Professional Documents
Culture Documents
I. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 1
II. “PLACE YOUR BETS!”: THE DIALOGUE AT SUN CITY OR BOTSWANAN ROULETTE .... 2
III. “GAME OVER”?: NO NEW POLITICAL ORDER ON THE HORIZON FOR THE CONGO ... 7
APPENDICES
After seven weeks of negotiations at Sun City, a with the RCD and Rwanda. The RCD, its cohesion
partial agreement was reached on 19 April 2002 and existence threatened, tried to break its isolation
between Jean-Pierre Bemba’s MLC (Mouvement by forming an alliance with the UDPS (Union pour
pour la libération du Congo) and the government la démocratie et le progrès social) of Etienne
of Joseph Kabila. The agreement represents the Tshisekedi, and is talking up threats of renewed
end of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue in the context hostilities and partition of the country.
of the Lusaka peace accords. However confusion
reigns. The negotiations are not complete and the It is highly desirable that negotiations with the
future of the Democratic Republic of Congo RCD be finalised before the transition government
remains uncertain. is installed. President Mbeki of South Africa, as
next president of the Southern Africa Development
The accord, struck by the majority of delegates Community (SADC) and of the African Union
from unarmed opposition groups and civil society, (AU), should become joint leader of the process,
and approved by Angola, Uganda and Zimbabwe, on condition that he receives a clear mandate from
is the beginning of a political realignment in the the parties to the dialogue and from the regional
DRC conflict. Most notably it heralds the end of countries that have given their support to the
the anti-Kabila coalition and confirms the isolation Kabila-Bemba partnership, i.e. Angola and
of the RCD (Rassemblement congolais pour la Uganda. The neutrality of South Africa has indeed
Démocratie) and its ally Rwanda. The Kabila been questioned by the Congolese who were stung
government and the MLC actually concluded the by its apparent support for the RCD at Sun City.
accord by default, due to the intransigence of the
RCD on the question of power sharing in The Sun City talks may also mark the beginning of
Kinshasa, and, in the background, the failed a real regional discussion on the security and
negotiations between the governments of the DRC economic issues at the heart of the Congolese
and Rwanda over the disarmament of the Hutu conflict. In particular, the issue of Rwanda’s
rebels known as ALiR (Armée pour la libération security is finally on the table – the disarmament of
du Rwanda). This accord transformed the the Rwanda Hutu militias based in the DRC – as
discussions between the Lusaka signatories into a well as the issue of the Congo’s security – the
bilateral negotiation with a Kabila-Bemba axis withdrawal of the RPA (Rwandan Patriotic Army)
backed by the international community on one from the DRC itself. These are both part of the
side, and a politically weak RCD, backed by a Lusaka accords. It is also time to discuss the long-
militarily strong Rwanda on the other. term security of the region, especially the
reconstruction of the Congolese state, and the
The new partners announced that they would rights and responsibilities of that state.
install a transition government in Kinshasa on 15
June, declared the Lusaka accords ‘dead’ but As soon as a political accord on power sharing is
committed themselves to continuing negotiations reached, the indispensable coordination of all these
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page ii
different dimensions of the peace process should TO THE SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE
be assured by the appointment of a high-profile UNITED NATIONS:
Special Envoy of the United Nations’ Secretary-
General. The mandate of the Special Envoy should 4. Appoint a high-profile Special Envoy for the
be to supervise the implementation of an inclusive Great Lakes with the responsibility to guide
agreement on political transition; to coordinate UN and press for the application of the Lusaka
activities on DDRRR (disarmament, peace accords and to ensure cooperation
demobilisation, repatriation, reintegration, and between the various UN institutions involved
resettlement of armed groups); to ensure in the Rwanda and in the Congolese peace
cooperation between the various UN institutions process.
involved in the Rwandan and Congolese peace
processes (ICTR, MONUC, the expert panel on the 5. Give the new Special Envoy a concurrent
illegal exploitation of natural resources in the mandate to negotiate between Rwanda, the
DRC); and to prepare the agenda for a regional government of DRC, Angola, Uganda and
conference on security and sustainable Zimbabwe on the application of a DDRRR
development in the Great Lakes. program as well as the permanent
withdrawal of all foreign troops from the
RECOMMENDATIONS Congo.
TO THE SIGNATORIES OF THE LUSAKA PEACE 6. Equip MONUC with a specialist conflict
ACCORDS AND MEMBERS OF THE JOINT resolution team to assist humanitarian aid
MILITARY COMMISSION: agencies in gaining access to the Kivu and
Ituri regions and to establish reconciliation
1. Entrust President Mbeki with mediating the programs between local communities.
conclusion of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue.
This process could build on results obtained TO THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DRC, THE
by the facilitator of the Lusaka process, MLC AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ALLIES:
Ketumile Masire. It should also be based on
a compromise between the power-sharing 7. As a crucial test of credibility, immediately
proposal known as ‘Mbeki II’ and the accord arrest and deliver to Arusha the leaders of
struck between the Congolese government ALiR who are wanted by the International
and the MLC. Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda and suspend
all supply of ALiR forces on Congolese
2. Give the mediator a mandate to obtain a territory.
preliminary accord between Rwanda,
Uganda, Angola and Zimbabwe on Brussels/Nairobi, 14 May 2002
conditions to be met for them to support a
transitional power-sharing agreement in the
DRC. Once this agreement is obtained, the
new mediator could once again bring
together the parties to the Inter-Congolese
Dialogue and finalise an inclusive power-
sharing agreement.
1
See, in particular: IRIN, “RDC: Récapitulatif des
résultats du dialogue intercongolais,” 25 April 2002.
2
See ICG Africa Report n°37, 16 November 2001: “The
Inter-Congolese Dialogue: political negotiation or game of
bluff?”
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 2
II. “PLACE YOUR BETS!”: THE selecting Mai Mai delegates and new
DIALOGUE AT SUN CITY OR representatives from the unarmed political
BOTSWANAN ROULETTE opposition would be decided at a later meeting.
However, nothing else was agreed upon for the
remaining items on the agenda. By then, the
A. FROM ADDIS ABABA TO SUN CITY: debates over power-sharing in the transition
LACK OF POLITICAL PREPARATION government were already moving to centre stage,
CONTINUES and in hindsight, the Abuja meeting was a warning
signal for the future blockages at Sun City.
After the failure of the Addis Ababa talks, when
The MLC rebels proposed a revolving presidency
the Congolese government walked out at the end of
every three years, giving the seat of prime minister
a week-long negotiation in protest at the lack of
to the unarmed political opposition and the
adequate representation from the delegations
presidency of the Parliament to the Forces vives de
present, the international community stepped in to
la nation. The government immediately rejected
try and defuse the situation. The first attempt came
the proposal, stating that the post of head of state
in November 2001, at the initiative of Kofi Annan.
was neither vacant nor negotiable. Instead, it put
The three belligerents, who were attending a
forward the idea of two vice-presidencies for the
session of the joint military commission in New
two rebel elements, giving the seat of prime
York, were invited to take part in an informal
minister to the unarmed opposition and the
meeting chaired by the UN under-secretary general
presidency of Parliament to the Forces vives.4
for political affairs Ibrahima Fall. They then agreed
Faced with the government’s intransigence over
to meet again in order to settle the issue of the
the presidency issue, the MLC promptly declared
composition of delegations once and for all. At the
that it was no longer interested in attending another
same time, there was also genuine political
meeting, while the RCD flexed its military muscles
mediation over the issue of power-sharing. An
and declared that it intended “to continue the fight
agenda was set for this informal meeting to tackle
to the final victory”.5 The summit between Joseph
not only the issue of delegations, but also to
Kabila, Jean-Pierre Bemba and Adolphe
discuss the organisation of elections, the new
Onosumba, which was supposed to prepare the
political order, national sovereignty and the
ground for an eventual political agreement, was
territorial integrity of the Congo.
thus postponed indefinitely.
A month later, the three parties resumed their
In the wake of the meeting, the so-called radical
discussions in Abuja, Nigeria, and made significant
unarmed opposition (UDPS, FONUS, MPR-Fait
headway on the issue of the composition of
privé, PALU, PDSC, MNC-L) vehemently
delegations for the dialogue. A preliminary
agreement was reached on representation of the
outside of the Congo, at least thirty for the fifteen parties
Mai Mai, religious orders, traditional chiefs and present at Addis Ababa, and another twenty for the
the unarmed opposition.3 The practicalities of remaining groups who were still excluded from the
Dialogue. In the end, the three belligerents reached an
agreement to reduce their own delegation to fifty-five
participants, which matched the number given to the
3
Six representatives were allocated for the Mai Mai and unarmed political opposition. Exceptionally, the number
seven for the religious orders, to be included in the Forces allocated to the forces vives increased to seventy one
vives component. The belligerents also decided to representatives, while the RCD-ML retained its original
recommend to the Facilitation team the redistribution of number of nine. It was also agreed that the traditional
seats for the unarmed political opposition delegation in chiefs would be incorporated into the belligerents’
order to resolve the problem of including its delegations. Thus, the total number of participants dropped
representatives based inside and outside the country but from three hundred and thirty to three hundred. See
who were not represented at Addis Ababa. In July 2001 at “Minutes of the consultations between the Congolese
Gaborone, the fifteen parties authorised to represent the signatory parties of the Lusaka Accords”, Abuja, 7 and 8
unarmed political opposition launched a bid to take over December 2001.
