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Quantitative Methods Used In this study, the Moving Average technique of Time Series Forecasting and Constraints Optimization

model are used to work out the optimal solution. 1.1 Time Series Forecasting A Time Series model explains a quantitative variable with regard to its past observations. It explores the historical trends and patterns (such as seasonality) of the time series involved; and predicts the future values based on the trends and patterns identified in the model. One of the popular techniques of Time Series Forecasting is Moving Averages. It provides a comprehensive approach for analyzing stationary time series such as stock market prices. Since Time Series model only require historical observations of a variable, it is less costly in data collection and model estimation. Investment managers use formal risk models to both predict the future and understand the past. Time Series are popular in many application areas such as Daily fluctuations of a stock market, scientific experiments, Medical treatments, Weather conditions and so on. Businesses often are interested in forecasting future values of a time series variable. If we could predict future values of the stock price accurately, we could become very wealthy investing in the stock market Methodology Application Stock Market data The main interest is to predict the timing of future events, ie. The points at which the stock will change the direction of its slope Stock prices are noisy and influenced daily by many factors

Financial Advisors have strong working relationships with their clients and give them advice and service to help manage their assets. As part of the customization … added analytic tools for asset allocation, stock selection and financial planning to emulate the sophisticated tools and processes used by the full-service firms. Consolidated trend amount major financial service providers. .. adjust the portfolios … more realistic revenue impact

2 Limitations The prediction of future prices from a time series of past raw stock prices has been recognized to be a very difficult problem. The long-term prediction is typically faced with growing uncertainties arising from various sources. the accumulation of errors and the lack of information make the prediction more difficult. For instance. . mutual funds. 1. bonds. and many factors leading to price fluctuations cannot be captured precisely or may be too difficult to be modeled.Asset services include stocks. such a time series may be noisy and nonstationary. The previous values and the current value of the time series are used as inputs for the prediction model. transactions of several other complex securities and products. Time series prediction problem is the prediction of future values based on the previous values and the current value of the time series.