer e added t o t he bi omass of
t ree speci es of corresponding dbh whose volume and biomass has al ready been
est i mat ed duri ng NFI . Thi s gave t he t ot al biomass of t he t rees st art i ng o cm di amet er.
I n t he second component sampl e plot s were l aid out for measuri ng vol ume of deadwood,
herb shrub and cli mbers and li t t er. Because of t he li mi t ati on of t he t i me onl y mini mum
number of sampl es pl ot s has been deci ded. I n all onl y 14 di st ri ct s i n t he count ry, t hat i s,
one di st ri ct from each physiographi c zone. While sel ect ing di st ri ct s ( al ready i nvent ori ed
under NFI ) due car e has been t aken so t hat all maj or forest t ypes ( speci es) and canopy
densi ti es ar e properl y repr esent ed. About 100 sampl e point s wer e l ai d in each di st ri ct .
At nat i onal scal e t her e wer e about 1400 sampl e poi nt s. The geo- coordinat es of sel ect ed
sampl e point s in each di st ri ct were sent t o fi el d part i es for carryi ng out the fi el d work. I n
a st r at um based on t ype and densi t y about 15 sampl e plot s wer e sel ect ed whi ch gave a
permi ssi bl e error of 30%. At each sampl e pl ot t hree concent ri c plot s of si zes 5mx5m for
dead wood, 3mx3m for shrubs, cli mbers & l i t ter and 1mx1m for herbs wer e l ai d ( FSI -
draft 2008) . The deadwood col l ect ed from t he sampl e pl ot s were wei ghed i n the fi el d
i t self. Green wei ght of t he shrubs, cli mbers and herbs cut from t he ground was al so
t aken whi ch were l at er convert ed i nt o dry weight by usi ng sui t abl e conver sion fact ors.
Thi s exerci se gave t he bi omass of t he deadwood and l it t er as well as biomass of t he
ot her non–t ree veget at i on excl uded during NFI .
3.3 .3.5 Nat ional green house gas invent ory from forest ry land- use
The NFI when combined wi t h suppl ement ar y i nvent ory gave t he t ot al living biomass
above t he ground and t he bi omass of t he deadwood and li t t er. Anal ysi s of t he soil
sampl es coll ect ed duri ng NFI gave t he soi l organi c carbon in different forest t ypes and
densi ti es. For bel ow ground biomass of t he root syst em generall y defaul t val ues of t he
I PCC were used except for few speci es for whi ch st udi es have been conduct ed i n I ndi a in
t he past by forest ry research i nst i t uti ons t o est imat e t he root bi omass. By usi ng sui t abl e
conversi on fact ors carbon in each component and t hen forest carbon st ock on per uni t
area for each forest t ype and densi t y was est i mat ed. Compari son of t wo ti me spat i al
dat a of forest cover by t ype and densi t y gave t he forest l and-use change mat ri x.
I nt egr at i ng t he change mat ri x wi t h values of carbon st ock per uni t area of forest s gave
t he GHG emi ssi ons and removal s ( MoEF 2010) .
3.3 .3.6 Est imat ion of cost s
The t ot al number of t emporary sampl e plot s l ai d out in t he forest s of 60 di st ri ct s i s about
8, 000 where measurement s ar e compl et ed in t wo years. The fi el d invent ory and t he dat a
ent ry are conduct ed by t he zonal offi ces of the Forest Survey of I ndi a locat ed in four
3- 164
di fferent zones of t he count ry. The dat a checking and i t s processing are carri ed out in
FSI headquart ers ( Dehradun) . The est i mat ed cost of i nvent ory per sampl e pl ot comes t o
about US$ 158.00 incl udi ng t ravel t o sampl e pl ot , fi el d measurement i ncluding checki ng
by supervi sors and t he rest on fi el d prepar at ion, equi pment , desi gni ng, dat a ent ry,
processi ng et c.
The addi tional cost for est i mat i ng t he mi ssi ng component s of biomass has been worked
out t o be about 52 US$ per plot . Thi s cost woul d be great l y reduced i f t he exerci se of
addi tional measurement s i s combined wi t h regul ar act i vi ti es of NFI . Moreover t he
bi omass equat ions devel oped for t rees bel ow 10 cm dbh and t hat of above 10 cm i s one
t i me exer ci se. There wi ll be no cast on t hi s in fut ure i nvent ory.
3. 3. 4 GHG emissions in Mexico f rom l and- use change and forest ry
3.3 .4.1 I nt roduct ion
I n t hi s sect i on we present t he Mexi can i nvent ory of greenhouse gas ( GHG) emi ssi ons
from t he l and-use sect or. I t i nvol ved i nt egrat ion of forest i nvent ory, l and- use and soil
dat a i n a GI S t o est i mat e t he net fl ux of GHG bet ween 1993 and 2002 appl ying t he I PCC
1996 guidelines and bet ween 1990 and 2006, appl yi ng t he 2006 guidelines.
I n t he l ast t wo decades, Mexi co has had t wo nat ional forest i nvent ori es, one est abl i shing
about 16,000 plot s of 1000 m2 bet ween 1992 and 1994, i n whi ch all above- ground li ving
bi omass pool s were measured or est i mat ed. Dead st anding t rees and t ree st umps wer e
incl uded, but no dat a were col l ect ed on fall en dead wood or soil organi c mat t er. I n 2004,
a new forest i nvent ory was i ni ti at ed, est abl i shing a net work of about 25,000 permanent
sampl ing poi nt s, each compri si ng of four 400 m2 plot s each ( 1,600 m2 i n each pint ) .
Bet ween 2004 and 2008 more t han 22,000 point s wer e measured, wi t h si mil ar dat a
col l ect i ng procedures as t he 1992- 1994 invent ori es. Re-measurement of t he 20% of t he
point s each year st ar t ed i n 2009 and from t hi s year onward all carbon pool s are
syst emat i call y measured in each poi nt , according t o I PCC st andards. Soil sampl es ar e
col l ect ed up t o 30 cm and dead f al l en wood i s measured appl yi ng t he li ne-t ransect
sampl ing procedure. I n 2009, about 4,700 were revi si t ed and in 2010 a si mi l ar number.
The dat a f rom bot h i nvent ori es have been used t o est i mat e t he GHG gas emi ssi ons in
t he l and-use sect or. The 1992-1994 dat a wer e used i n t he t hird communi cat i ons ( See De
Jong et al 2010) . The proj ect i nvol ved a comprehensi ve effort t o cal cul at e changes i n
l and-use by i nt egrat i ng l and-use maps of 1993 and 2002 and carbon st ocks deri ved from
t he forest invent ory and separat e soil carbon dat a, and combi ning t hese spat i all y expli ci t
dat a wi t h emi ssion fact ors deri ved from nat i onal government al and speci al i zed li t erat ure
sources t o est i mat e t he net fl ux of GHG. The proj ect al so ai med at i dent i fyi ng and
quant ifyi ng the sources of uncert ai nt y t o gi ve di rect i on for ongoi ng and future dat a
col l ect i ng act i vi ti es.
The resul t s ser ved as a basi s t o defi ne what addi tional i nformat i on i s requi red i n order
for Mexi co t o ent er in i nt ernat ional forest ry based mi t i gati on effort s, such as t he
emergi ng REDD+ mechani sm. The proj ect was part of t he nat i onal GHG invent ory of
Mexi co where nat ional emi ssi ons wer e r eport ed up t o t he year 2002 ( I NE- SEMARNAT,
2009).
3.3 .4.2 Nat ional Forest I nventory
Nat ional f orest i nvent ory dat a ar e avai l abl e from 1992-1994, compri si ng about 16,000
si t es of 1000 m
2
est abl i shed i n congl omerat es of up t o 3 si t es ( Fi gure 3.3.3a). A
syst emat i c approach was used t o di st ri but e t he conglomerat es. Dat a coll ect ed i n each
si t e i ncluded indi vi dual t ree di amet er (DBH = 1.30 m) , t ot al and mer chant abl e hei ght
and speci es of all t rees > 10 cm DBH, cover of shrub and herbaceous veget at i on and
count s of nat ural regenerat i on of t rees ( SARH, 1994) .
3- 165
I n 2004 a newl y desi gned Nat i onal Forest I nvent ory was devel oped and bet ween 2004
and 2007, about 25,000 geo- refer enced permanent poi nt s wer e est abli shed of whi ch
about 22,000 point s were measured ( Fi gure 3.3.3b) ; each poi nt s has 4 si t es of 400 m
2

each, wi th a t ot al of 1,600 m
2
per poi nt ( Fi gure 3.3.4) . From 2008 onward each year
about 20% of t he poi nt s will be re- measured ( Fi gure 3. 3.5); about 50 percent of all
point s were re- measured i n 2008, 2009 and 2010. As of 2009, all mayor C- pool s are
incl uded in t he re- measurement s, incl uding fall en dead wood, li t t er, and soi l organi c
mat t er. A t ot al of 1’300,000 t rees wer e measured during 2004-2007. As of 2009, all
t rees ar e indi vi duall y l abel ed.
A dat abase was generat ed of publi shed allomet r i c equat ions t o convert invent ory dat a t o
bi omass and volume, Equat i ons were devel oped at t he l evel of speci es, genera, groups
of speci es wi t h si mil ar archi t ect ure, and ecosyst ems, covering more t han 90% of all t ree
indi vidual s t hat wer e measured bet ween 2004 and 2007. For t he remai ning t rees,
generi c equat i ons were cr eat ed. Vol ume equat ions and wood densi t y dat a have been
used t o cr eat e Bi omass Expansi on Fact ors. These fact ors are used t o convert report ed
harvest i ng volumes t o t ot al biomass. As part of t he reporti ng requi rement s for t he 2010
Forest Resource Assessment , coordinat ed by t he FAO, a 2007 bi omass densi t y map was
gener at ed, based on a preli minary 2007 l and use and l and cover map ( I NEGI , unpubl)
and t he 2004- 2008 invent ory dat a ( Fi gure 3.3.6) .

3- 166
Figure 3.3.3 a. Di st ri bution of t he pl ot s i n Mexi co of t he 1992- 1994 Forest I nvent ory
( approx. 6,500 plot s, 16,000 si t es) accordi ng t o preci pi t at ion cl asses.


Figure 3.3 .3b. Di st ri buti on of t he invent ory plot s i n Mexi co of the 2004- 2008 Nat i onal
Forest and Soil I nvent ory ( approx. 25,000 plot s; 84,000 si t es.) and re- measured pl ot s in
2009.

Legend
Per manent pl ot s
Re- measur ed pl ot s i n 2009
St at e boundari es


3- 167
Figure 3 .3.4. I nvent ory plot desi gn wi th four 400 m2 si t es i n each pl ot . Tot al ci rcl e
encompasses 1 ha.



Figure 3 .3.5. Each year 20% of permanent plot s ar e resampl ed syst emat i call y.






3- 168
Figure 3 .3.6. Biomass densi t y map ( i n T dry mat t er) for 2007, deri ved from I NEGI
veget at i on map (2007) and I NFyS 2004-2008 plot dat a.

Non-forest


3.3 .4.3 Sources of uncert aint y
Mai n sources of uncert ai nt y i nclude l ack of i ntegr at ed soil and bi omass dat a and t he
i mpact of t he vari ous management pract i ces on biomass. Key f act ors ar e i denti fi ed t o
i mprove GHG i nvent ori es and t o reduce uncert ai nt y.
3.3 .4.4 Report ing to t he UNFCCC
I n t hi s sect i on we present t he Mexi can i nvent ory of greenhouse gas ( GHG) emi ssi ons
from t he l and-use sect or. I t i nvol ved i nt egrat ion of forest i nvent ory, l and- use and soil
dat a i n a GI S t o est i mat e t he net flux of GHG bet ween 1993 and 2002.
I n Mexi co, t he LULUCF sect or was consi dered t he second source of GHG emi ssi ons aft er
fossil fuel consumpti on, wi t h a t ot al of 112 TgCO
2
y
−1
( I NE- SEMARNAT, 2001) . However ,
t hi s est i mat e was based on defaul t and proj ect - based dat a from t he l i t erat ure. Based on
t he 1992-1994 i nvent ory dat a, defaul t expansion fact ors, nat i onal l and use and l and
cover maps of 1993 and 2002 and forest ry st at i st i cs, GHG emi ssi ons have been
est i mat ed for t he LULUCF sect or i n Mexi co from 1993 t o 2002 and has been report ed up
t o t he year 2002 in the t hi rd nat ional communi cat i on to t he UNFCCC ( I NE- SEMARNAT,
2006).
The met hodology we used follows t he approach proposed by t he I PCC ( mai nl y I PCC,
1997; wi th mi nor adj ust ment s accordi ng to I PCC, 2003) . Thi s approach i s based on
assessing changes i n bi omass and soil carbon st ocks i n forest s and f orest - deri ved l and
uses due t o human act i vi t i es and reli es on t wo rel at ed pr emi ses: ( 1) t he flux of carbon
t o or from t he at mospher e i s assumed t o be equal t o changes i n carbon st ocks i n
exi st i ng biomass and mi neral soil s, and ( 2) changes i n carbon st ocks can be est i mat ed
3- 169
by est abl i shing rat es of change in area by l and-use and rel at ed changes in C st ocks, and
t he pract i ces used t o carry out t he changes. An updat e of t he nat i onal GHG invent ory
was devel oped for t he years 1990 t o 2006, publi shed i n t he fourt h nat i onal
communi cat i ons ( I NE- SEMARNAT 2009), t hat i s based on t he I PCC 2006 gui deli nes. Thi s
invent ory used t he Nat i onal Forest and Soil I nvent ory 2004-2008 dat a, nat i onall y
devel oped emi ssi on fact ors, nat i onal l and-use and l and cover maps of 1993, 2002 and
2007, and avail abl e nati onal st at i st i cs.
3. 3. 5 Key references for Sect ion 3.3
FSI ( 1996a) : I nvent ory of forest r esources of I ndi a, Forest Survey of I ndi a, Mi ni st ry of
Envi ronment and Forest s, Dehradun pp 268
FSI ( 1996b) : Volume equat ions for forest s of I ndi a, Nepal and Bhut an. Forest Survey of
I ndi a, Mi ni st ry of Envi ronment and Forest s, Dehradun pp 249
FSI ( 2009) I ndi a St at e of Forest Report 2009. Forest Survey of I ndi a ( Dehra Dun) . 199
p. Avail abl e at ht t p: / / www.fsi .ni c.in/
FSI ( 2008) Manual of Nat i onal Forest I nvent ory, Forest Survey of I ndi a, Mini st ry of
Envi ronment and Forest s, Dehradun
I ndi a ( 2004) I ndi a’s I ni ti al Nat i onal Communi cat i on t o t he UNFCCC. Mi ni st ry of
Envi ronment and Forest s, Government of I ndia. New Del hi , 266 pp. Avail abl e at
ht t p: / / unfccc.int / resource/ docs/ nat c/ i ndnc1.pdf.
De Jong B, Anaya C, Maser a O et al . ( 2010) Greenhouse gas emi ssi ons bet ween 1993
and 2002 from l and- use change and f orest ry i n Mexi co, Forest Ecol ogy and
Management 260: 1689–1701
I NE-SEMARNAT ( 2006) Méxi co Tercera Comuni cación Nat ional ant e l a Convención Marco
de l as Naci ones Uni das sobre el Cambi o Cli mát i co. Secret aría de Medi o Ambi ent e y
Recursos Nat ural es ( SEMARNAT) / I nst i tut o Nacional de Ecologi a (I NE) , Méxi co, D. F.
Méxi co. 208 pp. Avail abl e at www. cc2010.mx/ asset s/ 001/ 5139.pdf.
I NE-SEMARNAT (2009) Méxi co Cuart a Comuni cación Naci onal ant e l a Convenci ón Marco
de l as Naci ones Uni das sobre el Cambi o Cli mát i co. Secret aría de Medi o Ambi ent e y
Recursos Nat ural es ( SEMARNAT) / I nst i tut o Nacional de Ecologi a (I NE) , Méxi co, D.F.
Méxi co. 374 pp. Avail abl e at ht t p: / / unfccc.i nt / resource/ docs/ nat c/ mexnc4s.pdf.
MoEF 2010. Land use, Land use Change and Forest ry in I ndi a Greenhouse Gas Emi ssi ons
2007, I ndi an Net work f or Cli mat e Change Assessment , Mi ni st ry of Envi ronment and
Forest s, May 2010 p 28-37.
Pandey D ( 2008) I ndi a’s forest r esource base, I nt ernat i onal Forest r y Revi ew, Vol 10(2) ,
pp 116-124, Commonweal t h Forest ry Associ at i on, UK