4
the entire delegation that was due to go to the Dialogue, “The unspoken issue of the Abuja meeting: the
excluding all other political groups, to the great annoyance belligerents battle for the presidency”, Le Phare, 12
of politicians who remained in Kinshasa and the unarmed December 2001.
5
opposition based outside the country. Five seats were “The DRC to keep up hostilities”, AFP, 8 December
consequently allocated to the unarmed opposition based 2001.
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 3
opposed the Abuja recommendations, arguing that commitment to stop supporting the war in Kivu.
they violated the principle adopted at Lusaka in The government responded by saying that it
May 2001, granting each group the freedom to wanted to defer the issue until the next meeting of
select its own delegates6. The radical faction also the joint military commission in Luanda. In the
condemned Joseph Kabila’s attempt to undermine light of this, the RCD decided to suspend its
it by trying to incorporate parties linked to the participation in the talks, but remained there to
government into its contingent. In effect, since 4 monitor progress as an observer. This left the MLC
December, Joseph Kabila had been entering into and the government alone to continue negotiations,
parallel “consultations” with certain members of which led to an agreement over the system of
the unarmed political opposition7 and was choosing the Mai Mai delegation and the division
pressuring the Congo-Brazzaville government to of political seats within the RCD-ML.10 However,
prevent the radical opposition from holding a no consensus was reached over the method of
private meeting in Pointe-Noire on 18 December designating the twenty extra delegates from the
2001.8 unarmed political opposition.11 At the same time,
discussions continued over most of the questions
In January, the Belgian government tried to stem raised at the Brussels meeting. Although no
the growing malaise in the ranks of the unarmed concrete accord was reached, it allowed the MLC
political opposition and civil society, which felt and the government to move closer to an
increasingly squeezed out of the negotiations, by agreement on the principles and timeframe
organising talks between the two groups in governing the transition, on future elections and on
Brussels. A consensus was reached on a number of the guidelines for establishing a national army.
key points that were later included in the final
resolutions at Sun City and in the Bemba-Kabila In the end, although the political preparation for
framework agreement. These included a short the Inter-Congolese Dialogue at Sun City was far
transition of no longer than thirty months; the more advanced that it had been at Addis Ababa, it
acceptance of Joseph Kabila as head of state but was still insufficient. The issue of who would
with the appointment of a prime minister; the make up the additional list of the unarmed political
creation of an Independent Electoral Commission, opposition was the breaking point for the MLC.12
a High Authority for the Media, a Truth and The RCD was none the happier with its failure to
Reconciliation Commission, a Human Rights get an agreement on halting the war in the East
Monitor and a commission to oversee the contracts since the meeting of the joint military commission
signed during the two wars; the drafting of a that was due to be held in Luanda on 11 February
transition Constitution, maintaining a highly was postponed indefinitely by the Angolan
decentralised but unified state after transition, etc. government.13
The Congolese government participated in the
Brussels talks as an observer, but the UDPS, the
FONUS and the two rebel movements refused to
attend.9 By then, the tensions that would later
cause gridlock at the Sun City dialogue had well 10
and truly taken root. They suggested to the Facilitator that each belligerent
send him a list of four Mai Mai who, under his facilitation,
would choose between them the six representatives to take
However, bowing to international pressure, the part in the negotiations. They also proposed that for the
three belligerents agreed to meet again from 4-8 RCD-ML, three seats should be allocated to the RCD-
February in Geneva. From the outset, the RCD National faction headed by Roger Lumbala, two to the
asked the government to make a solemn RCD-ML-Bunia faction headed by John Tibasiima, two to
the RCD-ML-Beni/Butembo under Mbusa Nyamwisi and
a further two to the RCD-ML/Kisangani faction led by
Professor Wamba dia Wamba.
6 11
“Unarmed opposition rejects conclusions of Abuja”, Le “Minutes of the informal consultations between
Potentiel 12 December 2001. Congolese parties signatories to the Lusaka Accord over
7
“Joseph Kabila returns to pre-talk discussions for Inter- representation at the Inter-Congolese negotiations”,
Congolese Dialogue”, AFP, 12 December 2001 Geneva, 4-8 February 2002.
8 12
“DRC: Opposition parties accuse government of “Dialogue: The MLC calls for change in opposition
preventing a meeting”, AFP, 19 December 2001. representatives”, AFP, 12 February 2001.
9 13
“Accord reached in Brussels between the non- “Talks in Luanda between belligerents of DRC conflict
belligerents”, IRIN, 21 January 2001. annulled”, AFP, 11 February 2002.
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 4
As a consequence, the pre-dialogue summit Kabila’s Presidency. The delegates had to continue
between Joseph Kabila, Jean-Pierre Bemba and their work for a short period in the absence of the
Adolphe Onosumba, aimed at finalising a government. On 14 March, troops serving the RCD
preliminary political agreement essential to the and the RPA entered the coastal town of Moliro,
success of Sun City, never took place. Moreover, on Lake Tanganyika, creating the perfect pretext
the parallel meetings held in the wake of the Addis for the government delegation to walk out of the
failure between the leaders of Angola, Uganda, the talks. Predictably, in the absence of a basic
DRC and Rwanda failed to achieve a agreement over the common interests of the
rapprochement. Angola and Uganda’s initiative to foreign belligerents, war continued to rage in the
set up a united bloc dubbed the CAUR (Congo, East, and the belligerents resorted to military
Angola, Uganda and Rwanda), based on the same intimidation in order to gain political ground.
coalition that had overthrown Mobutu in 1997,
failed when Rwanda refused to be included, on the The RCD-APR’s invasion of Moliro turned out to
grounds that it doubted the bloc’s ability to tackle be a public relations disaster for Rwanda. It was
the problem of ALiR disarmament.14 Nevertheless, sanctioned by Security Council resolution 1399,
despite all these uncertainties, Ketumile Masire demanding the immediate withdrawal of troops
still maintained the date of 25 February for the from the town. In the end, however, Kigali
start of the Dialogue. succeeded in convincing MONUC to request the
departure of the Forces armées congolaises (FAC)
from Moliro, pulling off a crippling military
B. CHRONICLE OF BLOCKAGES FORETOLD humiliation for Joseph Kabila just as he was
promoting himself as the incontestable transition
The new chapter in the Inter-Congolese Dialogue, leader. Moreover, a week after withdrawing from
when it resumed on 25 February at Sun City, was Moliro, the RCD protested strongly against the
characterised by a series of blockages, many of return of FAC units to the town. This not only
which were the direct result of insufficient political served to highlight MONUCs total inability to
preparation for the meeting. The first ten days of guarantee the permanent demilitarisation of a
the dialogue were paralysed by unresolved quarrels strategic position but also gave the RCD another
over the composition of the unarmed political reason not to pull out of Kisangani16. For the
opposition delegation. The MLC refused to Dialogue, the Moliro episode signalled quite
participate in the debates until the issue had been clearly that the Sun City talks would be played out
satisfactorily resolved. The only solution proposed according to the power relations on the ground.
by the facilitation team was to increase the overall
number of delegates to 359.15 After this, the clash A new stalemate emerged in the Dialogue at the
between the government and the rebel movements end of March, two weeks before the end of the
over the question of power-sharing blocked all the negotiations, over the question of creating a
work of the Legal and Political Commission. national army. The government withdrew its
participation in the Defence and Security
The RCD-Goma and the MLC had gone to Sun Commission after categorically refusing to adopt a
City with one common priority: replacing Kabila resolution to restructure and integrate the armed
as leader during the transition period, while the forces into any other base than the existing
government went there with its aim of validating government army. Instead, it demanded that the
structure of the FAC be maintained and units from
the rebel forces be integrated into it. This position
14
was obviously unacceptable for the two rebel
ICG interviews with representatives of the Ugandan movements, which called for a complete merger of
government, Kampala, January-February 2002.
15 the three forces.
The composition of each delegation was increased to
sixty-eight participants, and the RCD-ML’s to sixteen. The
group of 15 parties present in Gaborone obtained three In the end, the complete lack of mediation between
representatives instead of two, and the group of twenty the belligerents and their foreign allies did nothing
additional representatives from the internal unarmed
political opposition was reduced to eighteen, excluding
two controversial figures: the alternative leader of the
16
UDPS, Kibassa Maliba, and the former Mobutist loyalist Since June 2000, several Security Council resolutions
Vunduawe Te Pemako. have called on the RCD to demilitarise Kisangani.
