You are on page 1of 20

SPECIFIC TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT

IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY
EXPLORING THE FUTURE OF SOFTWARE
TECHNOLOGY IN TURKEY

Nihan YILDIRIM, Istanbul Technical University

PRIME Network Of Excellence


PhD Conference, 2005
Aim of Study
- Conducting a foresight study for Turkey on software
technology, that is accepted as a critical technology globally
- To provide inputs to national and industrial policy makers and strategy
formulators for designing effective and applicable policies and strategies
that may open the opportunity window which software technology offers
- To force software industry professionals/practitioners think about the future.

m u ltip le
m u ta b le d es ig n , R&D E c o n o m ic al
u n d e rs ta n d in g , d y n a m ics
fo rm u la tio n in n o va tio n
m a n a g em e n t, of ca tch in g -u p
c h an g e im p le m en ta tio n p e rfo rm an ce
im p le m en ta tio n
T ru e E ffe c tive
S u cc es s fu l
e ffe c tiv e re lia b le su c ce s sfu l in n o vatio n e co n o m ic
s c ien tific b as ed u p d ate d p ro -a ctiv e c ap a b ility g ro w th
tailo re d v alid
F u tu re S tu d ie s S cien c e & In tern atio n a l
In p u ts T ec h n o lo g y tec h n o lo g ic a l in d u strial
T ec h n o lo g y ad va n ce co m p e titiven e ss
F o res ig h t SW OT P o licies

in te lle ctu a l Te ch n o lo g ica l T e ch n o lo g ica l


te ch n o lo g ica l a b ility d y n a m ism ca tch in g -u p
Difficulties & Constraints of Foresighting in a
developing country
 Limited Financial resources: Lack of sponsorship, local funds, expertise on project
management / proposal design to achieve international funds
 Inappropriate Political Climate: Lack of leadership of government, unsystematic socio-
political decisions, political instability, ineffective bureucracy
 Lack of Institutional Framework: No corporation between academy, different disciplines, no
established institution to promote, facilitate, motivate technology foresight studies, immature
professional and sectoral NGO’s.
 Insufficient Records: Lack of databases and statistics of experts, proffessionals, academics
and bureaucrats, firms, innovations, patents etc.
 Insufficient Knowledge Base: developed countries’ monopoly on critical information, limited
consultancy, no prior ampiric studies providing observable issues to compare the results with
for validation
 Insufficient Knowledge Network: weak communication infrastructure, no culture of
exchanging information and team work, incompetency in IT.
Method and process-Knowledge Creation
Practitioner Consultant Expert Focused Expert Delphi Survey
Group (CEG) Group (FEG) Participants
8 developers,4 academics 15 developers, -20 academics (min.
Literature search, on level: PhD) (%27 p.r.)
trends, affecting
Phase 1- Comments on affecting factors 5 academics
Survey Design and trends, -30 industry leader (min.
factors middle level manager)
(%44 p.r.)
Questions for survey -62 Software
56 questionnaire for Phase 2- Professionals (min. BSc
questions Defining main trends- FEG
Answers/comments for degree/ 5 years
survey questionnaire experience) (%62 p.r)
for Phase 2-FEG - Total 112 participants
91 Results of Phase-1 Survey with frequency (% 46 participation rate)
findings distribution, t-test, variance analysis : Validation
MAIN FACTORS AND TRENDS
Technology
Questions for
Interactions
survey
Matrix 112
12 questionnaire
Affecting questions
technologies for Phase 3-
Factors, Delphi Survey Answers/comments for
subfactors
survey questionnaire for
200 Phase 3-Delphi Survey
factors Results of Phase-3 Survey with
918 frequency distribution, Z-test, Second round
findings variance analysis: FINDINGS