3.4 COMMUNI TY FOREST MONI TORI NG
Pat ri ck Van Laake, I nt ernat ional I nst i t ut e for Geo- I nformat i on Sci ence and Eart h
Obser vat i on ( I TC) , The Net herl ands
Margaret Skut sch, Cent ro de I nvest i gaci ones en Geografía Ambi ent al , UNAM, Méxi co
Mi chael K. McCall , Cent ro de I nvest i gaci ones en Geografía Ambi ent al , UNAM, Méxi co

3- 170
3. 4. 1 Scope of chapter: rat ionale for communi t y based i nventories
Forest l and i n devel oping count ri es i s increasi ngl y bei ng brought under communi t y
management under programs such as Joi nt Forest Management , Communi t y Based
Forest Management , Col l aborat i ve Management , et c, more gener al l y cal l ed Communi t y
Forest Management ( CFM) . Thi s movement has been st i mul at ed by t he r ecogni tion in
many count ri es t hat t he Forest Depart ment ( FD) , whi ch i s nomi nall y responsi bl e for
management of st at e-owned forest , does not have t he r esources t o carry out t hi s t ask
effect i vel y. Rural peopl e, whose li vel ihoods ar e suppl ement ed by, or even dependent on,
a vari et y of forest product s such as fi rewood and fodder, foods and medi ci nes, have t he
pot ent i al knowl edge and human resources t o provi de effect i ve management capaci t y t o
t ake care of t he forest r esources when t he FD cannot . Whereas uncont roll ed over -
expl oi t at ion by out si ders, or t he communi ti es t hemsel ves, will l ead t o degradat i on and
loss of bi omass, CFM est abli shes formal syst ems bet ween communi ti es and FDs i n whi ch
communi t i es have t he ri ght t o cont roll ed amount s of forest product s from a gi ven parcel
of forest and i n ret urn agree t o prot ect t he forest and manage i t coll ect i vel y. Most l y
t hese par cel s are r el at i vel y small , from 25 t o 500 hect ares, bei ng managed by groups of
10 t o 50 househol ds. A number of count ri es have used CFM ver y effect i vel y t o rever se
deforest at i on and degr adat i on processes. I n Nepal , for exampl e, 25% of all forest l and i s
now more or l ess sust ai nabl y managed by so- call ed ‘Forest User Groups’. Si mil ar
processes of forest governance are found on a small er scal e i n many ot her devel oping
count ri es, e.g. Tanzani a, Cameroon, I ndi a and Mexi co to name a few exampl es.
Thi s chapt er present s how CFM groups and soci et i es can carry out forest i nvent ori es, i n
part i cul ar i f t here i s any prospect of payment for envi ronment al servi ces whi ch requi re
reli abl e, det ai l ed measurement s. Carbon servi ces under REDD+ are a pri me exampl e, i f
communi t i es ar e engaged i n forest i nvent ory work and rewarded for i mprovement s in
st ock wi t h benefi t s i n cash or kind. Moreover, if communi ti es measure t he carbon st ock
changes i n t he forest s t hey manage, t hey may est abli sh ‘ownershi p’ of any carbon
savi ngs, t o st r engt hen t hei r st ake i n t he REDD+ reward syst em and great l y increase
t ransparency in the sub- nat ional / int ra- nat i onal governance of REDD+ finances.
How t he i nvol vement of local communi ti es i n REDD+ wi ll be achi eved in indi vi dual
count ri es i s wi thi n t he purvi ew of t he nat ional government . Government philosophy, l and
ownershi p and t enure ri ght s, compet i ng cl ai ms on forest r esources ( e.g. commerci al
logging operat ions) all cont ri but e t o a vari et y of condi tions t hat i s unt enabl e for a si ngl e
sol ution. However, t he r equi rement s for l arge scal e dat a coll ect i on in t he fi el d call for t he
meani ngful invol vement of local communi ti es, i f onl y t o reduce t he cost of t he
invent ori es.
3- 171
Box 3. 4.1. Communit y Forest Management pract ice in Cameroon

I n spi t e of t he rol e of cent r al government and forest l egi sl at i on i n Cameroon i t
shoul d be not ed t hat soci al inst i tuti ons at communi t y l evel in forest areas ar e st ill
st rongl y root ed in ri ght s based on ki nshi p and descent . These ri ght s are of cent ral
rel evance t o t he underst andi ng of cont emporary i ssues of l and t enure, agri cul ture
and nat ural r esource management and event ual l y t he REDD+ process.
The st at e of Cameroon i s t he sol e propri et or and manager of all forest resources.
Never t hel ess, i n cert ai n inst ances an agr eement can be made bet ween t he st at e
and a communi t y or group of communi ti es all owing t hem t o manage t he forest at
t hei r vi ci ni t y for t heir own benefi t aft er t he el aborat i on and accept ance of a
management pl an by t he forest aut hori ti es. I t i s i mport ant t o not e t hat such a
management convent i on nei t her grant s t he communi t y propert y ri ght s for t he
domai n nor ownershi p right s for t he forest r esources. The ownershi p ri ght s bel ong
t o t he st at e and t he benefi t s of t he communi ty ar e defi ned i n t he management
pl an.
I n st ar k cont rast , l and ownershi p in t he t radi t ional l and t enure syst em i s based on
succession and inheri t ance ri ght s t hat are t i ed wi t h geneal ogi cal ri ght s. Even
t hough t hese t r adi ti onal l and t enure val ues are not covered by st at ut ory l aws,
i ndigenes of forest communi t i es adher e wi t h incredi bl e t enaci t y t o t hese “di vine”
ri ght s. I n order t o i nvol ve communi ti es in t he i mpl ement at i on of t he REDD+
process and t o guar ant ee t he sharing of benefi t s, i t i s of ut most i mport ance t o
addr ess t hi s i ssue. A funct ional syst em t o incl ude effect i ve communi t y based
part i ci pat ion i s one t hat recogni zes t he st at e as t he mai n offi ci ati ng organi zat ion for
all REDD+ act i vi t i es, whi ch i ncludes t he st at e’s r equi rement for communi t y
part i ci pat ion and t he st at e’ s obl i gat ion t o equi t abl y share revenues wi t h t he
communi ti es.

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Box 3. 4.2. Communit y Forest Management in Ghana
Until recent l y, l egi sl ati ve cont rol in Ghana over l and, part i cul arl y forest resources,
was l argel y vest ed i n t he st at e, whi l st cust odi al t i tl e t o t hese resources r emai ned i n
t he st ool s, ski n and fami li es who hol d the l and i n t rust for their respect i ve
communi ti es. I n recogni tion of t he rol e of local communi ti es i n sust ai nabl e
management of l and, the const i t ution of t he Republi c of Ghana has empower ed and
l egal i zed t he local communi ti es t hrough the Dist ri ct Assembli es in respect of t he
Local Government Act (Act 462) t o act i vel y court l ocal communi ti es, NGOs, ci vil
soci et y, et c. i n t he management and conser vat ion of bi odi versi t y. The process i s
bei ng act i vel y pursued t hrough t he Communi t y Resource Management Area
( CREMA) concept whi ch seeks progressi ve devol ution of power and management
f unct ions t o local communi ti es. Sever al proj ect s and act i vi ti es have been devel oped
t hat have rel evance t o communi t y i nvol vement in REDD:
• The GEF Small Grant s Programme i s supporti ng t he Wil dli fe Di vi sion of t he
Forest ry Commi ssi on t o i mpl ement t he CREMA concept by assi st ing l ocal
communi ti es, NGOs and ci vil soci et y, t o manage wil dli fe and ot her nat ural
resources i n t hei r own forest s. Thi s, in a way, i s di rect l y rel evant t o t he REDD+
process as i t wi ll ensure sust ained communi t y ownershi p of the f orest resources
whi ch ul ti mat el y will facil i t at e t he dat a coll ect ion mechani sms for REDD+ act i vi ti es.
The GEF/ SGP in Ghana has di st i ngui shed i t sel f in assi st ing local communi ti es t o
conserve biologi cal di versi t y of forest s out si de t he gazet t ed forest r eser ves, e.g. by
creat i ng buffer zones around sacred groves, rehabili t at i ng degraded areas t hrough
enri chment pl anti ng and nat ural regenerat i on. To dat e about 200,000 ha of
t radi ti onal l y prot ect ed communi t y forest s have been conserved and new
communi t y nat ural resource management ar eas are being creat ed and conser ved.
• The Geo-I nformat i on for Off -Reser ve Tree Management in Goaso Di st ri ct
( GORTMAN Proj ect ) was funded by Tropenbos I nt ernat i onal ( TBI ) as a coll aborat i ve
resear ch proj ect among t he Uni versi t y of Ghana, I TC ( Net herl ands) , Uni versi t y of
Fr ei burg ( Germany) , and t he Resource Management and Support Cent re of t he
Forest ry Commi ssi on of Ghana ( RSMC) . Thi s proj ect buil t capaci t y i n t he Forest ry
Commi ssion t o manage l arge- scal e dat a coll ect i on in basi c forest propert i es by
l ocal communi ti es, and t o devel op al t ernat i ves for t ree fel ling i n l ands under cont rol
of the l ocal chi efs.
• The GEF- Funded Proj ect “ Sust ai nabl e Land Management for Mi tigat ing Land
Degradat i on, Enhancing Agri cul tural Biodi versi ty and Reduci ng Povert y” ( SLAM) i n
Ghana , and i t s successor t he GEF- Funded Uni ted Nat i ons Uni versi t y ( UNU) proj ect
“ Peopl e, Land Management and Envi ronment al Change” ( PLEC) al so successfull y
adopt ed part i ci pat ory approaches whi ch sought communi t y ent r y vi a si mil ar
met hods in t he maj or agro- ecologi cal zones i n Ghana. Thi s incl uded est abli shment
of sampl ing plot s wi t h resi dent s undert aki ng t he more rudi ment ar y aspect s of fi eld
dat a coll ect i on, e.g. t ree speci es, t r ee count , DBH incl uding, i n some inst ances
i nt egrat i on of hand- hel d GPS. Addi ti onal dat a coll ect ed wi t hin t he scope of proj ect s
i ncluded vi t al - socio- economi c dat a.
Whi l st t here ar e no deli berat e carbon st ock measurement s, eff ort s ar e being made
by NGOs and uni versi t y and research i nst i t ut ions t o i nvol ve l ocal communi ti es in
part i ci pat ory act i vi ti es for fi eld dat a coll ection. The capaci t y of parti ci pat i ng
communi ti es has been enhanced t hrough t raining programs i ncluding t he Darwin
programs ( UK) and local coll aborat ors. REDD+ processes wi ll offer great
opport uni ti es for l ocal communi ti es t o have a sense of ownershi p over t hei r forest
resources t hereby ensuri ng dat a accuracy and int egri t y. Thi s will ensure t hei r
commi t ment beyond prevaili ng unat t ract i ve al t ernat i ve li velihood packages bei ng
offered t hem by envi ronment al NGOs. I n t hese and ot her proj ect s, successf ul ent ry
has been i ni ti at ed in close coll aborat ion wi t h local communi t i es and t hei r l eaders.

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3. 4. 2 How communi t ies can make t hei r own forest invent ories
Forest i nvent ory work i s usual l y consi dered a professi onal act i vi t y requi ring speci ali zed
forest educat i on. However, i t i s wel l est abli shed al ready t hat local communi ti es have
ext ensi ve and inti mat e knowl edge of ecosyst em properti es, t ree speci es di st ri buti on, age
di st ri bution, pl ant associ at i ons, et c needed for invent ori es, and t here i s growing evi dence
t hat l and users wi t h very li t tl e professional t raining can make qui t e adequat e and reli abl e
st ock assessment s. I n t he Scol el Te proj ect in Mexi co, for exampl e, f armers make t hei r
own measurement s bot h of t ree growt h i n t he agroforest ry syst em, and of st ock
increases i n forest s under t hei r prot ect i on, and they recei ve ( vol unt ary mar ket ) payment
on t he basi s of thi s.
The met hodology for forest i nvent ory here present ed i s based on procedures
recommended in t he I PCC Good Pract i ce Gui dance, but st ruct ured in such a way t hat
communi t i es can carr y out t he diff erent st eps t hemsel ves wi t hout di ffi cul t y. I nt ermedi ary
organi zat i ons are requi red t o support some of t he t asks, but such i nt ermedi ary
organi zat i ons ar e oft en al ready pr esent and assi st i ng communi ti es i n t hei r f orest
management work. The procedures descri bed have been t est ed at 35 si t es i n seven
count ri es. Thei r reli abili t y has been cross- checked using i ndependent prof essi onal forest
surveyors ( see bel ow in sect i on 3.4.4). I n all cases wher e cross- checki ng was carri ed
out , t he communi ti es’ est i mat es of mean forest carbon cont ent differed by l ess t han 5%
from t hat of t he professi onal s.
Much of t he work i n forest invent ory, at l east as regards above ground woody biomass,
i s si mpl e and repet i t i ve and can be carri ed out by peopl e wi t h ver y l i t tl e educat ion,
worki ng in t eams. The met hod descri bed makes use of hand-hel d comput ers li nked wi t h
GPS i nst rument s t hat can be operat ed by peopl e wi t h as li t tl e as four year s pri mar y
educat i on. The benefi t of thi s set up i s t he combi nat ion of the ease of plot biomass and
ot her dat a recording in t he comput er wi t h maps, aeri al phot os or sat elli t e i mages vi si bl e
on screen, t oget her wi t h t he linked geo- posi tioning from t he GPS. Though t hey may
never have oper at ed a comput er before, vill age peopl e al most everywher e ar e famili ar
wi th mobil e phones, and fi nd t he st ep t o hand- hel d comput ers qui t e easy. Some of t he
key act i vi t i es need t o be super vi sed by people wi t h some underst anding of st at i st i cal
sampl ing and who can mai nt ain I CT equipment . Many fi el d offi ces of forest r y
organi zat i on or local NGOs ar e abl e t o provi de such supporti ve servi ces. To
inst i t uti onali ze communi t y forest i nvent ori es, such i nt ermedi ari es f irst need t o be t rai ned
in the met hodology. These i nt ermedi ari es would t hen t rai n local communi ti es t o carr y
out many of t he st eps necessar y, and oversee t he process at l east in t he fi rst f ew years
in whi ch the forest i nvent ory i s carri ed out . Cert ai n act i vi ti es, such as l ayi ng out t he
permanent sampl e plot s, need exper t i se, but once t hey are est abli shed, annual
measurement s can be made by t he vill agers wi t hout assi st ance. Hence t here will be
hi gher cost s i n t he i ni t i al year s, but t hese fall rapi dl y over t i me. See Tabl es 3.4.1 and
3. 4.2 f or an overvi ew of the st eps invol ved i n t hi s process for t he i nt ermedi ari es and t he
communi t i es, r espect i vel y. Nat urall y, t here will al ways be a need for i ndependent
veri fi cat i on of carbon cl ai ms; Sect i on 3.4.6 consi ders t he opt i ons for thi s.