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 5
to resolve the deep-rooted conflicts, and since integration of the armed forces” from troops
Ketumile Masire had always perceived his role as belonging to current FAC (government) units,
being extremely minimalist, and more logistical Jean-Pierre Bemba’s MLC, Adolphe Onosumba’s
than political, the key debates were totally RCD-Goma, Mbusa Nyamwisi’s RCD-
paralysed. Masire was not even capable of putting Mouvement de libération (RCD-ML), Roger
to good use the exceptional team of commissioners Lumbala’s RCD-National and the Mai Mai forces.
at his disposal (Mustapha Niasse, Abdusalam The real stakes of the negotiations were therefore
Abubakar, Amadou Ould Abdallah, Ellen Johnson- left entirely to the Legal and Political Commission,
Sirleaf and Albert Tevoedjré), mainly because he which was in a complete impasse for most of the
had simply failed to draw up a strategy to involve talks since the government spent five weeks
them. Indeed, several of the commissioners were demanding recognition of Kabila as a precondition
so disgruntled with the situation that they decided to talks on power-sharing, while the RCD and
to leave Sun City in the middle of the debates. MLC insisted on his withdrawal.
RCD-Goma. In a show of nationalism, the counter- majority of the political opposition, remains a
proposal received the instant backing of the framework agreement. It allots the presidency to
majority of participants, who were eager to avoid Joseph Kabila president, the seat of prime minister
power-sharing solutions dictated by the RCD and to Jean-Pierre Bemba and the presidencies of the
above all, its ally Rwanda. National Assembly and the Senate to RCD-Goma
and the unarmed political opposition, respectively.
The political progress that emerged from Sun City But in reality, the agreement is completely un-
was obviously not just down to luck. Between operational. The responsibilities of each
Addis Ababa and Sun City, all the participants and transitional body are ill-defined and consist only of
their allies were busy preparing strategies and a series of guiding principles that are too vague to
forging important contacts. Regular meetings were allow a real balance of power within the executive.
held between Luanda and Kampala, Kinshasa and The MLC and the government therefore suggested
Gbadolite for most of the year, with giving the post of vice-prime minister in charge of
encouragement from the United States, France and the defence to RCD-Goma, but exactly how
Belgium. These produced a consensus on several power-sharing would be divided between the
issues, including backing for the special status of defence minister, the head of state, the prime
President Kabila during the Dialogue, the need to minister and vice-prime minister remains to be
withdraw foreign troops, especially those around defined. One of the key proposals in the MLC-
the mining capitals of Lubumbashi, Mbuji Mayi government agreement, inspired by the Mbeki
and Kisangani, the reunification of the Congo and plan, was to create a Higher Council for Defence
its transition towards elections17. For its part, which would be presided by the head of state but
certain members of the RCD called for the allow equal representation for each of the three
resurrection of the AFDL axis. Rwanda, shored up belligerents.18
by its alliance with South Africa, also maintained
contacts with Kinshasa over the question of ALiR The door has been left open for RCD-Goma, which
disarmament and power-sharing. Despite all this, should seize the opportunity. As the signatories of
however, the intransigence and general suspicion the accord openly admitted, finalising proposals
of the protagonists, and the absence of any real for the agreement will require at least two or three
mediation, meant that the contacts eventually months of supplementary negotiations.19 If the
turned sour. The two competing camps rallied in partial agreement as well as the work that was
favour of the Dialogue, each side hoping that it accomplished in the commission and adopted in
could eventually count on the support of the plenary become inclusive, this could constitute the
unarmed opposition. The MLC, which had initially basis for a serious discussion on a shared political
given its support to the RCD, was clearly in a plan, but only if all the participants agree to play
better position to persuade participants to back a the game.
solution that they would see as strictly Congolese.
18
ICG interviews with representatives of the MLC and the
17
ICG interviews with representatives of the governments government, Sun City, 12 April 2002.
19
of Uganda, France, Belgium and America, October-April ICG interviews with representatives of the MLC and the
2002. government, Sun City, 12 April 2002.
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 7
III. “GAME OVER”?: NO NEW The troika backed the accord in the hope that it
POLITICAL ORDER ON THE would secure Kabila’s power and allow him to re-
HORIZON FOR THE CONGO establish the state’s authority in the Equator and
eastern province and recoup MLC troops to start
building an army. Angola had already been given
A. THE KABILA-BEMBA WAGER the green light from the United States, France and
Belgium to take an active part in the reorganisation
The partial agreement between the government and and reinforcement of the FAC. It was thought that
the MLC was the minimum result required to save an alliance with Jean-Pierre Bemba could change
the face of an Inter-Congolese Dialogue that began the balance of power with Rwanda and cause
badly, was poorly organised and expensive. It Kabila to withdraw his support for ALiR, even
allowed the peace process to move forward after perhaps for the Burundian rebels in the CNDD-
being blocked by the political and military FDD.
dimensions of the Lusaka accord, and also put an
end to the Congo’s marginalisation on the Keeping Joseph Kabila at the helm was Kinshasa’s
international scene. Over the last ten years, only real demand at the Inter-Congolese Dialogue.
Mobutu’s Zaire then Laurent Kabila’s DRC have The Sun City accord also gratified the personal
been subjected to a de facto embargo, making them ambitions of Jean-Pierre Bemba by offering him
easy prey for the expansionist appetites of the position of prime minister. But the accord also
neighbouring countries. The international achieved other important political results. Firstly, it
community, particularly the France-Belgium- represented a political victory for Kabila on the
United States troika, felt that it was time to put an issue of sovereignty. By winning the backing of
end to the disintegration of the country and to the MLC, the RCD-ML and the RCD-N, the
reduce the role of neighbouring countries in president could claim that he was including the
proportion to their size and strategic interests. The Equateur, the eastern province and a part of north
success of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue and Kivu in the governmental party, and thus
recognition of Joseph Kabila as head of state were symbolically re-unifying 60 per cent of the
necessary in order for Western governments to country. Moreover, this allowed him to squash the
resume normal diplomatic and economic relations anti-Kabila coalition and isolate Rwanda, which
with the DRC and for international donors to was perceived more clearly as the enemy of
resurrect international the aid that had been Congolese unity. Secondly, the Sun City accord
suspended under Mobutu and Kabila the elder. gave Kinshasa an undeniable military advantage.
Such were the objectives behind the troika’s efforts Not only would MLC soldiers be joining the ranks
to broker an agreement, even a partial one, at Sun of the FAC to become a far more powerful military
City. No sooner had the accord been signed, than force, but the zone occupied by Rwanda would be
the World Bank and the DRC government signed a officially encircled by hostile troops to the north,
loan agreement amounting to some 450 million west and south.
dollars to finance the budget and economic reforms
and 454 million dollars to fund the reconstruction Finally, the deal satisfied the Kinshasa-Luanda-
of social and economic infrastructures20. On 3 Kampala axis, which had emerged over time as the
May, the director general of the IMF, Horst driving force behind the peace process. Angola,
Koehler, was in Kinshasa, declaring that the IMF which had long been reluctant to accept Bemba
wished to “help the DRC overcome the difficult due to former connections of certain ex-Mobutists,
situation it has been faced with for so long,” MLC members, with UNITA, finally approved his
through a DDRRR (demobilisation, disarmament, return to Kinshasa in exchange for specific
repatriation, reintegration and resettlement) guarantees. First, that it would be in no-one’s
programme and a triennial programme based on interest to see political dinosaurs from the Mobutu
the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility era return to power, and that a new generation of
(PRGF)21. politicians, even the sons of Mobutist politicians,22
should be given priority in the new government.
20 22
La Référence plus, Kinshasa, 4 May 2002. Jean Pierre Bemba is the son of Saolona Bemba, an
21
IRIN, 3 May 2002. influential businessman under Mobutu.