-Scenario Components: Driving forces, challenges, trends,


-SWOT Analysis
-Policy Recommendations

Cause/effect, diagrams,
Scenario Plans
SCENARIOS
Evolution of Software Technology
requires causes Broadband internet Material science /Technology:
Wireless networks ceramics for networks and optic
Mobile technologies cables, Polymers, silicon
Artificial intelligence germanium on batteries, silicon
Developer SOFTWARE Processors for processors
communities Innovations EVOLUTION Computing technologies
Biotechnologies
Global firms Data Storage
Academy Input/Output Devices Nano Technologies
Video conference Power devices / power storage
Electronics
Increasing, higher, complicated
Interaction between technologies
User requirements

Open
Advanced Cooperation between technological disciplines
source
technical skills
Structural methods/CMMI code
Agile methods Advanced Multidisciplinary competencies
Extreme programming methodological High level
Personal Software Process skills expertise
New definition of software=
AI, Bayesian techniques, Multidisciplinary Engineering
Simulation,
CASE (Computer Assisted SW Automated Differentiation of Rulers /Workers
Engineering), Software
Constraints programming, High level /Low level developers
Component-based software
development
development
Too smart and New specific HR/ management/ Cooperation of IT
Mathematical/logical organization/motivation/project academy and
hardworking, too
cababilities
Intellectual quality free, independent management techniques business schools
Creativity natured people
Mobility of Human Resources
 1. Increasing mobility of human resources between firms and countries will cause quality
problems, loss of jobs in developed countries, weaken the local technological competencies of
developing countries. SW companies will be more institutionalized to keep the continuity of their
competitiveness by using knowledge management systems, standart methodologies to transform
software development from “artcraft” to corporational procedures. (2010)

DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES


Increasing demand on cost effective IT professionals Regulations against workforce import
High level expertise needs Political discrimination to foreigners esp. in U.S.A.
Workforce import, global HR databases, Brain hunters. Insourcing to replace brain drain loss. (Labs, R&D centers of global
firms in DC’s using the local innovative workforce)
Brain drain
Advanced methodologies

 2. Home offices, virtual offices and freelance working will change the family structures and bring
cultural changes. (2010-2015)

DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES


Changes in the expectations of individuals from life quality Increasing subcontractorships
(more free time, family before career). Decline in security of jobs
Open source, open world
 Open source code will change the basic concepts of software causing a return to code sharing structure at
70’s, Software world will choose freedom and prefer open source code operating systems, office applications,
web servers, database systems, domain name servers and languages. Market share of PC’s with open source
systems on them will increase. Global firms will have to cooperate with and support open source. (2007-2010)
 Licencing will be over in 10 years and SW firms will earn money through services (2010)
 Every country will have a national open source operating system (2015)
DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES
Advanced technical abilities provided by evolutionary development Global firms opening their codes
Lower hardware performance requirements Hardware integration problem of open source systems (5 years)
Developer communities Global firms’ lobbies about the inpracticality of open source
Difficulties in stopping piracy through technical/ regulative preventions WinTel
Cooperation with hardware producers
Open source code as a strategic national choice for LDC’s