3- 174
Table 3.4.1. Tasks requi ring i nput from i nt ermedi ary.
Task Who? Equipment Frequency Descri pt i on and comment s
1. I dent i f y
forest
i nvent or y
t eam
members ( 4
t o 7)
I nt er medi ary
i n
consul t at i on
wi t h
communi t y
l eader s
At st ar t Need t o i ncl ude peopl e who ar e f ami li ar wi t h t he
forest and act i ve i n i t s management ; at l east
some must be l i t erat ure/ numerat e. I deal l y t he
same peopl e wi l l do t he f or est i nvent or y work each
year so t hat ski l l s are devel oped and not l ost .
Ther e i s some danger of el i t e capt ure of t he
benefi t s, part i cul arl y i f cash payment s for car bon
gai ns are t o be made over t o t he communi t y,
at t ent i on must be gi ven t o t hi s t o ensur e
t ranspar ency wi t hi n t he communi t y as a whol e.
2.
Programmi ng
PDA wi t h
base map,
dat abase & C
cal cul at or
I nt er medi ary PDA,
i nt ernet
Once, at
st art of
work
Any geo- ref er enced ar ea map of sui t abl e scal e can
scanned and ent er ed i nt o t he PDA for use as t he
base map. Dat abase f or mat can be downl oaded
from websi t e i nt o PDA, as can t he car bon
cal cul at or.
3. Map
boundari es
of
communi t y
forest
Communi t y,
wi t h
i nt ermedi ar y
assi st ance
PDA wi t h
GI S and
GPS
Once, at
st art of
work
Boundari es of many communi t y forest s ar e known
t o l ocal peopl e but not r ecor ded on for mal maps or
geo- r ef er enced. PDAs wi t h bui l t -i n or at t ached
GPS can easi l y be operat ed by l ocal peopl e t o
t rack and mar k t hese boundari es on t he base
map, enabl i ng ar ea for forest t o be cal cul at ed.
4. I dent i f y
and map any
i mport ant
forest st rat a
Communi t y
wi t h
i nt ermedi ar y
assi st ance
PDA wi t h
GI S and
GPS
Once, at
st art of
work
Communi t i es know t hei r forest s wel l . Thi s st ep i s
best car ri ed out by fi rst di scussi ng t he nat ur e of
t he for est and conf i rmi ng what vari at i ons t her e
may be wi t hi n i t ( di ff er ent speci es mi x, di ffer ent
l evel s of degradat i on et c) . Such zones can t hen be
mapped by wal ki ng t hei r boundari es wi t h t he GPS.
5. Pi l ot
survey i n
each st rat um
t o est abl i sh
number of
sampl e pl ot s
Communi t y
wi t h
i nt ermedi ar y
assi st ance
Tr ee t apes
and/ or
cal i pers
The pi l ot survey i s done wi t h around 15 pl ot s i n
each st rat um. Measuri ng t he t r ees i n t hese pl ot s
coul d form t he t rai ni ng exer ci se i n whi ch t he
i nt ermedi ar y fi rst i nt roduces t he communi t y for est
i nvent or y t eam t o measur ement met hods.
6. Set t i ng
out
permanent
pl ot s on map
I nt er medi ary Base map,
cal cul at or
Once, at
st art
Thi s requi res st at i st i cal cal cul ati on of number of
pl ot s needed, based on t he st andar d error f ound i n
t he pi l ot measur ement s. A t ai l or made pr ogram
for t hi s i s downl oadabl e fr om t he websi t e and can
be operat ed on t he PDA. Pl ot s ar e di st ri but ed
syst emat i cal l y and evenl y on a t ransect fr amewor k
wi t h a random st ar t poi nt .
7. Locat i ng
and mar ki ng
sampl i ng
pl ot s i n t he
forest
Communi t y
wi t h
i nt ermedi ar y
assi st ance
Map of pl ot
l ocat i ons,
compass,
GPS, t ape
measur e,
marki ng
equi pment
Once, at
st art
Communi t y t eam st akes out t he cent r es of t he
pl ot s i n t he fi el d by use of compass and measur i ng
t ape. GPS r eadi ngs ar e r ecorded, and t he cent r e
of t he pl ot i s permanent l y mar ked ( e.g. wi t h pai nt
on a vent ral t ree t r unk) . Each pl ot i s gi ven an
i dent i fi cat i on code and det ai l s ( i dent i fyi ng
feat ur es) ar e ent er ed i nt o t he PDA
8. Trai ni ng
communi t y
t eam how t o
measur e
t rees i n
sampl e pl ot s
I nt er medi ary + / - 4 days
fi rst t i me;
1 day for
each of t he
next 3
years
Thi s t ask coul d be ful fil l ed fi rst ti me whi l e carryi ng
out t ask 5, see not es. The t ask i nvol ves l i st i ng and
gi vi ng i dent i f i cat i on codes t o t he t ree speci es
found i n t he forest . I t i s expect ed t hat t he
communi t y wi ll be abl e t o funct i on i ndependent l y
i n t hi s t ask aft er year 4.
9.
I dent i fi cat i on
of sui t abl e
all omet ri c
equat i ons &
programmi ng
i nt o t he PDA
I nt er medi ary Once, at
st art
The program for t he PDA cont ai ns def aul t
all omet ri c equat i ons. I f l ocal ones are avai l abl e,
t hese may be subst i t ut ed, whi ch wi l l gi ve gr eat er
accuracy.
3- 175
Continued…
Task Who? Equipment Frequency Descri pt i on and comment s
10.
Downl oadi ng
from t he PDA
of f or est
i nvent or y
dat a &
forwar di ng t o
regi st r at i on
I nt er medi ary The PDA i s programd t o make al l necessar y
cal cul ati ons and pr oduce an est i mat e of t he mean
of t he car bon st ock i n each st rat um, wi t h
conf i dence l evel s ( t he defaul t preci si on i s set at
10%) . Thi s dat a needs t o be t ransfer r ed t o mor e
secur e dat abases for compari son year t o year and
for event ual regi st rat i on.
11.
Mai nt ai ni ng
PDA
PDAs r equi re r e- char gi ng on a dai l y basi s and
mi nor repai rs from t i me t o t i me. I t i s ant i ci pat ed
t hat an i nt ermedi ar y woul d have several PDAs and
woul d l end t hese t o communi t i es for t he f or est
i nvent or y work ( ar ound 10 days per communi t y
per year ) .

Table 3.4.2 . Tasks t hat can be carri ed out by t he communi t y t eam unai ded aft er
t rai ning.
Task Equi pment Frequency Descript ion and comment s
Measure dbh
( and height , if
required by local
allomet ric
equat ions) of all
t rees of given
minimum
diamet er in
sample plot s
Tree t apes or
callipers
Periodically,
e. g. annually
During t he f irst year, f airly complet e
supervision by t he int ermediary is
advisable, but in subsequent years a
short ref resher t raining will be
suf f icient , see above, t ask 8
Ent er dat a int o
dat abase ( on
paper sheet s
and/ or on PDA)
Recording
sheet s/ PDA
Periodically,
e. g. annually
I n some cases communit ies appear t o
f ind it easier t o use pre- designed
paper f orms t o recor d t ree dat a in t he
f ield, alt hough direct ent ry of dat a int o
t he PDA is cert ainly possible and
r educes chance of t ranscribing error.


3- 176
Box 3. 4.3. Dat a collect ion at t he communit y level

There ar e many good reasons t o i ncl ude communi ti es in t he coll ect i on of dat a for
REDD. Foremost ar e ownershi p and commi t ment : i f t he communi ti es ar e i nvol ved
and get a f ai r share of t he benefi t s, t hen t hey will aut omat i call y become cust odi ans
of t he forest and prot ect t he l ocal resources. More pr act i call y, communi t y
i nvol vement i s t he most cost - effi ci ent mechani sm t o coll ect l arge vol umes of basi c
dat a. There are, however, li mi t at ions t o t he kind of dat a t hat communi ti es can
reli abl y coll ect , and t he dat a i s best li mi t ed t o a smal l set of basi c forest propert i es:
• Speci es i denti fi cat i on, wi th common names. ( Bot ani cal expert t o convert
common names t o sci ent ifi c nomencl at ure.) Peri odi c (e.g. once every fi ve years) .
• Tree count . Annual .
• DBH measurement . Annual .
Even whil e reporting of carbon emi ssi on reduct ion i s not done annuall y, it i s
i mport ant t o col l ect t he basi c dat a annuall y. Thi s mai nt ai ns communi t y
i nvol vement , but i t i s al so a ver y i mport ant t ool t o assess t he quali t y of t he dat a
coll ect i on process and i t provides i nsi ght in t he eff ect i veness of i nt ervent i ons t o
reduce emi ssi ons. Dat a qual i t y assessment over t i me i n a gi ven communi t y can be
augment ed by j oi ntl y anal yzi ng t he dat a from many communi t i es i n a si ngl e
ecol ogi cal zone or forest t ype. I f a cer t ain communi t y i s found t o produce dat a t hat
i s di vergent from t hat of t he ot her communi ti es t hen remedi al act ion can be t aken
by invest i gat i ng i t s cause:
• Errors in t he measurement procedure.
• Errors in t he st rat i fi cat i on of t he forest ( e.g. forest belongs t o a di fferent
ecol ogi cal zone) .
• Effect i veness of int ervent i on (i mproved forest management ) i s di fferent .

Equi pment (PDAs equi pped wi t h si mpl e GI S soft war e such as ArcPad™ and GPS
at t achment s; measuring t apes, t ree t apes, cali pers et c) i s assumed t o be propert y of t he
int ermedi ari es and used by a number of vill ages/ communi t y forest groups i n a gi ven
area. An int ermedi ary wi t h one PDA coul d servi ce bet ween 12 and 20 communi ti es per
year ( for cost est i mat es see Sect ion 3.4.5) . Appropri at e met hodol ogy has been
devel oped by t he Kyot o: Think Gl obal Act Local proj ect and can be downl oaded from t he
proj ect websi t e ( see Box 3. 4.4) .
Communi ti es shoul d be assi st ed i n est abl i shing t he sampling pl ot s. Mar ki ng of t he cent r e
of t he permanent pl ot s, for inst ance wi t h pai nt on t ree t runks, i ncreases t he r eli abil it y of
t he invent ory and reduces t he st andard error by ensuri ng t hat exact l y t he same areas
are measured each year. On t he ot her hand, i t coul d int roduce bi as i n t hat i t shows
where t he measurement s are made, and could l ead forest user s t o avoi d t hese areas
when e.g. col l ect i ng firewood or pol es, t hus reducing t he repr esent at i veness of t he
sampl e. Usi ng a GPS coul d be an al t ernat i ve, but i n densel y forest ed areas t he si gnal
t ends t o be weak, gi ving a coarse det ermi nat ion of posi tion.

3- 177
Box 3 .4.4. The “Kyot o: Think Global, Act Local” collaborat ive resear ch
proj ect

The “ Kyot o: Thi nk Global , Act Local ” research proj ect has been piloting many of t he
t echni ques el aborat ed i n t hi s sect i on. The KTGAL proj ect i s a j oi nt endeavour of
resear ch inst i t ut es and NGOs i n seven count ri es in Asi a and Afri ca, l ed by t he
Uni versi t y of Twent e of The Net herl ands wi t h t he support of I TC, The Net herl ands.
The KTGAL proj ect has prepared manual s i nt ended f or t he t raini ng of i nt ermedi ary
st aff in part i ci pat ory forest invent ory. I t i s assumed most st aff woul d have had at
l east some i nt ermedi at e ( mi ddl e school ) educat i on, and t hat t hey are fami li ar wi t h
comput er s, but i t i s not a requi rement t hat t hey have much forest r y experi ence.
The manual s can be downloaded f rom www.communi t ycarbonforest ry.org, where
you can al so find ot her supporti ng i nformat i on.

3. 4. 3 Addi tional dat a requi rement s
The communi ti es ar e cl earl y i n a posi ti on t o coll ect basi c dat a from t he forest , such as
t ree speci es, t ree count and DBH. However, t he measurement s are not al ways of high
qual i t y, over t i me, bet ween st ands or bet ween observers. Furt hermore, t hese dat a al one
are not suffi ci ent t o comput e above- ground biomass. I t i s t herefore necessary t o have a
par al l el process t o suppl ement t he basi c dat a and t o be abl e t o ascert ai n the quali t y of
t he locall y coll ect ed dat a.
The addi ti onal dat a requi red depends on t he l ocal condi tions and prior inf ormat i on. For
inst ance, i t i s li kel y t hat locall y deri ved all omet ri c equat i ons are used t o cal cul at e above-
ground biomass and t hose equat i ons may require i nput paramet ers l i ke t ree hei ght , free
branch hei ght , or wood densi t y. Such paramet ers coul d be coll ect ed usi ng more
t radi ti onal forest i nvent ory t echni ques, such as t hose descri bed i n sect ions 2.3 and 3.3.
71

3. 4. 4 Reliabili ty and accur acy
I n order t o t est t he reli abili t y of communi ty carbon st ock est i mat es, i ndependent
professi onal forest compani es were empl oyed by t he KTGAL proj ect t o carry out surveys
in three of t he proj ect si t es. I n every case, t here was no more t han 5% di fference i n the
est i mat e of mean carbon l evel s bet ween t he professi onal s and t he communi t y.
I t i s recommended t hat communi ti es make annual measurement s, even t hough REDD+
credi t s may be i ssued onl y at t he end of a fi ve year commi t ment peri od. There are a
number of reasons for thi s:
 I f forest s ar e measured annuall y, communi ti es will be more awar e of changes i n
t he forest , moreover t hey will not forget how t o make t he measurement s.
 Annual fl uct uat ions due t o weat her changes are common; a fi ve year t raj ect ory
enabl es t hese t o some ext ent t o be smoot hed out .


71
Even if no addit ional paramet ers are required beyond DBH, it is import ant t o have a parallel
process t o measure DBH and t ree count s wit h high accuracy, in order t o validat e t he input
received f rom communit ies. St andard st at ist ical t echniques can t hen be applied t o est ablish
whet her or t he dat a received f rom communit ies is reliable or not . Such an independent
assessment is necessary t o f ilt er out errors in measurement and report ing, but also t o est ablish
t he accuracy of t he local dat a.
3- 178
 Any errors of measurement i n a part i cul ar year may be more easil y det ect ed and
eli minat ed. Annual measurement provi des a robust approach t o invent ory.
 I t i s li kel y t hat nat i onal REDD+ programs will have t o offer annual i ncent i ves for
carbon savi ngs rat her t han end- of- commi t ment - period payment s, as communi ti es
are unli kel y t o accept a fi ve year wai ting period.
The confidence l evel used i n det er mi ning t he number of sampl e plot s i s a maj or fact or i n
t he cost of carryi ng out forest invent ory work. A confi dence l evel of 95% rat her t han
90% requi res many more sampl e plot s (i .e. more work by communi t i es i n maki ng
measurement s) . On t he ot her hand, l ess uncert ai nt y in t he assessment of above- ground
carbon wil l most li kel y l ead t o hi gher carbon emi ssion reducti on est i mat es and t hus
hi gher payment s. I nversel y, i f t he error i n the dat a, est abli shed t hrough st at i st i cal
anal ysi s, i s hi gh, t hen t he error margi ns at t he onset and end of t he report ing period
may overl ap, and no carbon credi t s wi ll be i ssued; see Sect i on 2.4 for more det ail s.
To det er mine t he number of sampli ng pl ot s, gi ven a cert ai n confi dence l evel and
maxi mum error, one can appl y t he following formul a:
( Equat ion 4 .4.1)
2
*
|
|
.
|

\
|
·
·
=


e
z
n
where z* i s t he di st ri bution cri ti cal val ue at a cert ai n confi dence l evel ( publ ished i n any
textbook on statistics), σ is the standard deviation, e is the maxi mum allowabl e error,
and µ i s t he aver age bi omass in t he forest st r at um.
For a forest where μ is 400 t/ha with σ is 65 t/ha, if you want to have an error of at most
5%, wi th 90% confidence l evel ( z* = 1.645) :
29 58 . 28
400 05 . 0
65 645 . 1
2
= =
|
.
|

\
|
·
·
= n
For a 95% confidence l evel ( z* = 1.960) :
41 58 . 40
400 05 . 0
65 960 . 1
2
= = |
.
|

\
|
·
·
= n
I nversel y, gi ven a cert ai n number of sampl es, t he expect ed error can be cal cul at ed:
( Equat ion 4.4.2)


