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RENEWABLE ENERGY GLOBAL MARKET

Status and predictions

Scope of the study

Definitions

Methodology

Sources

Chapitre I : Global Overview of energy and economic current situation & predictions through 2020

Dramatic growth of World Energy Consumption

Global economy current status : facing the global crisis

Governments acting to face the global crisis

Global growth prospects through 2009

Energy demand stakes : coal accounts for more than


than a quarter of global energy consumption

World primary energy consumption : More than 608.4 Quadrillion BTU forecasted by 2020

World electricity generation by 2020 : Renewables at 15.4%

Worldwide electricity production

Electricty generation : a transforming mix of primary fuels but coal will remain the first fuel with a 45% share by
2020

The Kyoto protocol current status

2008 : Preparing the After Kyoto Era

The Clean Development Mechanism Principle

The Clean Development Mechanism dominated by India

CDM Implementation

RE : the main CDM projects from any other technology

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China acocunting for 53% of expected CERs by 2012

80% of total CER will come from Asia to 2012

New international commitment : IRENA foundation

Energy financing chain

Global sustainable
inable energy investments

Global investment in Clean Energy 2004-2008


2004

Clean Energy investment by Asset Class 2007-2008


2007 in US $ bn

Clean Energy Investment in 2008

$ bn 45.9 investment in Clean Energy in Europe

43% of new investments went to wind energy in 2007


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$ bn52,9 Wind investment in 2008

2009 global investments in clean energy trends : caught by the financial crisis

2009 investments state of the art by finance group : public markets the weakest sector

Future of clean tech investments: « Green stimulus plans


lans may represent the light at the end of the tunnel for
clean energy companies but meanwhile the sector has been hit by an oncoming train » stated Michael Liebreich
chairman and CEO of NEF

RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES BARRIERS

Chapter II : Regional overview : Focus on main countries and Europe

EUROPE until 2020

20% of renewable energy by 2020 : European new target

RES Directive

National targets set by the directive

European Renewable electricity Installed capacity forecasts : 80 GW of electricity should come from wind energy
by 2010

European 2020 target : Photovoltaic energy the fastest progressing energy

Contribution of Renewables to electricity consumption by 2010 likely to double compared to 2005

Contribution of Renewables to Heat Consumption for the EU-27


EU by 2010 : Biomass the main energy

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By 2020 Biomass still the main emergy for heat but solar thermal is the most growing source in EU

Contribution of Renewables to Heat Consumption : 25% by 2020 an acheivable target

Contribution of RES to final consumption : the 20% target by 2020 is likely to be exceeded

RES Contribution to final energy consumption in Europe by sector : Heating and Cooling to overpass the
electricity sector

Focus on Germany :

German Reichstag, the first world’s parliamentary building to be powered by RE at 100%

The German RE new roadmap : 30% of the electricity to come from renewables by 2020

Biomass overtakes hydropower in electricity supply in Germany in 2008

Focus on Japan :

Japanese renewable energy state of art

Focus on the USA

RE APPLICATIONS : USA

America energy stakes

America Renewable Energies market by 2025

Focus on China

Chinese goal : 15% of RE by 2020

RE targets for China within the Renewable Energy Law

To meet 2020 targets : $251 bn are to be invested or $16.7 bn yearly

Chinese RE stakes

Focus on India

10% of Indian energy mix to come from RE by 2032

Indian Energy stakes

India wants to develop RE

Almost 125,000 villages without electricity to be provided by 2012

Indian RE Targets for 2007-2012

Indian investments opportunity for the 2007-2012


2007 plan up to US$8.96 bn

India aims to easing the administrative procedures to support the RE development

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Indian RE opportunities in the coming 5 years

Focus on Brazil

Brazil : the largest RE market

Electricity generation by fuel in Brazil : Renewables the main energy electricity generation sources

Renewables share in Brazilian electricity generation down to 76.9% by 2020

Chapter III : Solar technology

III. 1 GLOBAL PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET : 2008 reached 15 GW of total installed capacity

Global
al cumulative PV market 2005-2008
2005

Global annual PV market : Spain dominates the market

Regional
nal Distribution of annual PV market in 2008 : Europe has a 81% share of market

PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET : strengths and weaknesses

SOLAR ENERGY

PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY

PV MARKET KEY DRIVERS

Global PV market

Global PV market saw a dramatic growth in 2008 reaching 14,730 MW of cumulative installed capacity

Global PV market forecasts to 2013

Global PV market forecasts in annual capacity by 2013 : Germany and USA to lead the market

Global cumulative PV capacity 2009-2013


2009 : More than 22 GW by 2013

Global PV current production and planned production capacities

Lifecycle of a PV system

Cell technology shares in 2007

Module and cell efficiences

PV Applications in 2007

Top 5 PV country
ountry by Total installed capacity in 2007

Top 5 markets in 2008 by cumulative installed capacity : Germany leads the market

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Global PV market 2008 : more than 14 GW cumulative installed capacity

Regional and national share of global PV cell production 2007

PV production Capacity

Regional and technology distribution of the thin film productionn capacity

Top10 PV cell producers

EU PV market : 81% of the global market in 2008

EU PV market : drivers and barriers

PV components production capacities by 2010

EU policy Framework

Share of on-grid and off-grid


grid applications installed in the total cumulative capacity in EU 2007

Market share of the different applications installed in the EU during 2007

EU PV market

EU PV market

Focus on Germany :

German PV market

German PV market : drivers and barriers

German solar policy framework

Germany PV applications 2007

German PV market

Focus on Spain :

Spanish PV market

Spanish policy framework

Focus on France :

French PV market

French PV market : Drivers and barriers

French PV market : policy framework

French PV market by application

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Focus on Italy :

Italian PV market :

Italian PV market : policy framework

Italian PV market : drivers and barriers

Italian public budgets for PV market and activities

US PV market

US PV Maket : drivers and barriers

US PV policy framework

States Leading Solar Energy Development

Focus on Canada :

Canadian PV market

Canadian policy framework

Canadian PV market

Ontario’s Pv market

Focus on Japan :

Japanese PV market

Japanese PV market : drivers and barriers

Japanese policy framework

Japanese PV market

Japanese Public budget for PV market

Focus on China :

Chinese PV market

Chinese PV market : drivers and barriers

Chinese policy framework

Chinese PV market projections low target

Chinese PV market projections high target

Focus on India :

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Indian PV market

Solar Energy in India

Indian policy framework

Indian PV projects

Indian PV projects

Focus on Australia :

Australian PV market

Australian PV market : drivers and barriers

Australian policy framework

Australian Public budgets for R&D programmes and market incentives 2007

Cumulative installed PV power in Australia

III.2 Global solar thermal market

Global Solar Thermal installed capacity

Total capacity of flat-plate


plate and evacuated tube collectors by world
world economic region (MWth) 2006

Total capacity of unglazed water collectors in operation by world economic region (MWth) 2006

Distribution of the worldwide capacity in operation in 2006

Focus on the USA :

USA Solar heat and power market : 110 GW of new capacity


capac by 2016

Focus on EU :

EU Solar Thermal market

EU solar thermal market

EU solar thermal market

EU solar thermal market : a 45-50%


50% increase in 2008

Current largest solar heating plants in Europe connected to district heating networks

Solar thermal European vision through 2020

Solar thermal a dynamic European industry : 220,000 jobs predicted by 2020

EU solar thermal market : drivers and barriers

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Focus on Germany :

German Solar Thermal market

Focus on Austria :

Austrian Solar thermal market

Focus on Spain :

Spanish solar thermal market

Focus on France :

French solar thermal market

Focus on Italy :

Italian solar thermal market

Chapter IV : BIOENERGY GLOBAL MARKET

Bioenergy market : drivers and barriers

Bioenergy market : Sweden biomass case study

IV.1 Biomass

Eu Biomass market

Biomass, a difficult industry to quantify

Bioenergy production models

Biomass applications

Biomass Energy : advantages and drawbacks

Biomass technology analysis

Solid Biomass EU energy production

Focus on Finland :

Finnish biomass market

Finnish policy framework

Focus on Sweden :

Swedish biomass market

Swedish biomass market policy framework

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Focus on France :

French Biomass market

French policy framework

Focus on Germany :

German biomass market

German policy framework

Focus on Russia :