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 8
This condition was strongly supported by the FAR.25 Yet no real guarantees have been put
Americans.23 Secondly, there was a clear forward to back up this ideal DDRRR scenario that
recognition that the accord would only stand up if might be sufficient to appease the conscience of
Bemba abandoned his presidential ambitions, and the West. Kabila’s so-called “partner” Angola,
did not use his men to overthrow a weakened despite clearly having the resources, has not taken
Kabila. Jean-Pierre Bemba had actually been heard control of the airstrips where small planes carrying
several times before and during the Dialogue provisions for the ALiR still take off and land in
comparing his military achievements to Kabila’s, the Kivus. Nor has it begun arresting genocide
and boasting that he was better suited to lead the suspects living in the capital Kinshasa, where it has
nation than the president. In exchange for its total police control, and transferring them to the
support, Uganda asked Angola to force Kabila to International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda
flush out his “hardliners” and especially his pro- (ICTR), as requested again in January by the
Zimbabwean entourage.24 tribunal’s registrar Adama Dieng. Finally, the
country has yet to demonstrate its potentially
Of course, the political achievements described decisive influence over the future of Congolese
above were a double-edged sword, a fact that affairs as a replacement for Robert Mugabwe’s
obviously weakens the accord. The Sun City Zimbabwe.
agreement is not rooted in a shared vision or a
common plan between its signatories. Simply Furthermore, the young age of the new generation
dividing up political posts and privileges is not of politicians, especially President Joseph Kabila,
enough to establish a “new political order in the provides no guarantees that one day the Congo will
Congo”. Mbusa Nyamwisi of the RCD-ML, Roger not slide back into a classic power structure such
Lumbala of the RCD-National and most as that used during Mobutu’s leadership. In other
representatives of the unarmed political opposition words, the construction of a central power base in
and civil society who gave their backing to the the capital, propped up by external aid and
framework agreement did so out of opportunism. international military and diplomatic support,
The accord offered them a political conversion, which has little real control over the country. It is
revenge against the Rwandans or quite simply a not impossible that a young Joseph Kabila, lacking
chance to return to Sun City with a post. For a solid political base and supported by the
certain members of the MLC, fatigue with the international community like Joseph Mobutu in
Gbadolite “forest” and the desire to return to their 1965, with no army of his own or the ability to
affairs in Kinshasa lent convenient impetus to the wield his authority over the country, might quickly
political imperative to “restore the integrity of the become complicit, even against his will, in
national territory”. Unfortunately, the distribution building exactly the same type of prebendary
of posts bore too great a resemblance to the 1991 police dictatorship in Kinshasa. It must be recalled
National Conference and echoed the failings of the that one of the major causes of the two wars in the
Mobutist system and its leisured political class. Congo was the abandonment of national structures
The rapid negotiation of a transition constitution – and the role of the state, and that it is only by
which is still ongoing – is no substitute for a real building strong institutions and a legitimate
vision for the future of the country. government that such a recurrence will be
prevented.
Moreover, as previously mentioned, the calculation
was based on the presumption that Jean-Pierre Moreover, although a formal consensus was
Bemba and Kabila’s allies would be able to boost reached by the external participants over
Kabila’s military presence with Angola’s support, neutralising the Mobutists, the price to be paid for
reduce Zimbabwean influence and allow the boosting Kabila’s power may be to hand back
government to abandon its reliance upon the ex- power to some of them. There are two reasons for
such a concern. If no agreement is reached with
Rwanda, Kabila’s government will need to rally all
the support it can muster. The wealthy former
Congolese backers, who boast a vast network of
23
ICG interviews, U.S. State Department participants and
observers of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue. Sun City,
April 2002.
24 25
ICG, Ugandan diplomats, 24 April 2002. ICG interview, U.S. State Department 15 April 2002.
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 9
political and business relations, would be a candidates for ministries and the management of
welcome crutch, all the more so because they are quasi-government companies. Olivier Kamitatu,
set on taking revenge on Rwanda after being who arrived in Kinshasa as soon as the accord was
overthrown and chased into exile in 1997. They signed, is already seeking teams for the eight MLC
have a bad reputation but would at least seem less ministers who will participate in the transition
criminal and embarrassing than the ex-FAR, which government. Having observed all this, the
the Kinshasa regime is still backing militarily to Ugandans now seem reluctant to see the
drive the APR out of Kivu. In such a scenario, it government up and running quite so quickly, and
would still be possible to claim, as did President are calling for the creation of a commission to
Kabila in a recent interview in Le Soir, that he is draw up a list of areas of agreement and
“opening the door to reconciliation.26” disagreement so as to keep the MLC – government
negotiations ticking and also play for time.
The other possibility is that Jean Pierre Bemba
could call on the same backers to bolster his own The Kinshasa government is also dubious of
power with respect to his burdensome patron, Bemba’s real intentions, and would doubtless
Uganda, or his partners and political adversaries, prefer a triangular relationship between itself, the
the government and the RCD, by resorting either to RCD and the MLC to a tête-à-tête with the MLC.
a putsch or to elections. Uganda’s objective for It increasingly favours the idea of re-examining the
supporting Sun City was obviously to come out Sun City accord in light of negotiations on the
from the dialogue a “winner” and to be seen as the transition constitution, which are due to take place
driving force behind an accord that allowed a in Matadi in the month of May.29 This wait-and-
peaceful political transition for the Congolese, see position could be motivated by the willingness
while at the same time teaching Rwanda a political to leave the door open to the RCD, but also by the
lesson.27 Uganda was evidently convinced that president’s unease at seeing some of his
Joseph Kabila’s weak political base meant that he prerogatives escape him, right at the time when he
would not pose a threat to the transition and that its himself is attempting to consolidate control over
protégé Bemba would be well-placed for the his government. In the same interview with Le
elections in two years’ time. At the same time, Soir, he claimed that he was not ready to share
however, the possibility of Bemba’s rapid rise control of the army, although the framework
thanks to his Congolese connections is agreement provides for the creation of a higher
embarrassing for the Ugandan leadership. council for defence.30 Bemba himself is concerned
Relations between the MLC and Uganda have about his own personal safety, and has requested a
changed since the Ugandan army put a check on praetorian guard of some 3,000 men for his return
Bemba’s military ambitions. Museveni also to Kinshasa.
increased the number of rebel groups under his
protection, and justified this by saying that: “a Nevertheless, the two partners seem intent on
good hunter rears many hunting dogs because he setting up their government and the transitional
cannot know in advance which one will be the national assembly first, and negotiating with
best.”28 Rwanda afterwards. Kabila and Bemba have each
written a letter to President Mbeki requesting him
It is clear that the MLC, which took the lion’s to take note of the new dynamics that have
share in the Sun City accord, is keen to set up the emerged since the Sun City talks, and to agree to
transition government as quickly as possible so it change the framework of negotiations.31 In their
can establish itself in the country before the letters, they state that the new government will be
principle of power-sharing is called into question. installed on 15 June and invite Mbeki to assist in
In Kinshasa, Jean-Pierre Bemba’s father, Bemba mediating bilateral negotiations with Rwanda. The
Saolona, has already begun interviewing future Congolese government also called on the RCD to
26
President Kabila’s interview with the newspaper Le
29
Soir, 3 May 2002. Le Potentiel, 4 May 2002.
27 30
ICG interview with representatives of the Ugandan Interview with President Kabila, Le Soir, 3 May 2002.
31
government, 10 May 2002. The letter from President Kabila was handed to
28
“M7’s dog that broke away from the Pack”, Charles president Mbeki to by the minister Katumba on 7 May
Onyango-Obbo, The East African, 29 April 2002. 2002.
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 10
“take the leap towards nationalism with a view to security interests motivated by the 1994 genocide
becoming a signatory of the accord,” but at the and the existence of a threat from the ex-FAR and
same time accused Rwanda of reinforcing its the Interahamwe in the Congo. Now, the presence
troops in the RCD-occupied territories.32 of more than 25,000 ALiR33 soldiers in the Congo
continues to pose an undeniable security problem
In this critical phase of the peace process it is for Rwanda and the Kagame regime, especially
essential that the international community promote since these soldiers are increasingly courted by the
clear principles of good governance and encourage Hutu and Tutsi government opponents. However,
the participants to commit to upholding them. since 1996, other interests, both economic and
From this perspective, the objective is clearly not political, have cropped up in addition to the
to provoke a systematic witch-hunt of Mobutists. Rwandan presence in the Congo. Consequently,
Politicians, businessmen or top civil servants who Kigali has come to view the Kivus as a crucial area
served under the Mobutu regime and now hold to control and hold onto at any cost, ignoring the
positions of responsibility are not necessarily an hatred that this policy may incite.
enemy of good governance in the Congo.