·
·
=
n
z
e
*

In all cases the average biomass in the forest μ and its standard deviation σ need t o be
est abl i shed fi rst . Thi s i s best done by professional forest ers, usi ng generall y accept ed
t echni ques for sampl ing. I n pract i ce t hi s i mplies a mi ni mum of 30 randoml y l ocat ed
sampl es per forest st rat um.
Prot ocol s regardi ng confi dence l evel s are li kel y t o be adopt ed nat i onall y. The number of
sampl es r equired t o reach t hat confi dence l evel gi ven a cert ai n maxi mum error for each
forest ( t ype) should be det ermi ned by a professi onal organi zat i on, e.g. a Forest
Depart ment , usi ng accept ed st at i st i cal pract i ce. I t can be reduced by car eful
st r at i fi cat i on of forest ecosyst em / t ype, because t hat wi ll reduce t he st andard devi at ion
of the sampl es in each st rat um, and t hi s i s st rongl y recommended.
3. 4. 5 Cost s
The KTGAL proj ect est i mat ed cost s of communi ty forest i nvent ory as r angi ng bet ween $1
and $4 per hect ar e per year, incl udi ng day wages for t he communi t y members i nvol ved
and t he int ermedi ary, and a fact or for ‘rent al ’ of t he equi pment ( PDA, GPS, et c) . The
cost s i n t he fi rst year ar e hi gher t han t hi s, gi ven t he subst ant i al input s by t he
3- 179
int ermedi ary i n t raining communi t y members and est abli shment of t he sampli ng plot s.
Aver age cost s ar e much lower i n l arge, homogeneous forest s owi ng t o economi es of
scal e. The equi val ent cost s i f professional organi zat i ons were t o be empl oyed inst ead of
communi t i es ar e t wo t o t hree t i mes hi gher t han t hi s.
Carbon may be cr edi t ed on a l onger t i me int erval ( e. g. 5 year s) , but l ocal communi ti es
need t o be pai d annual l y or even more fr equent t o mai nt ai n t hei r commi t ment t o t he
process. How payment s are effect uat ed and on what basi s ar e up t o t he government .
Essent i all y t here are t hree opt ions:
1. Communi t i es i mpl ement act i vi t i es t o st op deforest at i on and reduce f orest
degr adat i on and regul arl y i nvent ory t he f orest t o assess t he amount of biomass.
Payment i s for the act ual amount of emi ssion reduct ions or forest enhancement .
There i s posi ti ve feedback from effect i ve forest management by t he communi ti es
(more payment ) but i t will be very di ffi cul t to admi ni st er such an arr angement .
Payment s will have t o be made prior to recei pt of CERs ( CDM credi t s) by t he
government in order t o mai nt ain communit y i nvol vement .
2. I nvent ori es done by communi ti es ar e pai d for by government , as compensat i on for
t he effort made by t he communi ti es. There i s t hus no link wi t h reduct i ons in
emi ssi ons or carbon sequest r at i on – or increased emi ssi ons for t hat mat t er –
payment i s made for servi ces rendered. Thi s i s probabl y t he easi est t o i mpl ement but
i t i s a “ dumb” approach; t he communi ti es ar e not rewarded f or act i vi ti es t hat l ead t o
reducing emi ssions or enhanci ng t he f orest .
3. I nvent ori es are done by government who i ndemni fy t he communi ti es for l oss of
opport uni t i es ( i .e. ri ght t o ext r act t i mber or NTFPs) . Thi s may be t he pr efer ence by
government s t hat t o dat e have a st rong and act i ve Forest Depart ment , but i t does
not address t he cause of prior deforest at i on or forest degr adat ion.
3. 4. 6 Opt ions for i ndependent assessment of l ocally collect ed dat a
Nat ional government s will probabl y want t o have an i ndependent mechani sm t o veri fy
t he cl ai ms made by local communi ti es. One of the options i s st at i st i cal anal ysi s, as
bri efl y expl ained above, but at l arger scal es remot e sensi ng would be an obvi ous choi ce;
see Sect i ons 2.2 and 2.3. I n order t o enabl e such assessment s, forest organi zat i ons
should make more compl et e i nvent ori es at t he t i me of est abli shing t he sampl ing scheme
for communi t y carbon assessment s. A proper st r at i fi cat ion of the forest , wi t h due
consi derat i on for t hose propert i es of the forest t hat ar e easil y det ect ed on sat elli t e
i magery, will be of pri me i mport ance, as wil l be t he det ai l ed descri ption of t he f orest
st ruct ure.
The dat a t hat ar e bei ng col l ect ed by t he communi ti es can be correl at ed t o sat elli t e
i magery usi ng a number of t echni ques. The fi rst one looks at t he ( assumed)
homogenei t y of t he st rat a in t he forest , whil e the second one est abli shes t he correl at ion
bet ween bi omass as measured i n t he forest and refl ect ance r ecorded i n t he sat elli t e
i mage:
 Assumi ng t hat t he st r at i fi cat i on of t he forest has l ed t o homogenous uni t s, t he
refl ect ance char act eri st i cs of t he pi xel s i n t he st r at um wi ll be si mil ar as well at t he
t i me t he st rat i fi cat ion i s made ( i . e. i t has a uni form look in t he i magery) . At a
l at er st age, when some management i nt ervent i on has been i mpl ement ed and t he
communi t i es are coll ect ing dat a, a new i mage can be anal yzed for i t s uniformi t y.
I f t he uniformi t y i s no longer present , or weaker t han before, i t may be t hat part
of t he forest was deforest ed or some communi ties ar e not managi ng t he forest as
t hey shoul d ( but see al so Box 3 for ot her pot enti al causes) . Pl ease not e t hat t he
refl ect ance i t sel f may have changed i f t he biomass changed, ei t her t hrough
conti nued but reduced degr adat i on or because of forest enhancement .
Homogenei t y, and t hus uniformi t y in t he sat elli te i mage, may al so i ncrease if t he
3- 180
forest i s more uniforml y degraded or enhanced; t hi s may be avoi ded by appl yi ng
a more st ri ct st r at i fi cat i on i nit i al l y.
 Using a st andard i mage anal ysi s t echni que, t he bi omass assessment made by t he
communi t i es can be correl at ed t o t he refl ect ance i n t he sat elli t e i mage. I n open
woodl ands and forest t ypes t hat have a di st i nct seasonal dynami c ( e.g. l eaf
sheddi ng i n t he dry season) t he assessment ( t i ming) has t o be compat i bl e wi t h
t he measurement s made by t he l ocal communi t y. Outl i ers i n t he correl at i on
indi cat e some i ssue wi t h t he dat a coll ect ion process ( or defi ci ent st r at i fi cat i on) .
When wi del y i mpl ement ed, t he sheer vol ume of l ocal l y col l ect ed dat a, probabl y
even when a det ai l ed st r at i fi cat ion of t he forest i s made, makes i t possi bl e t o use
onl y a (random) sampl e of t he local dat a.
3. 4. 7 Emergi ng i nformat ion needs and t echnologies for locally
collect ed data
Fut ure scenari os include t he demand for addi tional t ypes of i nformat i on on CFM whi ch
mi ght be requi red under REDD+ di rect i ves:
 Local / indi genous informat i on on forest ecosyst em – maybe needed under REDD+
syst ems for l andscape- l evel all ocat ion of funds under sub-nat i onal governance of
REDD+ finances
 Local / indi genous informat i on on t ype and quali t y of management and t hei r
indi cat ors – maybe needed under REDD+ syst ems for all ocat i ng funds according
t o t ypes and quali t y of forest management .
The great t echnologi cal pot enti al lies in t he probabl e fut ure ubi qui t y and reduced cost s of
mobil e I T whi ch will have gr eat l y increased f unct ionali ti es (at l ower cost ) and will be
much easi er t o handl e.
 The smart phone wi t h l arge memory ( wi th a card) for st oring t he necessar y
i magery or maps, wi t h GPS capabil i t y of reasonabl e preci si on, and wi t h t he web
capaci t y for downloadi ng i mages and upl oadi ng dat a can repl ace t he PDA set -up.
Maj or advant age i s ease of use, conveni ence of suppl y and repai r, and especi all y
ut ili zing the exi st ing famili ari t y of ordinary people wi t h cell phones – very easy for
young communi t y members t o ‘upgrade’ t o a smart phone. Currentl y, cost s ar e
hi gh, but not prohi bi ti ve compar ed t o PDA and GPS, and t he busi ness pl an /
concept i s t hat t he local int ermedi ari es / broker s woul d be t he resource hol ders of
smart phones until such ti me as uni t pri ces will drop.
 Soft ware wi t h very user- fri endl y int erface bet ween users and t he PDA or smart
phone i s bei ng adapt ed for carbon measurement , wi t h speci al at t ent i on t o
illit erat e users, vi a appli cat i on of i cons and simplifi ed dat a recording and cl ear
sequent i al i nst ruct ions.
4- 181
4 COUNTRY CAPACI TY BUI LDI NG
Sandra Brown, Winrock I nt ernat i onal , USA
Mart i n Herol d, Wageningen Uni versi t y, The Net herl ands
Margaret Skut sch, Cent ro de I nvest i gaci ones en Geografía Ambi ent al , UNAM, Méxi co
4.1 SCOPE OF CHAPTER
Count ri es current l y undert ake nat i onal forest moni t ori ng dri ven by a number of
mot i vat i ons from economi c, socio-cul tural and envi ronment al perspect i ves. I n most
devel opi ng count ri es, however, t he quali t y of current forest moni t oring i s consi dered not
sat i sfact ory for an accounting syst em of carbon credi t s ( Hol mgren et al . 2007) . The
devel opment of forest moni t ori ng syst ems for REDD+ i s a fundament al requi rement and
area of invest ment for part i ci pat i on in t he REDD+ process. Despi t e t he broader benefi t s
of moni toring nat ional forest resources per se, t here i s a set of speci fi c requirement s for
est abl i shing a nat i onal forest carbon moni toring syst em for REDD+ i mpl ement at i on.
They include:
 The consi derat i ons of a nat ional REDD+ i mpl ement at i on st rat egy.
 Syst emat i c and repeat ed measurement s of all rel evant forest -rel at ed carbon
st ock changes. Robust and cost - effect i ve met hodologi es for such purpose exi st
( UNFCCC, 2008a) .
 The est i mat ion and reporti ng of carbon emi ssions and removal s on t he nat i onal
l evel usi ng the I PCC Good Pract i ce Gui dance on Land Use Land Use Change and
Forest ry gi ven t he rel at ed requi rement s f or t ransparency, consi st ency,
compar abili t y, compl et eness, and accuracy.
 The encouragement for t he moni toring syst ems and r esul t s t o revi ew
independent l y.
The desi gn and i mpl ement at i on of a moni toring syst em for REDD+ can be underst ood as
invest ment i n informat i on t hat i s essent i al for a successful i mpl ement at i on of REDD. Thi s
chapt er provi des a more det ail ed descri pti on of requi red st eps and capaci ti es buil ding
upon the GOFC- GOLD sourcebook recommendat ions.

4.2 BUI LDI NG NATI ONAL CARBON MONI TORI NG
SYSTEMS FOR REDD: ELEMENTS AND CAPACI TI ES
4. 2. 1 Key elements and requi red capacit i es - overview
The devel opment of a nat i onal moni toring syst em for REDD+ i s a process. A summar y of
key component s and requi red capaci t i es for est i mat i ng and reporting emi ssi ons and
removal s from forest s i s provi ded in Tabl e 4.2. 1. The first sect ion of pl anning and desi gn
should speci fy t he moni tori ng obj ect i ves and impl ement at i on framework based on t he
underst andi ng of:
 The st at us of int ernat ional UNFCCC deci sions and rel at ed gui dance for moni toring
and i mpl ement at ion.
 The nat ional REDD+ i mpl ement at i on st rat egy and obj ect i ves.
 Knowl edge in the appli cat i on of I PCC LULUCF good pract i ce gui dance.
4- 182
 Exi st ing nat i onal forest moni t oring capabili ti es.
 Expert i se i n est i mat ing t errest ri al carbon dynami cs and rel at ed human- induced
changes.
 The consi derat i on of di fferent requi rement s for moni toring forest changes in t he
past ( hi st ori cal dat a) and f or t he fut ure (accounting peri od) .
The pl anning and desi gn phase should resul t i n a nat i onal REDD+ moni toring framewor k
(i ncl . defi ni tions, moni t oring vari abl es, i nsti t utional set t i ng et c.) , and a pl an for capaci t y
devel opment and l ong- t erm i mprovement and t he est i mat i on of ant i ci pat ed cost s.
I mpl ement i ng measurement and moni toring procedures t o obt ai n basi c informat i on t o
est i mat e GHG emi ssions and removal s requi res capabili t i es f or dat a col l ect i on for a
number of vari abl es. Carbon dat a deri ved from nat i onal forest i nvent ori es and
permanent plot measurement s, and remot e sensing- based moni t oring ( pri mari l y to
est i mat e act i vi t y dat a) ar e most commonl y used. I n addi t i on, i nformat i on from t he
compi l ati ons of forest management pl ans, i ndependent r eport s, and case st udi es and/ or
model s have provi ded useful forest dat a f or nat ional moni tori ng purposes. I rrespect i ve of
t he choi ce of met hod, t he uncert ai nt y of all resul t s and est i mat es need t o be quant i fi ed
and reduced as far as pr act i cabl e. A key st ep t o reduce uncer t ainti es i s t he appli cat i on of
best effort s usi ng sui t abl e dat a source, appropri at e dat a acqui si ti on and processi ng
t echni ques, and consi st ent and t ranspar ent dat a i nt erpret at ion and anal ysi s. Expert i se i s
needed for t he appli cat ion of st at i st i cal met hods t o quanti fy, report , and anal yze
uncert ai nti es, t he underst andi ng and handl ing of error sources, and approaches for a
conti nuous i mprovement of t he moni toring syst em bot h i n t erms of increasi ng cert ai nt y
for est i mat es ( i .e. move from Ti er 2 t o Ti er 3) or for a more compl et e est i mat i on (include
addi tional carbon pool s) .
Al l rel evant dat a and informat i on shoul d be st ored, updat ed, and made avail abl e t hrough
a common dat a i nf rast ruct ure, i . e. as part of nat ional GHG informat ion syst em. The
informat i on syst em should provi de t he basi s f or t he t ranspar ent est i mat i on of emi ssi ons
and removal s of greenhouse gases. I t should al so hel p i n anal ysi s of t he dat a ( i . e.
det ermi ning t he dri vers and fact ors of forest change), support for nat ional and
int ernat ional reporting usi ng a common format of I PCC GPG ‘reporti ng t abl es’, and i n t he
i mpl ement at i on of qual it y assurance and quali t y cont rol procedures, perhaps fol lowed by
an expert peer revi ew.
Table 4 .2.1. Component s and requi red capaci t ies for est abli shi ng a nat ional moni toring
syst em for est i mat i ng emi ssions and removal s from forest s.
Phase Com ponent Capaci t ies r equi red
1. Need f or est abl i sh ing a f or est
moni t or i ng syst em as par t of a
nat i onal REDD+ im pl em ent at i o n
act i vi t y
- Kno wl edge o n i nt er nat i onal UNFCCC d ecisi ons an d SBSTA gu idance f or mo ni t or i ng an d
im pl em ent at i o n
- Kno wl edge o f nat i onal REDD+ i mp lement at io n st r at egy and o b ject ives
2. Assessment of exi st i ng nat i onal
f or est mon i t or i ng f r amewor k
and capacit ies, and
id ent if icat io n of gaps i n t he
exi st i ng dat a so ur ces
- Und er st an di ng of I PCC LULUCF est im at i on an d r ep or t i ng r equ ir ement s
- Synt hesi s of pr evi ous nat i onal and i nt er nat io nal r epor t i ng ( i. e. UNFCCC nat i onal
comm un icat i o ns & FAO For est Resour ces Assessment )
- Exp er t i se i n est i mat ing t er r est r ial car b on dynam ics, r elat ed h um an-in duced changes
and m on it or ing ap pr oach es
- Exp er t i se t o assess usef ul ness and r el i abi l i t y of exist i ng capaci t i es, dat a so u r ces an d
inf or mat io n
Pl anning
&
design