Russian Biomass market

Focus on North America :

North America Biomass market

USA Biomass market policy framework

Focus on Canada :

Canadian biomass market

Canadian policy framework

Focus on Latin America :

Latin America biomass market

Focus on Asia :

Asian biomass market

Chinese biomass market

Chinese biomass market : drivers and barriers

Chinese RE framework

Focus on India :

Indian biomass market

Focus on Japan :

Japanese market

Japanese policy framework

Focus on New Zealand

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New Zealand biomass market

IV.2 Global Biofuels market

Biofuel production to reach the equivalent of 1.95 mb/d of oil by 2013

Transportaiton sector : new fuels for a transforming sector

Biofuel market : strenghts and weaknesses

North America vehicle standards

Passenger Vehicle Standards

EU GHG standards

Japan standards

Biofuels vs oil

Global Ethanol blending requirements

Gasoline & Ethanol Demand 2020

Ethanol world production exceeded 17 bn gallons in 2008

World Ethanol Production 2008

World Ethanol production 2007

World Ethanol demand 2020

Increasig Biofuel demand worldwide: a crucial issue for land use by 2020

Biofuels to reach 34 Mtoe by 2020

Contribution of Biofuels to Transport Fuel Consumption for the EU-27


EU 27 : 10% target to be acheived by 2020

Focus on EU :

EU biofuel industry state of the art

EU Biodiesel market : strong domestic market but still no export market

Biodiesel production capacities to reach 22,160 mn liters by 2010

EU Biodiesel Top3 producers : Germany and France head the ranking

Biodiesel is foreseen to stand for 4.6% of consumption toward Diesel by 2010

EU Bioethanol market

EU bioethanol production capacities used at 45% because of Brazilian competitive prices

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Focus on France :

Bioethanol Top Producers : France the leading pruducer since 2008

Main EU countries
ntries incentives for Biofuels

Focus on Brazil :

Brazilian Biofuel market

Brazilian ethanol market state of the art

Brazialian investments in sugarcane industry up to 14.6 bn dollars for the coming years

Focus on India :

Indian ethanol market overview

Indian Biodiesel production

Focus on China :

Chinese Biofuel market by 2020

Ethanol support program : a government controlled sector

Chinese ethanol supply

Chinese ethanol import-export


export 2005-2007
2005

China 2020 targets : 10 million tonnes of ethanol and 2 million tonnes of biodiesel

Focus on the USA :

US Biofuel market

Usa biorafinerie industry : 170 biorafineries Online by January 2009

USA RFS challenge : 36 bn of Biofuels by 2022

Blending limits : new trends on blending higher than 10% with gasoline

Ethanol economic
mic benefits : 1 million green jobs by 2022

US Ethanol industry overview

US Ethanol production and demand in 2008

US Ethanol production and demand in 2008

US Fuel Ethanol imports by country 2007

Chapter V : Global Geothermal market : current status

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Global installed geothermal capacity 2005-2007


2005

Electricity generated by geothermal resources : estimated at 27.1% in Iceland

Strengths and Weaknesses of Geothermal energy

Since mid 2000 2,227.6 MW of capacity were ordered worldwide

Geothermal energy producing electricity


ele : encouraging perspectives worldwide

Geothermal energy costs

About 39 Countries could meet 100% of their electricity demand with Geothermal energy

International Geothermal partnership set up

Focus on the USA :

2010 Geothermal market forecasts : the


th USA leading with 3,000 MWe

USA Geothermal leading position

USA Geothermal power capacity installed : 3040.27 MW as of March 2009

Costs for a 20 MW power plant totalize $80 M at the developing phase

Focus on EU :

European geothermal commitment : ENGINE program


pr

ENGINE PROGRAM demonstration projects : Landau project the first successful commercial EGS plant

Euroepan geotheraml market 2010 : less than expected for electricity generation

European 2010 trends for heat production

Focus on Asia :

Asian geothermal status

More than 17 companies intend to invest in geothermal projects in Asian countries

Geothermal new technologies

Geothermal new drilling technologies

Focus on Australia and New Zealand :

Australia & New Zealand commitment in Geothermal energy development

New Zealnd geothermal commitment

Australian Geothermal R&D booming

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Latin America & Caribbean

Focous on Africa :