Moreover, the country will not be able to do At first, the RCD was quick to criticise the Sun
without the skills and experience of a large number City accord, alleging that the agreement was the
of professionals from the Mobutu era. For result of foreign manipulation and a coup d’état
example, a number of young FAZ officers who against the Lusaka accords. It called for an
were trained abroad have recently been promoted immediate return to Sun City and the continuation
to the FAC headquarters in the hope that they can of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue under the auspices
take charge of reforming the army. The of the Masire facilitation team. It also immediately
international community should nevertheless make formalised the alliances established during the
sure that the struggle for democratisation that dialogue and created the Alliance for the
began in the 1990s is not completely forgotten. Preservation of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue
Certain people, both soldiers and politicians, are (ASD), which brought together the RCD, the
the symbols of a disgraceful past, the practices of Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS)
which should never be allowed to reoccur. The headed by Etienne Tshisekedi, the “Dynamic for a
Congo is too badly in need of effective resource Neutral Transition” headed by Raphaël Katebe
management to see its riches squandered, as in the Katoto (DPTN), the Congolese/Lumumba National
past. In the same vein, it is vital not to confuse Movement (MNC/L) headed by François
state authority with a police regime. The Congo Lumumba, the Lumumbist Progressive Movement
needs a legitimate administrative and political (MLP), and the Party for a New Society (RNS),
system, which is recognised as such by the whole among other parties. The creation of the ASD was
population, and not a harsh police regime that an attempt to harness the legitimacy of those who
monitors the political activities of the unarmed were traditionally opposed to Mobutu and to hide
opposition or civil society. Such clear principles behind a legalistic and formalistic attitude as the
for good governance must be promoted and defender of the Lusaka accords. Such an attitude,
maintained by the international community at all moreover, left the door wide open to all those who
costs. were unhappy with, and felt excluded from, the
Sun City accord. It is noteworthy in this respect
that all the leaders of this alliance were candidates
B. THE “PAX RWANDANA” OPTION for president or prime minister: Tshisekedi
(UDPS), Katebe Katoto (DPTN), François
Although the Bemba/Kabila scenario carries the Lumumba (MNC/L), Ruberwa (RCD).
risk of incomplete negotiations and a return to all-
too-familiar patterns, the alternative proposed by Realising that its strategy was not working, the
the RCD and its Rwandan ally does not offer much RCD then declared that it was ready to accept
more hope for peace. Initially, the Rwandan Kabila and to negotiate under a reduced team with
strategy in the Congo was certainly governed by presidents Mbeki, Mwanawasa of Zambia and
32 33
"Kinshasa accuses Rwanda of reinforcing its troops in The April 2002 MONUC report on the armed groups
eastern DRC", AFP, 11 May 2002. indicates that there are 12,000 ALiR in the Kivus.
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 11
Masire serving as mediators, but insisted that the has continually echoed around the Great Lakes
post of Prime Minister be reserved for the RCD. regions. Troop movements have either been
Unfortunately for the RCD, its attitude during the confirmed by MONUC or criticised by the
Sun City negotiations did not lend credibility to belligerents at every one of the strategic routes
this position, nor did its track record of agreements leading from the territory controlled by the RPA
with the Kinshasa government since Kabila came and the RCD-Goma to the territory controlled by
to power in January 2001.34 For a year, the the government, the MLC, the RCD-ML and the
international community encouraged direct RCD-National. From North Katanga, Maniema,
negotiations between President Kabila and Kasai, North Kivu to the eastern province – no
President Kagame, and between government and region has been spared.
RCD teams with two subjects on the agenda: the
disarmament of the ex-FAR, who were supported In order to try and explain the inflexibility of the
by the FAC, and power-sharing in Kinshasa. RCD in the power-sharing negotiations, their
President Kabila had even offered the RCD the objectives and negotiating strategies must be
position of Prime Minister before the first round of examined, as well as the situation in zones
the Addis Ababa dialogue, proposing Adolphe occupied by the RCD and the RPA. First, in terms
Onusumba, president of the RCD, for the post. of security aspects, the RCD’s position is clearly
However, the Congolese Tutsi minority in the influenced by the Rwandan position on the issue of
RCD and their Rwandan allies refused, claiming disarming the ALiR. Rwanda has constantly asked
that it was up to them to choose a Prime Minister, the Kabila government to disarm the ALiR as a
not Kabila. The problem, in fact, was that the prerequisite to any negotiations whatsoever. The
RCD-Banyamulenge refused to let Onusumba, a Congolese government first wants a guarantee of a
native of Kasai, represent them. Prior to the Rwandan withdrawal before giving “this gift to
opening of the Sun City dialogue, Paul Kagame Kagame.” Distrust continues to smoulder on both
and Katumba Mwanke, the Congolese Minister to sides.
the President’s Office, held a meeting that
produced no results. During the meeting, Paul Beyond this specific demand, however, the RCD
Kagame stated that he would not withdraw his negotiating position reflects a greater desire for
troops from the Congo35, with or without the control over Congolese political and military life.
dialogue. Their position aims to establish a new army made
up of troops from the three armies based on a quota
At Sun City, any number of strategies were system, and their objective is to take control of the
employed to weaken Joseph Kabila, be it public Ministry of Defence37. The RCD would thus be
discussions about his alleged Tutsi origins or the able to integrate part of its troops, some of whom
show of force by the RPA and the RCD in Moliro. were recruited just before Sun City, and which, for
Shortly after Sun City, James Kabarebe published the most part, is made up of Tutsis from North
an interview in Jeune Afrique, in which he talked Kivu, Rwandan Tutsis and Congolese Hutus, into
about Joseph Kabila’s “timidity”, his “lack of the Congolese army. They would also be able to
leadership skills”, the fact that he had taught stake a greater claim in national and local military
Kabila everything and that he had pushed Kabila command. The government is opposed to this
senior to appoint him deputy chief of staff of the solution. Referring to the Lusaka accords, it
army. Kabarebe even claims that Joseph Kabila proposes the integration of the rebels into the FAC
complained about his own entourage after the structure, which would allow it to maintain
death of his father.36 Moreover, since the command of the army and to ensure the break up
occupation of Moliro, the sound of marching boots of RCD units.38 Azarias Ruberwa responded to this
proposal in Sun City on Monday, March 25, saying
“we will not allow ourselves to be selected to send
34
See ICG Africa Report no. 38 of 14 December 2001,
“Disarmament in the Congo: Jumpstarting the DDRRR to
prevent further war.”
35 37
ICG interview with participants at the meeting, 24 April ICG interviews with members of the RCD-Goma,
2002. October 2001, and in Sun City, April 2002.
36 38
Interview with James Kabarebe: “Kabila is not fit to “Political and Legal Commission: still in an impasse”,
lead”, Jeune Afrique / L’Intelligent, No. 2155-2156, 29 Agence Information Dialogue (ADIA) newsletter,
April – 12 May 2002. www.cire.be, 3 April 2002.
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 12
a few troops to the FAC. We need to merge”.39 waves of immigration to the Kivus.42 Here again,
Officially, the RCD demand in terms of security is this measure would help strengthen the Rwandan
focused on monitoring the activities of the ex-FAR presence in the Kivus by allowing Rwandans or
in the Congo. In reality, this demand also serves to Rwandan allies to hold local government positions.
negotiate greater overall control over the security The RCD has already appointed many
machine. This objective corresponds to an old Banyarwanda in zones controlled by its troops.
Rwandan plan, dating back to 1996, when James Furthermore, the ex-FAR Hutus who have been
Kabarebe was appointed chief of staff of the FAC, reintegrated into the RPA and those who will
with the objective being to set up a new army for benefit from the DDRRR program, at least 40,000
the DRC. Taking over the Ministry of Defence in all, are not necessarily welcome in Kigali at a
would ensure control over the military intelligence time when President Kagame is seeking to
services, the ability to monitor threats to Rwandan consolidate his power domestically. These Hutus
security, as well as greater access to economic could remain in the Congo and take advantage of
opportunities. This plan would also guarantee that its riches. A strong Hutu and Tutsi presence in the
allies remained in the FAC, with whom Rwanda Kivus would give Rwanda more control over the
could cooperate in the Kivus, and the zones that economy, in particular, coltan mining and the
border Rwanda. agricultural resources in the Kivus.
The second objective of the negotiations is to lead The three objectives all lead to the same
the Congolese to accept immediate federalism. The interpretation: the Inter-Congolese Dialogue
RCD has already established a provincial assembly should result in the establishment of a local
in North and South Kivu and supports “immediate government favourable to neighbouring Rwanda,
implementation of a federal system throughout the and even the legalisation of the Rwandan influence
Congo.”40 Of course, federalism means sharing in the Kivus. The alliance formed after Sun City
resources with the provincial authorities. The RCD seems to be following the same logic, by extending
is especially greedy in this respect. Within the this alliance strategy to local politicians in Kasai
legal and political commission, the RCD’s vision and Katanga. The ASD with Etienne Tshisekedi,
of a new political order revolved around a federal François Lumumba and Raphaël Katebe Katoto,
system of 26 provinces, with 40% of the budget who refused to support the MLC-government
allocated to the central government, 50% to the framework agreement, bears the seeds of
states and only 10% allocated to equalisation!41 At federalism. Under this scenario, the South Katanga
the same time, since the signing of the Lusaka native Katebe Katoto, who is already suspected of
cease-fire and the obligation to transform the war having fomented an attempted putsch against
strategy into a strategy of intensive military Joseph Kabila in September 2001, along with the
occupation, Rwanda has been actively seeking out Etienne Tshisekedi’s Luba from Eastern Kasai, and
politicians who can act on its behalf and with François Lumumba’s Mutetela from eastern Kasai,
whom it can form an economic partnership to could act as privileged allies. Any separatist or
exploit the resources. Rwanda has encouraged the regional uprising backed by the RPA’s power
emergence of the movement in North Kivu headed would considerably weaken Joseph Kabila.
up by Victor Ngezayo, a wealthy businessman who Nevertheless, this strategy is also a recipe for
is now trying to rally together all the Congolese disaster, since it attempts to renew ties with the
who reject RCD authority but who are willing to Katanga, Kasai and Kivu separatists from the
negotiate the Rwandan presence with Kivutians. 1960s but does not have the resources to bring the
entire population of these provinces into the
The third objective is to obtain dual citizenship for project. Katebe Katoto, a native of Lubumbashi,
the Rwandan Hutu and Tutsi minorities who have would only be able to rally a portion of South
been transplanted to the Congo in the successive Katanga, and would necessarily be opposed to the
Balubakat of North Katanga, represented by
minister Mwenze Kongolo, who are in power in
Kinshasa and are supported by Zimbabwe. He
39
ADIA newsletter, March 25, 2002.