3. Design of f or est m on i t or i ng
syst em dr i ven by UNFCCC
r epor t ing r eq ui r ement s wi t h
ob j ect ives f or h i st or ical dat a
and f ut ur e mon i t or i ng
- Det ai l ed know l edge i n app l icat io n of IPCC LULUCF goo d pr act i ce gu i dance
- Agr eemen t on d ef i ni t i o ns, r ef er ence u nit s, and m on it or i ng var i abl es and f r am ewor k
- Inst it u t i onal f r am ewor k speci f yi ng r ol es an d r espo nsi b il it i es
- Capacit y d evel opment an d lo ng-t er m i mpr ovem ent pl ann i ng
- Cost est i mat io n f or est abl ishi ng an d st r engt h en ing i nst it u t i onal f r am ewor k, capaci t y
devel opm ent and act ual oper at i ons an d b udget plann i ng
4- 183
Continued…
Phase Component Capacit i es requir ed
4. For est ar ea change assessment
(act ivi t y dat a)
- Revi ew, co nso l idat e and int egr at e t h e exist ing dat a an d i nf or m at i on
- Und er st an di ng of d ef or est at i o n dr iver s an d f act or s
- If hi st or i cal dat a r ecor d i nsuf f icient – use of r em ot e sensi ng:
o Exp er t i se and h uman r eso ur ces i n accessi ng, pr ocessi ng, and i nt er pr et at io n of
m ult i -dat e r emot e sensi ng i mager y f or f or est changes
o Tech n i cal r esour ces (Har d/ Sof t war e, I nt er net , image dat abase)
o Appr oach es f or deal i ng wi t h t ech ni cal chal lenges (i . e. clo ud cover , m issing dat a)
5. Changes i n car b o n st ocks
- Und er st an di ng of pr ocesses inf l uenci ng t er r est r i al car b o n st ocks
- Conso l i dat i on an d in t egr at i on o f exi st i ng obser vat i o ns and i nf or mat io n, i .e. nat i onal
f or est i nvent or y or p er m anent samp l e pl ot s:
o Nat i onal cover age and car bo n d ensi t y st r at i f i cat i o n
o Conver sio n t o car bo n st ocks and change est im at es
- Tech n ical exp er t i se an d r esour ces t o mon i t or car b on st ock changes:
o I n-si t u dat a col l ect i o n of al l t h e r equ ir ed par am et er s and dat a pr ocessi ng
o Human r esour ces and equ ipm ent t o car r y out f i eld wor k (vehi cl es, maps of
appr o pr iat e scal e, GPS, measur emen t s un i t s)
o Nat i onal i nvent or y/ per man ent samp l i ng (samp l e d esi gn, p lo t con f igur at io n )
o Det ai led invent or y i n ar eas o f f or est change or “ REDD+ act io n”
o Use of r emot e sensi ng (st r at i f i cat i o n, b iom ass est i mat i on)
- Est i mat io n at su f f i ci ent IPCC Ti er level f or :
o Est im at i o n of car bo n st ock changes d ue t o l an d use change
o Est im at i o n of changes in f or est ar eas r emain i ng f or est s
o Consi d er at i on of i mpact o n f i ve di f f er ent car bo n poo l s
6. Emi ssi ons f r om b i omass
bur n i ng
- Und er st an di ng of nat i o nal f i r e r egi me an d f ir e eco l ogy, an d r elat ed emi ssi o n f or
dif f er ent gr eenh ouse gases
- Und er st an di ng of sl ash and b ur n cu lt i vat i on pr act ice and kn o wl edge of t h e ar eas
wh er e b ei ng pr act i ced
- Fir e m on it or i ng capabi l i t ies t o est imat e f ir e ef f ect ed ar ea an d em issi on f act or s:
o Use of sat el l i t e dat a an d pr o duct s f or act i ve f ir e and bur n ed ar ea
o Cont i n uo us i n-si t u measur ement s ( par t i cul ar em issio n f act or s)
M onit or ing
7. Accur acy assessm ent and
ver i f i cat i o n
- Und er st an di ng of er r or sour ces an d u ncer t ai nt i es i n t h e assessmen t pr ocess
- Kno wl edge o n t h e appl i cat i on of best ef f or t s usi ng ap pr o pr iat e desi gn, accu r at e dat a
col l ect i o n, pr ocessi ng t echn i q ues, and consist ent an d t r anspar ent dat a i nt er pr et at i on
and anal ysi s
- Exp er t i se on t he ap pl icat i on of st at i st i cal m et ho ds t o quant if y, r epor t an d analyze
uncer t ai nt i es f or al l r el evant i nf or m at i o n (i. e. ar ea change, change i n car bo n st ocks
et c. ) usi ng, i d eal ly, a sampl e of h i gh er q ual i t y inf or mat io n
8. Nat i onal GHG i nf or m at i o n
syst em
- Kno wl edge o n t echn i q u es t o gat her , st or e, an d anal yze f or est and ot h er dat a, wi t h
emphasi s o n car bon em i ssi o ns f r om LULUCF
- Dat a i nf r ast r uct ur e, i n f or m at i on t ech nol ogy (su i t abl e har d/ so f t war e) and h uman
r esour ces t o m aint ain and exchange dat a an d qual i t y con t r ol
9. Anal ysis of dr i ver s an d f act or s of
f or est change
- Und er st an di ng and avai l ab i li t y of dat a f or spat i o -t em p or al pr ocesses af f ect i ng f or est
change, soci o-econ om ic dr i ver s, spat ial f act or s, f or est managem ent an d lan d use
pr act ices, and spat ial p l an ni ng
- Exp er t i se i n spat i al an d t emp or al analysi s an d use o f mo del ing t o ol s
10. Est ab li shment of r ef er ence
em issi o n l evel and r egu l ar
up dat i ng
- Dat a and kn o wl edge on d ef or est at io n an d f or est d egr adat i on pr ocesses, associ at ed
GHG emi ssio ns, dr iver s and expect ed f ut ur e devel o pment s
- Exp er t i se i n spat i al an d t emp or al analysi s an d m o d el i ng t oo l s
- Speci f icat io ns f or a nat i onal REDD+ im pl em ent at i o n f r amew or k
Analysis &
report i ng
11. Nat i onal an d i nt er nat io nal
r epor t i ng
- Exp er t i se i n accou nt i ng and r epor t ing pr oced ur es f or LULUCF usi ng t h e IPCC GPG
- Consid er at i on of u ncer t ai nt i es and un der st an d ing pr oced ur es f or i nd ep en d ent
int er nat i o nal r evi ew

4. 2. 2 Key elements and requi red capacit i es - GHG i nvent ories
The di scussi on of requi rement s and el ement s ( see Tabl e 4.2.1) emphasi zes t hat
comprehensi ve capaci ti es ar e r equi red for t he moni tori ng, report ing and accounting of
emi ssi ons and removal s of GHG from forest l and. So far, non- Annex I Par t i es wer e not
requi red t o est abli sh a GHG i nvent ory. However, t he devel opment of UNFCCC nat i onal
communi cat i ons has st i mul at ed support and engagement for count ri es t o est abl i sh
nat i onal GHG i nvent ori es and rel at ed nat i onal monit oring and reporting capaci t i es. Fi gure
4. 2.1 hi ghl ight s t he current st at us and t he range of compl et eness for nat ional GHG
invent ori es. About 1/ 5 of non- Annex I Part i es ar e l i st ed wi th a fully devel oped invent ory.
4- 184
An addi ti onal 46 count ri es have t aken si gnifi cant st eps wi t h invent ori es i n t he range of
50-100 % compl et e. About hal f of t he count ri es current l y have syst ems l ess t han 50 %
compl et e. Al t hough t he i nformat i on in Fi gure 4.2.1 refers t o t he est abli shment of full
GHG i nvent ori es, where t he LULUCF sect or i s onl y one component , Fi gure 3.5.1 provi des
a sense of a current capaci t y gap f or nat ional -l evel GHG est i mat ing and reporting
procedures usi ng t he I PCC GPG.
Figure 4.2.1. St at us for compl et i ng nat ional greenhouse gas i nvent ori es as part of
Global Envi ronment Faci li t y support for t he prepar at i on of nat ional communi cat ions of
150 non- Annex I Part i es (UNFCCC, 2008b) .


A st at us of count ry capaci t i es f or the moni toring of forest ar ea change and changes i n
forest carbon st ocks may be i nferred from analyzi ng t he most recent FAO global Forest
Resources Assessment ( FRA) for 2005 ( FAO 2006) . Assuming t hat all avail abl e and
rel evant informat ion have been used by count ries t o report under t he FRA, Fi gures 4.2.2
and 4.2.3 summari ze t he rel evant capaci ti es for non-Annex I Part i es.
I n t erms of moni toring changes in forest ar ea, Fi gures 4.2.2 highli ght s t hat al most all
non-Annex I Part i es were abl e t o provi de est i mat e forest ar ea and changes. About t wo-
t hi rds of count ri es provi ded t hi s informat i on based on mul t i - dat e dat a; about one- t hi rd
report ed based on singl e- dat e dat a. Most of t he count ri es used dat a from t he year 2000
or bef ore as most recent dat a point for forest area, whil e 46 of 149 count ri es we abl e t o
suppl y more r ecent est i mat es. Of t he count ri es t hat used mul t i - dat e i nformat ion t here i s
an al most even di st ri buti on for t he use of i nformat ion sources bet ween fi el d surveyi ng
and mapping, remot e sensi ng- based approaches, and, wi t h l ess frequency, for exper t
est i mat es ( Not e: count ri es may have used mul tipl e sources) .

4- 185
Figures 4. 2.2. Summary of dat a and i nformat i on sources used by 150 non-Annex I
Part i es t o report on forest area change for t he FAO FRA 2005 ( FAO 2006) .


A small er number of count ri es provi ded est i mat es for carbon st ocks ( Fi gure 4.2.3) . 101
of 150 count ri es report ed on t he over all st ocks in aboveground carbon pool. Since t he
aboveground and belowground carbon pool s are correl at ed al most t he same number of
count ri es report ed on t he carbon in bel ow ground veget at i on. Fewer count ri es were abl e
t o provi de dat a on t he ot her pool s, i n parti cular for carbon in t he soil s 23 ( count ri es) .
The report ed forest carbon pool est i mat es are pri maril y based on growing st ock dat a as
pri mary observat ion vari abl e. Of the 150 non-Annex Part i es, 41 report ed no growing
st ock dat a. 75 count ri es provi ded si ngl e- dat e and 34 mul ti- dat e growing st ock dat a. A
number of different sources are appli ed by count ri es for convert i ng growing st ocks t o
bi omass ( and t o carbon in t he next st ep) , wi t h t he I PCC GPG def aul t fact ors bei ng used
most commonl y (Fi gure 4.2. 3) . The use of t hese def aul t fact ors woul d ref er t o a Ti er 1
approach for est i mat i ng carbon st ock change usi ng t he I PCC GPG. Onl y 17 count ri es
convert ed growi ng st ock t o bi omass usi ng speci fi c and, usuall y, nat i onal conversi on
fact ors.
Figure 4.2.3. Summary of dat a for fi ve dif ferent carbon pool s report ed (l ef t ) and
informat i on sources used by 150 non- Annex I Part i es t o convert growing st ocks t o
bi omass ( ri ght ) for t he FAO FRA 2005 ( FAO 2006, count ri es may have used mul ti pl e
sources for t he conversi on process) .


4- 186
Fi gures 4.2.2 & 4. 2.3 emphasi ze t he varyi ng l evel of capaci t i es among non- Annex I
Part i es. Gi ven t he resul t s of FAO’s FRA 2005, t he maj ori t y of count ri es have l i mi t ati ons
in provi ding a compl et e and accurat e est i mat i on of GHG emi ssions and removal s from
forest l and. Some gaps in t he current moni toring capaci ti es can be summari zed by
consi deri ng t he fi ve UNFCCC report ing pri ncipl es:
 Consist ency: Report ing by many count ri es i s based ei t her on singl e- dat e
measurement s or on int egrat i ng different het erogeneous dat a sources rat her t han
usi ng a syst emat i c and consi st ent moni toring;
 Transparency: Expert opi nions, i ndependent assessment s or model est i mat i ons
are commonl y used as i nformat i on source for forest carbon dat a ( Hol mgren et al .
2007); oft en causi ng a l ack of t ransparency i n t he met hods used;
 Comparabilit y: Few count ri es have experi ence i n usi ng the I PCC GPG as
common est i mat ion and reporting f ormat among Parti es;
 Complet eness: The l ack of sui t abl e forest resource dat a i n many non-Annex
Part i es i s evi dent for both area change and changes of carbon st ocks. Carbon
st ock dat a for aboveground and belowground carbon are oft en based on
est i mat i ons or conversi ons usi ng I PCC def aul t dat a and ver y f ew count ri es ar e
abl e t o provi de i nformat i on on all fi ve carbon pool s.
 Accuracy: Ther e i s li mi t ed i nformat i on on error sources and uncert ai nti es of t he
est i mat es and reli abili t y l evel s by count ri es and approaches t o anal yze, reduce,
and deal wi th t hem for i nt ernat i onal reporti ng and for i mpl ement at i on of carbon
credi t ing procedures.
I n a 2009 st udy
72
, informat i on from various consi st ent gl obal informat ion sources was
anal yzed t o assess current nat i onal moni toring capabi liti es of for 99 t ropi cal non- Annex I
Part i es (Fi gure 4.2.4) . The assessment of current moni t oring capabili ti es has emphasi zed
t hat t he maj ori t y of count ri es have li mi t at ions in t hei r abili t y t o provi de a compl et e and
accur at e est i mat i on of greenhouse gas ( GHG) fluxes and forest l osses. Less t han 20%
of t he count ri es have submi t t ed a compl et e GHG invent ory so far, and onl y 3 out of t he
99 count ri es current l y have capaci ti es consi dered t o be very good for both forest area
change moni t ori ng and for forest i nvent ori es. The current capaci t y gap can be defi ned as
t he di fference bet ween what i s requi red and what current l y exi st s for count ri es t o
measure and veri fy t he success of REDD+ i mplement at i on act i ons using t he I PCC GPG.
As a synt hesi s of thi s st udy, t he fi gure bel ow indi cat es t he current di st ri but ion where t he
l argest capaci t y gaps exi st for count ri es:
 t hat have li mi t ed experi ence i n est i mat i on and report i ng of nat ional GHG
invent ori es, in appli cat i on of t he I PCC GPG, and wi t h li mi t ed engagement i n t he
UNFCCC REDD+ process so far;
 wi th l ow exi st ing capabi liti es t o continuousl y measure forest area changes and
changes in forest carbon st ocks as part of a nat i onal forest moni t ori ng syst em;
reporti ng carbon st ock changes on t he I PCC Ti er 2 l evel i s consi dered a mi ni mum
requi rement ;
 t hat f ace part i cul ar chall enges for REDD+ impl ement at i on t hat may not be
rel evant for all count ri es, ( e.g. t hey have hi gh current def orest at i on rat es and
si gni fi cant emi ssions from forest degr adat ion, bi omass burning and soil carbon
st ocks are current l y not measured on a r egul ar basi s) and requi re i nvest ment s t o
observe more I PCC key cat egori es and move t owards Ti er 3 l evel measurement s;
and
 where t he avail abili t y of useful dat a sources for REDD+ moni tori ng i s const rai ned.
I n t hi s st udy t he focus i s on t he avail abili t y of common sat elli t e dat a sources ( i . e.
Landsat , SPOT) t hat may be li mi t ed i n thei r use due t o l ack of recei vi ng st at i ons,
persi st ent cl oud cover, seasonali t y i ssues, t opography or i nadequat e dat a access
infrast ruct ure.


72
available at ht t p: / / pr inces. 3cdn. net / 8453c17981d0ae3cc8_q0m6vsqxd. pdf
4- 187

Capaci t y buil ding act i vi ti es shoul d consi der t he di ff erent ent ry poi nt s for count ri es in t hi s
process and work t owards an ul ti mat e goal t hat all int erest ed count ri es have a mi ni mum
l evel of moni t ori ng capaci t y i n pl ace wi t hi n t he next few year s.
Figure 4. 2.4. Spat i al di st ri buti on of t he capaci t y gap for t he di ff erent count ri es
anal yzed.


4. 2. 3 Key elements and requi red capacit ies - cur rent moni t ori ng
capacit ies
The pat hways and cost i mpli cat ions for count ri es t o est abl i sh REDD+ moni t oring syst em
requi res underst andi ng of t he capaci t y gap bet ween what i s needed for such a syst em
( see Tabl e 4.2.1) and the st at us of current moni t oring capaci ti es. The i mport ant st eps t o
be consi dered by count ri es are out lined i n Fi gure 4.2.5. Fundament al t o t hi s i s
underst andi ng of all rel evant nat i onal act ors about t he i nt ernat ional UNFCCC deci si ons
and SBTSA guidance on REDD, t he st at us of t he nati onal REDD+ i mpl ement at i on
act i vi ti es, knowl edge of I PCC LULUCF good pract i ce gui dance and expert i se i n t errest ri al
carbon dynami cs and rel at ed human- induced changes.

4- 188
Figure 4.2.5 . Flowchart for t he process t o est abli shing a nat i onal moni t ori ng syst em
li nking key component s and requi red capaci ti es ( see Tabl e 4.2.1) .