Artificial Intelligence
 There will be digital intelligence in every device and electronics. Refrigerators, owens, washing machines,
cars, doors, heating/cooling mechanisms, even heart batteries will be communicating with their users,
producers, environment, social service centres, supermarkets etc. Electronics and Computers will be
physical and will be ble to read mimics and gestures of humans. Language translation programmes will
remove most of cultural borders and reshape intellectual life. Forecasting, listening and analyzing disasters
and natural events will improve the quality of life. (2015-2020)
DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES
Bayesian techniques High processor needs,Need for 64 bit operating systems
Neural Networks Cooperation/mergers of electronic firms with IT/software firms
Voice, pattern, speech recognition systems (in daily life in 2010) Speech recognition and speech-to-writing mechanisms not
Fingertip and iris recognition (in daily life in 2007) available till the perfect recording of voice is provided.
Great opportunities of Multimodel biometric applications (2008) Natural Language Processing (limited developments in 3 years)
Need for definition of Multimodel biometrics Standarts
New ways of Computing
 Quantum computing:
 not in practical use before 2020
 Requires a specific programming language
 can be used in national defence and military
 Grid Computing:
 enables to connect and unite distributed computer resources and use the common power for higher performance needs.
 Appropriate databases will be improved.
 enable LDC’s improve their national IT infrastructure and meet high computing performance needs with low costs.
 Enable industry share resources.
 Security needs will be met till 2010.
 Super Computing:
 requires an expensive infrastructure and advanced scientific knowledge and know-how,
 enables advanced applications like earth simulation.
 Can be used in forecasting natural events and disasters, in material science replacing the real testing environment., in
automative industry for safety tests
 Utility computing (On-demand):
 Not in practical use before 2015
 enables to carry resources dynamically between platforms,
 couples these resources for meeting high computing requirements.
 Parallel processing: will not be widely used till 2008.
Mobile world
 Mobile world will enable humans and companies to connect to networked computers and whole digital
environment anywhere, anytime through mobile internet , innovative mobile softwares, consolidated mobile
devices communicating with each other, that can be also used as payment cards, digital keys, ıd cards by
embedded chips. This will change the way of living and increase quality of life. (2010)
 Mobile operators will focus on corporate services. Mobile service costs will replace constant usage costs.
DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES
Nr. of mobile users =2 billions- 2007,Nr. Of cellular phones>PC+TV (2006) Ergonomy in mobile devices- light batteries and fans
Mobile subscription rate = %25 - world , %105- Europe 2006 Security problems
20trillion bit data download/day,%50 subscribers use data services in 2006 Battery problem ( will be solved in 2008)
Mobile PC’s=Desktop (2008) Difficulties in dynamic IP
Development in mobile devices market (8 billions USD in 2008) Transforming existing applications to mobile applications
Mobile communication protocols like Bluetooth, Jini, Chai
3G (in daily life in 2008), 4G and II.5 g (2010-2015)
Ubiguitous Computing (in daily life in 2009)
Mergers of electronic producers and software providers
Pervasive computing and Post PC devices
System Security
 Software itself will not be able to meet increasing system security requirements completely. Security
softwares will be supported by hardware solutions. Complete solutions including antivirus, attack recognition,
firewall will be produced. There will be more customer/service provider relations in security software market.

DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES


Standardization in SW technology NGSCB of Microsoft will be security standart in 3 years
Mergers and consolidations in security software market AI, bayesian based learning techniques
Hardware based solutions’ quality/cost inequlibirum (min 4 years)
Cost effectivity of hardware solutions
Networked and Downloadable World
 Networks, applications and hardwares will be united.
 %70 of industries will be carried to e-business .
 Broadband connections of gigabyte will be available even at home. By internet based content distribution all
softwares and digital content (information, document, data and image) will be downloadable in 2010.
Operating systems and PC processor performance abilities will not be important anymore. Entertainment,
movie and music industries will be reshaped. CD, related hardware and material supplier industry will get into
crisis.
 IP based communication will be the mostly used telecommunication tool in 10 years
DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES
Wide usage of Broadband technologies (usage= X 3 in 2009). Problems with high temperatured conductors
Automatically controlled Optical networks and Passive optical networking Immaturity of wireless networks to replace wired networks till
Wireless networks (usage =X 4 in 2006, 30 million people in 2007) 2009
Users directing the evolution of wireless world with their demands Security problem in wireless communication
Cost effecitivity of Wi-max (in mobile phones 2007,laptops in 2008) Attacks on internet terrorist (An attack to internet expected in
Mobile technologies 10 years)
NDC’s where earth lines are not mature and too expensive Internet crimes
Smart networks, Smartcards Piracy on downloadable content
Satellite connections No backup of internet, not possible to create one before 2015
Advancements in Grid computing Immaturity of grid computing to alternate internet
Web services with standart protocols, free from platforms like XML Difficulties in dynamic IP and expanding internet backbone for
Developments in internet protocols .mobi
Content management
Cyber-Big Brother
 There will be Cyber wars.and there will be cyber attacks to firms of enemy countries and their partners. War
management and techniques will change, mobile troops will be able to share tactical information in real time.
National intelligence units will be monitoring citizens realtime and everywhere. Digitalization of security forces
and intelligence units will limit the privacy of individuals. Messaging groups will be monitored. There will be
discussions on ethical issues. Nongovernmental bodies will reject and resist to these systems
DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES
International instable political climate Limitation on the privacy of individuals
innovation abilities of local industry in a competition- free environment Blocking applications of nongovernmental bodies
Quantum cryptography No international market
Cyber attacks empowered by wider broadband.
e-Government
 Digitalization of government and rural administrations will increase digital content. Governmental bodies will
be effectively integrated and improve their bureucracy and process productivity. IT and digitalization of
governmental and political bodies will cause social reformations. For example, in election periods, citizen
consultancy web sites integrating elections surveys and political party programmes and comparing them with
citizen’s expectations will be used. This will improve democratic systems.
DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES
Digital content Reengineering need for processes of government bodies
Content management , portal structures