40
“The RCD Rebels Want Peace and a New Political
Order”, AFP, 22 February 2002.
41
Assessment report, 5th week of the Inter-Congolese 42
“The Citizenship Issue, A Key Debate in the Inter-
Dialogue, Berci, March 2002. Congolese Dialogue”, AFP, 21 February 2002.
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 13
would also be opposed to the ex-Katanga tigers Forces Front (FRF) headed up by Müller
from South Katanga, who are supported by Ruhimbika, a munyamulenge Kigali opponent
Angola. Etienne Tshisekedi, from Eastern Kasai, is since the beginning of the second war in the
also opposed to the Batetela from Eastern Kasai, Congo. The Munyamulenge leader rejects in
who are represented in Kinshasa by minister particular the RPA occupation of the Kivus,
Léonard She Okitundu. denounces its acts of violence and is calling for the
mobilisation of Kivutians of all stripes against the
The RCD and Rwandan calculation for the Inter- war of aggression. Since 1997, many
Congolese Dialogue is therefore simple. Either the Banyamulenge have, in fact, felt betrayed by the
maximalist positions adopted at Sun City secure RPA due to the RPA’s purging of Banyamulenge
the aforementioned results for the RCD, or the from Rwandan units and the plans to permanently
dialogue revives regionalist dynamics, prevents occupy the Kivus that they attribute to Rwanda.
lasting reunification of the Congo and sinks the For them, these plans have become a much greater
country into general chaos, thereby justifying factor of insecurity than the traditional hostility
Rwandan occupation of the two Kivus for several from their Bavira, Babembe and Bafulero
years to come. neighbours, against whom they know how to
defend themselves.
Unfortunately, this ambitious strategy is just as
unacceptable as it is likely to fail. Rwanda has had After failed attempts involving the Burundian
a poor track record in the Congo, especially in the authorities to mediate between the RCD and
Kivus. Two successive wars in 1996 and 1998, Masunzu, the RPA decided at the beginning of
major human rights violations, violent occupation, April to take direct action and to regain control of
its exploitation of Congo’s natural resources the high plains of South Kivu. At present, there are
through force, and above all, contempt and no reliable figures as to the exact death toll caused
ongoing humiliation have turned the Congolese by the fighting. However, the three-week campaign
against Rwanda and the Tutsis in particular. The was not enough for the RPA to take full control of
objective of establishing federalism, dual the situation and the sounds of heavy artillery fire
citizenship or creating a new army is facing could still be heard from Uvira at the end of April.
resistance from the Congolese, who do not want The RPA suffered losses and several dozen
the terms of their political system to be dictated to wounded were allegedly evacuated from
them while the RPA continues to exploit and Minembwe directly to the hospital in Bukavu.
occupy the Congo. In fact, Rwanda’s goal of Moreover, in the middle plains, the alliance
establishing a zone of Rwandan influence is between Masunzu and the Mai Mai commander
thwarted by its own occupation strategy, which from Uvira, Nyakabaka, proved to be especially
unites the Congolese. This occupation seems to dangerous for the RPA and RCD soldiers, who
have done more for Congolese nationalism in six were caught in the crossfire. Recently, the latter
years than the thirty years of Mobutu rule. seem to have regained control of the strategic
routes leading from the high plains. However, the
Moreover, the fiasco of the RCD and Rwanda in involvement of Hutu soldiers in the military
the Congo goes well beyond the mere failure of the operations was perceived by the Banyamulenge as
Inter-Congolese Dialogue in Sun City. Rwanda’s an unbearable humiliation, not only because this
ally, the RCD, only exists politically by virtue of meant that Rwandan Tutsis were not doing the
its signature on the Lusaka accords. Furthermore, Banyamulenge the honour of fighting for them, but
its political base is splintering: part of the because the Hutu occupation of the high plains was
Banyamulenge minority in South Kivu, whose deemed to be true colonisation. No matter what the
survival against the “genocidaire forces” has often case, this blatant dent in the credibility of the RPA
been presented by Kigali as an additional reason as the defender of the Tutsi minority in the Congo
for its presence in the Congo, is openly rebelling could only convince Kigali to rid itself of the RCD,
against the RCD. One week before the dialogue, which was incapable of garnering any popular
Masunzu, a munyamulenge officer who deserted legitimacy, even among the Banyamulenge, and to
the RCD forces, launched a military operation find other Congolese allies.
against the RCD garrison that controlled the
Minembwe airport in South Kivu. Masunzu is The Banyamulenge example is suggestive of
allegedly the military leader of the Federalist Rwanda’s inability to form lasting alliances with
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 14
the Congolese. The Congolese in the AFDL, under Congolese state under Mobutu has lead to a total
Laurent Kabila, rejected Rwandan domination disintegration of the political, economical and
once they got to Kinshasa. Since 1998, the RCD social environment of the country, especially in
has split into several different movements which some of the outlying regions far from the central
have all gone off in search of other sponsors. The government such as the Kivus, Ituri or Katanga. In
leadership of the RCD-Goma has changed hands some cases, this deterioration has caused violent
three times in three years and currently there are conflicts, such as the ethnic cleansing of the
six RCD factions, which means the original core is Baluba by the South-Katangans in Lubumbashi in
melting away.43 Contacts with Mai Mai groups or 1991 or the cleansing of the Banyarwanda in
traditional Kivu leaders never produced a lasting Masisi in 1993. These local conflicts worsened
agreement with the Rwandan government. when the two successive wars in the Congo
Rwanda’s obsession with security, its militaristic complicated them by increasing the number of
ideology and its desire to resolve domestic political armed parties, the numer of available weapons and
problems by force and by instrumentalising the the number of opportunities to exploit and gain
Congo has prevented it from accurately analysing power by force.
the political situation and the interests of its
Congolese allies. Any satisfaction with the “Pax In the Kivus, a dozen Mai Mai groups are mixed in
Rwandana” in the Kivus or in Kinshasa would be a with the armed Rwandan Hutu groups of the ALiR
guarantee of chaos for the Congo. and the Burundian Hutu groups of the FDD. The
RCD and RPA leadership together is unable to
control either group, particularly as both groups are
C. THE OVERSIGHTS OF SUN CITY mining the same coltan and are selling each other
arms. In South Kivu the Banyamulenge now have
The Kabila-Bemba and the “Pax Rwandana” their own rebel group, as mentioned above. In
scenarios are both scenarios by default, one Ituri, the conflicts between the Hema and the
drawing its centre of gravity from the west and the Lendu over land and natural resources have been
other from the east. They are scenarios by default fuelled by the interests of local shopkeepers and
because neither one proposes a credible solution to Ugandan army officers, and the appearance of
the two major causes of the Congolese conflict: the mercenary militias who are hiring out their
lack of a nation state and the consequences of the services to the shopkeepers. In theory, this territory
Rwandan genocide. They are also default scenarios is controlled by the RCD-ML with backing from
because the Inter-Congolese Dialogue was Uganda. However, the distrust between Mbusa
designed to transfer the military battle to the Nyamwisi and John Tibasiima within the RCD-
political arena and to be an obligatory and ML, which reflects the conflicts of interest
superficial formality in order to obtain a post and between the Nande and Hema communities, has
not as a true strategy for rebuilding Congolese already led to serious incidents. The result of this
authority throughout the country. It should be fragmentation is advanced militarisation of the
noted that every leader in the Congo since the society and the emergence of an economy of war,
assassination of Patrice Lumumba has come to destroying all civil authority.
power and maintained power thanks to foreign
support. As the country is not “organised,” it is Rebuilding local government obviously requires a
logical that the regional and international war of resolution of the conflict in Kinshasa. However,
influence in the Congo continue. the restructuring of the national government
throughout the DRC should automatically be
1. Local Conflicts accompanied by a process of local reconciliation
and a dialogue between the national authorities and
The Lusaka accords make no mention of local protagonists in the local conflicts. Power sharing in
conflicts and the need to rebuild both national and Kinshasa should not come at the expense of
local government. Yet the breakdown of the maintaining the warlords in the eastern part of the
country, and should include clear and credible
terms for restoring civilian order and authority in
43
the country.
RCD-Goma, RCD-Kisangani, RCD-ML, RCD-NL,
RCD-Original and RCD-Authentic, with the latter two
appearing during and after Sun City.