African Geothermal status

Chapter VI : Hydrogren and Fuel cells global market

Hydrogen and fuel cells major support scheme worldwide:


worldwid Japan funds of $310 million/year

Hydrogen and fuel cells major support scheme worldwide: US funds of


US $512 million/year and $360 million/year

Residential co-gen
gen market forecasts

Hydrogen and fuel cells major support scheme worldwide: European Commission
Commission funds of $236 million/year

Hydrogen and fuel cells major support scheme worldwide: Korean funds of $98 million/year

Hydrogen and fuel cells major support scheme worldwide: China funds of $60 million/year

Hydrogen and fuel cells major support scheme worldwide:


worldwide: Canada funds of $30 million/year

Hydrogen applications

HYDROGEN ELECTRICITY

Focus on the USA :

US HYDROGEN MARKET

Focus on EU :

European hydrogen market : a challenging energy

Hydrogen fuel cell technology for Urban transit

International commitment : Hydrogen Bus Alliance

Utility-scale
scale fuel cells 2015 target of 300,000 kW of global sales volume

World Hydrogen production

Hydrogen Worldwide production capacity at Refineries

Detailed hydrogen production by European country as per January 1st 2009

North America detailed hydrogen production capacities

Top refineries Hydrogen Producers in 2008: Chevron and Valero head the ranking

Main prototypes of revolutionary cars : Strengthnesses

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Honda hydrogen-fuel-cells cars

Transit buses prospects for 2015 : sales price to decrease from US$1,250,000 down to US$850,000

Shuttle buses a potential niche market to be developed

Canadian case study :BC transit fuel cell bus program

Types of Fuel Cells

World light vehicle production breakdown : the fuel cell vehicles still weak representation

Chapter VII : Hydropower global market overview

Hydropower global overview

North America hydroelectricity consumption 2005-2007


2005

Focus on the USA :

Waterpower forcasts in the USA : 23,000 MW to be added over 2025

Focus on Canada :

Canada
da the great hydro potential

Canada small-scale
scale hydro plants : 2,000 MW of capacity to be added by 2011

Focus on South and Central America :

South and Central America hydroelectricity consumption 2005-2007


2005

Focus on Brazil :

Brazilian hydropower market : the


th largest continent hydro resources

Brazilian small-scale
scale hydro overview

Focus on EU :

European hydroelectricity consumption 2005-2007


2005

Focus on Italy :

Italy : one of the largest Eu hydropower resource

Focus on Russia :

Russian hydropower status

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Russian large hydro state of the art

Russian small-scale
scale hydro installations

Focus on Asia :

Asia and Pacific hydroelectricity consumption : China and India head the ranking

Focus on China :

China enormous hydroelectric resources

China’s hydro projects to be completed


compl by 2009-2013

Focus on India :

Indian hydropower

Focus on Australia :

Australian case study : limited natural resources by refurbishing of exisitng equipment is to explore

Australian Renewable target : 9,500 GWh by 2010

Estimated global resoucres of ocean


oc energy

Focus on Small-hydro energy :

Focus on Eu :

size hydraulic European market


Small-size

Small hydraulic electricity produced 38.8 TWh in Europe by 2007

Focus on main EU countries producing small hydro electricty : Italy

Focus on France :

French small-hydro market

Focus on Spain :

Spanish small-hydro
hydro electricity market

Focus on Germany :

German small hydro market : a new feed-in


feed tariffs scheme up to 2009

Focus on Austria :

Austrian small hydro market : particular feed-in


feed tariffs scheme encouraging installations

Small hydro prospects : still unexplored EU regions

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hydro prospects for 2010 and 2020


EU small-hydro

Swedish small-scale
scale hydro plans through 2020

Chapiter VIII : Tidal energy

Global Tidal status

Main characteristics of the 4 world’s largest barrage


barra of tidal power

Tidal power : a real challenge for future development

Tidal intial capital cost estimations

R&D key trends

Verdant Power : a commercial developemnt between 2009-2012


2009

SeaGen – the world’s first commercial scale tidal

Diagram of horizontal tidal stream turbines

Focus on Eu :

Ocean Energy market in Europe

Projects in operation in Europe

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