e-Learning
 Education systems will be powered by virtual classrooms and distributed learning. Educational content will be
managed and improved by content management systems and will be available in internet. By this way,
educational knowledge management will improve the intellectual accumulation.
DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES
Content management, portal structures Reengineering need for processes of education
My Doctor Beside me
 Medical archives, databases on medical techniques, information sharing platforms, doctor communities will
be avaliable from all around the world. Online medical conferences, seminars, even surgeries will empower
the expertise of doctors and will decrease learning costs by removing the need to travel .
 Health and medical services like recognition, testing, imaging will be available online. Online ambulance traffic
management, connecting to doctor real time, medicine order, urgent hospital reservation etc. will increase the
productivity and speed of medical services. Patients and their medical indicators and datas will be monitored
everywhere, everytime by medical institutions.
 Intelligent devices will be in communication with medical institutions and will inform them urgently when a life
threatening condition develops.
 There will be no need for real human body in medical training and in medical R&D. Detailed imaging required
for recognition will be possible without surgery.
CHALLENGES
National health IT standarts
Limitation on the privacy of individuals

Digital Playground
 Online Computer games will be more than downloadable games. In games new virtual worlds individuals will
have various characters. Spending more time in virtual games will threaten the social relations of individuals
and families. Games and movies will and interactive movies will be popular. In time virtual actors will replace
real actors and especially stunts will lose their jobs. Games will be used in psychological tests , sometimes
without the permission of players and this will cause ethical discussions.
 Global software firms will try to be more effective in computer game industry but will fail because game
software development requires high visual creativity expertise.
 Game softwares will also be used in education.
DRIVING FORCES: CHALLENGES: People’s emotional ties and needs of
Growing computer games market (7 billion USD in 2006) admiring to movie stars
E-Business
 E-business will double productivity/efficiency per hour within 25 years. US consumers will spend 133 billion
USD to e-trade. Online shopping will be doubled in 5 years. LDC’s will face the threat of loosing their existing
business volume and staying out of the global economy if they cannot carry their industries to web based
work processes of B2B and B2C. Bargaining sites and second hand virtual markets will transform shopping
attitudes and threaten electronic, consumer goods industries. Increase in B2B portal sites of SMSC’s will
improve producers’ unions. By the development of e-trade, global firms will close their sales branches abroad
and this will cause loss of jobs and foreign investment in LDC’s.
DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES
New generations grown up with internet Reengineering need for processes
Content management, portals (market=3.1 billion USD in 2006) Workers’ Unions resisting automation substitution
Security problem with electronic payment systems

On the road, on the net


 Transport telematics will develop, vehicles will communicate with each other and roads, road / traffic
management centres, oil stations, hospitals etc. This will reduce accident rates and improve traffic. Technical
problems will be sent to vehicle producers real time.
DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES
Development of retailing applications Reengineering need for processes
Integration with automative and transport technologies

CRM (Customer Relations Management)


 CRM and marketing/sales automation will replace active sales and CRM and call center cervices will be
integrated. Calls that are recorded and archived in Call Centers will be transformed to datas supporting CRM.

DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES


Development of retailing applications Reengineering need for processes
ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning)
 Next generation ERP packages will be integrated and united with CRM, SCM applications. Open source ERP
packages will enable small and medium sized companies to increase their quality / productivity and
competitiveness. Customers will pay only for service and maintanance of ERP’s . Consolidations and mergers
between solution providers of ERP’s will empower monopoly in the market . Country of origin effect on ERP
choice will continue to be dominant with global firms using their home country origined ERP’s in their
offshore units. ERP investments will increase in retaling, consumer goods, telecom, CPG/FMCG and
logistics/distribution industries. ERP’s will be upgraded with the developments in processors.

CHALLENGES
DRIVING FORCES
Global Firms monopoly (%50 market share). Microsoft aims
Mature market (total global market 5.7 billions USD 2008)
to be dominant by 2010.
Country of origin effect
Reengineering need for processes

Retailing and SCM (Supply Chain Management)


 Products and producers , CRM applications, transport telematics will be communicating with eachother and
products will be monitored till the end of product life. The basic consepts of consumer goods and retailing
industry will change. This monitoring will threaten the privacy of consumers and cause ethical discussions.
CHALLENGES
Global Firms imposing ERP integrations
Reengineering need for processes
Very high volumes of data
Databases
 Object relational databases will develop and widely used.
 Distributed databases will be critically important.
TECHNOLOGICAL DRIVING FORCES (DF) AND CHALLENGES (C)