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 15
Congolese transition. In particular, it must win the IV. CONCLUSION: MOVING BEYOND
support not only of the foreign belligerents, but LUSAKA WHILE ADHERING TO
also of the five parties to the dialogue. THE PRINCIPLES
results in a pact of non-aggression between dynamics of reconciliation into gear between the
Rwanda and the DRC. Kabila will not abandon the Congolese communities that have been traumatised
ALiR until he is sure that his power is guaranteed by the war. However, in some of the more urgent
and his country liberated, and Kagame will not cases, such as in Ituri or in the Kivus, the people
demilitarise the Congo until he has concrete proof need urgent humanitarian assistance.
of goodwill on the part of the Congolese
government. The creation of a buffer zone Consequently, any candidate for office in Kinshasa
patrolled by joint Rwandan-Burundian-Ugandan- must be forced to immediately contribute to
Congolese units in order to ensure the security of providing relief to the people in the zones he or she
Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda, as proposed by the controls. It is urgent that this forgotten chapter of
Security Council during the latest meeting of the the Lusaka accords and the power sharing
joint security committee in Luanda, is only a last agreement be written. A truce between the Mai
resort. Unless the United Nations imposes a Mai leaders and the Banyamulenge in the Kivus,
mandate of forced disarmament, these patrols will and the Hema and the Lendu in Ituri must be
not be a lasting solution to Rwanda’s security negotiated and any new attempt at political
problem and will not allow for the definitive manipulation by the various factions of the DRC,
withdrawal of Rwandan troops from the Congo. It the government, Uganda or Rwanda must be
is crucial that the Congolese government take the punished. To this end, a team specialised in
initiative and start by handing over a symbolic mediation and local conflict resolution must be put
number of genocidaires to the ICTR, and together without haste within the MONUC.
immediately suspend all deliveries of arms and
ammunition to the ALiR in the Kivus. In so doing, The Congolese cannot ignore the fact that the
the government would prove that it is ready to take fundamental source of the conflicts and the
responsibility for the sovereignty it is demanding. economic and social breakdown of their country is
linked to the management of their resources. This
issue lies at the heart of the conflicts in the Kivus
B. RESTORING THE AUTHORITY OF THE and Ituri and must be taken into consideration in
STATE AND GUARANTEEING GOOD the negotiations on power sharing between the
GOVERNANCE parties to the dialogue and in those leading to full
withdrawal of foreign troops. Local, regional and
The issue of security in the Congo is not limited to national governance is crucial in order to bring an
the DDRRR of the so-called “negative” forces. The end to the three dimensions of the conflict. The
Congo is currently undergoing a drastic crisis in “Congolese Far West” must give way to a system
terms of State authority, which is fostering crime of healthy economic competition, where the use of
and social destruction throughout the whole force, corruption and intimidation to extract the
country. Warlords who control parts of the country’s riches are no longer the norm. This
country’s natural resources are taking the destiny system must necessarily be open to the Congo’s
of entire regions into their hands on a daily basis. neighbours and be just as advantageous for local,
The stakes of peace in the Congo include the regional and national economic operators.
restoration of local political and administrative
power that is recognised by the people as being
legitimate and that works on behalf of the people. C. IMPLEMENTING A NEW SYSTEM OF
MEDIATION
To this end, the international community needs to
be prepared to make a humanitarian, economic and Conscious of the military threat that the complete
police investment, which would lessen insecurity isolation of Rwanda represents, the international
and jumpstart the rural economy. In order to community may be tempted to halt implementation
become legitimate partners of the international of the MLC-government framework agreement and
community, local governments must be elected, to take the time to convince Rwanda and the DRC
independent from the power rivalries between the to come back to the negotiating table under a
warlords in Kinshasa. Local elections must be seen system of mediation that has not changed.
as a high-priority objective for the transition, even However, neither Angola, Uganda nor Zimbabwe
higher than the rehabilitation of infrastructures or will tolerate the signing of a political agreement
any other major project, so as to quickly move the without being consulted first. A preliminary
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 18
agreement between the foreign belligerents is realignment of Congolese and foreign belligerents,
required before any new negotiations between the while acknowledging the fact that Kigali is the last
Congolese can be resumed. The pressure applied to country still defending its security interests and
Rwanda by using negotiation dynamics in which it that its concerns cannot be ignored.
risks being excluded must also be maintained. If
this dynamic is broken, Kigali will be justified in The most appropriate format and type of mediation
feeling that at any rate, there can be no political to reach a true peace agreement must be
agreement without Rwanda and will attempt to buy determined now as a matter of urgency. The
time. facilitation team headed up by former president
Ketumile Masire proved to have too many
The current rumours of plans to establish an weaknesses to be given this task. South African
alternative government in Kisangani made up of president Thabo Mbeki also lost part of his
the various political forces remaining in Pretoria credibility when he tried to manoeuvre the
fall under this scheme. This new diversion could negotiations during the final week in order to place
allow Kigali to buy time, to counter attack the the priority on Rwanda’s security interests.
government-MLC framework agreement and to However, South Africa, the host country for the
further put off the deadline for withdrawal of its dialogue and the regional and international
troops from the Congo. The international guarantor of Rwanda’s security, has to be actively
community must not give Rwanda the opportunity involved in this mediation and Ketumile Masire
to develop such delaying tactics. However, may be asked to give his blessing to the results.
pressure and threats are not enough to prevent Yet, as the future president of SADC and the
Rwanda from doing so. The international OAU, South Africa now needs to establish its
community must also demonstrate its neutrality and its ability to truly contribute to
determination to thoroughly resolve the problems finalising the negotiations by obtaining the
in the Congo. mandate to do so from all the Congolese and their
natural rivals in southern Africa, which are Angola
The DRC must now negotiate that which it has and Zimbabwe, without challenging the results
always claimed to be its only concern, namely the obtained from the Kampala-Luanda axis.
scope of the powers and responsibilities to be
attributed to the various transition institutions in Ideally, a high calibre special envoy of the UN
order to meet the security needs of the Secretary-General should be appointed as quickly
Banyamulenge minority and to ensure that a new as possible to take over the process and provide
dictatorship is not created. A message along these coordination of the various elements of the peace
lines must be clearly sent to the DRC and to its process, which up to now has been lacking. The
mentors. However, the government-MLC mandate of this envoy should be to support the
framework agreement can only be transformed into application of an inclusive political agreement and
a peace agreement if the negotiations continue to ensure coordination between the activities of the
under a mediator who knows how to manipulate MONUC and those of the panel on the illegal
the carrot and the stick. Angola and Uganda cannot exploitation of natural resources in the DRC. The
be left in charge of setting up a government in envoy could also cooperate with ICTR
Kinshasa and continuing the negotiations. investigators and begin preparing the structure and
Impartial mediation must be reintroduced into the the specifications for a standing regional
negotiations in order to reassure the DRC and conference on security in the Great Lakes, which at
Rwanda that an agreement will not be reached at the end of the peace process, would ensure
their expense. This mediation team must succeed cooperation and guarantee that the Congo applies
the Masire team and continue the work begun by the principles of good neighbourliness to all its
President Mbeki, while also taking into account the neighbours and that these neighbours apply the
lessons learned from the Sun City failure. Indeed, same principles among themselves. The outcome
negotiations must be played out as much between of the peace process, the full and definitive
Luanda, Kampala, Harare and Kigali, as between withdrawal of foreign troops from the Democratic
Kinshasa, Gbadolite and Goma, while also Republic of Congo, must be reinforced by the
preserving representation from the unarmed implementation of a permanent mechanism for
political opposition and civil society. In addition, security and defence cooperation between the
the negotiations must take into account the Congo and its neighbours. Only this type of
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 19
mechanism, bolstered by good neighbour peace process must be revived before negotiations
agreements providing security for the Congo and flounder again or before the Congo plunges into
its neighbours, can guarantee that the DRC will not widespread chaos.
once again become a source of destabilisation for
its neighbours or a victim of their domestic Brussels/Nairobi, May 14, 2002.
problems, as in the past. The shortcomings of the
Lusaka accords must be overcome now and the
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 20
APPENDIX A
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 21
APPEDNIX B
ACRONYM LIST
AFDL: Alliance of Democratic Forces for MCL: Congo Liberation Movement. Rebel
Liberation. A rebel movement that Rwanda movement launched in August 1998 under
and Uganda launched against Mobutu Sese the patronage of Uganda and led by Jean-
Seko in October 1996 under the leadership of Pierre Bemba.
Laurent-Désiré Kabila.
MNC-Lumumba:
ALiR: Rwandan Liberation Army. Hutu rebel Congolese-Lumumba National Movement.
movement inherited from the ex-Rwandan Lumumbist party headed by François
Armed Forces and the Interahamwe who Lumumba.
committed the 1994 genocide of the Tutsis.
MPR-fait privé:
CODEP: Collective of Pluralist Democratic Peoples Movement for the Revolution-Fait
Opposition. Pro-government Congolese privé. Legacy of the pro-Mobutu party led by
political platform led by Raymond Catherine Nzuzi wa Bombo.