Uncert ai n i nput dat a (i .e. on forest ar ea change and C st ock change) i s a common
phenomenon among non-Annex I Par t i es but adequat e met hods exi st t o i mprove
4- 189
moni tori ng capaci t i es. A st art i ng point i s t o cri ti call y anal yze exi sti ng forest dat a and
moni tori ng capabil i ti es for t he purpose of syst emat i c est i mat i on and reporting usi ng t he
I PCC LULUCF GPG. Tabl e 4.2. 2 li st s sever al key exi st i ng dat a sources t hat ar e commonl y
consi dered useful .
Table 4 .2.2. Exampl es of i mport ant exi st ing dat a sources useful for est abl i shing
nat i onal REDD+ moni t ori ng.
Vari abl e Focus Exist ing records Exi st ing i nformat ion
Def or est at i on
Ar ea
changes
(act ivi t y
dat a)
For est r egr owt h
Ar chi ved sat el l i t e dat a & ai r phot os
Fi el d sur veys and f or est cover maps
M aps of f or est use and human
i nf r ast r uct ur es
M aps & r at es of def or est at i on
and / or f or est r egr owt h
Land use change maps
Nat i onal st at i st i cal dat a
Land use change
(def or est at i on)
Car bon st o ck change and
emi ssi o n/ ha est i mat es
Changes i n ar eas
r emai ni ng f or est s
Changes in
carbon
st ocks /
emission
fact ors
Di f f er ent C-pool s
(i . e. soi l s)
For est i nvent or y, si t e measur ement s
Per manent sampl e pl ot s, r esear ch si t es
For est / ecosyst em st r at i f i cat i ons
For est co ncessi ons/ har vest est i mat es
Vol ume t o car bo n co nver si on f act or s
Regi onal car bo n st ock dat a/ maps
Long-t er m measur ement s of
human i nduced car bo n st ock
changes
Biomass
burning
Emi ssi ons of
sever al GHG
Recor ds of f i r e event s ( i n-si t u)
Sat el l i t e dat a
Emi ssi on f act or measur ement s
Recor ds of ar eas under sl ash and bur n
cul t i vat i on
Bur nt ar ea map pr o duct s
Fi r e r egi me, ar ea, f r equency &
emi ssi o ns
Ancillary
(spat ial)
dat a
Dr i ver s & f act or s
of f or est changes
Topo gr aphi c maps
Fi el d sur veys
Census dat a
GI S- dat aset s on po pul at i on,
r oads, l and use, pl anni ng,
t opogr aphy, set t l ement s

The assessment of exi st i ng and requi red capaci ti es should independent l y consi der t he
di fferent I PCC vari abl es. I n case t here ar e no consi st ent t i mes seri es of hi st ori cal forest
area change dat a, t he count ry should consi der usi ng archi ved sat elli t e dat a and est abli sh
t he requi red monit oring capaci ti es. Forest i nvent ory dat a ar e current l y t he most common
dat a source for t he est i mat i on of changes i n forest carbon st ocks. However most of t he
exi st i ng and t radi ti onal forest invent ori es have not been desi gned for carbon st ock
assessment s and have li mi t ed use for t hi s purpose. I deall y and i n some cont rast t o
t radi ti onal i nvent ori es, t he desi gn for nat i onal carbon st ock i nvent ory shoul d consi der t he
following requi rement s:
 St rat ificat ion of forest ar ea: by carbon densi t y cl asses and rel evant human
act i vi ti es effect i ng forest carbon st ocks;
 Coverage: ful l nat ional cover age wi t h most det ail and accuracy requi red i n areas
of “ REDD+ rel evant act i vi ti es” ;
 Site measurement s: emphasi ze on measuring carbon st ocks, pot ent i all y in all
carbon pool s;
 Time: consi st ent and recurring measurement s of carbon st ock change, i .e. for
deforest at i on and in areas r emai ni ng as forest s (i .e. degr adat i on); and
 Uncert ainties: veri fi cat ion and consi derat i ons for independent int ernat i onal
revi ew.

4- 190
The invest ment s and pri ori t y set t ing for monit ori ng carbon st ock changes rel at ed t o
forest s, i n all carbon pool s (i .e. soil s, bi omass burning) may depend on how si gnifi cant
t he rel at ed human- induced changes ar e f or t he overall carbon budget and t he nat i onal
REDD+ i mpl ement at i on st rat egy ar e. For exampl e, i f t he count ry has no fire regi me and
no si gni fi cant emi ssi on from bi omass burning it i s not necessary t o devel op a rel at ed
moni tori ng. The moni t oring of carbon changes i n forest s remai ning as forest s ( bot h
increase and decr ease) i s general l y l ess ef fi cient t han f or t he case deforest at i on, i . e.
lower carbon st ock changes per ha versus hi gher moni toring cost s and, usuall y, lower
accur aci es. On t he ot her hand, moni t oring of forest degr adat i on i s i mport ant si nce t he
cumul at i ve emi ssi on can be si gnifi cant and updat ed dat a are r equired t o avoi d
di spl acement of emi ssi ons from reduced deforest at i on. A count ry should have
underst andi ng and regul arl y moni tor t he human processes causi ng loss or i ncreases i n
forest carbon st ocks, i .e. t hrough a recurri ng assessment of degraded forest ar ea.
However, t he l evel of det ail and accuracy f or act ual carbon st ock changes shoul d be
hi gher for count ri es int erest ed i n cl ai mi ng credi t s for t hei r act i vi ti es ( i .e. reduci ng
emi ssi ons from forest degradat i on). I n t hi s case, t he est abli shing t he REDD+ moni t oring
syst em should put part i cul ar emphasi s in bui ldi ng t he required capaci ti es t hat usuall y
requi re l ong- t erm, ground- based measurement s. A si mil ar procedure maybe suggest ed
for the moni t oring of changes i n ot her carbon pool s. To dat e, very f ew devel oping
count ri es report dat a on soil carbon, even t hough emi ssi ons maybe si gni fi cant , i . e.
emi ssi ons from deforest ed or degraded peat l ands. I f t he soil carbon pool i s to be
incl uded i n count ry st rat egy t o recei ve credi t s for reduci ng emi ssi ons from forest l and,
t he rel at ed moni toring component shoul d be est abl i shed from t he beginning to provi de
t he r equi red accuracy for est i mat i on and report ing. For ot her count ri es, t he moni t oring
of emi ssi ons and removal s from al l carbon pool s and all cat egori es i s cert ai nl y
encouraged i n t he longer- t erm but maybe of lower priori t y and requi re small er amount
of resources i n t he readi ness phase. Thi s approach i s support ed by t he current I PCC
gui dance whi ch already all ow a cost -effi ci ent use of avai l abl e resources, e.g. t he concept
of key cat egori es
73
i ndi cat e t hat pri ori t y shoul d be gi ven t o t he most rel evant cat egori es
and/ or carbon pool s. Thi s fl exi bilit y can be furt her expanded by t he concept of
conservat i veness
74
” .
The anal ysi s and use of exi sting dat a i s most import ant for t he est i mat i on of hi st ori cal
changes and for t he est abli shment of t he reference emi ssi on l evel s. Li mi t at i ons of
exi st i ng dat a and informat ion may const rai n t he accuracy and compl et eness of t he
LULUCF i nvent ory for hi st ori cal periods, i .e. for l ack of ground dat a. I n case of uncert ain
or i ncompl et e dat a, t he est i mat es shoul d follow, as much as possi bl e, t he I PCC reporting
pri nci pl es and shoul d be t reat ed conservat ivel y wi t h moti vat i on t o i mprove t he
moni tori ng over t i me. The moni t oring and est imat i on act i vi ti es for t he hi st ori cal period
should include a process for building t he requi red capaci ti es wi t hin t he count ry t o
est abl i sh t he moni toring, est i mat ion and reporti ng procedures as a l ong- t erm t er m
syst em. Consi st ency bet ween t he est i mat es for t he r efer ence l evel and t hose produced
in t he assessment peri od i s essent i al . The exi st ing gaps and known uncert ainti es of t he
hi st ori cal dat a should be addressed i n fut ure monit ori ng effort s as par t of a cont inuous
i mprovement and t rai ning program.


73
Key cat egories are sources/ sinks of emissions/ removals t hat cont ribut e subst ant ially t o t he
overall nat ional invent ory ( in t erms of absolut e level and/ or t rend). According t o t he I PCC-GPG,
key cat egories should be est imat ed at higher Tiers (2 or 3) , which means t hat Tier 1 is allowed f or
non- key cat egor ies.
74
Conservat iveness is a concept used by t he provisions of t he Kyot o Prot ocol ( UNFCCC 2006) . I n
t he REDD+ cont ext , conservat iveness may mean t hat - when complet eness or accuracy of
est imat es cannot be achieved - t he reduct ion of net emissions should not be overest imat ed, or at
least t he risk of overest imat ion should be minimized (see sect ion 2. 8)
4- 191
4.3 CAPACI TY GAPS AND COST I MPLI CATI ONS
There are several cat egori es of cost s t o be considered for count ri es t o engage i n REDD+
incl uding opport uni t y cost s, and cost s for t ransact i ons and i mpl ement at i on. Moni toring,
reporti ng and veri fi cat ion of forest carbon are pr i maril y refl ect ed i n the t ransact i on cost s,
i .e. proof t hat a REDD+ act i vi t y has i ndeed achi eved a cert ai n amount of emi ssion
reduct i ons and i s sui t abl e for compensat ion. The resources needed for monit ori ng are
one small er component consi deri ng all cost f act ors for REDD+ i mpl ement at i on in t he
long-t erm, but are r at her si gni fi cant i n the readiness phase since many count ri es requi re
t he devel opment of basi c capaci t i es.
Est i mat i ng t he cost s for REDD+ monit oring has t o consi der several i ssues t hat depend
on t he speci fi c count ry ci rcumst ances. Fi rst , t here i s a difference i n t he cost st ruct ure for
devel opi ng and est abli shing a moni toring syst em ver sus t he oper at ional i mpl ement at i on.
For count ri es st art i ng wi t h li mi t ed capabili ti es si gni fi cantl y l arger amount of resources
are ant i ci pat ed, part i cul arl y for moni toring hi st ori cal forest changes and for t he
est abl i shment of t he refer ence l evel and near t erm moni t ori ng effort s. I n some cases i t
i s assumed t hat readi ness cost s r equi re si gnificant publi c i nvest ment and int ernat i onal
support , whil e al l i mpl ement at ion cost s ( i ncludi ng t he veri fi cat ion of compli ance) shoul d
be i deall y cover ed by carbon revenues ( Hoar e et al ., 2008) . Secondl y, di fferent
component s of t he moni t ori ng syst em, i .e. forest ar ea change moni t oring and
measurement s of carbon st ock change have di fferent cost i mpli cat i ons depending on
what met hod i s used and whi ch accuracy i s t o be achi eved. For exampl e, an annual
forest area change moni toring combined wi t h Ti er 3 carbon st ock change maybe more
cost l y but l ess accurat e t han using 5- year i nt erval s for moni t oring forest ar ea and carbon
st ock change on Ti er 2 l evel .
Speci fi c informat i on on t he cost s for REDD+ are rar e but experi ences of est i mat es i n t hi s
sect ion i s based on a number of resources:
 Operat ional nat ional forest moni t oring exampl es (i . e. from I ndi a and Brazi l ) .
 Ongoing forest moni t ori ng programs i nvol ving devel opi ng count ri es ranging from
local case st udi es t o gl obal assessment programs ( i .e. from FAO act i vi ti es) .
 I dea not es and proposal s submi t t ed by count ri es t o t he Worl dbank Forest Carbon
Part nershi p Facili t y ( FCPF) .
 Sci enti fi c li t erat ure document ed i n REDD-rel at ed moni tori ng and case st udi es.
 Expert est i mat es and consi derat i ons document ed i n report s ( i . e. consul t ant
report s) and int ernat i onal organi zat i ons and panel s.
There ar e number of l ump sum cost predi ct ions for REDD+ moni t ori ng. For exampl e,
Hoare et al . ( 2008) est i mat e bet ween 1- 6 Mi ll US$ for t he est abli shment of t he REL and
t he moni t ori ng syst em per count ry. Thi s assessment i s l argel y based on work by
Hardcast l e et al . ( 2008) t hat est i mat e cost for moni t oring for different count ry
ci rcumst ances buil ding on knowl edge of exi st ing capaci t i es. Oper at i onal moni tori ng cost s
are oft en provi ded as per area uni t numbers ( i. e. see exampl es from I ndi a and Brazil ) .
Building upon t hese effort s, t he ai m of t he following sect i on i s not t o provi de speci fi c
number since t hey l argel y vary based on count ry ci rcumst ances and REDD+ obj ect i ves.
4. 3. 1 I mportance of moni t ori ng for est ablishing a nat ional REDD+
inf rast ruct ure
Cost s for moni t oring and t echni cal capaci t y devel opment wi ll be an i mport ant component
in t he REDD+ readi ness phase. Underst andi ng t he hi st ori cal forest change processes i s
fundament al for developing a nat i onal REDD+ st rat egy based on current forest and
envi ronment al l egi sl at ion. Est abli shing a nat ional reference scenari o for emi ssi ons from
deforest at i on and forest degr adat i on based on avai l abl e hi st ori cal dat a i s an i niti al
requi rement . Thi s effort invol ves capaci t y devel opment t o est abl i sh a sust ai ned nat ional
4- 192
syst em for moni toring and reporting emi ssi ons and removal s from forest l and i n t he
long-t erm.
The di st ri buti on of cost s f or moni toring act i vi ti es ( done by t he count ry i t sel f or wi t h hel p
from int ernat i onal part ners), and cost s for capaci t y devel opment are rel at ed t o t he
exi st i ng count ry capaci ti es and count ry si ze. Figure 4.3.1 shows an assessment of 15
Readi ness Pl an I dea Not es ( R- Pins) submi t t ed t o t he Worl d Bank Forest Carbon
Part nershi p Faci lit y t hat have provi ded budget det ail s. The combined cost of moni t oring
and capaci t y building act i vi ti es r anges from 2- 25 US$ per sq km depending on t he l and
area and exi st i ng capabil i ti es. Count ri es wi t h l ow exi sti ng capaci t y indi cat ed more
requi red resources, wi t h a l arger proportion t owards capaci t y building. The moni t oring
effi ci ency for small count ri es i s usuall y challenged si nce an ini ti al amount of base
invest ment s ar e equal l y required for al l count ry si zes, i .e. a mi ni mum st andard for
operat i onal i nst i tut i onal capaci t i es, t echni cal and human resources, and expert i se i n
reporti ng.
Figure 4.3. 1. I ndi cat i ve cost s per km
2
for moni toring and capaci t y buil ding as part of
t he proposed Worl dbank FCPF readi ness act i vi ti es. The graph shows medi an val ues
based on 15 R-PI N’s separat ed by count ry capaci ti es and l and area. Count ri es wer e
consi dered t o have l ow capaci ti es i f t hey di d not report ei t her forest ar ea change based
on mul ti - dat e dat a or dat a on forest carbon st ocks for t he l ast FAO FRA ( FAO, 2006) .