Brother
Cyber Big
beside me
My doctor

E-government

E-learning

E-business
the net
On the road, on

CRM
SCM
Retailing and

ERP’S
software
Security

Databases

playground
Digital

TOTAL
( DF=1 , C=-1 )
Networked and
Mobilie human
Mobile humAn

Downloadable
Open source,

Mobile world
SCENARIOS

resources 1

resources 2

Intelligence
open world

Computing
Artificial
World

Utility
SOFTWARE
TECHNOLOGIES
Grid Computing DF DF DF DF DF 5
Broadband DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF 17
Distributed software C DF DF DF DF 4,-1
developments
Mobile technologies DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF 14
Open source DF DF DF DF DF DF DF/C C DF 8,-2
Processors DF DF C C C C C C C C C DF C 10,-3
Artificial Intelligence DF DF DF DF DF/C DF DF DF DF DF DF 11,-3
System Security DF C C C C C C C C C C C DF C 12,-2
Digital animation DF DF DF DF DF 5
Quantum computing DF DF 2
Virtual reality DF DF DF DF 4
Embedded softwares DF DF DF DF DF DF 6
e-learning DF DF DF 3
Video conference DF DF DF DF 4
Neural networks DF DF 2
Simulation DF DF DF Df 4
Holographic imaging DF DF DF 3
Multimedia DF DF DF DF 4
Data,voice image int. DF DF DF 3
RFID, NFC DF DF DF DF 4
VoIP Df 1
Datamining/warehouse DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF 8
SWOT
STRENGTHS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMON
FOR TURKEY
THREATS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMON
 Cheap work-force  Digital divide
SPECIFIC STRENGTHS OF TURKEY  Economic instability of Country
 Young population  Global firms
 Entrepreneurship courage of local firms  Difficulties in outsourcing and export due to lack of
 High rate of cellular phone usage software standarts
 Powerfull local GSM Operators  Brain drain
 National IT general assembly  Increase in imports due to lack local hardware and
 Positive business climate with Turki republics
mobile device industry,
 Loss of jobs by automation
OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMON
SPECIFIC THREATS FOR TURKEY
 Open source code and community
 Political lobbies of global firms in government
 Grid computing
 Global firms trying to buy local GSM Operators
 Developer communities
 Incontinuity of S&T policies and programmes due to
 Benchmarking with other countries
Political instability
 Smart translation softwares
 Restrictions on R&D and innovation funds and
SPECIFIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR TURKEY incentives due to strict national saving programmes
 Technoparks and technocities imposed by IMF
 EU candidate membership process  Political intervention and staff assignments of
 Efforts of Linux Community on national open source operating government to national Science and Technology
system (ULUDAG Project) Institution (TUBITAK)
 Opposite brain drain  Resistance to methodologic work as a part of
 “Turquality” project
national culture – Turkish way of working
 SW quality studies of national quality organizations and academy
 Effective and innovative local electronics producers
SWOT FOR TURKEY
WEAKNESSES OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMON SPECIFIC WEAKNESSES OF TURKEY
• Follower of technology, incompetent on technology • Dependency of academy to governmental bodies-YOK,
adaptation and innovation in national level • Insufficient regulations and legal frame for Telecom
• Low PC/internet penetration industry, failure in privatization of Telecom
• Insufficient IT infrastructure and broadband connection • Alphabetical differences
• No leadership of government
• Too many sectoral NGO’s, no synergy
• Ineffective bureaucracy and regulations
• High piracy rate (%58)
• Insufficient human resources
• Limited financial resources due to low national income
• Foreign language incompetency
• Ineffective and inapplicable national S&T policies • “Parrot fashioned” basic education without IT tools
• Lack of future research on critical technologies • No mature professional organization on software
• In effective academic and educational policies • Incompetencein methodological work, project management,
• Weak links between educational/academic policies and quality planning and management, testing and control:
national S&T programmes and ,industrial needs “Turkish way of working”
• No competency of academy and industry for following • Insufficient consultancy
critical technological trends • Immature local developer communities
• No multidisciplinary framework • Limited participation in global developer communities
• Immature local market, lack of large scale local firms • Unconscious users with unrealistic expectations
• No competency in interacting technologies
• No local hardware/mobile device producer firms
• Weak country brand
• Lack of competency in marketing and brand creation
• No national software standards, no national plan to design
• Insufficient management, organization, human resources
management abilities
SWOT FOR TURKEY ON SOFTWARE TYPES
Software type Existing Production Future Potential
in Turkey opportunity of Turkey
National security and defence High High High
Health/medical Low High Medium
Logistics/transportation/tourism Low High Low

E-Government Low High High


ERP Low Medium Low

SCM Low High Low

CRM Low High Low

Education, E-learning Low High Medium


E-Business Low High Medium
Finance/Accounting/Banking High Medium High
System Security Low High Medium
Business Intelligence and Analytics Low High Low

Content/Knowledge/Document/Multimedia Management Low High Low

Embedded softwares Medium High High


System (operating system, database, web/mail/server/ dns, servers, system management) Low High Low

Smart/Intelligent software – Middlewares Low High Low

Multimedia/Imaging/sound and image processing Medium High Medium


Entertainment, digital animation, Games Medium High High
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TURKEY
 Effective and applicable National Science and Technology Policies :
 based on the findings of scientific future research studies like technology foresight
 Including applicable improvement programmes for critical and opportunity promising technologies
 R&D and innovation programmes and supports for specific critical fields of defined critical technologies.
 basis for educational/academic policies and national employment policies
 Restructured and autonomous of National Science and Technology Institutions
 National Information Technology Institution including a software focused unit
 National software standards
 Privatization or reorganization of Turkish Telecom
 Corporation of academy and industry
 Improvement programmes for developing technoparks/technocities
 United sectoral organizations under a confederation structure,
 Open source code accepted as a national strategic choice
 National open source operating system
 Establishment of national software professional organizations
 Restructuring basic education improving analytic thinking,mathematical competencies,logical understanding, IT familiarity
 Design and implementation of effective regulations and funds to protect local industry, competitive environment against
global firms, attract foreign investment, outsourcing and insourcing.
 Autonomous Universities
 Improvement of academic education and professional training programmes on software development including business
related competencies