Tshibanda.
PALU: United Lumumbist Party. Congolese political
CPP: People's Power Committees. Political party led by Antoine Gizenga.
mobilisation structures of Korean inspiration
created by Laurent-Désiré Kabila. PDSC: Christian Social Democrat Party. Congolese
political party led by André Boboliko.
DCF: Federalist Christian Democracy. Congolese
political party under Venant Tshipasa. RCD: Congolese Alliance for Democracy. Rebel
movement launched in August 1998 under
FAC: Congolese Armed Forces. DRC’s regular the patronage of Rwanda to overthrow
army. Laurent-Désiré Kabila, which then split into
6 different RCD factions.
FAR: Rwandan Armed Forces (army of Juvénal
Habyarimana). RCD-Goma:
Congolese Alliance for Democracy-Goma.
FAZ: Zairian Armed Forces (army of Mobutu). Faction of the rebel RCD movement based in
Goma and led by Adolphe Onusumba, under
FLC: Congo Liberation Front. Political movement Rwandan patronage.
that was supposed to bring together the
various rebel factions under the patronage of RCD-Kisangani:
Uganda (MLC, RCD-ML). Congolese Alliance for Democracy-
Kisangani. Faction of the rebel RCD
FONUS: Innovative Forces for Union and Solidarity. movement formerly based in Kisangani and
Congolese political movement headed by led by Prof. Wamba dia Wamba. Currently
Joseph Olenghahkoy (RCD-Kisangani). on the verge of disappearing.
FSD: Front for the Survival of Democracy. Pro- RCD-ML: Congolese Alliance for Democracy-
government Congolese political movement Liberation Movement. Faction of the rebel
led by Eugène Diomi Ndongala. RCD movement headed by Mbusa Nyamwisi
and based in Isiro under Ugandan patronage.
HCR-PT: High Commission of the Transition
Republic-Parliament. Legislative body put RCN-NI: Congolese Alliance for Democracy-National.
into place by Mobutu after the Sovereign Faction led by Roger Lumbala.
National Conference of 1992-1994.
ROC: Congolese Opposition Rally. Pro-
MSDD: Solidarity Movement for Democracy and government political platform led by Z’ahidi
Development. Congolese political party led Ngoma.
by Christophe Lutundula.
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 22
UDPS: Union for Democracy and Social Progress. FRUONAR: United Front of the Non-Armed Opposition.
Congolese political party led by Etienne Platform of the government opposition based
Tshisekedi. in Kivu and led by Rwakabuba Shinga.
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 23
APPENDIX C
The International Crisis Group (ICG) is a private, ICG’s international headquarters are at Brussels,
multinational organisation committed to with advocacy offices in Washington DC, New
strengthening the capacity of the international York and Paris and a media liaison office in
community to anticipate, understand and act to London. The organisation currently operates
prevent and contain conflict. eleven field offices with analysts working in nearly
30 crisis-affected countries and territories and
ICG’s approach is grounded in field research. across four continents.
Teams of political analysts are located within or
close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or In Africa, those locations include Burundi,
recurrence of violent conflict. Based on Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo,
information and assessments from the field, ICG Sierra Leone-Liberia-Guinea, Somalia, Sudan and
produces regular analytical reports containing Zimbabwe; in Asia, Indonesia, Myanmar,
practical recommendations targeted at key Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan and
international decision-takers. Afghanistan; in Europe, Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo,
Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia; in the Middle
ICG’s reports and briefing papers are distributed East, Algeria and the whole region from Egypt to
widely by email and printed copy to officials in Iran; and in Latin America, Colombia.
foreign ministries and international organisations
and made generally available at the same time via ICG raises funds from governments, charitable
the organisation's Internet site, www.crisisweb.org. foundations, companies and individual donors. The
ICG works closely with governments and those following governments currently provide funding:
who influence them, including the media, to Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France,
highlight its crisis analyses and to generate support Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands,
for its policy prescriptions. Norway, the Republic of China (Taiwan), Sweden,
Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
The ICG Board – which includes prominent
figures from the fields of politics, diplomacy, Foundation and private sector donors include The
business and the media – is directly involved in Ansary Foundation, The Atlantic Philanthropies,
helping to bring ICG reports and recommendations Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Carnegie
to the attention of senior policy-makers around the Corporation of New York, Charles Stewart Mott
world. ICG is chaired by former Finnish President Foundation, Ford Foundation, John D. and
Martti Ahtisaari; and its President and Chief Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, John Merck
Executive since January 2000 has been former Fund, Open Society Institute, Ploughshares Fund,
Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans. Ruben and Elisabeth Rausing Trust, Sasakawa
Peace Foundation, and William and Flora Hewlett
Foundation.
June 2002
Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process
ICG Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Page 24
APPENDIX D
AFRICA
LIBERIA
Liberia: The Key to Ending Regional Instability, Africa
ALGERIA Report N° 43 24 April 2002
The Algerian Crisis: Not Over Yet, Africa Report N°24, 20 RWANDA
October 2000 (also available in French)
The Civil Concord: A Peace Initiative Wasted, Africa Report International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda: Justice
N°31, 9 July 2001 (also available in French) Delayed, Africa Report N°30, 7 June 2001 (also available in
Algeria’s Economy: A Vicious Circle of Oil and Violence, French)
Africa Report N° 36, 26 October 2001 (also available in “Consensual Democracy” in Post Genocide Rwanda:
French) Evaluating the March 2001 District Elections, Africa Report
N°34, 9 October 2001
BURUNDI Rwanda/Uganda: a Dangerous War of Nerves Africa
Briefing, 21 December 2001
Burundi: The Issues at Stake. Political Parties, Freedom of
the Press and Political Prisoners, Africa Report N°23, 12 SIERRA LEONE
July 2000 (also available in French)
Burundi Peace Process: Tough Challenges Ahead, Africa Sierra Leone: Time for a New Military and Political
Briefing, 27 August 2000 Strategy, Africa Report N°28, 11 April 2001
Burundi: Neither War, nor Peace, Africa Report N°25, 1 Sierra Leone: Managing Uncertainty, Africa Report N°35,
December 2000 (also available in French) 24 October 2001
Burundi: Breaking the Deadlock, The Urgent Need for a Sierra Leone: Ripe For Elections? Africa Briefing, 19
New Negotiating Framework, Africa Report N°29, 14 May December 2001
2001 (also available in French)
Burundi: 100 Days to put the Peace Process back on Track, SOMALIA
Africa Report N°33, 14 August 2001 (also available in
French) Somalia: Countering Terrorism in a Failed State, Africa
Burundi: After Six Months of Transition: Continuing the Report N° 45 23 May 2002
War or Winning the Peace, Africa Report N° 46, 24 May
2002 (also available in French) SUDAN
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO God, Oil & Country: Changing the Logic of War in Sudan,
Africa Report N°39, 28 January 2002
Scramble for the Congo: Anatomy of an Ugly War, Africa Capturing the Moment: Sudan's Peace Process in the
Report N°26, 20 December 2000 (also available in French) Balance, Africa Report N° 42, 3 April 2002
From Kabila to Kabila: Prospects for Peace in the Congo,
Africa Report N°27, 16 March 2001 ZIMBABWE
Disarmament in the Congo: Investing in Conflict
Prevention, Africa Briefing, 12 June 2001 Zimbabwe in Crisis: Finding a way Forward, Africa Report
N°32, 13 July 2001
Le dialogue intercongolais: Poker menteur ou négociation
politique ? Africa Report N° 37, 16 November 2001 (also Zimbabwe: Time for International Action, Africa Briefing,
available in English) 12 October 2001
Disarmament in the Congo: Jump-Starting DDRRR to Zimbabwe’s Election: The Stakes for Southern Africa,
Prevent Further War, Africa Report N° 38, 14 December Africa Briefing, 11 January 2002
2001
Storm Clouds over Sun City: The Urgent need to Recast the All Bark and No Bite: The International Response to
Congolese Peace Process, Africa Report N° 44, 14 May 2002 Zimbabwe’s Crisis, Africa Report N°40, 25 January 2002
(also available in French)
Zimbabwe at the Crossroads: Transition or Conflict? Africa
Report N° 41, 22 March 2002
BALKANS
KOSOVO
REGIONAL REPORTS
APPENDIX E
Chairman, Open Society Institute Former Minister of Interior, The Netherlands; former Mayor of
Amsterdam
Eduardo Stein
Former Foreign Minister of Guatemala
Pär Stenbäck Simone Veil
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Finland Former Member of the European Parliament; former French
Minister for Health
Shirley Williams
Thorvald Stoltenberg Former Secretary of State for Education and Science; Member
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Norway House of Lords
William O Taylor Grigory Yavlinsky
Chairman Emeritus, The Boston Globe Head of Yabloko (Liberal Democrat), Russian Duma
Ed van Thijn