4. 3. 2 Planni ng and design
Pl anning and desi gn act i vi ti es should resul t in a nat i onal REDD+ moni toring framework
(i ncl . defi ni tions, moni t oring vari abl es, i nsti t utional set t i ng et c.) , and a pl an for capaci t y
devel opment and l ong- t erm i mprovement and t he est i mat ion anti ci pat ed cost s.
Fundament al for t hi s process i s t he underst andi ng of rel evant nat i onal act ors about t he
int ernat ional UNFCCC negot i at ions on REDD, t he st at us of t he nat ional REDD+
i mpl ement at i on act i vi ti es, knowl edge in t he appli cat i on of I PCC LULUCF good pract i ce
gui dance and expert i se i n t errest ri al carbon dynami cs and rel at ed human- induced
changes. Resources for rel at ed t rai ning and capaci t y building are requi red t o part i ci pat e
in or organi ze dedi cat ed nat i onal or regional workshops or t o hi re i nt ernat i onal
consul t ant s or exper t s. Some i ni ti ati ves ar e al ready offeri ng capaci t y devel opment
workshops t o count ri es for t hi s purpose, i .e. as part of GTZ’s CD- REDD+ program
( ht t p: / / unfccc.i nt / fi l es/ met hods_sci ence/ redd/ t echni cal _assi st ance/ t r aining_act i vi ti es/ ap
pli cat i on/ pdf/ cd_redd_concept _not e.pdf) .
4- 193
4. 3. 3 I nstit utional capaci t ies
Ef fi ci ent and sust ai nabl e organi zat ional capaci t y i s requi red as t he count ry moves i nt o
t he Readi ness phase, t o est abli sh and operat e a nat i onal forest carbon MRV program.
Thus, t her e ar e some r equi rement s for a nat ional inst i tuti onal framework from an MRV
perspect i ve:
 Coordination - A hi gh-l evel nat ional coordinat ion and cooperat i on mechani sm
li nking bet ween forest carbon MRV and nat ional pol icy ( for REDD+ ) , al so
speci fyi ng and overseei ng t he di fferent rol es and responsi bi liti es, and co- benefi t s
wi th ot her moni t oring effort s ( e.g., “ t he Nat i onal Syst em” ) .
 Measurement and monit oring - prot ocol s and t echni cal uni t s for acqui ring and
anal yzi ng of di fferent t ypes of forest carbon rel at ed dat a on t he nat i onal and sub-
nat i onal l evel .
 Report ing - a uni t responsi bl e for col lect ing all rel evant dat a in cent ral dat abase
for nat i onal est i mat i on and i nt ernat ional reporting using t he I PCC GPG, i ncluding
uncert ai nt y assessment and i mprovement pl an.
 Verifi cat ion - an independent ext r a- nat i onal framework for veri fyi ng t he long-
t erm effect i veness of REDD+ act i ons on di fferent l evel s and by di fferent act ors.
Diff erent act ors and sect ors need t o be worki ng i n coordinat i on t o make t he moni toring
syst em effi ci ent i n t he l ong- t erm. Sust ai nabil i t y consi derat ions are an i mport ant
pri nci pl e i n set t i ng up an i nsti t utional framework f or an MRV syst em. At a mi ni mum, a
count ry should consi der mai nt aini ng t he following inst i t utions wi t h cl ear defi nition of
rol es and responsi bi liti es:
 Nat ional coordinat ion and st eeri ng body or advi sory board, including a nat ional
carbon regi st ry.
 Cent ral carbon moni t oring and reporti ng aut hori t y.
 Forest carbon measurement and moni toring i mpl ement at i on uni t s.
The resources requi red for set t i ng up and maint ai ning insti t utional capaci ti es depend on
sever al fact ors. Some count ri es may perform most of t he acqui si t ion, processi ng and
anal ysi s of dat a t hrough t hei r agenci es or cent rali zed uni t s; others may deci de t o buil d
upon out si de part ner s (i .e. cont ract ors, local communi ti es or regi onal cent er s) , or
invol ve communi ti es.
I t i s i mport ant t o not e t hat t he i nst i tutional framework needs t o li nk MRV of act ions and
MRV of support . Any compensat i on for REDD+ act i ons shoul d be bound to a way of
measuring the posi t i ve i mpact in t he long- t erm for bot h act i ons and support . A speci fi c
sub-nat i onal i mpl ement at i on act i vi t y will need t o be assessed i n t erms of t he amount of
forest carbon preserved ( measurement ) , provi de t hi s dat a t o t he nat i onal l evel so i t can
be i ncluded i n t he nat ional reporting syst em, and will need t o be veri fi ed in t erms of
l eakage ( t hrough syst emat i c nat ional moni t ori ng) , and permanence ( l ong- t erm of
assessment of compli ance) . The i nsti t utional framework for MRV of support should be
di rect l y linked t o t hese r equi rement s, so any compensat i on t ransact i ons would provi de
incent i ves t o al l act ors and r efl ect t he di f ferent rol es and responsi bilit i es wi t hin t he
count ry. Thus, t he nat ional i nst i t utional i nfrast ruct ure needs t o provi de t he foundati on
for count ri es t o be incl usi ve and effect i ve in set t i ng up t hei r REDD+ MRV and consi der
t he di verse set of needs and requi rement s:
Efficiency - using t ranspar ent , consi st ent and cost - effect i ve dat a sources and
procedures, set s up an inst i t utional i nfrast ruct ure and est abl i shes sust ained capaci ti es
wi thin t he count ry t hat meet i t s nat i onal and int ernat i onal REDD+ requi rement s and
enabl es t o report forest carbon changes using t he I PCC GPG in t he long- t erm.
Effect iveness - support s and i s dri ven by t he development and i mpl ement at i on of a
nat i onal REDD+ poli cy and i t s priori t y areas of act i on.
4- 194
Equit y - i nt egrat es l ocal measurement s, nat ional -l evel monit oring est i mat i on and
int ernat ional gui dance, and support s i ndependent i nt ernat ional revi ew, t o ensure
part i ci pat ion and t ransparency among different act ors i nvol ved.
The si ze and amount of resources required for set t i ng up and maint ai ning insti t uti onal
capaci t i es depend on sever al f act ors. Some count ri es will perf orm most of t he
acqui si ti on, processi ng, and anal ysi s of dat a by t hei r agenci es or cent rali zed uni t s;
ot hers may deci de t o build upon out si de part ners ( i .e. cont ract ors, local communi ti es or
regional cent ers) . Al t hough a mi ni mum amount of i nsti t utional capaci ti es i s requi red
even for small count ri es, l arger count ri es wi ll need t o i nvest i n a more compl ex and more
expensi ve organi zat i on st ruct ure.
4. 3. 4 Cost factors for moni tori ng change i n forest area
Fundament al requi rement s of nat i onal moni toring syst ems are t hat t hey measur e
changes t hroughout al l forest ed area, use consist ent met hodologi es at r epeat ed int erval s
t o obt ai n accurat e r esul t s, and verify resul t s wi t h ground-based or ver y hi gh quali t y
observat ions. The onl y pract i cal approach for such moni t oring syst ems i s t hrough
int erpret at i on of remot el y sensed dat a support ed by ground- based observat i ons. The use
fi el d survey and i nvent ory t ype dat a for nat ional l evel est i mat i on of act i vi t y i s performed
by sever al Annex I Part i es (Achard et al . , 2008) . However, t he use of sat ell it e remot e
sensi ng observat i ons (in combi nat i on wi t h fi el d observat i ons for cali brat i on and
vali dat i on) for consi st ent and effi ci ent monit oring of forest ar ea change usi ng Approach 3
of t he I PCC GPG can be assumed t o be t he most common option for REDD+ act i vi ti es i n
devel opi ng count ri es; in part i cul ar for count ri es wi th limi t ed i nformat i on for t he hi stori cal
period.
The i mpl ement at i on of t he sat ellit e- based monit oring syst em incl udes a number of cost
fact ors:
 Sat ellit e dat a i ncludi ng dat a access and processing
 Soft / Hardwar e and offi ce resources ( i ncl . sat el lite dat a archi ve)
 Human resources for dat a int erpret at i on and anal ysi s
- Moni toring i n readi ness phase
- Operat ional moni tori ng
 Accuracy assessment
 Regi onal cooperat i on
For count ri es wi thout exi sti ng operat i onal capaci ti es t he cost s f or devel oping t he
requi red human capaci ti es wil l need t o be consi dered. I n t he est abli shment phase, t he
work of nat i onal and i nt ernat i onal expert s i ncludes t he foll owing act i vi ti es:
 Assessment and best use of exi st ing observat ions and informat i on.
 Speci fy a met hodol ogy and operat i onal i mpl ement at i on framework for moni t oring
forest ar ea change on a nat ional l evel .
 Perform anal ysi s of hi stori cal sat ell i t e dat a for est abli shing reference emi ssi on
l evel s.
 Devel op underst anding of areas affect ed by forest degr adat i on and provi de
assessment on how t o monit or rel evant forest degr adat i on processes.
 I f required, set up syst em for real - t i me deforest at i on moni t oring (i .e. i ncluding
det ect i on of forest fi res and areas burnt ) .
 Compl et e recrui t ment and provi de t rai ning t o nat i onal t eam t o perform
moni tori ng act i vi ti es.
 Compl et e an accur acy and error anal ysi s for est imat es from t he hi st ori cal peri od.
4- 195
 Perform a t est run of t he operat ional forest ar ea change moni t oring syst em.
Once a moni t oring syst em i s consoli dat ed i n t he readi ness phase, t he cont i nuous
moni tori ng operat i on produces annual operat i onal cost s for t he di fferent component s of
t he syst em ment ioned i n Tabl e 4.2.1. For exampl e, i f a count ry deci des t o moni t or
forest ar ea change usi ng i t s own resources and capaci ti es t he annual cost for human
resources maybe on t he order 3 t o 4 ti mes small er t han for t he est abli shment phase
( Hardcast l e et al . 2008) .
The resources r equi red f or operat i onal moni toring depend on t he si ze of t he area t o be
mapped each year and t he t hemat i c det ail and accur acy t o be provi ded. I n general , t he
small est i mpl ement at i on uni t of t hree skil l ed t echni ci ans should be suffi ci ent t o perform
all operat i ons for t he consi st ent and t r anspar ent moni tori ng of forest area change for
small t o medi um count ry si zes i n 2- t o 3- year t ime i nt erval s. Cost s for dat a and human
resources wil l increase i f an annual forest ar ea change moni toring int erval i s performed.
4. 3. 5 Cost factors for moni tori ng change i n carbon st ocks
Est i mat es of carbon st ocks in aboveground biomass of t r ees are frequent l y obt ai ned by
count ri es from various sources ( Tabl e 4. 2.1) , and for ot her forest carbon pool s defaul t
dat a ( for use wi th Ti er 1 approach) provi ded by in t he I PCC good pract i ce gui dance for
LULUCF ar e normall y used.
Growi ng st ock vol ume col l ect ed i n convent i onal forest i nvent ori es can be used t o
produce biomass values usi ng met hods in the I PCC good pract i ce gui dance for LULUCF or
ot her more speci fi c met hods proposed by some aut hors i n line wi th t hem. The
st r at i fi cat i on by f orest t ypes and management pract i ces, for exampl e, mat ure f orest ,
int ensel y l ogged, sel ect i vel y logged, fall ow, coul d hel p t o achi eve more accurat e and
preci se r esul t s. Many devel oping count ri es use some count ry- speci fi c i nvent ory dat a t o
est i mat e carbon st ocks of forest s ( but oft en, t hey use fact ors from t he I PCC t o convert
vol ume t o biomass) ; t hi s coul d be seen t o be equi val ent t o a low l evel Ti er 2 for emi ssion
fact ors as defi ned in the I PCC good pract i ce guidance for LULUCF.
However, convent i onal forest i nvent ori es are oft en done i n forest s deemed t o be
product i ve for ti mber har vest ing, oft en do not incl ude forest s t hat have li t tl e commerci al
t i mber, and measurement s may have not been st r at i fi ed and acqui red for carbon st ock
assessment s. Al so, as Tabl e 4.2.1 shows, many invent ori es ar e ol d and out of dat e and
may not be t he forest s undergoing deforest at i on.
Compil at ion of dat a from ecologi cal or ot her permanent sampl e plot s may provi de
est i mat es of carbon st ocks for di ff erent forest t ypes but ar e subj ect t o t he desi gn of
part i cul ar sci ent i fi c st udi es and t hus t end t o produce unrel i abl e est i mat es over l arge
forest ar eas.
Before i ni ti ati ng a program t o moni tor carbon st ocks of l and cover cl asses, cert ai n
deci sions will need t o be made concerning t he foll owing key f act ors t hat di rect l y i mpact
t he cost of i mpl ement i ng a moni toring syst em:
 What l evel of accuracy and preci si on i s t o be at t ai ned—t he hi gher t he t arget ed
accur acy and preci si on (or lower uncert ai nt y) of est i mat es of carbon st ocks t he
hi gher t he cost t o moni tor.
 How t o st r at i fy forest l ands—st r at i fi cat i on i nto rel at i vel y homogeneous uni t s of
l and wi th respect t o carbon st ocks and t hei r dynami cs l owers t he cost as i t
reduces t he number of sampl e plot s.
 Whi ch carbon pool s to i ncl ude—t he more carbon pool s incl uded t he hi gher t he
cost .
 At what t i me i nt erval s shoul d carbon st ocks i n speci fi c areas be moni t ored over
t i me; t he short er t he t i me int erval , t he hi gher t he cost and speci fi c areas t arget ed
for REDD+ i mpl ement at i on act i vi t i es may requi re more frequent measurement s.
4- 196
For est i mat i on of carbon st ocks on t he l and, t here i s a need for sampling rat her t han
at t empt t o measure everyt hi ng noti ng that sampling i s t he process by whi ch a subset i s
st udi ed t o allow general i zat i ons t o be made about t he whol e popul ati on or area of
int erest . The val ues at t ai ned from measuring a sampl e are an est i mat i on of t he
equi val ent val ue for t he ent i re area or popul at i on. St at i st i cs provi de us wi th some i dea
of how close t he est i mat ion i s to reali t y and t herefore how cert ai n or uncert ain t he
est i mat es are.
The accur acy and preci sion of ground-based measurement s depend on t he met hods
empl oyed and t he frequency of coll ect ion. I f i nsuffi ci ent measurement effort i s
expended, t hen t he resul t s wi ll most li kel y be impreci se. I n addi tion, est i mat es can be
affect ed by sampling errors, assessment errors, cl assi fi cat i on errors in remot e sensi ng
i magery and model errors t hat propagat e t hrough t o t he final est i mat i on.
Tot al moni toring cost s are dependent on a number of fi xed and vari abl e cost s. Cost s
t hat var y wi t h t he number of sampl es t aken ar e vari abl e cost s, for exampl e, l abor i s a
vari abl e cost because expendi t ure on l abor vari es wi t h t he number of sampl e plot s
requi red. Fi xed cost s do not vary wi t h t he number of sampl e plot s t aken. The t ot al cost
of a si ngl e measurement event i s t he sum of vari abl e and fi xed cost s.
There are sever al vari abl e cost s associ at ed t o ground based sampling in forest t hat coul d
incl ude or depend on:
a) l abor requi red whi ch depends on sampl ing si ze;
b) equi pment use and rent al ;
c) communi cat i on equi pment use and rent al ;
d) food and accommodat i on;
e) fi el d suppli es for coll ect ing fi el d dat a; and
f) t ransport at i on and anal ysi s cost s of any fi el d sampl es ( e.g. bi omass sampl es) .
Vari abl e cost s l i st ed in cat egori es (a) t o ( d) i n paragraph above wil l vary wi t h t he
number of sampl es requi red; t he t i me t aken t o col l ect each sampl e and t he t i me needed
t o t ravel from one sampl e si t e t o anot her ( e.g. affect ed by t he si ze and spat i al
di st ri bution of t he area being conti guous or non-contiguous) , as wel l as, by t he number
of forest carbon pool s requi red. These ar e t he maj or fact ors expect ed t o infl uence
overall sampli ng ti me. At a nat i onal scal e, i t i s li kel y t hat t r avel ti me bet ween plot s
coul d be as l ong as or longer t han t he act ual ti me t o col l ect all measurement s i n a pl ot .
Cost s li st ed i n sub-bul l et s ( e) and ( f) ar e only dependent on t he number of sampl es
requi red.
The cost f or deri ving est i mat es of forest carbon st ocks based on fi el d measurement s and
sampl ing depends on t he t arget ed preci sion l evel . The higher t he l evel of preci sion the
more plot s are needed, si mi l ar preci si on may r equi re more or l ess sampl es depending on
t he vari abili t y of t he carbon st ocks i n t he plot . A measure of t he vari abil i t y commonl y
used i s t he coeffi ci ent of vari at i on of t he carbon st ock est i mat es, t he hi gher t he
coeffi ci ent of vari at i on t he more vari abl e t he st ocks and t he more pl ot s needed t o
achi eve t he same l evel of preci sion.
St rat i fi cat ion of forest cover can increase t he accur acy and preci si on of t he measuri ng
and moni tori ng i n a cost - ef fect i ve manner ( see sect i on 2.2) . Carbon st ocks may var y
subst ant i all y among f orest t ypes depending on physi cal fact ors ( e.g., cl i mat e t ypes,
preci pi t at i on regi me, t emper at ure, soil t ype, and t opography) , biologi cal fact ors ( t r ee
speci es composi ti on, st and age, st and densi t y) and ant hropogeni c fact ors ( e.g.
di st urbance hi st ory and logging int ensi t y) .
4. 3. 6 Spat ial dat a i nf rast ruct ure, access and repor t ing procedures
A cent ral i zed spat i al dat a i nfrast ruct ure shoul d be est abli shed t o gat her, st ore, ar chi ve,
and anal yze all requi red dat a for t he nat i onal report i ng. Thi s requi res resources t o
4- 197
est abl i sh and mai nt ai n a cent rali zed dat abase and informat ion syst em i nt egrat i ng all
requi red i nformat i on for LULUCF. There i s need t o est abli sh a dat a i nfrast ruct ure, i ncl .
informat i on t echnology ( sui t abl e hard/ soft war e) , and for human resources t o generat e,
mani pul at e, appl y, and int erpret t he dat a, as well as capabil i t y t o perform t he r eport ing
and accounting using t he UNFCCC gui delines. There should al so be consi derat i on of dat a
access procedures for ( spat i all y expli ci t ) i nformat ion in t ransparent form.

4.4 LI NKI NG MONI TORI NG AND POLI CY DEVELOPMENT
REDD+ assumes t hat any change i n t he forest carbon st ocks from direct or indi rect
human act i vi ti es has an i mpact on t he cli mat e and shoul d be account ed for. Consi dering
t he vari et y of count ry ci rcumst ances di fferent emphasi s wi ll be gi ven t o t he vari ous
processes i mpact i ng forest carbon (i .e. l and use change causi ng deforest at ion versus
sel ect i ve loggi ng or shifti ng cul ti vat ion) i n bot h t he cont ext of poli cy and MRV. The
di fference bet ween t he nat i onal and int ernat i onal REDD+ MRV requirement s and t he
current capaci t y st at us i s di verse. Count ry speci fi c capaci t y devel opment pat hways wi ll
need t o be based on t hese requi rement s t hat will be furt her el aborat ed i n the next
sect ions.
Fi gure 4.4.1 gi ves a concept ual represent at i on of t he range of act i ons t hat a count ry
mi ght i nclude i n a nat i onal REDD+ st rat egy, and shows t he generi c dat a r equi rement s
for each of t hese. Count ri es may st art wi t h onl y a few REDD+ act i vi ti es, t hose whi ch are
easi est t o set up or most li kel y t o achi eve success. Some part s of t he forest may be
sel ect ed f or int ervent i ons desi gned t o reduce degr adat i on, and st i mul at e f orest
enhancement . Ot hers may be t arget ed for reduci ng deforest at i on or carbon
conservat ion. Thi s means t hat a mosai c of approaches may emerge as sket ched f or a
hypot het i cal count ry in Fi gure 3.5.7. I n thi s, t he bl ue arrows indi cat e possi bl e shift s i n
area whi ch need t o be moni tored over t i me, whil e t he red boxes i ndi cat e what needs t o
be measured wi t hi n each of t he cat egori es. I t is vi t al t hat t he connect i on bet ween MRV
requi rement s and t he speci fi c choi ce of parti cular act i vi ti es under REDD+ i s underst ood
and t hat t hese t wo el ement s devel op t oget her under t he nat ional REDD+ pl an.

4- 198
Figure 4 .4.1. Different t ypes of l and, t hei r potent i al rol e i n a nati onal REDD+ program
and t he associ at ed MRV t asks and obj ect i ves.



Each count ry will have t o develop i t s MRV syst em t o meet i t s speci fi c package of REDD+
act i ons, whil e at t he same t i me t ail oring i t s select i on of act i ons t o what i s feasi bl e for i t
as r egards MRV. However, some general suggest i ons and gui dance can be provi ded.
Fi gure 4.4.2 li st s a set of essent i al st eps each count ry has t o consi der i n evol vi ng t he
poli cy and t echni cal i ssues in conj unct ion. The phase of st rat egy devel opment and
readi ness maybe addr essed r at her qui ckl y if a count ry has a sui t abl e set of exi st ing dat a
and capaci t i es. I n cont rary, some count ri es may have t o fi rst deri ve i ni ti al dat aset s t o
provi de basi c underst anding t o what ext end dri vers are act i ve and what t hei r forest
carbon i mpact i s and how poli ci es can be defined and i mpl ement ed t o affect t he dri vers
and processes. Thus, MRV does i nclude a component of anal ysi s and assessment t hat i s
essent i al t o make use of t he acqui red dat a and informat ion in a poli cy cont ext , i .e., as
suggest ed i n t he t erm MARV ( Measurement , Assessment , Report i ng and Veri fi cat ion) .
Figure 4 .4.2. MRV obj ect i ves f or di fferent phase of REDD+ part i ci pat ion.


I nt ernat ional poli ci es and MRV concept s refl ect an emi ssi on- ori ent ed concept focusing on
carbon i mpact s. Nat ional pol i cy devel opment shoul d, however, t ake a more dri ver-
ori ent ed perspect i ve assumi ng t hat successful nat i onal pol ici es will need t o t arget t he
key causes and processes t hat al t er forest carbon on t he ground. For an MRV roadmap,
what i s i mport ant i s an underst andi ng of t he dri vers and processes act i ve, whet her
4- 199
suffi ci ent dat a ar e avai l abl e t o assess t hei r i mport ance ( carbon i mpact ), and what
poli ci es could posi ti vel y affect t he processes t o achi eve REDD+ obj ect i ves. The r esul t s
can be summari zed i n a framework suggest ed in Tabl e 4.4.1.
Table 4.4.1. Concept ual link bet ween nat i onal REDD+ poli cy opportuni ti es and
moni tori ng requi rement s based on assessment of processes affect i ng carbon st ocks.
Pr ocesses and
drivers t hat
affect f orest
car bon st ocks
Cur rent dat a and
monit oring
capacit ies
I mpor t ance
( carbon impact on
nat ional level)
Suggest ed act ivit y
t o fil l moni t ori ng
capaci t y/ dat a gap
REDD+
opport uni t ies &
ant icipat ed policies
t o encourage or
discour age pr ocess
Forest
conversi on f or
expansion of
agri cult ure
Sampl e- based
nat ional forest
invent or y for t wo
point s in t i me
Signi ficant areas
affect ed nat i onally
and l arge carbon
emissi ons per ha
Assessment using
remot e sensing-
based forest area
change and f or est
car bon invent or y
dat a
Pr ot ect i on of
exist ing f orest s and
use of non- f orest ed
l and for agri cult ure
Sel ect i ve l oggi ng
for t i mber and
fuel in nat ive
forest s
remai ni ng forest
Harvest est imat es,
and concessions
areas by
companies and
forest r y
depart ment
Signi ficant areas
affect ed and low
emissi on per ha
Gat her exist ing dat a
on area and har vest
dat a, convert t o
car bon emissions,
fur t her long- t erm
case st udies
Shift ing t owar ds
l ow impact l ogging
and sust ai nable
f orest management
Clear- fell and
select i ve
harvest ing i n
forest
plant at i ons
Harvest est imat es,
concessions areas
and growt h rat es
by companies and
forest r y
depart ment
Some areas
nat ionally, may act
as C- si nk or sour ce
depending on
previous land use
and har vest cycles
and i nt ensi t y
Gat her dat a on
nat ional level and
evaluat e dat a wit h
remot e sensing
assessment ,
conversi on of
exist ing est i mat es
int o carbon values
Encour age
A/ Ref orest at ion of
non- f orest ed land,
l ow impact
harvest ing and
sust ai nable forest
management
.
.
.


Thi s t ype of assessment wi ll hel p develop priori ti es i n t erms of bot h nat ional poli ci es and
moni tori ng requirement s ( indeed, t he deci si ons on nat i onal REDD+ st rat egi es needs t o
proceed i n paral l el wi th t he MRV procedures) . One of the most fundament al quest i ons i s
whet her suffi ci ent dat a are avai l abl e t o underst and t he recent forest carbon i mpact of
speci fi c processes or whet her furt her st udi es are r equi red i n order t o sel ect t hose act i ons
whi ch are li kel y t o be successf ul . The long- t erm MRV needs may t hen be defi ned i n
great est det ail and accur acy j ust f or t he dri vers and processes causi ng t he maj ori t y of
forest carbon st ock changes ( r at her t han t he t ot al pi ct ure) and t hese dri vers shoul d be
t he ones par t i cul arl y addressed in t he REDD+ st rat egy and i mpl ement at i on act i vi t i es. For
t hi s purpose, t he I PCC GPG provi des some fl exi bi li t y by focusing on “ key cat egori es” .
Key cat egori es are sources of emi ssi ons and removal s t hat cont ri but e subst ant i al l y t o the
overall nat i onal invent ory (i n t erms of absolut e l evel and/ or t rend) . Key cat egori es or
pool s shoul d be measured i n more det ai l and cert ai nt y and est i mat ed using higher Ti ers
( Ti er 2 or 3) , whi ch means t hat Ti er 1 ( I PCC defaul t dat a) maybe used f or non- key
cat egori es or pool s.

4- 200
Figure 4 .4.3. Fl owchart for scopi ng det ail of nat ional moni toring syst em l inking key
component s and requi red capaci ti es.



The act i vi ti es indi cat ed for t he r eadiness phase ( Fi gure 4. 4.3) incl ude acqui ri ng of
hi st ori cal dat a wi t h t he goal of achi evi ng a mini mum of an I PCC Ti er 2 nat ional carbon
moni tori ng, as wel l as provi di ng all dat a and informat i on needed f or est abli shi ng t he
refer ence l evel . Moni tori ng of hi st ori cal and fut ure changes in forest carbon should be
done on a conti nuous and consi st ent basi s. The hi st ori cal assessment woul d be a one-
t i me consol idat ed ef fort as part of t he readi ness phase. However, t he t ype and qual i t y of
moni tori ng dat a avail abl e for previous year s may be li mi t ed, i n parti cul ar wi t h respect t o
avail abl e fi el d dat a. The fut ure moni t oring may choose from di fferent opti ons and can
incorporat e t he speci fi c REDD+ requirement s.
Fi gure 4.4.3 provi des some gui dance on what capaci ti es may need t o be est abli shed for
t hi s purpose; assumi ng t hat Ti er 2 moni toring i n t he aboveground veget at i on carbon
pool for forest ar ea changes i s consi dered t o be t he mi ni mum requi rement . The l evel of
det ail for t he ot her component s depends on a number of f act ors t hat ar e count ry
speci fi c. Dependi ng whet her some carbon st ock changes ar e si gnifi cant ( key cat egory) or
if some act i vi ti es ar e part i cul ar t arget ed from t he REDD+ poli cy (i .e. shi f ting from
convent ional logging to sust ainabl e forest management ) more invest ment i n MRV
capaci t i es and resources ar e needed beyond t he mini mum requi rement .
A nat i onal REDD+ st rat egy needs t o encourage speci fi c local i mpl ement at ion act i ons. I n
t hi s cont ext , a nat i onal carbon monit oring syst em woul d refl ect more det ail and accuracy
in t hese act i on areas, and, more speci fi call y, a nat i onal est i mat i on and reporting syst em
needs t o i ncl ude sub- nat i onal or act i on area measurement pl ans. Thus, a sui t abl e
nat i onal moni tori ng st rat egy shoul d i nclude:
 A nati onal moni t oring, est i mat i on and accounti ng syst em and a sub- nat ional
measurement pl an addressi ng change in forest carbon and t he key dri vers of
change i n t hese ar eas.
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 A nat ional st rat i fi cat ion allowing all ( area based) REDD+ and REDD+
i mpl ement at i on act i vi ti es t o be measured wi t h a sui t abl e degr ee of cert ai nt y
( hi gher i nt ensi t y i n REDD+ and REDD+ act i on ar eas, l ower densi t y syst emat i c
moni tori ng in t he rest ) . Such a nat i onal st r at ifi cat i on may be based on f orest
carbon densi t y and on t ypes of human act i vi ti es and REDD+ int ervent ions.
 A syst em of sub- nat i onal reference l evel s - sui t abl e f or l arge count ri es ( e.g.
I ndonesi a) and rel at ed report ing and accounting for carbon bal ance, di spl acement
of emi ssions and permanence.
 A syst emat i c component t hat hel ps sub- nat i onal act i vi ti es t o show t hei r
effect i veness and t o underst and l eakage and addi tionali t y wi t hi n t he count ry. I t
would al so provi de a framework for continuous moni tori ng t o verif y permanence.
 Reference t o exi st i ng pil ot proj ect s, whi ch may be useful in:
- provi ding measurement s and i nformat i on on forest change processes;
- quant i fyi ng REDD/ REDD+ achi evement s ( e.g. t hrough cent rali zed carbon
regi st ry) ; and
- demonst r at i ng invol vement of communi ti es and key act ors.
Wi th regard t o pi lot proj ect s, i n sever al count ri es REDD+ demonst rat i on proj ect s have
al ready generat ed some experi ence and i t may be possi bl e t o draw l essons from t hese
regarding MRV. However, t here are consi der abl e differences bet ween proj ect and
nat i onal approaches. Fi rst l y, whi le t he dat a coll ect ed in associ at ion wi t h pilot proj ect s
may gi ve useful indi cat i ons of t he li kel y gai ns and l osses of carbon associ at ed wi t h
di fferent t ypes of management act i vi ti es, monit ori ng at proj ect l evel oft en brings hi gh
cost s r el at ed t o dealing wi th l eakage and addit ionali t y, and t o ot her t ransact i on cost s
invol ved; in a nat ional approach, apart from benefi t s of economi es of scal e, many of
t hese probl ems may be ci rcumvent ed. Secondl y, exi st i ng pilot proj ect s ar e l ocal and
of t en speci al i zed i n scope - for exampl e locat ed in areas wi t h li mi t ed conflict s ( e.g.
rel at ed t o l and t enure) or in areas of “ high-ri sk, hi gh-carbon” forest s - and addr essi ng
onl y a small number of dri vers. Broader issues t hat ar e i mport ant for REDD+
effect i veness ( e.g. r el at i ng t o nat i onal regulat ory frameworks, addressi ng l and use
poli cy, and invol ving t he agri cul ture and energy sect or) , ar e not t aken i nto account , nor
t he requi rement s of nat ional MRV syst ems and basel i nes. A pot ent i al i ssue i n up- scaling
from proj ect scal e t o a nat i onal syst em will be t o sol ve i ncompat i bili ti es bet ween exi st ing
defini tions of forest . I n part i cul ar in a number of count ri es, secondary and degr aded
woodl ands ar e not incl uded i n nati onal forest st at i st i cs. Under a REDD+ nat ional
accounti ng syst em, t hese di fferences woul d have t o be adj ust ed.

4.5 KEY REFERENCES FOR SECTI ON 4
Achard F, Gr assi G, Herold M, Teobal dell i M, Mollicone D ( 2008) The use of sat elli t e
remot e sensi ng in t he LULUCF sect or, Backgr ound paper request ed by t he I PCC
Expert Meet i ng t o consi der t he current I PCC gui dance on est i mat i ng emi ssi ons and
removal s of greenhouse gases from l and uses such as agri cul ture and forest ry.
GOFC-GOLD r eport seri es 33, www.fao. org/ gt os/ gofc-gol d/ seri es.ht ml .
FAO ( 2006) Gl obal Forest Resources Assessment 2005 – Progress t owards sust ainabl e
forest management . FAO Forest ry Paper 147. www.fao. org/ forest ry/ fr a2005
Hardcast l e PD, Bai rd D (2008) Capabil i t y and cost assessment of t he maj or f orest
nat i ons t o measure and moni t or t hei r forest car bon for Offi ce of Climat e Change. LTS
I nt ernat i onal , Peni cui ck, UK.
Hoare A, Legge T, Nussbaum R, Saunders J (2008) Est i mat i ng t he cost of buil ding
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ht t p: / / www.occ.gov. uk/ publi cat i ons/ index. ht m
Hol mgren P, Markl und LG, Saket M, Wil ki e ML (2007) Forest Moni t oring and Assessment
for Cli mat e Change Report ing: Part nershi ps, Capaci t y Bui lding and Deli very. Forest
Resources Assessment Working Paper 142. FAO, Rome. www.f ao.org/ forest r y/ f ra
UNFCCC ( 2008) Fi nanci al support provi ded by t he Gl obal Envi ronment Facili t y for the
preparat ion of nat i onal communi cat ions from Part i es not incl uded in Annex I t o t he
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